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The hardest part of long-termism is that it doesn't reward you early on, it only tests you $BTC $AI The logic of this stock is not about AI because what it does is utilize surplus for recombination. Right now, it's insufficient; it will only have value when AI becomes abundant in the future.$PONS is 4.37 times, almost at the bottom in DeFi. AAVE is ten times that, UNI more than nine times, and PUMP also surpasses it. But a low valuation does not mean the market is foolish; cheap usually corresponds to some risk that has yet to be disproven.
Revenue side shows improvement: $276,000 in 24 hours, an increase of 13.1%. The absolute value is not large, but the direction has turned positive. The problem lies on the issuance side: about one new coin appears every ten minutes on the domestic market, only two per hour on the foreign market, and yesterday the entire market added 7,338 new coins, which is just a fraction compared to the peak. With the supply of new assets shrinking, the foundation for fees and trading income is reduced. So the 4.37 times looks more like the market asking: how long can this revenue rebound last?
If the issuance side continues to cool, $276,000 might be the ceiling; if issuance heats up again, the current multiple will seem ridiculous. The game now is not about the discount but the turning point. The revenue rebound is just a signal flare; issuance data is the decisive factor. PONS has only shown half the cards; the other half will determine whether it is gold or a pit. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Morning assessment unchanged: $BTC and $ETH remain within a bullish framework. Although short-term fluctuations occur within a range, the main trend is upward. This recent rally resembles a recovery following a warming of macro expectations rather than a unilateral start; U.S. Treasury yields and tonight's non-farm payrolls remain overhead pressures, so key resistance levels have yet to be broken. On the funding side, ETF support for BTC is clearly stronger than for ETH, with continued strength differentiation. The current back-and-forth essentially reflects the offset between interest rate suppression and liquidity benefits. If tonight's non-farm payrolls fall below expectations, risk assets may be boosted, and BTC and ETH could follow suit with upward momentum; if they significantly exceed expectations, short-term pressure may arise. Technically, BTC has stabilized above 85,000, while ETH has repeatedly failed to surpass 2,750. Whether a volume breakout occurs after data release will determine the next directional move. #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 "Funds Changing Seats: BTC Still Has Buyers, ETH Steps Off First"
BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $3.08 billion, but the inflow slope has clearly flattened: nearly $1 billion on September 21, down to only $66.19 million on September 29. ETH is more subtle, with $851 million absorbed over 7 consecutive days, then turning to a net outflow of $2.81 million on September 29.
This is not necessarily a trend reversal, but more like a short-term divergence. Institutions are still willing to allocate BTC at low levels, while the impulse to chase highs is cooling; ETH redemptions are not large, but the direction has changed. Adding to this, 49,000 BTC leveraged positions have actively withdrawn, and CME open interest dropped 14.78% in a single day, indicating funds are contracting toward assets with higher certainty.
The next key point is the nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 PM tomorrow. ADP employment at 90,000 exceeded expectations; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations may reheat, making BTC rebounds more difficult; if nonfarm is weak, the probability of holding steady in October increases.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, so macro pressure persists. Before nonfarm, no rushing or guessing direction—wait for confirmation.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC 80000 bears are about to be released from losses
The news has been fully digested, bullish momentum is exhausted, BTC is about to test 80500
After the market surged to a high of 87374.3, it faced pressure and fell back. The positive news has been fully priced in by the market, and the bullish attack force continues to weaken.
📊 Market analysis:
1. On the daily chart, a high-level pullback structure has formed. The price has been continuously retreating from the high of 87374, currently at 84019. The short-term EMA5 moving average is turning downward, creating resistance. The price has fallen below the 5-day moving average, and the bullish trend is starting to weaken. EMA20 support is at 82575; if this is broken, the target will further look toward 80500.
2. Indicator signals: The daily KDJ shows a high-level death cross diverging downward, RSI is gradually falling from a high level, bullish enthusiasm is waning, and short-term correction space is opening.
3. Volume structure: Volume increased during the surge phase, but subsequent rebound volume continues to shrink, a typical volume-price divergence after positive news has been realized. All positive news has been digested, lacking new incremental funds to push the price to new highs.
Core judgment: The positive narrative of this round of the rally has been fully digested, and high-level selling pressure continues to release. The short-term rebound is a weak recovery during the downtrend, with heavy resistance near 85500 above. If the 82500 support line is broken, the market will further decline to test 80500.
