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From July's +21,000 directly revised to -10,000, and August cut from 162,000 to 133,000, a total reduction of 60,000 over two months. September is even more extreme, reporting only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I just want to ask, what exactly happened in the US in September? Could the mid-September rate hike really have knocked the job market down directly? The effect is so immediate? Don't forget, the current Labor Statistics Bureau chief was newly appointed by Trump and only took office in mid-August, barely settled in before starting to drastically revise data? Once the data came out, US Treasury yields dropped in response, and US stocks hit new highs again. This pattern is exactly the same as in September: the media loudly shouts "no rate hike," but in the end, they hike anyway. This month might replay the same scenario, saying no hike verbally, but not stopping in action. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Following up on our previous study. Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory along the black ascending trendline, holding firm above its green bull market support band following the confirmation of a golden cross structure. However, while price action is printing higher highs along the black trendline, the RSI indicator is displaying lower highs beneath a black descending trendline, establishing a clear negative divergence. This divergence indicates weakening momentum and highlights the potenti📉 The first round of market activity after the Nonfarm Payroll data release has gradually cooled down, and market sentiment is beginning to return to rationality. BTC surged to around $87,600 in early trading but then retreated to around $85,400; ETH showed overall weakness, continuing to consolidate around $2,700. SOL was relatively strong, rising about 2%+, but trading volume did not significantly increase, and there is currently no sign of strong capital driving sustained momentum. From the market structure perspective, this rally looks more like short-covering and sentiment release following the macro data release rather than sustained active spot buying. Therefore, a pullback after a short-term spike is not surprising. There are no major events like the FOMC coming up, so the market is more likely to enter a phase of data digestion and range-bound oscillation. What really matters is not whether BTC can spike again today, but whether it can continue to hold above $85,000 over the weekend. The selling pressure near 85K has just been absorbed. If BTC can hold here, the previous breakout structure still warrants further observation; but if it falls back below 85K over the weekend, the validity of the previous breakout will need to be reassessed. 🔎 Key levels for the weekend: • BTC support: $84,800–$85,000 • Key lower zone: $83,800–$84,200 • Upper resistance: $86,500–$87,600 • ETH: watch the $2,680–$2,750 range • SOL: watch 118– $BTC
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls exploded.
The market expected 90,000, but the actual number was only 29,000. The previous value was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was directly revised from +21,000 to -10,000. A net downward revision of 60,000 over two months, with employment growth almost zero. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, also higher than the expected 4.1%.
This is not a slowdown; it is the prelude to a hard landing.
Before the data was released, the market had already cut the probability of an October rate hike from 70% a week ago to about 25%. After the data came out, Kalshi's market pricing forecast showed the probability of the Federal Reserve holding steady in October soaring directly to 85%.
The Fed's blade is temporarily sheathed.
The crypto market reacted very quickly. After the nonfarm payrolls were announced, BTC briefly broke through $87,000, and ETH stood above $2,750. Within 24 hours, ETH rose 2.82%, and BTC rose over 2%.
But the real signal is not in tonight's candlestick.
Looking back at yesterday, something interesting already happened. Bitcoin ETFs ended a streak of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, with a total of $3.1 billion in funds choosing to take profits and exit before the nonfarm payrolls. Institutions are reducing positions to cash out, while short-term speculative funds are stepping in to buy. ETF outflows, yet the coin price is rising.
Weak data, rate hike pause, staking lock-up, institutional accumulation. Four things resonated on the same night. Damn! The Blast project (Ethereum Layer 2) officially announced it will shut down the network.
The official statement on X said the project's initial goal was to build a self-sustaining chain serving users and developers. However, operating costs have exceeded the revenue generated by L2, and there is no economically sustainable path for the chain. Therefore, they decided to gradually shut down and prioritize the safe exit of assets.
The main arrangements are as follows:
Users are requested to withdraw all on-chain assets and balances in the Blast PWA back to the Ethereum mainnet.
Withdrawal waiting time will be shortened to 24 hours.
Before shutdown, Blast will first handle the Lido assets it holds, expected to take about a week. During this period, withdrawals will be temporarily unavailable, even though the waiting time has been shortened to 24 hours.
After the Lido asset exit is completed, withdrawals will resume with a 24-hour delay.
The deadline for withdrawals through the regular interface is October 26, 2026.
After the deadline, assets can still be withdrawn but require direct interaction with the Blast bridge contract on Ethereum L1; specific operation instructions will be announced before the deadline.
The official team apologizes to users and developers who supported the ecosystem and reminds to beware of impersonation accounts; the official account is @BLAST. According to reports, about 63.5 million USD in assets remain in its regulated bridge.Main focus $BTC | Strategy: Short by unloading the position first
$BTC current price 84,830, trading back and forth within the 82,500-85,633 range this week, the ceiling at 85,633 was pressed down twice — on 9/27 it touched 85,146 then pulled back quickly, on 9/30 it surged to 85,633 then closed with a long upper shadow and dropped back to 83,577. The market makers are very slick with their "flash steps" above, whoever chases longs ends up taking the hit. Direction: short between 85,400-85,633, stop loss at 86,400 (about 0.9% above the 9/30 high of 85,633), first target 83,500, second target 82,500 weekly low, 5x leverage. Reason in one sentence: two attempts to break the top were rejected twice, OI has been flowing out for four days about 270 million U, only replenished 240 million on 10/1 — some money returned but still short of full strength, resistance level shorting has a favorable risk-reward ratio. Last night I couldn't resist checking the market again
Just a glance made me want to close it
$BTC is still the same old story
Goes up one day, down two days
I was the earliest one trapped by it
Back then I knew nothing
Heard people say just hold on
When I held it, it dropped
When I sold, it slowly climbed back
Later a friend advised me to look at $ETH
Said this one is at least a bit more stable
I bought it and it just went sideways
So sideways it made me yawn every day
Made a breakfast's worth of profit and ran
After I left, it moved a bit again
Saying I wasn't upset would be a lie
Then I messed around on my own
Got into $SOL
Bought it and got stuck immediately
Stuck for almost two months
Every day opening my account showed red
The day I broke even I sold immediately
After selling, it surged again
I smiled a little
Deleted the app and reinstalled it
Now I only play with spare money
No contracts
No borrowing
No following tips
If I earn, I treat myself well
If I lose, I consider it tuition
I check at most twice a day
Sleeping well at night is better than anything
This thing isn't a path to get rich quick for ordinary people
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby
Don't put your life on the line#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 m stocks opened high and then fell, the positive non-farm payroll data was fully priced in, resulting in scalp trading; these 1000+ points are basically free spending for the National Day holiday, with both bulls and bears taking profits950,000 $SOL suddenly unstaked, and that's not a small number.
