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$SOL "Every day people hype 'Solana is the Ethereum of the next cycle,' obsessively watching ETF fund inflows and getting excited. When BTC drops, SOL falls faster than anyone else—where is the dignity of the king of public chains?
Here's a secret from the dog trader: ETF fund inflows aren't here to boost your price; they're here to provide liquidity for selling. You think you're buying a decentralized future, but actually, you're buying chips that FTX creditors are eager to cash out. At the $120 level, bulls shout targets of 200, bears see 80. You're stuck in the middle, holding 10x leverage, listening to the 'SOL bulls' in the group chat, and then at 3 AM during the US market liquidity drought, you watch the candlestick get pierced like a needle, and your long position doesn't even leave a last word. You think you're believing in the public chain, but you're actually fueling the market makers' market-making machines."🔺 $AVAX
AVALANCHE HAS SURGED TO THE TOP IN TOKENIZED STOCKS
In the last 7 days, the Avalanche network attracted $131.2 million inflow into tokenized stocks — more than all other tracked networks combined
📈 By September 25, Avalanche had already received $252.1 million for the month, with $BNB taking second place at $122.2 million
🔥 The tokenized stocks market is growing rapidly, and Avalanche is capturing an increasing share of new capital #RWA What exactly is BTC waiting for tonight?
It might not be a new high, but whether the $85,000 level can hold again.
BTC is currently still fluctuating around $85,000. As of October 3rd, the high-low range is only about $400, whereas the previous trading day it once surged near $87,200. This change indicates that after the earlier rapid fluctuations, the price is entering a phase of re-selecting direction.
What are the bulls waiting for?
Waiting for $85,000 to become a stable support again, then to retest around $87,000. If volume expands simultaneously, market focus may shift back to breaking the previous high.
What are the bears waiting for?
Waiting for $85,000 to be lost again. If the price breaks below this level, the focus may shift from "whether it can challenge the previous high" to whether the lower support can hold.
The most critical thing now is not guessing the direction, but watching if volume keeps up when the price approaches key levels. A breakout with volume means market participation is heating up again; low-volume fluctuations mean bulls and bears are still waiting for clearer signals.
Tonight, $85,000 is the dividing line, $87,000 is the resistance.
The price is waiting to choose, and bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to move first.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $BZ “98 held, you call for 105; 105 breaks, you call for 90. Every day you’re killing it back and forth between 98 and 105 dollars, trading T like you’re possessed by Buffett. Wake up, you’re just a free market tester for OPEC+.
The current crude oil market fundamentals are a joke. The Middle East gunfire, US shale oil production, OPEC+ talk—any one of these can swing oil prices by 5%. The big players set an iron bottom at 98 dollars not because there’s support there, but because that’s the short sellers’ stop-loss line. If OPEC+ sneezes over the weekend, Monday’s open will gap up 5 dollars, and you won’t even get a chance to trigger your stop-loss at 98. You’re not trading; you’re just helping oil-producing countries cover their fiscal deficits.”Day 20, currently at 7800 oil. To summarize, the recent fluctuations have been quite large. Yesterday, the account's short position profit of 1000u turned into a loss of over 1000u at its worst, but fortunately, I firmly believed in my judgment and held on. The short position around 2730 has mostly been taken profit on. Continuing to proceed steadily, aiming for 10000u first! All position real trading records are fully open for reference, everyone is welcome to check!!$ETH standing above the UTC midnight opening price indicates that buyers currently have the upper hand today
OKX data shows that $ETH's UTC midnight opening price is approximately $2706.23, and at the time of writing, it is about $2750.86, currently about 1.65% higher. This suggests that after entering the new UTC trading day, buyers have temporarily pushed the price higher, but it does not prove that all regions and all holding periods are profitable. The Asian session opening reference is about $2682.98; different starting points will produce different gains, so "how much it rises today" must first specify which time boundary is used. Market discussions often mix 24-hour rolling gains, UTC calendar day, and local daily lines, resulting in contradictory conclusions. For $ETH trading judgments, a unified standard is more important than picking the most attractive number. If the price remains above 2706 and forms support during pullbacks, the intraday structure is maintained; if it falls below, today's initiative needs to be reassessed. The opening price is a cost reference, not a forecast endpoint.
Only after unifying the time standard can the strength of different days be compared, and selective interpretation of the market using the most favorable starting point for one's view can be avoided. Gains without a clear standard cannot be used for strategy review.LIQTober isn't just a liquidation story. It's a liquidity story.
Two things happened at once:
$BTC ETF flows snapped a nine-day, 148.7 million in net outflows on Oct 1. Fidelity's FBTC led the exit with $125.6 million out. BlackRock's IBIT ended its own nine-day run.