Trading strategy: Do not chase longs at high levels; consider short positions when the rebound faces pressure; holders of long positions must set stop losses to guard against deep correction risks. 溜达鹅昨晚盯了非农数据，结果有点意外。 美国9月新增非农就业只有2.9万人。预期是9万人，前值16.2万还被下修到13.3万。两个月净下修6万人。失业率4.2%，比预期的4.1%还高。平均时薪同比3.0%，也低于预期的3.2%。 一句话：就业市场突然降温了。 数据出来后，市场第一反应是利好。10年期美债收益率下行近10个基点到5.15%。交易员开始削减美联储10月加息押注。美股期指拉升。黄金白银拉升。 BTC也冲了。最高摸到$87,237，离1月1日开盘价$87,575只差$338。 然后呢？然后被砸回来了。 现在BTC $84,109，24小时跌0.8%。从$87,237到$83,883，几个小时跌了$3,354。成交$9.42亿，放量下跌。 为什么利好不涨？这就是交易心理学里的"买预期卖事实"。 非农数据公布前，市场已经在定价"就业会降温"了。BTC从$83,000涨到$86,000，连续两天冲$87,000。花旗上调目标价到$113,000，Uptober的讨论满天飞。所有人都在等非农数据确认"美联储不用加息了"。 数据确实确认了——2.9万，远低于预期。但问题是：所有人都已经提The biggest concern for $SAND is not the price fluctuations, but that after the price moves a certain distance, participation does not keep up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.10 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends being relatively strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires confirmation from the next candlestick.
The current price is 0.0616, about 28.26% away from the 1-hour support at 0.04419, and about 19.32% away from resistance at 0.0735. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.0735 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 0.04419, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.04171. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.0735 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 0.0735 and 0.04419 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
Is this volume contraction movement a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Nonfarm payrolls are just the appetizer; CPI is the main course
Tonight at 20:30, the nonfarm payrolls will be released, and market sentiment is tense again. BTC stands above 86,000, ETH hovers around 2,724, and many are waiting for the data to provide direction.
But to be honest, the Fed no longer places as much weight on nonfarm payrolls as before. The real highlight is CPI, followed by PCE, with nonfarm payrolls at best third in importance. No matter how strong the employment data is, as long as inflation is under control, the case for rate cuts holds.
Last month, nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000, and the market only symbolically dipped before continuing to rise. The logic is simple: employment is not the main issue right now; inflation is. Once PCE came in below expectations, the market immediately rallied—that’s the data that can truly influence the Fed’s decisions.
So tonight’s nonfarm payrolls, whether they beat or miss expectations, shouldn’t be overreacted to. If it beats, the dip is a golden opportunity; if it misses, don’t chase the rally. The real direction will be set by next month’s CPI.
BTC has room around 86,000, so don’t let one nonfarm report shake your judgment. ETH is fluctuating around 2,724; I still hold my short at 2,671 but don’t expect the nonfarm to cause a big drop—waiting for CPI.
On the US stock side, long positions in Tesla and GOOGL are also being held; fundamentals are solid, and macro disturbances are short-term.
In short: nonfarm payrolls are the appetizer—don’t get full on the appetizer and lose your appetite when the main course arrives.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC daily outlook: That over-aggressive shorting at the former range high without follow-through built a lot of leverage. Bulls never really participated before - now they are, and they’re pushing with intent out of the mini range We reacted at Monday High + 50% wick fill, but not enough. Price is now likely going for the full wick. -> while i am doing this update we see longs aping in, being currently absorbed after raiding yesterdays high What I want for another short: > longs attack the wic$BTC is setting up final pump before the big wave down...
$87K broken, ~12 days of accumulation, final sweep loading at $88K-$90K
No BOTTOM until liquidity below gets swept, no sweep = no real pump...
Here's the roadmap I'm seeing right now:
-> Pump to $88K-$90K
-> Pullback below $87K
-> Distribution kicks in + dump to $75K
-> FVG fill + $61K sweep
-> The big wave up begins, target $100K $ETH has been chopping around vs $BTC for the past few weeks.
No real action here besides some intra day volatility here and there.
But the trend has been up since June. As long as BTC remains its bullish market structure, I do believe ETH will at least keep up if not outperform. Just like it has been doing.
