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$ONDO
Fix: First see if it recovers the starting point or challenges the high point?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 0.4721—0.5159, with a trading volume of about 12.8 million USDT.
The morning quote was below the window starting point of 0.4967. Recovering this area first helps improve the short-term profit and loss structure, then observing the upper selling pressure is more reasonable.
I will watch whether the volume increases to break through 0.5159 and then retests and holds; if this structure appears, it will increase the judgment for continuation. The opposite risk is insufficient support and failed rebound; if it breaks below 0.4721 and the rebound cannot recover, the judgment will be downgraded. The above boundaries come from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.At nine in the evening, I originally planned to lie on the sofa and scroll through my phone for a bit before sleeping, but instead, the phone didn’t fall asleep first—I was woken up by Bitcoin.
Several people in the group asked me: With such poor US employment data, why is Bitcoin not rising but falling? I really can’t understand their logic—yes, the data is bad, and the expectation for the central bank to cut interest rates has returned, but mortgage, credit card, and corporate loan interest rates are still high. No money has entered anyone’s pocket; the whole world is waiting for a clear signal. But tonight, what we got was not a "rate cut confirmation," but gunfire again near the Strait of Hormuz. Once the oil tanker is attacked, the first reaction of funds is always to run away.
Look at this position: 84832, it has only risen by one percent in seven days, staying halfway up the mountain, and the trading volume has shrunk a bit compared to usual. This is not a crash; it means no one is willing to make the first move. I’m not saying you have to panic, I just know that betting on the data these days hasn’t yielded good results. Wait for it to land, wait for real money to land, don’t use real money to bet on rumors before it lands.
Still the same saying: don’t rush to run in a news-driven market; those who run fast are the ones hit by the car. $BTC The price charts of ETH and UNI are almost identical. Chart 1 is for ETH, and Chart 2 is for UNI.
If ETH has no movement over the weekend, obviously UNI at this position also has nothing worth holding.
After comparing the two coins, it is even easier to see that UNI is weaker than ETH. Buying UNI is not as good as buying the market.Update on the outlook for gold:
$XAU $XAUT $PAXG
4100 is the next key level.
The gold-oil ratio is currently at 45, which has already decreased. There are basically two possible paths ahead:
Either gold prices drop slightly while oil prices rise sharply; or gold prices experience a significant correction.
Only one of these two paths can be chosen.
Going forward, continue with the plan to add positions in batches and increments at 4000 and 4100.
Not sure if gold will fall to $4000, but positions at this level must be prepared in advance.
Adding positions during a sharp drop on the left side is a high-risk, high-reward approach and does not need to be fully loaded at once.
Most likely, the daily chart will form a double bottom later, and the remaining positions can be added after the second bottom.BTC full nodes take the field, but don’t hand the referee the Golden Boot just yet
In a fictional Bitcoin soccer match, A Yan made a pair of golden cleats for his full node, planning to award the “Top Scorer” after the game.
The full node, whistle in hand, walked over: “I just blocked an invalid block, so why are you counting my goals?”
A Yan scratched his head: “You’ve been busy all night and still haven’t mined any BTC?”
The node pushed the cleats away: “Verifying the match and scoring goals are two different jobs.”
Metaphor aside, the mechanism is clear: Bitcoin full nodes independently validate transactions and blocks, checking if they comply with consensus rules. Simply running a full node doesn’t automatically earn mining rewards; miners must compete to produce blocks through proof of work. Running both a node and mining equipment doesn’t mean these roles are the same.
A Yan finally understood that just because the computer is on doesn’t mean it’s mining coins for him. He put away the “Mining Boss” jersey and left the node to continue verifying.
The golden cleats weren’t wasted either—they were placed next to the whistle as a reminder: don’t count the referee’s attendance as the striker’s goals.
#BTC #Bitcoin #NodeKnowledge Which step is paused in this ETH Layer 2 “pause”?
Seeing the word "pause," don’t rush to hit the shutdown button for the entire chain.
At 23:31 Beijing time on October 2, Arbitrum officially released a security action statement: on Arbitrum One and Nova, the activation of new Stylus contracts is temporarily suspended.
You can think of it like a hot air balloon field: new balloons are temporarily grounded, but balloons already in the air are not required to land. This metaphor only explains the current activation restriction.
There are boundaries to the rules: activated Stylus contracts can run until expiration; they can be renewed before expiration, but reactivation after expiration is restricted. Deployment and execution of regular Solidity/EVM contracts are not affected by this measure.
The official statement says this move targets potential performance and denial-of-service risks caused by specialized WASM programs, and as of the announcement, no attacks capable of stealing user funds have been detected.
What’s worth following up on is the conditions and timing for reopening activation, not translating the precautionary measure as "Ethereum completely shutting down." Read the security announcement carefully, identify the target of the action first, then decide how loudly the headline should be.
#ETH #Ethereum #ArbitrumA minor fix for the BTC wallet: Don't let dust block the way
A thread caught in the zipper can make the whole jacket hard to zip. Similarly, in a BTC wallet, "small things blocking big moves" can also cause trouble.
In the early hours of October 3rd Beijing time, Lightning wallet Phoenix released Android version 2.8.4. The official notes, besides listing crash fixes and security improvements, also mention: tiny amount deposits will no longer block other deposits.
Looking into the corresponding fix, the reason is more specific: on-chain outputs below the dust threshold were previously rejected during transaction construction, which also blocked larger outputs. The new version's handling logic is to skip these tiny outputs first when organizing inputs, allowing other qualified outputs to continue participating.
It's like first moving the caught thread aside, then zipping up the zipper properly. The "skip" here only refers to input selection for this transaction, not deleting the small change on-chain, nor does it mean all small transfers are now free.
The underlying fix was completed back in September; today's progress is the wallet version release, so don't confuse the two as if the bug was just discovered today.
Looking at wallet update logs, sometimes what’s worth finding isn’t a few new buttons, but the specific cases of "there’s clearly money, so why is it stuck" finally being addressed.
#BTC #Bitcoin #LightningNetworkThe ETH name is called "Permanent," but you still have to remember to renew it.
Fictional skit: Atang chose four characters for his own .eth name: "Permanently Online." To celebrate, he ordered a cake and specifically requested that "Permanent" be decorated a bit larger, hoping it would last through several bull and bear markets.
A friend asked, "How long did you register it for?" He replied, "One year, to control the budget first." The friend looked at the cake silently for three seconds and said, "Your 'Permanent' is actually expressed in installments."