At the same time, market liquidity is thinning. BTC order book depth fell from $35.7 billion to $33.5 billion. Ethereum dropped from $13.9 billion to $13.6 billion. Solana slid from $4.28 billion to $3.35 billion. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
On the eve of the non-farm payroll night, the crypto circle is unusually quiet.
BTC seems nailed around 84200, occasionally probing above 85600, then pulling back. The 85000 mark has become a short-term ceiling, with several attempts suppressed by sell orders. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and off-exchange funds choose to wait and see; no one wants to be the first to move.
ETH is relatively resilient, currently priced at 2717, with a daily high of 2738. However, a large amount of break-even positions are stacked between 2750 and 2800 above, and without volume support, a breakout is just talk. Some traders hold short positions at 2671 with limited floating losses, betting on a non-farm surprise triggering a pullback.
Market expectations for tonight are like exam predictions: previous value was 162,000. If the data is stronger than expected, rate hike concerns will intensify, BTC may dip to 82000, ETH to 2600; if weaker, rate cut expectations will drive a rebound, but 85000 remains a strong resistance, and chasing highs carries significant risk.
$BTC $ETH $SOL ZEC short order at 1387: Bulls are celebrating, I'm waiting for the wind at the summit
Family of the planet, I'm shorting ZEC at 1387. This is not a call, it's my trading plan.
Bearish logic:
1. Overheated sentiment. Privacy narrative is maxed out, contract rates turned positive, bulls are crowded, chasing high prices flooding in—looks like distribution, not a start. When everyone is shouting 1500, that's often when liquidity is the richest.
2. Structural weakening. After a sharp rally, volume-price divergence, dense resistance zone at 1380-1420, false breakouts are prone to spikes and pullbacks. The temperament of a meme coin is that the stronger it rises, the harsher the pullback.
3. Suitable risk-reward ratio. Short at 1387, stop loss at 1445, targets at 1288/1188. Loss if wrong is 58, potential gain 100-200, R:R about 1.7-3.4. This calculation works out.
Strategy: light position, strict stop loss. If daily closes steadily above 1450, I admit I'm wrong and exit; otherwise, let profits run. I don't guess the top, I only play probabilities and odds.
Bulls see 1500? I'm watching liquidity harvesting. ZEC is highly volatile, sentiment comes fast and goes fast, those chasing highs will eventually become fuel.
Which side are you on: is 1387 the top or a continuation? Leave your target in the comments.
The above is only a personal trading plan record and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#ZEC再创新高，估值重估受关注
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 This non-farm payroll report is dovish but hasn't completely killed off rate hikes
September's nominal non-farm employment was significantly below expectations, with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth further limiting the space for continued rate hikes, so the data is overall dovish; July and August were also revised down by about 60,000 combined, requiring a downward adjustment to the previous assessment of strong employment.
But rate hikes haven't been completely killed off: energy prices remain high, and the risk of secondary inflation hasn't been eliminated. The probability of a rate hike in October has been pushed down to about 18%, while December remains around 62%, so the market still needs to wait for inflation data to provide answers.
In terms of pricing, the short term is indeed positive for risk assets, with rate hike concerns pushed to December; however, medium- and long-term risks remain, and gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar continue to trade with December rate hikes after a brief rise. For risk assets to be fully optimistic, energy prices need to continue falling, and CPI cooperation is also necessary. $BTC😻 Being able to borrow money is more useful than just adding another name, meow
For $AAVE, what I'm watching is whether borrowing demand can keep up after the collateral increases, meow. In the September update, the new market on Base now supports seven types of stock tokens as collateral, and the borrowed asset is USDC. Simply put, holders have the chance to get working capital without selling their assets. This adds a practical use beyond just moving stocks onto the chain. But with more collateral, valuation and liquidation need to be handled more precisely. I want to see loan growth controlled alongside bad debts and liquidity, not just a nice-looking deposit size, meow.
$PENDLE has extended its business to the yields of traditional assets, meow. The previously launched NGI+ market connected infrastructure fund strategies to yield trading. Some want to lock in yields early, others are willing to take on yield volatility, and the platform provides a place for both sides to trade. The direction has potential, but whether the product can take off depends on transaction volume and bid-ask spreads. Just listing a market doesn't mean enough people are trading, meow.
For $ZEC, I won't ignore price feedback just because of privacy demand, meow. At 23:10, it was around 1372, down about 11.5% over the past week, but up about 44% in the last month. The previous gains were significant, and the current divergence is real. Continuously explaining every drop with the long-term story can easily fix your judgment. I'll first see if it can stop its relative weakness before discussing further potential, watch more and act less, meow.🔥"$BTC holds its position at 85,000, $ETH waits to load at 2700, $SOL rushes the elevator at 119"
$BTC is pacing back and forth between 84,500 and 85,800, up over 1% in 24 hours. Like the most senior mid-level employee in a company: not grabbing the microphone, not handing in a resignation letter, 85,000 is both the workstation and the bottom line. Buyers have swiped their badges several times at the 85,000 door; the door hasn’t fully opened nor locked, the attitude is simply: I'm here, don’t push.
