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November could become a huge test for the AI boom.
Anthropic is reportedly targeting a November IPO, and personally, I’m less interested in the excitement of the listing than in what investors are actually willing to pay for AI growth.
The numbers behind Anthropic are massive rapid revenue growth, huge infrastructure spending, and potentially a valuation approaching $2 trillion. That creates a pretty interesting test for public markets.
My biggest question is simple:
Can the growth justify the price?
AI demand is clearly real, but running frontier models is also extremely expensive. Once Anthropic becomes public, investors will be able to look much more closely at revenue, losses, compute costs and the path toward profitability.
For me, this IPO could tell us something bigger than Anthropic itself.
If investors are willing to support a massive valuation despite huge spending, confidence in the AI cycle is probably still very strong.
If they hesitate, the market may finally be asking harder questions about AI valuations. 👀
This won’t just be an Anthropic IPO. It could be a reality check for the entire AI trade.
#AnthropicEyesNovIPO $BTC $ETH 🔥NFP SHOCKWAVE — BTC EDITION
□□ September NFP forecast: +90K vs +162K in August — a projected 44.4% slowdown. Unemployment is expected at 4.1%.
₿BTC ~$85.4K
🚀Weak NFP <60K
→ Fed hike expectations ↓
→ yields ↓
→ BTC liquidity boost
🔥Hot NFP >150K
→ yields ↑
→ rate-hike expectations ↑
→ BTC pressure
🎯 BTC map:
$86K → $87.5K → $90K
⚠️$83.5K → $82K → $80K
The key isn't NFP alone — watch the 10Y yield immediately after the release. It recently reached 5.34%, its highest level since 2002. 【On-Chain Trading Update｜AAVE】
Monitored address 0x8afa opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 185.65 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 99,974.94 USD
▪ Leverage: 3x
Note: This address has earned over 135,000 USD in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +8.46% Brother Zhuang, please give me one pullback. 😭
$ETH just blasted to 2744, and my unrealized loss is now -40.76U (-43.36%). Only 63 points from liquidation.
Last night I was still up 8U, but greed made me hold instead of taking profit. Now I’m paying for it.
I was wrong. No more fighting the market—just hoping for one chance to exit safely. 🙏
#ETH #交易之声
#USJobsDataToday
#AnthropicEyesNovIPO
#USIranOilTensions Single Coin Contract Fluctuation｜Last 15 Minutes
$QUANT's active buying and selling at the end tends to balance: overall active buying was 44.7%, at the end it was 57.6%, with a fifteen-minute price change of -2.59%. The seller's advantage did not continue to the end of the window, and there is no obvious one-sided transaction advantage in the recent period.⚔️ BTC vs ZEC — THE MATH
₿ BTC ~$85.4K
🟣 ZEC ~$1,337
$10K buys:
BTC → 0.1171 BTC
ZEC → 7.48 ZEC
BTC:
$90K → +5.4%
$95K → +11.2%
$100K → +17.1%
ZEC:
$1,400 → +4.7%
$1,500 → +12.2%
$1,600 → +19.7%
$1,700 → +27.2%
📊 ZEC/BTC ≈ 0.0157 BTC
ZEC has corrected ~21% from its ~$1,698 peak, while BTC is holding above $85K.
🔥 BTC = liquidity
🔥 ZEC = volatility
NFP decides which side gets the bigger move. 👀Brothers, just tell me, isn't this ridiculous……
Who would have thought that just a few days ago, the green gains were overflowing, and in the blink of an eye, the account is left with only over 600 U.
From 8:30 last night to this morning, in less than a day, the positions were completely shattered.
I think the biggest problem this time is not the market, but the mindset being messed up.
Chasing longs at the top, chasing shorts at the bottom, switching back and forth between $BTC and $ETH longs and shorts, the more you try to recover losses, the easier it is to keep making mistakes.
The worst thing in trading is getting emotional.
Just lost a trade, and you want to immediately make it back; just stopped loss, but can't help reversing; in the end, it easily turns into more and more chaotic trading.
In this kind of volatile market, what you need most is patience.
If you don't understand, just wait, don't trade for the sake of trading.
$ZEC #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key #Bitcoin ETF inflows for 9 consecutive days, ETH outflows #Iran receives US counterproposal, US-Iran differences remain BTC's rise today is impressive; this time it finally didn't leave me behind.
Yesterday I felt $BTC was about to break through, so I opened a short position at the high. Unexpectedly, yesterday's high became today's low. This wave of BTC's rise is so comfortable, breaking through 86,000, reaching as high as nearly 87,000.
Looking at the liquidation data, the bulls overwhelmingly defeated the bears, extremely greedy.

Yesterday I was still asking, people say in a bear market, long sideways means a drop, and in a bull market, long sideways means a rise. So what market is this now? Looking at today, I believe the bull market has arrived.
With today's surge, I have more confidence in the upcoming market.
Everyone says don't short mainstream coins in a bull market, and I think that's very true!
But I didn't close my position at the high point, now I'm hesitating whether to keep holding it. Brothers, give me some advice.
I've decided to first watch tonight's non-farm payroll data and see the market reaction before deciding whether to close the position. If the situation is bad, then I'll exit.
Afraid of losing when not making money, afraid of missing out when making money.
My account is finally in the green, but my hesitation hasn't lessened at all.Unrealized profit is not money; it is what the platform has not yet taken.
