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$ETH This ID's viewpoint
ETH daily chart is consolidating at a high level. After surging to 2806.76, it faced resistance and pulled back, representing a mid-range consolidation after an uptrend. Entry: Wait for a secondary-level pullback to stabilize and a bottom fractal signal before considering going long. Stop loss: Place below 2629 (21-day moving average); breaking this level would invalidate the current upward structure.
Chan Theory Structure
The daily-level uptrend starting from the low of 1503.60 remains intact. After reaching the high of 2806.76, a daily-level consolidation zone is forming. The upper boundary (ZG) is at 2806.76, and the lower boundary (ZD) is near 2629. Two possible paths follow: if the secondary-level pullback does not break below ZD, a third buy setup forms to challenge the previous high; if ZD is effectively broken, the consolidation zone expands and the market will enter a deeper correction.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the prior rally phase, volume was strong. After touching the 2806.76 high, upward momentum clearly weakened. Volume on pullback candles gradually shrinks, selling pressure is not severe, indicating a rest phase after the rise without a high-volume distribution long bearish candle. Recent candle bodies have narrowed, bulls and bears are in a stalemate, awaiting capital to choose direction.
Key Observation Points
Focus on the previous high at 2806.76. A volume-backed break and hold above this high would continue the bullish trend; multiple failed attempts to break through and an extended consolidation period should raise caution for a downward test of the consolidation zone lower boundary ZD.BTC surged to 87220 then fell back to about 84600, with spot ETFs net inflow this week only around 82.9 million, compared to about 2.39 billion last week.
Observed: 24-hour high around 87220, low around 83888, current price about 84590, down about 2.1%.
On Thursday, spot BTC ETF still had a net inflow of about 102.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT buying about 195.6 million in one day.
During the same period, ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about 118 million this week, while last week they had an inflow of about 690 million, showing clear capital divergence.
Simply put: prices are pushing higher, but institutions have shifted from "aggressive buying" to "selective buying"; don't mistake the market's liveliness for hot money still pouring in aggressively.
My view: don't take the 87,000 surge as trend confirmation; the drop in weekly inflow from about 2.39 billion to about 82.9 million is a more glaring signal.
I will observe first and not chase; if it breaks below about 83880, consider it invalid, and if it holds, see if it can retake about 86500.
If it breaks the low, admit this rebound failed and don't stubbornly hold on.
Are you going to hold on with IBIT, or wait for weekly inflows to recover before acting?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turned to outflows, cooling capital enthusiasmThe first time I encountered this stuff was when a colleague pulled me into a group.
Every day in the group, someone was shouting trade signals.
I didn't understand anything.
I just got jealous seeing others make money.
So I bought $BTC first.
My hands were shaking after buying.
I smiled foolishly when it went up a bit.
I cursed when it dropped a bit.
Later, I chased $ETH.
After buying, it just moved sideways.
It moved sideways so much I wanted to uninstall.
Then I saw $SOL surge fiercely.
I got impulsive and jumped in.
Once in, it pulled back.
I got stuck and felt miserable.
During that time, I watched the market every day.
Even at work.
Even while eating.
I even checked before sleeping.
When I lost, I added more positions.
The more I added, the more I lost.
I also cut losses.
After cutting, it went up.
I was so angry I slammed the table.
I also tried contracts.
Leverage made my heart race happily.
I couldn't sleep the night I got liquidated.
Later, I learned my lesson.
Only use spare money.
Losing it doesn't affect my life.
When I make some profit, I withdraw it.
Buy some good food.
When the group shouts about 100x gains, I just watch.
When someone shows off profits, I don't believe it.
This industry has too much mixed information.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Now I don't watch the market every day.
I set an alert and leave it alone.
If I get itchy hands, I go for a run.
When I'm tired from running, I stop thinking about it.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick.
But you have to survive first.
Being able to sleep well is better than anything.
Don't borrow money.
Don't go all in.
Don't believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny.
But they come from losses.
I still watch the market now.
Just for fun.
No longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 Watching the market at 6 PM tonight BTC $84,600 down 2.05% in 24 hours, daily high $87,200, low $83,900 ETH $2,682 down 2.34% (Binance market data around 18:00 on 2026-10-03) First, the conclusion Yesterday’s peak at $87,000 has been retraced today. The high surged briefly then reversed, indicating the sell orders above are thicker than expected. I think there are three reasons for the drop: One, the rise last night was too fast. Around $87,000 was already a previous resistance level. Today’s high of $87,200 didn’t hold, and those who chased got pushed back halfway down. Two, liquidity is thin over the weekend with no data catalysts. Even a small amount of selling can push the price down sharply. Three, the interest rate hike cycle is not over yet. The Fed may raise rates again in October. Risk assets naturally lack the confidence for sustained rallies. There are positives too. Yesterday, the SEC proposed new crypto custody regulations allowing self-custody in certain cases and permitting state trust companies to act as custodians. This lowers the compliance threshold for institutional entry. But this is only a proposal. After the Federal Register publication, there will be a 60-day comment period, so actual implementation is still far off. The market clearly didn’t treat this as an immediate positive today. It’s like dating: the other party says, "We can add each other on WeChat first," and you’re already planning the wedding guest list, but they just want to chat first. The positive is real, but the pace is slow. Don’t trade proposals as results. Outlook for tomorrow: Around $84,000 is today’s low zone. Holding it means consolidation. Breaking below $83,000 means be cautious and look for support lower.$NEAR
The news has been quite lively recently.
NEAR officials stated that the stolen funds have been fully returned by the hacker, and the related investigation has been halted.
On-chain monitoring also shows that some smart money has strategically positioned itself during the pullback.
Current price is 4.719, down 3.95% intraday, with trading volume reaching 123 million USD.
The trend is bearish, with resistance above 4.9, and only a break below 4.5 would suggest a further decline.
$NEAR While everyone is applauding the 5.09% bullish candle, I have quietly pushed my piece to the opponent's second horizontal line — because in the endgame, the truly fatal factor is never that good move, but the empty pawn chain behind it.
First, look at the position. A 5.09% rise in 24 hours sounds impressive, but the short-term Bollinger Bands only allow +0.4% upward space, and the long-term Bollinger Bands have already reached 116% — meaning the price not only touched the upper band but also exceeded 1.1%. To me, this is not a breakout; it's a trespassing pawn: the pawn has advanced too far, and the supporting pieces behind haven't caught up. The 95% short-term percentile is the same — it looks close to the king but can't move a single step.
RSI short-term is 68.1, long-term 61.8, and the triggered sell condition only requires above 64. This is not a textbook extreme overbought, but I never wait for extremes — extremes are for gamblers; I only wait for structure. When the position is set, momentum dulls, and space is sealed off, the combination of these three is a standard restraint; every move of the opponent is already in my calculation tree.
So I don't act at the current price. $2.19 is the central grid; everyone is fighting for it, but the grid won by fighting is the easiest to be exchanged away. I will wait for a pullback, for it to walk into the grid I preset.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%)
Look closely at the tactical logic here: the two take profit levels differ by only about 0.5%, almost falling in the same grid. What does this mean? It means the lower Bollinger Band area below still has 7.2% space from the current price; once the price falls back from above, the first wave will directly hit it, with no effective resistance in between. I set two targets not out of hesitation but to leave myself an exit for exchanging pieces.