To conclude: I don't think this is a dump, but it definitely deserves attention.
An unknown wallet withdrew $SOL worth $116 million from staking at 11 PM last night.
Simply put, staking means locking coins to earn interest. Now, the person who locked them is actively unlocking, either preparing to move the funds or feeling it's not profitable to keep them locked.
The key point: looking at this single transaction alone, it can't be directly considered a sell-off.
What really needs to be watched is what happens next—if these coins continue to move to exchanges, then the selling pressure should be taken seriously.
Many project teams are also monitoring such large unstaking events because the staking amount of $SOL has always been an emotional indicator.
Before the money moves, it's all speculation.
At this point, I'm not rushing to make a judgment, but if you ask me whether to panic, honestly, I'd rather know where this wallet transfers the coins next.
Hasn't there been quite a few large unstaking events in the circle recently?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10% $SOL #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT
Leader has something to say
Today, the long position on Bitcoin was held at the 86000 level, and a short position was opened at 86500.
The logic for the long position is very clear. The non-farm payroll data was comprehensively below expectations, with a September increase of 29,000, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and wage growth of 3.0%, causing the rate hike expectations to cool down directly. Bitcoin was pulled up from around 83000, and the long position was held all the way to 86000.
Why reverse to short at 86500? This level is near the previous high resistance zone, and the positive impact of the non-farm data has already been priced in. After the data release, Bitcoin rose sharply, and short-term profit-taking is expected, making a pullback after the peak likely.
Stop loss is set at 87500; if it passes this, it indicates a strong bullish breakout, and it's best to cut losses and exit. The target is in the 84500 to 85000 range, where positions should be reduced, leaving the rest at breakeven. Position control is important; avoid heavy positions.
The short position logic is a short-term bet on a pullback, not a reversal. The positive effect of the non-farm data is fully reflected, and there is dense resistance above, so a short test is made. If wrong, lose 1000 points; if right, gain over 1000 points, which is a good risk-reward ratio. $BTC
Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, and stop losses must be set properly. Good luck. $ETH $ZEC Tonight at 20:30, the US non-farm payroll data will be released. It is lower than market expectations, reducing the probability of a rate hike, which is positive for gold $XAU
Gold has indeed shown the expected reaction, with the price breaking through the $4200 mark in one go, clearly showing a breakout trend following the macro direction.
But the strange thing is what happened afterward. After breaking through 4200, gold entered a correction, which is normal; but this correction kept falling all the way, and in the end even fell below the starting point. What does that mean?
What’s going on? Is there some unknown news about gold? Why can’t it rally despite such a big positive non-farm payroll report? Instead, it was quickly hammered down as soon as it went up...
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 0.36 ETH stolen, 1.4B validators exit: Linea Yield Boost says "money hasn't moved," but yields are already crippled
MetaMask Staking incident, the most surreal scene in the blockchain space: on-chain analysis estimates that the fee recipient for about 18 blocks was changed to a mixing address, stealing approximately 0.36 ETH in block rewards; as a result, MetaMask directly pushed the affected Ethereum validators into the exit queue, with external estimates of about 17,000 validators and 523,000 ETH (approximately 1.4 billion USD).
Linea immediately responded: validators supporting the Yield Boost vault exited for security reasons; the vault's funds and control remain unaffected, users' principal is intact, and withdrawal rights are not relinquished. $BTC $AAVE were below yesterday, with a daily doji candlestick, oscillating around 83000. Most in the crypto community are bearish. The day before yesterday, there was a sudden surge to 85800, then a rapid drop. I said at the time, you can confidently go long. I also explained the advantage of the way the 'dog whale' moves; you can check my previous posts. Yesterday I said not to be bearish; it will definitely go to 87000. This morning, seeing some weakness in the market, I placed a take-profit order at 84800, which triggered before the price went up. Then it oscillated above 86000 all day. I said this wave is stable; this is the real risk point. This wave might only hit a secondary high, so I decisively entered a short position to observe. If it can't break 86000 in the next couple of days, it means this wave is forming a double top, and a major crash is coming. This is the final 5th wave!!!The US only added 29,000 jobs in September
But why are Bitcoin and gold prices rising?
Last month, the US only added 29,000 jobs.
The expectation was 90,000.
Yet Bitcoin rose, and gold also went up.
The unemployment data looks bad, but the coins rose, isn't that ridiculous?
Short-term traders want to die, and those shorting want to die even more.
Think about it carefully, this is nothing new.
This is how the market plays now,
Bad data = central bank has to ease = coins will rise.
Good data means no one buys.
This logic is very counterintuitive and hard to understand.
To put it simply, what’s rising isn’t the economy, it’s because everyone is gambling that money will get cheaper.
Does this logic hold? Is this a good reason?
