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Last week I shorted $ZEC and lost a month's salary; this month went long and lost another month. Rises when I short, falls when I long. Why is it always against me? I really can't take it anymore, ZEC you jerk! Yesterday a bro messaged me saying he lost 3 months salary on ZEC and asked if he can still hold. I didn't dare say "it will bounce back." Because 3 months ago, I was the one staring at K-line late at night, sweaty palms, stubbornly holding. Now ZEC dropped from 1698 to 1333, 21% pullback表面都在等降息，底下却在悄悄撤钱。 非农这么弱，为什么BTC还是抬不起头？ 我盯着这组数据看了很久。美国9月非农只增了2.9万，失业率升到4.2%，按过去的剧本，这该是风险资产狂欢的夜晚。但盘面给出的反馈很冷淡，甚至有点防备。市场确实上调了10月降息押注，可价格没有跟，这种背离比数据本身更值得琢磨。 我的感受是，好消息被提前花掉了。降息预期升温的同时，BTC上方一直有沉甸甸的卖压，每次反弹都像在测试谁更急着离场。ETH和SOL的节奏也差不多，不是不能涨，而是涨上去没人接。这种结构里，追高的容错率很低，等回踩确认反而更从容。 真正让我警觉的是另一个信号。BTC和ETH现货ETF同步净流出，这不是板块内部的小打小闹，而是边际买盘在退潮。当最稳定的增量资金开始观望，山寨的弹性就会被压缩，风险偏好会从进攻转向防守。大家可能忽略了，ETF流出往往不是一天的情绪，而是连续几天的态度。 偏多的路径也存在。如果降息真的落地，实际利率下行对加密是中期利好，只是这个利好需要时间传导，不是一根阳线就能兑现。风险在于，市场已经把降息当成既定事实，一旦后续就业或通胀数据反弹，预期回摆会让高杠杆仓位很难受。 所以Sharing my thought process, not a trade report. BTC is currently at 84758.1, I took a light long position near 84100, stop loss at 83900, target 84800, currently floating in profit. Recovering from a 200,000 U loss, my current principle is: open each trade with 5000 U, only enter if the risk-reward ratio is at least 2:1, never hold losing positions without stop loss. Resistance at 85000, support at 84000, this range is oscillating, so I trade the range and follow the trend after a breakout. Trading is not about who makes more, but who lasts longer. $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Weekly long read: This week I read an article about AI, mainly discussing "Is there really a bubble in AI?" When AI investment truly becomes excessive, who will ultimately bear the debt? According to estimates, from 2025 to 2032, the cumulative investment in AI data centers, chips, power, and network infrastructure in the US could reach an astonishing $10.3 trillion, averaging 3.63% of the US GDP annually. By relative economic scale, this even surpasses the historical waves of railroad, highway, electrification, and communication infrastructure construction in the US. So, can AI make enough money? If not, who will bear the money already spent? When investment relies on cash flow, when the bubble bursts, the shareholders are the first to suffer. But as more investments start to rely on debt, SPVs, private credit, and asset securitization, things change. Because when the next AI market truly reaches a turning point, what we may need to watch is not just the Nasdaq. But— whether cracks appear first in the credit market. If so, that crack might be the real signal that this round of AI super capital expenditure cycle is entering its second half. Although such risks have not yet appeared, they are becoming increasingly difficult to see. BTC is grinding sideways, and funds are not buying it BTC is still grinding today, stuck around 84500, down 0.3% in 24 hours, basically unchanged. There was a small episode a couple of days ago: US PCE inflation data came out lower than expected, BTC briefly surged to 85500, but failed to hold and was pushed back. The reason is simple—although inflation dropped, US Treasury yields did not fall accordingly, so funds are not convinced. This is a typical "good news causes a spike, then it gets sold off" scenario. In the short term, selling pressure at 85500 above remains obvious, and volume hasn't picked up. Don't rush to chase longs at this level, nor blindly short; wait for a clear direction. The market is waiting for a real catalyst, and before that, it will most likely continue to range back and forth in this zone. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ETH was being called long above $2,750, with some setups using only around a 30-point stop-loss. But the market had other plans. 😭 Those long positions got hit hard, and reports put the losses among bulls at around $300M. $BTC was even more brutal for anyone chasing longs above $86K. Bitcoin suddenly dropped several thousand dollars, wiping out leveraged positions along the way. My $ETH long from $2,679 has already been closed. The $ZEC long from $1,319 is still sitting at a floating loss. So $PONS I had just finished complaining to a friend about this week's market, but now I have to take back my words, a bit awkward. Luckily, I didn't mess with the short positions and just waited for it to give the answer itself. In the early hours yesterday, PONS faced obvious resistance above; every attempt to surge fell just short, and volume didn't keep up. I saw persistent pressure at the high levels, signaling that the rebound was just an opportunity to short, so I opened a short position. From 0.5583 all the way down to 0.4199, the short position gained +496.14%. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying. I first closed 80% of the position, keeping the remaining 20% at cost price as protection, letting the profit run if it continues to drop, and hoping the rebound doesn't give back the gains. Don't lose patience in the choppy market and then try to regain dignity in a trending move. Panic comes from lack of planning; losses come from overthinking. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round and watch for new structures. $DOGE $ADA Big Brother Maji accumulating again. $BTC $ETH After today's ops, position rebuilt to $145M, and still all longs. Don't just watch his small coins for fun; what really matters is his position structure. BTC 290 coins, ∼$24.52M; ETH 37.1k coins, ∼$99.43M; HYPE 177k coins, ∼$15.54M; PUMP ∼1.025B coins, ∼$5.65M. Four longs add up to $145M, currently unrealized loss ∼$1.027M, margin usage already 83.76%. What's more interesting is he didn't just blindly add all day today. From midnight to afternoon,最近链上数据显示，$SHIB 持有地址数量持续攀升，已突破169万，过去两周新增近6000个钱包，正快速逼近170万大关。 