As for the 14.6% stop loss, spectators might say it's too wide or that the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable. This is exactly the difference between amateurs and professionals: stop loss is not for calculating ratios but for protecting the king's wing. I place the stop loss at 2.51 — if that grid is taken and held by the opponent, my entire midgame plan collapses, and I will concede defeat without anyone needing to remind me. To make this wide stop loss feasible, I use a small position size, trading piece quantity for error tolerance space.
True masters see the endgame twenty moves ahead before placing a piece. For this $SSV move, I'm not waiting for the price but for the opponent's mistake.
Now, the board is quiet. I'm waiting for him to walk into 2.26. #strategyplaybookTokenized stocks are becoming a new segment of RWA, but their development is limited by liquidity.
The tokenized stock market is valued at $3 billion, but only about 6% of this value is actually used in DeFi — as collateral for loans or to earn fees.
The rest of the assets mostly remain idle or are quickly resold.
The tokenization process itself has become simple. The issuer buys a real stock through a broker and issues a token that tracks its price.
The company itself may not participate.
Therefore, several versions of the same asset appear.
Tesla, for example, is already represented by at least five different tokens on various networks and platforms.
But the same price does not mean the same liquidity.
This is critically important for DeFi.
If tokenized stocks like $NVDA are used as collateral and the price drops, the protocol must quickly sell the asset.
Without a buyer, there is a risk of loss. The quote can disappear within seconds, while redeeming the token takes more time.
Therefore, the next stage of the market is on-chain liquidity operating 24/7.
Market makers place capital directly on the blockchain and maintain quotes around the real stock price. Pools allow trades without searching for a counterparty.
An additional mechanism is the exchange of a tokenized stock for a real stock and vice versa at a 1:1 ratio.
This creates arbitrage. If the token becomes cheaper than the real stock, a trader can buy it, redeem it, and sell the underlying asset for more. They become buyers when liquidity is scarce.
In the future, competition between tokens of the same stock will be determined not only by the issuer or blockchain.
More important will be market depth, DeFi usability, redemption speed, and 24/7 liquidity.
The main question for tokenized stocks is changing.
The market has already learned to bring stocks on-chain.
Now it must prove that these assets can work on-chain: be used as collateral, generate income, provide liquidity, and participate in financial operations.【Two Major Illusions in the Crypto Circle】
First illusion: "I'll rest after this rally."
Second illusion: "I'll bottom-fish after this drop."
The result:
Afraid to chase when prices rise,
Afraid to catch a falling knife when prices drop,
Annoyed by the lack of movement during sideways trading.
In the end:
Not sure if making money or not, but have checked the candlestick chart 300 times a day.I've dismantled too many projects that only have renderings but no load-bearing walls, and $RON is exactly this kind of structure—an impressive facade, but the core is already signaling alarms.
It only climbed 2.78% in 24 hours, which sounds calm, but when you measure it against the Bollinger Bands, the short-term price is stuck at 112% of the band, with only -0.3% clearance left on the upper band and +2.8% buffer on the lower band. This is not a peak; it's an overhanging cantilever, with the rebar already stretched to its yield point. The short-term RSI has surged to 70.3, the overbought zone sign is already up; meanwhile, the long-term RSI is only 40.5, still lying in the neutral-to-lower foundation—stress between the upper and lower structural layers is completely disconnected. Anyone who understands static equilibrium knows this stress model will crack sooner or later.
So the signal is 🔴SELL, and I have signed off on it. Position design is as follows:
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.05 (current price +1.6%)
Take Profit 1: 0.05 (-4.6%)
Take Profit 2: 0.05 (-4.3%)
Stop Loss: 0.06 (-13.3%)
Note the skeleton of this trade: the take profit space is just over 4%, but the stop loss is open to over 13%, a risk-reward ratio close to an inverse 1:3 structure—that means I must precisely place the entry point on the last beam of the rebound, exchanging ±1.6% entry deviation for structural safety, with almost zero tolerance for error. RSI1H is above 64 and still pushing down; short-term overbought combined with no support in the long term is a typical sign of top cantilever instability, not a shakeout.
True project value never depends on how pretty the whitepaper looks—that's just the design drawing; what matters is whether the underlying structure can bear its own weight, whether development progress can pour on schedule, and whether the ecosystem can continue to build upward. $RON's current load-bearing performance does not deserve a long-term construction permit.
My judgment is straightforward: the upper structure of this building has already shown measurable deformation. First, dismantle this section, and wait until it falls back to a place with a foundation before discussing reconstruction. #coinmovealert8 million ZRO tokens transferred to Coinbase Prime, spot trading on OKX at $1.7394 with a fee rate maintained at 0.0034%
Today, ZRO spot trading on OKX reached 9.07 million USDT in turnover. On-chain monitoring detected that 8 million tokens were just transferred into Coinbase Prime. Those holding positions should first see if $1.7394 can hold. The on-chain records uncovered by Yujin are very clear: two addresses are old acquaintances who received 40.57 million ZRO from the LayerZero strategic multisig a year ago, worth $73.02 million at the time. This morning, they directly pushed 8 million tokens (about $14.98 million) to the deposit address.
I checked OKX's order book; ZRO-USDT spot is trading at $1.7394, having fallen from a daily high of $2.0037. In 24 hours, 4.96 million ZRO tokens were traded (equivalent to 9.07 million USDT). Although a large amount of tokens were transferred on-chain, OKX's ZRO perpetual funding rate is hanging at 0.0034%, with the last settlement at -0.0078%. The short positions on the exchange have not clustered to cause a significant discount.
Over the next month, tokens worth more than $1.913 billion will be unlocked network-wide, with a single large ZRO unlock accounting for over $10 million. Once large amounts of tokens enter institutional custody accounts, the spot market usually needs some time to stabilize.$PEPE
Why can't a low unit price reduce risk?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 0.000004085—0.000004752, with a trading volume of about 25.79 million USDT.
The number of decimal places in the quote does not affect the percentage loss of the same amount of funds. The morning window saw a drop of over 4%; having more tokens does not mean it's easier to profit.
I will observe whether the volume increases to surpass 0.000004752 and then pull back to hold; if this structure appears, it will increase the judgment for continuation. The downside risk is insufficient support and failed rebound; if it breaks below 0.000004085 and the rebound cannot recover, the judgment will be downgraded. The above boundaries come from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.Sharing a trade: Today I opened a long position on SAND (The Sandbox)
This is not a trade call, just a record of my actions and thoughts for reference, don’t copy my trades.
Why SAND:
Today SAND surged directly to the top of CoinGecko’s trending list, reaching as high as 0.084 in a single day, currently at 0.076, up about +20% for the day. More importantly—blockchain games/metaverse tokens moved together today (GALA and MANA are also trending), it’s not a solo coin rally but a sector sentiment rebound. The Metaverse has been quiet for over half a year; a low-level rebound has a better risk/reward than chasing high-level coins.
