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Trading for the past ten days, today was the most exhausting day.
$BTC held up against a $2500 drop today, currently still down about $700. If 85200 doesn't hold as support, it will soon enter the 83000-85000 consolidation range!
$ETH at 2702, short 20 ETH, with a maximum loss of $1500, luckily it showed some weakness, so I managed to exit and made a pork knuckle meal. If 2700 doesn't hold as support, it will soon enter the 2650-2695 consolidation range!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% BTC、ETH上涨的时候，$ZEC 跟着一起涨也就算了； 现在BTC、ETH都在回落，$ZEC 反而还在这里硬撑，甚至不断尝试往上推。 最让人疑惑的是，如果市场上大部分供应都集中在少数地址手里，那么这种高度集中的筹码结构到底意味着什么？ 如果长期不释放、不卖出，市场流通盘本身就会比较敏感。 但如果价格持续强势，又会让人忍不住思考：到底是谁在承接？又是谁在维持这种强势结构？ 当然，单凭价格走势并不能证明存在人为控盘，真正值得看的还是链上持仓变化、交易所流入流出以及大额地址的动态。 $ZEC 这波行情，确实越来越让人看不懂了。👀 #ZEC #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #DailyOrbit#200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 16
Today's account balance: 47.96, today -68.16 (-58.70%). Another night of a big drawdown.
Let's start with the good news. The $CT 10x long position opened yesterday took profit today, +4.96 (+58.66%). This is my highest single-trade return in Phase 2; yesterday's judgment paid off, riding the new coin's trend to a 58.66% gain.
Now the bad news, which is also the reason for today's significant account drawdown:
$SAND 20x, stop loss triggered, -8.22 (-105.07%). A 20x stop loss resulted in a 105% loss, meaning the entire principal was wiped out and then some.
$RESOLV 10x, stop loss triggered, -3.55 (-38.03%).
These three trades together today are my clearest lesson this month: with the same high leverage, CT 10x made 58.66%, while SAND 20x lost 105%. Both were my own trades, both exited by stop loss, the only difference was the leverage. Leverage is an amplifier when making money, but a meat grinder when losing.
I still hold a $SAND 5x short position (35.08 USDT, entry 0.06266), with stop loss already set.
The account has dropped from over a hundred after I re-deposited to 47.96. This rollercoaster ride has made me a bit dizzy, but I report the account honestly, not hiding a single trade.
The part I should scold myself most for today: after making money on CT, I got overconfident and went straight to 20x on SAND. The money earned from CT was lost and then some on SAND. This "getting carried away after a win" flaw, which I've written about many times, happened again today.
Let's discuss in the comments: do you find yourself increasing leverage on the next trade after a win?
Always use stop loss, low leverage, position management, and full disclosure of holdings. For reference only, not investment advice. #Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
Broadcom lent Anthropic $42 billion to pay for its chip rent to Broadcom.
▪️ The $42 billion is convertible notes that can be converted into Anthropic shares, covering about one-third of its five-year $125.2 billion TPU lease.
▪️ The chips are actually from Google; Broadcom only does co-design — it acts as designer, lessor, and lender simultaneously.
▪️ Broadcom expects AI chip revenue of $115 billion in 2027, with Anthropic as its largest customer next year.
▪️ The prospectus clearly states: in case of default, most lease obligations become immediately due, while also restricting access to the $42 billion.
▪️ IPO schedule: Investor day on October 14, listing before Thanksgiving on November 26, with valuation estimates between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion.
The disagreement is not about whether $42 billion is enough, but that the borrower and the lessor are the same entity — if things really go wrong, this money will actually be inaccessible.
The $42 billion accounts for only 2.5% of Broadcom's market value. During the 2000 telecom bubble, equipment vendors also lent money to customers to buy their own products — what do you think?目前仍然持有多头仓位，短线首先关注 87,300美元附近的区间上沿。 如果BTC能够有效突破并将 87.3K 转化为新的支撑位，那么后续可以继续关注： 🎯 TP1：87.3K 🎯 TP2：93K 🎯 TP3：96K–98K 如果行情进一步延伸，上方空间可能继续扩大，但关键还是看突破后的承接力度。 另一方面，如果BTC突破区间高点后继续向上测试 87.9K附近的周线nPOC，甚至进一步触及 88.23K，我会重点观察这里是否出现冲高回落。 如果价格重新跌回 87.3K下方，并确认突破失败，那么空头思路可能重新出现，目标重新关注此前的区间低点。 👀 目前最重要的不是追涨，而是观察 87.3K突破 → 回踩确认 → 是否站稳。 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSDT #DailyOrbit今日被涮 $LTC +3.90% | 吐槽定调 偏空 $LTC 现价 69.7，做空。3 倍杠杆，70.3 到 70.5 分批挂空，止损 71.3，第一目标 67.0，第二目标 65.6。理由不藏着：10 月 2 号下午两点那根 1 小时线，开盘 71.05 顶到 71.27，一根针直插 69.38 收在 69.65，单小时成交 630 万 U，是这 48 小时里最猛的一根量，全砸在派发上。庄家把价格拉到 71 上方哄追多的上车，转手一针扎下来，夯爆了那帮以为要突破的多头，连个反应机会都不给。15 年的老币了，玩起插针来比新盘还利索，数字白银的招牌都快被它晃成铁皮了。 $LTC 这走势得从 9 月 25 号说起。那天开盘 70.11，最高冲到 74.95，成交 1.17 亿 U，算是这七天最风光的一天，可收盘只站在 72.92，上影线长得像避雷针，明显有人在那儿出货。接下来五根阴线一根接一根往下淌：9 月 26 号跌 2.47% 收 71.12，27 号跌 1.52% 收 70.04，28 号最狠单日砸 3.68% 收 67.45，29 号跌 0.53% 收 67.1，30【Is leverage starting to rush ahead again in this BTC rally?】
$BTC has risen from about $83,500 on September 30 to around $86,500. The funding rate surged from about 3% to 10% in two days, and open interest (OI) increased from 626,000 to 653,000 contracts, an increase of about 27,000 contracts. On the surface, this looks like bulls re-entering the market, with price and OI rising together, indicating new positions are being taken.
