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$CORE My biggest pleasure right now is browsing the CORE community. A bunch of poor souls who can call a soft exit decentralization. I understand them; after all, they are already trapped and numb. If they accept it in their hearts, then they might as well prepare to jump off the rooftop. Millions turned into hundreds—who can bear that? But undeniably, it really is a soft exit. The premise of decentralization is dispersed tokens. Now look at the on-chain data: who holds the most tokens? It's the project team. Over 90% of the tokens are in their hands. Where is the decentralization? Which institution dares to come in? Just after pumping the price, they immediately dump hundreds of millions of tokens. Whose blood are they sucking? It's the little savings you worked hard to earn, devalued day by day. Not to mention anything else, they said they burned over 100 million tokens. Is there a burn address? Did they give you the promised event report? Have the 60 million tokens transferred out been recovered? With this situation, who dares to pump the price? Carry the sedan chair for them? Or let you break even and immediately run away? Think again. They only draw big promises, endlessly sucking blood from you, giving you a glimmer of hope so you won't despair, forever dangling you.Looking at my account today, my feelings are really mixed. BTC and SOL are desperately trying to recover my losses, but ZEC, this bottomless pit, has directly taught me an extremely costly risk management lesson. BTC (The Stabilizer) Average holding price 84044, latest price 84510. Unrealized profit 276.58U, return rate 11.03%. BTC remains the ballast of my account, steadily climbing. The defense line is still around 79000; as long as it doesn't break, I will hold firmly, not guessing the top, nThe price is consolidating around 84,500, with short-term buying dominance (about 70% of active buys in the last 5 and 15 minutes). The near-term targets are the recent high at 84,690 and the resistance wall at 85,059. The current price of 84,573 is close to the Bollinger Bands middle band and the support zone at the 20-period swing low of 84,481, which is a position suitable for immediate entry, so go long at market price directly. Place the stop loss just outside the liquidation cluster below at 84,490; only a break below this area would indicate the bullish structure has failed. Set the take profit at the resistance wall at 85,059, which is the nearest significant selling pressure above. The main risk is that the 1-hour active funds are still net outflow and the overall 24-hour trend is weak. If buying pressure cannot continue, the price may first retrace to the POC at 84,072 before resuming upward movement.Bitcoin broke the one-week stalemate yesterday, with the price twice surging near 87000 before retreating, closing with a long upper shadow bearish candlestick, directly confirming the heavy selling pressure in the 86000-87000 range. The short-term bullish momentum has clearly weakened, and there is a need to continue testing support with a pullback during the day. In the short term, don't expect it to rise above 90000; however, the lower Bollinger middle band support is clear, and there is no signal of a trend reversal to bearish for now. Overall, it remains in a consolidation pattern. Today, it is recommended to buy Bitcoin on dips near 84000 and sell on rallies near 86000; buy Ethereum on dips near 2650 and sell on rallies near 2750. Be patient and seize the oscillating market! #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张,G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 The non-farm payroll night has ended, but the market did not receive the "big gift". Non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, missing the expected 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The data is weak, and a rate cut is not a one-click start: US Treasury yields remain high, and the dollar has not weakened, so the policy shift is still far off. $BTC climbed back above 86,000 in early trading, lightly touching 87,000 after the data, with a daily increase of about 2%-3%, holding the rebound; $ETH gradually pushed from 2600 to 2750, breaking through the late September consolidation zone, but the upward momentum was not strong enough; $SOL was more active, surging near 122, up 3%-4% in 24 hours, leading the mainstream. The market did not stir big waves; interest rates and the dollar remain two mountains overhead. It looks more like a recovery now, not a bull return. Positions can be flexible, but don't be too confident in your judgment. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #SoFi与万事达卡启动稳定币结算 L #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷,高利率压力待解 500U Challenge to 1000U|Account Back Above 900+U, Watch Closely for the Trap of Profit-Taking After Positive News🔥 Starting from 500U with a target of 10,000U, yesterday's pullback has been fully recovered, and the account is now above 900U. This round of retracement and reversal was executed very well. The positive non-farm payroll news was actually priced in by the market in advance. BTC and ETH rallied on the news but failed to break previous highs and then faced resistance and pulled back. The core reason is typical profit-taking after good news, with bulls collectively cashing out. Many people focus only on the non-farm data but overlook the abnormal movement in US Treasury yields: after the non-farm release, US Treasury yields briefly dipped then rebounded, directly suppressing risk asset valuations; combined with the renewed escalation of Middle East conflicts, risk-averse funds diverted, and multiple negative factors resonated. This is the fundamental logic behind my choice to position short orders. The $ZEC short position has been successfully closed with profit. Currently holding short positions in BTC and ETH, waiting for liquidity to return on Monday before making closing decisions. Key point to remember: Non-farm payrolls are just a short-term catalyst; US Treasury yields are the core mainline determining the medium-term bullish or bearish trend for BTC and ETH. Rising interest rates naturally pressure crypto asset valuations; when US Treasury yields decline, funds are willing to flow back into high-risk coins. Weekend liquidity is poor, and the market is prone to spikes and interference, so don't be misled by small weekend fluctuations Who would have expected that a trust license would actually end up in court 🤍 A lawsuit filed by a local community bank group in the U.S. directly took the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to court. From the perspective of traditional banks, the regulator loosening trust qualifications for crypto companies is equivalent to opening a special green channel. Crypto platforms obtaining federal trust status do not have to bear the full regulatory obligations of ordinary banks, and over time, the competitive balance will gradually tilt. On the other hand, the SEC's attitude is completely different. Atkins recently signaled readiness to finalize new custody rules, providing asset management institutions with a compliant solution for storing crypto assets. On one side, the banking industry is striving to build barriers to protect their original business turf; on the other, regulators are trying to establish a clear compliance path. A tug-of-war over custody authority is quietly unfolding. In the coming period, regulatory trends will continue to influence market sentiment, so it’s wise to remain cautious with short-term positioning. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH Data surprises, retail investors blindly rush in after seeing the data, but this plays right into the hands of the main players. On-chain data shows that whales drastically reduced 30,000 $BTC at the end of September, and the ETF ended a 9-day inflow streak. Funding rates soared to 10%, and buying pressure hit an August high — all of these are short-term peak signals of extreme long crowding! $BTC at 87K and $ETH at 2778 have become perfect distribution points. Capital structure is highly polarized: institutions firmly hold BTC base positions but treat ETH as a risk control withdrawal machine. ETH spot buying is very weak; if 2700 breaks, it will head straight to 2500. The current market is a test of patience, not luck. Remember not to catch a falling knife; wait for the golden dips in spot (BTC 82K / ETH 2500) and short the contract rebounds at highs. Control your hands and survive! #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #$BTC short position from yesterday has perfectly hit the take profit, just fantasizing about the future trend 👀 BTC might follow one of two possible moves next; no matter what, the long-term outlook is bullish! Going long on dips is definitely safe. Two major support levels to watch are around 82500 and 74500. You can gradually buy spot positions at these two levels 😎 For short-term trades, place orders at these two points: long at 82666 with stop loss at 82100, and long at 74666 with stop loss below 74000. Place orders with stop losses at these two levels; the win rate is very high. As for other levels, just leave the profits to others.Weekend Market Chat ✨ Sentiment Rebounds After Nonfarm Payrolls Release Happy weekend, meow~ Nonfarm payrolls fell far short of expectations, suppressing rate hike expectations, leading to market recovery. But remember, weekend liquidity is thin, so impulse moves should be discounted. $BTC is currently around 86,000. After the nonfarm data release, ETF funds flowed back, and market sentiment has clearly warmed compared to previous days. The 87,000 level is a short-term critical resistance; only a volume breakout can open the way upward. If it repeatedly fails to break through, a pullback and consolidation are likely. Avoid chasing weekend violent rallies. $ETH is rebounding along with Bitcoin, supported by easing rate expectations. It has completed a short-term recovery from lows and must hold above 2800 to continue the rebound; if it falls below 2750 again, this rally is merely a relief bounce after bad news, not the start of a new uptrend. $SOL holds above 120, with ETF narratives and on-chain activity supporting fundamentals, maintaining strong momentum. Short-term resistance is at 125; only a volume-backed hold above this level can fuel further gains. Weekend markets are thin and prone to spikes; prioritize waiting for pullbacks before considering positions, avoid chasing impulse rallies. $OKB’s token supply and ecosystem logic remain unchanged; currently digesting earlier profits. As long as key support levels hold, the trend remains intact. Avoid chasing during euphoric rallies; waiting for pullbacks offers better risk-reward. $RE oscillates around 0.5. RWA and reinsurance narratives are attracting funds again, and improved protocol yields support fundamentals. However, circulating supply is only 16%, and unlocking pressure on the 18th looms overhead, so risks cannot be ignored. Holding steady around 0.5 suggests a recovery rally is possible, but position sizes must be controlled. Overall: Nonfarm data fed positive news to the market, but weekend institutional liquidity contracts, increasing false breakouts and spikes. Do not treat small weekend gains as confirmation of a major uptrend. Avoid opening new high-leverage positions aggressively; be patient for pullbacks or wait for Monday liquidity to return before deciding. $BTC $ETH $SOL $OKB $RE #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling fund enthusiasm$ONE is challenging it again after being severely hit before. Today it continues to short, weakly drifting down, still holding. The strong resistance above is $0.0022-$0.0023, and the short-term lifeline below is $0.0020; if it breaks, look to $0.0018. Retail investors are biased long, while the main contract holders are retreating, with long positions liquidated heavily—this is a typical "long graveyard." Long-short ratio: retail investors are biased long, large holders are relatively restrained. OKX retail long-short ratio is 1.53, Binance retail is 1.0572. Overall retail is biased long. For large holders: the number long-short ratio is 1.401, and the position long-short ratio is only 1.3853. Fundamentals ONE previously announced shutting down its 7-year-running mainnet, transforming into an AI video "mixed-cut economy," and in August it suffered a hacker attack that minted 3 trillion tokens out of thin air. There is huge uncertainty in fundamentals; this surge is more about capital games and narrative hype. $BTC $ETH #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 During Bitcoin's surge, short positions were collectively liquidated. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin short liquidations reached $122 million, with total network liquidations around $210 million, indicating that short positions near $87,000 were concentratedly cleared. However, it's worth noting that the bulls have not truly dominated the market—after the liquidation, the price quickly fell back, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy. This structure is actually quite typical: a short squeeze only clears out the crowded side and does not mean the trend has turned bullish. The real strength or weakness depends on whether spot funds take over after the liquidations. Therefore, I prefer to interpret this as a leverage clearing rather than a reversal signal. Next, watch if the trading volume can keep up; if there are only liquidations without support, the rebound is likely just a chance to sell. $BTCPlummeted, plummeted, $ZEC has crashed, breaking below 1300! Brothers, ZEC really made me laugh this time. A few days ago it was crazily surging around 2800, I even suspected it was going to snatch Ethereum's spot, but now it has directly fallen below 1300! The crazier it rises, the fiercer it falls. Altcoins are like this: when they pump, everyone believes in the bull market; when they dump, everyone runs faster than the next. My short position finally recovered: +1029.68% Opening average price: 1660.36 Latest transaction price: 1318.52 I waited half a month for this trade. Shorting ZEC last week was a real meat grinder; shorts were swept out round after round, I almost thought it wouldn't drop. Now it's finally the longs' turn to suffer. In 24 hours, ZEC liquidations exceeded $24 million, with long liquidations clearly higher than shorts; the market is clearing longs. The US ZEC spot ETF has also seen continuous net outflows recently, putting significant short-term capital pressure. In contrast, Bitcoin, although volatile, is clearly more stable than ZEC. So I just want to say: ZEC, you kept me awake last week, now it's finally your turn to make me laugh. But don't get too cocky with this demon coin; breaking below 1300 doesn't mean it will keep falling all the way down. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 Yesterday, the short position on Bitcoin ran away. In this kind of market, you can't have a broad perspective; the first two trades were stopped out because of that. It's the weekend now. Since Bitcoin broke through the previous high last time, it has been consolidating and digesting in this range for 11 days, oscillating back and forth within this 5% range. The high is around 2800 and the low is around 2620. I expect this range-bound fluctuation to be nearing its end, and when the direction becomes clear, I'll enter directly because there is a lot of buying below 2650, so it won't go down further. I estimate there might be some volatility on Monday, but it's not the time to rush now. If there's no market movement over the weekend, operate less. "Walk to the end of the water, sit and watch the clouds rise; just wait for the wind to come."🔥"$BTC acts like an old veteran, $ETH plays the loyal sidekick, and $SOL is dancing on the sidelines" Today, the three big players are in these states: 🟠 $BTC: The old veteran strolling around near 84,000 dollars, hands behind back, unbothered by anyone. If you're anxious, you're out of place. 🔵 $ETH: The faithful little sidekick, moves half a step when the big coin moves, gets tired first when the big coin rests. At 2,680 dollars, it’s like waiting for takeout—smelling the aroma but can’t eat it. 🟣 $SOL: While other coins are oscillating, it’s dancing. Buy at 119 dollars, sell at 119 dollars, performing a heart rate monitor graph in between, maxed out heart rate with zero profit. Netizens summed it up well: "SOL’s candlestick isn’t walking, it’s parkouring." Overall: Big coin $BTC controls the scene, $ETH is bleeding, and $SOL contributes its fees to blockchain environmental efforts. This market is best for zoning out, not for adding positions—if you get excited, it flatlines, and you two just stare at each other all day. Remember this: Sideways trading is the silent cost in crypto; smile, at least your mindset is breaking even first. Here's something that might be overlooked by the crypto community. Things are getting tense again in the Middle East. Iran has declared that it is "ready for the resumption of hostilities." On the other side, Trump said, "I've been considering" resuming strikes. Both sides might have another round of talks on the 28th. What does this have to do with crypto? A lot. If a conflict really breaks out, the first step is a surge in oil prices. Look for yourself, oil prices have already risen, Brent crude has broken 98. When oil prices rise, inflation becomes uncontrollable, and the Federal Reserve becomes even more reluctant to ease. This is the combination the crypto world fears most. But interestingly, historically, every time there is a geopolitical conflict, BTC first falls along with the stock market, and only then is it speculated on as a "safe-haven asset." My prediction: if something really happens, don't rush to bottom-fish. Wait for it to fall, and only when everyone thinks the world is ending is that the position worth watching. Of course, I hope this doesn't happen. What do you think? Is geopolitical conflict bearish or bullish for BTC? Oh heavens! A 30-fold increase in 30 days, wildly earning 78,000, only to be brutally knocked back to square one by ZEC in just a few days! Awakening from a big dream, heart-wrenching pain! Reviewing my ZEC trades these past few days, it feels like a dog trader installed surveillance in my brain: 🔴 As soon as I go long, it plunges like a waterfall; 🔵 When I cut my long and switch to short, it just sideways trades, grinding me down; 🔴 When I can't hold and close my short, it instantly shoots up like a spring onion out of dry ground! I foolishly chase the long, only to get trapped dead at the peak! In reality, my resolve shattered, reckless operations, opening positions at wrong points. This is the most common mistake for most people, so I share this as a warning from my experience. Long positions lose, shorts grind, closing shorts take off, chasing longs get trapped. The 78,000 profit was slaughtered by both longs and shorts, vomiting back 54,000. Brothers, a bloody lesson! Take a break!$CP entered this today, continuing to short. This short-term is just a weak rebound; the larger downtrend is not over, and the overhead trapped positions are very heavy. OKX CP account long-short ratio: 4.29. In other words, the number of accounts going long on OKX far exceeds those going short. It's simply scary. Fundamentals: Small market cap DePIN, poor liquidity. Tagged as DePIN, market cap about $17.29 million, circulating supply 1.349 billion, total supply 5 billion. Small market cap coins are extremely volatile and easily manipulated by funds from a single exchange. Resistance above: $0.0130 - $0.0135. Support below: $0.0120; if broken, look at $0.0110, then further down to $0.0100. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% Long and Short Crowding List|Last 15 Minutes $SAND short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.6219%, price -0.44%, open interest +2.4%. Decline and increased positions occur simultaneously; holding shorts past settlement, funding fees will lower the breakeven price. $ENJ short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.2609%, price +3.03%, open interest -1.11%. Price rise accompanied by overall position contraction, holding shorts past settlement faces both adverse price movement and funding fee expenses. $MANA short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 8-hour rate -0.2176%, price +3.62%, open interest +6.92%. Price rise accompanied by increased positions, holding shorts past settlement faces both adverse price movement and funding fee expenses.The previous one-sided optimism was punctured by a snapshot of funds: BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, and the heat clearly cooled down. After the U.S. Bitcoin ETF had a cumulative net inflow of 3.1 billion over 9 trading days, it experienced two consecutive days of net outflows totaling about 173 million starting September 30; the Ethereum ETF turned bearish even earlier, with outflows for three consecutive days, including a single-day outflow of 55.4 million on October 1 alone. Previously, BTC and ETH diverged, but now they are retreating in unison. Combined with on-chain indicators, sentiment is quietly shifting. The root cause lies in the early realization of non-farm payroll benefits, with institutions taking profits. The liquidity expectations from the surprising non-farm payroll data led some funds to pre-position ahead of the data release pulse and exit during the sentiment window to take profits and reduce positions. The Coinbase report confirms this: BTC profit-taking has surged to a yearly high, and high-level buying has slowed—not a wholesale exit by large funds, but a short-term phase of "earning profits first and then cautiously observing." $BTC Beware of the "golden pit" illusion; don't immediately assume a main rally after the triple coin squat🔥 BTC dipped to 83884, ETH retraced to 2651, $SOL dropped to 117, with the market quickly plunging. Many voices directly define this as a main force shakeout or a golden pit, but multiple conflicting