Here’s the problem: can this logic be used forever? No.
The first time bad news is good news, the second time still good news, but the third time it becomes bad news.
In other words: this is called "good news exhausted." Using bad news as good news can’t last long.
What you’re seeing now isn’t a signal, it’s inertia. It’s just that no one has reacted yet.
And here’s a harsher truth: those who were liquidated yesterday were the bears.
But think about it, were they wrong? Were they wrong?
No.
Employment is indeed weak, the economy is indeed cooling, debt is high,
They were just... too early.
Being one or two days early means losing your position and your money.
This is the harshest part of this market.
This is how I view the initial question. Nonfarm Payrolls Shock at 29,000: October Rate Hike Off the Table, BTC Retraces Breakout Level
Data: September added 29,000 nonfarm jobs, expected 84,000, less than one-third; unemployment rate 4.2%, rising for the first time in seven months; average hourly earnings up 0.1% month-over-month, no secondary inflation pressure. August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. The labor market is not cooling down, it’s stalling.
Transmission is very clear: weak nonfarm → rate hike expectations cool down → 10Y yield falls from 5.35% to 5.23% → dollar weakens → risk assets rise together. A classic "bad news is good news" scenario.
QQQ closed at 751.18, up 1.23%, hitting a 52-week high. The Nasdaq is the biggest beneficiary of the rate cut trade, with the longest duration and highest sensitivity to interest rates. But "bad news is good news" has limits: if conditions worsen next month, the narrative will shift from "rate cut trade" to "recession trade," and QQQ will be the first to be repriced.
Gold at 4,185, up 0.7%. Real rates falling plus safe haven demand (US-Iran tensions, French fiscal crisis) create a dual bullish case. But gains are restrained: since the 5,318 peak at the start of the year, it has been digesting and is down 11% year-to-date.
BTC: Broke through 85,518 during the day, surged to 87,220, then retreated to 85,556 in the evening, just retracing the breakout level. The 87,220 area is a supply zone before the September high of 87,397, so profit-taking is normal. The key is not the pullback but the level: 85,500–84,800 is the watershed; holding this means the breakout is valid, with targets at 87,397 and then 90,000; falling below means today’s gains are wasted.
Next: October 14 CPI, October 27–28 FOMC. October rate hikes are off the table; what remains to watch is whether this "weakness" is just right or the eve of a recession.Originally, everyone was waiting for the non-farm payrolls to give direction, but after the data was released, ETH did not experience the expected sharp decline. Instead, the market once rallied upward before returning to consolidation. Currently, ETH is repeatedly trading sideways around $2,750, with bulls and bears clearly locked in a tug of war. Although short positions remain, there is no obvious sign of concentrated short covering yet, and the price stubbornly refuses to fall. This kind of movement is putting increasing time pressure on the shorts. The latest non-farm payrolls show that US September non-farm employment increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of about 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data showed clear weakness, US Treasury yields fell, market expectations for further short-term rate hikes cooled, and risk assets received some support. Meanwhile, ETH itself has shown some notable divergence: the US spot Ethereum ETF has recently seen continuous outflows, with a net outflow of about $55.37 million on October 1, indicating that spot capital has not fully turned strong. So now ETH looks more like this: Weak news → price does not fall Shorts remain → but no trend-driven sell-off Bulls have not fully erupted → yet price holds at a key area The focus next is whether the $2,700–$2,750 range can continue to hold and whether the rebound can retake $2,800. If the price stubbornly refuses to fall, the cost and time pressure on shorts will gradually increase; conversely, if key support is lost, consolidation will continue.What? Scared again, can't control your hands, and want to run halfway, right? You want to run at the slightest pullback, what big things can you achieve?
Did you see the non-farm data? September added only 29,000 jobs, the expectation was 90,000, and the previous value was revised down by 60,000. The unemployment rate directly rose to 4.2%. As soon as the data came out, traders immediately cut their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from a high level to less than 30%.
This macro thunder is really breaking things apart this time.
$ETH price rose from around 2705 before the non-farm announcement to above 2747, with a 24-hour increase close to 2.3%. On the 1-hour level, the price has stood back above all short-term moving averages, with a bullish alignment intact. The first line of defense below is 2670, and 2630-2640 is a thicker support zone.
On the order book, there is indeed a sell wall around 2710, with the order volume accounting for 44% of the total volume of the top five sell orders, so a bit of short-term grinding is normal. But what kind of pullback is this? This isn't even a shakeout, at most it's just a breather at a high level. ETH has already risen 57% in Q3, digesting some profit-taking at this position is very healthy.
You are rock solid when losing a few hundred dollars, but panic and can't sleep when floating profit is just a few dozen dollars. The core problem is one: you have no plan and trade purely on emotion.
The structure is intact, the trend is unbroken, the non-farm data brought macro benefits, and you want to run? Hold your positions, set your stop loss properly, and leave the rest to the trend. The path to 4000 won't change direction because of today's few dozen points of fluctuation.Just checked my wallet,
and actually found a wallet with Blast @blast tokens $YOLO,
I have no idea how I got them.
Checked the price, worth $5,500 at TGE, now $25 ……
Thanks, I can get some KFC tomorrow.🤣Brothers, as soon as the nonfarm payroll data came out tonight, I was completely stunned.
US September nonfarm employment only increased by 29,000, while the expectation was 90,000, and the previous value was 162,000. This data is basically a cliff-like collapse. Once the data was released, BTC immediately surged like it took a stimulant, shooting up from around 83,000 to as high as 87,000 USD, rising over 3% intraday.
But me? I was holding a short position on BTC at 82,707, watching it rush to 85,456, with an unrealized loss of -84 USD, I was totally shocked. And that’s not even the most frustrating part, the most frustrating is DOGE.
