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Nearly $1.2 billion liquidated in two days! Institutions are doing two major things
The 15-minute candlestick is almost flat, but if you only look at candlesticks, you'll miss the real signals from these two days.
On nonfarm payroll night, $BTC plunged from 87,239 to 83,826, with nearly $600 million liquidated across the network, including $204 million in BTC liquidations, with shorts accounting for $128 million — a two-way shakeout of first squeezing shorts, then killing longs. Today's data further expanded: $582 million liquidated in 24 hours across the network, $328 million in long liquidations, $254 million in short liquidations, and 110,846 people liquidated. Nearly $1.2 billion liquidated in total over two days.
But on the other side of liquidations, institutions are doing two things.
First: The SEC proposed a new crypto custody framework. It plans to allow investment advisors and regulated funds to "self-custody" crypto assets under certain conditions, including state-level trust companies as qualified custodians. Hedge funds will be able to hold BTC directly in the future, not just gain exposure through ETFs. The proposal is now in a 60-day public comment period.
Second: BlackRock withdrew $196 million worth of BTC this morning. IBIT withdrew 2,309.6 BTC from Coinbase Prime and transferred them to cold storage. Moving coins to cold storage means long-term holding, not short-term trading.
Looking at these two things together: liquidation data shows short-term leverage has been cleaned out, and after clearing both longs and shorts, the market returns to equilibrium. Meanwhile, the SEC is paving the way and institutions are accumulating coins, indicating a change in the underlying structure.
After the leverage tide recedes, chips are shifting to long-term holders.
$CT $SNDK Brothers, I really have to admit this market.
For a whole week, it’s been chopping back and forth around 85,000, with both bulls and bears worn out. Yesterday it surged to 87,239, just a breath away from 90,000, then in the evening it performed a high-altitude dive, crashing back down to 84,583. I believe many were staring at the candlestick last night, their mindset bouncing between "It’s breaking out" and "It’s over."
But let me tell you, when I saw that wick last night, I actually felt a bit more at ease.
Why? Because the 85,000 to 85,500 range has been stacked with a huge sell wall since September 24. Glassnode has been watching this level for almost a week, and every time the price tried to push up, it got pushed back. Then yesterday, the buyers just ate through that wall. Sell orders on the wall were either canceled or filled, and the pressure instantly vanished. What you thought was a dive might actually be a pullback confirmation after clearing the obstacle.
So is this wave the end of the bull market or just a buildup? My judgment is clear: as long as the 80,000 level holds, the market is far from over.
First, looking at the macro picture. September’s nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, unemployment rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and July and August employment data were revised down by 60,000 combined. What does this mean? The probability of a Fed rate hike in October dropped from 36% a week ago to about 15%. You can see the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high that day—risk capital is starving for the "easing rate hike pressure" narrative.
But here’s a pitfall I need to clarify. The nonfarm disappointment benefits the "no rate hike" expectation, but the 10-year Treasury yield was still hanging at 5.29%, energy prices remain high, and inflation expectations haven’t dropped at all. In short, the Fed might hold rates steady in October, but the Damocles sword of a December hike still hangs over the market. The current game is "pause in October, reassess in December," not a full shift to easing. So don’t get carried away leveraging up just because of one nonfarm report; this macro sentiment support has an expiration date.
Now looking at the capital flow, this is what really makes me cautious. $BTC spot ETFs had nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling $3.1 billion, then on September 30 it abruptly stopped with a single-day net outflow of $149 million; $ETH also saw $59.6 million outflow. On September 21, there was still a $1 billion net inflow in one day, but by the 28th it shrank to $24 million. The institutional buying rhythm was clearly interrupted, which is the biggest short-term pressure.
But on the other hand, one outflow doesn’t mean a trend reversal. As long as funds return over several trading days, this is just normal cooling before the holiday.
Technically, Bitget Wallet’s immediate support range is $81,500 to $83,000, with $77,200 below as the "average holding cost of active investors" as a safety net. PlanB puts it more bluntly—hold above $80,500, and only then does October have a shot at $100,000. So brothers, 80,000 is not just a psychological level thrown around; it’s a real defense line resonating with on-chain cost structure and order book depth.
As for $ETH, there’s not much to say—chopping around 2,700, with a sell wall near $2,709, support between $2,668 and $2,636, and only above 2,700 can you see room to 3,000. ETH’s current state is to follow the rise but not the fall, lacking independent catalysts, needing time to digest after a 57% gain in Q3. Breaking through 2,784 is the real key to opening the upside.