macro signals mean a retracement cannot be simply equated with a continuation of the uptrend. Nonfarm payroll data was a cold surprise with only 29,000 new jobs added and rising unemployment, which short-term suppresses rate hike expectations—this is bullish news for the bulls; however, on the other hand, spot ETFs simultaneously turned to net outflows, institutional funds are starting to cash out at highs, combined with US Treasury yields remaining high, the pressure from high interest rates is not immediately relieved by a single nonfarm report, and medium- to long-term liquidity pressure still looms over the market. Large holder positions can only be used as reference signals. Even if major players like "Maji Brother" have not massively closed long positions, large holders can still reduce positions in batches at highs while retaining base holdings, which does not mean the market will immediately start a main rally. The so-called sweeping of leveraged floating chips could be a shakeout or the beginning of a weakening trend; the key is whether buying can quickly return after the decline. Focus on two critical thresholds: BTC must hold support at 83,500–84,000; if volume breaks down below this, it is not a shakeout and will open a deeper correction space; resistance at 86,000–87,000 requires spot funds to cooperate with volume breakout to confirm a strong move. ETH’s short-term lifeline is 2650; if lost, the next support is at 2600; to restart the uptrend, it must firmly reclaim 2750. SOL must not effectively break below 117 support; resistance at 123–125 awaits a volume breakout to be overcome. The biggest trap now is the subjective assumption that "this is the last drop." Without short-term skills, do not rush to bottom fish just because of a retracement. After the nonfarm bullish news lands, it is easy to see a rally followed by profit-taking and pullback. Better to wait for a volume breakout confirmation before entering, rather than going all in early betting on "the shakeout ending and immediate rally." Leveraged positions must have strict stop losses; do not stubbornly hold betting on a big bullish candle. $BTC $ETH $SOL #US September nonfarm only added 29,000 jobs, unemployment rose to 4.2% #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turned to outflows, cooling capital heat #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolvedThree coins worth buying today, I'll be watching these 3 closely. The market isn't actually that strong today, BTC is still around 84,500, but some have already popped champagne on the gainers list. If I were to look for opportunities, today I'd focus on these three. 1. $BTC Still the ballast stone. BTC is currently about $84,600, with a slight dip in 24 hours, indicating that funds haven't fully rushed into risk assets. My approach is still to wait around 84,000–85,000, not chasing sudden spikes. Hold 84,000, then watch for a breakthrough at 87,000. 2. $SAND The most outrageous today is this one, OKX saw a 24-hour surge of over 70%, shooting straight to the top of the gainers list. I wouldn't go all in just because of a big bullish candle; instead, I wait for the first clear pullback. The best opportunity with strong coins is often not the initial surge, but whether it can hold after the spike. 3. $MANA Another clearly strengthening veteran coin today, MANA, with OKX data showing a 24-hour gain of over 20%. SAND and MANA moving together is more worth watching than just one surging alone, indicating that funds are clearly testing the old metaverse coins today. For a coin like SAND that jumps seventy to eighty points in a day, I can pay attention, but I won't blindly chase it; my hands aren't that strong yet. How concentrated is the $DOGE supply? Looking only at the top ten addresses might mislead you with the "numbers." Data shows that the top 10 DOGE addresses collectively hold about 45% of the circulating supply, which seems highly concentrated. But a deeper breakdown reveals that a significant portion belongs to custodial wallets of trading platforms like Robinhood and Binance. Just the exchange addresses identifiable on-chain may correspond to over 16% of DOGE. In other words, behind one whale address, there could be hundreds of thousands or even more ordinary users. On-chain address concentration does not necessarily mean the real control is equally concentrated. Looking further, there are about 8.1 million DOGE on-chain holding addresses. After excluding the top 1000 addresses, the remaining 8 million+ addresses still hold about 17% of the supply, with many small holdings ranging from 1 to 1000 DOGE. The low unit price, tipping culture, and payment use cases have long fostered a large community of small DOGE holders, somewhat resembling a fragmented supply pool made up of many "shrimp accounts." In contrast, for BTC, the top 100 addresses hold about 15% collectively, which seems more dispersed on the surface. However, the group of addresses holding over 100 BTC controls about 61% of the supply. This also involves special accounts like early dormant addresses, ETF custodial wallets, and exchange cold wallets. Therefore, simply judging an asset's supply concentration by the "top 10 address share" is incomplete. 14.2 billion transactions. Solana completed this many non-voting transactions in one quarter, 45% more than the previous quarter. My first reaction wasn’t excitement, but a few seconds of stunned silence. What does this number mean? It means people are really using the chain on-chain, not just fake volume or empty activity. Setting aside the fluff of voting transactions, the rest are all real interactions. Transfers, swaps, minting, gaming, claiming airdrops—all count. I’ve held $SOL for quite a while, and along the way I’ve been criticized, laughed at, and even doubted myself. During the downtime, the group chat was full of jokes, and I didn’t dare to say anything. Looking back now, the chain didn’t die, and the user base keeps growing. A 45% increase in one quarter isn’t a small number; it shows the user base is genuinely growing, not just a hype spike that fades away. Of course, more transactions don’t mean the price will immediately rise. I’ve learned this the hard way—good data and good price are two different things. But at least it shows one thing: this chain is still alive, and quite busy. Whether the price agrees or not, that’s another matter. As an old holder like me, I can only keep holding and wait for it to speak for itself. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #Strategy再购BTC,多家财库同步增持 #SEC加密资产托管新规,拟放宽机构自托管限制 $SOL 2Z dropped nearly 20%, yet the notional value of open positions remains about 6.3 times that of 24 hours ago. As of 08:16 Beijing time, OKEx spot is around $0.04533, with a 24-hour high of $0.05962 and a low of $0.04458, a volatility of about 33.7%; trading volume is approximately $3.16 million, about 3.6 times the median of the past 7 full trading days. OKEx hourly statistics show the notional value of open positions is about $363,000, compared to only about $57,500 24 hours ago; although it has fallen about 91.3% from the intraday high at 01:00, it has not returned to pre-volatility levels. The current funding rate is about -0.298%, with the perpetual contract trading at a discount of about 0.66% to spot. My judgment is that this is not a simple volume contraction decline: high-level leverage has largely exited, but the remaining positions still clearly lean towards paying to short. The easiest misjudgment is to treat the extreme negative funding rate as an inevitable rebound; the continued price decline indicates that paying shorts still hold the advantage for now, and the funding rate itself cannot substitute for evidence of a bottom. Next, watch $0.04458 and $0.05. If the low holds, funding rates converge, and positions no longer fluctuate wildly, selling pressure may begin to ease; if the low breaks while positions remain above pre-volatility levels, the remaining leverage will continue to amplify volatility. $2Z Trading, which is more important: the process or the result? During the holding period, every day someone shouts that ZEC will rise to 3000 or even 5000. The market jumps up and down, there's a lot of noise, and the mindset is repeatedly beaten down. I'm not a sage; I can't precisely time the top, nor perfectly catch the bottom. In this market, I can only make money with high probability. So, in trading, which matters more: the process or the result? I think both are important. The result determines whether you can survive, but the process determines whether you can become a true trader. If you can't endure the hardship, chasing the FOMO or closing your position, where would today's profit come from? Don't listen to others shouting trade signals; stick to your own logic, endure the toughest times, and the results will naturally speak for themselves. BTC, ETH, $BTC $ETH $ZEC $CORE A painful lesson A brother rushed in with 6U on the opening day. He said the group was crazy at the time, grabbing $CORE meant profit, at least 100x, launching at 1000x, crushing Ethereum, surpassing Bitcoin. The hype was huge. He got over ten thousand tokens, worth hundreds of thousands of yuan, thinking he would turn his life around. Then the next day, $5. The third day, $4. He asked the group what to do, the group leader said it was a shakeout, hold on. One month later, $1. Half a year later, $0.5. One year later, $0.05. No one spoke in the group anymore. The group leader had long disappeared, his avatar grayed out for two years. Now it’s $0.020. Over ten thousand tokens, hundreds of thousands of yuan, turned into two thousand yuan. He told me, actually the hardest part is not losing money. It’s that he didn’t even have a chance to run; the opening day was the highest point, selling any day after meant taking a loss. Selling on the first day would lose 20,000, selling on the second day would lose 60,000, the longer he waited the harder it was to let go, the harder it was to let go the more it dropped. $BICO is like boiling a frog in warm water; by the time you realize it, you can’t move. Now he still has those over ten thousand CORE tokens in his wallet, worth just two thousand yuan, selling or not makes no difference. He said sometimes he still opens it late at night to look, not even knowing what he’s looking at. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张,G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 100x full-position bidirectional trap, the cost of standing guard at the high point is right in front of you❗ The top influencer's reverse indicator "Green Hair" this time directly abandoned hedging, with two 100x full-position long orders trapped simultaneously, risk hanging overhead. $ETH long: entry 2722.32, current price 2679.61, holding 10 ETH, unrealized loss -427U, return rate -156%. $BTC long: entry 86392.1, current price 84623, holding 0.4 BTC, unrealized loss -707U, return rate -204%. Currently, the margin has not yet hit the liquidation line, but the fault tolerance for 100x full-position is extremely small. As long as the market dips slightly again, if the price drops a bit more, it will directly trigger forced liquidation. This is not bottom fishing, it's truly catching a flying knife. The core problem with high-leverage full-position is no buffer space; the market won't turn back just because the holder is holding on hard. Even if the long-term trend is bullish, short-term oscillations and pullbacks can directly wipe out the entire principal. Many expect the market to rebound to save the position, but in a choppy market, it's easy to get stuck grinding at low levels for a long time. Continuously holding the position, even without liquidation, ties up funds for a long time and mentally tortures the holder. Once the mindset collapses, it's easy to manually cut losses at the lowest point. Don't bet on the market to save trapped high-leverage positions; 100x leverage means a small pullback is enough to end the account. $BTC $ETH Midday Review The market has slightly pulled back. I reviewed the smart money data again and compared positions; it's another very realistic lesson. Regarding $HYPE: Whales still dominate the bulls, with 808 bulls vs 455 bears, a bull-to-bear ratio of 188%. Although the price has slightly retraced by -1.21%, and the proportion of profitable bulls has decreased, the overall positions are still firmly held. Smart money has not fled on a large scale; My $HYPE long position with 20x leverage still holds a steady floating profit of +2143.35, a return rate of 323.92%. A position following the trend has a different confidence even during a pullback. As for BICO, it's much more painful: Clearly, there are more whale bulls, but the bulls are largely losing money while the bears are mostly profiting, indicating that the bulls are continuously bottom-fishing and catching falling knives; My 8x full-position long is floating a loss of -1279.61, a return rate of -455.25%. Just because the direction is called "long" doesn't mean it's with the trend; the entry timing was wrong, and the longer you hold, the more passive you become. The biggest insight: Having more bulls doesn't necessarily mean the price will rise; you have to see who is truly making money. HYPE is smart money bulls taking profits, while $BICO is retail bulls repeatedly bottom-fishing and getting trapped. Following the trend is never about betting on a name of rise or fall, but about siding with the truly advantaged capital. Next, I will not add to the $BICO position and will prioritize protecting the profits already made on HYPE. Holding losing positions won't solve the problem; admitting mistakes will. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张,G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 The market for on-chain tokenized securities quietly surged to $3.35 billion in September, expanding several times compared to the beginning of the year. Even more intriguing is the shift in liquidity landscape: Ethereum's share shrank from nearly half at the start of the year to 22%, while the $BNB chain jumped to the top spot with a scale of $1.1 billion, accounting for nearly 30% of the entire network's share and 45% of holding addresses. The migration of funds between underlying public chains superficially appears as the expansion of tokenized real assets like U.S. stocks, but the underlying logic directly tests the liquidity absorption capacity of funds settled on-chain. A low-friction, high-turnover network environment has begun to siphon off originally dispersed RWA stock, attracting a large amount of retail and institutional capital seeking round-the-clock trading and low-threshold exposure. However, this rapidly expanding cake also hides concerns. A larger market size does not directly equate to truly active spot trading; many tokenized stocks, after initial minting or entry, remain dormant in addresses with very little turnover. If liquidity depth cannot be further activated through high-frequency turnover and decentralized finance scenarios, the on-paper volume is prone to becoming liquidity dead water. The battle for share in the public chain ecosystem hinges on whether these newly introduced tokenized assets can foster sustained spot trading and derivative play on-chain, or if they have merely completed a one-time migration of asset bookkeeping carriers. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 $BTC Another L2 can't hold on anymore, this time it's Blast. The official deadline is October 26th, by which all assets must be withdrawn back to the Ethereum mainnet. The reason is very practical: the cost of maintaining this chain has already exceeded its revenue, the accounts just don't add up. The official team will shorten the withdrawal waiting time to 24 hours, but they need to first handle the Lido portion of the assets, which will take about a week. During this period, the withdrawal function will be directly suspended, and no tokens can be withdrawn. The significance of this event is not just that one less chain exists. The once wildly popular Layer 2 network shutting down so abruptly indicates that the "battle royale" of L2s has already begun—chains without real demand and revenue support can't survive once subsidies stop. The first thing for anyone holding assets is always: check the official withdrawal window and don't wait until the last day. As for who will be next, no one can say for sure, but the logic is the same. $ETH $AAVEAfter $ETH spot ETFs experienced four consecutive trading days of outflows today, the ETF funds on the market have clearly weakened compared to BTC. Although the price can currently be supported by spot, on-chain buying, staking, and high-beta rotation factors, it must be admitted that the drag from ETFs will make ETH's upward movement more dependent on other funds. From Ajian's perspective, the current buying momentum is somewhat fragile. I will be watching for when ETFs resume net inflows, which may be more important than short-term target prices $PONS suddenly plunged, with volatility maxed out!📉 It once dropped to 0.4177 when I first checked the market, now it has rebounded to around 0.435, with a 24-hour decline of about 15%. This round of sell-off is partly due to the US adding only 29,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, causing BTC to spike then fall back, and overall risk appetite to cool significantly; on the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated, further hitting market sentiment. Regarding PONS fundamentals, founder Ozzy announced the launch of V3, upgrading the on-chain fee mechanism; the market is also watching its revenue performance and valuation potential. However, short-term funds have clearly chosen to take profits first. Technically, the key level to watch is 0.4177: Holding above and quickly recovering may indicate that buying support is coming in; If it continues to break below, more time will be needed to digest the selling pressure. It is currently not suitable to blindly short or rush to bottom-fish; wait for the price to stabilize first. Do you still hold $PONS? Have you bottom-fished or are you stuck?👇 #USSeptemberJobsOnly29K #PONS #BTC #CryptoMarketBTC dropped from 87239 to 84542, falling nearly 3 points On the surface, it looks like the price is weakening, but what I find interesting now is not the drop itself, but how the positions are changing The 1-hour MACD shows a death cross, with the green bars expanding again; the 4-hour DIF is also starting to turn down, indicating short-term momentum is indeed cooling. The daily structure hasn't broken, so I prefer to see this as a short-term cooldown rather than a trend reversal Looking at the contracts: open interest dropped from around 30,300 to 28,700, positions are withdrawing; the long-short account ratio rose from 0.97 to 1.29, and the funding rate is still close to zero Currently, it looks more like existing positions are exiting, and short covering might also be involved, not just new shorts pushing down. Active selling slightly dominates, but there is no obvious panic volume So I only watch two levels: Around 85000 to regain and hold, then short-term strength has a chance If it breaks 83900-84000, then watch 83500, below that 83300 84500 is right in the middle, so I'm not in a hurry to guess. I want to wait for 83900 to be truly tested to see if there is capital support. Whether it can hold is more important than the rise or fall of this single candle now Are you more focused on reclaiming 85000 now, or on whether 83900 can hold? #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张,G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 #非农降温难压美债收益率,长期利率压力仍在 $BTC Personal review, not investment adviceBitcoin, $BTC surged to around $87,000 but failed to hold, and is now fluctuating around $84,000. Technically, there is clear short-term pressure; whether it can hold near $84,000 is critical. If it can climb back above $86,000–$87,000, market sentiment will strengthen further. Currently, I tend to view this as a normal consolidation after a rally, and it’s too early to simply conclude the trend has ended. ETH $ETH is relatively more stable compared to Bitcoin, with the key focus still on the $2,600–$2,700 range. As long as support near $2,600 is not clearly broken, the overall structure remains normal; but to continue upward, it must break above $2,700 with increased volume. ZEC $ZEC follows a completely different rhythm, having had a significant rise earlier, so its volatility is now noticeably more intense. Around $1,300 is a level I’m watching closely; if it holds here, there is room for a rebound; if it breaks down with volume, short-term profit-taking may accelerate. The latest US employment data was weak, causing market expectations for the Fed’s future policies to shift, which provides some support for risk appetite in the crypto market. However, the biggest contradiction now is that the macro environment is somewhat favorable, but prices need to digest previous gains. BTC looks at $84,000, ETH at $2,600, and ZEC at $1,300—whether these levels hold is crucial, as they are strong supports. #非农降温难压美债收益率,长期利率压力仍在 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 🚨BTC short positions are already crowded, and the risk of a short squeeze is accumulating. The funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned negative again, with leveraged traders collectively leaning bearish and a large number of short orders clustering. In a negative funding rate environment, shorts need to pay funding costs to longs every 8 hours to maintain their positions, so holding shorts will continuously consume principal. The interesting point in the current market is this: if the price refuses to drop deeply and continues to test resistance upwards, this crowded short position will become fuel for the rally. A slight price increase will trigger short stop-losses and passive liquidations, causing a chain reaction of short squeezes that directly propels the market to surge quickly, with passive short liquidations providing upward liquidity. But it’s important