But there is an important detail here: OI has just rebounded from a 12-month low, and 653,000 contracts are still some distance from the previous normal level of about 750,000 contracts. The current 10% funding rate looks more like a group of bulls willing to pay higher costs to chase the rally; the sentiment is hot, but it’s not yet a full-blown leverage runaway.
The spot market is actually more worth watching. In September, the US spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $2.65 billion, and on the first day of October, there was also about $103 million inflow, indicating that real money has not disappeared.
So my current view on this rally is that the core contradiction is this: spot funds are supporting the bottom, but contract leverage is starting to rush ahead. Today’s non-farm payrolls were clearly below expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to about 15%, and BTC has again risen above $86,000, making the short-term environment quite comfortable. But if the funding rate continues to stay high, OI keeps surging, and spot inflows can’t keep up, once this long crowd gets crowded, the pullback will be fierce.$BTC has already touched $87,000, the question is: can it truly break through this time?
Currently, the price has pulled back to around $85,500, indicating that the resistance above is still significant.
If it tests $87,000 again with a simultaneous increase in trading volume, it will be worth paying close attention to.
Conversely, if it rallies but then continues to fall back, losing the $84,000–$85,000 range again, the short-term trend may return to consolidation.
So my focus right now is very clear:
It's not about guessing whether it will rise or fall, but about seeing which $BTC level gets taken out first.
Levels are more important than sentiment. The patient lying on this operating table is not a person, but a heart undergoing decompensation—$UMA short-term RSI1H surged to 68.0, with the upper band position already reaching 118%, meaning the aortic pressure has pierced through the vessel wall, yet its long-term RSI is only 45.8, and the heart rate remains inert. This "localized high pressure, systemic low perfusion" hemodynamic pattern is typical of preload insufficiency combined with transient stress, not true recovery.
In 24H, it only rose 1.96%, but the price was pushed 0.3% beyond the short-term upper Bollinger Band—pseudo pulsation caused by a micro dose of vasopressor. On the mid-term cycle, the price is at the 80th percentile, with a 3.1% buffer from the lower band. The compliance of the two heart chambers has already diverged; going long at this time is like stitching on the tear of an aortic dissection.
My diagnosis is: the systolic peak pressure has passed, next comes diastolic collapse. Post-operation, a drainage channel must be established.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.38 (current price +3.2%, i.e., after rebound confirming jugular vein distension before catheterization)
Take Profit 1: 0.34 (-5.4%, first suture point)
Take Profit 2: 0.35 (-3.0%, backup suture)
Stop Loss: 0.42 (+15.2%, once breached, indicates ventricular fibrillation rather than transient stress, immediately terminate the operation)
Note that the stop loss requires a 15.2% extracorporeal circulation margin, which precisely indicates this entry’s tolerance window is extremely narrow; this is not a routine bypass but an emergency thoracotomy. Without this 15.2% blood reserve, the operation should not proceed.
The lesion is not in the price rise or fall, but in the mismatch between momentum and structure. When the short-term RSI 68.0 cannot drive the long-term RSI from 45.8 upward, it indicates the main blood supply trunk is still blocked. Such a patient may have a heartbeat on the monitor one second, and no pulse activity the next.
Target 2 is set at 0.35, closer than Target 1 at 0.34; this arrangement itself suggests: suture the superficial layer first, then decide whether to suture deeper.$$BTC Everyone knows the narrative: October is supposed to be bullish for Bitcoin. But what if this time, the market does the opposite? As I explained in my previous post, I’m comparing the current structure with previous bearish-cycle structures. The key difference is timing. The current structure is developing in a similar way, but Bitcoin is currently only around the middle of the sequence. The full structure has not played out yet, and the true cycle bottom has not been formed. Look at AuguStarting with the night session's top gainers, the most eye-catching right now is $MAGIC—perpetual around 0.0646, up about 22% from the 24-hour open at 0.0530, with a daily high of 0.0665 and a daily low of 0.0529. Contract volume is nearly 180 million U.
Open interest nominally around one million dollars, with a slightly negative fee rate. BTC is hovering around 85,500, and ETH is about 2694. Altcoin night session sentiment remains hot; short-term focus is on the 0.062 area—don't let go easily, chasing highs can lead to losses.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC #MAGIC #TopGainers #Altcoins #NightSession #USSeptemberNonFarmPayrollsOnlyUp29KUnemploymentRateRisesTo4.2% #BTCETHSpotETFsSimultaneousOutflowsFundsCoolDown #USBondYieldsHitNewHighsLongTermRatePressureUnrelieved #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, trade cautiously. At this point, holding this long position and taking the hit really feels a bit frustrating.
After $ETH surged to 2777.70, it immediately reversed and dropped. I entered a long position, and now I'm stuck with unrealized losses. I originally thought it could rally again riding the market momentum, but the selling pressure above was so fierce that the bulls' relay was completely broken.
The hourly indicators are quickly moving downwards, RSI has already dropped to a low level, showing a slight desire for a short-term rebound, but the heavy selling pressure hasn't been fully absorbed yet. It's now stuck around 2696, with the key support at 2672 below. If that doesn't hold, it will continue to retrace deeper.
Bitcoin has started to fluctuate and pull back from the highs, and Ethereum lacks the strength to independently rally. When the market takes a breather, it falls faster than anyone else. Many chased longs at the top and are stuck inside just like me. The market just doesn't follow the majority's expectations.
