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Bitcoin peaked near 86900, right at the pressure zone repeatedly emphasized in the previous round. Now, the dividing line between bulls and bears is just one number: 86600.
If it holds steady, the short-term structure remains relatively strong, and the next step is likely to test 89000; if it doesn't hold, it will most likely return to the familiar consolidation range. The strategy at this position leans more towards taking profits rather than attacking—gradually reducing positions above 87000, cutting one batch for every thousand increase, lowering the overall position to below 40%.
At this stage of the market, it's no longer the time to aggressively buy at low levels. Take profits while it rises, and leave the remaining positions for the trend, also keeping an exit route for yourself. $BTC $SOL$QNT — $292
Quant pulled back to $292 after a 530% two-week surge from $59 to $369. Whale wallets hit a record 645 transactions above $100K in a single day.
The founder's wallet moved $6.97M in QNT after years of inactivity.
$430 is the critical resistance. Analysts floating $2,000 targets.
#StrategyEndsBuyTheDip Today's core market keywords: Nonfarm cooling, interest rate expectations shifting.
The US September nonfarm employment data was below expectations, and the combined nonfarm job additions for July and August were revised down by 60,000, indicating that the US labor market is gradually cooling.
This directly changes the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that the weak employment data makes a Fed rate hike in October "unlikely," and traders are also reducing their bets on an October rate hike.
The market transmission logic is changing:
Cooling employment → Reduced rate hike pressure → US Treasury yields fall → Dollar pressure eases → Risk assets benefit.
This is also an important background for BTC's recent rebound.
However, the market is not without disagreement.
Fed's Logan still believes the FOMC should continue raising rates and suggests a target increase of at least 50 basis points, indicating internal controversy over inflation risks.
Besides interest rates, the energy market is also a variable.
The EU is discussing releasing diesel inventories; France proposes Europe release 50 million barrels of diesel, and IEA member countries release 50 million barrels of crude oil to ease energy supply pressure.
If energy prices fall, it helps reduce inflation pressure; if oil prices rise again, it may limit the Fed's room to pivot.
For the crypto community, the next focus is on three directions:
First, whether US Treasury yields can continue to decline;
Second, whether the dollar enters a correction;
Third, whether BTC ETF funds continue to flow in.
Additionally, the Ethereum EIP-8363 proposal has been withdrawn and will not enter Hegotá ⚠️ $ETH this market is getting more and more interesting.
Ethereum has been consolidating sideways continuously, repeatedly testing $2730 but being pushed back, with rebound highs steadily decreasing, indicating that selling pressure above remains obvious.
On the other hand, the lows have not moved down correspondingly; around $2680 there has consistently been capital support.
📉 Resistance above is gradually lowering
📈 Support below is continuously rising
🔥 Volatility range is rapidly contracting
This "lower highs, higher lows" compression pattern often signals that a big move is brewing.
Next, focus on $2650.
If there is a quick spike down and a break below this level, bears may release further pressure, making the $2550–$2500 zone worth close attention.
Of course, if $2730 is broken out with volume, the entire bearish structure needs to be reassessed.
Don’t rush to guess the direction; wait for the market to choose the answer itself.
#ETH #Ethereum #Crypto #OKX #TradingUS September nonfarm payrolls only +29,000, far below the expected 89,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, August was revised down by about 29,000. Employment cools down, rate cut expectations rise, $BTC data later touched about 87,200, now about 86,900 (Beijing 21:05, Coinbase). For the positive news to take effect, first watch the US Treasury and US stock market opening; only holding above 87,000 counts as a real breakthrough. #Nonfarm #PCE month-on-month turns negative, GDP growth slows to 1.5% Going all in to short $ZEC 🤑🤑🤑
Although the nonfarm payroll data is weak 🤔🤔🤔
The probability of a rate hike in October has decreased 👿👿👿
Market manipulators, don’t you like to pump? 😂😂😂
Come on! Keep pumping! My position is right here!!
I beg you to just liquidate me directly. 😏😏😏
But the more it’s times like this
The less I want to chase longs
Just entered, currently at a floating loss
Only about a dozen points
No big deal
Today I just want to see
Those who chased the rally today
Will probably start feeling bad soon
When it goes up, it’s like there’s no ceiling
When it comes down, it won’t negotiate with you slowly either
Let it perform a bit more
It’s actually much more comfortable here
It’s already been smashed down nearby
50x leverage
Waiting for profits already over 800%+
Everyone thinks it can keep flying
Now?
What needs to be vomited out still has to be vomited
So sometimes the market is like this
When it’s rising, everyone thinks they understand it
When the real top starts to loosen
Everyone runs faster than the next
I’m not interested in chasing at this position for now
Market manipulators, keep pumping!