My DOGE short was opened at 0.0922, but this damn DOGE went crazy along with BTC, directly soaring to 0.0947, with an unrealized loss of -47 USD. Usually it plays dead on the ground, but at the slightest movement it runs faster than anyone else. When going long it doesn’t rise, but when shorting it gets more aggressive than anyone.
Look at the liquidation data, it’s even more heartbreaking: in the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated 357 million USD, shorts accounted for 272 million, and BTC short liquidations were 145 million. In just ten minutes, 110 million USD of shorts were liquidated. This is not a market, this is a public execution of the bears.
What’s the most disgusting? The data is so bad, logically the economy is weak, risk assets should fall. But the market logic is completely reversed—poor employment means lower rate hike expectations, the Fed has to ease, so all the funds rush into crypto.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$ETH
$BTC $DOGE $XAU Gold has been weak recently, with lower lows. You can gradually buy in at 4140-4115. I've realized that with gold, you really can't hold a position too long; if you hold on after gaining forty or fifty points, the profit quickly disappears. Of course, the long-term outlook is still bullish on gold, but when trading contracts, it's best to take profits quickly and run. Securing profits and maintaining steady gains is the key!$ARB has retraced 91% from the 2.39 high. It fell back from a +46% weekly gain to 0.20, and even more painfully, third-party safety and compliance ratings gave it a zero — cheap for a reason.
Rating agencies gave ARB a zero score on safety and compliance; the SEC's stance and regulatory risks are all red flags; the L2 TVL inflow story can't stop token inflation emissions.
Transaction fees go to the sequencer and DAO treasury, holders only profit from price differences, with continuous annual unlock and sell pressure; the so-called value capture is still just an empty promise.
Safety red flags plus ongoing inflation, position capped at 30%. Hold at 0.185, reduce at break below 0.17. ARB isn't cheap, it's cheap to the point of being untrustworthy.Bitcoin Market Structure: Breakouts vs. Noise
A useful chart discussion asks three questions: Where did price move relative to its recent range? Did trading activity change? Did the move persist, or reverse?
These observations describe market behavior; they do not establish a guaranteed outcome. Context matters more than a single candle.
Educational content only. No price forecast or trade signal.The US and Iran are at it again, Brent crude oil has returned to $100, and Bitcoin surprisingly peaked at 87,350 today. Is this script reversed? Pharaoh directly said, according to the old almanac, when oil rises and US Treasury yields soar, risk assets must first kneel in respect. But today Bitcoin is very resilient because funds are starting to treat it as a "geopolitical hedge + inflation hedge" backup. Let's first look at the Middle East situation. Brent crude surged 4.37% in one day, closing at $102.31, and WTI also rose 2.71% to $92.87. The trigger was another incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where at least three oil tankers were attacked by unidentified flying objects. The US military has also deployed a third aircraft carrier and nearly 10,000 troops to the Middle East. Trump even said that after the midterm elections, there is a "possibility" of increasing strikes against Iran, and when Iran proposed reopening the strait, he directly replied, "Not good enough yet." Normally, this script is bearish for Bitcoin. The higher the oil price, the stronger the inflation expectations, and the less likely the Federal Reserve is to ease. But today Bitcoin surged from around 85,000 to 87,350, rising more than 3% intraday! Why did it rise instead of fall? Because the market is starting to treat Bitcoin as an "escape asset." The more chaotic the Middle East, the more unstable fiat currency credit becomes, and something like Bitcoin, which is censorship-resistant and has a fixed total supply, is secretly being pocketed by some. Binance Research data also shows that during the escalation of the US-Iran situation, BTC and ETH outperformed gold, silver, and major stock indices. But Pharaoh has to warn: don't become a bag holder above 86,900. Daily and 4-hour RSIUS September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
This nonfarm payrolls report was a major surprise, with new jobs added at only 29,000, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the employment data for the previous two months were simultaneously revised downward, signaling a cooling in the US labor market all at once. Wage growth also weakened, easing the pressure of wages pushing inflation higher. The market immediately lowered the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates in October, causing the US dollar and long-term US Treasury yields to fall rapidly, giving risk assets a short-term boost. However, it is important to distinguish that weakening employment does not mean the inflation problem is solved. The Federal Reserve is currently observing two fronts: weaker employment will limit further rate hike space, but as long as core inflation does not show a clear decline, policy is unlikely to quickly shift to easing. This data mainly delays the timing of rate hikes rather than directly opening the door to rate cuts. On the market front, macro-sensitive assets like gold and BTC saw a short-term rally driven by this data, but it is a data-driven pulse rebound. The market’s attention will immediately shift to the PCE inflation indicator next; if inflation remains stubborn, the sustainability of this asset rebound will be greatly diminished. Macro trading has entered a phase of alternating data battles; do not overly bet on a trend reversal based on a single weak nonfarm payroll report. Focus on subsequent inflation readings and statements from Federal Reserve officials.Nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, recording only 29,000. Bitcoin surged then retreated, directly dropping below 87000, with bulls and bears sweeping back and forth. How should one respond to this kind of volatile market?
The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, significantly below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, trading funds quickly reduced bets on further Fed rate hikes. But what’s special is that Bitcoin had already broken above 87000 before the nonfarm data was released, reaching a high of 87036, with a 24-hour gain once hitting 3.73%.
The logic behind this is not hard to understand. Previously, spot ETFs continuously saw capital inflows, and institutional funds have been accumulating in batches below 85000, inherently having upward momentum. This nonfarm data just accelerated the pace of the breakout. However, on-chain data shows that there are many profit-taking positions accumulated around 87000, so once it surges, it is prone to concentrated cash-outs. Blindly chasing highs in the short term requires extra caution. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $ZEC $ETH Finally waited for you, luckily I didn't give up — A confession from a 100x leverage short seller
Looking at these two bright green marks on the screen, I shed tears of relief like an old father. Finally waited for you, luckily I didn't give up!