Regarding $ZEC, these whales are ruthless. From 480 to 1,698, a 253% increase, then a 21% pullback to 1,333, with 1.81 million long contracts liquidated in 4 hours. Grayscale’s ZCSH saw a single-day outflow of $30.25 million, plus North Korean hackers were exposed transferring 2,746 $ZEC to privacy pools, which definitely pressured sentiment. But RSI is only 50.2, ADX still at 52, and the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA—technicals tell you the trend structure is intact; this looks more like a violent shakeout than a market end. As long as 1,233 holds, reclaiming 1,410 later signals a rebound. But the whales’ tactics are to sweep back and forth, stabbing wicks up and down, basically shaking out those chasing highs and selling lows.
So my stance is clear:
Hold 80,000, and after the holiday I’m betting on 90,000 as the first hurdle, then 100,000 as the starting point. Lose 80,000, don’t be stubborn—stop loss is more important than faith.
At this point, don’t rush to guess the top or bottom. Wait for post-holiday capital signals—whether ETFs can resume net inflows, whether volume can keep up. Glassnode is clear: daily turnover is only 6.4 billion, still at the lowest since ETF launch. Price is rising but volume isn’t, so the sustainability of this rebound is questionable.
My personal choice: control position size well, buy in batches near 80,000, don’t chase highs. If it breaks down, accept it, don’t hold on. The worst thing in this market isn’t wrong direction, it’s losing control of position size, then breaking mentally, cutting losses at the bottom and chasing at the top.
Brothers, where are you betting after the holiday? Let’s chat in the comments, I want to see how many are as stubborn as me defending the 80,000 line.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ 🚨 $BTC CHINESE MIDDAY SESSION — $84.7K
Bitcoin is cooling off after a sharp reaction to the latest U.S. jobs data.
🇺🇸 September NFP: 29K vs ~90K expected
📉 Unemployment climbed to 4.2%
💵 Wage growth also came in softer, strengthening expectations for a more cautious Fed stance.
$BTC briefly pushed above $87K after the release, but profit-taking quickly brought price back toward $84.7K.
📊 Levels to watch:
- 🟢 Support: $84.2K–$82.8K
- 🔵 Resistance: $85.8K–$87.5K
- 🚀 Reclaim & hold above $86K–$87.5K → $89K–$91K becomes the next zone
- 🔻 Lose $82.8K → $80K–$81K could come back into focus
The macro backdrop is liquidity-friendly, but price still needs confirmation. After the initial jobs-data spike, BTC is showing why chasing volatility can be dangerous.
⚠️ Meme sector: $PEPE and similar high-beta coins can move violently in both directions. Consider taking profits progressively into strength rather than waiting for a perfect top.
Structure first. Volume second. Price confirmation before the next move.Here’s how I’m reading the current contract capital flows: 🔴 24H Net Outflows $BTC: -$719M $ETH: -$729M Looking at the longer timeframe: $BTC 7D: -$399M $BTC 15D: -$2.156B $BTC 30D: -$3.888B $ETH 30D: -$2.355B The interesting part is the short-term flow. There can be a brief 1-hour inflow, but it turns negative again after around 2 hours. To me, that looks more like short-term rebound positioning than a clear return of sustained long exposure. 📌 My approach remains simple: I’m currently short,$AAVE/USDT 1H
This rebound has more structure than the earlier attempts.
AAVE reclaimed MA5, MA10 and MA20 after the flush to 176.35. Price is now pressing toward 181.45 resistance.
Entry: 180.30–180.80
SL: 179.50
TP1: 181.45
TP2: 182.00
TP3: 182.84
Holding 180.25 favors continuation. Falling back beneath the moving averages would weaken the recovery.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease Damn… I almost got scared out of this trade. 😂 Last night was a complete roller coaster, but the floating loss has finally flipped back into profit. The rebound looked aggressive, but $CAP still couldn’t reclaim the previous high with conviction. And now the pullback is back. 📉 The setup: $CAP dropped to 0.05907 yesterday before violently recovering to 0.08469. That spike came dangerously close to my stop, and honestly, I thought the short might be finished. But the key detail was simple: The $CT This trend, I'm directly shorting with a small position.
This kind of token needs to be shorted gradually.
The logic for shorting isn't that its business is fake, but that the business is real, yet the token doesn't get any share.
The Concrete platform has over a billion TVL and hundreds of billions in cumulative trading volume; these data are real. It's just that the protocol's earnings won't be used for buyback and burn. What you hold is a governance ticket, not a cash flow asset.
The circulating supply is also thin. It hasn't been listed long, and the price is supported by exchange listing and community sentiment. The liquidity in that pool on the BNB chain is only a few thousand dollars, with daily trading volume of tens of thousands of dollars. With such shallow depth, a few trades can pump or crash the price. Multi-chain data are inconsistent, with market cap estimates ranging from over ten million to four hundred million; the chips and liquidity are opaque.