Don’t stop!
I actually want to see
Whether this time you liquidate me
Or you yourself pump high then start dumping!!
All in right here!
I beg you to keep pumping!!
Not telling you to follow my trade
In the end, who gives up first
Let the candlestick speak for itself
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% ETH: $3,000 could become a turning point
On the daily chart, ETH/USDT is forming an upward impulse after a decline.
However, the price is now approaching a zone that previously acted as a supply cluster.
Therefore, further growth does not necessarily mean a continuation of the trend: the market may first take liquidity above local highs and then move into a correction.
The main resistance zone is $3,000–3,268.
$ETH
#USNFPDataCools $SOL Support Hold Bullish Momentum Building.
Leverage: 10x Max
Trade Setup: Long
Entry: 122.20–122.70
SL: 120.90
TP1: 123.80
TP2: 125.20
TP3: 127.00
SOL is holding above the 121.50–122.00 support zone after a strong upside move, showing buyers remain in control near the entry area. A sustained hold above support can open the path toward the 123.80 resistance and higher targets, with momentum favoring continuation.
Buy and Trade $SOL
#USNFPDataCools $SAND originally had a take-profit set at 0.0695
Later, I saw many orders placed at 0.07
Thinking the market maker would eat those, I changed it to 0.072
But it only reached 0.071, what a pity
In the end, the closing price was even lower than the initial setting
The direction was right, but I was still greedy, cutting the profit in half🎉【Day 387 of Dollar-Cost Averaging: Working Hard at My Cousin's Wedding, Getting 'Backstabbed' by BTC and the Groom】
Today was a day of intense hard work at my cousin's wedding! From the morning's bride pickup and blocking the door, to running around all afternoon handing out cigarettes and pouring drinks, my legs barely felt like mine anymore.
Then, just as I was exhausted and hiding behind the Red Double Happiness backdrop to catch my breath, my phone dinged in my pocket—my steadfast 0.1U per hour dollar-cost averaging bot made its scheduled deduction.
I opened the app for a quick look and suddenly the wedding candy in my hand didn’t taste sweet anymore; the market’s flavor was far more enticing:
📈 Total days of DCA: 387
💰 Holdings: 0.0093153 BTC
⚡ Trigger count: 7,628 times (this bot is more dedicated than me clocking in at work)
📊 Average price: 86,896 (BTC hit a new high again, 7.48% return, 378 yuan profit, just enough to give my cousin a big red envelope!)
Wishing my cousin a happy wedding!
See, while everyone’s joyfully celebrating on the red carpet in real life, BTC is quietly powering up on the candlestick chart. That’s dollar-cost averaging for you—whether I’m delivering takeout or serving plates at a hometown hotel, it’s silently building my future confidence.
$BTC $ETH Direction: Short
· Entry: Around 2,760 - 2,780
· Stop Loss: 2,800
· Take Profit: 2,720 / 2,680
· Position: Light position, strictly with stop lossThe six major sects are not besieging Bright Summit! Are they besieging Chongqing instead?
Going out to play is never as comfortable as staying at home 😌
Didn't buy Bitcoin during the day, just waited for the 8:30 PM non-farm payroll data, and it suddenly shot up. It's not that I couldn't afford 85,000 in the afternoon, but 87,000 at night is even less cost-effective 😅
Superman 100U dollar-cost averaging $BTC, Day 49, purchase price: $86643.36, purchase amount: 0.00115Just after the major non-farm payrolls were announced, the CME rate hike probability website crashed again. Now it finally refreshed, showing the October rate hike probability has indeed dropped to the teens, closing at 16.1%.
This probability basically defines the minimum probability range for no rate hike in October, but as always, maintaining a no rate hike probability for over 20 days from now is still too long. The Federal Reserve will not tolerate such market consensus lasting too long.
So, the fastest scenario is that some information will come out next week to push the October rate hike probability back up, and then it will be pushed down again closer to the 10.26 FOMC meeting.Information Screening: The market is full of news, learn to filter out the noise📰
Every day, a large amount of information floods the market, most of which are just short-term emotional disturbances.
Realistic Dilemma:
Immediately increase positions when seeing good news, panic sell when seeing bad news;
Get information from social group short videos, lacking independent verification;
Mistake short-term news for signals of long-term trend changes.
Two optional paths:
Path A: Only track core macro information of $BTC and $ETH, reduce browsing fragmented social group messages.
Path B: When seeing hot news, first observe the capital reaction on $CRV and MKR market, do not impulsively act immediately.