I'm not blindly cutting losses now, nor am I casually adding positions. After a high-level surge and pullback, don't rush to bet on an immediate reversal; wait for clear signals from the market before making plans. In crypto trading, getting stuck in positions is normal, so don't let your mindset collapse first.
Damn, holding through this is really tough.
Follow me, those who understand will understand.
This is just market observation and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC $ETH $XAU actually fell!
The non-farm payroll data came out, and it was very weak.
According to the old logic:
The Federal Reserve might cut interest rates,
so gold and cryptocurrencies should rise.
But BTC, ETH, and gold fell, while the US stock semiconductor sector's AI concept surged.
Why is this?
It shows the market panicked first—fearing an economic recession.
Quickly selling assets to convert to dollars to cover margin for other assets.
Gold and crypto are easy to sell, so they were hit first.
Plus, with the dollar strengthening and interest rates still high,
holding these non-yielding assets is not worthwhile,
and crypto itself is fragile, so when it falls, it follows the trend.
Why did US semiconductor and AI stocks rise instead?
Because the expectation of rate cuts lowers interest rates,
reducing valuation pressure on tech stocks;
more importantly, AI is booming,
and companies like Nvidia have solid earnings and stories.
After funds fled gold and crypto,
they didn’t stay idle but turned to buy profitable tech leaders.
In short:
The weak non-farm data doesn’t mean the market blindly buys rate cuts,
but looks at who can make money.
Gold and crypto have no interest and are being drained;
semiconductors and AI have earnings and are supported by funds.
One falls, the other rises.Even though I'm bullish, I still hope $OKB drops a bit! As a HODLer, it's really frustrating when it won't go down! My current position is too light, I want to add more but don't want to do it above $120. The current trend and volume both show some signs of topping out, but my gut tells me this might be a bear trap. I really can't think of any group of people who would sell $OKB at $120; instead, people like me who are eager to get in should be the majority. $OKB has no weaknesses from any perspective, and its market cap is low. I believe it's a seriously undervalued platform token, so wanting it to pull back 10% is really tough!A while ago, I was scrolling through my phone late at night and saw someone say just hold $BTC. On a whim, I downloaded an app, spent a long time verifying, and after buying, my hands were shaking. When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell; when it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more. After a week of messing around, I lost quite a bit in fees. Later, a colleague talked about $ETH, saying it was a bit more stable. I followed the trend and bought in, but it stayed flat for half a month. Every day it was the same when I opened the app. I just couldn’t take it and sold. A few days after selling, it started moving. I stared at the screen and kept hitting my leg. Then I randomly looked at $SOL, bought it, and got stuck. It was stuck for almost two months, and my account was turning green (losing money) making me anxious. The day I broke even, I immediately sold. After selling, it jumped up again. I chuckled and closed the app. Now I don’t mess around anymore. I only play with spare money, don’t touch contracts, don’t borrow money, and don’t listen to trading tips. If I make money, I treat myself to a good meal; if I lose, I consider it tuition. I check at most twice a day. Being able to sleep soundly at night is better than anything. This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quickly. Just treat it as a high-risk hobby and don’t put your life on the line. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $ETH 目前在 2,699美元附近，开仓均价约 2,701.99美元，仓位暂时处于浮盈状态。与此同时，$AAVE 的空头仓位仍在承受一定浮亏。 现在市场处于高位震荡阶段，多头持续推进的力度似乎有所减弱。前期部分山寨币快速拉升后，短线获利盘和杠杆风险都值得关注，市场随时可能出现较大幅度的波动。 $ETH 已经率先出现一定回落迹象，这让空头重新看到了一些机会。不过目前多空博弈依旧激烈，我更倾向于等待后续价格和成交量进一步确认，而不是单纯押注一根大阴线。 📌 当前市场几个值得关注的变量： • 🇺🇸 美国9月非农就业数据明显低于预期 • 📊 BTC、ETH现货ETF资金流向出现降温迹象 • 💵 美债收益率仍处于高位，长期利率压力尚未完全缓解 • ⚠️ 高杠杆仓位面临较大的快速波动和清算风险 接下来重点观察 $ETH 能否继续走弱，以及关键支撑失守后市场是否出现更明显的空头动能。 #ETH #BTC #AAVE #Crypto #Ethereum #Bitcoin今天的非农数据确实有点“离谱”——美国9月非农就业仅增加 2.9万人，明显低于市场约 8.4万–9万人的预期；失业率也从4.1%升至 4.2%，同时7月和8月就业数据合计被下修6万人。平均时薪环比仅增长 0.1%，同比增速放缓至 3.0%。 至于这份数据到底是不是“失真”，其实没必要纠结。 市场真正关注的是：就业明显降温，会不会进一步压低美联储短期继续加息的必要性？ 简单理解： 🔹 如果数据确实反映经济降温 → 美联储客观上缺少继续加息的理由； 🔹 如果数据受到季节性调整等因素影响 → 市场同样可能借此降低对10月加息的预期。 目前市场反应已经比较明显：就业数据公布后，美债收益率回落，市场对10月加息的押注进一步下降，风险资产获得喘息空间。 对 $BTC 来说，这种组合短线偏友好： 弱就业 → 加息预期下降 → 美债收益率承压 → 流动性压力缓和 → BTC获得支撑。 BTC也一度重新冲上 $87,000附近，随后回落至 $85,000上下，说明市场正在消化这份非农，而不是单纯追涨。 所以现在更值得观察的不是“非农是真是假”，而是： BTC能否守住 $83K–$84K，并重新站稳 When looking at this potential Cup and Handle playing out for $ALGO, the typical retracement for the handle is the swing low to swing high .382 fib. It still has a bit to get there but does not have to.
The lowest the bottom of a handle can go and be a legitimate C&H structure is the .5. Lastly, C&H's are only valid if at least 7 weeks in development, which this is. Let's see how it continues to play out.Tonight, the September non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, with an increase of only 29,000 versus the expected 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth was also lower than estimated. After the data release, the market immediately lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and BTC rallied accordingly, surging close to 87,000 before slightly pulling back.