My rules (key points):
• Small position, only using money I can afford to lose
• Entry cost at 0.07529, stop loss set at 0.07225; if broken, exit immediately, no holding on
• No chasing highs to add positions; will consider adding only after a pullback around 0.07 is confirmed
If it rises, that’s luck; if it falls, I follow my rules. It has now dropped nearly 10% from the intraday high, so be careful not to catch a falling knife if you want to enter.
What do you think about this SAND move? Is it a genuine recovery or a fake spike? Let’s discuss in the comments.
#SAND #TheSandbox #CryptoCommunityTalk #SharingNotCalling
⚠️ This is just my personal trading record and does not constitute investment advice. Please set your position size and stop loss according to your own risk tolerance. LITLITLIT fell about 8.2%, with contract open interest increasing nearly 70% in one hour, but still about 76% lower than the intraday peak.
As of 18:06 Beijing time, OKEx spot price was about $3.5481, with a 24-hour high of $3.8686 and a low of $3.416, amplitude about 13.3%; trading volume was about $14.39 million, approximately 1.28 times the median of the past 7 full trading days.
OKEx hourly statistics show nominal open interest value about $1.405 million, about $834,000 an hour ago, an increase of about 68.4%; compared to 24 hours ago, it only increased about 3.5%, and is still about 76.1% lower than the intraday peak of about $5.879 million. Current funding rate is about 0.005%, with perpetual contracts trading at a discount of about 0.06% compared to spot.
My judgment is that this looks more like a rapid rebound after significant deleveraging, and cannot yet be considered a trend reversal to strength. The easiest misjudgment is to chase the rebound seeing the short-term surge in open interest; the current price is still in the lower half of the intraday range, and new positions may first bear the price testing the bottom again.
Next, watch $3.416 and $3.60. If it reclaims the latter, with open interest maintained and the discount narrowing, the support can be considered stable; if it breaks the low while open interest remains higher than an hour ago, new leverage may amplify the next round of position reductions. $LIT There are always some things that require courage (Part 8)
"Nine Yang Manual"
The principal is the dantian, the position size is the true qi. When qi is sufficient, it generates itself; when the position is heavy, it burns itself. Leverage is like fire; it can refine gold or burn the body. Set a stop loss before opening a position; never open a position without a defined stop loss. The direction can be wrong, but life cannot be lost.
Let others pull as they will, the breeze brushes the hills; let others smash as they will, the bright moon shines over the great river. When the trend is unclear, being flat is winning; when rumors fly, stay still like a mountain. Do not chase highs, do not catch bottoms, do not hold losing positions, do not average down. Take profits in batches, never add to losing positions. Whenever there is profit, first withdraw the principal; securing profits is true yang.
When emotions rise, step away from the screen for 45 minutes; after three consecutive losses, rest for the day. Divide funds into three parts: trial and error, waiting for the trend, and survival. Do not envy hundredfold gains, only seek longevity. The market always has the next wave; those who are liquidated have no next round.
Others may be ruthless and evil, but I have a mouthful of true qi. This qi is not leverage, but discipline, position sizing, stop loss, patience, and respect. The Nine Yang is not about getting rich quickly, but about staying alive. Contracts are high risk, do not gamble with your life. This is not investment advice.Another 0.29% life-or-death line! BCH and SOL are making crazy profits, ETH is still dragging, this market is driving me nearly insane!
Brothers, open your accounts, looking at the bright red BCH and SOL, but feeling chills in my heart. This isn’t trading, it’s like sleeping with a bomb!
Position update:
BCH: The brightest star on the field! Full 10X leverage, entry at 261.02, mark at 311.38, unrealized profit +313.75U, ROI up to +161.64%! From deep loss to doubling now, this "living on the edge" really paid off.
SOL: Steady as an old dog! Full 20X leverage, entry at 115.63, mark at 119.29, unrealized profit +193.54U, ROI +61.36%. Holding up half the sky.
$ETH: The eternal drag! Full 5X leverage, entry at 2718.24, mark at 2679.07, unrealized loss -31.84U (-7.31%), hopeless.
Honestly speaking: two winners and one loser, total unrealized profit over 470U, looks great on paper. But the overall margin ratio is stuck at 0.29%! Not even 0.3%! Any random spike up or down, this 470U profit plus principal will instantly go to zero, no time even to manually close positions.
From deep losses in LTC, to a comeback in ZEC, and now BCH doubling, I wake up in the middle of the night watching forced liquidations, heart racing like a roller coaster with the K-line, I’ve really had enough! Rationally, I tell myself: liquidate immediately to lock in this 160% profit! But the gambler’s mind is acting up: what if BCH surges to 320? Getting off now would be like breaking my own leg?
Brothers, this 0.29% position, should I keep it tonight or not? Tell me if I should reduce my position immediately to save myself? Wake me up in the comments!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 I got into the crypto world because my colleague kept talking about it at his desk every day.
He said buying some $BTC casually could make a profit.
Listening to him, I got tempted.
I went home, downloaded the app, registered, and linked my card.
I fiddled with it until midnight to get it done.
The first time I bought, my fingers were stiff.
After buying, I kept staring at the screen.
When it went up a bit, I smiled foolishly.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
Later, I saw $ETH seemed a bit more stable.
I moved some money into it.
But it just stayed flat.
Flat enough that I wanted to uninstall the app every day.
Then $SOL surged.
I couldn’t resist chasing it.
As soon as I got in, it started to pull back.
I got stuck and even quit the group chat.
Some in the group shouted "take off."
Others shouted "run fast."
I was sometimes confident, sometimes panicked.
I also tried contracts.
Once I used leverage, my heart pounded like a drum.
The night I got liquidated, I smoked half a pack on the balcony.
Later, I slowly came to understand.
This thing can’t be treated as a meal ticket.
Now I only play with spare money.
Losing it doesn’t affect paying rent.
If I make a little, I withdraw it.
Buy some barbecue or add something for the family.
If I get itchy hands, I walk a couple of laps downstairs.
When tired, I come back and don’t want to buy anymore.
When others show off profits, I just swipe away.
When others shout for hundredfold gains, I treat it like listening to a comedy show.
There’s too much noisy news.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Anyway, I’ve been beaten by the market.
Now I don’t watch the market every day.
I set a reminder and leave it there.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than anything.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick.
But you have to survive first.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t get carried away.
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny.
They all come from losses.
I still watch the market now.
Just for fun.
No longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 I admit, I was really wrong yesterday Just pure luck. Went all in with 100x isolated margin, At night $ETH just shot up for me. Marked price went up to 2777.7 My stop loss was stuck tightly at 2778.5. A distance of just 0.8U! The tip of a needle almost pierced my stop loss line! At that moment, I really didn't even dare to breathe hard. I thought I was going to fall. But what happened? FakeBinance controls 50% of tokens, $MarsCoin has been trading sideways for a month. The storm should be approaching—let's take a look at the data to get the latest updates! As of October 3, 2026, #MarsCoin Changes in data from the top 40 holding addresses: Binance Spot: 47 million inflows; Gate1: 310,000 outflows; Gate5: 6 million outflows; Mexc: Inflows: 120,000 coins. New entries: 5 people, 4 people have moved up, 1 has opened a new position. Falling out of the top 40: 5 people, 3 deposited into Binance, 1 person cleared their position, 1 significantly reduced their position. Top 40 add positions: 2 people, both transferred in. Top 40 reduce positions: 2 people in total. MarsCoin Daily highlights: Among the addresses newly entering the top 40 this time, 4 saw normal increases. Notably, 1 person opened a new position. Of the 5 who fell out of the top 40, 3 deposited into Binance, while the other two reduced their positions significantly. The number of new and decreasing positions in the top 40 was relatively small, and the number of tokens involved was small. The most important exchange data came from Binance, with inflows reaching 47 million, while Gate saw 6 million outflows, which is quite large. After the token price surged to a high last time, It has already dropped about 35%, indicating some selling pressure. The large inflow into Binance's spot is most likely related to the announced holding dividends. These tokens are unlikely to be sold off; Binance currently holds about 50% of the tokens, while Marscoin is the main reason for the inflowSaifedean Ammous, author of "The Bitcoin Standard," poured cold water on the matter:
He believes that apart from Michael Saylor's Strategy, other "Bitcoin treasury companies" find it hard to compete.