News-driven market moves are mostly short-lived, do not let short-term news change your long-term holding framework.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The short-selling funding rate for $SAND is ridiculously high, annualized over 1000%. The 24-hour trading volume suddenly surged to 1.7e, making it popular. Currently, it has risen 56%. There is support during short-term declines, so it can't fall much further. Could it suddenly spike to over 0.1 like that coin did half a month ago? Right now, the short positions dominate the long-short ratio. If I were the market maker, I would definitely pump it hard and aggressively absorb the short sellers' chips. Let's see how it goes later; I'll wait and watch for now and dare not open a position.OKB was still below 122.3 yesterday, but today it directly spiked to 122.9.
Yesterday's low was 120.5, the high touched 122.3 but didn't break through, closing at 121.51. Today it opened at 121.52, with a high of 122.9, a low of 120.76, and the current price is about 122.53. Volume has increased.
122.9 above is the immediate resistance. If it breaks below 121.52, it’s likely to first see 120.76, and then further down to 120.5.
In the short term, watch if it can hold around 122.5. If it can’t hold, treat it as a pullback after a breakout and don’t chase at this price. For those already holding, watch if 121.52 can hold as support; if not, consider reducing your position. $OKB The phrase "synchronous outflow" doesn't add up.
Farside 10/1 COMPLETE: BTC +102.7 million, ETH −55.4 million, SOL −1.1 million. The yellow label still lists outflow side by side, but BTC had already flowed back that day.
The room is debating whether it's a mass exodus or waiting for the non-farm payrolls—I’m breaking down the accounts: IBIT held +195.6 million that day, while ETH side is still leaking. The synchronous narrative is already cracking.
Do you accept this layer?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Currently, from the market perspective, both gold and Bitcoin have returned to the small highs caused by the positive PCE data on Wednesday night. If the US stock market cannot effectively break through after opening later, there might be some changes over the weekend closure until next week. The duration of this positive effect is somewhat short.Damn, still crossing arms, historical data indeed revised downward, the show goes on, first enjoy a week of bubble, when the risk market has no room to rise, there will definitely be some other news to push up the interest rate expectations#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
The US September non-farm payrolls will be released tonight at 20:30, with an expected increase of 84,000 to 85,000, significantly slowing compared to August's 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Initial jobless claims are 197,000, below expectations, indicating the job market has not collapsed. But Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson just commented that recent market interest rate rises may require more time and data to determine whether to adjust rates. Once this statement came out, market bets on a rate hike in October dropped again.
Data drives BTC movement
If non-farm payrolls are below 70,000, signaling clear employment weakness, an October rate hike is basically ruled out, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to fall, giving BTC a chance to continue rebounding and test 86,000 to 87,000. If data is between 80,000 and 100,000, meeting expectations, market reaction will be mild, and BTC will likely fluctuate between 84,000 and 86,000. If data is strong above 130,000, rate hike expectations will heat up again, putting pressure on BTC to retest 82,000 or even 81,000.
The same logic applies to gold
Weak non-farm payrolls will cause gold to rebound and test above 4,200. Strong non-farm payrolls will push gold down to below 4,130 or even 4,100.
Don't bet on the data in trading
BTC has risen 2.43% now, and market sentiment is optimistic, but non-farm payrolls are a random variable; guessing right is luck, guessing wrong is tuition.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise, BTC Surges to $87,000: The Real Change Is the October Rate Hike Odds!
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings fell to 3.0% year-over-year.
Coupled with downward revisions to employment data from the previous two months, the cooling U.S. labor market is not just a one-month anomaly but a sustained trend.
Weaker employment suggests that continued rate hikes could amplify economic downside risks; the slowdown in wage growth also eases pressure on service inflation from rebounding.
However, core inflation remains around 3%, and oil prices and geopolitical risks have not disappeared, so it is still too early to discuss rate cuts.
That said, weak data is not purely positive.
If upcoming economic data continues to deteriorate, the market will no longer trade on the expectation of no rate hikes but on recession. If U.S. stocks open high but close lower, BTC could also see profit-taking.
The $87,400–$88,000 range is a key resistance level; a strong volume close above this opens the way to $90,000–$93,000.
$85,500 is the short-term strength/weakness line; holding above it indicates a valid breakout.
Breaking below $83,000–$84,000 signals weakening upward momentum; losing $82,000 means this round of nonfarm-driven gains is basically fully realized.
