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$XRP is bearish, down 3.44% in 24h, indicating that long leverage positions have been squeezed out, but not completely. Liquidations are almost one-sided: long positions at $6.01 million, shorts only $390,000. Shorts paid no price, indicating no decent rebound during the decline. However, $6.01 million is just a fraction compared to the $470 million contract open interest; most leverage remains in the market, and these longs that haven't exited are the fuel for the next move. Funding rates have flipped positive and negative three times, showing neither side is crowded, so it doesn't provide directional clues. The chart shows "higher highs, upward structure intact," which is true, but this premise depends on holding the previous low. The current price 1.4853 is closer to 1.4425 than to 1.5552, so the structure is being tested, not confirmed. Judgment: first break below 1.4425 to make a new low. Bullish reversal condition: if 1.4425 holds and price climbs back above 1.5552, this judgment is void.📅 October 3 — $ETH Market Daily Report | Post-NFP Volatility, Range Battle Continues Last night’s nonfarm payrolls release triggered a sharp roller coaster in Ethereum. $ETH is currently trading around $2,680. On the 1-hour chart, price surged toward $2,777 before dropping quickly to around $2,646, followed by a recovery. The 1H MACD is still showing green bars, suggesting short-term momentum remains volatile and pullback pressure hasn’t completely disappeared. On the 4-hour chart, ETH remains ETH at $2680, what are you panicking about?
Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly increased by only 29,000, ETH surged to 2778 but was slammed back to 2680, with a wave of liquidations in 24 hours — yet 39.7 million ETH are firmly locked in staking on-chain, yielding 3.2%. Is this move a fake breakout escape or a violent shakeout?
First, look at the surface: a spike followed by a pullback, retail investors are panicking again.
On October 2, ETH hit 2778, everyone thought it would break 2800, but a bearish candle slammed it back to 2650, and today it’s hovering around 2680. It dropped 2% in 24 hours, moving in sync with BTC, no independent crash or rally. The 7-day moving average is closely followed, and volume is lukewarm.
What does the candlestick tell you?
The daily chart is still above all moving averages, the 50-day moving average is above the 200-day, RSI is strong at 60. It’s up 7% in 30 days, lifted from 2500.
But the 4-hour chart looks a bit ugly — 2680 is below the pivot at 2700, short-term control is in the bears’ hands.
In short: daily bulls are alive, but short-term is suppressed.
First thing: ETFs have started paying out, but the market hasn’t caught on yet.
Do you know what ETH ETFs are doing now?
Paying staking rewards.
BlackRock’s ETHB has a staking ratio of 70%-90%. Grayscale’s ETHE has a staking ratio of 81%, with a net yield of 2.05%.
In plain terms:
Previously, buying ETH ETFs only gave you price appreciation. Now, buying ETH ETFs lets you earn interest passively. A 2% passive yield — what does that equate to in traditional finance? It’s like a high-yield savings account with an embedded call option on ETH’s upside.
But the market reaction?
Cold.
Why? Because retail only looks at candlesticks, not on-chain data. Institutions focus on the “yield anchor,” retail focuses on “did it go up today.”
That’s the gap.
Second thing: EIP-8363 was withdrawn, but this is actually a short-term positive.
Ethereum core developers removed EIP-8363 from the Fusaka roadmap. This proposal was originally intended to gradually reduce issuance as staking rates rise, moving toward "zero yield."
Sounds technical? Here’s why it matters:
If EIP-8363 passed, staking yields would be suppressed, reducing ETF appeal.
Now that it’s withdrawn, it means:
39.7 million ETH staked network-wide, accounting for 32% of supply
Composite yield steady at 3.1%-3.3%
ETF and lending market yield anchors remain stable for now
For lending markets priced by staking rates, this is a short-term positive. With yield anchors stable, capital won’t flee.
Third thing: technicals are stuck at a critical level, waiting for a breakout on one side.
2680 is an awkward spot.
Resistance above: 2698-2715 (daily first resistance + pivot) → 2754-2778 (previous highs) → 2809-2830
Support below: 2660 → 2630-2628 (box lower edge) → 2575 → 2530
Daily ATR is about $85. What does that mean? It’s normal to hit 2750 or 2575 within a day, with many fake breakouts.
Currently, 2680 is below the pivot at 2700, near the lower middle of the box.
Don’t chase longs or shorts. Wait for a valid 4-hour breakout on one side before adding positions.
Bull vs. bear showdown, here’s what you see:
On the bullish side:
Daily bullish structure intact, price above major moving averages
ETF staking rewards have started distributing, institutional yield anchors stable
39.7 million ETH locked in staking, selling pressure locked away
RSI at 60 in strong zone, 7% gain in 30 days, upward trend
Macro: rate hike probability falling, risk appetite neutral to slightly bullish
On the bearish side:
4-hour below pivot, short-term control with bears
Failed surge to 2778 on October 2, trapped longs overhead
10-year US Treasury yield rebounded to 5.27%, suppressing risk assets
Macro pricing volatile ahead of October 14 inflation data
BTC stuck in 83000-87200 box, no clear direction
Trading strategy (perpetual perspective, no fluff):
Inside the box (recommended for most):
2680 below pivot, near lower middle of box. Don’t chase longs or shorts.