Strategy holds 847,666 BTC with a cost basis of $63.95 billion, plus $5.02 billion in reserves covering preferred stock dividends and debt interest; large scale, strong cash position, and lower borrowing costs.
When BTC fell below $60,000 this summer, Strategy raised the STRC preferred stock dividend to 12%, repurchased shares, and built cash reserves.
"Buying coins" is easy, but "maintaining the treasury structure" is difficult. "No Overnight Positions"
$BTC has touched above 84,000 again, and $ETH is back to 2,664. The weekly ups and downs feel like nothing happened. But the account knows something did.
Yesterday, watching the market, I still thought the bulls were recovering. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, the US-Iran situation tightened again, and the G7 planned to release reserves. When the news landed, the market first digested it then turned sour. That sudden sharp drop woke me up and pushed me close to liquidation.
At that moment, I admitted: not everyone can hold long-term. I used to believe "if the direction is right, holding longer is fine." Now I see, that’s the most expensive consolation. The longer you hold, the easier it is to turn from a trader into a defense lawyer: first finding excuses, then waiting a bit, then believing it will come back, and finally averaging down by adding positions. When I first opened the position, I clearly understood "cut losses quickly," but holding for a few days feels like a different person.
The problem isn’t the candlesticks or indicators. You can learn the techniques, calculate position sizes, but the stubbornness, wishful thinking, and obsession in your character always surface late at night. The market only needs one needle to prick them all out.
So I no longer force myself to hold long-term. If I can’t hold, I won’t. I switched to intraday trading: open and close positions the same day, no overnight positions, and no emotional baggage left for the next day’s surprises. It’s not that intraday is more advanced, it’s just more suitable for me now.
The hardest thing to change in trading is never the technique, but the part of yourself that refuses to admit mistakes. Technique is the knife; character is the hand holding the knife. If the hand is unsteady, the faster the knife moves, the deeper the wounds.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Non-farm payrolls positive news disrupted by a geopolitical black swan; PONS dipped sharply then started to recover
Check the market at 6 PM
Last night, the non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, causing the rate hike expectations to collapse
BTC surged to 87,000, but then Iran caused trouble in the Strait of Hormuz, and risk appetite was crushed again
PONS also took a rollercoaster ride along with the market
PONS dipped to 0.4124 during this drop and has now recovered to 0.4283
RSI6 rebounded quickly from 15.97 to 70.41, indicating a fast short-term recovery
MACD just formed a golden cross below the zero line, suggesting stabilization
Resistance above is first seen between 0.44 and 0.45, support is at the dip low of 0.4124
Fundamentally, there has been a lot of news about PONS these days
Founder Ozzy announced entering V3 mode, adding income to reduce vampires, and giving token creators the choice of trading mechanisms
Buyback and burn have also been automated; the new mechanism allows funds to be claimed every 7 days, followed by buyback and burn within the next 7 days
However, the community has doubts, saying the burn rate has not been adjusted yet, and about $440,000 of claimable funds are piled up in the custody account without timely processing
Ozzy responded that the contract is being upgraded and this issue will be resolved
Also, on the Hyperliquid side, a whale named Loracle has held a 3x short position on PONS since early September, with peak holdings exceeding 25 million tokens
Although there was some profit-taking in between, the whale reopened shorts near 0.63, with floating profits over one million
This recent drop is definitely related to this whale dumping in line with the trend
My judgment
The dip low at 0.4124 has held for now, showing signs of short-term recovery
But the moving averages above are pressing down, and geopolitical risks have not dissipated, so the rebound height is limited
No chasing shorts, no rush to bottom-fish, wait for it to find its own direction
Focus on whether 0.4124 can hold; if broken, look lower
Do you hold PONS?
Did you bottom-fish or get buried? Raise your hand in the comments👇
$PONS $BTC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $Lobster
It feels like after Lobster withdrew a batch of OI, many BSC projects also withdrew quite a lot, probably the same group of people. Not sure why they all withdrew.
Scrolling through Binance Square, I saw a bunch of long positions trapped by $Lobster$ bulls. Besides those trapped on BSC, there are also $ZEC $ZAMA $MOVR trapped. Next time when everyone is shouting loudly, it's better to stay away. You can stay on the sidelines but don't get trapped.The first time I heard someone talk about virtual currency was in the company break room.
A colleague said he bought $BTC and earned enough to buy a computer.
After hearing that, I was itching inside.
On the way home, I downloaded the app.
Registered and verified until midnight.
After buying, my palms were sweaty.
Then I stared at the screen.
When it rose a bit, I smiled foolishly.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
Later, $ETH seemed more stable.
I moved some money into it.
But it stayed flat.
Flat enough that I wanted to uninstall every day.
Then $SOL surged.
I couldn’t resist chasing it.
It pulled back right after I entered.
I was stuck and even muted the group chat.
Some in the group shouted "take off."
Others shouted "run fast."
Sometimes I believed it, sometimes I panicked.
I also tried contracts.
Once I used leverage, my heart pounded like a drum.
The night of liquidation, I sat on the balcony to cool off.
Later, I slowly understood.
This thing can’t be a way of life.
Now I only use spare money.
Losing it won’t affect paying rent.
If I earn a bit, I withdraw it.
Buy some barbecue.
Or add something for the family.
If I’m itchy, I walk around downstairs.
When tired, I don’t want to buy anymore.
When others show profits, I just swipe away.
When others shout about hundredfold gains, I treat it like listening to a comedy show.
There’s too much noisy news.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Anyway, the market has beaten me.
Now I don’t watch the market every day.
Set a reminder and leave it there.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than anything.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick.
But first, you have to survive.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t get carried away.
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny.
They all come from losses.
I still watch the market now.
Just for fun.
No longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has just hit its lowest level since 1982.
This means the buffer accumulated over these 40-plus years has been depleted. We're talking about the emergency oil reserves the government keeps to respond to supply shocks, wars, hurricanes. $ETH
When reserves drop this low, it means we've been drawing heavily on them—likely to manage oil prices or offset production cuts elsewhere.
The signal this sends is: if problems arise, our "cushion" is thinner. OPEC cuts supply? Major overseas disruption? Then we have fewer resources available. $BTC
For the market, this is a reminder that energy security is not just about price, but about having enough reserves when you need them. And right now, our reserves aren't plentiful. $SOL The market volatility is outrageous; the more concentrated the sentiment, the crazier the capital.