Names can be bold, but the term still depends on the record. According to the current ENS rules on the Ethereum mainnet, ordinary .eth second-level names have a registration period; you cannot automatically get lifetime usage rights just because you named it "Permanently Online." After expiration, there is a 90-day grace period for renewal during which others cannot re-register it; if you miss this window, the name may be registered by someone else.
These rules refer to the registration rights of the name, not the ETH in the wallet expiring along with the name. When managing names, remember to check the expiration date and don’t just nod in satisfaction at the avatar and spelling.
In the end, Atang changed the small text on the cake to: "The vision is long, reminders must be set." The friend was responsible for taking photos, and he was responsible for writing the renewal date into the calendar. The sense of ceremony was preserved, and "Permanent" was maintained as planned.
#ETH #Ethereum #ENSExit lesson from the ETH ecosystem: Which clock to watch for Blast withdrawals
On the evening of October 2nd Beijing time, Blast announced it will gradually cease operations. In this ETH ecosystem news, the schedule for asset withdrawal to the mainnet is worth a close read.
According to Bankless's report on the announcement that day, the team will first exit Lido-related assets, expected to take about a week, during which withdrawals will be paused. After completion, withdrawals will resume with the waiting period shortened to 24 hours.
This 24-hour period is the waiting time after resumption and should not be understood as submitting now and definitely receiving funds tomorrow. The earlier pause phase is not automatically skipped by these four words.
The regular interface withdrawal window is open until October 26th. The report relays the team's explanation: after that, assets can still be withdrawn but require direct interaction with the bridge contract on Ethereum L1, with detailed instructions to be announced separately.
My understanding is that the interface availability period and the ability to withdraw assets are two separate issues. The end of the former does not mean assets automatically become zero, and the retention of the latter does not mean the operation difficulty remains unchanged. For actual operations, always refer to the latest official announcements and instructions.
When observing a chain, besides remembering the entry story, one should also keep an exit guide. Especially, do not read "waiting period shortened" as "pause canceled."
#ETH #Ethereum #BlastBTC Read-Only Wallet: Seeing It Doesn’t Mean You Can Spend It
In the fictional gallery, Acheng stared at a painting for half an hour and solemnly declared, “I’m very familiar with this piece; I’ll take it home tomorrow.”
The curator handed over a brochure: “Being familiar with the artwork qualifies you as a guide, but moving the artwork requires additional authorization.”
Acheng protested, “I even know how many screws are next to it.”
The curator nodded, “Perfect observation skills, but ownership is a different matter.”
BTC read-only wallets can easily cause similar misunderstandings. Here, we only refer to on-chain wallets that store addresses or public keys without holding the corresponding private keys: they can view related balances and transaction records, but this observation information itself does not authorize spending. Being able to prepare a transaction does not mean you can complete the signature; signing still requires the corresponding private key.
Therefore, seeing a balance after importing an address does not mean those BTC are under your control. Even if you polish the read-only interface until it shines, it won’t automatically grant transfer permissions. These wallets are suitable for separating observation from signing, not for gaining control by just watching.
Acheng finally gave up the moving plan and went to the front desk to receive a commemorative badge for the visit.
The curator said, you can get an extra badge, but don’t take an extra painting.
#BTC #Bitcoin #WalletKnowledgeETH token camping, a roll call with three people responding
Imagine a token camping trip on Ethereum, the leader calls out names from the list: "Little Orange!" Three tents open simultaneously, and three campers raise their hands together, even their badges have the exact same abbreviation.
The leader is stunned: "I thought the same person came three times."
One of them suggests: "I'll add the character 'True' after my name." The other two immediately ask: "Can 'True True' and 'Super True' still sign up?"
The story is fictional, but the name collisions are real. ERC-20 tokens on Ethereum can share the same name and abbreviation; they are not unique IDs across the entire network. To identify a specific token, you must verify the network and contract address, and cross-check with the project's official trusted sources. You can't rely solely on familiar icons, similar names, or search rankings.
Correctly identifying the token is only the first step; it doesn't guarantee the project's safety, nor does it mean the price will rise.
The leader finally completes the list, and the three "Little Oranges" return to their tents. Just as he was about to relax, the supply officer runs over with a sleeping bag: "This one is labeled Little Orange, who exactly is it for?"
The item most over-claimed in this camping trip was the sleeping bag.
#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoJokesBTC Change: I am the owner who lost it, and I am also the finder.
A fictional on-chain lost and found office received a strange registration today: Awen is looking for a BTC, and the person responsible for keeping this money is also Awen.
After the transfer, he saw that the original transaction output was marked as "spent," and immediately prepared to print a coin search notice. The change in the wallet couldn't help but raise its hand: "Don't post my photo yet, I haven't gone far, just changed my address."
Bitcoin spends complete unspent transaction outputs. When one is used, the entire output is consumed; after deducting payment and fees, the remainder usually returns to an address controlled by oneself through a new change output. The old output showing as spent does not mean that the entire amount was given to someone else.
Awen checked the wallet records and finally recognized his own change, solemnly asking: "Does this count as not pocketing found money?"
The wallet replied: "You report the loss on one hand and keep the lost item on the other, please unify your story first."
In the end, the coin search notice was changed to a kinship notification. Awen wanted to send himself a banner, but stopped when writing "property returned to the original owner": the original owner was online the whole time, only temporarily offline in understanding.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoJokes$BNB UPDATE
BNB is currently trading around $766–$770 after facing rejection near the recent $784 high.
Price is still holding above the $760 support area, with 24H trading volume sitting around $1.5B.
Meanwhile, VanEck recently updated its proposed BNB ETF filing, adding staking as a secondary objective — another development worth keeping an eye on.
For now:
🟢 $760 = key support
🔴 $780–$784 = nearby resistance
The reaction around these levels could determine the next move.
#DailyOrbit Blast shutdown, what exactly ends on October 26?
On October 2, Blast announced a gradual shutdown, with a straightforward reason: operating costs exceed on-chain revenue, and the team sees no sustainable path forward. For on-chain users, the most important thing to read now is the asset withdrawal arrangement.
First, remember one date: October 26 is the deadline for withdrawals through the regular interface. According to the announcement, assets can still be withdrawn after that date, but it requires direct interaction with the bridge contract on the Ethereum mainnet, and the team will release operation instructions in advance. Therefore, "interface deadline" and "asset expiration" are not equivalent.