If rebound to 2715-2758 is resisted and 4-hour candle closes below → light short, stop loss above 2785, targets 2660/2630
If pullback to 2630-2650 shows long lower shadow indicating support → scale in longs, stop loss below 2610, targets 2715/2750
Breakout trades:
4-hour close above 2778 with volume → target 2810-2830, stop loss if closes back below 2740
Daily close below 2630 without recovery → short targets 2575/2530
Correlation conditions:
If BTC breaks below 83100 effectively, ETH’s 2630 support likely fails, reduce leverage.
Before October 14 inflation data, range trading is suitable, avoid high leverage overnight.
Single trade risk control within 1% of account. Survive to qualify for the next wave.
2680 is neither bottom nor top; it’s a level where "you must think carefully before getting on board."
Daily bulls remain, but short-term suppressed. ETFs are paying, staking is locking tokens, yield steady at 3.2%.
What you should do is not bet on direction but wait for a breakout on one side, then follow.
The market’s biggest fear isn’t volatility, it’s mistaking a shakeout for a crash.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Let's first look at the technical side. ETH is quoted at $2680, closely hugging the 7-day SMA at $2685, almost perfectly overlapping. This is no coincidence; short-term momentum has hit a ceiling. But looking at the bigger picture, the structure isn't broken — the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages stand at $2637, $2484, and $2116 respectively, all below the current price. The 200-day line is nearly $560 below the current price, indicating a bullish consolidation rather than distribution. The MACD histogram has returned to zero, buying pressure is stalling, and the Bollinger Band middle line at $2637 is the real battleground. If the daily close falls below it, short-term weakness will set in. The first resistance above is at $2754; below, if $2628 breaks, the next stop is $2576. On the news front, there is a warning sign. Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 10 consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA adding $83.79 million in a single day, totaling over $12.9 billion in cumulative net inflows. However, derivatives data shows retail traders' long-to-short ratio is as high as 2.93, with 74.6% of accounts betting on a rise, while top traders' long positions are only 62.4%. When retail traders overwhelmingly go long, the market tends to first sweep down to trigger stop losses before moving up. ETH rose about 71% in Q3, and institutional capital inflow logic remains unchanged, but this short-term positioning structure is uncomfortable. My approach: neither chase nor rush to buy. If the $2637 middle line holds and ETFs keep buying, I hold my base position; if the daily close breaks below $2628, I reduce half. I avoid contracts and keep total exposure controlled. ETH has risen so much this round; a washout before continuing is healthy.$SUI is showing a healthy consolidation phase after a significant rally from 0.6726 to a high of 1.2939. The price is currently holding above the MA5 (1.1665) and MA10 (1.1637) which act as dynamic support.
The 30-day and 90-day gains (+52% and +57%) highlight its strong underlying trend. The recent news about Suilend discontinuing token issuance may introduce short-term uncertainty, but the technical structure remains bullish. I predict SUI will range between 1.15 and 1.25 in the short term. BTC and ETH spot ETFs have simultaneously seen outflows these past two days, which can indeed cause some panic.
But don't rush to interpret this directly as "institutional withdrawal."
Among the previous continuous inflows, there were quite a few arbitrage funds locking positions in spot + futures to earn the basis. Now that the price spread has narrowed and profits have thinned, it's normal for arbitrage positions to exit.
What really deserves attention is whether the outflows will continue.
A single day could just be a cooling off of funds; several consecutive days are more worrisome.
Do you think this time it's just arbitrage funds settling, or have institutions really started to reduce their holdings? #USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease 【Crypto Circle Script】
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
I'm Script Bro. After the non-farm payrolls came out last night, BTC didn't celebrate; instead, it steadily declined, which is quite interesting.
Many people ask, with such poor employment data, shouldn't it be good for rate cuts and good for BTC?
Here's the problem: weak data doesn't equal mindless bullishness.
Non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market's first reaction was indeed a reduced pressure for rate hikes.
But the second reaction came immediately: is employment weakness a bit too much?
The market prefers "economic cooling," not "economic shutdown."
The former means the Fed can ease up; the latter means recession risks are emerging.
So BTC's movement last night was very typical.
The data first triggered trading on expectations of policy easing, then funds started recalculating the economic outlook, and BTC slid from around 87,000 to about 84,000.
It's like the boss says there might be no more overtime, and everyone is about to applaud, but suddenly realizes it's because the company lost orders.
Can you still smile?
So now the market's real dilemma is no longer "whether the Fed will hike rates," but whether the US economy can achieve a soft landing.
Too strong data fears rate hikes; too weak data fears recession.
The most comfortable is actually a sluggish, gradual cooling.
Do you think last night's steady decline was a shakeout, or has the market already started pricing in a recession?
Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🌃 Saturday night: BTC at the 87,000 threshold, holding five coins over the weekend for peace of mind
$BTC 86868, once the non-farm payroll hits 29,000, it will push to the 87,000 threshold. This week it has rallied all the way up from 8400. Although ETFs are seeing outflows, retail sentiment is extremely strong, and funds are charging ahead regardless. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so the 87,000 level will only be decided on Monday.