Three 10x long positions, all showing profits on the books.
$SUI unrealized profit 11,900, $PEPE doubled, $ETC unrealized profit 14,400.
How this number is calculated:
With 10x leverage, a 10% price increase doubles the principal.
A 239% return rate implies the price rose about 24%.
At the moment it triggers:
Unrealized profit can be wiped out anytime by a single opposite candlestick.
For leveraged positions, a 10% drop means the principal is wiped out.
The system closes the position immediately without your consent.
Between the book value and the balance, there is a door that no one guards for you.
Whether the door is open or closed, you only find out at the moment of liquidation.
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $SUI $PEPE 🚨OKX UPDATE — FRESH
OKX has just listed QNT perpetual futures and QNTUSD X-Perp, announced Oct. 1. (OKX)
It also recently announced:
🛡️OKX Shield— Oct. 1
⚡CT/USDT spot listing
🔥ONEUSD & PEOPLEUSD X-Perps
🧩CTUSD X-Perp
🛠️ WebSocket port 8443 will be discontinued Oct. 31; API users should move to port 443. (OKX)
Orbit angle: QNT is the interesting one — another sign OKX is expanding its perpetual-futures lineup around infrastructure/tokenization narratives. Ansem said he has swapped some SOL for $PUMP, optimistic about Q4, but warned that October might see a pullback and open interest decline, and believes $PUMP could exceed $0.01. $PUMP is currently around $0.005, with a market cap of about 2.34 billion; it rose about 50% in 7 days, and reaching $0.01 would require the market cap to double. Support comes from buybacks: about $6.85 million worth of buybacks and burns in the past 7 days, annualized about 360 million, roughly 15% of the market cap. The overlooked downside: buybacks come from platform fees, i.e., meme hype, which cycles with price and contracts synchronously during downturns; plus, he himself predicts deleveraging in October, and high-beta assets that rose 50% weekly usually pull back more than SOL. My judgment: if SOL pulls back in October, $PUMP’s decline will be more than twice that, and buybacks can only slow it down. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market has been rising continuously, and tonight's September non-farm payrolls will be the next key test.
At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the US will release the September non-farm employment report. The market expects about 90,000 new jobs, significantly lower than August's 162,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%.
Why is this non-farm payroll report so important?
Because the market is trading around a core logic:
Cooling employment → Reduced pressure for rate hikes → US Treasury yields fall → Risk assets benefit.
Recently, BTC and ETH have surged, essentially trading ahead of an improved macro outlook.
Cooling PCE and easing rate hike expectations have brought funds back to risk assets, but tonight's non-farm report will determine if this logic can continue.
Three scenarios:
1. Non-farm weaker than expected
Employment slows significantly, the market may further lower rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields fall, strengthening the BTC rally logic.
2. Non-farm meets expectations
The market may maintain the current pace, with funds continuing to focus on ETF flows and risk appetite.
3. Non-farm stronger than expected
Indicates US employment remains resilient, rate hike expectations may reheat, and a high-yield environment could again suppress risk assets.
But in trading, don't just look at the number of new jobs.
The real transmission path affecting BTC is:
Non-farm → Federal Reserve policy expectations → US Treasury yields → US dollar → Risk appetite → Crypto capital flows.
My judgment:
Today's crypto market rise is more about trading the "return of rate cut expectations"; tonight's non-farm report is the key to confirming whether the rally can continue.
If the data is weak The second truth: 35% of ETH is staked, and the amount of tradable coins is decreasing
Look at a structural data point that most people overlook.
Ethereum staking contracts currently lock about 43.16 million ETH, accounting for 35% of the total supply. This figure was below 30% in January 2026, increasing by about 7 million coins in seven months.
The circulating supply is continuously shrinking.
Citibank stated this very clearly in its latest report: 35% of ETH is staked, reducing the supply of ETH available for trading, which may amplify the impact of demand recovery. Citibank raised its 12-month target price for ETH from $2240 to $3028, citing stronger crypto activity, improved macro environment, and renewed ETF demand.
Consider this structure: tradable ETH is decreasing, while ETFs are buying, and whales are buying. Supply is contracting, demand is recovering. This is a structurally tight supply and demand pattern. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 🟣 $ZEC PREDICTION — NFP DAY
ZEC ~$1,333
📉 Recent peak: $1,698
→ Drawdown: ~21.5%
🎯 Reclaim $1,355 → $1,400
🔥 Above $1,400 → $1,450 → $1,500
⚠️ Below $1,300 → $1,250
ETF pressure matters: ZEC's ETF recorded a $30.25M outflow on Sept. 30, after ~$268M cumulative inflows.
□□ NFP could bring another volatility spike.
$1,400 reclaim or $1,300 breakdown? 👀#USJobsDataToday #AnthropicEyesNovIPO #BTCETHETFOutflows $ZEC The AI market is no longer just the $NVDA market.
GPU → HBM → Network → Optical Interconnect → Data Center,
AI capital expenditure is continuously expanding outward along the industry chain.
So now when I look at semiconductors,
I pay more attention to whether the entire industry's profits continue to grow rather than the stock price.
Currently, demand is still there.The timing of interest rate hikes may be delayed, but the pricing logic of BTC and ETH is no longer driven solely by a single interest rate. After last month's rate hike, prices still rose, indicating that negative factors can turn into positives once they are priced in; future rate cuts, if realized, may not immediately boost prices. The PCE night session initially rose then fell, indicating the market prefers to reduce positions on rallies, with short-term sentiment leaning bearish.