From a technical perspective, the previously repeatedly tested resistance zone of 85,000-85,500 was broken through with strong volume, turning the original resistance into short-term support, now around 85,500~86,000. The short-term resistance above is at 87,500. After this sharp rally, a lot of profit-taking positions have accumulated, making it difficult to break through in one go, with a high probability of consolidation at the top. As long as the price holds above 85,500 on pullbacks, the bullish structure will remain stable. If it falls below this level, it will return to range-bound oscillation.
ETH remains the same, following BTC with much weaker momentum and unable to keep up with BTC’s gains. Resistance is at 2,820, support at 2,730. Without independent capital entering, it can only passively follow the overall market fluctuations.
Trading strategy: Do not chase the impulsive rise triggered by the news at high levels. Wait for the price to pull back to support and observe the absorption before considering buying the dip. Once it breaks through and holds above 87,500, or falls below 85,500, adjust operations accordingly.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Who should we trade contracts for now?
Overall, $ETH looks better after risk adjustment, with capital inflow and more controllable volatility, so prioritize $ETH contracts this round. But $BTC at the double top resistance of 85,633 is also a good shorting position. Two approaches:
Plan A Conservative: Long $ETH, enter at 2,650-2,680, stop loss at 2,620, target 2,749 / 2,780, 3x leverage. Risk-reward ratio 2.3 / 3.2. Play it safe and ride the $ETH capital inflow trend.
Plan B Recommended: Short $BTC, place orders at 85,400-85,633, stop loss at 86,400, target 83,500 / 82,500, 5x leverage. Risk-reward ratio 2.3 / 3.4. Short at $BTC double top resistance, clear structure and comfortable risk-reward.
Plan C Aggressive: Limit short $BTC at 85,633 + limit short $ETH at 2,749 simultaneously, stop loss at 86,200 / 2,760 respectively, target $BTC 82,500 / $ETH 2,634, 8x leverage. Risk-reward ratio 3.4 / 4.5. Short both resistance levels together; if both break, admit the mistake. Not for the faint-hearted.【Skill issued a 2B short signal near today's highest point】 and then it started to plunge! 【Of course, I personally will never short before 2029-2030】 This trend is as expected! What’s next? Guidance has been issued! Capital Flow: ETF Turns to Inflow, but Structure Remains "Unbalanced"
ETF—Net Inflow of $103 Million, Ending Single-Day Outflow
On October 1, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $102.7 million, quickly reversing the previous day's outflow of $148.7 million. BlackRock IBIT led with an inflow of $196 million, Grayscale Mini Trust saw an inflow of $14.59 million, while Fidelity FBTC experienced an outflow of $60.73 million. The total net asset value of ETFs stands at $109.338 billion, with a cumulative net inflow of $57.598 billion.
This is not a broad institutional return—IBIT alone contributed all the inflows, offsetting FBTC's outflows, with funds still concentrating on leading products. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 PK Day | Verdict on $ETH, who won this round?
$ETH won this round—not because it rose more, but because it was steadier. $BTC gained +0.51% over the week, slightly more than $ETH's +0.37%, but $BTC's volatility at 18% is double $ETH's 9%. The Sharpe ratio of $ETH at 3.10 crushes $BTC's 2.11. More importantly, where is the money flowing: $ETH had a net inflow of 38.1 million U over the week, while $BTC saw an outflow of 27.6 million U—smart money voted with their feet for $ETH. The whales are dodging around $BTC, while $ETH quietly accumulates; this time, the steady ones are taking the profits.
Who earns more can endure more
In the 6-day window, $BTC's return of +0.51% slightly beats $ETH's +0.37%, but $BTC's maximum drawdown of 1.2% is nearly twice $ETH's 0.7%—earning more but also falling more, leverage only turns drawdowns into liquidation traps.
Looking at the normalized return curves, $BTC plunged deeply on 9/28 and bounced high on 10/01, with large swings like a roller coaster; $ETH moved more smoothly over the week, like taking a walk. Choose $BTC if you seek thrills, choose $ETH if you want a good night's sleep. To truly outperform, $ETH can't just rely on the overall market rally. If on-chain fees, stablecoin activity, and institutional allocations all recover together, capital will revalue it; if these indicators don't keep up, the rebound is likely to remain weaker than $BTC. I tend to wait for relative strength to pick up before adding more, and stop if it falls back into the range. Expert: Learning to read news is more important than staring at K-lines — key points and how to observe Many people entering the crypto space first learn K-lines, indicators, and drawing lines. But true experts will tell you: learning to read news, gather information, and understand financial knowledge is far more important than just learning to read K-lines. K-lines reflect past prices and current sentiment, while news determines capital flows, valuation logic, and future direction. The sharp rises and falls you see are often just the results after news is digested. 1. Why news is more important than K-lines K-lines are the effect; news is the cause. When non-farm payroll data unexpectedly drops, the Fed's rate hike expectations plummet, and Bitcoin surges nearly 3% within an hour with $27.5 million in short positions liquidated. When the CLARITY Act fails in the Senate, Bitcoin falls below $75,000 that day. These fluctuations originate not in the K-lines but in the news. Only looking at K-lines means you are always finding reasons after the fact; understanding news allows you to anticipate where capital will flow. 2. Key observation areas recommended by experts First, the Federal Reserve and interest rate path. This is the biggest macro variable in the current crypto market. Focus on the CME FedWatch rate hike probabilities, FOMC statement wording, dot plot changes, and the three major data points: CPI, PCE, and non-farm payrolls. Don’t just look at the numbers themselves; look at the gap between the numbers and expectations. For example, non-farm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September versus an expected 84,000 — this huge expectation gap is the real reason for the market’s sharp reaction. Second, U.S. Treasury yields and dollar liquidity. Whether the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizes above 5%, No breakthrough, no establishment; it's the same formula again. The surge to 87000 still faced market pressure. This position remains as strong as ever. Fortunately, the strategy was clear and effective. The long position during the day passed all tests, successfully reaching the target of 87000. During this period, everyone was reminded to take profits and exit. The intraday long position on Bitcoin won twice in a row. After successfully closing the 84500 long in the morning with a gain of over 2000 points, the market briefly faced pressure and correction in the afternoon. Following the trend, we went long again. After the non-farm payroll data was released in the evening, the market stretched as expected, probing near 87200, reminding everyone to decisively take profits.