to distinguish that crowded shorts ≠ guaranteed short squeeze. If the macro trend turns bearish and key support is broken decisively, the clustered shorts will evolve into a trend-following decline. Negative funding rates can persist long-term in a downtrend, so you can’t rely solely on funding rates to bet on a short squeeze. The current 84000‑83500 support is the watershed: Holding this support means the more crowded the short positions, the higher the probability of a short squeeze; Once the support is broken with volume, these shorts will benefit from the trend, and the short squeeze expectation is directly invalidated. Micro-level position data can only serve as an auxiliary signal and should be combined with spot volume and key price levels for judgment. Don’t use funding rates alone as a basis for opening positions. $BTCThe covert battle between traditional finance and compliant crypto channels has finally been fully exposed in the Federal District Court. The Independent Community Bankers of America has officially sued the OCC, directly targeting nationwide trust licenses held by institutions such as Coinbase and Circle. Among the 21 approved trust banks, 13 are crypto companies. The traditional banking industry is attempting to use litigation to cut off regulatory arbitrage opportunities for crypto institutions regarding capital and deposit insurance rules. The event risk brought by this lawsuit quickly transmits along funding channels to market preferences. Nationwide trust licenses were previously seen as the most efficient entry path for institutional custody and stablecoin clearing, but now the judicial dispute adds institutional resistance. In an environment where macro liquidity is already tight, the legal uncertainty of compliant channels directly suppresses the entry slope of allocation funds, and some long-term institutional positions have begun to pause and observe, with a corresponding slowdown in willingness to support spot depth. Before the showdown of #美社区银行协会起诉occ加密银行牌照 lands, the market’s valuation premium for compliant channels faces recalibration. The key going forward is whether the district court will issue restrictive rulings or whether regulators will preemptively raise the entry threshold for crypto trusts. Every subtle ruling in court will directly determine the friction cost for large off-exchange capital entering the market. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出,资金热度降温 #US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2% Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise: Rate Cut Narrative Heats Up, But Don't Ignore Recession Pricing US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 85,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the expected 4.1%. More importantly, July and August combined were revised down by 60,000, with July turning from positive to negative. Hourly wages rose only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, indicating synchronized cooling in employment and wages, clearly signaling a weakening labor market. For OKX traders, the short-term logic is that rate cut expectations are rising, and the liquidity narrative is bullish for risk assets, with BTC, ETH, and others potentially gaining sentiment support. But don't look at only one side: continued deterioration in employment will also raise recession concerns, and the market may shift from "rate cut positive" to "recession negative," triggering deleveraging and intense volatility. In trading, nonfarm payrolls are a high-volatility event, with a bullish bias but difficult timing. If prices quickly surge after the data but volume shrinks, beware of profit-taking after the good news is priced in; consider taking profits in batches. If prices pull back to key support and stabilize, then observe medium-term bullish opportunities. Chasing rallies has low cost-effectiveness; prioritize position sizing and stop-loss. Core principle: macro positives reflect a liquidity narrative, not a reason to blindly chase rallies. Watch whether BTC can break and hold key resistance with volume; if it surges on low volume, better to miss out than to make a mistake. Control leverage and set stop-losses well. $BTC Placing orders after drinking, a profound lesson! The road to breaking even is full of thornsYesterday gave a sweet date, then a slap $BTC broke through 87000 to liquidate shorts, The fake breakout attracted a bunch of longs Then it reversed and smashed below 85000, trapping a bunch of longs. $ETH is the same. In contrast, $OKB has been very stable, No big fluctuations, can continue grid trading around 120. As long as BTC doesn't break 82000, the bull market remains, I'm not afraid even with a cost price of 110,000 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% Today's ETH practical ideas and specific execution analysis Special note: Today is Saturday, no market, no market!!! Figure 1 is the 1-hour level live chart. Figure 2 is the 4-hour level live chart. Starting with Figure 2, ETH has formed a new box range. The bottom price is around 2635, and the upper price is around 2742. At the 4-hour level, it basically operates within the box. There was a brief breakout at 16:00 yesterday afternoon, but after the labor data was released in the evening, the momentum was weak. Although it was positive news, it was still pushed back, indicating heavy resistance above 2742. Without CPI or this month's interest rate meeting support, this box range will continue for some time. Now about Figure 1, at the 1-hour level, over the past 4 days, it has been moving up from the bottom of the box at 2634, oscillating upward along the hourly line back and forth to the top of the box several times. Last night at the US stock market opening, it quickly returned and held at 2647 with a wick. This is the whole process. Specific execution analysis: Around 2640, since it is the lower edge of the box and effective support can be seen, operate according to the box trading method. In the scenario where labor data is still positive but the price falls, I firmly believe bottom-fishing is no problem. Positive news is positive news, just constrained by selling pressure and short-term 4H overbought-induced pullback. Bottom-fish, bottom-fish!!! Go long, go long!! However, this bottom-fishing will still be like before, with the hourly line continuing to oscillate disorderly for about 48 hours. Therefore: we need to be patient, brothers!!!Morning Market Observation: Don't blindly treat high-level oscillation as a continuation of an uptrend📉 The market has entered a high-level tug-of-war phase, with bulls and bears battling back and forth. Short-term profit-taking is continuous, and the capital is in a heavy wait-and-see mood. Never directly assume sideways consolidation is a shakeout during an uptrend. $BTC current price is 84700, slightly retreating. Supports at 84000 and 83500 look solid, but there is heavy resistance above at 86000‑87000. Multiple attempts to break through with volume have failed. High-level sideways movement can be either a continuation or a topping formation. Until volume breaks and holds above resistance, the overall trend cannot be confidently judged as bullish. Once support is broken with volume, it will trigger a large number of long stop-loss orders. $ETH current price is 2678, oscillating with the broader market. 