$ETH is slowly moving above 2700, up only 0.4%–0.9% in 24 hours. Like a colleague still in a meeting at 4 PM on Friday: documents are open, comments written, Glamsterdam, Layer2, and self-custody are all on the agenda, the foundation is solid, but short-term it’s like the elevator’s Wi-Fi—full bars but messages won’t send.
$SOL is between 118 and 119 USD, up 0.5%–1.5% in 24 hours. The gains aren’t big but it’s the most active, like rushing for the last elevator at the 119th floor: 120 is the target, 116 the fallback, pressing the floor buttons repeatedly. Young coins are flexible and quick to retract; you can watch but don’t stand too close. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 To be honest, sometimes this trading circle is really damn abstract
There are a bunch of signal teachers on the market, shouting every day "free sharing of trading ideas, I don't scalp traders, we all grow together"
Then they pull together groups of thousands or tens of thousands of people, making it look like a trading sanctuary
But if you really look at their trading skills, they're quite lacking
The ridiculous thing is, a bunch of newbies really buy into this
Teacher gets it right once: Damn, the teacher is awesome!
Teacher gets it wrong once: The market is too damn crazy
Gets it wrong several times in a row: The teacher is actually waiting for a big move
??
Bro, are you damn trading or playing religion?
I can understand it
Many people have lost money themselves and don't have a trading system, so when someone suddenly tells you every day where to go long, where to short, where to bottom fish, where to top out, it's easy to become dependent
Plus the community constantly praises, constantly worships, constantly reviews "the teacher caught it again," over time this creates an illusion
This guy really understands
In reality, it might just be someone with average trading skills, plus a group of fans who are really good at defending him
What's even funnier is that some people's loyalty to the teacher is even higher than to their own accounts
Losing money is fine, but you can't say the teacher is no good
Trading is inherently an extremely brutal thing
In the end, what really determines whether you survive is your own cognition, trading system, execution, and risk control
Not holding onto a teacher's leg every day asking:
Teacher, what’s the next step?
If you always need someone else to tell you what to do next, then are you really trading or just looking for an electronic daddy?Expected 90,000, previous 162,000)
Unemployment rate 4.2% (expected 4.1%)
✅Overall, a significant negative for the US dollar, positive for risk assets (BTC, ETH)
1. New job additions far below expectations, employment cooling significantly; unemployment rate rising, US labor market clearly weakening.
2. The market will further confirm: rate hike expectations continue to be postponed, US Treasury yields and the dollar will decline, which is strongly positive for the crypto space.
BTC & ETH market impact
1. Bitcoin BTC
Supported by ETF base holdings, the rebound foundation is solid, prioritizing upward potential.
2. Ethereum ETH
Although there was a slight ETF outflow before, under a strongly positive macro environment, it has greater elasticity, and the rebound is very likely to exceed BTC; previous outflow pressure will be overshadowed by macro positives.
Risks to watch
Need to pay attention to average hourly wage data; if wages are high, it will partially offset this positive; the currently released employment + unemployment data are genuinely positive.
#September non-farm payrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations are the focus $BTC $ETH $ZEC 刚刚翻到一个晒单，看完手心有点凉。 为什么有人能把整段下跌从头吃到尾？ XRP 10倍空，2.8253一路拿到1.4952，120万枚落袋约160万U。BTC 10倍空，119218附近进场，90359附近走人，125.5枚BTC，约372万U。SOL 10倍空，224.65压到117.95，1.5万枚，约158万U。三笔加总约690万U，折人民币接近半个小目标。最扎心的是ETH那笔10倍空只亏了7U，像随手试了下水温就撤了。 我盯着这几组数字看了很久，真正让我在意的不是他赚了多少，而是这些价位本身在说什么。 看多的人会说，这只是幸存者偏差，历史单子不能外推。没错。可衍生品结构里藏着的信号不太一样：BTC在十二万附近、SOL在两百多、XRP在2.8一线，都是情绪最热、杠杆最挤、多头最自信的位置。空头能在那种地方下重手并拿到深回撤，说明当时合约市场的拥挤度已经到了一个不舒服的阈值。价格不是被现货砸下来的，是被杠杆自己压垮的。 这对现在的节奏意味着什么。山寨的弹性依然大于BTC和ETH，但弹性是双向的。SOL和XRP这种高beta品种，涨的时候冲在最前，去杠杆的时候也最先被清算引擎盯上。E最近重新研究日产（Nissan Motor，NSANY），主要是因为一个很明显的反差： 日产的股价已经跌了很多年，但产品端正在发生变化。 尤其是新款 NX8，让我重新注意到这家公司。 NX8的产品力、价格和新能源配置，都说明日产已经开始认真应对中国新能源市场。 问题也随之出现： 如果产品正在变好，为什么股价依然这么弱？ 把日产的销量、利润、现金流和机构持仓拆开之后，我认为这家公司目前更接近一笔困境反转交易。 ⸻ 一、NX8很好，但一台车解决不了日产的问题 日产过去在中国最依赖的是轩逸、天籁、奇骏等传统燃油车型。 新能源时代到来之后，日产在中国市场的产品更新速度明显落后。 现在情况开始变化。 NX8、N7、N6等新能源车型陆续推出，日产开始重新进入中国新能源市场。 NX8尤其值得观察。 但问题在于，日产过去几年已经丢失了大量市场份额。 2026年8月，日产中国销量约 2.83万辆，同比下降51.9%。 所以现在不能简单理解为： NX8卖得不错 → 日产已经反转。 真正需要验证的是： 新能源产品能不能持续放量，并最终改善日产整体盈利能力。 这才是股价能不能发生变化的关键。 ⸻ 二、现在最重$LINK trending hits -6.1%: I'm bullish, watching 14.21
$LINK surged to CoinGecko trending, but dropped -6.1% in 24h, currently at 13.59 — trending is rising, price is falling, this contrast makes me directly bullish.