Weak employment significantly reduces the risk of further rate hikes in October, increasing BTC’s chances of testing $90,000 this month. However, how much it rises after the data release is less important than whether it can hold $85,500 after the U.S. market opens and turn $88,000 into support. That will determine whether this is a trend start or just profit-taking.Вероятность повышения процентной ставки ФРС США снизилась до 16,1%. 83,9% участников рынка, по данным #CMEGroup, ставят на паузу. И это при том, что еще в начале недели более 65% игроков рынка ждали повышения ставки. В итоге сначала эти ожидания существенно снизили благоприятные Индексы расходов на личное потребление, а сегодня "добили" данными по рынку труда. Ситуация, конечно, выглядит какой-то глобально "зеленой". За окном Uptober, макроданные позитивные, тренд смотрит вверх. Народ настроен м$BTC — $86,145
Bitcoin broke above $86K overnight after buyers absorbed the 122M in short liquidations** in 24 hours. Spot ETFs flipped back to inflows with $102.7M on Oct 1.
$85K is now support. $87.5K is the next test.
$BTC
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows On October 1st, while everyone's Moments were full of traffic jams on highways and crowds at scenic spots, I was the only one getting brutally crushed by the dog whales on ZEC's candlestick chart! Others spend their holidays buying happiness, but I spend mine opening 30x leverage to buy misery. That night, I was almost carried away directly by ZEC!
Looking back at this magical night, ZEC's privacy narrative combined with its old coin low circulation made its spikes even more irrational than mainstream coins. At 22:01, seeing it hold steady around 1390, I maxed out a 30x long position, only to be smashed down to 1363 in 49 minutes, with a glaring -67% floating loss on the screen, over three thousand dollars wiped out in seconds, my heart skipped a beat.
At 22:50, I cut losses, watching it bounce back to 1382, then with red eyes I reversed to a 30x short. The dog whales were even more ruthless, instantly pulling back to 1330, then at midnight 1368.5 I took profits; a few minutes later it plunged to 1300. A day of back and forth netted me 2800 dollars. Now at 1380 sideways, liquidity is as thin as paper, can't play anymore.
Privacy coin + low market cap + high leverage = casino roulette. The fake holiday is over, leverage is off, being alive is better than anything. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Non-farm payroll data is out, will $BTC feel good this round?
September non-farm payrolls came as a surprise, falling short of expectations. The US added 29,000 seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs in September, below the market median expectation of 90,000. The US unemployment rate in September slightly rose to 4.2%, with market expectations at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings year-over-year at 3.0%, also below expectations.
Looking at these data together, the signal is clear: the US labor market is noticeably cooling down.
For BTC and tech stocks, this is actually a short-term positive. Because the weaker the employment, the less pressure the Fed has to continue tightening, and market expectations for future easing may reheat.
If BTC can hold above 86,000 on the back of this data, I will continue holding my long positions and keep looking upward.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Enduring the cycle is what makes a true winner
The market is full of stories but lacks resolve. Every surge is met with cries of "this time it's different," but after several bull and bear cycles, those who survive never rely on whitepapers or hype.
BTC doesn't depend on narratives; its computing power and consensus are its trump cards. ETH faces countless challenges, yet developers and TVL still gravitate toward it. SOL attracts high-frequency trading with low fees and high throughput. OKB, through total supply lockup and X Layer, has transformed from a platform token into an ecosystem gateway. Each has a different style but serves as an anchor in its own track.
Don't expect to get rich from a single coin. Only by combining core assets can you control drawdowns and weather volatility. Everyone is a stock god in a bull market, but only in a bear market do you see who is swimming naked. Winners aren't those who bet on a single surge but those who survive every cycle.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $SAND comes in for a quick taste of the fees, but unfortunately the current fee is capped at 1%. It used to be 1.5%, and after licking for a long time, the fees exceeded the principal.Considering the current $ETH market at the key support level of $2750, set take-profit in three tiers to balance profit realization and market tolerance:
First take-profit level for short positions: $2650. Close 50% of the position upon reaching this level to lock in basic retracement gains and avoid floating profits being eroded by market fluctuations.
Second take-profit level for short positions: $2618. Close another 30% of the position here, by which time most of the holding cost is covered, and the remaining position is essentially risk-free.
Third take-profit level for short positions: $2567. Close the remaining 20% of the position here, which is the key support at the EMA30 moving average, marking the near completion of the bearish trend.
It is essential to set stop-loss for short positions. If the price effectively breaks through this short-term resistance level, it indicates the short-term bearish logic has failed, and you should exit immediately to avoid further losses.
Use low-leverage isolated margin throughout to avoid forced liquidation triggered by extreme price spikes.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Brothers, after the clouds part, the moon shines bright; today I finally got a bite of meat. Even fly legs are meat. Recently, the market has been twisting back and forth like a twisted dough stick, and my account hasn't turned positive yet, but stopping the bleeding is better than taking a one-sided beating.