2620 is a key support level below. Currently, buying momentum is insufficient; do not rush to go long just because of a pullback. Many pullbacks are false supports that break down immediately after being tested. $OKB is completely tied to Bitcoin's market trend and has no independent movement. Support is at 120. If the market weakens, it will passively decline along with it. The biggest risk now is subjective preset directional bias. Do not habitually think a pullback is a buying opportunity. In a choppy market, supports can be repeatedly pierced, inducing longs before dropping further. It is not recommended to position early for a low long. Prioritize waiting for a confirmed direction: either a volume breakout above resistance to chase or a valid breakdown below support to follow the trend. Range-bound grinding easily triggers stop-loss sweeps back and forth. Better to miss out than to rush into trades. Whether going long or short, always enter with a stop-loss to avoid holding losing positions. $BTC $ETH $OKB$BTC $ETH $ZEC Almost bottomed out on ZEC, but luckily held back. The market hasn't stopped falling, no upward trend; the rule is not to bottom fish or top pick, only follow the trend. Occasionally going against the trend can make a profit, but losing discipline once in the long run means starting from zero. The hardest part of trading is not watching the market, but controlling yourself; a trader's biggest opponent is human nature. ⚠️Just personal insight, not investment advice #美国9月非农仅增2.9万,失业率升至4.2% Brutal Market: Don't Use Your Salary to Stubbornly Hold Through a Downtrend Received a private message from a brother who lost three months' salary on ZEC and is still stubbornly holding, waiting for a rebound. The feeling of waking up in the middle of the night, staring at the market with sweaty palms—anyone who has been deeply trapped knows this well. Now holding ZEC short positions with a floating profit of 434%, and SNDK short positions with a floating profit of 88%, there is little euphoria, only the sober realization after the dust settles. The market doesn't fall without reason; smart money has quietly exited long ago. On the ZEC side, Grayscale's ETF recorded the largest single-day net outflow since its inception, with $30.25 million flowing out in one day. The stolen funds from the Bitget hack were laundered and transferred using ZEC's anonymity pool, and regulatory scrutiny continues to focus on coin risks. The price has been hammered down from 1698 to 1325, and the downward space has not been fully released. The US stock storage stock SNDK is also fraught with risks: the CEO cashed out a large amount, and the Chief Legal Officer sold another 600 shares on October 1, totaling over ten million in cashing out. Toshiba invested 60 billion yen to expand storage capacity, directly dragging down the entire sector. Seagate plunged 13%, Western Digital dropped 9%, supply expansion is squeezing industry profits, and internal executives are scrambling to escape, facing pressure from both sides. The negative news for both targets has fully materialized, and the trend has already emerged. Waiting to short after it breaks below 1200 is essentially catching a market that others have already eaten a big chunk of. A message to traders still holding positions stubbornly: when the trend is down, stubbornly holding is not perseverance, it only continuously amplifies your losses. The more you hold, the deeper the wound. $BTC $ZEC $SNDK #SEC crypto asset custody new rules propose easing institutional self-custody restrictions$SAND SAND has surged with a massive bullish candlestick, rising over 30% in 24 hours, with trading volume sharply expanding, igniting short-term sentiment completely. Looking at the whale sample data: 139 long positions with an average entry price of 0.06565, 83.45% are profitable, many chips have accumulated considerable floating profits, indicating profit-taking demand; 134 short positions with an average entry price of 0.07163, only 27.61% of accounts are profitable, a large portion are underwater, funding rate is negative, showing clear squeeze effects. A sharp rise does not guarantee a smooth path ahead; floating profits may escape at any time, and the cost of chasing the high is not low. $CT CT is a newly launched token. After listing, it surged from 0.3402 to 0.6365, then experienced a pullback, closing slightly up within 24 hours. Looking at the whale sample data: 53 long positions with an average entry price of 0.5321729, 96.22% are profitable, and the vast majority of long accounts are in floating profit, indicating a possibility of taking profits and exiting; 36 short positions with an average entry price of 0.5462762, exactly half of the accounts are profitable, showing a tight battle between longs and shorts. The new token lacks sufficient historical K-line data for reference, turnover is intense, and there is obvious selling pressure above. Do not be blinded by the short-term surge story. Offensive position: 0.6120, Defensive position: 0.4860. Okay. Below is a shorter version more suitable for Chinese social media posts, retaining the "red line" theme and including recent BTC/ETH market cap information. According to current CoinMarketCap data, BTC market cap is about $1.73 trillion, ETH about $336.8 billion; numbers fluctuate in real time.� CoinMarketCap Writing 🚫 My trading red line: no contracts, no leverage. The longer I stay in the crypto market, the more I believe in one thing: Surviving is more important than making quick money. If spot prices fall, at least the assets remain; But once high-leverage trading triggers liquidation, losses can escalate quickly. Many people start like this: Small position → make a little profit → increase position → make a bit more → finally heavy position. The real danger is often not the first profit, but when you start thinking you "understand the market."⚠️ So my principle is simple: 🔴 No contracts 🔴 No leverage 🟢 Risk control 🟢 Keep the next opportunity Currently, BTC market cap is about $1.73T, ETH market cap about $336.8B, the market changes daily.📊 Even if BTC 🚀, ETH 🚀, I don’t need to break my red line just to avoid missing the market. Market opportunities will always exist, and risks will always be present. Learn to protect yourself first, then you have the next chance. What is your trading red line?👇 #交易之声 #BTC #ETH #加密The SEC proposal treats crypto custody less as a product feature than a governance function. Allowing adviser self-custody, but tying it to security controls, insurance, and independent examinations, could widen options while setting a high operational bar. The comment period will show whether those safeguards are workable in practice. #SECCryptoCustodyRules $BEAT This grid was opened with 1 dollar, and after fifty days it's now at 0.08, almost on par with lab. There must be quite a few genius traders stuck in the trap.[Today's Review: A Painful Lesson of 450,000 U, a Trade Destroyed by "Getting Overconfident"] I must write down this experience today and engrave it in my bones. Including today's chain of losses, I have accumulated a total loss of 450,000 U during this period. And this astronomical number is entirely caused by my emotional loss of control and getting overconfident. Today, I paid the most expensive tuition fee since entering the circle. This morning, SOL opened a short at 118 and rebounded all t