即便大盘整体偏弱，新持有者仍在不断涌入。 👉🏻短期影响 一般持有人数量快速增加，通常意味着更多散户进场，短期交易活跃度会抬高。 新钱包一多，买卖单量会跟着上来，价格容易出现脉冲式波动。 结合近期燃烧率偶尔飙升的情况，短期内SHIB相对更容易走出一波情绪驱动的反弹。 但要注意，很多新地址可能是小额试探，真正大资金未必同步跟进，所以涨得快也可能回调得也快。 👉🏻长期影响 从更长时间看，持有人基数稳步扩大，说明社区黏性还在。 长期持有者占比一直不低，很多人已经拿了一年以上。这对生态发展是好事，尤其是Shibarium二层网络交易量不断积累，持有人越多，后续销毁、应用落地的基础就越扎实。 不过供应高度集中的问题依然存在，头部地址控制着大部分筹码，长期走势最终还是要看大户动向和整体市场风险偏好，单靠持有人数量撑不起持续牛市。 👉🏻综合判断 整体是偏利多，但属于温和的利多。 持有人激增是正面信号，证明项目热度没有完全消退，需求端还在缓慢恢复。它不是那种“马上翻倍”The latest nonfarm payrolls came in well below market expectations, once again cooling expectations for an October Fed rate hike. But don’t confuse good macro news with an automatic crypto pump. $BTC is still facing strong selling pressure overhead. I wouldn’t rush into a falling market just because the data looks bullish. For me, the better approach is to wait for a pullback and look for a cleaner long setup. The market doesn’t owe anyone a rally just because the news is positive. $ETH is showi$SAND keep shorting! Up 20% in past dozen hours, but looking at real moves of smart money in backend, they are operating completely opposite. At midnight, 543 bulls vs 232 bears. Now price up, bulls not only didn't follow, but quietly withdrew 19 positions, while bears on other side suddenly added 100, total position soaring directly to 6.68M U, completely surpassing bulls. Price rising, but main force crazily opening shorts. What does it mean? In main force's eyes, this rally is not opportunityAfternoon market update: $BTC is hovering around 84,600, while $ETH has stalled near 2,678. The 15-minute chart looks drained, with thin buy and sell liquidity keeping price action sluggish. BTC saw capital inflows a few days ago, but that momentum is now fading. ETH looks even weaker—price is rising without a clear volume expansion, like a car coasting without fuel. Without fresh capital, liquidity may eventually be found lower.$APR is weak, currently priced at 0.1373, pressing below the descending trendline, while the real pressure window has yet to open. The 24-hour volatility is 9.5%, with a final increase of only 0.44%, sweeping both up and down but the price remains unchanged. There were 16 long liquidations and 7 short liquidations, amounts so small they can be ignored; all liquidated positions were small, with no large funds entering. The fee rate has been 0.0050% for three consecutive periods, just background noise, and no one on the contract side has priced the cliff unlock on October 23 yet. Before entering the last 7 days, the price oscillated between 0.1302 and 0.1426, with the highs continuing to move lower. In the 7 days before the unlock, similar events on average underperform the market by about 6%, with roughly three-quarters being negative; that week focuses on $APR's relative strength or weakness against the market. After the unlock day, there is no stable direction, and pressure remains until that day. Conditions for a bullish reversal: within the last 7 days, the daily close must stand above 0.1426 and outperform the market, indicating supply pressure has been preemptively absorbed; breaking below 0.1302 confirms weakness early.$PUM$PUMP and all launchpads like PONS, as well as Mo Yin Coin compared to the September peak, are all plummeting. The vast majority that were launched have no trading activity. The coin prices are likely to go down,Brothers, $ZEC has now fallen below 1300, with negative news one after another, and the downtrend is basically formed! Look at the latest news: Grayscale Zcash spot ETF ZCSH had a net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week, with assets dropping from a peak of 979 million to about 751 million, and cumulative net inflows shrinking directly from 268 million to 212 million. Institutions are running, while retail investors are still buying the dip. Even worse is the rumor about North Korean hackers. Bitget exchange was hacked for $387 million, and on-chain investigator ZachXBT found 2746 ZEC (about $3.9 million) transferred from the hacker's address into Zcash's anonymity pool. Once this news broke, the compliance risk of privacy coins was brought to the forefront again, causing institutional investors to start hesitating. Market data also fully supports the decline. ZEC has dropped 21% from the high of $1698 at the end of September, currently around 1333, down 7.29% intraday. The long-short ratio is 93% long to 7% short, retail investors are crazily chasing longs, if the whales don’t dump, who else will? Funding rates are all below zero, shorts are paying to hold positions, the short side is too crowded. Technically, ZEC's MACD has formed a death cross at a high level, RSI has fallen back from the overbought zone, and the 4-hour price has broken below the acceleration channel. The key support is at $1233; if the daily close breaks below this level, the next step is $1155 or even lower. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $ZEC gave me a painful lesson—had chances to exit around 1450–1470 but stubbornly held the 1350 SL. The real loss was ignoring my own rules. $BTC around 84.5K still looks more like consolidation while key support holds. $ETH remains range-bound around 2600–2800 and feels easier to manage. My plan: follow BTC’s direction, wait for ETH rebounds, and respect stops on high-volatility coins like ZEC. #BTC #ETH #ZECGoesInstitutional #NvidiaRecordHigh #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Why did the nonfarm payroll surprise become an excuse for a market sell-off? Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% and wage growth slowing down. Normally, this should cool down rate hike expectations and be positive for risk assets. However, the market played out a scenario of "good news is bad news," with long positions getting wiped out instead. The reasons mainly involve three layers of logic. The first is "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Before the data release, the market had already priced in weak nonfarm payrolls and a pause in rate hikes in October, pushing BTC from 84,000 to 87,000, thus overextending the positive expectations. The second layer is liquidity siphoning. Although the data was weak, U.S. Treasury yields remained high, leading funds to prefer returning to the dollar or the Treasury market for safety rather than flowing into the high-risk crypto market. The third layer is the shift in the macro narrative. The market focus has moved from simply "whether to hike rates" to deeper concerns about an economic recession. The collapse in employment data is no longer a stimulus for rate cuts but rather a confirmation of a hard economic landing, which has increased risk aversion and triggered this unusual downturn. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 This article is written for my personal reference. If brothers who can understand what I'm saying see this, please leave me a message. I will definitely add you as a friend and discuss with you. Self-reflection section. A senior once said: To trade, you must be absolute, meaning every trade can be 100% replicated in its trading path. Relying on a sudden sixth sense or some specific luck is hard to succeed. My self-reflection mainly concerns the mainstream altcoin WLD, which had the biggest gains during the recent volatile market these days, and the very popular coin ARB around September 18. First, the issue with WLD: I entered around 0.49, completely following my trading framework. After entry, it quickly rose to 0.57 but was resisted, then retraced all the way back near my cost price at about 0.48, but did not break the structural level near 0.46. The structure remains intact, meaning all the scenarios at my initial entry are still solid. There are three issues worth me modifying: First: When the structure is still intact, I should not rashly do arbitrage, and I should have fully loaded my position around 0.49. Second: I should not have exited early with zero position during the second real rally after a fake drop of 17% on the rebound, missing the subsequent 15% gain. Third: After the first 17% rebound, why did I predict a fake drop here? This is very important because this way I could have captured a 25% profit by re-entering at 0.49 after the fake drop. Red box 1 is the first entry; 1 is the first rally; the white circle is the fake drop; 2 is the second entry. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜ZEC】 Monitored address 0x68af opened a long position: ▪ Execution price: 1,292.4 USD ▪ Transaction amount this time: 646,199.44 USD ▪ Leverage: 6xThe sky is falling, I never dreamed I would have such a large unrealized loss on $SOL Recently, SOL's trend seems clearly stronger than $BTC and $ETH I don't know why, and I don't dare to ask I only know that I have added short positions on BTC and ETH again Currently, the average holding price for BTC is 81500 ETH has also been raised to around 2600 If it continues to rise and breaks new highs I plan to add a layer of position for every 1000 USD increase in BTC For ETH, after breaking 2800 USD, add a layer every 100 USD It's not that I don't believe this is a bull market now But I think a big correction that is owed will definitely come The unrealized loss is only temporary As long as I keep raising the opening price I will definitely be able to profit when the real correction comes #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 The leader has something to say Non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations across the board, with only an increase of 29,000 in September, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and wage growth of 3.0%. Logically, the pressure to raise interest rates should be reduced, and US Treasury yields should fall. However, they only dipped briefly before rising back by the close in New York. The 10-year yield returned to 5.28%, and the 30-year to 5.63%. This indicates that the pressure on long-term rates is not closely related to rate hikes. Energy prices, inflation, fiscal deficits, and bond supply are the main factors. Trump also promised to give every adult $5,000 if he wins the midterm elections. If fulfilled, fiscal expansion will continue, deficits will widen, #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 US Treasury supply pressure will increase, making it harder for long-term yields to come down. This continuously suppresses risk assets. With a 5.6% risk-free rate pressing down, Bitcoin is unlikely to experience an independent surge in the short term. ETF funds have also been flowing out these past two days, with profit-taking at the year's highs. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Yesterday, I took a long position on Bitcoin at 86,000 and opened a short at 86,500. The logic is that the positive factors have been realized, there is dense resistance above, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87,500, target between 84,500 and 85,000. Time to reduce positions, leaving the rest to break even. Control your position size well, avoid heavy positions. Before the direction is clear, keep stop losses on shorts and don't hold through losses. The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on trades. Good luck.Order Sentiment Guide $SAND had a short squeeze rally yesterday, pulling up for most of the day. After maxing out the funding fee, it switched to once every 4 hours. It has dropped a bit now but is still relatively high. Will keep observing and enter again if there's an opportunity. The order strategy is to enter