There is also a clear unlocking and selling pressure in the future. The team and investors hold half of the total supply, locked for one year. Currently, circulation is small and the price is easy to hype; after one year, low-cost chips will flood the market, and who will absorb them is a question.
The contract is unaudited, and the team background has little solid proof. The project claims to be a Singapore DAO, but the founder's history and code security haven't been time-tested. This kind of project is most vulnerable to incidents, and if something happens, it will likely go straight to zero.
The current position is the emotional high after the exchange listing. If the hype fades and there's no fundamental support, a pullback is highly probable.
But the risks must also be stated clearly: CT has poor liquidity, shorts could also be squeezed, and sharp spikes can occur. When shorting such small-cap new tokens, keep positions light, stop losses strict, and don't treat it as value investing. This is not investment advice.$TRUMP
The project team has been quietly selling off over the past six months.
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, the team wallet transferred out 81.87 million TRUMP, entering Binance and OKX at an average price of $3.04, cashing out $249 million.
Current price is $2.06, down 2.5% intraday, and the team still holds most of the chips.
The trend is bearish; don't buy if it rebounds above $2.2, and watch for lower prices if it falls below $2.
$TRUMP The core members of the U.S. Cabinet held long closed-door consultations at Camp David to assess the follow-up strategies regarding the conflict involving Iran and the Houthi forces. Geopolitical tensions tend to trigger safe-haven speculation, but the market performance remains relatively flat.
$SOL is oscillating within a narrow range, while $HYPE and $XRP have experienced varying degrees of decline. Many compatriots tend to jump directly into trading to speculate on safe-haven moves upon seeing conflict news, which requires extra caution. Expectations are one thing, but whether funds actually enter the market should be based on market signals, not just news.
SOL attack level: 116.40, defense level: 123.00
HYPE attack level: 85.30, defense level: 91.00
XRP attack level: 1.4420, defense level: 1.5240
When trading, we must compare news with market conditions and never be reckless with position sizes. #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% "Resistance at previous high causes pullback, has $BTC's rally ended?"
Key conclusion: The non-farm payroll boost pushed BTC close to the previous high, profit-taking caused a pullback, daily candle shows a long upper shadow, which is a normal consolidation after a big rally, not a trend reversal. Mid-term rate cut expectations remain intact, short-term enters a consolidation phase to digest gains, selling pressure released but upward momentum remains.
Technical breakdown:
1. Candlestick pattern
Yesterday's non-farm stimulus drove a spike to 87238, quickly retreating after approaching the previous high at 87399, daily candle closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, concentrated profit-taking at previous high. Price retraced to around 84600, back to the previous breakout platform, a technical pullback confirmation after the rise.
2. Indicator signals
SKDJ maintains a bullish pattern after a low-level golden cross (K=45.8, D=44.2), mid-term structure intact, but K value turning and slowing, upward momentum weakening temporarily; KDJ's J value fell from overbought, in healthy recovery, no death cross formed, adjustment is relatively benign.
3. Volume characteristics
Volume shrinks synchronously during the pullback, not a volume-driven sell-off, mainly profit-taking from existing holders. The 84000 support platform below holds well, no large-scale capital exit signals.
Key price levels:
• Short-term resistance: 86000 round number (first resistance on rebound)
• Strong resistance: 87399 (previous high this round, only opening new space if volume confirms a stable break above) #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
On the night of October 2, the U.S. Department of Labor released the September nonfarm payroll report, showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the market consensus range of 84,000 to 90,000. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. Meanwhile, the combined nonfarm data for July and August was revised downward by 60,000, further confirming that the labor market is cooling faster than previously expected.
After the data release, market risk appetite quickly contracted. $BTC fell sharply from a high near $86,700, hitting a low around $84,000; $ETH also weakened in tandem, dropping from an intraday high of $2,779 to about $2,648.
Market interpretation suggests that although the weak nonfarm data reduced the implied probability of a Fed rate hike in October from 29% to 17%, investors are more concerned about the drag that weakening economic momentum will have on corporate earnings prospects and overall risk appetite. As a typical high-beta asset, crypto often faces selling pressure first amid such macroeconomic weakening signals. On the capital side, divergence also appeared: Bitcoin ETF flows showed mixed signals, while Ethereum ETFs saw a single-day net outflow exceeding $55 million, indicating some loosening of capital support.
In the short term, the crypto market is in a sensitive phase where macro data and capital sentiment intertwine, and volatility risks remain a concern. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the market's upward cycle has not fundamentally reversed. $BTC $ETH $ZEC When I first entered the circle, seeing news like "The Department of Justice investigates the Federal Reserve Chair," my first reaction was: It's over, something big is happening, quickly check if $BTC is about to crash.
But after watching the market all night, nothing happened.
Now the Department of Justice says they are no longer investigating Powell.
To be clear, this matter has never really had much to do with the crypto price.