$OKB 122.66, BTC rose 3% this week while it only rose 1%, a grind but the safest to hold. Locked volume continues to rise, buybacks have never stopped, and the overseas stablecoin plan is truly landing, directly benefiting OKX. At the 122 level, downside space is limited, with room to the previous high.
$ZEC 1390, up 0.85%, bounced from 1388 but hasn't passed 1400 yet. Privacy coins were oversold in this wave and have recovered half of the losses; 1500 remains a heavy resistance zone. After the non-farm surprise, the market bounced but ZEC bounced less, indicating it’s not on the main market trend, but conversely, it also hasn’t fallen much.
$RE 0.50662, the market rose but it fell 1.31%, being siphoned off. DeFi insurance plus RWA dual narratives, 0.5 has held for a month without breaking, indicating buying support underneath. This week funds all chased BTC and hot spots, no one cared about small coins; 0.48 is the bottom line, if broken, reconsider the logic.
$BICO 0.02241, has been moving sideways around 0.022 this week. The long-term story of the account abstraction sector remains, but short-term there’s no catalyst or fund attention. If 0.02 doesn’t break, hold on; don’t cut losses here to switch to BTC, it’s easy to get hit from both sides. Migo’s take on the non-farm payrolls: the latest data could significantly weaken expectations for an October rate hike. After going through the report, one thing immediately stood out to me: the revisions are unusually important. July’s job growth was revised from +21K to -10K, while August was revised from 162K to 133K. Combined, those revisions reduced previously reported job gains by around 60K. Then came September’s headline number: just 29K new jobs, versus expectations of around 90K — a suI have to admit, I was completely wrong yesterday — honestly, I was just lucky. I went all-in with 100x isolated leverage, and overnight $ETH suddenly pumped hard. The mark price reached $2,777.7, while my stop-loss was sitting at $2,778.5. Just $0.8 away. For a moment, it felt like the price was literally about to touch my stop. I was so nervous I could barely breathe. But then the move reversed almost immediately. What looked like a breakout turned into a sharp rejection, and ETH dropped all tThe Middle East situation continues to impact the crypto market
Many probably got hit by the rollercoaster on the night of the non-farm payrolls.
Long positions at BTC 86000, ETH 2690, and some small coins all got trapped.
After the data release, prices first surged, then plunged immediately after news of a commercial ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz, putting leveraged positions under instant pressure.
From a macro perspective:
US Treasury yields, Middle East geopolitics, and ETF capital inflows are simultaneously influencing the current market.
No guessing big surges or crashes now, just focus on key supports:
BTC 83500, ETH 2580.
Holding these levels still offers a chance for recovery; once broken decisively, high leverage positions must prioritize reducing exposure to survive.
The market won't fully follow expectations, so while holding positions, be sure to set your defensive bottom line.
What are your recent positions? Let's discuss together
$BTC $ETH $SNDK The recent hype around $ZEC is gradually fading. Data shows that its spot ETF has experienced a massive capital outflow, with a single-day net outflow reaching as high as $26.93 million.
Looking back at this round of privacy coin market activity, it was largely driven by ETF capital inflows. The large-scale involvement of institutional funds once strongly pushed up the price of ZEC. The current large-scale redemptions indicate that some profit-taking institutions have started to cash out.
However, it should be clarified that despite the obvious single-day capital outflow, the historical cumulative net inflow still reached $213 million. This indicates that funds have not fully withdrawn, and currently, it is mainly short-term funds realizing profits.别人谈恋爱告白失败哭，我伤心时候杠杆拉×1000倍！！ 别人失恋，哭一场，喝顿酒，发几条朋友圈，第二天还能擦干眼泪继续上班。我失恋，打开交易所，把杠杆拉到1000倍，然后眼睁睁看着自己的仓位在几秒钟内被市场一根针扎爆。这就是差距。 不是我想这样，是情绪上来的时候，理智根本拦不住。告白失败，最多是心碎。杠杆拉满，是本金碎、账户碎、心态一起碎。你以为你在交易，其实你是在用钱给情绪买单。 1000倍杠杆是什么概念？BTC价格波动0.1%，你的仓位就归零。0.1%，在币圈连“波动”都算不上，充其量叫“呼吸”。可就是这一口呼吸，能把你的全部本金吹得一干二净。你还没反应过来，交易所已经给你发了强制平仓的通知。那封通知的冷漠程度，比拒绝你的那个人还要绝情。 更讽刺的是，你本来只是想“赚一点”，结果变成了“亏全部”。你本来只是想从伤心里走出来，结果掉进了更深的坑。失恋是别人让你难受，爆仓是你自己让自己难受，而且代价贵得多。 有人说，失恋最好的疗伤方式是时间和新欢。我想说，在币圈，最好的疗伤方式是不碰合约。现货拿着，至少币还在。合约爆了，连回忆都没了。 所以，下次再伤心，别拉杠杆。去跑步，去睡觉，去吃点On the weekend evening, I opened the macro ledger and checked it once again — September nonfarm payrolls only increased by about 29,000, far below the consensus of 90,000; the odds of a rate hike in October were crushed to around 20%, with a 70-80% chance of holding steady. Yet the US Dollar Index still closed around 101.91 on Friday, and the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at about 5.28%, with long-term rates not collapsing along with the soft employment data.