Today's strategy:
$BTC The big coin surged to around 85500 in the early session, just a breath away from the previous high. Those shorting probably got trapped again. I lean towards a daytime consolidation, with a possible pullback to 83500 or 82600 in the evening. For those wanting to go long, consider scaling in with a stop loss at 81888 and targets near 85800 and 86600.
$ETH The second coin's spot buying is slightly stronger, but the steering wheel is still in the big coin's hands. Yesterday's target was almost reached. If it pulls back to 2580 or 2520 tonight, consider going long with a stop loss at 2468 and targets at 2680 and 2750.
⚠️ The above is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Risk is your own responsibility.
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 A famous chartist called XLM a “long shot.” The market answered with volume.
$XLM pushed to $0.2346 today after Peter Brandt put Stellar on his multi-year radar. But beneath the social buzz sits a harder number: BVNK, now owned by Mastercard, recently connected its $39B annualized stablecoin flow to Stellar.
Narrative brought attention. Payment infrastructure gives traders a reason to keep looking. As soon as the non-farm payroll data came out, I knew the CPI data wouldn't be bad either
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
First, the non-farm employment increased by 29,000, significantly below expectations and previous values.
The initial non-farm employment figure for August was 162,000, revised down to 133,000. The initial figure for July was 21,000, revised down to -10,000.
September was weaker than expected, July was even negative, so the reason for a rate hike in October is definitely insufficient.
Second, the unemployment rate is 4.2%, higher than the forecast and previous value, but at the same time, the labor force participation rate increased from 61.6% to 61.8%.
So the increase in unemployment rate may be due to more people looking for jobs, not necessarily more unemployment. So don't fantasize about rate cuts.
Third, both the annual and monthly hourly wage growth rates were below expectations and previous values. As a result, the September consumer confidence index dropped sharply, so the upcoming September CPI data should not exceed expectations.
After all, wages haven't risen much, and consumer confidence has greatly weakened. So the CPI data on the 14th may also be positive, or at least not negative.
Therefore, for the FOMC meeting on October 28, it can't be said to be 100%, but it is very likely that there will be no rate hike.
Regarding the US-Iran situation, there may be some news causing minor negative impacts, but major negative impacts are unlikely.
However, whether there will be a rate hike in December still depends on subsequent data. We can only say the environment in October is favorable. Non-farm payrolls fell far short of expectations, triggering a strong wave of buying
$BTC surged from around 84,800 to now stand at 86,780 on the 4-hour chart, effectively breaking through the long-standing strong resistance at 85,640, which has now turned into support.
343 coins rose, only 56 fell, with many tokens gaining between +2% and +8%
The profit-making effect is fully activated, while the loss-making effect is weak; it's not just BTC pulling the market, funds are willing to spread into altcoins.
Do not heavily chase a one-sided position after a significant rally; a safer approach is to wait for a pullback to key support for strength verification, or confirm direction after holding a new high, rather than betting now on whether it can break 87,400.The U.S. jobs report has landed much weaker than expected: 🇺🇸 NFP: +29K vs +89K expected 👷 Unemployment: 4.2% vs 4.1% expected 💵 Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected The initial reaction was exactly what you would expect from a soft jobs report: Treasury yields and DXY moved lower, while Gold and BTC initially pushed higher. But here is where it gets interesting. 🥇 GOLD pumped aggressively and then met a serious rejection around the $4,228 area. ₿ BITCOIN also pushed higher befoWhat’s behind the $CT CT surge? Understanding the underlying logic of this rally
The recently booming CT is the governance token of the Concrete protocol. The core driver of this round’s breakout is the combined effect of exchange listing expectations and on-chain yield narratives.
CT is issued on Ethereum as an ERC20 token with a fixed total supply of 1 billion tokens and no additional inflation. It is positioned as an on-chain yield operating system where users can stake assets like WBTC and USDT to automatically execute on-chain strategies to earn yields. CT is the token used to vote on protocol governance parameters, and staking CT can also adjust platform fee rules.
The most direct catalyst for this surge was Coinbase adding CT to its listing preparation list, combined with OKX’s official announcement to list it. Expectations from leading exchanges directly attracted a large amount of short-term capital inflow. Unlike pure MEME coins, CT taps into the popular RWA and on-chain asset yield sectors, with a clear protocol business framework. The foundation’s compliance is also recognized in overseas markets.