$BTC started with a bull trap last night. How many people closed their short positions and switched to long? This is really outrageous. Many have added positions. Now with the downtrend, many believe the bull market is over.
Long-short ratio: Big players are heavily holding on, becoming the market's short-selling hotspot.
Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.2065, OKX is 1.33.
Big players' long-short ratio is as high as 2.0224. Big players are heavily holding long positions.
Once the price breaks below the $83,000 stop-loss line, it could trigger a "long liquidation" cascade at any time.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $ETH $ZEC Digging through this thick stratigraphic profile spanning several months, what I see is not some new public chain narrative, but rather the carbonized relics from the night before the destruction of ancient Roman Pompeii.
By day, I wear gloves at the construction site cleaning Han dynasty tile ends; by night, I watch the $SUI candlestick chart, feeling no difference between the two. There is nothing new under the sun; every frenzy and shakeout is just another generational replay of human greed and fear genes.
Looking at the 1.1814 level, the upper Bollinger Band is building a bronze city wall near 1.1959, while the RSI lingers at 57.7 halfway up the slope. It's like unearthing a half-broken pottery jar at the site, neither high nor low, filled with the sighs of retail investors frantically working at the pit bottom, paying fees to the main players.
Working at the construction site shoveling dirt at least gets you a steamed bun; holding contracts here means your underwear could become an unearthed artifact in minutes. But from a stratigraphic perspective, multiple retests of the Bollinger middle and lower bands show the rammed earth layer hasn't completely loosened; the fire of the bull civilization still smolders beneath the sediment.
In stratigraphy, such retests are the classic "last flicker of light" bottom probes. As long as the foundation below doesn't collapse, this broken bronze artifact still has premium potential to be re-exhibited in the museum.
- Target: $SUI 🟢
- Entry: 1.1600 - 1.1850
- TP1: 1.2500
- TP2: 1.3200
- SL: 1.1000
Carbon-14 dating never lies; breaking the stop-loss means the cultural layer is completely severed, directly classified as ruins.
#CoinMoveAlertAfter yesterday's surge, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced some degree of correction. Currently: 🔸 $BTC: about 84,600 🔸 $ETH: about 2,675 From the short-term 15-minute level, after several consecutive dips, prices have started to slowly recover, and the market remains quite polarized. One of the most discussed questions in the market right now is: 👉 If $BTC reaches 100,000 and $ETH reaches 3,000, will this round of the market approach a phased end? And more importantly—can it continue to rise in October? Meanwhile, gold's performance has not kept pace with the crypto market; gold prices are now close to falling below 4,100, and the divergence among assets is becoming more pronounced. From a macro perspective, the crypto market is still affected by dollar liquidity and large capital allocations. 📌 Market enthusiasm for BTC and ETH spot ETFs has cooled 📌; US Treasury yields remain high 📌; long-term interest rate pressure has not been completely eliminated 📌. After a short-term rally, BTC and ETH have entered a phase of oscillatory digestion. Therefore, the most important thing now is not to simply guess where the bull market will end, but to observe whether capital flows, ETF demand, and the interest rate environment improve again in October. If BTC can break previous highs with increased volume, the market structure will naturally change again; Conversely, if pressure persists at high levels, further pullbacks should be guarded again #BT$ARB SEC staff guidance states that maintenance/buybacks are not considered operational activities, sharply reducing the securities risk attribute of ARB.
The guidance removes ARB's maintenance and buybacks from the "securities" classification. Token inflation selling pressure remains, but the compliance red light turns yellow; Arbitrum has become the first chain to host 7,000 RWAs, shifting the narrative from L2 TVL to real assets.
Sequencer revenue goes to the DAO treasury, and token holders still only profit from price differences; fee capture remains a promise.
Regulation is warming but inflation hasn't stopped; position capped at 30%. Hold at 0.19 and push to 0.22; reduce positions if it breaks 0.18. The cheap label on ARB hasn't been removed, and this sweet gesture from the SEC will only last for a while. 2Z current price 0.04642, market bias is bearish. The four-hour level downtrend line is tightly pressing, MACD green bars are shortening but with no volume, RSI oversold does not mean a rebound, it just means the decline is slowing. The liquidation map is more straightforward, heavy long liquidations concentrated below 0.0464, once broken it triggers a chain reaction. Breakout upwards? How much long fuel needs to be consumed, the current volume is simply insufficient.
Just put the thermos on the windowsill, someone downstairs is honking to urge opening the door.
On-chain fees in Q3 reached 3.3 billion USD, 1.44 billion in September alone, Robinhood’s chain is the most aggressive. But the Clarity Act failed, regulation is still in dispute. Tether froze 550 million USDT related to Iran, liquidity is tight.
For 2Z operations, the bearish view remains unchanged. Enter short positions in batches between 0.0465 and 0.0470, take profit first target at 0.0448, second target at 0.0432. Stop loss above 0.0478, if broken admit the mistake. Do not bottom-fish, there is still room below the dense liquidation area.
Watch the rhythm, narrow range oscillation downward, do not chase shorts, wait for a rebound to enter.
$2Z
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
@OKX星球 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
I am the mid-term intelligence guy, just saw a piece of news.
Stablecoins shrank by 14 billion since May, rebounded by 4 billion in September, with a total market cap of about 270 billion, showing signs of reversal. $BTC still needs more liquidity injection to hit new highs.
Short-term stablecoin inflows can only provide support, hard to push prices to new peaks; shrinkage corresponds to capital outflows and thin trading depth, which will amplify volatility; if US Treasury yields remain high and the dollar stays tight, on-chain funds won't easily return.
In conclusion: it's not "no market," it's "no ammunition."
Currently, $BTC and $ETH show strong oscillation, but breaking previous highs requires confirmation of continued stablecoin expansion; watch if 270 billion can hold, then watch if the next 4 billion can be continuously replenished.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Weekend Market Overview: Warmth Is Here, Just One Step Away from Confirmation
It's the weekend, so first, wishing everyone a bit of relaxation. The market shows a bit more warmth compared to midweek.
$BTC is hovering around 86,000. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, significantly below expectations, which pushed back the tightening expectations for October. ETF funds are also showing signs of inflow, and sentiment has strengthened accordingly. However, 87,000 remains the immediate barrier; if it can't break through, wait for a pullback confirmation—don't mistake the rebound for a breakout.
ETH is recovering along with the broader market. The weak non-farm data and improved ETF funds are supportive, and interest rate pressure has temporarily eased. In the short term, it has pulled up from a low level; if it holds above 2,800, there is room for further recovery. If it falls back near 2,750, it indicates this wave is still more of a rebound. The overall heat of spot ETFs is cooling down and should not be ignored.
$SOL has returned above 120, with institutional funds and ETF narratives still the main drivers, and on-chain activity is providing support. 125 is a key short-term level; only a volume-backed hold above it offers a chance to continue higher. Weekend liquidity is thin, so waiting for a pullback is more comfortable.
OKB's ecosystem and supply logic remain unchanged, with a relatively stable chip structure. After the previous rally, it has entered a digestion phase. As long as key platforms don't break down, the trend hasn't clearly worsened. It's suitable to wait for support rather than chase sentiment.