Spot $BTC is around 84,787, slightly down from Shanghai's midnight open at 85,330; the daily high touched 87,238, the daily low 83,884, and the surge to 87,000 on nonfarm night has mostly retraced. $ETH is around 2,686. In the short term, watch if 85,000 can be reclaimed; if it falls back to around 84,100, don't try to hold on stubbornly.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #Nonfarm #Fed #DXY #Macro #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice, the market carries risks, please be cautious when entering.$BTC is facing strong resistance around $86,800, and the upward pressure appears to be fading. Bullish momentum is weakening, while fresh liquidity isn’t keeping pace. With liquidity typically thinner during the National Day holiday, I’m expecting the market to remain relatively choppy. For now, I’m staying cautious and leaning bearish, with a closer look after the holiday. $ETH is moving largely in sync with BTC. Ethereum appears slightly stronger, but not by a significant margin, and it remain$ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1317.91, currently at 1312.19, floating profit +21.70%.
The logic is simple: the 1320 whole number resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, showing clear top characteristics. Finally waited for a bearish candle to short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1330. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Trailing stop moved up to 1320 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks below 1300, can hold on a bit longer.
$ETH $SOL #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 This week the account experienced big ups and downs, reaching a high of 6076, then pulling back to 5235, like riding a roller coaster.
Let's talk about the current positions:
AMD short position is currently the only profitable one, with an unrealized gain of 14.41%. The bearish call at this high level was on point, the forced liquidation price is still far away, so the safety margin is thick.
HYPE long position is slightly losing, but the loss is controllable, still waiting for a rebound opportunity.
NFLX Netflix long position is suffering a heavy loss, with an unrealized loss of 43.19%. This is the biggest loss source this week, directly eating up most of the profits.
Lessons learned:
Greed at the top without taking profits leads to quick profit erosion when the market pulls back. Also, holding heavy positions against the trend causes losses to keep expanding.
Next plan: Hold on to profitable positions firmly, no longer blindly add to losing positions, strictly control position size, prioritize protecting principal, and avoid gambling on a big bet.
For those trading US stock contracts recently, which trade hurt you the most?I think I’m starting to see how this market could unfold. I’m still holding my $BTC short. Right now, the market feels heavily bullish. Some traders are holding onto longs, while others chased the move around $87K and are now stuck. I’m taking the opposite approach. With the current macro backdrop and US Treasury yields pushing higher, I’m not convinced crypto can continue climbing without a meaningful correction first. My expectation is that BTC could see a deeper pullback, taking back some of The moment the margin popup appears, your fingers are always faster than your brain; whether to add or cut, you press within half a second, palms sweaty.
Once leverage is on, watching the market becomes about guarding one thing: whether the margin can hold. Even if the market is quiet, you have to be present every day; a small fluctuation requires an immediate decision to add or reduce, a delay means someone else decides for you. You can wait if you hold spot wrong, but you can't wait if you hold leverage wrong.
Money is not all the same. Spot money is confident; if the market doesn't move, you just lie low, waiting three months or even half a year is fine. Borrowed money, money you need to use immediately, money pressed into leverage—all have their own timelines. First, settle the money accounts clearly; matters of direction come after. If the market doesn't come for a day, don't release the pressed money for a day; the reason you get kicked out has nothing to do with whether you predicted right or wrong.
I set a rule for myself: calculate the timeframe before the direction. Before taking action, answer this: when does this money need to leave? Only if you can answer that can you discuss how much to open; if you can't, no matter how favorable the market looks, don't touch it.
The higher the leverage, the more a normal fluctuation becomes a fatal wound. The same lower shadow candle is called volatility by spot traders, but called liquidation by leveraged traders. As for those who immediately compare leverage multiples, they're testing who can endure pain better; it has nothing to do with accuracy.
$SOL This market fluctuation isn't gentle; spot holders can hold through the swings and life goes on. Leveraged holders, with the same swings, are gambling each time that it won't be their turn.
Think clearly about how long you can wait before using leverage; if you can't figure it out, let this money lie idle—spot can afford to wait. 8 PM, the tea on the table is still steaming hot.
$ONE 10x short position, floating profit +497.04%.
Opening average price 0.0040441, mark price 0.002034.
The previous rally was entirely driven by sentiment.
RSI surged all the way into the overbought zone, but trading volume kept shrinking.
MACD red bars continuously narrowed, DIF slope turned downward.
The market looks lively, but the upward momentum has long been exhausted.
When many were chasing the rally to enter, I had already placed short orders.
Moved the stop loss to the cost line to protect the principal baseline.
Trading is not about frequent moves, but about understanding turning points.
When the tide recedes, that's when profits are realized.
$ZEC $BTC The original believer $LAB fled at the last moment 😰
Looking at it today, he still ran fast enough
Otherwise, the outcome would have been 60,000 turning into 6,000 😂
Why did this happen?