However, its weaknesses cannot be ignored. CT only has governance rights and does not directly share platform profits; the token itself lacks stable cash flow buybacks. As a newly listed token, its token distribution is unstable, and short-term price increases rely entirely on exchange expectations and market sentiment. Once the listing benefits are realized, it is easy to see profit-taking and price drops.
In summary: CT is not an empty MEME token but a governance token with an on-chain yield narrative, ignited by expectations from leading exchanges. However, as a new token, it is extremely volatile. Avoid heavy positions chasing highs, as the realization of positive news often signals the arrival of risk. Clear out, clear out Feels like the market is a bit off The non-farm payroll data is so bad but there's barely any reaction $QUANT Just asking because I don't understand, I want to consult the experts: does US data have little impact on altcoins? I used to work in forex and felt the data had a significant impact, but looking at the recent small and big non-farm payrolls, it seems altcoins barely reacted.Non-farm data Unemployment rate 4.2%
Employment number 2.9
Naturally, this is good news for risk markets. The probability of a rate hike continues to decrease. US Treasury 2-year, 10-year, and 20-year bonds are all falling.
However, for ETH and BTC, this will only determine their 5-minute volatility.
The reasons are as follows
1. The daytime has already run ahead; the 4-hour structural level has just formed and needs consolidation confirmation to continue rising.
2. On the 1-hour chart, I don't know if it will continue to rise for a while tonight or adjust once the US stock market opens, but this is not important for trading.
3. The important thing is to know that if this is truly good news, there will be an hourly-level pullback now, which will definitely give you another chance to get on board.
4. Altcoin hype: UNI may perform relatively well this weekend.
Let's wait and see.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The job market has clearly cooled down, but to judge how weak it really is, we can't just look at the single number of new jobs added that month; we can further break it down:
❶ New Jobs Added: Hiring has clearly slowed
In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, significantly below the market expectation of about 85,000, indicating a clear slowdown in overall job additions.
❷ Revisions to Previous Data: Earlier employment was weaker than initially reported
July nonfarm payrolls were revised down from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, and August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs added over the two months.
👉🏻 The weakening in employment is not just reflected in September alone
❸ Wage Growth: Is it also slowing?
Average hourly earnings in September rose only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, providing another clue to the cooling labor market.
❹ Unemployment Rate: The rise also needs to be understood "why"
While the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%, meaning more people entered or stayed in the labor market, which could also affect the unemployment rate. Therefore, we cannot judge the extent of employment deterioration simply by seeing the "unemployment rate rise."
💡 Overall, the job market in September did indeed weaken further: weak new job additions, downward revisions, and slowing wage growth all provide evidence. Although the rise in labor force participation means the unemployment rate increase cannot be simply interpreted as "fewer jobs," it is not enough to overturn the cooling signals presented by the entire report on employment.💰 $1,000 → $1,250 | Trading Day 3
Finally seeing some recovery as $BTC returns to $86K. Still cautiously bullish. 📈
$UNI and $AAVE remain strong DeFi plays for me, with pullbacks offering potential entry points.
For $DOGE, I’ll keep reducing half the position around $0.098.
The key is survival: manage position size, control greed, and avoid blindly chasing pumps or dips. Slow, steady compounding beats emotional trading.
#USJobsDataToday
#BTCETHETFOutflows Today's cash flow should be read in three layers: leading, expanding, and speculative. $BTC belongs to the leading layer because it determines the overall market sentiment. $ETH is the expanding layer, indicating whether liquidity has left BTC to dive deeper into the ecosystem. $SOL and $XRP are the group to watch when cash flow seeks opportunities beyond the two major assets. A good signal is not just price increase but must have improved volume, reasonable OI, and support maintained after breakout. Therefore, react based on data instead of chasing green candles. Maintain discipline with stop points.The September non-farm payrolls will be released tonight, with interest rate hike expectations becoming the focus.
Many traders only focus on the short-term market fluctuations after the non-farm data is released, but they overlook the guiding value of this employment report for medium- to long-term liquidity trends. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
This time, the US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000. All four indicators—employment numbers, private sector jobs, unemployment rate, and wage growth—fell short of market expectations. Coupled with previous downward revisions of employment data, this fully signals a continued cooling of the labor market. Weak employment and slowing wage growth reduce the endogenous support for inflation, leading the market to further raise expectations for subsequent Fed easing.
From the perspective of crypto assets, liquidity expectations are the most important fundamental driver of BTC valuation. Once rate cut trades return to the main theme, the valuation pressure on interest-free scarce assets will ease, providing stronger macro support for this early bull market phase.
However, it is necessary to remain clear-headed here: a single non-farm payroll report is insufficient to immediately reverse the Fed's current policy pace. The short-term market is prone to a spike and fall after expectations are overdrawn; positive news does not equal an immediate start of a one-sided rally.