News usually only adds fuel to the trend and rarely reverses direction out of nowhere. Once consensus forms, capital will concentrate on the side with less resistance. Currently, BTC, ETH, ZEC, and others are still oscillating within a range, with bulls and bears in a stalemate. The longer the sideways movement lasts, the closer a breakout is; the real surge awaits direction confirmation.
Right now, bulls lack momentum, and the market tends to test lower levels. Small short positions are acceptable, but don't mistake the volatility for a one-sided move. Wait for the range to break and the trend to emerge before decisively following it. What should be done now is to wait.NFP × CRYPTO — BIG VOLATILITY WATCH
□□ September NFP estimate:+90K
August:+162K→ expected slowdown of44.4%. Unemployment forecast:4.1%.
₿BTC reaction map:
🔥 NFP >150K → yields/DXY could rise → crypto pressure
🚀 NFP <60K → rate-hike expectations could fall → crypto liquidity relief
⚖️ 60K–130K → wages + unemployment become the key
Current macro backdrop is already tense: the U.S. 10Y yield recently touched5.34%, while October Fed-hike pricing is around25–26%.#USJobsDataToday Total exposure now sits around $154M, with the account still heavily tilted toward longs. $BTC slipped from 543 coins to 540 coins, maintaining roughly 40X leverage on the long side. Floating profit has climbed to about $129K, while the liquidation price has been lowered toward $74,250, giving the position a little more room to absorb volatility. $ETH remains the main anchor, with approximately 33,800 ETH still held at around 25X leverage. Unrealized profit is near $875K, while the liquidation tBig Brother Maji is causing trouble again! The total position size surged directly from 150 million USD to 161 million USD. This round of portfolio adjustment focuses on "abandoning the weak and keeping the strong."
$BTC has become the absolute favorite, ramping up from 369 coins to 546 coins, with an average price pulled up to 84,500, liquidation price raised to 75,500, placing heavy bets blindly on the long side.
$ETH holdings slightly reduced to 34,000 coins, average price 2,678, unrealized profit of 650,000, but the liquidation price at 2,550 is still a looming threat.
The worst hit is $HYPE, replenished to 226,000 coins at a cost basis of 90, with unrealized losses expanding to 620,000.
PUMP was significantly reduced, obviously funds were diverted to support $BTC.
Big Brother’s hardcore play with millions in interest plus high leverage is something ordinary people should just watch. We should focus on tracking capital flows and learning the logic, not the leverage. Don’t get carried away just because others are using high leverage!
#SeptemberNonFarmPayrolls announced tonight, interest rate hike expectations are the focus #Anthropic plans IPO launch in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US will release the non-farm payroll data #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 , something big is coming!
One post to help you understand what US non-farm payrolls are, why to pay attention to them, and how the market might move!
📊 Why is the crypto world always waiting for the “US non-farm payrolls”?
Simply put: Non-farm payrolls = a gauge of how hot or cold the US job market is.
Every month, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases employment data, focusing on three key indicators:
① Non-farm employment numbers
② Unemployment rate
③ Average hourly earnings
Why does the crypto world care?
Because employment data affects market expectations for Fed rate cuts/hikes, which in turn impacts the dollar, interest rates, and risk assets.
Simply understood:
🔥 Non-farm stronger than expected → US economy/employment is strong → rate cut expectations may cool → risk assets under pressure
❄️ Non-farm weaker than expected → economy/employment cools → rate cut expectations may heat up → BTC, Nasdaq, and other risk assets may get support
But note: it’s not as simple as “good non-farm = drop, bad non-farm = rise.”
What really matters is:
Actual data vs market expectations + unemployment rate + wages + subsequent revisions.
So on the day non-farm payrolls are released, #$BTC volatility often significantly increases.
But never just short #$BTC because the non-farm data is high, or just go long $BTC because the data is low
Don’t start going all-in with 5x or 10x leverage contracts just because a number is released at 8:30 PM
Data-driven moves often first sweep one side, then move the other wayDuring the National Day holiday, Bitcoin hovered between 83,000 and 85,000 USD, and the platform token OKB was also active but without causing any stir.
As of around October 2, OKB fluctuated around 121 USD, rising only 0.1%-0.7% in 24 hours, up just over 1% in 7 days, and increased slightly above 10% in 30 days, but it is still far from last year's or previous highs (variously reported between 228-372 USD across platforms).
In short: OKB is not a junk coin, but it’s not a "blind buy and it will soar" ticket either.
1. What is the current trading logic?
Supply side: Total supply locked at 21 million, with burn and halted issuance, creating a scarcity narrative. The market has already gone through the "Bitcoin of exchanges" rhetoric.
Demand side: XLayer’s Gas, Exchange OS requiring OKB staking to open markets, tokenized stocks/compliant derivatives—these are slow variables, not news that triggers explosive volume overnight.