Because back then, everyone was all-in with $CORE, thinking they hit the bottom gold 🤓
And at that time, they were especially flashy, showing off everywhere 😎 I am the ten-thousand-coin lord
Later, $BICO from the all-in tens of thousands didn't do well
Cut losses and exited around 60,000 😰
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Brothers, I just came across some news, gotta share it with you all quickly!
A $ENA whale who has been dormant for a whole year suddenly resurrected today! The moment they moved, they transferred 30 million ENA tokens to the exchange, worth about 6.98 million USD.
After sleeping for a year, they just woke up and moved millions of dollars worth of coins to the exchange — the intention is pretty obvious, right? Usually, when a whale of this scale deposits to an exchange, it’s highly likely they’re preparing to cash out and dump. But on the other hand, 30 million is just a fraction of their total holdings. Could it be they’re just testing the market depth first?
The market is already tough right now, and this move by the big player is like hanging a sword over everyone’s heads. If they slowly start dumping all 157 million tokens, how can us small holders possibly withstand it… #SEC New Crypto Asset Custody Rules, Proposed Relaxation of Institutional Self-Custody Restrictions
The leader has something to say
The SEC has issued new custody rules, proposing to relax restrictions on institutional self-custody.
The core point is simple. Registered investment advisers who meet security measures, insurance, and independent audits can self-custody clients' crypto assets. Qualified state-chartered trust companies can also act as custodians. Previously, institutions faced complicated processes and high thresholds for compliant custody; now the path is being streamlined.
I believe this lowers the last barrier for institutions to enter. With custody issues resolved, operational risks for institutions allocating crypto assets are reduced. This is a long-term positive.
But don't expect it to pump prices. The rules are still in the proposal stage; after publication in the Federal Register, there will be a 60-day comment period, so implementation is still far off. It does not constitute short-term buying pressure. The market still follows macro trends: nonfarm payroll data was broadly below expectations, rate hike expectations have cooled, but long-term US Treasury yields remain above 5.6%, so pressure persists. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Yesterday, I took a long position on Bitcoin at 86000 and opened a short at 86500. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. The new custody rules do not change my short-term trading rhythm. Position sizing is controlled, no heavy exposure.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Good evening, $GRASS has been short for two days now, currently floating at a loss of 3.8 points.
There hasn't been a big crash as expected, nor have I seen momentum for a continued surge. It's just a high-level sideways grind that wears you down. But I still think shorting here has a higher probability of success.
$GRASS has risen nearly 20%~50% in the last 7 days (data varies across exchanges), and the 30-day increase is close to doubling, which has already overextended a lot of sentiment in the short term. More importantly, there is an early investor token unlock at the end of October, which historically tends to bring selling pressure. The downside space is much larger than the upside.
I set my stop loss at 20%; if it hits that loss, I accept it. Futures contracts shouldn't be held through heavy losses; staying alive is key for the next wave.
Is anyone else watching GRASS? Let's chat in the comments—are you still short or have you already exited? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Live Trading Record | Challenge Failed, Trading Bottleneck — Is ZEC Really Going to Break Me? One thing I’ve learned from this recent stretch: when losses keep piling up, stubbornly holding on or rushing to recover usually makes things worse. Most of my recent positions are underwater, and honestly, it’s frustrating. It feels like I’ve hit a real trading bottleneck. $XRP Long — Average entry: 1.5098 | Current: 1.4851 | Floating loss: 16.35% The original plan was to buy the dips, but the market c$BTC perpetual 100x long position, opened at 84545.9, now at 84800.3, floating profit +30.09%.
I've actually been watching this position for quite a while. The 84500 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 100x leverage, the position size is pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +30.09%, and the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 84600. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Woke up to the sky falling.
$PEPE made over $480 yesterday but I didn’t sell, now I’m down over $300. Every time I open and close my eyes, the money’s gone. I originally thought to wait a bit longer for it to rise more, but waiting only brought disappointment. Now looking at the negative sign in my account, my heart is bleeding.
Calming down to reflect, one must not be greedy, knowing contentment in trading and staying true to oneself is the most important.
$BTC $ETH
#The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, cooling capital heat
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved Damn, what a “whale” — more like a whale who finally gave up.
He accumulated 6,500 $ETH around $3,040 in 2025, once sitting on a $9.55M+ unrealized loss.
After holding for a year, he deposited 6,595 ETH (~$17.57M) to an exchange, realizing a $2.44M loss.
Survived the darkest part, then exited just before the rebound. Brutal.
#USNFPDataCools
#BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease $CT perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.5156, currently 0.507, floating profit +33.35%.
0.51 resistance is firm; every time it approaches this level, it feels like there's selling pressure holding it down. I believe the top has been confirmed, will short directly on a bearish candle. 20x leverage, very small position, stop loss at 0.52.
Currently +33.35%, moving stop loss to 0.51. Profit secured, staying calm.
$ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #TheUSIranSituation remains tense, with the G7 reportedly preparing to release up to 100 million barrels from strategic reserves. I’m looking at this from a mid-term macro perspective. Despite the headline sounding dramatic, the bigger picture is more nuanced: the reserve release is essentially a political response to inflation pressures while putting pressure on fuel spreads and refining margins. If those 100 million barrels are distributed over roughly four months, that works out to a little oAfter the non-farm payroll data came out yesterday, it was positive for the crypto market, but I have always emphasized that news is always serving the market and is merely a tool to hunt for contract leverage. Prologue: After clearing the short positions above, $BTC formed a small double top. The short-term correction should continue, with a focus on support between 80,000 and 82,000, $ETH attention on the area between 2,560 and 2,610. If support holds and there is further gain, the market will become even more complicated going forward. So, what orders are you opening now?This 30x position almost didn't make it through.
At 5 AM on October 3rd, $WLD dropped to 0.5264, with an unrealized loss of -66.3%.😱
If it had dropped a little more, I would have been wiped out.
That dip was eventually recovered. I still remember those few minutes staring at the screen.
Later it climbed all the way to 0.6077, a 40-day high.🔥
Going 30x isn't about being reckless. Its 24-hour volatility is 15.44%, which isn't crazy. $SAND on the same day had 41.52%, with that kind of volatility I would have had to exit halfway through.
The awkward part now is that 0.6077 is the highest point in this cycle, with no reference going higher.🤔
Add on a breakout, cut half if it breaks below 0.5739 first.
Do you think it’s still worth holding? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Nonfarm payrolls landed, BTC surged then pulled back
BTC peaked at 87238, then quickly plunged
Currently fluctuating around 84600
Nonfarm employment data slowed
But not enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates immediately
Institutional funds choose to take profits, selling pressure appears
MA20 moving average suppresses the market, short-term enters consolidation digestion
Resistance above: 86000-87000
Support below: 83800
Short-term strategy:
Do not chase the rise, do not heavily speculate
In a volatile market, heavy positions are easily hit back and forth $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The $HYPE buyback fangs have shown today.
HYPE is now at $88, down 2% in 24 hours, down 4% in a week, retreating nearly 10% from the all-time high of 97.96 on September 23, but don’t just look at the pullback.
On October 3, the AQAv2 framework officially took effect. Hyperliquid directed the first batch of Circle USDC reserve yields into the aid fund to buy back HYPE on the market. Analysts calculated that this new money will add another $135 million to $160 million annually for buybacks, on top of the original $771 million buyback from trading fees, pushing the total annual buyback to over $900 million. The platform has $500 million to $550 million USDC earning interest, effectively adding a money-printing machine that doesn’t rely on trading volume.
Previously, buybacks relied entirely on fees, strong in bull markets and weak in bear markets. Now, stablecoin interest is also used for burning, effectively giving HYPE a dual-engine boost. Grayscale’s HYPG ETF is also continuously attracting funds, adding another $3.4 million on October 2.
The drop from 98 to 86 is not a shakeout but a real pullback. RSI is weakening; 86 is support, 84 is the bottom line, and breaking below that will head to 80. The new buyback flow depends on USDC interest rates, so if rates really drop, this money will shrink too.
Hold 86 and watch for 91.5; reduce positions if it breaks 84.
HYPE uses all stablecoin interest for burning, with buybacks fiercer than most listed companies, but don’t get caught up in short-term pullbacks. $ONE perpetual 10x short position, opened at 0.0021253, currently 0.0020337, floating profit +43.09%.
The logic is simple: the 0.00212 whole number resistance was tested three times without breaking, volume decreased, clear top pattern. Finally waited for a bearish candle to short. 10x leverage, stop loss at 0.00215. The movement is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Trailing stop moved up to 0.0021 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks below 0.0020, can hold a bit longer.
$ETH $BTC #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 #BTC, ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital heat
Currently, there are already 14 short positions
13 of them are in profit
Considering closing 4 positions to keep only 10
Now not sure which ones to close
Feels like all will drop
$ZEC I don't want to touch it for now
Want to see if it can drop back below 1000
$HYPE decline is not obvious, profit hasn't reached yet
There should still be a lot of room for further decline
Can't touch it for now either
No need to move positions on BTC and ETH, positions are small, better to use for T trading
$SOON previously sprinted to a high point with a 30-point loss
Now it's profitable, this one can be considered
The others are still hard to choose特朗普5000美元“分红”是骗局还是承诺？加密市场会暴涨吗？ 最近，美国前总统特朗普在中期选举造势活动中抛出一个重磅承诺：如果共和党赢得中期选举，将向每一位美国公民发放5000美元的“特朗普分红”。按照美国约3.16亿人口计算，总规模可能高达1.58万亿美元。消息一出，加密社区迅速沸腾，不少人高呼“市场要暴涨了”。 但冷静下来看，这更像是一个为选举量身定制的政治承诺，而不是一个经过严谨财政规划的政策提案。它兑现的可能性极低，对加密市场的影响也更可能是短期情绪催化，而非长期基本面改变。 首先，法律上就行不通。美国宪法将联邦支出的权力赋予国会。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊已经明确表示，这项提案需要国会批准。当特朗普声称可能不需要国会授权时，约翰逊的回应直接否定了这一说法。这意味着，即使共和党赢得选举，提案也必须经过复杂的立法程序，而当前国会内部对此存在明显分歧，部分共和党人已公开表示反对。 其次，钱从哪里来？这是最核心的问题。美国约有2.4亿至2.5亿成年公民，每人5000美元意味着总成本超过1.2万亿美元。特朗普本人没有提供任何融资方案。副总统万斯曾暗示可能动用关税收入，但分析显示，关税收入远The ETF data these past two days is quite striking, with the ETFs of BTC and ETH simultaneously seeing outflows.