Whether the Federal Reserve Chair changes or not, or whether there’s an investigation, it only affects the internal drama of the old dollar system.
The only thing that really impacts the crypto world is whether the market thinks this means more money will be created.
So far, it doesn’t look like it.
This kind of news is a typical "looks scary but actually useless."
The most common mistake for newcomers is treating every piece of news from Washington as a market signal.
I did the same back then, only to realize I was just scaring myself.
When you first came in, were you also fooled by these "big news" stories?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 $BTC $CT continues to look weak, and the traders who chased the highs two days ago are now sitting in uncomfortable positions. The capital data tells an interesting story: Previously, smart-money longs were around 80,000 U, with an average entry near 0.47. Now, that exposure has jumped to roughly 350,000 U — more than 4× higher. But there’s a problem. The average long price has climbed to around 0.53, while $CT is still hovering near 0.51. That means a large portion of the newly added long capital en#US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
Nonfarm payrolls are this weak, so who exactly is holding back BTC from surging?
Yesterday, the nonfarm data was released, clearly weaker than expected, signaling a cooling labor market.
According to the usual script: the worse the nonfarm data, the lower the rate hike expectations, and BTC should rise.
But this time,
BTC surged to around $87,000 after the data came out, then was pulled back to around $84,500.
Why?
Because the market's pricing power has shifted to US Treasuries.
Employment can worsen, but as long as the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5% at a high level, the market won't easily believe that "easing is coming soon." Previously, when yields rose again, BTC fell in sync.
So the key focus going forward: when will Treasury yields truly come down?
If yields continue to oscillate at high levels, $BTC will most likely keep grinding between $84,000 and $87,000;
If the 10-year Treasury yield starts to consistently fall below 5%, then the rate cut expectations brought by this weak nonfarm data might truly transmit to BTC.Last week, I shorted $ZEC and lost a month's salary; this month, I went long and lost another month's salary.
It rises whenever I short, and falls whenever I go long. Why does it have to be against me?
I really can't take it anymore, ZEC, you jerk!
Yesterday, a brother messaged me saying he lost three months' salary on ZEC and asked if he could still hold on.
I didn't dare say "it will come back up."
Because three months ago, I was the one staring at the K-line late at night, palms sweating, stubbornly holding on.
Now ZEC has dropped from 1698 to 1333, a 21% pullback, RSI is still at 50.2, and ADX has reached 52.0.
About 2700 ZEC have entered the Ironwood shield pool on-chain.
ETFs are withdrawing, on-chain funds are moving, and regulatory attention is increasing.
Some say 1233 is a key support, but ZEC previously rose from 480 to 1698, an increase of over 250%, so a 21% pullback isn't really deep.
So whether this is a normal correction or a trend change, we still have to wait and see.
Last week shorting lost a month's salary, this month going long lost another month's salary.
The market won't necessarily rebound just because you lost three months' salary.
Don't let small losses turn into big ones.
As for falling below 1200, don't chase shorts wildly; with coins like this, the harder they fall, the more likely a big bullish candle will suddenly appear.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $OKB/USDT 1H
Sellers still control the intraday structure.
Price is below MA5, MA10 and MA20, with each average sloping downward. The latest candle also broke beneath the 120.15 area.
Short entry: 120.10–120.25
SL: 120.48
TP1: 119.85
TP2: 119.65
TP3: 119.30
The bearish view weakens if OKB recovers 120.38 and holds it as support.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease 🔥NFP SHOCK — BUT BTC GOT HAMMERED
□□ September NFP:+29Kvs+90K expected
📉 Miss:61K / ~68%
👷 Unemployment:4.2%
💵 Wage growth:3.0% YoY
BTC initially ripped toward$87K🚀
Then came the rejection. 😮
Weak jobs can reduce pressure for Fed tightening, butyields, the dollar and liquiditystill matter.
🎯 $87K reclaim → $90K
⚠️ $85K loss → $83K
Was that a shakeout — or BTC warning us? 👀Rotation Variations: From Recession to Repricing
$BTC faces initial pressure, with ETF outflows reducing incremental gains. It doesn't have to lead the rally but must hold the dense chip accumulation zone; otherwise, rotation cannot be discussed. Macro weakness brings rate cut expectations but first withdraws short-term risk appetite.
$ETH is observed for support: the ecosystem and staking narratives remain. If it can show relative strength during BTC's sideways movement, the catch-up rally will be confirmed; otherwise, it's just a rebound.
$SOL still has elasticity, but high beta will backfire when volume shrinks. The rise is fast, and the pullback is also quick; position sizing determines the outcome before direction.