If the market were to go risk off for whatever reason, the Daily 200MA/EMA would be a good level to watch on the ETH/BTC pair.$BTC 📈 That is exactly what we just talked about... 👀 "Otherwise failed breakout from value can trap traders and set up a move back toward dPOC and opposite side of the daily range." We saw two attempts to break above session value, both with intent: new longs were opening into the move. Both attempts failed, leaving those buyers trapped near the highs. That failure confirmed an entry targeting dPOC, with dVAL as a potential next target, as explained in the previous post. I'm in a fully securWeak employment was already priced in early, and the risk is hidden in the positions
Nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, yet BTC did not immediately take off. It's not that the positive news failed, but more likely that "weak employment equals reduced tightening pressure" has already been priced in by the market.
What should be watched now are the positions: the perpetual annualized funding rate has risen to about 10%, and open interest contracts have returned to about 653,000 BTC. Weak data gives bulls a reason, but crowded leverage compresses the margin for error.
If the price continues to hold above 86,000 and slowly digests the high funding rate, the trend remains strong; if the funding rate does not drop and the price first falls back to the post-data release consolidation zone, a normal pullback could also turn into a deleveraging by the bulls. $BTC#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT
Senate 56 pages, House 114 pages, the two crypto tax bills now need to be merged into one.
▪️ House version H.R.10357 was released on 9/16, 114 pages, has passed the fundraising committee
▪️ Senate version is this ADAPT, introduced on 9/30, 56 pages, just started
▪️ Both have the same effective date, applicable after December 31, 2026
The disagreement is not about whether crypto should have tax laws, but about which of the two texts, differing in scale by a factor of two, will prevail in the end.
The heaviest issues are not the two tax exemptions, but the thresholds hidden in the definitions. The bill draws a line for "broadly traded digital assets": market cap of $500 million, plus liquidity standards. Those above the line are handled under securities rules, those below are treated differently. Receipt tokens and bridged assets each fall under their own definitions.
Outside the thresholds, there are two small points: network fees under $10 per transaction do not recognize gains or losses, but traders, market makers, and high-frequency users are excluded.
In the same text, there is another matter: the House version removed deferred taxation for miners and stakers. Rewards are counted as income in the year received, regardless of whether you have sold them.
On the day the two texts merge, which version's tone do you think will prevail?"Nonfarm Night: Don't Bet on Direction, Wait for Three Things"
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls consensus is an increase of 80,000–90,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Don't just focus on the number of jobs added; focus on three things: job numbers, unemployment rate, and hourly wages.
Scenario 1: Over 100,000 new jobs, unemployment rate does not rise, and wages are strong. Rate hike pricing reverses, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthen, while gold and long-duration assets come under pressure.
Scenario 2: 80,000–100,000 new jobs, "cooling but not crashing." The Fed continues to watch the data, likely holding steady in October; the real turning point depends on subsequent core CPI.
Scenario 3: Below 50,000 new jobs, unemployment rate breaks 4.3%. The rate hike narrative breaks down, and gold and crypto risk appetite see a decent recovery.
In the medium term, don't get led by a single nonfarm report. It's not about "hiking immediately" or "easing immediately," but "enduring high rates for a long time plus data verification." Don't pre-judge on nonfarm night; wait for the three validations; keep some position flexibility, and don't mistake short-term pulses for trend reversals.
In short: Nonfarm sets volatility, not direction; CPI sets the script.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 SanDisk jumped 60 points last night. Is it really its own negative news?
Last night's review:
① Before the non-farm payrolls, bullish at 1760, take profit at 1785, it reached that before the market opened
② When the US stock market opened, the storage sector collectively plunged, SanDisk hit a low of 1715
③ The reason was clarified: Toshiba wants to increase its mechanical hard drive market share from 10% to 30%, targeting Seagate and Western Digital. SanDisk deals with flash memory, so this impact is not much related to it; it was dragged down by sector sentiment
④ After the panic, bought near 1720, then recovered back to 1760
My view:
· The big trend is upward, I have always been mainly bullish on SanDisk
· The short-term dividing line is 1700. If it breaks below 1700 and continues down, consider stop loss in the short term, don't hold on stubbornly#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $SNDK Ethereum is pushing deeper into the intersection of blockchain, artificial intelligence and privacy. The Ethereum Foundation and Open Anonymity Project have launched zkAPI, a system designed to allow users to pay for AI models and other metered APIs without revealing their identities to the service provider. � The Block The system is already live on Ethereum mainnet. Its core technology is zero-knowledge proofs. Users deposit ETH or USDC into an Ethereum vault. Their balance is represented throuNfp trade
Took a entry before sweep as liquidity was piled up between 87.3-87.5
Cvd spot was already showing divergence vs oi going up
Data came in bad which was a little confusing but confluence
Moved sl back to the nfp highs as soon as price broke below vah
#bitcoin
Don't short here imo
Next week will get opportunity... Price is likely to go back to the highs$ZEC I'm bearish for October.