Next, the sequence: the team will first handle Lido assets, expected to take about a week, during which withdrawals will be temporarily unavailable; after completion, withdrawals will resume with a 24-hour waiting period. Seeing "24 hours," don’t misinterpret it as submitting now guarantees arrival tomorrow.
My feeling is that competition in crypto projects doesn’t only happen during token issuance and user acquisition. Whether revenue covers operations and whether the exit process is clear are also fundamental. Users with related assets should keep checking official progress and clarify migration arrangements in advance. Records can be left on-chain, but the product must also clearly explain the exit instructions.
#Crypto #Blast #Ethereum $ETH short liquidation cluster at $2,800.
Ethereum long liquidation clusters at $2,600, $2,550, and $2,350.【Old Leek Observation】 #Seize the GameFi sector rotation opportunity
$SAND Yesterday's surge may not be over yet.
Funds in GameFi are starting to spread to the second batch of established projects.
The most obvious today is $MANA .
On October 2nd, MANA's Binance spot trading volume suddenly expanded to about 146 million tokens. The day before, it was only about 6.9 million tokens. The trading volume increased by more than 20 times.
Data from CoinAnomaly even shows that MANA's trading volume at that time was about 32 times its normal level. The price also surged from around $0.089 to $0.113. This is not ordinary market fluctuation.
Even more interesting is $AXS . On October 2nd, AXS also showed significant abnormal trading volume, with Binance volume about 6 times that of the previous day. Although AXS has risen about 30% in the past month, it has not experienced such a sudden volume explosion like MANA.
After the first wave of SAND, where will the funds go next?
The signals visible now are: SAND first explodes in volume. MANA then shows extreme trading volume.
AXS is also starting to see increased fund volume. If next GALA, ENJ, AXS, MANA and these established GameFi projects continue to show:
Sudden volume expansion + price not significantly breaking away from the bottom
Then it may not be a single token rally, but the GameFi sector beginning to rotate. BTC puzzle friends, let's first unify the cover
On the weekend, Asen bought three puzzle boxes: seaside, snowy mountain, and cat. A friend went to get a glass of water and came back to find he had dumped all the pieces into one basin.
"Pick the best parts from each box, combining them will definitely be stronger," he said confidently.
Half an hour later, the cat's ears grew on the snowy mountain, the swimming ring got stuck in the cable car, and the beach was still missing half. He began to doubt the manufacturer: "Each looks good alone, why don't they fit when combined?"
The friend glanced at the BTC trading notes beside him: the buying reason came from long-term research, the operation frequency followed ultra-short-term, and the exit conditions borrowed another set of strategies. Each of the three plans had its premise, but he only copied the sentence he liked.
"Aren't you also trying to piece together three covers?"
Asen was silent for a moment and decided to put the puzzle pieces back into their original boxes first. When the friend asked what to do with the trading notes, he finally agreed to fill them in: why this trade was made, how long to observe, and to reassess when changes occur.
By evening, the cat box finally formed half a face. Asen took a photo to show off: "Finally found a consistent direction."
The friend reminded him: "That's good, now take the snowboard out of its mouth."
#BTC #CryptoDaily #TradingMindset Grass changes its data: from "data packet outsourcing" to "AI agent network"
Over the past year, the market's perception of Grass's business has had a clear ceiling: using residential IPs to crawl public web pages, packaging them into snapshots, and selling them to AI labs.
Although this business generates cash flow, under the industry consensus that "high-quality training data is about to be exhausted," the market often views it as a transitional business for a certain stage.
Yesterday, the core appeal of Grass's CEO's long post, as I understand it, is to break this ceiling expectation and create a new narrative. To understand the new route proposed by Andrej, we first need to clarify a fatal shortcoming of current large models: the model is outdated as soon as it leaves the factory.
No matter how many trillions of tokens it is fed during training, once the weights are frozen and the model is released, its understanding of the world stops at the moment training ends. When users ask about real-time news or compare the latest product prices in the chat box, the model must connect to the internet itself during the "Inference" phase to fetch the latest public web pages at that moment.
$GRASS $ETH — Buyers are defending the $2,650–$2,670 zone while ETH consolidates after its strong move. A hold keeps $2,770–$2,900 in focus. Entry: $2,670–2,690 | SL: $2,594 | TP1: $2,770 | TP2: $2,807 | TP3: $2,900. Losing $2,650 weakens the setup.$MSTU Damn it! MSTU's chart is making my blood pressure skyrocket. It's a pure capital game with no fundamental support, the manipulators are calling each other idiots inside, and the retail investors have been washed out so badly they don't even have their underwear left. 🔥
But the old hand watched all night, and there's something fishy at 44.19 — the sell orders are as thin as paper, while the buy orders below are densely packed, a typical end-of-wash accumulation tactic. Don't chase the highs, buy in batches around 44 on the pullback, set stop loss at 43.2, if it breaks, accept it, don't hold on stubbornly.
This trade is only for insiders to secretly lay low, whether you can follow depends on your speed. Control your position size, always use stop loss, this personal review is not investment advice.
👇👇👇I’d make the tone a little more market-realistic and less “just hold”, because the current backdrop is mixed: ETH is around $2.68K, while spot ETH ETFs recorded a recent outflow and Treasury yields remain elevated. The September jobs report was also weak, with payrolls +29K and unemployment at 4.2%. �#DailyOrbit Term Structure Radar
$ETH mid-term contract annualized basis is lower than both ends: near/mid/far annualized basis +5.25%/+3.7%/+4.53%. The mid-term unit time premium is lower, and cross-period trading also depends on actual bid and ask quotes; the annualized difference does not equal lockable profit.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% 📉
As soon as this data came out, the market logic flipped completely. It used to be "employment is too good, so the Fed dares not cut rates," but now it’s "employment collapsed, the Fed must act quickly to rescue."
In theory, this is a solid positive for the crypto space. Rate cut expectations instantly surged, the dollar weakened, liquidity was released, and risk assets finally get some breathing room.
But don’t pop the champagne yet. The poor data also means a "recession trade" might be coming—if the economy really hard-lands, the US stock market will likely take a hit, and the old script of BTC falling along could replay at any time.
Looking at the market, Bitcoin just went through a surge and pullback, now stubbornly holding around 85,000. Before the nonfarm data, the market was extremely tense, ETF funds were flowing out, and the NEAR hack hasn’t been fully digested yet. Now that the data is out, expect intense short-term volatility.
My advice is simple:
If you hold spot positions as a base, hold tight and don’t get shaken out by the wild spikes.