Trending reflects sentiment, K-line shows the truth. Daily RSI 62.9 is slightly strong, MA7 has been above MA30 for 11 days, MACD golden cross has been above zero line for 10 days. Up 22.36% in 30 days, today’s -6.1% drop fell into the upper half of Bollinger Bands (bandwidth 41.3%), this looks more like a shakeout than a breakdown.
Capital conditions are stable, funding rate 5.237e-05 neutral, OI down only -4.46% compared to record, long-short account ratio 1.9507, no panic or crowding on the drop.
Resistance above: 14.21
Support below: 12.58
The market is attacking but breadth is shrinking, only 28 of 67 coins are up (median -2.755%), a coin with both trending and bullish alignment backing falling -6.1% is a low entry point.
My plan is straightforward: open long at current price 13.59, cut loss if it breaks below 12.58, reduce position at 14.21 if it holds. Trending can be misleading, bullish alignment won’t.
Like and follow, I’ll alert you first when 14.21 is reached.
$LINK $BTCThe hardest part of long-termism is that it doesn't reward you early on, it only tests you $BTC $AI The logic of this stock is not about AI because what it does is utilize surplus for recombination. Right now, it's insufficient; it will only have value when AI becomes abundant in the future.$PONS is 4.37 times, almost at the bottom in DeFi. AAVE is ten times that, UNI more than nine times, and PUMP also surpasses it. But a low valuation does not mean the market is foolish; cheap usually corresponds to some risk that has yet to be disproven.
Revenue side shows improvement: $276,000 in 24 hours, an increase of 13.1%. The absolute value is not large, but the direction has turned positive. The problem lies on the issuance side: about one new coin appears every ten minutes on the domestic market, only two per hour on the foreign market, and yesterday the entire market added 7,338 new coins, which is just a fraction compared to the peak. With the supply of new assets shrinking, the foundation for fees and trading income is reduced. So the 4.37 times looks more like the market asking: how long can this revenue rebound last?
If the issuance side continues to cool, $276,000 might be the ceiling; if issuance heats up again, the current multiple will seem ridiculous. The game now is not about the discount but the turning point. The revenue rebound is just a signal flare; issuance data is the decisive factor. PONS has only shown half the cards; the other half will determine whether it is gold or a pit. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Morning assessment unchanged: $BTC and $ETH remain within a bullish framework. Although short-term fluctuations occur within a range, the main trend is upward. This recent rally resembles a recovery following a warming of macro expectations rather than a unilateral start; U.S. Treasury yields and tonight's non-farm payrolls remain overhead pressures, so key resistance levels have yet to be broken. On the funding side, ETF support for BTC is clearly stronger than for ETH, with continued strength differentiation. The current back-and-forth essentially reflects the offset between interest rate suppression and liquidity benefits. If tonight's non-farm payrolls fall below expectations, risk assets may be boosted, and BTC and ETH could follow suit with upward momentum; if they significantly exceed expectations, short-term pressure may arise. Technically, BTC has stabilized above 85,000, while ETH has repeatedly failed to surpass 2,750. Whether a volume breakout occurs after data release will determine the next directional move. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 "Funds Changing Seats: BTC Still Has Buyers, ETH Steps Off First"
BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $3.08 billion, but the inflow slope has clearly flattened: nearly $1 billion on September 21, down to only $66.19 million on September 29. ETH is more subtle, with $851 million absorbed over 7 consecutive days, then turning to a net outflow of $2.81 million on September 29.