RE is oscillating around 0.5. RWA and reinsurance narratives are regaining fund attention, and the protocol's cumulative revenue growth is a plus. However, circulating supply is only about 16%, and there is another unlock on the 18th, so supply pressure must be guarded against. If 0.5 holds, recovery is still possible.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% After the NEAR Intents attack, the team stated that they have identified the attacker, provided a 48-hour window to return the funds, and promised full compensation to affected users. The preliminary disclosed loss is about $3.8 million. The information is more complete than when the incident first occurred, but identifying the attacker, recovering the funds, and completing compensation are still at different stages.
Currently disclosed issues involve the interaction between Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and the Intents contract, which cannot be directly expanded to mean the entire NEAR underlying network was compromised. Pinpointing the problematic link helps assess the risk; however, for affected users, the most urgent concern is when their funds will be restored.
I support the team’s initial commitment to compensation, as this at least gives users a responsible party to hold accountable. But after the commitment, the scope of compensation and execution timeline need to be clarified. Whether the attacker cooperates should not be a reason for users to wait indefinitely.
This incident also made me reconsider the convenience of cross-chain products. The more the front end integrates operations smoothly, the easier it is for us to forget which systems a single transaction actually passes through. Users see one confirmation, but the backend may involve multiple interaction steps; security assessments cannot stop at familiar brands alone.
It is a bit early to debate whether the coin price has fallen too far. When services will resume, how the repair report explains the problem, and whether compensation has been received are all more effective at restoring trust than shouting at the attacker. Hopefully, the next update will provide clear execution results.
#NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10% Fell below $1350, $ZEC is really about to break even A few days ago, it was obvious that ZEC's trend was getting weaker Sure enough Yesterday $BTC rebounded to 86,000, $ETH rebounded to 2,700 But ZEC was still below 1400, my feeling was right Today the market corrected, and ZEC directly fell below 1300 The position went from a maximum floating loss of over 2000% to now reduced to over 650% I also took back over 1350% profit from the dog dealer Next, I still firmly bearish on ZEC Breaking the fouSTH-SOPR looks at whether short-term holders are overall making a profit or a loss when selling coins. A value greater than 1 indicates average profit realization, while less than 1 indicates average loss realization.
From BTC reaching STH-RP to the early bull phase peak:
(1) In 2019, STH-SOPR fell below 1 about once;
(2) In 2023, it fell below 1 about twice;
(3) In 2026 so far, it has been 0 times.
Additionally, during the early bull phases of 2019 and 2023, STH-SOPR also surged to higher profit realization peaks; this round has not yet reached similar levels.
Therefore, from this indicator, the short-term holder structure during this round of correction remains relatively strong, and the intensity of profit realization has not yet reached the extremes of the previous two early bull phases. Other people's gains are not your answer
When the market just starts to warm up, the loudest noise is often not the price, but the sentiment. Dogecoin rebounded about 2.4% intraday, but still fell about 3.5% over the week. The same bullish candle makes newcomers feel "stable," while those who chased the highs a few days ago only see "still a bit short of breaking even." But the market owes no one a bailout, and account profits and losses won't turn positive early just because you're anxious.
The temptation of $PEPE is very direct: many zeros after the decimal point, so buying a little means a big string of coins. But holding a large quantity does not mean making money is easier; looking cheap does not mean less risk. If your reason for placing an order is just because others are showing profits or you're afraid of missing out, then you haven't really thought through why you are optimistic.
$SUI tends to mix "long-term recognition" with "short-term impatience." You say you're willing to wait a few months, but if nothing happens two days after buying, you want to switch to coins that rise faster. First ask yourself: how long can you really wait? If it's only two days, don't dress short-term anxiety up as value investing.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%, macro data will also amplify volatility. Especially at times like this, you need to distinguish: are you chasing others' excitement, or do you have your own reasons, position size, and timeframe? Other people's candlesticks cannot replace your own drawdown.Crypto Market Mixed: Recovery, Critical Points, and Supply Reduction
$BTC and $ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous net outflows, short-term funds clearly cooling down, risk appetite declining, making it harder for altcoin sectors to rally broadly.
NEAR: Positive news and incidents collide. Just three days after ETF listing, Bitwise NRR net inflow is about $52.8 million; however, on October 1, NEAR Intents suffered a $3.8 million hacker attack, with price dropping from 5.34 to 4.74. The vulnerability has been fixed and full compensation promised, with 4.74 temporarily acting as support. Institutional allocation is only about 0.8%, so there is still room ahead, but confidence recovery will take time.
DOGE: Spring compressed to the limit. Price stuck at 0.10, with 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all squeezed between 0.09 and 0.10. Retail and institutional bulls account for 72% and 78% respectively, indicating crowded positions. 0.10 is the lifeline: a breakout targets 0.12, while failure to break through may lead to a pullback to 0.085–0.09.
FIL: Supply turning point approaching. Current price around 1.05, with a six-year lockup ending on October 15, annual new supply expected to drop from 88.4 million to 22 million, a 75% decrease. The largest selling pressure source will gradually recede, but the positive impact won’t be realized immediately and will require several months to digest.
Overall, ETF outflows suppress sentiment; NEAR looks to recovery, DOGE eyes a breakout, FIL anticipates long-term supply contraction. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $ADA has been very active recently, first collaborating with UCLA, the University of Zurich, and the University of Brasilia to develop blockchain-related courses, and now launching a 4-hour AI programming course. Is this a distraction or a strategic detour?
In the past few years, although $ADA has had impressive technology, its ecosystem has been a mess, with accelerating user loss. Without users, there is no revenue. No matter how strong your narrative is, without an audience, it’s all for nothing. I believe ADA’s recent series of puzzling moves are aimed at breaking out and attracting more potential young people to understand and participate in the Cardano project. I think this can be seen as a strategic detour!
Compared to some projects that do nothing, ADA is at least seeking breakthroughs, which is a small positive!
Looking at ADA’s price trend, although it is currently in a pullback mainly due to the overall market decline, the steady upward trend has not been broken. In the long term, ADA’s price is still at the bottom. My strategy remains to add to my position and go long on pullbacks to the trendline! The first time I heard someone talk about virtual currency was at a barbecue stand.
A friend said he made enough from buying $BTC to pay for a meal.
After hearing that, I couldn't sit still.
On the way home, I downloaded the app.
Registered and verified until midnight.
After buying, my palms were sweaty.
Then I just stared at the screen.
When it went up a bit, I smiled foolishly.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed.
Later, I saw $ETH seemed more stable.
I moved some money into it.
But it just stayed flat.
Flat enough that I wanted to uninstall every day.
Then $SOL surged.
I couldn't resist chasing it.
It pulled back right after I entered.
I was stuck and even muted the group chat.
Some in the group shouted "take off."
Others shouted "run fast."
Sometimes I believed it, sometimes I panicked.
I also tried contracts.
Once I used leverage, my heart raced like a drum.
The night I got liquidated, I sat on the balcony to cool off.
Later, I slowly figured it out.
This thing can't be a way of life.
Now I only use spare money.
Losing it won't affect paying rent.
If I make a little, I withdraw it.
Buy a barbecue.