From my medium- to long-term live trading perspective, I will not rush to chase the short-term impulse brought by the news. I will continue to track subsequent inflation data to verify the sustainability of the liquidity shift, wait for the market to offer a cost-effective entry range, and then adjust my position accordingly. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly only 29,000, $BTC surged then pulled back, where is this "bad news" market headed?
September nonfarm data released: only 29,000 new jobs added, expected 90,000, and July and August were revised down by about 60,000 in total. Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, hourly wages increased by only 0.1% month-over-month.
Bitcoin responded with a surge, once touching around 86,800. But then it fell back to oscillate above 86,000, failing to hold.
Why did it surge up only to be pushed down again?
The 85,000–85,500 range has a thick wall of sell orders. Previously, it approached 87,000 but couldn't break through; this time it tried again and still failed. The resistance above is clear; if 87,000 is not broken, chasing highs in the short term is just feeding the sell order wall.
What to watch now:
· Above 87,000: a breakout can open space to 90,000
· Below 85,000: key support, if broken look for 82,000–83,000
· 10-year US Treasury yield: if it moves back toward 5.3%, risk assets will come under pressure
Nonfarm data pushed down rate hike expectations, but Bitcoin did not take the opportunity to break resistance. It is oscillating between 85,000 and 87,000 to digest, waiting for a directional choice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $CP ok specifically lists some junk coins, no futureEIP-7002 changes withdrawal control but does not handle all exits for users
The EIP-7002 introduced by Pectra allows the withdrawal address to trigger validator exits from the execution layer, reducing the risk that staking pools must rely on node operators' signatures to cooperate with redemptions. Previously, if operators refused or lost contact, the party holding economic rights might find it difficult to directly make validators leave; now, contract-based pools can bring exit rights closer to the withdrawal credential design. This improves the control structure but does not make withdrawals instantly credited. Validators still need to go through the exit queue and protocol processing, and staking pools must distribute the received ETH to users according to the rules. If contract permissions are set incorrectly, the withdrawal address is controlled, or frontend conditions are hidden, EIP-7002 cannot automatically protect assets. For $ETH staking products, what is worth checking is whether exit requests can be executed by on-chain rules, who can call them, and whether there is a pause switch, rather than just seeing the four words "support withdrawal."
The protocol grants the withdrawal address more initiative, which also makes the withdrawal address itself a more critical security target. Cold storage, permission separation, and contract auditing must be upgraded simultaneously; otherwise, the new capabilities will become new attack vectors.
Clear exit rights provide a trustworthy basis for redemption.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Brothers and sisters, hello, I am Bi Ge. Tonight at 8:30, I was staring at the screen waiting for the nonfarm payrolls. To be honest, I was stunned for three seconds the moment the data came out—29,000. I looked at it three times, thinking I had read it wrong. The market consensus expected 90,000, the previous value was 162,000, but the result was directly down to 29,000, a difference of exactly three times. This is not just below expectations; this is a direct bombshell. In today's article, I will take some time to break down and explain this data clearly. Because in the next month or two, how the crypto market moves depends entirely on this number tonight. First, look at four core data points, all completely collapsed. First, nonfarm payroll additions. Only 29,000 added in September, expected 90,000, and August was revised down from 162,000. Brothers, normally the US adds 150,000 to 200,000 jobs a month as a baseline; what does 29,000 mean? This is already recession-level employment data. The last time it was this bad was during the pandemic. Second, private sector added 46,000 jobs, expected 85,000, and the previous value was revised down from 127,000. Note, government departments are still adding people, but private enterprises have completely stopped. Private companies not hiring means business owners have no confidence in the future economy and are unwilling to expand their workforce. Third, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, higher than expected. This number seems to have only increased by 0.1 percentage points, but the trend is very dangerous—once the unemployment rate turns upward, it won't stop in just one month. Fourth, the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings dropped to 3%, expected 3.2% $ZEC short position - 50x leverage, went all in once
Short position at 1387, 50x leverage, take profit at 1365: below that is gambler's money
ZEC short: open at 1387, take profit at 1365, 50x leverage.
Why not be greedier and go lower? Three reasons:
1 - 1365 is previous low + round number resistance + concentrated short take profit zone. First time reaching it, easy to get a wick and rebound, risk-reward instantly worsens.
2. At 50x, 1% price movement equals 50% margin. From 1387 to 1365 is about 1.6%, ROE about 80%. This profit is enough.
3. Taking profit is not about the end of the downtrend, but about the risk-reward ratio ending. If stop loss is at 1398, risk is about 11U, profit 22U, roughly 2:1. Below that is emotional money, not systematic money.