Recalling the painful day today, Ethereum soared like a skyrocket, and my two 100x leverage short positions were like the Damocles sword hanging over my head. Waking up three times every midnight, the first thing I do is check the liquidation price on my phone, my hair is all worn out. Others trade crypto with skills, I trade purely by gambling.
Today, heaven has eyes! The market finally plunged but now I have confidence! What take profit or stop loss? Doesn't exist, my current tactic is to "play dead." As long as I don't close the position, this floating profit is enough for me to screenshot and post three moments.
Salute to all the short brothers who hold on late at night, our persistence is worth it! Tonight, add a chicken leg, and please don't rebound in my dreams! $BTC A while ago, I couldn't sleep in the middle of the night
I was scrolling on my phone and saw someone talking about $BTC
They said just hold and don't move, and you can turn things around
I got impulsive and downloaded an app
Spent a long time verifying
After buying, my palms were sweaty
When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell
When it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more
Went back and forth for a week
Lost quite a bit on fees
Later, a colleague talked about $ETH
Said holding long-term is stable
I followed the trend and bought some
But it stayed flat for half a month
Every day it looked the same when I opened the app
I really couldn't take it
Sold it off
A few days after selling, it started moving
I stared at the screen and kept hitting my leg
Then I randomly looked into $SOL
Bought it and got stuck
Been stuck for almost two months
My account was so red it made me anxious
The day I broke even, I immediately sold
After selling, it jumped up again
I laughed and closed the app
Now I don't mess around anymore
Only play with spare money
No contracts
No borrowing
No following tips
If I make money, I treat myself well
If I lose, I consider it tuition
I check at most twice a day
Sleeping well at night is better than anything
This isn't a path for ordinary people to get rich quick
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby
Don't put your life on the line#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $CT successfully topped out!
Opening price at 0.61
Basically, it can be said that it opened at the highest point
This move is legendary
I originally thought I had to hold the position
Could it be that I overestimated it?
Next, focus on whether it will break the previous high of 0.62
If it suddenly rebounds and breaks the previous high, be ready to add more short positions
I think it should be about right at this position
-----------------
$SOON was not so lucky
Added positions five times consecutively before finally profiting
First entry at 0.3
Last add at 0.5
Average cost around 0.43
Now profit is over 330%
I took profit directly
Most likely there will be a rebound next
Instead of waiting for profits to retract
Better to short again after the rebound
Now it depends on whether the dog whale gives a chance to re-enter
This is just a personal trading record post; shorting altcoins carries great risk, do not operate with heavy positions.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🚨 The trigger has been pulled, and the triangle has finally broken upwards!
The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, while the market expected 90,000. This is not just a surprise, but more like the job market suddenly "freezing."
The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%. After the data release, the market's expectation for an October rate hike dropped directly from 29% to 17%, and the US 2-year Treasury yield briefly fell by 10 basis points.
What have I been saying these past two days?
Employment is weakening, the short positions on US Treasuries are already overcrowded, PCE is clearly cooling down, and nonfarm data will continue to weaken.
Tonight, all these expectations were confirmed by the market.
The market's movement is more honest than anyone.
Bitcoin surged from $84K to $87,239, after the $85.2K resistance level that suppressed BTC for three consecutive days overnight turned into support.
Ethereum reached $2,749, and SOL rose nearly 5%.
The upward breakout after three days of consolidation is indeed strong—this is exactly the trend I mentioned the day before yesterday; the logic hasn't changed.
⚠️ But don't get excited just yet.
Some economists believe that the 29,000 figure may be affected by seasonal adjustment distortions and does not necessarily represent such a severe collapse in the job market.
This point needs to be remembered.
If next month's data is significantly revised, those who chased longs tonight may again face a rapid pullback.$BTC volume is gone, whales have fled, bulls are still dreaming
Let's look at the data first. BTC hit 86912 last night then quickly fell back to 85944, stuck below the 87509 resistance. The MACD histogram is close to the zero line, RSI is at 67.6—just a bit higher will trigger overbought profit-taking. The trading volume is only 1.77 billion, this volume simply can't support a real breakout.
Glassnode directly characterizes this rebound as "premature and speculative," the core issue being the lack of real trading volume support. Binance spot order book shows strong sell walls between 85,000 and 85,500, with 77,200 as the key defense line. ETF funds had a net outflow of 148.7 million on September 30, ending a continuous 9-day net inflow of about 3 billion. On-chain data shows whales reduced about 30,000 BTC from September 27 to October 1, worth approximately 2.52 billion USD.
What alarms me most is the derivatives market. Funding rates soared from 3% to 10%, and long crowding surged sharply. The price rose, but open interest first dropped then rose, which previously looked more like short covering rather than new longs entering. The buy pressure indicator rose to 4.9, the highest since August—this kind of frenzy often appears near short-term tops.
The price is approaching the strong $87K resistance zone, volume can't keep up, institutional funds are withdrawing, whales are reducing. Under this structure, I'd rather miss a rebound than buy at resistance.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate surged to 10%, while open interest contracts simultaneously warmed up, showing a clear rebound in the derivatives market.
Since September 30, the Bitcoin perpetual contract funding rate has risen from about 3% to 10%; open interest increased by approximately 27,000 BTC, bringing the current total to 653,000 BTC, corresponding to a notional value of about 56.2 billion USD. During this period, the coin price also rose from around 83,500 USD to 86,500 USD.
Several market signals are worth noting.