The whole screen is asking if institutions have fled.
Let me tell you something many people don't know. During that previous streak of nine consecutive days of net inflows, a large portion of that money didn't care about price fluctuations. Were institutions bullish and accumulating? Not entirely.
What kind of money? Arbitrage funds. The strategy is like this: buy the ETF spot with one hand, short in the futures market with the other, locking both ends to earn the spread in between. Price movements don't matter to them; they only profit from the spread, not betting on direction.
Now the data is in, the basis has narrowed, no more profit, and these players have packed up and left. A large part of the ETF outflows is them settling and exiting. Many people are analyzing the fundamentals based on the phrase "institutional retreat," which means they are studying the wrong subject.
So don't panic. The players eating the seats and those holding for the long term have never been the same group. The arbitrage funds leaving doesn't mean a long-term bearish outlook; it just means this round of spread trading is over.
So what should we watch? Whether the outflows continue. One day is just leaving the seat; three consecutive days would be a retreat. It's only the first day now, so why panic?
It's normal for ETH to fall first; when money withdraws, those with higher elasticity always sell first. This is not bad news for ETH, it's just ETH's nature.
For everyone holding BTC and ETH, do you plan to follow the arbitrage funds out or keep holding?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 📊 Mid-Term: Cautiously Bullish
$ETH faces ETF outflows and network risks, but record staking and Citi’s higher target support the upside case.
$BTC/$ETH ETF flows have turned negative, signaling softer institutional demand.
👀 Watch ETF flows + staking trends.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
It feels like a black swan is always hanging overhead, ready to dive down at any moment
#10.11了
#经济环境恼火The contract address remaining unchanged does not mean the underlying logic will never change.
Many applications use proxy contracts to store user entry points and states, then forward calls to upgradeable implementation contracts. The address users see remains the same for a long time, but administrators may change the execution logic. Upgradeability facilitates fixing vulnerabilities and adding features, but it can also be exploited by malicious permissions or change the rules users originally accepted after governance votes. To determine if a contract is "immutable," one must not only check the address but also consider the proxy type, administrators, timelocks, and implementation versions. For $ETH users, using an upgradeable protocol means trusting both the current code and the upgrade process simultaneously. Mature designs should disclose changes, allow exit periods, and limit administrator powers; if upgrades can be completed instantly and funds cannot be withdrawn, the risk is much higher than what the interface shows. On-chain records cannot be arbitrarily deleted, but that does not mean every application logic is permanently frozen.
If upgrade governance is controlled by a few keys, the protocol risk is tied to those keys. Timelocks, multisig decentralization, and emergency permission caps are all criteria users use to judge whether they can safely exit. Changes in implementation addresses should trigger a full re-audit rather than automatically inheriting existing trust relationships and conclusions.Trump told Time magazine in an interview that "a certain degree of inflation will also very quickly repay debt." The U.S. federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion, Bitcoin has risen about 300% from its 2023 low, but is still about 30% below the $126,000 peak.
In my opinion, using inflation to erase debt is indeed a slick move: the creditor's money becomes thinner, while the ledger of the currency holder thickens. In the same game, who pays for whom is clear when you flip through your wallet.😇
$BTC $ETHThe most representative mentality in the comments these past two days is waiting. Waiting 60,000, waiting 70,000, thinking buying now is too expensive. I don't really agree with this waiting. The structure of Bitcoin holders has changed; most of the shares are now in the hands of institutions and big players, who won't give retail investors many opportunities to buy the dip. When you wait for 60,000 or 70,000 and the price rises from 60,000 to 80,000, these people still don't buy, and most likely won't buy next. The result of waiting is often missing the entire cycle. Some people ask if they bought too little because they're too focused on gains and losses. This idea is unnecessary; if you think it's too little, just add now and buy without leverage. I don't think you'll regret this position. Some people only bought a third of their spot holdings and want to use low leverage to boost profits. The order is reversed, and since they haven't even finished buying spot, don't even think about leverage. As for positions, my advice has always been to focus on spot trading and use small-multiple contracts for the rest. If you want to take the long term, try not to do swing trading or buy low when selling high. You have to be able to accept profit-taking before you can hold on. As soon as you see a drawdown, start calculating how much you could have made, then think about closing the high and buying at the low. If you calculate too much, you basically can't hold onto your position. As for storage, I keep it in my wallet, not on exchanges. It's not that exchanges will definitely have problems, but in case of emergencies, keeping it in your wallet is obviously safer. If you want to hold it, put it on Bitcoin's native chain; don't just put it on another chain for convenience—that doesn't count as truly holding your hands. Back to the market. This wave dropped from above 87,200 and broke below 84,000. Many people interpret it as weakening, but I think it's quite the opposite. Here's the water$BTC
The $87K zone looks like a classic long trap, with late buyers potentially providing exit liquidity.