For futures traders, don’t bet on direction tonight; it’s a double-edged sword, survival is more important than anything.
Keep some USDT ready, wait for this wave of emotion to fully vent, and if a golden dip really forms, that’s when we enter to pick up discounted chips with blood on them.
The data is just the starting point; position management is key. Do you think this nonfarm data will make the Fed completely pivot? 👇$BTC $BTC $ETH This week, PCE was positive, and non-farm payrolls were also positive. Why didn't the market surge and break through, but instead started to pull back? The key lies in the long-term US Treasury yields not being suppressed. It's not that the data didn't stimulate, but the market isn't buying it. Whether the market buys it or not is one thing, but the probability of a 10 basis point rate hike has genuinely cooled down, which is positive for the future and can be said to be beneficial for October.
In terms of the trend, although the market has pulled back and is weak in the short term, it's not time to panic. It has just returned to the previous consolidation range. The major support levels below have not been broken. As Xiao Ha mentioned before, even if the market pulls back, as long as the major support below is not broken and the trend is not changed, it will only affect the short term for Duo, delaying the pace of the rally. There's no need to panic. Actually, this pullback can also help clean the base and shake off some chips.$BTC surged to touch $87,100 but faced resistance and pulled back, with the market returning to oscillate above $84,000. The impulse rally driven by the non-farm payrolls failed to smoothly evolve into a continuous one-sided advance, as prices encountered dense unlocking and profit-taking pressure when probing deeper levels.
From the price structure perspective, the $84,000 to $86,500 range accumulates about 1.39 million chips' worth of position cost, forming the core resistance zone for the current rebound. Bulls can only open up space to retest $87,000 and even higher levels if they truly hold $85,000 firmly and break above $86,500 with volume.
The key support below shifts down to the $82,000 to $83,000 area. As long as spot buying and capital flows maintain resilience in this support zone, the overall structure remains in a high-level consolidation phase. However, if this level is lost, the short-term oscillation center will further decline. The most critical observation point ahead remains the battle for the $85,000 threshold. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ETH Trend Market Daily Report
Market Analysis: Yesterday's non-farm payroll data missed expectations, leading the market to lower its high interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields drove $ETH to surge to $2702. After the positive news was priced in, there was a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact reaction, with bullish funds taking profits. The current ETH price is $2680. The daily Bollinger Bands are narrowing, MACD red bars are gradually shrinking, indicating weakening upward momentum; on the 4-hour chart, it is oscillating near the middle Bollinger Band, with intensified bulls and bears struggle, entering a consolidation phase after the non-farm payrolls.
Key Levels:
First resistance: 2702; Second resistance: 2754
Short-term support: 2650; Strong support: 2628
News: The non-farm payroll is the core macro event this week. Weak employment data is positive for risk assets, but the good news has already been priced in. Going forward, focus on U.S. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve officials' speeches. Changes in rate cut expectations remain the main mid-term theme for ETH.
Intraday Strategy: Do not chase highs; adopt a range-bound approach. Buy on dips near 2650, avoid heavy buying near the 2702 resistance level, and consider short-term profit-taking at resistance. Volatility is likely to be choppy after the non-farm payrolls, so control position size and set stop losses.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Here’s a cleaner, more natural version that keeps your trading-story style while making the numbers and flow easier to follow:
Writing
It’s time to review my recent short positions on two small-cap altcoins: $CT and $SOON.
My goal this year is simple: grow the account from 800U to 8,000U.
So far, I’m up nearly 200U.
I’m still holding my $CT short.
I initially entered around $0.61, and the price dropped right after. The position is now showing more than 131% unrealized profit.#DailyOrbit I entered the circle in 2021, so I've been through two cycles of bull and bear markets. Looking back, I really was just messing around before and never seized a big opportunity. To be honest, I was too greedy; as soon as I made money, I got cocky and had no clue what I was doing.
Last month, I actually managed to flip my position. Although my capital was small, at least I saw some hope. But you don't know what I went through—I got liquidated twice on ONE.
Thinking back, it was really stupid. At that time, I only had 300U left in my account, yet I dared to open a 150U position! Why? Because I had been right about the direction before and was way too confident. Actually, I knew in my heart it would still go up, but I just couldn't bear to cut losses and was afraid of missing out if it recovered. Greed took over completely. The result was getting liquidated outright.
The most tormenting part was the vicious cycle after liquidation. At the worst, I lost 1000U. I kept losing and refused to accept it, so I started trading frequently. The more anxious I got, the more I lost; the more I lost, the more anxious I became. I was like a person possessed.
Until I went out for a walk during the Mid-Autumn Festival and completely calmed my mindset. After coming back, I suddenly understood.
Now I don't expect to get rich overnight, and it doesn't matter that my capital is small. When trading, I just stick to the rules honestly: no getting cocky, strict stop losses, if it doesn't drop further then get out quickly, and absolutely no gambling on one-sided bets.
I'm posting this update to record it and remind myself: survive first, then think about making money. The market will always be there, but if the principal is gone, then really everything is gone. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Regarding $TRUMP, I want to first ask a somewhat uncomfortable question: Are we seeing a trend now, or a trend that has already been priced in prematurely?
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are weak, with RSI at 28 and 51 respectively. Oversold conditions can explain the demand for a rebound but cannot alone prove a trend reversal; the price stopping to make new lows is more convincing than any statement like "it can't fall further."
The current price is 2.059, about 3.93% above the 1-hour support at 1.978, and about 5.97% below the resistance at 2.182. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
The low level of $TRUMP is starting to attract attention, but cheapness alone can never replace evidence of a bottom.
My conclusion is temporarily written only as a conditional statement. My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 2.182 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 1.978, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 1.978. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 2.251 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 2.182 and 1.978 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
Do you think oversold conditions alone are enough to change the judgment?
The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the market and does not constitute investment advice. This is Coin Circle Bull speaking."The hardest part is when nothing happens"
The market probably won't have big moves these days, and some people find it boring. But investing is like this, and so is life; there will always be periods of repetition and dullness to endure. What truly tests people is not the sharp rises and falls, but this slow waiting phase.
$BTC surged near 87,000, up over 3% in a single day, looking strong. But there are still many trapped positions between 87,000 and 90,000, so breaking through directly is not easy. The non-farm payroll boost is more of a short-term stimulus; after the sentiment is realized, a pullback still needs to be guarded against. High oil prices, the Iran situation, Hormuz Strait disturbances, and the approaching U.S. election mean many variables ahead.