Last night crypto rallied along with the non-farm payrolls, and ZEC was pulled up a bit as well. But it didn't show an independent trend like BTC, it pulled back after the spike, dropping as low as 1305 again.
My plan:
· Short on rallies around 1390–1400
· On the downside, watch 1193 first; if it breaks effectively, look lower
· This coin moves slowly, not a matter of a day or two, better to hold longer and don't expect same-day results
The only risk to watch: if BTC and ETH launch another big rally, ZEC will be dragged up too, so don't rush to add shorts then.
Levels are as of the live broadcast on 10/2, follow the daily live streams for real-time updates. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $ZEC Is this really the top for ETH this time? Or is it just a pullback to build momentum for a push to 3000?🤔
ETH short position: topped at 2725, 50x leverage, floating profit over 35%. Clear resistance at 2750, low probability of breaking 2800 in the short term, expect a pullback first. However, support at 2700 is strong, ready to take profit and exit anytime.
SOL short position: also opened a SOL short simultaneously, 20x leverage, nearly 7% profit. When BTC pulls back, altcoins follow, the logic is sound.
LINK long position: 3x low leverage long, isolated margin, relatively resistant to drops, currently holding 6% profit, holding steady.
My view: this looks more like a consolidation within an uptrend. Clearing out weak hands to gather strength for a push to 3000. My short positions are only short-term; if the support below holds, I will close shorts and switch to longs anytime.
$ETH $SOL #BTC, ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital heat. #September non-farm payrolls announced tonight, interest rate hike expectations are the focusBTC is NOT Crashing - It's a Healthy Correction 📊
Truth:
$87,238 -> $84,115 = -3.5% only
Why it's normal:
- RSI 69 -> 59 (overbought cleared)
- Price sitting on MA20 $84,227 support
- Volume normal, no panic selling
Real crash = -10%+ with high volume
This is just profit booking before NFP data
Don't panic, DCA on support $83,918
#USNFPDataCools #BTC #Truth$BTC
Same playbook...
Leave the highs unswept, building liquidity above the highs and making most participants feel safe in shorts before pushing through.
Another sweep of the lows could come, which would likely lead to a deviation below the range lows while those short continue targeting lower prices.
Higher prices are coming sooner rather than later.Decision time for BTC.
We’ve flipped the 85K barrier. Now it’s vital that $BTC holds above it if we want to see a push into 89-90K+.
One thing I can assure you... if we lose the 84.6–85.2K region, a sweep into 80–82K would not surprise me at all.$BTC Closed all the longs from 83K; here at 86.9K. For those who didn't enter any shorts last time at 87.1K & 86K (from which we took profits at 82.6K), you can now enter new shorts at the green trendline touch or at my R3 level at 87.9K. I also took a partial entry, as R3 has not yet fully hit. Will see how things unfold once R3 is met or not. Keep it low leverage as we're targeting 79K next. Earlier, we booked partial TPs at 83,111 S/R & 82.6K P-Level because we expected a range to be formed.A major regulatory development is emerging in the United States as the Securities and Exchange Commission proposes a framework that could allow certain investment advisers and funds to self-custody crypto assets. The proposal would also allow some firms to use state trust companies as custodians, creating additional pathways for regulated investment businesses to hold digital assets. � The Block The importance of this development goes beyond custody itself. For traditional financial institutions2000U challenge to 10,000U Record📝third time
Currently the account has 3483U
240U came from other accounts as fee rebates
After posting this, I plan to withdraw 1483U and keep 2000U in the account
Recalling recent operations, trading is really mentally taxing and exhausting
Generally, I don't recommend this to most people.