Backing side: ICE’s strategic investment in OKX, the NYSE parent company collaborating with OKX on compliant futures/stock tokenization, represent mid-to-long-term potential, but there is still a long way between "implementation" and "profit realization" 0x3cfbcebf998a27007326d18cffa5ba9cad041111$ETH 一只传统货币市场基金，通常藏在申购表格、托管账户、估值系统和银行转账之间。 投资者提交指令，基金管理人确认身份，登记机构更新份额，托管人核对资金。每家公司都有自己的账本，同一笔交易可能被重复录入好几次。 2023年10月2日，瑞银资产管理开始尝试另一种做法：把基金份额写进以太坊智能合约。 当天，UBS宣布启动首个代币化可变资本公司基金试点。它是一只货币市场基金，也是新加坡金融管理局Project Guardian框架下的真实资产代币化实验。试点使用UBS自建的Tokenize平台，智能合约部署在以太坊公共区块链上，首批交易已经完成。 日期没有跨时区争议。UBS官方页面记录为2023年10月2日，新加坡与台湾同属UTC+8；页面显示的欧洲中部夏令时间03:00，换算为台湾时间是当天上午9点。 这次试点首先测试基金的申购与赎回。 投资者申购时，系统可以按照设定条件生成代表基金份额的Token；赎回完成后，相应Token被注销，份额记录随之更新。智能合约把资金动作、份额变化与交易记录连接起来，减少不同系统之间反复传送文件和人工对账。 这些Token也没有把货币市场基金变成可以随意After holding the $1,600 area for so long, ZEC has now lost an important support zone and the structure is starting to shift lower. The next area I’m watching is around $1,320, but I don’t expect $1,400 to provide much protection if selling pressure continues. Why? Once price loses the $1,400–$1,420 zone, the chart opens up toward the lower liquidity area. Meanwhile, plenty of late buyers are still trapped above, creating overhead supply on every rebound. The bigger picture also matters. With U.ETH Market Snapshot: Extremely Narrow Fluctuations, Low Volume
ETH consolidates around $2700, with a slight 24-hour increase of about 0.59%, reaching a high of $2745 and a low of $2700, with a volatility amplitude of only 1.13%; approximately 2454 ETH traded in 15 minutes, indicating very low participation. The daily ADX is 42.2, showing the mid-term trend remains intact, but the 1-hour ADX is only 7.6, indicating unclear short-term direction.
Upside Logic
First, the anticipation of the Glamsterdam upgrade, scheduled to activate on October 6 on the Sepolia testnet, creates a "buy on expectation" sentiment; second, Citibank raised ETH's target price from $2240 to $3028, citing concerns over currency depreciation and accelerated institutional adoption.
Downside Pressure
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $55.37 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of outflows, with Fidelity's FETH experiencing a single-day outflow of $23.5 million; the 10-year US Treasury yield is around 5.28%, continuously suppressing risk assets.
On-Chain Signals
A certain whale has accumulated 12,134 ETH since September 2 at an average price of $2671 and deposited them into Aave; MetaMask is exiting Lido validator nodes due to an infrastructure security incident, expected to complete before October 7.
Key Levels and Observations
Resistance above at $2800 requires a volume breakout; if it fails, a retest of the $2670–$2680 support range is possible. Short-term core variables include the stability of the Glamsterdam testnet, whether ETF outflows can reverse, and the direction of US Treasury yields.
$ETH BTC just touched around 86,000, but what’s truly worth watching isn’t "how much it has risen," but a detail: the price is approaching the resistance zone again, while contract open interest is starting to rise.
The latest data shows that BTC’s total open contracts across the market are about $27.5 billion, increasing by approximately 3.6% in 24 hours. This means that the price approaching 86,000 this time isn’t just a slow push by spot trading, but leveraged funds are also re-entering the market.
Why is this worth attention?
Because rising prices and increasing open interest indicate that market participation is picking up again. But this also means that every price movement ahead could be amplified by leverage.
So what’s more important to observe now isn’t simply judging whether it’s bullish or bearish, but whether price and open interest can confirm each other near 86,000.
Key resistance to watch is the 86,000–87,000 USD range above; on the downside, first see if around 84,000 can hold steady. The real critical point is whether, if the price continues to approach the upper zone, open interest will keep increasing or suddenly drop.
BTC has returned to a critical position, and what the market needs to watch next might not be price moving first, but how leverage moves first.
$BTC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC Bulls - Hourly Chart Cycle
Going long here again.
Well, after the last long, there was a nice rally, holding the range lows, the channel, and retracing to the weekly open price.
The take profit was very good but only reached one target, so it’s hard to call it a true win.
I still believe the plan remains valid. We are also still above the red POI, inside the ascending sloped channel, near the range low deviation and 2D OHLC.
As long as all these hold, the bulls remain valid.
So entering again.
Of course, still holding 40% of the short leftover position, consistent with the overall bearish expectation, as I have mentioned many times.
Consolidation is indeed frustrating.
But persistence is key in a choppy price action. And by going long again this time, I am precisely demonstrating that.
So, as I said, this re-entry long is a great exercise in execution and sticking to the plan.
Given that the 2D OHLC ends at today’s close, this is likely the last long in this area.The market is blazing hot, but Big Bro Maji has quietly started to close his positions! His current total holdings are $153 million. While retail investors are still chasing the rally, he has already begun taking profits at the top and actively reducing risk. This defensive move is definitely worth a close look.
Let's dive into the details:
First, BTC: Big Bro proactively reduced his position this time to defend. Holdings dropped from 546 coins to 460, locking in 86 coins. Margin fell to $980,000, and the liquidation price was pushed up sharply to $69,500. Profits secured, and the defense line is now safe.