Or add something for the family.
If I feel itchy, I walk around downstairs.
When tired of walking, I don't want to buy anymore.
When others show off profits, I just swipe away.
When others shout "100x," I treat it like listening to a comedy show.
Too much news, too mixed.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Anyway, the market has beaten me.
Now I don't watch the market every day.
Set a reminder and leave it there.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than anything.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick.
But you have to survive first.
Don't borrow money.
Don't get carried away.
Don't believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny.
But they come from losses.
I still watch the market now.
Just for fun.
No longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 Summary of the significant drop in PONS, the benefits of massive buyback and burn, value enhancement, and long-term development
PONS protocol rules: 80% of platform fees are automatically used to buy back tokens on the secondary market and permanently burn them. When the token price drops, assuming protocol revenue remains stable, the long-term effect of buyback and burn is amplified, which also positively contributes to deflating the ecosystem bubble and filtering users.
1. Regarding buyback and burn: With the same amount of funds, more tokens can be repurchased, accelerating deflation
1. Under unchanged protocol revenue, the lower the token price, the more PONS tokens can be bought back with the same USD buyback funds, sent to the black hole for permanent burn, accelerating the reduction of total circulation and enhancing scarcity. During bull market high price phases, the same fee can only buy a small amount of tokens; during price corrections at low levels, buyback efficiency significantly improves.
2. Continuous TWAP timed buybacks avoid chasing highs, persistently absorbing market selling pressure during downtrends, passively taking on market sell orders, permanently removing circulating tokens from the market, and continuously reducing supply.
3. Burn records are publicly verifiable on-chain; every buyback and burn has proof, continuously signaling to the market the protocol’s commitment fulfillment, strengthening token economic credibility.
2. Regarding intrinsic token value: Increasing the gold content per token, squeezing out short-term valuation bubbles
1. With total business value unchanged and fewer circulating tokens, each PONS corresponds to a larger share of protocol rights and cash flow, increasing the intrinsic value per token.
2. Squeezing out short-term speculative bubbles: Early price rises attract a large amount of short-term speculative capital; a sharp drop will wash out pure gamblers who only profit from short-term hype, leaving holders who believe in the ecosystem’s long-term value, resulting in a cleaner token holder structure.
3. Valuation returns to rationality, shifting token price from emotion-driven speculation pricing back to business cash flow-based pricing, reducing the amplitude of future market volatility.
3. Regarding long-term ecosystem development: Purifying the ecosystem, retaining genuine users, refining the product
1. Eliminating short-term speculative users, retaining true ecosystem participants who use the token launchpad and create projects, shifting the ecosystem from a pure speculation community to a real business community.
2. During market cooling phases, the team no longer needs to be distracted by short-term token price fluctuations, allowing more focus on product iteration, expanding new businesses like social trading, and improving ecosystem infrastructure.
3. Survival of the fittest in the sector: As hype fades, competitors without real revenue will be eliminated. PONS, with real fee cash flow plus buyback and burn mechanisms, is more likely to win in sector reshuffles.
4. At low price stages, it is favorable for long-term whales and institutional funds to gradually build positions, reserving long-term buying power for future market recovery.#US September Nonfarm Payrolls Increase by Only 29,000, Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.2%
The nonfarm data fell far short of expectations, yet the crypto market actually plunged for three reasons.
First, many doubt the credibility of this employment data.
Second, weak employment indicates a slowdown in economic vitality, and recession fears are more frightening than interest rate hikes. Of course, there is no clear recession signal yet; if AI cannot continue to drive the US economy, subsequent risks will truly emerge.
Third is the usual pattern of positive news being priced in. Before the news was released, many spot and long positions were already set up; the market makers won’t help lift the price, using the news to shake out positions, which makes the market healthier.
The bullish long-term trend remains unchanged for now; BTC 83-85 is strong support, and ETH pullbacks can be opportunistically positioned.
⚠️This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice$BTC $ETH $ZECRecently, it has been noticed that market sentiment indicators have fallen to extreme lows again, even reaching 5 at one point. Such panic levels are rare; similar extreme sentiment has occurred in the deep correction phases of 2019 and 2022. After BTC fell back to around $57,800, buying quickly appeared, and the price rebounded to some extent. 📉 Looking back at past market cycles, a clear phenomenon is that market bottoms often do not appear when everyone is optimistic, but rather often appear during the most pessimistic periods. However, it should be noted that extreme sentiment indicators do not necessarily mean this is an absolute bottom. To confirm whether the current low can truly hold, we still need to observe a few signals: 🔹 If it pulls back again, can key support hold 🔹? Can spot market and ETF inflows continue to improve 🔹? Can BTC regain control in important medium- and long-term price zones. True bottoms are usually hard for the market to confirm in advance. If the $57,800 level is never retouched in the future, this extreme panic could become a very special market node. At this stage, my approach is still cautious: don't blindly cut losses out of panic, nor go all-in to buy the bottom just because emotions are extreme. Patiently wait for more resonance signals from price, capital, and sentiment. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2 9,000 #BTCETH现货ETF资金流向 #Crypto #BitcoRecently, the market was trading the bullish logic of "non-farm payroll cooling," with BTC briefly surging near $87,000 but then quickly retreating. What's even more noteworthy is that ETF capital flows have started to change. 📊 From September 17 to 29, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.1 billion. But on September 30, it suddenly turned to a net outflow of about $149 million, breaking the previous continuous inflow rhythm; On October 1, it recorded a net inflow of about $103 million again. So the key point is not "how much money flows out," but whether the direction of funds has started to fluctuate. BTC's previous rise from $83,000 → $87,000 was indeed accompanied by strong ETF inflows. If the price returns to around $87,000 and funds are cashing out, you need to watch for profit-taking pressure from above. 📌 Next, focus on watching: BTC has regained the $85,000 → structure remains relatively stable. It breaks out again and holds above $87,000→ The upside potential is likely to open up again. Good news keeps coming but the price falls back below $85,000→ the market needs to be cautious. What the market really needs to watch out for is sometimes not bad news. Rather—good news keeps appearing, funds are telling positive stories, but prices just won't rise $BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH #Bitcoin #EthereuIn the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $563 million, with 109,000 people being liquidated. BTC and ETH both retraced simultaneously, but the Fear and Greed Index remains at 67, indicating that the existing funds in the market have not exited, they are just looking for low market cap targets as an emotional outlet.
$NIGHT is in an ascending channel on TradingView, with a bullish MACD golden cross upward, the bullish structure remains intact, but RSI has already entered the overbought zone, indicating a short-term need for a pullback to digest gains. The liquidation chart shows a large accumulation of short forced liquidation orders around 0.0501, and the current price of 0.05022 is right on the upper edge of this liquidation magnet zone.
Just parked the electric vehicle in the back alley of the shopping district, and my phone keeps vibrating nonstop with order reminder calls one after another.
Under this structure, either there will be a volume breakout below 0.0510 triggering short covering directly, or a spike down near 0.0493 for a shakeout before a rebound. The trading strategy is to enter long positions on a pullback to the 0.0493 to 0.0500 range, with the first take profit at 0.0528, the second take profit at 0.0545, and a stop loss at 0.0484. If volume breaks above 0.0512, a light position can be added, moving the stop loss up to 0.0500. If it falls below 0.0484, abandon the position; below 0.045 is a larger liquidation zone.