Currently, the market rhythm is mainly focused on correction. The rally volume was blocked and fell back, with market pressure rising again. On the four-hour chart, the strong seven consecutive bullish candles structure was interrupted. After a brief continuation of the rally, market pressure returned and prices fell back. The short-term bulls have lost strength. With the weekend approaching, the market's need for correction continues to stimulate activity. Therefore, for short-term positioning, we follow the trend and wait for a pullback to meet correction demand.
For Bitcoin shorts, watch the pullback near 84500; Ethereum follows closely, watching around 2679.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH What multiple clients truly protect against is the same bug hitting everyone.
Ethereum's execution layer and consensus layer each have multiple independent clients implemented by different teams using different languages and code structures to realize the same protocol. If one client has a defect, other implementations may still produce correct results, giving the network a chance to respond without a complete shutdown. The premise is that the share cannot be overly concentrated in a single implementation; otherwise, "multiple options" is just a diverse list, not diverse operation. Client diversity also increases testing and coordination costs, as every upgrade must confirm consistent boundary conditions, which is exactly the security cost Ethereum is willing to bear. For $ETH, multiple clients cannot guarantee never making mistakes, but they can reduce the probability of a single software bug controlling the entire network simultaneously. Health assessment should be based on the actual node distribution, failover, and version adoption, not just how many names are listed on the official website.
Operators who actively choose minority clients are buying insurance for the entire network but may bear higher maintenance costs. If the ecosystem only rewards short-term convenience without supporting such choices, diversity will gradually be eroded by efficiency.
A software list is not security; real usage distribution is security.
Diversity must be reflected in real nodes. $ETH Follower
$ETH current price 2,705, grinding within the 2,634-2,749 range this week, weaker than $BTC — the weekly high of 2,749 (9/29) failed to hold and retracted. After dropping to the weekly low of 2,634 on 9/28, it bounced back. OI saw 96 million U flow out during 9/29-9/30, then 90 million returned on 10/1 — money came back but price only rose 1%, same as $BTC. Short-term play with $ETH: short on rebound at 2,720-2,749, stop loss at 2,760, target 2,650; only a break below 2,634 tells a new story. Bias: bearish, short on rebounds. $BTC How to read this chart
Looking at the main chart, on 9/28 a large bearish candle smashed down to 82,500, the weekly low, with a volume of 1.31 billion U, the highest of the week, indicating panic selling was fully unleashed. On 9/29-30, it bounced up to touch 85,633 but was pushed back down to 83,577; the long upper shadow indicates a supply zone above 85,633, where bulls were rejected. On 10/1, it closed at 84,830, inching upward but still about 800 points short of 85,633.
Looking at the trendline: the descending resistance line connects the 9/30 peak at 85,633 to the 10/01 secondary high at 85,265, with a nearly flat but downward slope, pressing down from above; the predicted rebound targets are T1 around 85,231 (midpoint between current price and resistance) and T2 around 84,776 (1% below resistance), indicating the rebound space is very compressed; an alternative pullback target is 80,850 (2% below support at 82,500). After MA3 crossed below MA5 on 9/30, it turned back up on 10/1, with moving averages tangled and directionless.
Funding rate climbed from 0.0017% on 9/26 to 0.0065% on 10/1, showing bulls are adding leverage but far from extreme levels (extreme is usually above 0.03%). Conclusion: Short if 85,633 is not broken; if broken, switch to long.From July's +21,000 directly revised to -10,000, and August cut from 162,000 to 133,000, a total reduction of 60,000 over two months. September is even more extreme, reporting only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I just want to ask, what exactly happened in the US in September? Could the mid-September rate hike really have knocked the job market down directly? The effect is so immediate? Don't forget, the current Labor Statistics Bureau chief was newly appointed by Trump and only took office in mid-August, barely settled in before starting to drastically revise data? Once the data came out, US Treasury yields dropped in response, and US stocks hit new highs again. This pattern is exactly the same as in September: the media loudly shouts "no rate hike," but in the end, they hike anyway. This month might replay the same scenario, saying no hike verbally, but not stopping in action. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Following up on our previous study. Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory along the black ascending trendline, holding firm above its green bull market support band following the confirmation of a golden cross structure. However, while price action is printing higher highs along the black trendline, the RSI indicator is displaying lower highs beneath a black descending trendline, establishing a clear negative divergence. This divergence indicates weakening momentum and highlights the potenti📉期 非农数据公布后的第一轮行情已经逐渐冷却，市场情绪开始回归理性。BTC早盘一度冲上 87,600美元附近，随后回落至 85,400美元一带；ETH整体表现偏弱，继续围绕 2,700美元附近横盘。SOL相对强势，涨幅约 2%+，但成交量并没有明显放大，暂时还看不到强力资金持续推动的迹象。 从盘面结构来看，这一轮上涨更像是宏观数据落地后的空头回补+情绪释放，而不是持续性的现货主动买盘推动。因此，短线冲高之后出现回吐并不意外。 接下来市场没有FOMC等重大事件，整体更可能进入数据消化与区间震荡阶段。真正值得关注的，不是今天能不能再次冲高，而是BTC能否在周末期间继续站稳 85,000美元上方。 此前 85K附近的抛压刚刚被消化。如果BTC能够稳住这里，前面的突破结构仍有继续观察的空间；但如果周末重新跌回85K下方，那么此前突破的有效性就需要重新评估。 🔎 周末重点位置： • BTC支撑：84,800–85,000美元 • 下方关键区域：83,800–84,200美元 • 上方压力：86,500–87,600美元 • ETH：关注2,680–2,750美元区间 • SOL：关注118–$BTC
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls exploded.