$ETH is much weaker. The short position at 2,671 is still held, with a slight floating loss near 2,750, but no panic. 2,800 is a key resistance; ETFs continue to flow out, the new narrative is weak, and this rebound still follows BTC.
$ZEC is another play. The privacy logic remains, but volatility is too high; short-term moves rely on capital push. It’s worth watching, but positions must be controlled.
The hardest part of the market is sometimes not the decline, but when nothing happens. Be patient and wait; opportunities are not chased but waited for.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Unlimited real trading challenge from 10u to one million, day 7
(Waiting to set up the next 100x altcoin)
I am a college student from an academic background, and I've been playing this for nearly a year. I've summarized some personal experiences, hoping to help everyone a bit. If there are mistakes, I hope experts can point them out.
1. Never short altcoins! Never short! Never short!!! Important things said three times: the account is unlimited, the drop is limited. Unless you encounter a 100x altcoin that has reached a certain price, then you can try with a small amount.
2. Follow the trend and capital flow. Whether trading altcoins or mainstream coins, always follow the trend. It's better to wait for a pullback to touch the three-phase power than to trade coins with no volume.
3. When playing altcoins, always use small capital. Never go all in. You can use high leverage, but always control your position size.
4. In the short term, I am very optimistic about $ORDI $USELESS $SOON, feeling they have the potential for 100x. 表面在反弹，底下其实还在勒紧裤腰带。 这波到底是风险偏好回来了，还是只是空头喘口气？ 昨晚那根针扎下来之后，我盯着盘面看了很久。BTC 现在挂在 84.6K 附近，85K 像个必须夺回的小山头；ETH 则在 2.68K 徘徊，昨天去摸过 2.77K 又被按了回来。热闹是热闹，可结构没跟上。 我看到的信号其实有点分裂。 - 价格在修复，但成交量没有那种"抢筹"的急迫感，更像试探性接回。 - 85K 和 2.70K 这两个位置，不是普通关口，是多空心理的止损线。站不上去，反弹就是逃命窗口；站上去，才轮到追空的人难受。 - 山寨没怎么跟，说明场内资金还在做防守，不是在扩张。 这就引出一个关键判断：市场现在交易的不是"牛回来了"，而是"杠杆能不能活过这个月"。风险管理成了主镜头。十月本来就爱出意外，昨天那种急跌，洗掉的是高倍多头，也顺手把做市商的报价拉宽了。点差一开，小币先疼，然后才轮到 ETH 和 BTC 感受到抛压。 看多路径其实不复杂：BTC 收回 85K、ETH 稳住 2.70K，空头回补会把价格推到 87K 和 2.77K 测试，情绪从"怕死"切回"怕错过"。但这条路的门槛是量能，不About $167 million worth of HYPE just entered HypeStrat's ledger.
Deep Tide TechFlow (Hyperliquid News 10/3): HypeStrat bought about 1.9 million HYPE, valued at approximately $167.2 million. After the purchase, it holds about 37 million HYPE in total, with a market value of about $3.2618 billion; additionally holding about $292.6 million in cash. A single purchase ≠ a fixed direction, market value fluctuates with the order book, treasury disclosure standards follow the original report. At the time of writing, OKX HYPE is about 88.48. Not investment advice. Gas estimation failure does not necessarily mean the network is congested; it could also be that the transaction itself will revert.
When the wallet estimates Gas, it simulates the transaction using the current state. If contract conditions are not met, authorization is insufficient, balance changes, or the call path itself will error, the estimation may fail. However, the interface often lumps all these reasons together as "unable to estimate." Blindly increasing the Gas limit cannot fix business logic issues; it only allows failed transactions to revert at a later stage. The Gas limit determines the maximum computation you are willing to provide, while the Gas price determines how much you are willing to pay per unit of resource; these two should not be confused. For $ETH users, when encountering estimation anomalies, first verify the contract address, inputs, balance, authorization, and application state before judging whether there is congestion. If the application requires disabling simulation or manually entering an extremely high limit, be even more cautious. Network fee issues and transaction validity issues appear similar but require completely different handling; identifying the cause first is essential to avoid continuing to pay for calls destined to fail.
If contract error messages are hidden by the frontend, users are more likely to mistakenly think they only need to increase the price. A reliable interface should display the failure reason and simulation path, rather than blaming all problems on the network. Before resubmitting, first confirm whether the state has already changed.I didn't make any judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn't expect it to really show respect. During the intraday bottom grinding, $CT support didn't break, buying pressure strengthened, I then advised to go long and not to move the long positions recklessly.
From 0.3767 to 0.5150, +735.33%, it was worth the wait. Took the big profit first, locked in 70% gains, kept 30% at cost price for protection, and moved the stop loss closer to the cost price.
Hold as long as the trend is intact, run when it breaks, don't fall in love with stocks. The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero.
For those who haven't gotten in yet, a word of advice: don't chase, wait for a new structure to form.
$ETH $LAB 沉寂到可怕的周末，美伊局势目前已经笼罩上更复杂的战争阴霾！ 周六一天关于美伊的消息都很少，只有一份重要消息就是周五美国副总统万斯在戴维营主持了一场未公开持续几个小时高层安全会议 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 本次会议除了万斯之外，还有国务卿卢比奥，国防部长海格塞斯，中东特使维克特夫，以及现任CIA局长，会议的核心就是下一步对伊战争以及沙特与胡赛武装冲突的安全讨论 随后白宫拒绝对此次会议进行评论，并且至今尚未正事军事任命，但是这个动作结合本周美国将要派遣第三艘航母，以及在中东部署防空设施等事件，很容易被人联想成为准备对伊朗发动袭击 本次会议基本上是集中了特朗普任期的所有高层自己人，而这几个人中，万斯与海格塞斯是谈判派，主张短期军事施压，武力威慑，但是反对长期战争。 而卢比奥，CIA局长，以及海格塞斯则属外交强硬派、质疑派与军方强硬派阵营 很显然这是一场围绕中东战争权衡利弊的讨论过程，我认为这个动作既是对伊朗的警告，也是在准备B方案，如果伊朗并未按照美国想要的结果走下去，作战方案可能会成为主要执行方案，这是最危险的信号 伊朗方面，目前相对沉默，而10月3日霍尔木兹海也并When the monitor screams, don’t rush to defibrillate—most of the time it’s just a lead disconnection, not ventricular fibrillation. The same goes for a market crash; the price is just precordial pain, while the real problem may lie in liquidity perfusion, leverage load, and emotional transmission. The biggest danger for newcomers isn’t that they can’t read the charts, but that they mistake compensatory tachycardia for health and treat a shot of adrenaline as a cardiac strengthening plan.