$XRP acts as a sentiment thermometer: if this established asset expands volume from a niche area, it indicates capital willingness to test the outer circle, and rotation spreads from the core.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 with a 4.2% unemployment rate, giving easing expectations; simultaneous outflows from BTC and ETH spot ETFs remind that heat is cooling down. Don't mistake macro tailwinds as entry signals; first watch if capital flows back. Rotation is not broad-based gains but switches between "defense—probing—diffusion." Rhythm remains more important than direction.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Divide the net ETF inflows of ETH and BTC over the last 60 common trading days by their respective market capitalizations to obtain RFD60. Comparing this with the ETH/BTC exchange rate, the two rhythms indeed align quite well:
After RFD60 crosses above the zero line, ETH/BTC usually enters a recovery phase; after RFD60 falls back below zero, ETH/BTC generally weakens.
As of September 30, RFD20 is +0.084 percentage points, having rapidly narrowed and approached neutrality; 利弗莫尔在《股票作手回忆录》写下：永远不要把全部资本押在一个想法上，子弹打光，你就连瞄准的资格都没有。 保罗·都铎·琼斯也说：状态不好的时候，一定要缩小仓位，不要在逆境下加大赌注。无数交易前辈用爆仓的代价证明：打败交易者的往往不是行情判断，而是失控的仓位。 在合约市场，今日分享曾经的币圈神话Bit浪浪的三三制仓位，是一套普通人可以直接落地的生存标准。 把总资金平分为三份，每一次交易，只动用其中一份作为交易仓。BTC杠杆控制在10倍以内，山寨币种杠杆不超过5倍。 单子亏损，就补齐这份交易仓的本金，维持固定的交易规模；单子盈利，利润直接提取出账户。只有整体本金实现翻倍之后，才允许上调单份仓位。 这套规则的内核很简单：就算这一份仓位彻底爆掉，最多损失总资金三分之一，不会直接归零。不会因为连续盈利就冲动加仓，也不会因为连续亏损，急于回本而重仓博弈。 巴菲特曾警示：杠杆会让人上瘾，再大的盈利，乘以零，一切都会化为乌有。很多人钻研K线、研究指标，却忽略仓位管理。看懂行情只是能力，管住仓位才是保命。 机会永远会反复出现，但本金只有一次。 再好的技术，没有严格的仓位规则兜底，终究只是一场赌博。恪🟣$ZEC — NOW WATCH
ZEC is around $1,318, down about 5.2% in 24h and 22% below its $1,697 ATH. (OKX)
🔥 The volatility is real: a $4.51M long was liquidated around $1,288 today. (Pluang)
📊 ETF flows also turned negative:
-$30.2M → -$12.4M → -$26.9M over the last 3 reported sessions. (Farside Investors)
🎯 $1,350 → $1,400 → $1,500
⚠️ $1,300 → $1,250 → $1,200
Flush before the bounce, or ZEC heading lower? 👀84 k super important pivot if you want to see continuation higher
Below there 80 k flat becomes the target for next week
$BTC#btc #eth Why did the non-farm payroll data fall far short of expectations, yet the crypto stock market still plunged? First, the data truly lacks credibility. Second, poor employment means weak economic vitality; economic recession is scarier than interest rate hikes. Rate hikes are short-term negatives, but recession means a stock market crash. However, obviously, there are not yet enough signals of an economic recession. If AI cannot lead the economy to greatness again, then the American Dream and the economy definitely won't continue to be great. At that time, the economy will surely decline, but currently, there are no signs of that. Third, it's just the same old trick: once news breaks, whether spot or long positions, there will definitely be more buying. The manipulators won't be kind enough to carry you; they will definitely shake things up. Shaking is healthy. For now, the bullish trend remains unchanged, at least for now. BTC has strong support at 83-85. ETH 30-50 is ready to board anytime. Non-farm payrolls released, market divergence fully amplified! ZEC down 5.82%, DOGE weakened in sync, SK Hynix almost held steady with only 0.17% drop. $DOGE | 0.09249, -2.77% Sentiment-driven asset, continued decline after NFP, approaching support. Only light positions for speculation, significant risk if support breaks. $ZEC | 1292.41, -5.82% Previously strong asset releasing selling pressure, stuck near key support; if broken, downside could expand. SK HYNIX | 1372.7, -0.17% Physical chip proYesterday, I was sitting on +$480+ with $PEPE. I didn’t take the profit. Now I’m looking at -$300+ instead. 😭 Every time I check the account, the numbers seem to disappear. I kept thinking: “Maybe it goes a little higher. I’ll sell later.” But “later” turned a winning position into a painful loss. That’s the lesson. Trading isn’t only about finding the right entry — knowing when to take what the market gives you matters too. Greed can turn a good trade into a bad one very quickly. From here, I’The market is like a spring being continuously compressed; the direction is still unclear for now, but energy is steadily accumulating.