This is not necessarily a trend reversal, but more like a short-term divergence. Institutions are still willing to allocate BTC at low levels, while the impulse to chase highs is cooling; ETH redemptions are not large, but the direction has changed. Adding to this, 49,000 BTC leveraged positions have actively withdrawn, and CME open interest dropped 14.78% in a single day, indicating funds are contracting toward assets with higher certainty.
The next key point is the nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 PM tomorrow. ADP employment at 90,000 exceeded expectations; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations may reheat, making BTC rebounds more difficult; if nonfarm is weak, the probability of holding steady in October increases.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, so macro pressure persists. Before nonfarm, no rushing or guessing direction—wait for confirmation.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC 80000 bears are about to be released from losses
The news has been fully digested, bullish momentum is exhausted, BTC is about to test 80500
After the market surged to a high of 87374.3, it faced pressure and fell back. The positive news has been fully priced in by the market, and the bullish attack force continues to weaken.
📊 Market analysis:
1. On the daily chart, a high-level pullback structure has formed. The price has been continuously retreating from the high of 87374, currently at 84019. The short-term EMA5 moving average is turning downward, creating resistance. The price has fallen below the 5-day moving average, and the bullish trend is starting to weaken. EMA20 support is at 82575; if this is broken, the target will further look toward 80500.
2. Indicator signals: The daily KDJ shows a high-level death cross diverging downward, RSI is gradually falling from a high level, bullish enthusiasm is waning, and short-term correction space is opening.
3. Volume structure: Volume increased during the surge phase, but subsequent rebound volume continues to shrink, a typical volume-price divergence after positive news has been realized. All positive news has been digested, lacking new incremental funds to push the price to new highs.
Core judgment: The positive narrative of this round of the rally has been fully digested, and high-level selling pressure continues to release. The short-term rebound is a weak recovery during the downtrend, with heavy resistance near 85500 above. If the 82500 support line is broken, the market will further decline to test 80500.
Trading strategy: Do not chase longs at high levels; consider short positions when the rebound faces pressure; holders of long positions must set stop losses to guard against deep correction risks. 溜达鹅昨晚盯了非农数据，结果有点意外。 美国9月新增非农就业只有2.9万人。预期是9万人，前值16.2万还被下修到13.3万。两个月净下修6万人。失业率4.2%，比预期的4.1%还高。平均时薪同比3.0%，也低于预期的3.2%。 一句话：就业市场突然降温了。 数据出来后，市场第一反应是利好。10年期美债收益率下行近10个基点到5.15%。交易员开始削减美联储10月加息押注。美股期指拉升。黄金白银拉升。 BTC也冲了。最高摸到$87,237，离1月1日开盘价$87,575只差$338。 然后呢？然后被砸回来了。 现在BTC $84,109，24小时跌0.8%。从$87,237到$83,883，几个小时跌了$3,354。成交$9.42亿，放量下跌。 为什么利好不涨？这就是交易心理学里的"买预期卖事实"。 非农数据公布前，市场已经在定价"就业会降温"了。BTC从$83,000涨到$86,000，连续两天冲$87,000。花旗上调目标价到$113,000，Uptober的讨论满天飞。所有人都在等非农数据确认"美联储不用加息了"。 数据确实确认了——2.9万，远低于预期。但问题是：所有人都已经提The biggest concern for $SAND is not the price fluctuations, but that after the price moves a certain distance, participation does not keep up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.10 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends being relatively strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires confirmation from the next candlestick.
The current price is 0.0616, about 28.26% away from the 1-hour support at 0.04419, and about 19.32% away from resistance at 0.0735. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.0735 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 0.04419, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.04171. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.0735 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 0.0735 and 0.04419 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
Is this volume contraction movement a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; CPI is the main course
Tonight at 20:30, the nonfarm payrolls will be released, and market sentiment is tense again. BTC stands above 86,000, ETH hovers around 2,724, and many are waiting for the data to provide direction.
But to be honest, the Fed no longer places as much weight on nonfarm payrolls as before. The real highlight is CPI, followed by PCE, with nonfarm payrolls at best third in importance. No matter how strong the employment data is, as long as inflation is under control, the case for rate cuts holds.
Last month, nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000, and the market only symbolically dipped before continuing to rise. The logic is simple: employment is not the main issue right now; inflation is. Once PCE came in below expectations, the market immediately rallied—that’s the data that can truly influence the Fed’s decisions.
So tonight’s nonfarm payrolls, whether they beat or miss expectations, shouldn’t be overreacted to. If it beats, the dip is a golden opportunity; if it misses, don’t chase the rally. The real direction will be set by next month’s CPI.