Newcomers should start here; essentially, this is a preoperative briefing: laying out others’ post-thoracotomy complications, misjudgments, and bleeding points under the surgical light. Asking questions is not shameful; it’s preoperative marking; not asking questions is what can cause you to get lost during surgery. Experienced surgeons share mistakes not out of charity but to reduce collective mortality; the best posts and encouragements are like postoperative follow-up points, urging you to leave scars for reference in the next surgery.
Look again at the linkage of the tokenized US stock $xAVGO; don’t just focus on the price curve. It’s like the coupling of a transplanted heart and the recipient’s circulation: US stock risk appetite is the aortic pressure, and token-side liquidity is coronary perfusion. When aortic pressure drops, coronary perfusion is insufficient, causing myocardial ischemia first; when market-making depth thins, slippage is like pericardial effusion, compressing diastolic filling, and a slight price twitch causes a sudden blood pressure drop. You think $xAVGO is falling, but actually the recipient is having a rejection reaction: funding rates, premiums and discounts, cross-market time differences, contract basis—all are immune indicators. If the parent stock price is strong but the token side is weak, that’s an anastomotic stenosis; if the parent is weak but the token side is propped up, that’s pseudo-stability maintained by medication. What really needs to be addressed is perfusion, not the numbers on the monitor.
Newbies love to treat community Q&A as intraoperative navigation and others’ strategies as universal sutures. But cardiac anatomy varies, coronary paths are abnormal, and putting someone else’s bypass route into your chest cavity might directly puncture a fatal vessel. Learn to read vital signs first, then talk about thoracotomy; establish sterile concepts first, then talk about returns. The market doesn’t need emotional defibrillation; it needs diagnosis, stratification, intervention windows, and postoperative monitoring. No stupid questions? On the operating table, silence is the biggest complication.
If you can’t even distinguish bleeding points from pseudo-slippage, any newcomer’s enthusiasm is just like zeroing the blood pressure cuff and declaring the surgery a success. #newherestarthere U.S. stock market closed on the weekend, OKX launches SECZ perpetual contract supporting 24-hour trading of RWA tokenized assets
Although the U.S. stock spot market is closed on weekends, the SECZ perpetual contract just launched yesterday on OKX still supports 24-hour trading, with funding rate caps locked at ±1.00%. I checked the contract market on the app this afternoon, and buy and sell orders kept moving. Securitize provides the tokenization infrastructure for BlackRock's BUIDL fund, and Bitwise's memo this morning also mentioned that tokenization platforms are directly supported by regulatory pilot programs, so this asset was just introduced on the exchange.
I reviewed the announcement from October 2nd: the SECZ perpetual contract defaults to charging funding every 8 hours, uses USDT as margin throughout the contract without needing traditional overseas brokers for currency exchange, and orders can be placed anytime on weekends. If the funding rate hits the upper or lower limit, the system will automatically switch to hourly settlements.
With no U.S. stock spot trading on weekends, the market relies entirely on crypto funds for matching orders, resulting in noticeably wider spreads than usual. On the major market side, OKX spot BTC is quoted at 84,646.4 USDT, the fear and greed index is 67, total contract open interest is 7.838 billion USD, and altcoin open interest ratio is 1.055. If the U.S. stock market gaps at Monday night open, prices on the exchange will be instantly aligned, and holding positions over the weekend risks losses.
I personally added the SECZ perpetual to my watchlist this afternoon to monitor order book depth during the U.S. stock market weekend closure and avoid holding overnight positions before Monday night’s open.🎰 The three wildest coins on Saturday night, each more thrilling than the last
$TRUMP 2.191, up 7.19%, the wildest policy coin tonight. After the non-farm payroll surprise, rate hike expectations dropped sharply, risk appetite soared, and 2.1 held for a week before shooting straight to 2.19. But don’t chase a coin that’s up 7%—historically, it usually gives back half the gains the next day, and with thin weekend liquidity, a small order can crash it by 3%.
$BOME 0.0010406, up 7.54%, the madman among small coins. Its market cap is just tens of millions, so a few people can pump it 7% when the market rallies. But this kind of rise has no fundamentals, purely sentiment-driven. Chasing this coin on a Saturday night might mean waking up buried on Sunday.
$BEAT 0.09091, down 1.26%, the only green one among the three. A micro-cap speculative coin with a market cap of just over 20 million, its volatility is ten times that of mainstream coins. When the market goes up and it goes down, it means funds are exiting. Don’t mistake this drop for a bottom; one day up, three days down is normal. Keep only a tiny position if you watch it.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 The three wildest coins: don’t chase TRUMP, watch BOME, avoid BEAT. Weekend sentiment-driven trading is the most intense but also the most dangerous—don’t get carried away. SUI whales are positioned 73.5% long with open interest up 9% to $164M. Spot ETFs logged 12 straight weeks of inflows, accumulating 9.3M tokens since February.
AVAX whale netflow surged 191.9% in a week as large transactions jumped.
KSM shows accumulation chatter but lacks confirmed dated data. Your read?
$AVAX $SUI $KSM Binance net inflow of 31.92 million USDT within one hour, Solana's Q3 non-voting transactions reached 14.2 billion, up 45% quarter-on-quarter, on-chain activity is recovering. ENS.eth dumped another 1097 ETH, about 3 million USD, within four hours. Whales are selling, retail investors are buying.
Just put the thermos on the windowsill, and the delivery car downstairs parked in the fire lane again, too lazy to care.
ETH current price 2680.32. RSI overbought, MACD histogram turned green, bulls clearly losing strength. On the CoinGlass liquidation map, there is a large cluster of short liquidations at 2678.9, but more long liquidations buried below 2645.9. Price is stuck in the middle; whoever breaks first will get swept.
Bias is bearish. Enter short positions in batches from 2685 to 2700, take profit first target at 2648, second target at 2620. Stop loss at 2722; if broken, admit mistake and exit. Once the long liquidations below 2645.9 are eaten up, the price will spike down quickly. Don't be greedy, take profit on time.
Shift change, going on patrol.
$ETH
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
@OKX星球 The sound of the first move falling is louder than the following nineteen. Because it determines whether your remaining time will be spent calculating or regretting.