only when there's a suitable opportunity, no FOMO, no chasing highs or panic selling. $CAP is a fun altcoin to pump, but unfortunately, it's also affected by the overall market and can't rally anymore. Forced a pump yesterday, almost got hit hard for not escaping in time, but if it rallies again, will continue to short. Lastly, still want to talk about $ZEC, which has trapped me for a month. Although it’s not rallying now, when will it drop below 1000 so I can break even…Last night, the Nasdaq hit a new high, but BTC failed to break higher and fell back again. What’s next? Although both US stocks and BTC are risk assets, the money behind them is different. US stocks are supported by AI orders, corporate earnings, and buybacks, so capital is willing to chase certainty. BTC rose from $57,800 to $87,000, relying more on ETF inflows, short covering, and sentiment recovery. At $85,000-$88,000, both trapped positions and bottom profit-taking are realized, making further gains naturally harder. There were two attempts to break $87,000 on the 4-hour chart, both rejected, but the price still holds above $83,800-$84,200, with MA120 and MA200 continuing to rise. So this is not a top, but a high-level rotation after a failed breakout. ETF inflows continue, but BTC has yet to surpass $87,000, indicating institutions have not retreated, but selling pressure above is heavier than expected. Next, focus on three levels: $86,000-$87,400 is the resistance zone; $83,800-$84,200 is the first support; $81,500-$82,000 is the trend defense line. Non-farm payroll data fell far short of expectations, yet gold and BTC declined instead; the market is playing out a second-level logic. Employment data was weak, which theoretically should lower rate hike expectations, and the market briefly surged when the data was released. However, after the U.S. stock market opened, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded and the trend reversed. The market no longer trades solely on short-term rate cut expectations but instead worries about rising crude oil prices and fiscal deficits causing long-term inflation pressure, pushing up long-term term premiums and suppressing interest-free assets. Going forward, focus on crude oil, long-term bond yields, and the U.S. dollar. BTC support is seen at 85000, ETH at 2650. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Non-farm payrolls landed, with data much lower than expected, cutting the bets on an October rate hike significantly. $BTC faces heavy selling pressure above, with sell orders piling up. Don't try to catch a falling knife at this level. Wait for a pullback before considering going long. Don't assume that just because the news is positive, the price must surge; the market is always right, it calls the shots. $ETH's direction is clear, with the probability of an October rate hike dropping another notch, so the strategy of buying the dip still holds. This report just revised expectations; the price still has to move on its own. No rush, no chasing. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Trader's darkest moment: being stabbed by SAND and the dull knife cut loss of BTC Looking at these two settlement slips on the screen, my hands are still trembling slightly. This is not just the evaporation of funds, but a devastating blow to the mindset. That spike from SAND was a blatant massacre. Within just over ten minutes, the market violently surged, directly breaking through my defense line. I entered a short position at 0.07322, expecting a pullback, but the price mercilessly swept past 0.08045. The 3x leverage felt so fragile against such an absolute violent surge; I didn't even have time to set a stop loss. I was repeatedly crushed by the main funds on the ground and forced out instantly. As for the BTC trade, it was even more frustrating to the point of internal injury. I shorted at 83,752 and held on for a day and a night. There were clearly several chances to stop loss and exit, but I was hopeful and unwilling to admit defeat, insisting on waiting for it to drop. What happened? The market oscillated upward to 85,423, and I was forced to cut losses with a painful 41% loss. The most ironic part is that after cutting losses, it neither rose nor fell, just sideways oscillating there, as if mocking my incompetence. This dull knife cut loss feeling is more disgusting than a direct liquidation. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 As usual, one last look before bed～👀 BTC 84830, all day just hovering back and forth within these few dozen points. I've been watching OKX so closely, almost made my eyes sore. It was 84590 this morning, now 84830, up less than three hundred points. The trading volume is probably the same as yesterday, shrunk down like an ant's waist. Both bulls and bears seem like they haven't eaten, neither willing to make the first move, purely a time-wasting game. I checked, there's support at 84300-84500, selling pressure stacked at 85000-85500, volume hasn't expanded, indicating that last night's sharp drop washed out most panic sellers, what's left are just posers… I'll mark the key $BTC levels: Support: 83800-84000, if broken look for 83000-83200. Resistance: 85000-85500, if it can't rebound past this, it's weak. My plan: I haven't re-entered the position I reduced at 86800 last night, waiting for it to find its own direction. I'll buy again if it pulls back near 84000 with shrinking volume and stops falling; if it directly surges to 85500 without volume, I'll keep reducing. No movement all day, so no need to force it.Drop, drop, the harder it falls, the happier I am!! $ZEC This drop is already decided! I've held on from -800% until now! The break-even point is just ahead! Sisters, ZEC has crashed from the high of 1698 all the way down to 