The market expected 90,000, but the actual number was only 29,000. The previous value was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was directly revised from +21,000 to -10,000. A net downward revision of 60,000 over two months, with employment growth almost zero. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, also higher than the expected 4.1%.
This is not a slowdown; it is the prelude to a hard landing.
Before the data was released, the market had already cut the probability of an October rate hike from 70% a week ago to about 25%. After the data came out, Kalshi's market pricing forecast showed the probability of the Federal Reserve holding steady in October soaring directly to 85%.
The Fed's blade is temporarily sheathed.
The crypto market reacted very quickly. After the nonfarm payrolls were announced, BTC briefly broke through $87,000, and ETH stood above $2,750. Within 24 hours, ETH rose 2.82%, and BTC rose over 2%.
But the real signal is not in tonight's candlestick.
Looking back at yesterday, something interesting already happened. Bitcoin ETFs ended a streak of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, with a total of $3.1 billion in funds choosing to take profits and exit before the nonfarm payrolls. Institutions are reducing positions to cash out, while short-term speculative funds are stepping in to buy. ETF outflows, yet the coin price is rising.
Weak data, rate hike pause, staking lock-up, institutional accumulation. Four things resonated on the same night. Damn! The Blast project (Ethereum Layer 2) officially announced it will shut down the network.
The official statement on X said the project's initial goal was to build a self-sustaining chain serving users and developers. However, operating costs have exceeded the revenue generated by L2, and there is no economically sustainable path for the chain. Therefore, they decided to gradually shut down and prioritize the safe exit of assets.
The main arrangements are as follows:
Users are requested to withdraw all on-chain assets and balances in the Blast PWA back to the Ethereum mainnet.
Withdrawal waiting time will be shortened to 24 hours.
Before shutdown, Blast will first handle the Lido assets it holds, expected to take about a week. During this period, withdrawals will be temporarily unavailable, even though the waiting time has been shortened to 24 hours.
After the Lido asset exit is completed, withdrawals will resume with a 24-hour delay.
The deadline for withdrawals through the regular interface is October 26, 2026.
After the deadline, assets can still be withdrawn but require direct interaction with the Blast bridge contract on Ethereum L1; specific operation instructions will be announced before the deadline.
The official team apologizes to users and developers who supported the ecosystem and reminds to beware of impersonation accounts; the official account is @BLAST. According to reports, about 63.5 million USD in assets remain in its regulated bridge.Main focus $BTC | Strategy: Short by unloading the position first
$BTC current price 84,830, trading back and forth within the 82,500-85,633 range this week, the ceiling at 85,633 was pressed down twice — on 9/27 it touched 85,146 then pulled back quickly, on 9/30 it surged to 85,633 then closed with a long upper shadow and dropped back to 83,577. The market makers are very slick with their "flash steps" above, whoever chases longs ends up taking the hit. Direction: short between 85,400-85,633, stop loss at 86,400 (about 0.9% above the 9/30 high of 85,633), first target 83,500, second target 82,500 weekly low, 5x leverage. Reason in one sentence: two attempts to break the top were rejected twice, OI has been flowing out for four days about 270 million U, only replenished 240 million on 10/1 — some money returned but still short of full strength, resistance level shorting has a favorable risk-reward ratio. Last night I couldn't resist checking the market again
Just a glance made me want to close it
$BTC is still the same old story
Goes up one day, down two days
I was the earliest one trapped by it
Back then I knew nothing
Heard people say just hold on
When I held it, it dropped
When I sold, it slowly climbed back
Later a friend advised me to look at $ETH
Said this one is at least a bit more stable
I bought it and it just went sideways
So sideways it made me yawn every day
Made a breakfast's worth of profit and ran
After I left, it moved a bit again
Saying I wasn't upset would be a lie
Then I messed around on my own
Got into $SOL
Bought it and got stuck immediately
Stuck for almost two months
Every day opening my account showed red
The day I broke even I sold immediately
After selling, it surged again
I smiled a little
Deleted the app and reinstalled it
Now I only play with spare money
No contracts
No borrowing
No following tips
If I earn, I treat myself well
If I lose, I consider it tuition
I check at most twice a day
Sleeping well at night is better than anything
This thing isn't a path to get rich quick for ordinary people
Just treat it as a high-risk hobby
Don't put your life on the line#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 m stocks opened high and then fell, the positive non-farm payroll data was fully priced in, resulting in scalp trading; these 1000+ points are basically free spending for the National Day holiday, with both bulls and bears taking profits950,000 $SOL suddenly unstaked, and that's not a small number.
To conclude: I don't think this is a dump, but it definitely deserves attention.
An unknown wallet withdrew $SOL worth $116 million from staking at 11 PM last night.
Simply put, staking means locking coins to earn interest. Now, the person who locked them is actively unlocking, either preparing to move the funds or feeling it's not profitable to keep them locked.
The key point: looking at this single transaction alone, it can't be directly considered a sell-off.
What really needs to be watched is what happens next—if these coins continue to move to exchanges, then the selling pressure should be taken seriously.
Many project teams are also monitoring such large unstaking events because the staking amount of $SOL has always been an emotional indicator.
Before the money moves, it's all speculation.
At this point, I'm not rushing to make a judgment, but if you ask me whether to panic, honestly, I'd rather know where this wallet transfers the coins next.