$NIGHT
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
@OKX星球 $BTC $ETH
After BTC touched above 87200, it pulled back and is now fluctuating around 84600; ETH surged to 2777 before falling back to around 2675. Frequent spikes on the 15-minute chart, with bears dumping multiple times but gradually being absorbed, short-term still in recovery, but volume has not truly expanded.
Does this bull market really have to wait for BTC to break 100,000 and ETH to surpass 3000 before it ends? October may still have opportunities for repeated rallies, but if spot ETFs continue net outflows and long-term U.S. Treasury yields do not retreat, the rebound looks more like a zero-sum game rather than a full-scale main rise.
$XAU Gold is approaching 4100; looking back at the last time at the same price level, BTC was just over 50,000 and ETH about 1900. Now the synchronicity between gold and crypto has clearly weakened, with large funds repricing behind the strength or weakness of the dollar.
ETF outflows cool down capital heat; long-term rate pressure remains unresolved. Both bulls and bears are uncomfortable: bulls fear macro suppression, bears fear liquidity backlash. Genius traders, are you currently leaning long or short? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Last night during the non-farm payrolls, as soon as ETH pulled up, I felt something was off and decisively shorted in. Sure enough, it dropped shortly after, and funds retreated a bit, otherwise I really couldn't hold on.
Now I don't want to be greedy, better to take profits and secure gains. A good mood for the whole day starts from the morning 😁.
The data is weak, ETFs are still flowing out, and market sentiment hasn't stabilized. Rallies just give shorts an opportunity, no point in fighting. Take profits when you see a good chance; that's better than anything.
$ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 "Forced liquidation just above 90,000, can short positions still hold?"
Bro, forced liquidation just above 90,000, current price 84,000—85,000, it looks like there's still 6% room, but it's actually not safe. Non-farm payrolls just dropped, volatility increased, liquidity is thin over the weekend, a single spike could sweep it up. 90,000 is a round number and also a psychological defense line for shorts. Once BTC volume firmly holds above 87,000, the next target is 90,000, and your forced liquidation can easily be triggered.
Today I lost badly, adding margin can buy time, but can't create direction. Whether to hold shorts depends not on emotions but on two levels: above 87,000, reduce if it holds; below 84,000, only safe if it breaks down. If you really want to keep holding, forced liquidation should be pushed above 100,000 to have a buffer. But a safer approach is to reduce positions, not add funds.
How far can BTC go this round? No one can guarantee. Data leans dovish for a bottom, unemployment rate is high, both upward to 100,000 and downward to 80,000 are possible. Don't bet on one side, first protect your capital. Holding shorts isn't impossible, but don't hold to the death.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
This is just personal observation, not investment advice. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $ETH Non-farm night, the market first surged then fell! Data was below expectations, previous values were also revised down, rate concerns continue to ease, and risk appetite briefly warmed up. BTC faced resistance near 87300, dipping to a low of 83900; Ethereum weakened in sync, giving back intraday gains.
From the market perspective, the bullish structure remains intact, and the trend is still upward, indicating the upward phase is not over yet. No new short-term bearish factors, the pullback looks more like a shakeout. Strategy: do not chase highs, wait for a pullback to position long.
$BTC: Watch for support around 82500-83500, resistance at 86500-87500, a breakout targets 88500-90500.
$ETH: Watch support around 2620-2680, defend 2570, exit if broken, targets at 2760-2820-2920.
Positioning is more important than direction; even when following the trend, wait for a pullback. For review only, not investment advice. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC
Viewpoint of this ID
BTC daily chart maintains a high-level oscillation pattern. After surging to 87395, it pulled back and is now in a consolidation phase following the rise. Wait for a secondary-level pullback to stabilize before considering entry, with stop loss set at the lower boundary of this oscillation range.
Entry: Wait for a 30-minute secondary-level pullback to show stabilization signals, then choose an opportunity to enter a long position.
Stop loss: Set stop loss below 82191; if this level is broken, the current daily upward structure will no longer hold.
Chan Theory Structure
At the daily level, the upward trend starting from 62275 remains intact. After the high of 87395, a daily-level consolidation zone is being formed. The current price is oscillating within this zone, with the upper boundary (ZG) near 87395 and the lower boundary (ZD) at 82191 (the 21-day moving average). Two possible directions follow: if the secondary-level pullback does not break below ZD, a third buy wave will continue the upward attack; if ZD is effectively broken, the consolidation zone expands and the market will enter a deeper correction.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the previous rally phase, volume was sufficient. After the K-line that created the 87395 high, the upward volume noticeably shrank. The pullback K-lines after the peak show gradually decreasing volume, indicating selling pressure is not severe and this is a rest phase after the rise, without large-scale distribution or high-volume long bearish candles. Recently, K-line bodies have narrowed, with bulls and bears temporarily stalemated, waiting for capital to choose a direction.
Key Observation Points
Focus on the breakthrough of the previous high at 87395. A volume-supported close above this high will restart the bullish trend; if repeatedly tested but not broken, the oscillation period will lengthen, and caution is needed for a downward test of the lower boundary of the consolidation zone.🔥After QNT surged 178%, OKX turned around and started 50x leverage! Is this wave an opportunity or a meat grinder? In one week, it surged 178%, and OKX launched 50x perpetual contracts overnight. When Wall Street's institutional narrative hits the high-leverage gamble of retail investors, who's eating the meat and who's getting beaten? Guys, the hottest topic in the crypto world recently is just one thing—QNT. This thing went from less than $100 to $357 in a week, a 178% increase, and at its low, it exceeded 400%. Then on October 1st, OKX directly launched QNT's USDT perpetual contracts, with up to 50x leverage and funding rates settled every 4 hours. With this move, I can only say OKX really understands traffic. --- Why did QNT explode like this? It's not just a fabrication—there's real stuff behind it. On September 24, The Clearing House—the payment infrastructure giant controlled by 25 major US banks—announced it would choose Quant Network to provide core technical support for its 'on-chain currency plan' for clearing and settling tokenized commercial bank deposits. Simply put, Wall Street wants to move bank deposits on-chain, and QNT is that bridge. Not only in the US, but in September, the UK Financial Association also confirmed that seven major UK banks—including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest, and Santander—have completed real-time trading tests of tokenized pound sterling deposits using Quant's technology. This narrative is more than any meme coinThe structure leans bullish, with the price consolidating narrowly around 84546. The 4-hour timeframe is still in an uptrend, with long positions accounting for about 68%. Sellers have been exerting pressure in the last hour, but the price has barely dropped, indicating support below. Entry should be placed at the current price of 84546, as it closely aligns with the lower Bollinger Band at 84516 and the 20-period low at 84506, forming a support zone that has not been broken on the pullback. Entering directly is more prudent than placing pending orders. The upper target is the resistance wall at 87011, which is a recent clear resistance level; the stop loss below should be set at the high-volume trading area (POC) at 84051. A break below this point would invalidate the pullback support logic. The main risk is that short-term active selling is still flowing out, and liquidation magnets point downward. If 84051 is effectively broken, the bullish structure needs to be reassessed.