1292, a retracement of over 23% from the peak. It couldn't hold 1400, nor 1300, the next target is 1200! This drop is not accidental; it's the result of multiple pressures erupting simultaneously. First, ETF funds are accelerating their exit. Grayscale ZCSH had a single-day net outflow of $30.25 million, and on October 2nd another outflow of $26.93 million. The 3-for-1 stock split did not stop the selling pressure; cumulative net inflows have declined, and assets under management have dropped from a peak of about $979 million to about $751 million. Second, the Bitget hacker incident added fuel to the fire. On September 24th, Bitget was hacked for $387 million. On-chain investigator ZachXBT marked 2,746 ZEC (about $3.9 million) flowing from the hacker's address into the Zcash privacy pool. The market worries that privacy coins are being used for money laundering, which severely hurt sentiment. Third, whales are selling off in concentration. On September 28th, whale Lee Goon Wang placed a limit order on Hyperliquid to sell 15,000 ZEC at about 2% below market price, with a nominal value of $23 million. The next day, another whale address bought at an average price of $425, profited over $27 million, then sold 25,001 ZEC. The price quickly fell from the previous high, with intraday drops exceeding 12%. Fourth, the technicals have clearly weakened. The 4-hour MACD death cross continues to diverge, EMA50 suppresses upward movement at $1493, and the price is running near the lower Bollinger Band, showing clear exhaustion of bullish momentum. Key level: $1233 is the decisive watershed. Once the daily close effectively breaks below $1233, the downside space fully opens, and $1200 or even lower is not far off. Resistance above lies in the $1400-$1490 range; rebounds meeting resistance are opportunities for short positions. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Grayscale ZCSH experienced its worst week since listing. A net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week. Assets under management shrank from the September peak of $979 million down to $751 million. The more critical issue is: ZCSH once held nearly 3.5% of the total supply of $ZEC. When this formerly largest marginal buyer starts continuous redemptions, it ceases to be support — it becomes selling pressure itself. Every redemption order ultimately turns into a sell order on the spot market.Good night, made some breakfast money, calling it a day 😌 Better to stop before waking up to a blowup Closed a small short position on HOME, 10x isolated margin. Playing with a small position casually, took 52% profit, pocketed it and done. Not much money, just enough for breakfast. $HOME #BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm 🚩Friends, I’m Old Gun~Super Bro🤝 This time, let’s change perspective: instead of looking at candlesticks, let’s look at ETH’s "relative position" and "hidden cards." First, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped to around 0.031, a new cycle low. Capital prefers buying BTC over ETH, showing a clear vampire effect. Second, the options market has a large amount of bearish positions clustered at 2600. Market makers are negatively gamma, so the closer the price gets, the more it tends to be suppressed. Third, on-chain gas fees are at rock bottom, L2 is hollowing out the mainnet’s value capture, burn volume is weak, and the deflation narrative is temporarily fading. Fourth, the staking exit queue is pushed to next year, so selling pressure is like a chronic illness. But conversely, once BTC stabilizes and ETH/BTC rebounds from oversold, short covering will be very violent. So in the short term, follow BTC’s lead and don’t bottom-fish ETH alone. Wait for the exchange rate to stop falling or for ETFs to have net inflows for 3 consecutive days before making a move. Right now, it’s about endurance, not gambling. 👉Do you agree with Super Bro’s view? Share your thoughts in the comments👀 $ETH $BTC $ZEC #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #Tensions between the US and Iran continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves ETH liquidation pressure: Focus on $2,533.2 below and $2,801.26 above Data: ETH current price is approximately $2,680.63. A drop of about 5.5% to around $2,533.2 may lead to concentrated liquidations of some high-leverage long positions; If the price rises about 4.5% to around $2,801.26, some high-leverage short positions may face concentrated liquidations. Currently, the upper liquidation zone is closer to the current price, meaning if the price fluctuates upward, short liquidation pressure may appear earlier. Other notable zones: below at $2,479.58, $2,325.45; above at $2,814.66, $2,982.2. The above levels are estimated based on public market prices and changes in open interest contracts, and do not represent guaranteed price targets or predictions of rise or fall. Compared to the snapshot with the same criteria 24 hours ago, it has decreased by 2.28%. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ZEC has been dropping these days, but I haven't really panicked. After pulling back from nearly $1700, considering it had risen so much before, deleveraging and profit-taking are quite normal. But today, seeing the ETF fund data, I think this round of adjustment deserves serious attention. ZEC-related ETFs saw a net outflow of about $93.56 million this week, marking the first weekly net outflow since their launch. More importantly, this wasn't caused by someone suddenly dumping a large amount in one day. On September 30, about $30.25 million flowed out; on October 1, about $28.26 million; and on October 2, another $26.93 million flowed out. Funds have been withdrawing for three consecutive days. This is completely different from contract liquidations. Liquidations often happen because of excessive leverage forcing positions to be closed by price movements; continuous net outflows from ETFs indicate that funds entering through this channel are actively reducing their positions. The timing is quite interesting. On October 6, Zcash's NU7 upgrade will launch on the testnet, with block times planned to shorten from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and privacy transaction capacity will further increase. In other words, the fundamental catalyst is approaching, yet funds are already moving out in advance. So, when I look at ZEC now, I'm less concerned about whether 1280 or 1300 is the bottom. I'm more interested in when the ETF outflows will stop in the coming days. If, as NU7 approaches, ETF outflows significantly shrink or even turn positive again, then this recent move looks more like high-level capital rotation, with funds willing to return after deleveraging. But if the upgrade is imminent and ETFs still withdraw tens of millions of dollars daily, then we have to admit one thing: The most important institutional capital logic for ZEC is at least cooling off in the short term. So these days, I won't rush to guess the bottom just because of a big drop. I'll first watch whether the money keeps flowing out. Sometimes, capital flow is much more honest than a single rebound candlestick.[Pharaoh's Market Watch] Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, stock price up 5%, can SanDisk ride the wave? Pharaoh says directly, these two are completely unrelated, don't force the connection. Tesla is about electric vehicles and AI autonomous driving, while SanDisk's business is AI data centers, NAND supply and demand, and enterprise SSDs. Tesla cars might use some storage chips, but that's just a small part, not SanDisk's main business. There is a slight indirect impact, but very weak. Tesla's 5% rise boosts tech stock sentiment, the Nasdaq risk appetite improves, and SanDisk, as a component of the S&P 100 and Nasdaq 100, might bounce a bit. But that's just sentiment sugar, not fundamental meat. What really matters for SanDisk are Micron's guidance, NAND prices, long-term contract execution, and HBF progress; Tesla's delivery data doesn't rank here. In terms of trading, don't chase SanDisk just because of Tesla's good news. If SanDisk surges on sentiment, that's an opportunity to reduce your position, not a reason to buy in. Wait for it to pull back to key support levels, like previous platforms or moving averages, then decide whether to act based on signals from the storage sector. Remember, Tesla is Tesla, SanDisk is SanDisk. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5% 📉 $ETH — Stop Pushing Higher? The Trend Is Showing Signs of Weakness Woke up this morning and checked the market—my 100x $ETH short is still in floating profit, but the latest rebound has already given back a significant portion of those gains. With extreme leverage, unrealized profits can disappear incredibly fast. Meanwhile, $AAVE has been even more challenging. The short position remains deeply underwater as price continues moving higher against the trade, with unrealized losses continuinExtremely oversold! CORE falls below 0.022, are the working brothers panicking? On the evening of October 3rd, CORE is currently at 0.02208 (-2.64%) On the 1-minute chart, MA5 to MA20 are all clustered around 0.02210, with the price hugging the moving averages, the direction is extremely unclear. But the KDJ indicator (K:14.72, D:15.12) has already fallen into the extremely oversold zone, indicating a short-term technical rebound demand at any time. The 24-hour low is 0.02129, the high is 0.02365, with considerable volatility. This market is like cutting meat with a dull knife. The hard-earned sweat money of laborers, absolutely do not open high-leverage contracts to bet on direction. KDJ oversold does not mean an immediate surge; after sideways consumption, there may be a second dip. I currently hold spot positions with hedging protection, floating loss is very small (screenshot shows a position of 80,000, with only a floating loss of 6.44), able to endure. Spot holders are advised to lock positions and stay put, do not add positions recklessly, wait for the market to stabilize. As long as you don't touch leverage, a crash will never liquidate your position. $BTC $CORE #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Cyber Emergency Room: The Account's Tale of Two Extremes Tonight's account is like a large-scale cyber emergency scene, playing out an extremely surreal "tale of two extremes": two main forces are wildly carrying the whole game, while one "deadbeat" is recklessly feeding kills. The biggest amusement of the whole scene is none other than ZEC. The average holding price is 1403, but the latest price is stuck at 1315. Floating loss is 64.41U, with a return rate shockingly showing -132.30%! The forced liquidation price column even reads "--". Yes, you read that right, the loss rate has hit -132%. This position has long fallen below the margin, now like a bottomless pit that can't be filled, greedily sucking up the hard-earned sweat money made from BTC and SOL. On the other side, SOL is fighting hard to defend the price, trying to pull this "deadbeat" back from the ICU. Looking at this account net value hedged in red and green, one can't help but sigh: in the crypto market, sometimes you don't need to fight against the house, you just need to guard against the "traitor" inside your own account. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 🏦🌐 Four South Korean banks shared a panel with Ripple at XRP Seoul 2026 today. The session, titled "From Cross-Border Payments to Tokenized Deposits," drew a crowd of more than 5,000 people.