The first half of September went pretty well, but in the second half I held a few positions and suffered serious profit drawdowns, so I kept trying to recover. On the last day of September, I lost another 600U. At that time, I thought I would make over 1000U in September and withdraw, but I kept grinding and lost more. Recently, I've been shorting $BTC $ETH $ZEC — these three. Today during the day, the market kept rebounding and the account drawdown went back to 2000U. Then the nonfarm payroll data came out in the evening, which was bearish, but the market kept rising and the account kept dropping. Fortunately, after the data release, the market gradually fell and I took profit on all three positions just now. I've started a cooldown period for contracts and will rest for a day! Finally, I wish everyone winning trades in contracts Huge $BTC move. $BTC pumped from $83,100 to $87,200 today liquidating $460M in less than 24 hours! But here's the important part: In my last update, I said reclaiming $85,800 would favour another $87,000 attempt. Bitcoin reclaimed it and pushed almost perfectly to $87,200, so that recovery target has now played out. Bitcoin now has roughly $5.7B liquidity below at $80,000 - $85,000 and $1.2B above between $87,000 - $89,000. This means there is now over 4x more HTF liquidity below price, so a deeLook at these two orders: SAND and TRUTH, both are short positions with full 10x leverage. The SAND position is the most fatal, opened at an average price of 0.0549, now the mark price is 0.06009. It doesn't seem to have risen much, but with 10x leverage, the return rate directly hits -93.55%, and the 1600U margin is almost wiped out. This is the terror of full margin mode, a single fluctuation not only eats up profits but also devours the principal. Many people think 10x is not high, but reckleFunding rate soared to 10%, longs are rushing ahead
BTC surged from $83,500 to $86,500 in two days, with the contract funding rate jumping from about 3% to 10%, and open interest rising from 626,000 contracts back to 653,000 contracts, an increase of about 27,000 contracts. Price and open interest rising together indicates that new positions are indeed being taken.
But there's a detail: open interest just rebounded from a 12-month low, and 653,000 contracts are still some way off the previous normal level of 750,000 contracts. The 10% funding rate looks more like a group of longs willing to pay a high price to chase the rally; sentiment is hot but it’s not yet a full-blown leverage meltdown.
The spot side is actually more worth watching: in September, spot BTC ETF net inflows were about $2.65 billion, and on the first day of October another $103 million came in; real money hasn’t left.
So the core contradiction is clear: spot is supporting the bottom, contracts are rushing ahead. If the funding rate stays high and open interest keeps surging but spot can’t keep up, when longs get crowded, the pullback will be fierce. $BTC$xALAB $ASTER Damn it! ASTER's move this time gave me goosebumps, with the big players aggressively dumping money above 0.71, clearly manipulating the market to shake out weak hands. The candlestick volume doesn't match, upper shadows keep appearing one after another, retail investors chasing highs are just handing profits to the whales. 🔥
Personally, I placed a short near 0.7116, with a stop loss at 0.728; if it breaks, I accept it, if not, I'll ride this pullback. Below, first watch 0.68, then deeper is the dense chip area around 0.66.
Don't blindly rush to go long here; the risk-reward ratio at this position isn't worth it. If you want to follow, check the token market card below for order book details, control your position size, and always use stop loss. Do you dare to follow this trade?
👇👇👇$BRETT Damn it! BRETT's shakeout this round gave me scalp tingles. At the 0.0057 level, the big players are aggressively dumping money, the candlesticks look like a waterfall, clearly trying to shake retail investors off. 😂
Looking at the chart, there's a weak support at 0.0053 below, but volume hasn't shrunk, the main force is still unloading. Don't fomo bottom buy, the no-loss strategy here is: short near 0.0057 on the rebound, stop loss at 0.0061, take profit around 0.0048. 🐶
If you want to follow, don't rush, wait for confirmation signals before acting. What do you guys think?
👇👇👇$BTC Here's what's going on: We front ran the EQH's at 87.3k and then saw 9 bearish candles in a row on 30M. This shows that the MM's took the wheel and front ran the highs so they could take out the late longers who were chasing this pump earlier. Now, the reason why this move down is a shakeout is simply because there was no bullish action throughout the drop. Just a straight 3% drop without giving bulls any chance to take control. Obviously, this means the liquidity/imbalance hasn't piled to$TAO reignited sentiment in the AI sector today.
On the 15-minute chart, the price first dipped to 297.2 in the early session, shaking out some weak holders. Then funds reversed to push it up sharply with a deep V-shaped rally to 312.3, forcing shorts to cover. Currently, the price is consolidating around 310.8, with an intraday gain of over 3%, showing clear signs of strength.