$USELESS has retraced from 0.3588 down to around 0.229, with EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 clearly showing a bearish alignment, and each rebound weaker than the last.
At the same time, the consolidation range continues to narrow, and trading volume is shrinking in sync; the market is waiting for the next directional choice.
If the current support is effectively broken, 0.20 may become the first psychological barrier below; if it fails to hold, further downward moves to seek liquidity cannot be ruled out.
On the other hand, volatility for $BTC and $ETH is rising, but no clear directional confirmation has appeared yet.
Non-farm payroll data, changes in rate cut expectations, and the continued rise in US Treasury yields are repeatedly disturbing market risk appetite.
Meanwhile, news about OpenAI’s massive financing again indicates that the AI narrative may continue to divert market funds.
So the current market looks more like a brief silence before a major move.
Before the direction is confirmed, rather than rushing to bet, it’s better to control your position size and leave yourself enough room to handle volatility.
Opportunities in the market are never lacking; what’s truly scarce is having enough capital and patience before those opportunities arise.Non-farm payrolls landed with only a 29,000 increase in September, expected around 90,000, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. Employment is cooling off, but will the Fed immediately open the floodgates to cut rates? 🤔
Don't rush. Rate cuts still depend on inflation stickiness, financial conditions, and policy signals. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the dollar hasn't weakened significantly, and the market hasn't fully bet on "weak jobs = immediate easing."
Crypto leads the cheer. $BTC reclaimed 86,000, briefly approaching 87,000 after the data; $ETH rose from 2,600 to 2,750, breaking out of the late September consolidation; $SOL bounced to 122, up 3%-4% in 24 hours, showing resilience. 😄
But the enthusiasm is limited: spot ETFs are seeing outflows, with no new incremental funds. Interest rates and the dollar continue to pressure valuations, making this more of a recovery after bad news than a bull market signal. Don't judge the whole picture by a single non-farm payroll candle.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
Last night, the nonfarm payroll data was a huge surprise, and we need to talk about it.
The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, while the market expected 85,000, nearly three times the difference. Even more striking, August's data was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and July was worse, changing from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000. These two months combined added 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, again higher than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, showing wages are also stagnating.
In short, both employment and wage data weakened, signaling a clear cooling in the labor market. Normally, this kind of data is very positive for risk assets because it significantly eases rate hike pressure. But BTC's movement is interesting: after the data release, it surged briefly but was quickly pushed back down and is now hovering around 84,600.
Why is this happening? The core reason is "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The market had already priced in the "weak nonfarm" expectation days ago, pushing BTC from 83,500 to 87,238. When the actual data came out and was indeed poor, there was no new incremental buying to support it, so early profit-takers cashed out, causing the price to fall.
From a long-term perspective, weakening employment continues to suppress rate hike expectations, so the long-term logic remains bullish.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC A brother rushed into $CORE with just 6U on launch day. At the time, the group was going crazy: “$CORE is going 100x.” “Maybe even 1,000x.” “It will crush Ethereum.” “It will surpass Bitcoin.” The hype was everywhere. He ended up with 10,000+ tokens, believing the position could completely change his life. Then reality hit. Day 2: $5 Day 3: $4 He asked the group what was happening. The group leader said: “Just a shakeout. Hold.” One month later: $1 Six months later: $0.50 One year later: $0.05 T$BTC
Life of crypto people during the seven-day holiday:
October 1: Spacing out
October 2: Self-blame
October 3: Reflection
October 4: Repentance
October 5: Review
October 6: Planning
October 7: Daydreaming
.......
October 8 (evening): Swearing#BTC is still trading below the key HTF resistance structure, and the next Higher High (HH) is NOT confirmed yet. The critical level to watch is the $80,108 Inducement (IND) level. BULLISH SCENARIO: If BTC holds above $80,108 and breaks the current resistance structure, we could see a new HH and continuation toward the ATH zone. BEARISH SCENARIO: If BTC breaks below $80,108 and gets a confirmed HTF close below the Inducement, the market structure could weaken significantly. In that case, $70K–$6Take a look at the volume profile for $SOL on the 3-day timeframe over the past two years. I can see the Point of Control (POC) at $84.7 and a High Volume Node (HVN) in the $140–$147 range.
SOL needs to build up accumulation at the HVN to continue rising; otherwise, it could face a sell-off back to the POC.ETH intraday market
After a false breakout last night, it fell back to the consolidation range and continued to fluctuate. It seems there's not much to analyze. If you really want to trade, wait to short at the upper edge of the range and go long at the lower edge. If it's neither up nor down, just rest.This round of non-farm payrolls: the first reaction was surprise, the second was shock. The rate cut trade just started, but growth concerns quickly overtook it, and after the market surged, it collectively gave back gains.