• The rising funding rate indicates increased long position costs, reflecting a clear warming of bullish sentiment in the market
• The continuous rise in open interest shows that new leveraged funds are entering the market
• Leverage risk is accumulating simultaneously; if the market quickly reverses, the high funding rate will accelerate concentrated long position liquidations, amplifying the correction
• This round is a low-level recovery market. On September 30, open interest was only 625,000 BTC, a relatively low level in the past year. This increase is just a recovery from a low base and has not yet reached an extremely crowded state
Price increase, rising positions, and funding rate growth together indicate that this rebound has attracted leveraged funds back.
Going forward, the key focus is whether Bitcoin can continue to maintain the upward trend and keep the funding rate within a relatively healthy range. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC indeed dropped! It's definitely a sell-the-news market. Actually, at 10 o'clock, before the sell-off started, I already had this feeling.
But since it has dropped, there's no changing the fact now. We can only watch the key levels to see if it breaks down.
Strong support below is at 85500, then 84800, and further down at 82800.
As long as it doesn't break below 82800, it is considered a normal oscillating correction.
But if it breaks below 82800, then we will analyze whether the structure is broken.
At present, it is still oscillating within a bullish structure. The trend is somewhat like the day before yesterday; although the oscillation is intense, the overall recovery won't take too long.
Also, pay attention to the flow of funds.
On-chain observation shows that several spot transactions were just transferred from cold wallets to exchanges. The exact purpose is yet to be confirmed!
Hopefully, it's not for dumping.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs have both shifted from net inflows to net outflows, which is a warning signal.
The bullish trend that saw continuous inflows for 9 days, totaling $3.1 billion, has now reached a temporary pause. After September 30, funds fled for two consecutive days, with a total outflow of $173 million. ETH followed suit with withdrawals, indicating this is no longer a single-coin portfolio adjustment but a collective cash-out by institutional capital in major crypto assets.
Institutional capital always acts first, choosing to take profits and exit at market highs, indicating that at current price levels, large funds are unwilling to continue absorbing upward pressure.
Many interpret this as a short-term consolidation, but be aware: if short-term capital continues to flow out, market buying power will quickly dry up. The incremental funds that previously pushed prices higher disappear, the market loses upward momentum, and after high-level oscillations, the probability of a downward correction will increase.
Currently, the market seems to still resist declines, but this is mainly supported by retail sentiment. With incremental funds exiting, only internal market battles remain, and selling pressure above will grow heavier.
Going forward, focus on ETF capital data; if net outflows persist, this rebound rally will most likely have peaked. Avoid blindly chasing highs; rebounds are windows for short-selling battles. Be sure to manage position risk carefully. XRP 1.53, but if you look at the on-chain data, you'll find a very fragmented situation
In the past 5 days, XRP whales holding over one million dollars have increased their holdings by more than 470 million tokens, which at the time was worth about 724 million dollars. Total holdings rose from 12.37 billion to 12.8 billion tokens. The XRP spot ETF has seen net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks, accumulating about 1.79 billion dollars
Money is flowing in. But the price has dropped from the September high of 1.65 to 1.53
This divergence is not the first time it has appeared. After whales increased holdings by about 460 million tokens in August, the coin price surged 40.7% within a week, reaching 1.70 dollars. The current scale and pace of accumulation are almost identical to that August wave
Looking at the regulatory side, two events just happened to coincide with this time point
On October 1, the SEC released a 760-page crypto custody proposal allowing more investment firms and state trust companies to hold digital assets on behalf of clients, acknowledging that "custody capabilities may lag asset listings by several months." The Federal Reserve simultaneously announced a stablecoin regulatory draft requiring payment stablecoins to be 100% backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries and other highly liquid assets
Legislation is stuck in the Senate, but regulators themselves are pushing forward. This clears practical operational obstacles for institutional funds entering the market, which is more tangible than the legislation itself
My judgment: 1.50 is a strong support for XRP. Whales are directly absorbing selling pressure in the 1.50-1.60 range, not waiting for lower prices. The ETF has been buying for 11 consecutive weeks, not betting on short-term moves
If 1.50 breaks, I admit I was wrong. If 1.50 holds, 1.65 is the first target Missed $CT yesterday, so today I decided to get on board with $XDP.
Since CT has surged so much, I missed the chance to get in. Both are new coins, so I hope XDP can give some momentum.
Today's market is pretty good; BTC has already broken through 86,000. Normally, altcoins should have a catch-up rally. XDP has been sideways for three days, plus there’s an event going on, so I think it will rise.
I'm just a retail investor, I know this is pure retail psychology. If I hadn’t missed selling the $CT I bought the day before yesterday, it would have doubled by now. I’m just really unwilling to miss out.
However, if XDP doesn’t rise, I’ll hold it for at most two days. If it drops more than 10%, I’ll sell it promptly and not hold for long.
My good brothers, can I get an extra meal tomorrow with this wave? The non-farm payroll data is out, is $BTC about to have a comfortable run?
September non-farm payrolls came in cold, below expectations. The US added 29,000 seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs in September, below the market median expectation of 90,000. The US unemployment rate in September slightly rose to 4.2%, market expectation was 4.1%, and average hourly earnings year-over-year were 3.0%, also below expectations.
Looking at these data together, the signal is clear: the US labor market is clearly cooling down.
For BTC and tech stocks, this is actually a short-term positive. Because the weaker the employment, the less pressure the Fed has to continue tightening, and the market's expectations for future easing may reheat.
If BTC can hold above 86,000 based on this data, I will continue holding my long positions and keep looking upward. $BTC $ETH $ZEC This rally,
makes me vaguely feel the momentum is weakening.
I'll prepare to watch the market closely early tomorrow morning,
to see if I can catch a suitable entry point for going long.