As for ETH, profits are running wild. Holdings stand at 35,000 coins with an average price of 2682. This big gain is very satisfying, with unrealized profits of $1.495 million. Although he still burns $1.17 million daily in funding fees, facing doubled profits, Big Bro handles it with no pressure.
Looking at HYPE, he fought a beautiful comeback battle. From floating losses to gains, Big Bro took the opportunity to reduce his position, pushing the liquidation price down from 64 to 49, significantly releasing risk and locking in profits nicely.
Regarding PUMP, it continues to show small losses and no presence, so we’ll skip it.
Overall, the strategy is extremely clear: pull up while pulling back, lock in profits, actively deleverage, and lower the liquidation line. The whales have already started preparing for the storm at the top, so we retail investors must control ourselves and not get caught up in the heat of the market. The wind has changed; protecting profits is the way to go. $BTC $ETH $HYPE The market is bleak, with SOL leading the decline, BTC and ETH weakening in sync, and altcoins suffering widespread losses. It’s truly distressing to watch, but there are still several data hurdles between "distress" and "reversal." Neither the PCE nor the Fed minutes have been released yet, so rushing to define the trend now would be premature.
This round of sell-off is essentially a correction of expectation gaps.
Digging deeper, the pressure comes from the combined force of three directions:
· Unwinding of rate cut bets — The market had been overly optimistic about the pace of easing; once data came out, expectations were forced to shift backward, prompting capital to withdraw first as a precaution.
· Liquidation of leveraged long positions — Perpetual contract funding rates are relatively high; once the price breaks through dense moving average zones, forced liquidations surge, amplifying the decline.
· Rising cautious sentiment — Institutions are reluctant to increase positions before core inflation data, liquidity thins, and even small orders can create large dips.
The combination of these three factors easily triggers an overshoot range. But to be clear, this is a technical pullback caused by expectation adjustments, not a signal of a full bearish turn in the capital market. The former can be digested over time; the latter requires vigilance.
The dollar and interest rates remain high, but the narrative could flip at any moment.
A drop doesn’t mean the end; sometimes panic selling is just the start of chip redistribution. Before the PCE and minutes are revealed, managing your position size and preserving ammunition is more important than betting on direction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Bitcoin has finally stood above 85,000, but I want to ask: Is this really different this time?
The most interesting change in the market over the past two days is:
Everyone had been waiting a long time for a breakthrough above 85,000.
After the real breakthrough, the market did not show that kind of crazy chasing after the rise.
Why?
Because everyone remembers the previous times.
It surged up,
then dropped back down.
So now the biggest disagreement is not:
"Can Bitcoin rise?"
But rather:
Is 85,000 this time a resistance turning into support, or another bull trap?
My focus is simple:
Looking up to 87,000.
If it continues to break through 87,000 with volume and can hold above 85,000 on a pullback, that means the bulls are really starting to take control of the pace.
Looking down at 85,000.
If it falls back below 85,000 and repeatedly fails to get back above, then this breakthrough still needs to be re-verified.
Ethereum is the same.
Around 2,700 has now become a psychological barrier.
Breakthroughs are not scary,
what's scary is no one stepping in after the breakthrough.
So now I won't get excited just because of one rising candlestick.
What really matters is:
After the breakthrough, does the market have the ability to turn the breakthrough into a new floor?
Here's a question for today:
If Bitcoin pulls back near 85,000, would you choose:
A: Continue to expect a breakthrough
B: Wait for confirmation before entering
Type A or B in the comments 👇
Let's see how many people in the market really believe this time is for real.
#大饼 #二饼 #BTC #ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Bro, tonight at 8:30 PM, the September nonfarm payrolls will be announced, and the suspense about the rate hike all depends on this.
The market expects an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 jobs, significantly slowing down compared to last month's 162,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Previously, August's PCE was 3.4% year-on-year, core at 3.0%, which was in line with expectations. The latest initial jobless claims are 197,000, below the market expectation of 200,000, indicating the job market hasn't completely cooled down. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson just said more data is needed to decide on a rate hike, and the market immediately lowered bets on a rate hike in October.
Tonight's impact on the crypto circle is very direct. If the nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations, say just over 70,000 or even lower, it means cooling employment and the Fed loses the confidence to hike rates. Bitcoin has a chance to rebound and test the resistance above. Conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations strongly, say back above 100,000, the Fed will have to stubbornly maintain a hawkish stance, and Bitcoin will likely continue to consolidate around 83,000 or even dip lower. $ANTHROPIC $BTC $SNDK The support level has been wavering for a long time, and the market has shrunk with no movement. Looking at this pitiful trading volume, trying to bottom-fish now is basically giving freebies to the air. The multi-timeframe oversold condition has long since dulled; stubbornly holding the direction now is just going against the odds. Might as well shut down and retreat, leaving this mess to someone else destined for it. I'll go wash my face and change my mood; don't force extra drama on yourself when there's no market action.
$BNB $CAKE $TWT Anthropic's reported IPO timetable matters less as a calendar event than as a test of how public markets price AI companies whose growth is tied to enormous compute commitments.
The stated valuation range and infrastructure arrangements point to a familiar tension: strategic capacity can support expansion, but it also raises the bar for durable economics once public investors can scrutinize the trade-off.
#AnthropicEyesNovIPO Brothers, this wave of Ethereum is really strong.
It rose 70.9% in Q3, significantly outperforming the broader market. Back in July, many people were still saying Ethereum might be done, but with a little push, it directly became the star asset of the quarter.