Crypto circle:
$BTC: after probing 87,000, it dropped back to 85,000, failing to hold;
$ETH: retreated from 2770 to 2700, with reduced gains;
$SOL: fell from 123.6 to 120, also pulling back in sync.
US stock circle:
MU: slid from 1108 to 1093, basically giving back gains after the non-farm report;
SNDK: continued to fall from a high level, weakness more evident.
The first buy was on rate cuts, the second sell was on growth concerns. Is the cooling employment data a positive for interest rates or a sign of economic slowdown? Funds are starting to hesitate; BTC, ETH, SOL surged then softened, MU and SNDK also showed strength then weakness. It's not that non-farm had no impact, but the market rushed in too fast, choked, and is now recalculating. Some short sellers just exited and are kicking themselves, while those chasing longs feel even worse.
Meanwhile, Strive is preparing to scoop up over 1270 BTC this week. On one hand, short-term revaluation; on the other, institutions keep accumulating. The second bite is hard to swallow, but long-term buyers haven't stopped.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC,ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat #Tensions between the US and Iran continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves he ONE 4H chart confirms a classic bear flag continuation structure following the severe sell-off from $0.0052. Immediate rejection near $0.00250 along the descending ceiling on declining corrective volume confirms complete buyer exhaustion against persistent trend pressure. The preferred strategy is to enter a Short position near $0.00250–$0.00251 with a stop-loss parameter above $0.002814, targeting the lower expansion floor at $0.001030 $ONE
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows The address with the largest unrealized profit on ETH on Hyperliquid holds 30,300 ETH long positions, with an unrealized profit of $16.52 million, an opening price of $2,134, and a return rate of 408%. The position was opened in August and held all the way until now. When it comes to bottom fishing, both courage and patience count as capital 😇
$BTC $ETHState channels are very fast, but they are better suited for repeated transactions among fixed participants.
State channels allow participants to first lock funds into an on-chain contract, then repeatedly exchange signed states off-chain, only using the mainnet when opening, disputing, or closing. They can provide fast, low-cost interactions, especially suitable for frequent payments and game operations between two or a few fixed participants. The limitations are also clear: funds need to be locked in advance, participants must keep backups of the latest state, and timely challenge if the other party submits an old state. Complex applications open to arbitrary users and contracts are difficult to fit entirely into the same channel. For $ETH, state channels are not an outdated technology completely replaced by Rollups, but a tool to solve specific interaction problems. The scaling path does not have to have a single winner; the key is to align security assumptions with use cases. Speed comes from reducing on-chain transactions, not from eliminating final settlement.
Channels also require participants to be able to come online or delegate monitoring during the dispute period; otherwise, they may miss rebutting when the other party submits an old state. Speed is built on continuously saving the latest signatures and timely responses. When participants change frequently, the costs of reopening channels, locking funds, and exiting will offset some of the performance advantages.The 500-day cycle framework has shown a notable historical pattern around Bitcoin halving cycles. In the previous cycle, the window from roughly 500 days before the halving to 500 days after covered approximately November 2022 → September 2025. During that period: 📈 $BTC moved from around $16,000 to $126,000. Looking further back, similar timing around the 2016–2017 and 2019–2021 cycles also coincided with the major portions of Bitcoin’s broader uptrends. It’s not a guarantee that history repeaWLD surged 17% today, returning to $0.57.
When emphasizing WLD repeatedly around $0.43 earlier, the core logic was that this level was already low enough, and World’s real product expansion was just beginning.
Recently, World Money has officially launched in over 150 countries, integrating stablecoin payments, trading, earnings, and World ID all into one app.
Now the price has risen from $0.43 to $0.57, increasing by more than 30% in a short time.
More importantly, $0.57 has once again hit theNonfarm payrolls released, September added only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Employment is indeed cooling down, but does this mean the Fed will immediately open the rate cut channel? 🤔
Not necessarily. Rate cut trades still depend on inflation stickiness, financial conditions, and policy wording. Currently, US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar hasn't weakened significantly, and the market hasn't fully bet on "weak jobs = immediate easing." The first wave of manual entries is complete. Current exposure: 1/8 of the total planned position. There are still two more waves planned. 🔹 Wave 2 If the market remains at current levels or improves, the second wave could be executed Sunday–Monday, with the position size doubling. 🔹 Wave 3 After Wave 2, if BTC continues showing a relatively strong and steady uptrend for roughly one week, the third wave could be executed, doubling the position again. For now, the recent correction has shown reNonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, versus an expected 84,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, and wages also declining. Normally, this would be bullish, cooling rate hike expectations and pushing risk assets higher. However, ironically, it was the long positions that got liquidated.
There are three layers to this.