#特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5% Folks, Tesla's Q3 delivery data is out, and it set a clear example for the market. In the third quarter, 486,500 vehicles were delivered, 5% higher than the market expectation of 462,000. Although this is a slight 2% decrease compared to the same period last year, the market completely ignored this detail—exceeding expectations is what counts. The stock price surged about 5% intraday, reaching $372, and finally closed up 4.65%. What does this indicate? It shows that despite high U.S. Treasury yields and tight macro liquidity, solid real earnings can still support tech stock valuations. This is a boost to sentiment across all risk assets. Tesla's delivery data, combined with last night's unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls, suggests the real economy isn't as bad as imagined, and market sentiment is recovering. But folks, don't blindly rush in just because Tesla's stock rose. This is a short-term positive and doesn't change the broader macro trend. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, and rate hike expectations are cooling but not disappearing. Bitcoin briefly rebounded last night on the nonfarm data but is still consolidating around 86,000, showing no clear one-sided trend. $TSLA $BTC 🚀 10U Challenge Day 4 | Altcoin pump-and-dump double kill, wiped out in one day! 【Challenge Board】 🏁 Starting Capital: 10.00 U 🎯 Goal: 1 BTC 💰 Current Net Value: 0.72 U (Today: -14.47U / -75.40%) 🧊 Available Funds: 0.72 U 【Today's Operations】 Today got ground down repeatedly by SAND and CT, all the 19U profit from yesterday wiped out: Long $SAND: GameFi narrative pump, 0.083→0.059, 40% amplitude fakeout, the market maker used positive news to dump, repeatedly stopped out and got hit on both ends Long $CT: New coin, 0.56→0.48 continuous stealthy decline with no rebound, the more I patched the deeper the loss 【Current Positions】 All closed, no positions 【Review and Bloodied Advice】 Core lesson: Stay away from altcoin pump-and-dump schemes. SAND pumps under the banner of GameFi revival, CT harvests under the "new coin" label, essentially all market makers drawing K-lines for you to see. Technical analysis is a joke in such markets, B/S signals are all lagging traps. Set three iron rules: No new coins Don't trust altcoin narrative pumps Never gamble to recover losses below survival line The 10U principal is still there, lesson learned. Stay calm over the weekend, try again next week.🫡 The price has jumped roughly 20% over the last 12 hours, but the positioning behind the move is telling a very different story. Earlier around midnight, there were about 543 long-side accounts versus 232 shorts. Since then, despite the price continuing higher, the long side hasn't really chased the move. Instead, around 20 long positions have been reduced, while shorts have expanded by roughly 100 accounts. Short exposure has now climbed to around $6.7M, putting it well above the long-side positokay so ...$ZRO 📌Entry: 2.09 - 2.11 🟢SL: 2.14 🎯TP1: 2.04 🎯TP2: 1.98 🎯TP3: 1.90 ZRO is overextended after a +20% vertical pump, stalling at the 2.1166 24h resistance. Momentum is fading, suggesting a counter-trend scalp as early longs take profit. Tight stop above the recent high; a break above 2.12 invalidates the setup. #StrategyBuys1665BTC #USCryptoTaxADAPTAct I was ready to long $SAND after seeing the crazy funding, but Doubao told me to short instead. 🤦 45% pump, RSI 97, EMA200 resistance—everything sounded bearish. I actually bought the story… and got humbled. 😂#G7OilReserveRelease #NvidiaRecordHigh #USNFPDataCools 🚨 **TRADING LESSON** A breakout alone doesn't mean the trend has changed. Look for **3 confirmations:** 1️⃣ Price breaks resistance 2️⃣ Volume expands 3️⃣ The breakout level holds as support **A breakout is not confirmation; the key is the pullback holding steady.** Smart traders watch the **confirmation**, not just the candle. 👀 #BTC #Crypto #Trading $BTC RSI 63, MACD zeroed: BTC is holding back for a volume breakout K Information: The Federal Reserve just released a stablecoin regulatory draft, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to a 19-year high, and the macro environment continues to suppress risk appetite. But on-chain shows a completely different picture: wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC increased by 41,025 BTC in 10 days, total holdings account for 67.93% of total supply, retail holdings remain almost unchanged. ETF net inflow was $2.65 billion in September and continues in October. Technical: Price is repeatedly rubbing within the 83,800–87,500 range box. RSI 63.19, textbook neutral to bullish, neither overbought nor weak. MACD histogram zeroed, signal line and MACD line locked — momentum hasn't disappeared, just recharging. The 7/20/50/200-day moving averages are all below the current price, with the 200-day line at 71,461, the mid-to-long-term structure remains intact. The first strong resistance above is 86,574, the second wall is 87,500–88,500; below, 83,916 (38.2% retracement) is the first defense bulls must hold, losing it targets 81,500–82,800. Trader perspective: The cost-benefit of chasing longs at this position is low; wait for a pullback near 83,900 to confirm support, or wait for a volume breakout above 86,574 before following. Trade within the range, don't dream of a breakout; if a real breakout happens, the market will give you a signal. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT Core Beneficial Provisions 1. Compliant USD stablecoins used for everyday goods consumption will no longer recognize capital gains or losses, applicable only to ordinary users; traders and market makers do not enjoy this exemption. 2. On-chain gas fees under $10 per transaction are exempt from taxable recognition, solving the tax reporting difficulties for retail users' daily interactions. 