There are three core reasons. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and funds have started to refocus on the second largest crypto asset. Spot ETF inflows have increased, with institutions buying. DeFi on-chain activity has warmed up, the ecosystem heat is back, and the market narrative around Ethereum is being repriced.
So if you look at its current movement, it rises a bit more than Bitcoin when going up, and falls a bit less than Bitcoin when going down—it's really solid.
Right now, Ethereum is oscillating between 2660 and 2743. Looking at the three-stage upward structure, segments a, b, and c have shown divergence, and on the 4-hour level, it’s a bit stuck. Next, it will either form a larger-level consolidation zone or directly pull back. Personally, I lean toward a larger consolidation zone, trading time for space.
But above the daily level, the bullish outlook remains unchanged; the uptrend is intact, just with a need to retest the trendline. When there’s no market momentum, you can only scrape by and do some range trading.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC 85000 has been eaten up, and the real danger zone is just ahead!
Brothers, today's BTC surge is quite interesting.
The sell wall around 85000 that has been pressing for a long time has been directly swept away, with an intraday high reaching 85266.
On the surface, it looks very strong.
But I actually think:
We can't rush to call it a breakout yet.
There is only one reason——
The holiday market is too thin.
In this environment, it's not hard for the price to sweep liquidity upward once, but the real challenge is:
After the surge, is there sustained spot buying to follow up?
If it's just contract funds pushing the price up without continuous spot follow-through, then above 85200 might actually become a liquidity harvesting zone for the bulls.
From now on, I’m only watching two areas.
First: 85266—85650
If volume continues to increase and the price can hold steady here, the strong structure can be further confirmed.
But if it shows:
Volume increase → surge → no push → rapid fall
Then be cautious.
This is likely not a breakout but a typical fake breakout sweeping liquidity.
Second: 84000—84200
This is the position bulls must defend now.
After a breakout, whether the pullback can hold here is more important than just how high it surges.
Holding here means bulls are still controlling the market.
If it breaks down, the price may retest around 83300.
And the position that really must not be lost is the one below this The old $ETH whales are still cashing out, and this rebound's height is being suppressed by them:
Since last week, many ETH whales have been selling off, and in the past two days, it has intensified, with even ICO whales doing clearance-style sell-offs.
According to Lookonchain on-chain data, in just two days, they sold 19,000 coins, equivalent to about $47 million.
Fortunately, contracts are taking over: on 10/1, a single transfer of 200,000 coins, about $850 million worth of ETH, was moved into Deribit. Not sure if it's hedging or genuine optimism.
In a volatile market, hold spot assets and avoid high leverage.Why should we still watch capital flows when $BTC Bitcoin is rising?
OKX market data shows that BTC remains one of the most actively traded assets. If the price rally is accompanied by expanded spot trading volume, the support is more credible; if the rise is mainly driven by short-term leverage, the pullback could be faster.
I pay attention to trading volume and ETF capital flows during pullbacks. If the price fails to hold the recent range and capital continues to flow out, the expectation for the rebound's continuation should be lowered.The International Monetary Fund has approved a disbursement of approximately $138 million to El Salvador, part of its extended fund arrangement totaling about $1.4 billion over 40 months, while waiving the previously unmet Bitcoin accumulation-related conditions. Officially, the authorities have taken corrective measures and committed to further reducing government involvement in Bitcoin-related activities. It is expected that no Bitcoin accumulation beyond the recorded donation scope will occur in the future, and transparency and regulatory frameworks for holding Bitcoin will be strengthened.
On one hand, the "national-level hoarding" radical experiment has been paused; on the other hand, the arrival of this money eases fiscal pressure—a relief for market sentiment that had just started to improve. In the long term, the narrative of national-level buying will cool down, but the push for compliance actually provides institutions with a reason to enter the market. $BTCAjian's little tips on strong altcoins:
$AAVE Currently both TVL and price are strong, but the recent module security incident cannot be ignored. Ajian believes the business growth is real, and the security risk is also real. Holding $175-$180 indicates the market is still willing to value the business; if the security incident expands, the price strength will be reassessed.
$ENA Recently experienced a surge, but undoubtedly this kind of trend easily attracts both spot and leveraged chasing. Holding $0.24-$0.25 means the pullback support is still there; only if it continues to stand above $0.28 can the strength be considered sustained.
$HYPE Here, Hyperliquid's OI is still rising. Ajian suggests focusing on the revenue trend and treating leverage-driven rises cautiously. Holding $86.5 means the trend remains; only if it breaks $90.6 is there new room to grow Deterministic factory contracts address whether an address commitment can be reproduced
Developers often want to know the future contract address before deployment to arrange permissions, cross-chain mappings, or fund flows. If different chains, tools, or deployers use inconsistent factory logic, the same parameters may yield different results, invalidating the pre-written address commitment. Glamsterdam introduces a universal deterministic factory contract aiming to provide multiple parties with a more stable deployment entry within a protocol, making address calculation and reproduction more reliable. It does not automatically guarantee the security of new contracts, nor does it prevent developers from deploying faulty code to a predictable address. Determinism only answers "where it will land," not "what is inside." For the $ETH ecosystem, the value of this change lies in reducing cross-application coordination costs, allowing wallets, bridges, and protocols to rely less on individually maintained factory versions. The true adoption metric should be whether development tools integrate it and whether applications reduce address mismatches, rather than the factory contract itself being included in upgrade lists.