First layer: buying the expectation, selling the fact. Before the data release, the market had already priced in weak nonfarm payrolls and no rate hike in October.I’ll admit it — the volume got a little crazy last night, and Ethereum eventually dropped in waterfall fashion. 😭 Yesterday afternoon, ETH ripped higher and wiped out a wave of shorts. Then came the night session… another sharp move down, taking out both sides of the market. Longs got hit. Shorts got shaken. Nobody got an easy ride. ☠️ I kept my existing short position, but I didn’t dare add another short around $2,750. In the end, ETH dropped nearly $40 in that waterfall move. Not exactly a maDamn, just saw the data on TRUMP, it's fucking disgusting. The team wallet transferred 81.87 million TRUMP tokens in 8 months, average price 3.04, directly dumping them on Binance and OKX, cashing out 249 million USD. This is outright robbery.
What's even more outrageous is that out of a total of 800 million tokens, the team holds 80%, and retail investors only 20%. They still hold 718 million tokens, worth 1.49 billion.
The Trump family's greed is uglier than a manipulative whale. Retail investors are still shouting MAGA, while they have already cashed out over 200 million USD. You think it's faith, but they see you as an ATM.
Don't touch TRUMP, this kind of coin is just giving them money. No matter how much the market rises, I won't buy a single share of this.Nonfarm payrolls across the board missed expectations, but Bitcoin rallied against the trend: rate cut trades reignited
The US September nonfarm payroll data delivered a "broad miss" — only 29,000 new jobs added, less than a third of the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3%, and the private sector was also weak. The cooling signals in the labor market are very clear now.
Why did Bitcoin rise despite weak employment data? 🇺🇸 On October 2nd yesterday, the Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) officially sued the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), challenging the OCC's legal authority to grant national trust bank charters to crypto companies.
Prior to this, the OCC had approved or conditionally approved trust bank charters for crypto companies including Coinbase and Circle.
In fact, ICBA had previously submitted objections to trust bank charter applications from crypto companies like ZeroHash,
so this lawsuit is not a sudden event but a continuation of the ongoing struggle between traditional banking and crypto over bank charters and regulatory boundaries.
It is clear that crypto is becoming increasingly integrated into the U.S. financial system, so could the OCC's charter system become an important gateway for crypto to enter the U.S. financial infrastructure? $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% NEAR fund recovery, the next page is even more worth seeing
Seeing “all $3.8 million returned” brings a sigh of relief. The head of NEAR Intents stated in a public update on October 2 that the stolen funds have been fully returned, the team will stop the investigation, and called for issues to be reported through the bug bounty program.
Looking back at the timeline: on October 1, the team disclosed the security incident with an initial loss of about $3.8 million and promised full compensation. Now the “promise of compensation” has moved to “announcement of recovery,” which is substantial progress, but these two messages should not be confused as happening at the same time.
What I care more about in the follow-up review is clarifying: how the problem was discovered, what was fixed, and which parts underwent re-inspection. The money is back, but the service interruption causing user wait times and uncertainty also deserves serious documentation.
This news reminds me that when using cross-chain products, a simple step on the interface may involve multiple processes behind the scenes. Simple operation is good, but if something goes wrong, clearly explaining the process is equally important.
My view is that the recovery result is commendable; long-term trust still depends on transparent explanations and ongoing operational accumulation. Following this matter, what I want to continue seeing is the quality of the review, not just celebration posters.
#NEAR #OnChainSecurity #CryptoThe non-farm payrolls are finally out, and this time the numbers are clearly weaker than expected. The US added just 29,000 non-farm jobs in September, far below the market’s previous expectation of around 90,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%. At first glance, it may seem like this gives the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates. But I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion just yet. The current market environment is more complicated than simply saying, “Weak jobs$WLD
Can the counter-trend gains be maintained until the next pullback?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 0.511—0.588, with a trading volume of approximately 39.98 million USDT.
The morning window saw a rise of about 10%, outperforming mainstream coins. Relative strength is established, but the long-term trend still requires pullback support for validation.
I will watch whether the volume increases to break above 0.588 and then holds on the pullback; if this structure appears, it will increase confidence in continuation. The downside risk is insufficient support and failed recovery; if it falls below 0.511 and the rebound cannot reclaim it, the outlook will be downgraded. The above boundaries are from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.DOGE has reached another significant milestone!
The compliant US market has started to offer real $DOGE perpetual contracts.
Kalshi has launched DOGE perpetual futures, allowing US users to participate in DOGE leveraged trading in a CFTC-regulated market. Unlike traditional futures with expiration dates, perpetual contracts have no fixed expiry and can continuously track DOGE price fluctuations. (Kalshi News)
What’s even more noteworthy:
① DOGEUSD_RTI from CF Benchmarks is used as the price reference;
② Supports 24/7 trading;
③ This is the first compliant DOGE perpetual trading channel in the US market;