Looking at longer timeframes, it’s nearly 5% over 7 days and about 41% over 30 days. This slope indicates a high concentration of holdings and clear signs of main force control.
Resistance is first at 311.2, then at 314.4, where previous trapped positions are dense, making chasing the rally less cost-effective. Support is at 300.2; SAR is at 308.4, and the super trend is at 306.1. The short-term bullish setup remains intact. As long as 306 holds, the trend still has momentum.
Holders can be more steady; those without positions should avoid getting caught up and wait for a pullback near 300 to observe in batches. Don’t FOMO on the rally; catching a falling knife is risky.
This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice.$SAND looks fierce after today’s big bullish candle, but the security situation deserves much more attention than the price action. 📈 Technically:
SAND pushed above the upper Bollinger Band and reached around $0.071, showing strong short-term momentum. But the $0.072 area is close to previous resistance, while the move from around $0.042 has already been very aggressive. ⚠️ The bigger issue is the security incident. On August 22, attackers exploited SAND’s cross-chain infrastructure on Base and#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
🔥 Anthropic is going public! The goal is to ring the bell before Thanksgiving, that's pretty fast.
But what does this have to do with the coins we hold? In one sentence: Giants are raising funds crazily, and the crypto space continues to be short on liquidity.
AI giants are now not only attracting money in the primary market but also raising funds in the secondary market. There is already so much hot money globally, and when these giants siphon it off, the liquidity flowing into the crypto space naturally becomes even less. Those coins purely riding the "AI concept" will only have a harder time ahead.
However, in the short term, this news can bring some emotional stimulus to the crypto AI sector, after all, the market likes to hear stories about "AI commercialization landing." But don't get carried away.
Looking back at the broader market, BTC just experienced a rally near 86,000, but ETF funds are starting to cool down, plus tonight's non-farm payroll data is looming overhead, the macro environment (US Treasury yield at 5.6%) remains tight.
In terms of operations:
Don't get led by the news, don't chase high on AI concept coins.
Hold your spot positions firmly, and be sure to control your contract trades.
Hold your USDT tight, wait until all macro risk zones are cleared and the market really dips to a bottom, then go pick up bargains.
The giants are feasting, we retail investors should first protect our principal. ⚡️
Do you think Anthropic going public will have a driving effect on the crypto AI sector? 👇#SEC Chairman Atkins says will advance clarity on on-chain fundraising rules
SEC pushed nine crypto rules in eight weeks, but only four are really usable now.
▪️ Since 8/18, SEC and CFTC have taken nine actions covering almost every step from fundraising to custody
▪️ The four currently usable ones: tokenized stock innovation exemption, passive software no-action, record-keeping FAQ, clearinghouse registration
▪️ Three still awaiting final rules, Regulation Crypto Assets comments due 10/20, final rules expected in Q1 2027
▪️ One still under White House review, RIN 3038-AF80, content not yet disclosed
The disagreement isn’t about the number of actions, but that only four of these nine are actually implementable now.
Atkins said custody rules were written before the internet. The 10/1 version offers two paths: state-chartered trust companies as default, advisor self-custody as exception, with quarterly re-certification required.
Bitwise’s Hougan calls this round "trading long-term certainty for faster rules." It’s fast, but few can really take off. Rules aren’t legislation; a new administration can overturn them.
Among these nine actions, which do you think will be implemented first? BTC shows a new key price level change: the $84,000 support has been briefly broken.
At around 01:58 on October 3rd Beijing time, two recent market queries both returned about $84,150, with an intraday low of $83,923. This is about a 0.6% drop from the previous $84,664 and about a 3.4% decline from the intraday high of $87,071.
Bearish judgment: all gains after the non-farm payrolls have been mostly retraced, indicating obvious selling pressure near $87,000; meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain high, limiting BTC's rebound. However, the market source did not provide the exchange or precise timestamp, so eight-platform synchronization confirmation is not yet complete.
Next observations:
* Whether it can quickly recover and hold above $84,000–$84,100; if so, the break may be false.
* If it continues below $84,000, the next significant support is seen at $82,500.