Predictable addresses are especially suitable for multiple parties to jointly review configurations before deployment, but before funds actually enter, bytecode, initialization parameters, and control permissions still need to be verified. Correct address is only the first gate.$TRUTH
📌 Entry: 0.01465–0.01475
🟢 SL: 0.01420
🎯 TP1: 0.01485
🎯 TP2: 0.01520
🎯 TP3: 0.01560
Strong 15m uptrend. A break above 0.01485 can continue the move; exit if 0.01420 fails
#TokenizedStocksOnAave
#ZECNears1700NewHigh #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
The situation in the Middle East is stirring again, with intensified US-Iran tensions. The market worries about disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing risk premiums to rise rapidly. Brent crude oil has climbed back above the $100 mark. Crude oil is a core driver of inflation; sustained high oil prices will directly push up US inflation expectations.
Personal view
This is a significant macroeconomic bearish signal at present. The rebound in oil prices will delay the pace of inflation decline, prompting the market to reprice Federal Reserve rate expectations. Long-term US Treasury yields are likely to surge again, continuously suppressing risk assets like BTC. Many people treat geopolitical conflicts directly as a safe haven benefit for Bitcoin, but in this cycle, the inflation pressure caused by high oil prices often outweighs the safe haven demand.
Two scenarios need to be distinguished: a short-term sudden conflict will temporarily boost safe haven sentiment; however, if the conflict continuously pushes oil prices higher, triggering an inflation rebound, it will instead cause capital to withdraw from risk assets. Geopolitical events are highly uncertain, and news of negotiations and easing could emerge at any time. Oil price volatility at high levels will be very intense.
From a trading perspective, geopolitical market moves are highly random, and contracts should avoid heavy positions for speculation. Repeated fluctuations in the situation can cause rapid simultaneous losses on both long and short positions. Priority should be given to reducing leverage and setting stop losses. Going forward, focus on two key indicators: whether oil prices can hold above $100 and whether US Treasury yields rise in tandem.Tonight, the Nonfarm Payrolls report is coming
At 8:30 PM, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Nonfarm Employment report, which will be a key basis for investors to judge whether the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates for the second consecutive time. The small ADP Nonfarm data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. private sector added 90,000 jobs in September, exceeding economists' expectations and significantly increasing from the revised 36,000 in August. Tonight's Nonfarm data will directly impact whether there will be another rate hike this year.
During China's long holidays, overseas markets often experience holiday effects. This time, there is a frenzy of rising prices everywhere. Bitcoin has once again broken through the $86,000 mark. The main reasons are twofold: first, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman released cautious policy signals, reducing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; second, institutions have raised their target price for this year to $113,000, citing continuous ETF inflows.
However, close attention is needed as Bitcoin's monthly chart has reached a strong resistance level. Structurally, it still leans bullish, but the rebound lacks volume support and is relatively fragile. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike this year will rise again, leading to panic selling and a further sell-off. As long as it does not break the previous high of 87,500, we continue to be bearish and short. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC 📰 [Aave Founder Responds: The Involved Module Is a Third-Party External Adapter, Not the Aave v3 Contract Affected]
BlockBeats reports that on October 2, in response to SlowMist's report that the Safe module used in Aave v3's looping strategy was exploited, resulting in a loss of about 114.09 ETH (approximately $310,000), Aave founder Stani Kulechov stated that the incident was not an attack on the Aave v3 contract. Stani Kulechov said the involved module is a third-party external adapter built on top of Aave v3, and this incident does not affect Aave v3 itself. Previously, BlockBeats reported that Aave...
This incident reminds me that on-chain interactions really need to distinguish between the main protocol and the external adapters layered on top; many pitfalls actually lie in authorization and composition layers. Seeing everything being called a hack on the leader easily turns panic into narrative. Do you usually verify contract ownership one by one, or just rely on audit reports? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $LINK Are people who short BTC just asking to be mocked?
I noticed a pretty interesting phenomenon:
When it rises, everyone shouts bull market;
When it falls, they start asking who ran early.
But when I short $BTC, I become the one "going against the trend."
So I want to ask:
Why must BTC only go up now and not down?
This time I shorted at a high level, already taking half profits around 82,800, gaining about 1,500 points.
I didn’t keep messing with the remaining position, nor did I chase ups and downs back and forth.
The reason is simple:
I believe there is still room for a pullback here.
My trading logic is never to guess every single candlestick, but to set the direction in advance and then wait for the market to confirm.
If I’m right, I’m bearish;
If I’m wrong, I stop loss.
It’s that simple.
The most interesting thing is, many people say "trend is king," but when it comes to choosing to go long, they hesitate.
If you are firmly bullish, then go long.
I won’t change my trading plan just because others are bullish.
The market never has only one answer.
If some bet on a rise, there must be others betting on a pullback.
What’s really worth paying attention to is tonight’s big non-farm payrolls.
After the data is released, will BTC continue to break upward, or will it have a sharp shakeout riding on the good/bad news?
It’s too early to say anything now.
So my plan is clear:
No chasing, no reckless cutting, no frequent direction changes.