I have sat before this chessboard for thirty years, having seen too many people holding the king's pawn but not knowing where they want to go. A novice stepping into the on-chain world is like being pushed into a chess game without an opening library—the timer is already running, but the opponent hasn't taken their seat yet. What you should do is not rush to make a move, but first see clearly whether you are playing white or black.
So the phrase "newbies don't panic"—I only accept half of it. Whether you panic or not is not the key; the key is at which move you start to panic. True grandmasters never pursue flashy moves in the opening; they pursue complete pawn structure, center control, and coordinated pieces. Translated to position management, it means not putting all your heavy pieces on the board before you understand your opponent's responses. Sacrificing the queen early looks cool, but rarely wins.
Veterans are willing to lay out their mistakes on the table; in chess, this is called reviewing the game. Everyone can remember the winning games, but the losing games are the real opening library. A player who openly shares their missed moves, mistakes, and the entire process of being counterattacked is essentially handing you a free book of variations. Following it won't necessarily guarantee a win, but at least you won't be trapped in a dead end by the tenth move. This is worth more than any brilliant move.
As for those publicly answered questions—they are not really questions, but variations not yet written into the opening book. Every new opening in chess history was initially considered a crazy move. If you ask about it, it enters the public opening library; if you keep it to yourself, it remains a hidden mine in your secret repertoire.
Now, about that on-chain asset disguised as a stock, $xIBM. The linkage between US stocks and on-chain tokens is essentially a new chess variant starting under new rules. Old opening books don't apply, and the new ones are not yet complete. Some treat it as a central pawn, some as a passing pawn, and more applaud after just two moves. In this situation, the most dangerous thing is not volatility, but thinking you understand your opponent's intentions. Experts here maintain space, keep flexibility, and control the tempo, rather than rushing to checkmate.
Now about rewards and weekly rankings. Under the rating system, winning one game scores far less than not losing for thirty consecutive games. Rewards are prepared for those willing to keep making moves, not for those who bet on a single long shot. As long as you are still sitting by the board, there is still a chance to promote; once you throw your pieces off the board, that is a true forced draw.
I have seen too many people concede before the endgame. They are not defeated by their opponent, but by the phrase in their mind: "It's too late." On the chessboard, it is never too late; it is only that you haven't calculated far enough.
Those who truly make money do not play move by move; they have already calculated the position twenty moves ahead before making a move. Every question, every answer, every review here adds one more calculation to those twenty moves.
The chessboard does not reward the smart, only those who lay open their losing games and let everyone step forward—what they hold in their hands are those twenty moves others have not yet calculated. #newherestarthereMassive Capital Migration! Institutions Neglect Ethereum, Who's Swimming Naked Amid the Leverage Storm?
1. Capital Divergence: Institutions Show Divergent Attitudes
① Bitcoin ETF inflows rebound above $100 million in a single day, quickly recovering previous losses; allocation funds buy the dip to support.
② Ethereum ETF sees nearly $120 million net outflow over three consecutive days, with a lack of incremental buying and obvious weak support.
2. Leverage and Liquidations: Ethereum Takes the Brunt
① Ethereum long liquidations total $329 million in 24 hours, aggressive forced deleveraging; crowded long positions still struggle to mount an effective rebound.
② Bitcoin leverage sentiment remains stable for now, but if it continues to be constrained by key resistance, accumulated positions may trigger short-term violent fluctuations.
3. Macro and Ecosystem: Headwinds Compound
① Rising tensions in the Middle East and high oil prices exacerbate stagflation concerns; elevated US Treasury yields continue to suppress risk assets.
② Ethereum ecosystem faces repeated pressure: validator exits reach yearly highs, L2 outages, and staking security incidents undermine trust. Bitcoin dominance rises to 59%, showing clear signs of capital concentration.
Key Summary:
Institutional portfolio adjustments have given the answer—capital is converging on Bitcoin. Ethereum suffers from outflows, ecosystem pains, and liquidation triple hits. Geopolitical and stagflation shadows remain, making the market fragile and discouraging one-sided bets; maintain light positions to weather the liquidity drought and plan a counterattack once Bitcoin stabilizes.
$BTC $ETH Idle funds have started buying HYPE
There is solid good news for HYPE this round. Starting from October 3rd, 90% of the yield generated by stablecoins lying idle on the platform will be allocated to the protocol, used to buy HYPE on the market and then burned. Based on the current interest rates, this amounts to about $250 million annually. Where does this money come from? It comes from users' stablecoins deposited on the platform, which earn interest while idle, and now the majority of that interest is converted into buying pressure for HYPE.
The more funds deposited, the stronger the buying pressure, and the higher the burn volume. Previously, buybacks relied entirely on fees; the aid fund has bought back 47 million $HYPE tokens, accounting for 4.7% of the total supply, which is a significant burn.
Now, buybacks have shifted from a one-legged approach to a two-legged one. Even if trading volume drops someday, deposit yields will still support it. For token holders, the supply shrinking is no longer just a promise but backed by two streams of real cash flow.
Of course, no matter how good the story sounds, the final verdict depends on the data: in the first few weeks of the mechanism running, we need to watch whether the on-chain burn volume lives up to the annualized expectations. Just keep an eye on it.Press your ear against the load-bearing column and listen—you can hear the subtle cracking sounds of steel reinforcement rusting and expanding inside the concrete. This was my physiological reaction the first time I looked at the $xCRCL US stock linked market. It’s not the price falling; it’s the structure creaking. Anyone who has worked on super high-rise projects knows the first thing to fail is never the curtain wall, but the weak layer between the foundation and the piles. Stop-loss strategy? That’s a temporary bracing, it can save your life but can’t support a whole building. The real question is: have you sized your position according to the foundation’s bearing capacity, or are you just building up based on the rendering’s appearance?
I’ve reviewed too many blueprints. The whitepapers are flashier than Zaha Hadid’s designs, each cross-section prettier than the last, but when you open the reinforcement drawings, all beam-column joints are hinged; not a single rigid connection can be made. The cause of death for most position management schemes is the same—not that the strategy is wrong, but the underlying load-bearing system was never designed. Using stop-loss as a shear wall, adding positions as if topping off and adding a roof—watching the building grow taller, but each added floor exceeds the allowable settlement of the foundation. Liquidation is not a black swan; it’s a structural mechanics inevitability long calculated.