After taking profit on that long position this morning,
I held back all day,
not opening any new positions.
But the market just kept surging all day,
so it's not like I’m not conflicted.
However, compared to before,
this time my mindset has moved forward a bit
at least I didn’t impulsively switch to shorting out of frustration.
If I had done that,
the profits I made today wouldn’t just be lost,
I’d probably end up losing more.
Keep grinding.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 A while ago, I was scrolling through my phone late at night
and saw someone sharing that $BTC could bounce back.
I got impulsive and downloaded an app.
Spent a long time verifying my identity.
After buying, my palms were sweaty.
When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell.
When it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more.
I went back and forth for a week,
losing quite a bit on fees.
Later, a colleague talked about $ETH,
saying it’s stable for the long term.
I followed the trend and bought some.
But it stayed flat for half a month.
Every day I opened the app, it was the same.
I just couldn’t hold on,
so I sold.
A few days after I sold, it started moving.
I stared at the screen and slapped my leg.
Then I randomly looked into $SOL.
Bought it and got stuck.
Been stuck for almost two months.
My account was so red it made me anxious.
The day I broke even, I immediately sold.
After I sold, it jumped up again.
I chuckled and closed the app.
Now I don’t mess around anymore.
I only play with spare money.
No contracts,
no borrowing money,
no following tips.
If I make money, I treat myself well.
If I lose, I consider it tuition.
I check at most twice a day.
Being able to sleep well at night is worth more than anything.
This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quick.
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby.
Don’t put your life on the line. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Conclusion first: ZRO is not being squeezed by leverage today; it's driven by spot buying — the funding rate is only 0.0025%, almost zero.
Looking at the data: in 24 hours, it rose from 1.654 to 1.95, peaking at 1.9994, just one step away from $2. The 4H chart is clear: after a volume surge with a long bullish candle from 1.70 to 1.87 at dawn, it consolidated between 1.80-1.84 for four hours without any sell-off, and the funds gradually tried to push towards 2.
On the news side, CMC reports "institutional buying + technical momentum," but ainvest warns: there are token unlocks in October, so overhead supply really exists.
My market sense: flat funding rate + sideways consolidation without breaking + second volume surge — this combination usually means rotation, not distribution. $2 is a psychological level; if it breaks through, there's likely more room; if not, 1.80 is the support zone.
This is not investment advice. Do you think $ZRO can hold above $2 this time? As usual, a quick look before bed～
BTC peaked at 87238 today, currently priced at 85440. I'm watching that line on OKX; once again, someone is blowing hot air at the summit.
This morning, some were shouting "a crash is coming," but BTC reversed and surged, forcing some shorts out; however, as soon as it hit 87238, it couldn't hold and dropped back to 85440, meaning those who chased the high just got pinned down. I scanned the order book—there's support between 85000-85500, but buying pressure isn't strong. Sell orders pile up above 87000, and volume has shrunk compared to the surge, indicating this move looks more like a short squeeze followed by a retracement, not a trend reversal.
Key $BTC levels I marked:
Support: 85000-85300; if broken, look at 84500-84800, then down to 83500.
Resistance: 86500-87238; only a volume-backed break above here can target 88000-90000; failure to hold means a pullback after the rally.
My strategy: I didn't chase this morning and am not in a hurry now. I reduced some short-term positions around 86800 and am holding the rest. If it retraces to around 85000 with low volume and stabilizes, I'll lightly add with a stop loss below 84500; if it surges to 87238 without volume, I'll continue reducing.New job creation has clearly slowed down, the unemployment rate is rising, and wage growth is also decelerating. For the market, this not only reduces the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates in October, but more importantly, it further compresses the necessity and room for tightening monetary policy in December and even into 2026. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The market's previous biggest concern of “high interest rates lasting longer” can now breathe a sigh of relief. Weakening employment indicates demand is cooling, and slower wage growth reduces the risk of a wage-inflation spiral. The Federal Reserve fully has the capital to remain patient and does not need to rush into further rate hikes. Overall, this is bearish for the dollar on the asset side, while benefiting U.S. Treasuries, gold, and risk assets. Treasury yields, especially short-term, are expected to decline; gold benefits from expectations of falling real rates and a weaker dollar; U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and high-valuation growth assets may see a recovery in risk appetite. However, it is important to note that if subsequent employment data deteriorates too quickly, market logic could shift from “soft landing easing” to “recession concerns,” so inflation, consumption, and corporate earnings must still be closely monitored. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised July nonfarm payrolls down from +21,000 to -10,000, and August from 162,000 to 133,000, a combined reduction of 60,000 compared to the original figures. Recently, there have indeed been many positive signals, including the SEC Chair’s proposal to promote stock market blockchain adoption, which is a positive sign for Bitcoin. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收Actually, some have opened short positions near 87000 on Bitcoin. You can set a break-even stop profit, meaning either this position exits without loss, or you bet on a double top, with a later pullback to around 74000-70000.Green毛 that night, one big trade covered two small ones completely.
First, look at the doubled $BTC long position: entered at 84,679.5, exited at 86,349.8, gaining nearly 1,670 points along the way. With 100x leverage, 3.89 BTC pocketed 6,287.13 USDT, a return of +190.83%.
$ETH long average price was 2,702.85, closed at 2,687.77, completely opposite direction. 80 ETH, also 100x leverage, lost 1,327.69 USDT, a return of -61.40%. Position opened at 01:37 AM, held until 05:43 AM before giving up and cutting losses.
BTC short was even shorter-lived: opened short at 84,491.7, but price went up, exited at 84,666.1. From 05:53 to 06:02, less than 10 minutes, 5 BTC lost 1,085.29 USDT, -25.69%.