3. Clear taxation timing for staking and mining income; asset lending follows traditional securities lending tax treatment; traders can opt for mark-to-market accounting; a safe harbor is also set for foreign investors. Key Restrictive Provisions with Negative Impact The bill extends the US stock market's Wash Sale rule to crypto assets. That is, if a loss is realized by selling and the same type of crypto asset is repurchased shortly after, that loss cannot be used to offset taxes, directly invalidating many tax loss harvesting strategies commonly used by traders, imposing constraints on high-frequency traders. Market Interpretation Overall, it is neutral to slightly positive, not a tax tightening but setting rules for the industry, reducing friction for ordinary users using stablecoins for payments, benefiting the payment stablecoin sector. However, the implementation of the wash sale rule will compress the tax optimization space for short-term traders. The bill still has a long review process before taking effect; even if passed smoothly, most provisions will not be officially implemented until 2027, so it will not directly change current market trading in the short term. It is a mid-to-long-term institutional benefit with limited short-term market stimulus. $BTC $ETH The reason behind DOGE's rebound in September does not lie in DOGE itself, but in stablecoins. New money entering the crypto market follows a fixed path: first converting into USDT or USDC and staying within the exchange, then flowing into risk assets when the opportunity arises. Therefore, changes in stablecoin market capitalization become a leading indicator to observe capital willingness. September's data confirmed this path. USDT's market cap increased by $2 billion in a single month, USDC by $1.5 billion, totaling about $3.5 billion of new money entering the market within one month. The expansion of stablecoins indicates a rise in risk appetite: funds first establish a base position, then overflow from mainstream assets to more elastic varieties. DOGE stands at the end of this overflow chain, and the precondition for its rebound in September was thus established. It is important to distinguish that stablecoin growth is a necessary condition, not a sufficient one. It provides ammunition but does not guarantee firing. Next, watch two signals: whether the growth rate of stablecoin market cap continues, and whether the stablecoin holdings within exchanges decrease— the former indicates new money is still entering, the latter shows money is leaving the parking area to flow into risk assets. Only when both signals are present does $DOGE's market have a foundation for continuation; if stablecoin growth stagnates, the rebound lacks fuel.Day 7 Starting capital: 10U Target: 1,000U Current balance: 92.40U Current profit: 34.05U Day 7 was another roller coaster. 😂 Earlier, when ETH suddenly pushed higher, I placed a stop-loss and ended up taking a 43U loss. It hurt, but I didn't want to let one trade completely derail the challenge. Later, another setup appeared, so I temporarily borrowed 45U, reopened the position, and waited. ETH eventually turned lower, and the second trade brought in around 75U, which more than recovered the pRetail funds have not exited; they are just choosing sides again. In September, GME and AMC consolidated sideways, while DOGE rose about 15% during the same period. The three treasures, which used to move up and down together in 2021, have now diverged. Five years ago, these three assets shared the same capital pool: retail investors banded together, liquidity was loose, and social platforms called the shots, resulting in almost synchronized price movements. Now, the originally shared funds are starting to split. On the stock side, GME's transformation story has been told for years, the proposal to acquire eBay remains unresolved, and there is a lack of new catalysts; AMC has continued to issue more shares this year, diluting equity and suppressing rebound momentum. On the crypto side, DOGE now has a spot ETF as an institutional channel, combined with the Musk narrative and expectations for payment integration, the story continues. Behind this divergence is a structural change: liquidity in the crypto market is becoming independent from the US stock retail segment. Previously, DOGE's buying pressure depended on where retail investors put the money they earned in the stock market. Now, with the ETF opening an independent source, crypto assets have their own pricing pool and no longer wait for funds to spill over from stocks. Next, watch for two signals: whether $DOGE can convert its narrative heat into sustained net inflows, and whether GME and AMC can produce new catalysts to pull funds back to the stock side. Until then, the divergence among the three treasures will continue.$ZEC brothers, $ZEC has dropped below 1300. After this support breaks, feel free to short boldly! Why has ZEC been falling continuously? There are three reasons. First, ETF funds are running out. The Zcash spot ETF saw a net outflow of as much as $93.6 million this week, marking the first weekly net outflow since its launch in August, with institutions withdrawing. Second, the hacker incident impact. The 2746 ZEC stolen from Bitget were transferred through privacy pools, casting a shadow on Zcash's compliance image. Third, it has risen too much. From 480 to 1698, a 253% increase, profit-taking is piling up, so a pullback is inevitable. Looking at the market now, the current price is 1292.63. I opened a short at 1316.22, with a floating profit of 5.37%. The long-short ratio is 29% to 71%, retail investors are still holding on stubbornly.
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