Expect some choppy and unpredictable price action over the weekend, while the lower-timeframe bias remains unchanged.
I’m still scaling into the new short position.
❌ Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above $89K
🎯 Target range: $79K–$83K
Patience and confirmation remain key.$SAND perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.0758, currently at 0.07317, floating profit +173.48%.
After a failed surge near 0.075, a large bearish candle directly broke the support, so I followed the trend to short, with a stop loss set above 0.076. The 50x leverage position is very small; the movement was weaker than expected, and the percentage loss was nearly doubled!
Moved the stop loss up to 0.074, now watching to see if 0.07 can be broken.
$ETH $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% "Nonfarm Hammer, BTC and ETH Diverge"
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000; July-August combined revisions cut 60,000, with July turning negative outright. Once the data was released, BTC first broke out of its consolidation range then fell back, with over 570 million liquidated in 24 hours, cutting both sides of traders.
Regardless of the data's authenticity, the situation is indeed changing: the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 5.18%, oil prices declined, and rate hike expectations shifted to December. Risk assets have gotten a breather.
But capital divergence is deepening. BTC spot ETFs saw an inflow of 102.7 million on Thursday, IBIT alone shouldered nearly 200 million, ending outflows; ETH ETFs have outflowed for three consecutive days, totaling over 110 million in three days. The narrative of a strong BTC and weak ETH is still strengthening.
The SEC hasn’t been idle either: a 760-page new custody rule allows institutions to self-custody crypto assets, and together with the CFTC issued a joint statement clarifying that spot digital commodities can be traded on registered exchanges. Regulatory infrastructure is being built incrementally.
With thin liquidity over the weekend and the National Day holiday, the recovery rally will likely be on low volume. Don’t mistake a rebound for a reversal; wait for volume to return next week.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Buying the dip: You can start positioning between 81,000 and 82,000
I prefer to see this downward drop as a dip-buying opportunity.
The mid-to-long-term support is at the bottom of the range, below 82,000 or around 81,000. 81,000 was last week's weekly open price and also the starting point of this upward move. The target is 96,000, which is the result after I recalculated the bullish extension for this segment.
Just hold steady in spot; don't get scared out by the wicks these past few days.
Will you start building your position here? $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% U.S. stock trading is about to move to 23/5!!
Nasdaq plans to add a night trading session starting December 6, which will enable U.S. stocks to be traded 23 hours a day, 5 days a week.
Previously, the most direct advantage of HIP-3 was that while traditional markets were closed, trading could still happen on-chain. For example, we also trade U.S. stock contracts without being limited by market opening hours.
But now that TradFi is moving towards 24/7 trading, the scarcity of the 24/7 trading selling point decreases.
Therefore, the next phase of HIP-3's value and advantage may need to be found beyond just trading hours... $SNDK $MU $BTC panic index dropped to 5, an extreme level in history.
The lowest was 5 in 2019, when Bitcoin struggled around $10,000 before starting a rally to $20,000; in 2022, the lowest was 6, with the LUNA crash and Three Arrows Capital collapse, Bitcoin stabilized only after repeatedly bottoming between $17,000 and $20,000. This time the panic index is back to 5, and BTC quickly pulled back from $57,800 with clear support at the low.
But the panic index only indicates extreme pessimism, it does not mean the price has bottomed. After reaching 5 in 2019, the market fluctuated for several months before starting; after reaching 6 in 2022, BTC also struggled around $20,000 until the end of the year before breaking out of the bottom.
To confirm whether $57,800 is the major bottom, we need to see if the pullback can hold, if ETF funds can continue to flow back, and if BTC can regain a stable mid-to-long-term structure. Currently, there are positive signals from ETFs, with about $2.98 billion net inflow over 7 consecutive trading days in mid-September, and the cumulative net inflow for the year has turned positive again, showing institutional support.
But sentiment and funds are only necessary conditions, not sufficient ones. Historical major bottoms often form quietly when no one dares to believe. If $57,800 gives no more chances, this extreme panic will indeed be very interesting.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Non-farm payroll data fell far short of expectations. Interestingly, BTC and ETH markets fell instead of rising, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained high.
Comparing the non-farm data from August and September, the difference is like night and day. US September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000; August's new jobs were also revised down from the previously announced 162,000 to 133,000. Logically, this should be bullish for crypto and commodities and bearish for the dollar and US Treasuries, but the market behaved exactly the opposite.
$BTC surged instantly from 86,000 to a high of 87,200 right after the data release, triggering a chase-up-then-sell-off move. After hitting resistance, it quickly fell back, and today the market has been heavily suppressed by bears, oscillating around 84,000.
$ETH showed strong support below. It dropped from yesterday's high of 2,777 to a low near 2,640 support level, then stabilized and oscillated upward to around 2,680. It's really hard to push it down.
$DOGE is the worst hit in terms of risk aversion. The price dropped from a high of 0.097 to a low of 0.090, a 6% decline, with bears firmly suppressing the market and no strength for a rebound.
The above is just my personal market insight and does not constitute any trading advice.