In total, the profitable trade made 6,287 USDT, while the two losing trades totaled about 2,412 USDT loss. The result is indeed big wins and small losses, but the cost was holding 100x leverage all along. Aggressive style, huge exposure, just watch the show, don’t copy it.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly cooled rate hike expectations, but I'm still holding short positions
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls came in at 29,000, expected 90,000, a direct surprise. Rate hike expectations dropped sharply, the market got excited, BTC surged to 87,000, ETH also pulled up. But I'm still holding short positions, why? Because the current risks are not in rate hikes, but elsewhere.
$BTC
BTC surged to 87,000, up over 3%, looks strong. But the range from 87,000 to 90,000 is all previous trapped positions, it's not easy to break through at once. The nonfarm surprise is indeed positive, but when the good news is fully priced in, it turns negative. Also, oil prices remain high, the situation in Iran is tense, the Strait of Hormuz can be closed at any time, if oil prices spike, inflation returns, and rate hike expectations rise again. Trump's midterm elections are approaching, policies can change suddenly, uncertainty is high.
$ETH
I'm still holding my short at 2671 on ETH, now around 2750, a small loss. But I'm not worried, ETH is weaker than BTC, strong resistance at 2800 above, it can't break through. ETF funds have been flowing out, the ecosystem has no new stories, price rises just follow the market. The nonfarm positive news has been digested, it should fall.
$ZEC
The privacy coin logic still holds, but this coin is very volatile, nonfarm data has limited impact, mainly speculation by capital. Play with small positions only.
Summary: The nonfarm surprise is positive, but only short-term. The real risks lie in oil prices, Iran situation, and Trump's midterm elections. Without resolving these uncertainties, the market won't trend unilaterally. Holding short positions, wait until the positive news is fully digested before reassessing #ZEC hits a new high in this round, approaching $1700 $ZEC $ZEC $ZEC This surge has indeed been fierce, but at this point, it's no longer suitable to blindly chase longs.
After consecutive rallies earlier, short-term profit-taking is very heavy. The current market looks more like a high-level battle between bulls and bears. The key focus next is around 1300; as long as this level holds, the overall bullish structure remains. Only after firmly reclaiming 1400–1410 can there be expectations to challenge previous highs again.
Conversely, if 1300 is broken down with volume, be cautious that this rally may enter a deeper level of correction.
My thinking is simple: the trend hasn't completely broken down yet, but high-level volatility has clearly increased. Now, rather than guessing the top, it's more important to watch key supports and breakout confirmations.
Especially be careful with position sizing in contracts; with ZEC's volatility, a single spike could wipe out high leverage.
This is just my personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. I started to suspect that the buyer of 3.75 million HYPE off-platform from Labs might actually be Hyperliquid Strategies
The last cash balance they reported was "only" $294M, but that was a week late, so they very likely now have enough cash (~$330M market cap at announcement, minus any discount they get)
And this explains why they allow their cash balance to increase while continuing to take advantage of the stock issuance program at the prevailing market price (usually preferring to buy HYPE immediately when new shares are issued)$HYPE #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Delisted globally, yet listed on the NYSE. A coin delisted by multiple major exchanges was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in August. Grayscale's ZCSH, the world's first privacy coin spot ETF. Banned in over a dozen countries, the EU's MiCA will completely ban it next year, but the US has granted it a license. Only four words to choose privacy. Monero enforces anonymity, $ZEC is visible if you check it. It found a loophole and slipped through. There's no doubt it's the leader in this field $ZEC Following up on my previous article, I bought BTC and ETH during the pullback, and CT bought on the dip. Currently, my account balance is 650U. I'm considering whether to close my position. Can any experts give me some advice? I'm a bit at a loss—when losing, I hold on stubbornly; when winning, I find it hard to hold.During this latest rebound, $BTC pushed above $87,000 while $ETH reclaimed the $2,800 area, with both assets moving closer to their previous highs. $ZEC, however, is still struggling to reclaim $1,350. Compared with the broader market, its relative strength remains noticeably weaker. When an asset leads the market early but starts losing momentum while the broader market continues recovering, that can be an important sign that its trend structure is changing. For now, I’m not looking to close thThe only applicable scenario for reversing positions: when the market suddenly plunges straight down, accompanied by a divergence signal, and the bears rapidly and completely unload. Only when the rebound in such a market is sufficiently certain is it worth reversing positions.
For other declines within a range-bound market, without divergence and not a one-time sharp plunge, do not reverse positions. Range-bound tug-of-war easily leads to mistimed entries and increasingly heavy positions.
Updated trading rules:
✅ Reversing positions is only for scenarios of a straight sharp plunge plus divergence; both conditions must be met to consider acting, if either is missing, abandon reversing.
✅ Defend only at the coldest bottom points; do not reverse in range-bound markets.
✅ If opportunity certainty is low, stay out and observe; avoid repeatedly adding positions or switching long/short during the session.
✅ Standard cold bottom single position limit is 30%, never over-leverage.
✅ Only buy at cold bottom points from straight sharp drops; avoid entering during range-bound or gradual declines.
✅ On the first rebound wave, prioritize halving added positions to lock in profits.
✅ Do not repeatedly buy at the same low point or open both long and short positions simultaneously to prevent position stacking.
✅ For the second and subsequent low points, only observe, avoid heavy positions.
✅ Only one reverse close is allowed per market wave; no further additions after reversing.
✅ Reversing must wait for confirmation of market level and K-line points; if points are not properly hit, do not reverse.
✅ If after entry the market does not rebound and continues to fall, exit immediately; do not hold losing positions.
✅ In high-level range-bound areas, new simultaneous long and short positions are prohibited.
Core: Divergence plus straight sharp plunge, both conditions together form the exclusive entry window for reversing positions. Missing one means no reversal.