My principle: take the body of the fish, not the tail.
1365 is not the end point, it's my cash-out point.
Will you take profit at 1365 or hold on? #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力
The boss has something to say
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson recently stated that AI infrastructure construction is driving up the costs of some goods and services, impacting core commodity prices. Since the September rate meeting, interest rates across various maturities have further increased. The Fed needs more time and data to decide whether to adjust rates again.
This statement conveys three points. First, AI construction is indeed pushing inflation, and this is not a short-term phenomenon. Second, market interest rates are tightening spontaneously, so the Fed can wait. Third, bets on a rate hike in October have further decreased.
The market reaction is somewhat warm. Rate hike expectations have cooled, the dollar weakened, and risk assets can catch a short-term breather. But don’t rush to be bullish. Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the key. ADP employment at 90,000 exceeded expectations; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will heat up again, making a sustained rebound in Bitcoin difficult. If it weakens, the probability of no action in October is higher.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, with fiscal deficits and bond supply pressure keeping this ceiling intact.
I took long Bitcoin positions at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, all of which I closed yesterday, now holding no position. I won’t bet on direction before the nonfarm data; I’ll wait for the data to settle before finding an entry. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
No chasing highs or selling lows, waiting for signals.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Potential Impact of Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls on BTC
📈 Bullish Logic (Short-Term Dominant)
· Cooling rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields fall → Opportunity cost of holding zero-yield assets decreases
· Weakening dollar → Dollar-denominated assets gain exchange rate support
· Shorts previously betting on "strong nonfarm → rate hike" may be forced to cover, creating a short squeeze
⚠️ Reverse Logic to Watch Out For
If the market interprets the 29,000 increase as a recession signal rather than simply "easing rate hike pressure," risk assets may instead come under pressure. QCP Capital has previously stated that this round of BTC rise is driven more by capital flows and positioning than by fundamental improvements. Weak employment data could trigger recession fears, causing funds to flow into the dollar and U.S. Treasuries rather than Bitcoin. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH $ZEC SKY rose about 15% in one day to around 0.093, and S&P just gave a stable outlook, so I'm not chasing for now.
Observed: OKX daily K opened around 0.081, high 0.095, low about 0.080, currently about 0.093, up roughly 15% from yesterday's close of about 0.081, with a noticeable increase in trading volume.
Same day catalyst: S&P Global released Sky's annual review on 10/2, highlighting strengthened treasury management, increased capital, and a stable outlook; recently Galaxy disclosed about $100 million sUSDS recorded as institutional collateral.
Simply put: This is a bullish sentiment candle driven by rating endorsement combined with large capital inventory narrative, not because the protocol suddenly earned a big chunk of fees today, nor should it be seen as deflation realized overnight.
I think short-term chasing this candle is unwise—the high of 0.095 is almost at the current price, so optimistic expectations are already priced in.
My approach: just observe without chasing the high, wait for a pullback or see if new funds follow at the Singapore summit on 10/6 before deciding.
If invalidated, watch for a break below today's low of about 0.080 to continue down, or if it can firmly hold above about 0.095 before considering joining.
Are you waiting for a pullback and capital follow-up before acting, or do you think the S&P stable outlook is strong enough to get in directly?
$SKY $ETH $BTC
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm$ATOM Tokenomics Reform: Shifting from "Inflation-Driven" to "Buyback + Burn"
This is the core variable determining ATOM's long-term price ceiling.
Implemented reforms: The maximum inflation parameter has been reduced from 20% to 10%, and the staking annual interest rate has dropped from 19% to 13.4%.
Key mechanisms underway:
· Osmosis Buyback Proposal: Cancel new ATOM minting and instead use DEX protocol revenue to buy back ATOM on the open market, with a total scale limit within 2.5% of the total supply. This proposal has entered the Cosmos Hub governance discussion phase.
· Proposal 868 (Minimum Inflation Reduced to 0%): The goal is to reduce the minimum inflation parameter from 7% to 0%. If passed, once the staking ratio reaches 67%, the inflation rate will approach 0% at a pace of 1% per year.
· Gauntlet Tokenomics Redesign: Phase one research found that ATOM's core issue is not inflation itself but the distribution and usage of new tokens. Phase two will focus on dynamic inflation, reducing liquidity rewards, and expanding staking utility.
Core logic of the reform: Shift ATOM from "paying validators through issuance" to "buying back and burning with protocol revenue." If the Osmosis buyback and zero inflation proposals are implemented, ATOM's supply side will undergo fundamental changes.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
#OKX全球资产便利店