* It must retake $85,000–$85,700 for the short-term structure to be considered improved. $BTC Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$XRP top accounts are more bullish, but position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio is 1.36, position ratio is 0.88; the difference in the proportion of the two types of long positions has expanded by 1.12 percentage points. There are more bullish accounts, but a long position size advantage has not yet formed.$BTC 📉 $BTC is seeing sellers regain local control. Ahead of the NY Open, we got a pump outside the local range. However, the rally was showing signs of weakness near the end: 🔴 Bearish divergences in both Spot CVD and RSI indicated that the move was losing momentum. 🔴 Aggressive longs entered into strength and got trapped above us, eventually triggering a liquidation cascade as those positions were forced to close. 📊 Current Order Flow Sellers remain firmly in control for now. Volume is pus$BTC This is not looking good at all. While price is currently testing a crucial support level, spot keeps selling aggressively into the move. At the same time, open interest has started to build up significantly again, showing that a lot of excessive leverage is entering the market. Usually, when price is testing a level like this, I’d want to see buyers step in and start absorbing some of that selling pressure. But so far, that doesn’t seem to be the case. If buyers don’t step back in soon, th"The Real Market Action is in Q3: Closing in the Red in September"
September closed in the red. BTC rose about 7% monthly, marking the best September in recent years; the real breakout was in Q3: BTC rose over 40%, ETH about 70%. This rebound was not driven by sentiment alone.
ETF fund flows halted at the end of the month: On September 30, BTC saw a net outflow of $149 million, ETH $60 million, SOL $11 million; on Monday, the outflow rate slowed by about 80%, but some funds still entered. The Fear & Greed Index is 72, total market cap around $2.9–3.0 trillion, greed remains.
Ecosystem: SOL's Open USD is operational and has committed $1 billion liquidity; ETH experienced staking withdrawals due to a MetaMask incident, but no funds were lost.
Macro remains a variable. Friday's employment data is a catalyst, interest rate pressure persists. In the short term, don't just watch the open; the close reveals the real story. The hotter the market, the calmer Brother Maji becomes. The total position still reaches $153 million, but the strategy has shifted from offense to defense: taking profits at highs, reducing leverage, and raising the safety margin.
BTC cools down first. Holdings shrink from 546 to 460 coins, locking in profits on 86 coins; margin drops to 980,000, and the liquidation price retreats to 69,500. Earning a bit less in exchange for a more stable defense line.
ETH continues to carry the banner. Holding 35,000 coins at an average price of 2682, with unrealized gains of 1.495 million. The daily funding fee of 1.17 million is indeed painful, but with such substantial profits, he remains unshaken.
HYPE completes a reversal. From unrealized loss to unrealized gain, he uses the momentum to reduce positions, pushing the liquidation price down from 64 to 49, significantly releasing risk.
PUMP is still at a small loss, with little presence, so it’s skipped.
The whole operation is very clear: pull and withdraw simultaneously, secure profits first, actively reduce leverage, and lower the liquidation line. Whales are already closing nets at highs; retail investors should hold their hands tighter. The hotter the market, the more you shouldn’t impulsively catch the falling knife. Protecting profits is the way to go. $BTC $ETH $HYPE #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 A one-cent spread makes trading smooth but can't control slippage for you
At 17:40 on October 2, OKX spot $ETH had a best bid around $2750.85 and best ask around $2750.86, with an optimal quote difference of just one cent. This spread is friendly for small spot orders but doesn't mean any size can be filled at the screen price. Large market orders will consume multiple order levels consecutively, and the actual average price depends on order book depth; when the market suddenly accelerates, market makers may also cancel orders or widen quotes, so the liquidity seen moments ago can change rapidly. Limit orders can control the highest buy price or lowest sell price but may not get filled; market orders guarantee priority execution but not the final price. Long-term valuation of $ETH and order execution are two different matters—correct directional calls can still see returns reduced by slippage, fees, and chasing prices. True liquidity cannot be judged by just a snapshot of the top bid and ask for one second but requires observing multiple order levels, different time periods, and recovery ability under stress conditions.
Check the estimated average execution price before placing an order; it is closer to the real cost than just looking at the latest price. Even assets with good liquidity can suddenly thin out during stress moments. Splitting orders can reduce one-time impact but also increases the risk of price fluctuations and repeated fees. $CT is really impressive, dumped to 0.5025 and cleared the position all at once, then pulled back in 3 minutes. Looks like Dog Brother still wants to pump the price. Interesting🚨 Breaking: A 16-year-old ancient whale just liquidated everything, $450 million worth of $BTC, not a single coin left.
This guy has seen every kind of market scene. Mt.Gox hacker incident, COVID crash, LUNA zeroing out, FTX collapse, and the flash crash in October 2025 — he endured them all without moving. But today, he sold everything.