Hasn't there been quite a few large unstaking events in the circle recently?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10% $SOL #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT
Leader has something to say
Today, the long position on Bitcoin was held at the 86000 level, and a short position was opened at 86500.
The logic for the long position is very clear. The non-farm payroll data was comprehensively below expectations, with a September increase of 29,000, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and wage growth of 3.0%, causing the rate hike expectations to cool down directly. Bitcoin was pulled up from around 83000, and the long position was held all the way to 86000.
Why reverse to short at 86500? This level is near the previous high resistance zone, and the positive impact of the non-farm data has already been priced in. After the data release, Bitcoin rose sharply, and short-term profit-taking is expected, making a pullback after the peak likely.
Stop loss is set at 87500; if it passes this, it indicates a strong bullish breakout, and it's best to cut losses and exit. The target is in the 84500 to 85000 range, where positions should be reduced, leaving the rest at breakeven. Position control is important; avoid heavy positions.
The short position logic is a short-term bet on a pullback, not a reversal. The positive effect of the non-farm data is fully reflected, and there is dense resistance above, so a short test is made. If wrong, lose 1000 points; if right, gain over 1000 points, which is a good risk-reward ratio. $BTC
Do not chase the rise or kill the fall; set stop losses properly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, and stop losses must be set properly. Good luck. $ETH $ZEC Tonight at 20:30, the US non-farm payroll data will be released. It is lower than market expectations, reducing the probability of a rate hike, which is positive for gold $XAU
Gold has indeed shown the expected reaction, with the price breaking through the $4200 mark in one go, clearly showing a breakout trend following the macro direction.
But the strange thing is what happened afterward. After breaking through 4200, gold entered a correction, which is normal; but this correction kept falling all the way, and in the end even fell below the starting point. What does that mean?
What’s going on? Is there some unknown news about gold? Why can’t it rally despite such a big positive non-farm payroll report? Instead, it was quickly hammered down as soon as it went up...
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 0.36 ETH stolen, 1.4B validators exit: Linea Yield Boost says "money hasn't moved," but yields are already crippled
MetaMask Staking incident, the most surreal scene in the blockchain space: on-chain analysis estimates that the fee recipient for about 18 blocks was changed to a mixing address, stealing approximately 0.36 ETH in block rewards; as a result, MetaMask directly pushed the affected Ethereum validators into the exit queue, with external estimates of about 17,000 validators and 523,000 ETH (approximately 1.4 billion USD).
Linea immediately responded: validators supporting the Yield Boost vault exited for security reasons; the vault's funds and control remain unaffected, users' principal is intact, and withdrawal rights are not relinquished. $BTC $AAVE were below yesterday, with a daily doji candlestick, oscillating around 83000. Most in the crypto community are bearish. The day before yesterday, there was a sudden surge to 85800, then a rapid drop. I said at the time, you can confidently go long. I also explained the advantage of the way the 'dog whale' moves; you can check my previous posts. Yesterday I said not to be bearish; it will definitely go to 87000. This morning, seeing some weakness in the market, I placed a take-profit order at 84800, which triggered before the price went up. Then it oscillated above 86000 all day. I said this wave is stable; this is the real risk point. This wave might only hit a secondary high, so I decisively entered a short position to observe. If it can't break 86000 in the next couple of days, it means this wave is forming a double top, and a major crash is coming. This is the final 5th wave!!!The US only added 29,000 jobs in September
But why are Bitcoin and gold prices rising?
Last month, the US only added 29,000 jobs.
The expectation was 90,000.
Yet Bitcoin rose, and gold also went up.
The unemployment data looks bad, but the coins rose, isn't that ridiculous?
Short-term traders want to die, and those shorting want to die even more.
Think about it carefully, this is nothing new.
This is how the market plays now,
Bad data = central bank has to ease = coins will rise.
Good data means no one buys.
This logic is very counterintuitive and hard to understand.
To put it simply, what’s rising isn’t the economy, it’s because everyone is gambling that money will get cheaper.
Does this logic hold? Is this a good reason?
Here’s the problem: can this logic be used forever? No.
The first time bad news is good news, the second time still good news, but the third time it becomes bad news.
In other words: this is called "good news exhausted." Using bad news as good news can’t last long.
What you’re seeing now isn’t a signal, it’s inertia. It’s just that no one has reacted yet.
And here’s a harsher truth: those who were liquidated yesterday were the bears.
But think about it, were they wrong? Were they wrong?
No.
Employment is indeed weak, the economy is indeed cooling, debt is high,
They were just... too early.
Being one or two days early means losing your position and your money.
This is the harshest part of this market.
This is how I view the initial question. Nonfarm Payrolls Shock at 29,000: October Rate Hike Off the Table, BTC Retraces Breakout Level
Data: September added 29,000 nonfarm jobs, expected 84,000, less than one-third; unemployment rate 4.2%, rising for the first time in seven months; average hourly earnings up 0.1% month-over-month, no secondary inflation pressure. August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000. The labor market is not cooling down, it’s stalling.
Transmission is very clear: weak nonfarm → rate hike expectations cool down → 10Y yield falls from 5.35% to 5.23% → dollar weakens → risk assets rise together. A classic "bad news is good news" scenario.
QQQ closed at 751.18, up 1.23%, hitting a 52-week high. The Nasdaq is the biggest beneficiary of the rate cut trade, with the longest duration and highest sensitivity to interest rates. But "bad news is good news" has limits: if conditions worsen next month, the narrative will shift from "rate cut trade" to "recession trade," and QQQ will be the first to be repriced.
Gold at 4,185, up 0.7%. Real rates falling plus safe haven demand (US-Iran tensions, French fiscal crisis) create a dual bullish case. But gains are restrained: since the 5,318 peak at the start of the year, it has been digesting and is down 11% year-to-date.