BTC has room around 86,000, so don’t let one nonfarm report shake your judgment. ETH is fluctuating around 2,724; I still hold my short at 2,671 but don’t expect the nonfarm to cause a big drop—waiting for CPI.
On the US stock side, long positions in Tesla and GOOGL are also being held; fundamentals are solid, and macro disturbances are short-term.
In short: nonfarm payrolls are the appetizer—don’t get full on the appetizer and lose your appetite when the main course arrives.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC daily outlook: That over-aggressive shorting at the former range high without follow-through built a lot of leverage. Bulls never really participated before - now they are, and they’re pushing with intent out of the mini range We reacted at Monday High + 50% wick fill, but not enough. Price is now likely going for the full wick. -> while i am doing this update we see longs aping in, being currently absorbed after raiding yesterdays high What I want for another short: > longs attack the wic$BTC is setting up final pump before the big wave down...
$87K broken, ~12 days of accumulation, final sweep loading at $88K-$90K
No BOTTOM until liquidity below gets swept, no sweep = no real pump...
Here's the roadmap I'm seeing right now:
-> Pump to $88K-$90K
-> Pullback below $87K
-> Distribution kicks in + dump to $75K
-> FVG fill + $61K sweep
-> The big wave up begins, target $100K $ETH has been chopping around vs $BTC for the past few weeks.
No real action here besides some intra day volatility here and there.
But the trend has been up since June. As long as BTC remains its bullish market structure, I do believe ETH will at least keep up if not outperform. Just like it has been doing.
If the market were to go risk off for whatever reason, the Daily 200MA/EMA would be a good level to watch on the ETH/BTC pair.$BTC 📈 That is exactly what we just talked about... 👀 "Otherwise failed breakout from value can trap traders and set up a move back toward dPOC and opposite side of the daily range." We saw two attempts to break above session value, both with intent: new longs were opening into the move. Both attempts failed, leaving those buyers trapped near the highs. That failure confirmed an entry targeting dPOC, with dVAL as a potential next target, as explained in the previous post. I'm in a fully securWeak employment was already priced in early, and the risk is hidden in the positions
Nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, yet BTC did not immediately take off. It's not that the positive news failed, but more likely that "weak employment equals reduced tightening pressure" has already been priced in by the market.
What should be watched now are the positions: the perpetual annualized funding rate has risen to about 10%, and open interest contracts have returned to about 653,000 BTC. Weak data gives bulls a reason, but crowded leverage compresses the margin for error.
If the price continues to hold above 86,000 and slowly digests the high funding rate, the trend remains strong; if the funding rate does not drop and the price first falls back to the post-data release consolidation zone, a normal pullback could also turn into a deleveraging by the bulls. $BTC#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT
Senate 56 pages, House 114 pages, the two crypto tax bills now need to be merged into one.
▪️ House version H.R.10357 was released on 9/16, 114 pages, has passed the fundraising committee
▪️ Senate version is this ADAPT, introduced on 9/30, 56 pages, just started
▪️ Both have the same effective date, applicable after December 31, 2026
The disagreement is not about whether crypto should have tax laws, but about which of the two texts, differing in scale by a factor of two, will prevail in the end.
The heaviest issues are not the two tax exemptions, but the thresholds hidden in the definitions. The bill draws a line for "broadly traded digital assets": market cap of $500 million, plus liquidity standards. Those above the line are handled under securities rules, those below are treated differently. Receipt tokens and bridged assets each fall under their own definitions.
Outside the thresholds, there are two small points: network fees under $10 per transaction do not recognize gains or losses, but traders, market makers, and high-frequency users are excluded.
In the same text, there is another matter: the House version removed deferred taxation for miners and stakers. Rewards are counted as income in the year received, regardless of whether you have sold them.
On the day the two texts merge, which version's tone do you think will prevail?"Nonfarm Night: Don't Bet on Direction, Wait for Three Things"
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls consensus is an increase of 80,000–90,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Don't just focus on the number of jobs added; focus on three things: job numbers, unemployment rate, and hourly wages.
Scenario 1: Over 100,000 new jobs, unemployment rate does not rise, and wages are strong. Rate hike pricing reverses, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthen, while gold and long-duration assets come under pressure.
Scenario 2: 80,000–100,000 new jobs, "cooling but not crashing." The Fed continues to watch the data, likely holding steady in October; the real turning point depends on subsequent core CPI.
Scenario 3: Below 50,000 new jobs, unemployment rate breaks 4.3%. The rate hike narrative breaks down, and gold and crypto risk appetite see a decent recovery.
In the medium term, don't get led by a single nonfarm report. It's not about "hiking immediately" or "easing immediately," but "enduring high rates for a long time plus data verification." Don't pre-judge on nonfarm night; wait for the three validations; keep some position flexibility, and don't mistake short-term pulses for trend reversals.