Traders’ experience sharing, to me, is a construction log. The real value isn’t "how many times I multiplied my profit," but "which layer’s pour I left a construction joint on, why I left it, and whether it leaked later." The biggest loss is never the worst one, but the structural defect exposed then left unrepaired. The best trade isn’t the highest return, but the design version with the most structural redundancy. Blueprints can lie, construction quality cannot. You watch the facade every day; I watch reinforcement ratios and anchorage lengths.
As for the linkage between US stock targets and on-chain assets, it’s like two adjacent buildings sharing the same underground diaphragm wall. One is dewatering, so the settlement monitoring points of the other will inevitably move. The so-called "decoupling" exists only in the rendering’s explanation; physically, they share the same aquifer. Using $xCRCL as a linked target is essentially hanging a curtain wall on a building whose pile foundation hasn’t passed inspection—looks finished, but the acceptance report can’t be signed. True long-term scalability depends on whether it can withstand the load combinations three years from now, not today’s wind load on the market.
I worked on a project where the client demanded zero level in three months. I said okay, but the cost was adding three settlement joints. They chose the cheaper option. Three years later, cracks climbed from the basement to the eighteenth floor; the rework cost was three times the original. The lesson in this industry is always one word: slow. But no one wants to hear it because it doesn’t generate cash flow.
Every trade is a structural selection. What you choose is not the direction, but the system. #okxtradervoicesIn ten years, October has only fallen three times.
Once this data is presented, the circle of friends has already started shouting about a bull market return.
I'll put it this way first: historical patterns are just for reference, don't take them as gospel.
From 2013 to now, in more than ten Octobers, it fell three times, which does look good.
But from another perspective, the sample size is so small that any black swan event can disrupt this pattern.
What really matters is not the month, but whether money has truly flowed in during this month.
CNBC says there are already signs, I believe half of it.
Sentiment has risen, but the market hasn't given a definitive signal yet.
Right now, I'm focusing on one thing: whether the volume keeps up.
If it does, the October story holds. If not, it's just another bull market talked about in words.
Wait for the first decent bullish candlestick to stabilize before discussing anything else.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 $BTC 费率转负，说白了就是多头连利息都不愿付了。看着吓人，但我把 OKX 上 BTC 永续费率转负的 15 次全扒了一遍，发现根本不是一回事。 先说结论：单次转负别慌，连续转负才要小心。 数据摆这：15 次有效样本，转负后 7 天，6 涨 9 跌，中位数 -1.84%。整体偏弱，但 6 次涨也不是小数，这东西当不了抄底信号。 有意思的是分层。把 15 次按“前后 3 天内还有没有转负”拆开，两边完全是两个故事。 连续转负 9 次：8 次跌，只有 1 次涨，中位数 -2.56%。空头是真不愿接，多头也是真没力气，动能衰竭实锤了。 单次转负 6 次：5 次涨，1 次跌，中位数 +1.61%。孤立的一次转负，更像是洗盘，吓一吓就过去了。 8 月 18 日那次最离谱，转负后 7 天涨了 13.79%。讲真，刚看到这个数我也愣了。但别被它带偏，它恰恰是单次转负里的，单次本来就不准。拿它当抄底依据的，先看看另外 5 次再说。 下次再看到转负，怎么看？我给自己定了个框架，你们也可以照着用。 看次数。这是 3 天内的第几次？连着第 2 次以上，往后 7 天 8/9 是跌的，偏空；就这一次，先别急，5/6 是Brothers, look at the market. After the non-farm payrolls last night, BTC surged to 87,239, then fell all the way back to 84,830, down 0.54% in 24 hours. This roller coaster taught a lesson to both the bulls chasing highs and the bears chasing shorts. From a technical perspective, bulls and bears are at a stalemate. The 1-hour MACD shows a golden cross below the zero line, with an energy bar at 78.6, indicating that the short-term bearish momentum from the recent dump has exhausted, and there is capital supporting the price. But the SuperTrend at 85,421 is pressing overhead, and the price is trading below it, so the short-term remains under pressure. The Bollinger middle band around 84,551 is currently the dividing line between bulls and bears. RSI6 has surged to 69.85, showing the short-term rebound is a bit overheated, so chasing longs risks being hit by a pullback. On the macro side, the cooling non-farm data lowered the probability of a rate hike in October, but long-term US Treasury yields remain above 5.3%, exerting pressure. Under this macro suppression, BTC finds it hard to make a sharp one-sided rally. For operations, Lao Mo gives straightforward advice: For those with positions, set stop loss below 83,800 and hold steady to watch 85,400. For those without positions, don’t heavily bet at the indecisive 84,800 level. Either wait for a pullback to 84,000-84,300 to stabilize and buy with stop loss at 83,500; or wait for a volume breakout above 85,500 to chase from the right side. In this low-volume tug-of-war, controlling your hands is better than anything. Before the direction emerges, preserving capital is the priority. What do you think about this tug-of-war? Let’s chat in the comments. If you think Lao Mo’s analysis makes sense, give a like and follow; I’ll alert you first at key levels. $BTC $ET【On-Chain Trading Update｜PONS】
Monitored address 0xbe10 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $0.42
▪ Transaction amount this time: $37,332.96
▪ Leverage: 3x
Note: This address has earned over $1,374,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +88.72% In the market over the past two days, I actually find it more worthwhile to study than just pure sharp rises and falls. In September, the US nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and employment clearly cooled down; meanwhile, spot ETF funds for $BTC and $ETH have diverged, the US-Iran situation remains tense, and the G7 announced coordinated releases of about 100 million barrels of oil and refined oil reserves. Looking at these three pieces of news together, they actually point to the same issue: global capital is re-pricing growth, inflation, and risk. First, about nonfarm payrolls. Weakening employment means the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates may ease, which theoretically benefits risk assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. But the problem is that economic slowdown does not immediately mean liquidity will ease. If energy prices remain high, inflationary pressure will be hard to dissipate, and the market may even face both growth slowdown and constrained monetary policy simultaneously. So what really matters next is not how bad the nonfarm payrolls are, but whether US Treasury yields, the dollar, and inflation expectations can fall in sync. Next, looking at ETFs. On September 30, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $149 million, ETH a net outflow of about $59.6 million, but on October 1, BTC already recovered a net inflow of about $103 million, while ETH still had a net outflow of about $55.4 million. This detail is very important! Institutional funds are not simply collectively withdrawing but showing phased diversion. If this divergence continues, $BTC may be easier to get funding support than highly volatile altcoins, but single-day ETF data is not enough to confirm a long-term trend. On the chart, $BTC is currently at 846