BTC: Broke through 85,518 during the day, surged to 87,220, then retreated to 85,556 in the evening, just retracing the breakout level. The 87,220 area is a supply zone before the September high of 87,397, so profit-taking is normal. The key is not the pullback but the level: 85,500–84,800 is the watershed; holding this means the breakout is valid, with targets at 87,397 and then 90,000; falling below means today’s gains are wasted.
Next: October 14 CPI, October 27–28 FOMC. October rate hikes are off the table; what remains to watch is whether this "weakness" is just right or the eve of a recession.Originally, everyone was waiting for the non-farm payrolls to give direction, but after the data was released, ETH did not experience the expected sharp decline. Instead, the market once rallied upward before returning to consolidation. Currently, ETH is repeatedly trading sideways around $2,750, with bulls and bears clearly locked in a tug of war. Although short positions remain, there is no obvious sign of concentrated short covering yet, and the price stubbornly refuses to fall. This kind of movement is putting increasing time pressure on the shorts. The latest non-farm payrolls show that US September non-farm employment increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of about 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data showed clear weakness, US Treasury yields fell, market expectations for further short-term rate hikes cooled, and risk assets received some support. Meanwhile, ETH itself has shown some notable divergence: the US spot Ethereum ETF has recently seen continuous outflows, with a net outflow of about $55.37 million on October 1, indicating that spot capital has not fully turned strong. So now ETH looks more like this: Weak news → price does not fall Shorts remain → but no trend-driven sell-off Bulls have not fully erupted → yet price holds at a key area The focus next is whether the $2,700–$2,750 range can continue to hold and whether the rebound can retake $2,800. If the price stubbornly refuses to fall, the cost and time pressure on shorts will gradually increase; conversely, if key support is lost, consolidation will continue.What? Scared again, can't control your hands, and want to run halfway, right? You want to run at the slightest pullback, what big things can you achieve?
Did you see the non-farm data? September added only 29,000 jobs, the expectation was 90,000, and the previous value was revised down by 60,000. The unemployment rate directly rose to 4.2%. As soon as the data came out, traders immediately cut their bets on a Fed rate hike in October from a high level to less than 30%.
This macro thunder is really breaking things apart this time.
$ETH price rose from around 2705 before the non-farm announcement to above 2747, with a 24-hour increase close to 2.3%. On the 1-hour level, the price has stood back above all short-term moving averages, with a bullish alignment intact. The first line of defense below is 2670, and 2630-2640 is a thicker support zone.
On the order book, there is indeed a sell wall around 2710, with the order volume accounting for 44% of the total volume of the top five sell orders, so a bit of short-term grinding is normal. But what kind of pullback is this? This isn't even a shakeout, at most it's just a breather at a high level. ETH has already risen 57% in Q3, digesting some profit-taking at this position is very healthy.
You are rock solid when losing a few hundred dollars, but panic and can't sleep when floating profit is just a few dozen dollars. The core problem is one: you have no plan and trade purely on emotion.
The structure is intact, the trend is unbroken, the non-farm data brought macro benefits, and you want to run? Hold your positions, set your stop loss properly, and leave the rest to the trend. The path to 4000 won't change direction because of today's few dozen points of fluctuation.Just checked my wallet,
and actually found a wallet with Blast @blast tokens $YOLO,
I have no idea how I got them.
Checked the price, worth $5,500 at TGE, now $25 ……
Thanks, I can get some KFC tomorrow.🤣Brothers, as soon as the nonfarm payroll data came out tonight, I was completely stunned.
US September nonfarm employment only increased by 29,000, while the expectation was 90,000, and the previous value was 162,000. This data is basically a cliff-like collapse. Once the data was released, BTC immediately surged like it took a stimulant, shooting up from around 83,000 to as high as 87,000 USD, rising over 3% intraday.
But me? I was holding a short position on BTC at 82,707, watching it rush to 85,456, with an unrealized loss of -84 USD, I was totally shocked. And that’s not even the most frustrating part, the most frustrating is DOGE.
My DOGE short was opened at 0.0922, but this damn DOGE went crazy along with BTC, directly soaring to 0.0947, with an unrealized loss of -47 USD. Usually it plays dead on the ground, but at the slightest movement it runs faster than anyone else. When going long it doesn’t rise, but when shorting it gets more aggressive than anyone.
Look at the liquidation data, it’s even more heartbreaking: in the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated 357 million USD, shorts accounted for 272 million, and BTC short liquidations were 145 million. In just ten minutes, 110 million USD of shorts were liquidated. This is not a market, this is a public execution of the bears.
What’s the most disgusting? The data is so bad, logically the economy is weak, risk assets should fall. But the market logic is completely reversed—poor employment means lower rate hike expectations, the Fed has to ease, so all the funds rush into crypto.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$ETH
$BTC $DOGE $XAU Gold has been weak recently, with lower lows. You can gradually buy in at 4140-4115. I've realized that with gold, you really can't hold a position too long; if you hold on after gaining forty or fifty points, the profit quickly disappears. Of course, the long-term outlook is still bullish on gold, but when trading contracts, it's best to take profits quickly and run. Securing profits and maintaining steady gains is the key!$ARB has retraced 91% from the 2.39 high. It fell back from a +46% weekly gain to 0.20, and even more painfully, third-party safety and compliance ratings gave it a zero — cheap for a reason.
Rating agencies gave ARB a zero score on safety and compliance; the SEC's stance and regulatory risks are all red flags; the L2 TVL inflow story can't stop token inflation emissions.
Transaction fees go to the sequencer and DAO treasury, holders only profit from price differences, with continuous annual unlock and sell pressure; the so-called value capture is still just an empty promise.
Safety red flags plus ongoing inflation, position capped at 30%. Hold at 0.185, reduce at break below 0.17. ARB isn't cheap, it's cheap to the point of being untrustworthy.