In short: Nonfarm sets volatility, not direction; CPI sets the script.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 SanDisk jumped 60 points last night. Is it really its own negative news?
Last night's review:
① Before the non-farm payrolls, bullish at 1760, take profit at 1785, it reached that before the market opened
② When the US stock market opened, the storage sector collectively plunged, SanDisk hit a low of 1715
③ The reason was clarified: Toshiba wants to increase its mechanical hard drive market share from 10% to 30%, targeting Seagate and Western Digital. SanDisk deals with flash memory, so this impact is not much related to it; it was dragged down by sector sentiment
④ After the panic, bought near 1720, then recovered back to 1760
My view:
· The big trend is upward, I have always been mainly bullish on SanDisk
· The short-term dividing line is 1700. If it breaks below 1700 and continues down, consider stop loss in the short term, don't hold on stubbornly#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $SNDK Ethereum is pushing deeper into the intersection of blockchain, artificial intelligence and privacy. The Ethereum Foundation and Open Anonymity Project have launched zkAPI, a system designed to allow users to pay for AI models and other metered APIs without revealing their identities to the service provider. � The Block The system is already live on Ethereum mainnet. Its core technology is zero-knowledge proofs. Users deposit ETH or USDC into an Ethereum vault. Their balance is represented throuNfp trade
Took a entry before sweep as liquidity was piled up between 87.3-87.5
Cvd spot was already showing divergence vs oi going up
Data came in bad which was a little confusing but confluence
Moved sl back to the nfp highs as soon as price broke below vah
#bitcoin
Don't short here imo
Next week will get opportunity... Price is likely to go back to the highs$ZEC I'm bearish for October.
Last night crypto rallied along with the non-farm payrolls, and ZEC was pulled up a bit as well. But it didn't show an independent trend like BTC, it pulled back after the spike, dropping as low as 1305 again.
My plan:
· Short on rallies around 1390–1400
· On the downside, watch 1193 first; if it breaks effectively, look lower
· This coin moves slowly, not a matter of a day or two, better to hold longer and don't expect same-day results
The only risk to watch: if BTC and ETH launch another big rally, ZEC will be dragged up too, so don't rush to add shorts then.
Levels are as of the live broadcast on 10/2, follow the daily live streams for real-time updates. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $ZEC Is this really the top for ETH this time? Or is it just a pullback to build momentum for a push to 3000?🤔
ETH short position: topped at 2725, 50x leverage, floating profit over 35%. Clear resistance at 2750, low probability of breaking 2800 in the short term, expect a pullback first. However, support at 2700 is strong, ready to take profit and exit anytime.
SOL short position: also opened a SOL short simultaneously, 20x leverage, nearly 7% profit. When BTC pulls back, altcoins follow, the logic is sound.
LINK long position: 3x low leverage long, isolated margin, relatively resistant to drops, currently holding 6% profit, holding steady.
My view: this looks more like a consolidation within an uptrend. Clearing out weak hands to gather strength for a push to 3000. My short positions are only short-term; if the support below holds, I will close shorts and switch to longs anytime.
$ETH $SOL #BTC, ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital heat. #September non-farm payrolls announced tonight, interest rate hike expectations are the focusBTC is NOT Crashing - It's a Healthy Correction 📊
Truth:
$87,238 -> $84,115 = -3.5% only
Why it's normal:
- RSI 69 -> 59 (overbought cleared)
- Price sitting on MA20 $84,227 support
- Volume normal, no panic selling
Real crash = -10%+ with high volume
This is just profit booking before NFP data
Don't panic, DCA on support $83,918
#USNFPDataCools #BTC #Truth$BTC
Same playbook...
Leave the highs unswept, building liquidity above the highs and making most participants feel safe in shorts before pushing through.
Another sweep of the lows could come, which would likely lead to a deviation below the range lows while those short continue targeting lower prices.
Higher prices are coming sooner rather than later.Decision time for BTC.
We’ve flipped the 85K barrier. Now it’s vital that $BTC holds above it if we want to see a push into 89-90K+.
One thing I can assure you... if we lose the 84.6–85.2K region, a sweep into 80–82K would not surprise me at all.$BTC Closed all the longs from 83K; here at 86.9K. For those who didn't enter any shorts last time at 87.1K & 86K (from which we took profits at 82.6K), you can now enter new shorts at the green trendline touch or at my R3 level at 87.9K. I also took a partial entry, as R3 has not yet fully hit. Will see how things unfold once R3 is met or not. Keep it low leverage as we're targeting 79K next. Earlier, we booked partial TPs at 83,111 S/R & 82.6K P-Level because we expected a range to be formed.A major regulatory development is emerging in the United States as the Securities and Exchange Commission proposes a framework that could allow certain investment advisers and funds to self-custody crypto assets. The proposal would also allow some firms to use state trust companies as custodians, creating additional pathways for regulated investment businesses to hold digital assets. � The Block The importance of this development goes beyond custody itself. For traditional financial institutions2000U challenge to 10,000U Record📝third time
Currently the account has 3483U
240U came from other accounts as fee rebates
After posting this, I plan to withdraw 1483U and keep 2000U in the account
Recalling recent operations, trading is really mentally taxing and exhausting
Generally, I don't recommend this to most people.