For the remaining position, let the market give the answer. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's market trend has been relatively strong on the bullish side. The US stock market opened high and then fell, but the momentum point appeared after the close with an upward move, indicating that market sentiment has already reached the first resistance level around 85,000. Whether it can continue to hold above this level is particularly critical. During the early session, the hourly chart showed continuous strong bullish surges, but there might be a false breakout signal, so blind bullishness should be avoided to prevent a market reversal. On the lower hourly chart, Bitcoin is already close to the previous high of 85,600, which is a resistance level where a pullback is possible. The four-hour chart shows a breakout above the Bollinger upper band; unless there is very strong continuous upward momentum to break through, according to Bollinger rules, a drop back below the upper band is more likely. From the four-hour perspective, conservative traders would not chase longs here. Currently, Bitcoin's first resistance above is at 85,800, and the second resistance is near 87,000. At present, the possibility of a sustained large surge is low. On the downside, support levels are at 84,500, 83,500, and around 82,800. Ethereum is currently above 2,700, with its trend consistent with the broader market. A drop below 2,700 is possible. This morning's market performance was slightly strong, with the hourly chart reaching the recent high of the consolidation range. The four-hour chart shows a key resistance at 2,750; if it breaks above, it could signal a market reversal. Ethereum's first resistance is at 2,750, and the second resistance is near 2,800. On the downside, the first support is at 2,690, and the second support is near 2,660. Although the current price is around 2,715, it is just testing the resistance, so it depends on which side prevails. Based on the current trend, if the price rises, one can scale in or add positions, then reduce positions after a pullback to cost. This way, as long as one captures a wave of the market, previous losses can be recovered.#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
Brent crude returns to 100, is another US-Iran conflict about to explode? Don’t just watch oil prices, BTC’s night is just beginning
Just saw: Brent crude December futures at $102.31/barrel, WTI also up to 92.8, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz attacked, the US Navy’s third carrier strike group heading to the Middle East, Trump said "may strike Iran again after midterm elections," the market immediately priced in the "war premium."
But crypto folks, don’t just watch crude oil—
Oil price breaks 100 → inflation expectations return → Fed won’t easily cut rates → US Treasury yields hold high → risk assets shake first.
Last time this script played out, BTC dropped from 87,000 to 84,000, with $280 million liquidated in 4 hours.
So now it’s not the silly "war is good for crypto" logic:
• Short term: hedging ≠ buying BTC, liquidity tightening kills leverage first
• Medium term: if the Strait of Hormuz really gets blocked, oil hits 120, global stagflation trades restart, gold doesn’t rise, crypto falls first
• Opportunity: wait for panic to clear, if BTC can’t hold key support don’t catch the falling knife; if it truly stabilizes, energy/RWA/payment narratives will actually get more attractive
In short:
When the macro gun fires, don’t ask "should I bottom buy," ask "how much leverage do you still have left."$MUBARAK suddenly surged intraday to 0.069. 0.07, as a major integer threshold, caused altcoins to hit a top and crash. Sharp rises and falls are very natural.
I shorted at 0.069, took half profit at 0.068, and took full profit when it dropped to 0.065, but it looks like it’s still falling…$BTC current price is 85914.4. After surging to 86888 on the 1-hour chart, it quickly pulled back. Now the market short positions account for a staggering 99%, with most people waiting for this wave to top out and crash.
Let's talk about some key levels for the mid-to-long term.
For mid-to-long term longs, watch the trend support at 84670. This is the defensive bottom line for this rally. If it holds here on a pullback, the uptrend can still be expected to continue pushing to new highs. Once 84670 is decisively broken, the bullish trend is questionable and blindly going long is no longer advisable.
For mid-to-long term shorts, focus on the high at 86888. Repeated failure to break this resistance is an opportunity to test shorts. A true confirmation of a bearish reversal requires breaking below the previous platform at 83120. Breaking this level would trigger a deep correction.
The interesting point now is that almost the entire market is short. This extreme positioning can easily lead to a short squeeze. There are two possible scenarios: first, most shorts get liquidated and the price continues to make new highs; second, the bulls run out of strength and the price crashes down following the heavy short pressure.
Don't rush to go all-in long or short now. Wait for key price levels to be broken before taking action. Opening positions recklessly under extreme positioning risks getting chopped back and forth.
$BTC
#BTC surge and pullback with extreme short position ratio
Market observation only, not investment adviceA big pullback on the first day of October, wiping out the $TEM profits 😂. Holding on to wait a bit longer, it’s going to retest the launch platform pivot, which is quite exhausting, but the direction is confirmed: if no stop loss is hit, just ignore it; if stop loss is hit, close the position and look for other opportunities. Wait for another retest of the lower track to stabilize before acting.
The market is too chaotic right now. Range arbitrage has been going on for 2 months. Now we have to wait for the rebound to end before entering and adding to short positions. First wait for the rebound and retest to confirm the end, then expand the short position. Try to trade as little as possible.
Stop arbitrage for now, switch everything to trend trading: $TEM long trend, $SKHYNIX short trend.
See how the non-farm payrolls go tonight; good news could ease some rate hike expectations, which is also good. Because even if they hike, it won’t be much before hitting another peak.
Still watching when US Treasury yields can recover a bit; without ending the stop loss on tech longs, I’m not confident setting it too high.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Active Buy-Sell Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MEGA's final segment of active transactions shifted from predominantly selling to predominantly buying: the entire segment's active buy ratio is 38.3%, with the last five minutes at 60.5%, and the price increased by 1.22% during this period. The recent transaction volume and price have both shown strength, and the overall buy dominance will mitigate the current fluctuations.