Honestly, seeing this news sent a chill down my neck. This isn’t an ordinary retail investor cutting losses; it’s an old money that has survived all cycles and witnessed the industry evolve from wilderness to institutionalization, choosing to exit completely at this point. You might say it’s just personal financial management, but someone who has held for 16 years wouldn’t sell casually due to lack of funds. Either he saw something, or simply believes this cycle has ended.
What’s more concerning is the timing. He chose to act right before the non-farm payrolls, when the market is stuck below 85,000. When a whale of this caliber moves, it’s rarely an isolated event. Ancient addresses have been waking up one after another, and now a full liquidation — the signal isn’t good.
Of course, one person selling $450 million won’t crash the market. But sentiment will be affected, especially with volume already weak. I’m not guessing if he really foresaw a crash, but I know when the most steadfast holders start running, retail investors better not rush to catch the falling knife.
$BTC is now around 84,000, resistance remains above, and the data hasn’t settled yet. At times like this, controlling your impulses is better than anything else. What do you think about this whale exit? Coincidence or a signal?If ten years ago, you took 10,000 RMB to buy BTC, it would now be worth 1.3 million RMB.
In October 2016, BTC was about a little over 4,000 RMB each, so 10,000 RMB could buy roughly 2.3 $BTC.
If you did nothing but left it there to sleep.
Today, those 2.3 BTC are worth about more than 1.3 million RMB.
What does this mean? Choice is more important than effort.
I probably entered the circle around 2017, but unfortunately never thought about hoarding BTC, liked playing with altcoins, and have been wasting time until now.
Many people are like me, not because they never bought BTC, but because they sold when it doubled, cut losses when it halved. They made money chasing altcoins, lost money chasing memes, busy for ten years, and in the end, looking back, might be worse off than doing nothing at all.
Choice determines direction, time is responsible for compounding.
Value investing, the hardest thing left is: controlling your hands. I increasingly feel like I'm not cut out to make money. The profit-loss ratio is very unreasonable. I can't hold onto profits, but I keep holding onto losses. From now on, I'll set take-profit and stop-loss points properly. I won't watch anymore. After analysis, I'll always include take-profit and stop-loss. If I lose, I'll accept it when it bounces back later. In the future, I definitely won't hold altcoins against the trend. I can hold onto Bitcoin and tech stocks a bit.CORE's plunge this time mainly hit the following pitfalls:
· Market drag: The macro positive news (non-farm payrolls below expectations) failed to support the market, BTC subsequently fell below $85,000, and CORE, as a highly volatile asset, followed the market down.
· Exchange risk warning: South Korean exchange Bithumb extended its "trading warning" to October 26-30 for reassessment, triggering panic selling among investors.
· Token unlock selling pressure: Around October 15, about 401 million CORE tokens (about 19% of total supply) will be unlocked in a concentrated manner, and the expected selling pressure from free tokens directly suppressed buying willingness.
· Technical breakdown: The 1-minute chart dropped from 0.02355 to 0.02129, a nearly 10% decline, with MA5/10/20 moving averages all breached, breaking the short-term bullish pattern.
$BTC $CORE #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $2Z 24h -18.4%, I lean bullish: focus tightly on 0.05216 and 0.03882
$2Z currently at 0.0459, 24h -18.4%, I am directly bullish at this level, no hesitation.
Market phase is offensive; the dip is where the chips are, with three reasons:
First, daily RSI at 50.6 is neutral, MACD golden cross above zero line has held for 13 days, MA7 above MA30 for 7 days, bullish alignment intact;
Second, funding rate is -0.0013258, shorts are paying, OI archived on this account +4.17%, positions are entering, not exiting;
Third, 24h volume is 7,336,271 USDT, volume ratio 4.583 showing increased volume, this bearish candle is panic selling where real chips are dumped.
Resistance above: 0.05216 (15m SAR has flipped upward)
Support below: 0.03882 (Bollinger lower band, bandwidth 58.1%)
Fear and greed index at 72, full greed, but breadth only 26/68 rising — index greed, individual fear, this divergence is a window to pick up chips.
This trade follows only one path — hold 0.03882 and look back to 0.05216, enter at current price 0.0459, cut losses if it breaks below 0.03882, if not broken, aim for 0.05216.
Follow me, don’t get lost in the next wave.
$2Z $BTC