The first half of September went pretty well, but in the second half I held a few positions and suffered serious profit drawdowns, so I kept trying to recover. On the last day of September, I lost another 600U. At that time, I thought I would make over 1000U in September and withdraw, but I kept grinding and lost more. Recently, I've been shorting $BTC $ETH $ZEC — these three. Today during the day, the market kept rebounding and the account drawdown went back to 2000U. Then the nonfarm payroll data came out in the evening, which was bearish, but the market kept rising and the account kept dropping. Fortunately, after the data release, the market gradually fell and I took profit on all three positions just now. I've started a cooldown period for contracts and will rest for a day! Finally, I wish everyone winning trades in contracts Huge $BTC move. $BTC pumped from $83,100 to $87,200 today liquidating $460M in less than 24 hours! But here's the important part: In my last update, I said reclaiming $85,800 would favour another $87,000 attempt. Bitcoin reclaimed it and pushed almost perfectly to $87,200, so that recovery target has now played out. Bitcoin now has roughly $5.7B liquidity below at $80,000 - $85,000 and $1.2B above between $87,000 - $89,000. This means there is now over 4x more HTF liquidity below price, so a deeLook at these two orders: SAND and TRUTH, both are short positions with full 10x leverage. The SAND position is the most fatal, opened at an average price of 0.0549, now the mark price is 0.06009. It doesn't seem to have risen much, but with 10x leverage, the return rate directly hits -93.55%, and the 1600U margin is almost wiped out. This is the terror of full margin mode, a single fluctuation not only eats up profits but also devours the principal. Many people think 10x is not high, but reckleFunding rate soared to 10%, longs are rushing ahead
BTC surged from $83,500 to $86,500 in two days, with the contract funding rate jumping from about 3% to 10%, and open interest rising from 626,000 contracts back to 653,000 contracts, an increase of about 27,000 contracts. Price and open interest rising together indicates that new positions are indeed being taken.
But there's a detail: open interest just rebounded from a 12-month low, and 653,000 contracts are still some way off the previous normal level of 750,000 contracts. The 10% funding rate looks more like a group of longs willing to pay a high price to chase the rally; sentiment is hot but it’s not yet a full-blown leverage meltdown.
The spot side is actually more worth watching: in September, spot BTC ETF net inflows were about $2.65 billion, and on the first day of October another $103 million came in; real money hasn’t left.
So the core contradiction is clear: spot is supporting the bottom, contracts are rushing ahead. If the funding rate stays high and open interest keeps surging but spot can’t keep up, when longs get crowded, the pullback will be fierce. $BTC$xALAB $ASTER Damn it! ASTER's move this time gave me goosebumps, with the big players aggressively dumping money above 0.71, clearly manipulating the market to shake out weak hands. The candlestick volume doesn't match, upper shadows keep appearing one after another, retail investors chasing highs are just handing profits to the whales. 🔥
Personally, I placed a short near 0.7116, with a stop loss at 0.728; if it breaks, I accept it, if not, I'll ride this pullback. Below, first watch 0.68, then deeper is the dense chip area around 0.66.
Don't blindly rush to go long here; the risk-reward ratio at this position isn't worth it. If you want to follow, check the token market card below for order book details, control your position size, and always use stop loss. Do you dare to follow this trade?
👇👇👇$BRETT Damn it! BRETT's shakeout this round gave me scalp tingles. At the 0.0057 level, the big players are aggressively dumping money, the candlesticks look like a waterfall, clearly trying to shake retail investors off. 😂
Looking at the chart, there's a weak support at 0.0053 below, but volume hasn't shrunk, the main force is still unloading. Don't fomo bottom buy, the no-loss strategy here is: short near 0.0057 on the rebound, stop loss at 0.0061, take profit around 0.0048. 🐶
If you want to follow, don't rush, wait for confirmation signals before acting. What do you guys think?
👇👇👇$BTC Here's what's going on: We front ran the EQH's at 87.3k and then saw 9 bearish candles in a row on 30M. This shows that the MM's took the wheel and front ran the highs so they could take out the late longers who were chasing this pump earlier. Now, the reason why this move down is a shakeout is simply because there was no bullish action throughout the drop. Just a straight 3% drop without giving bulls any chance to take control. Obviously, this means the liquidity/imbalance hasn't piled to