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$PONS valuation, you can't find a second one like it across the entire sector.
4.37 times. AAVE is ten times that, UNI is more than nine times, even PUMP is pricier. Scanning the whole DeFi sector, it's the one lying flat on the floor.
But you have to think clearly about one thing: the market isn't stupid. When something is this cheap, it's either gold or a trap.
Look at the revenue. $276,000 in 24 hours, not a huge absolute value, but the change is positive, +13.1%. This is a rare sign of recovery recently. The money isn't much, but the direction is right.
The problem lies on the supply side.
On the domestic market, a coin is issued every ten minutes; on the overseas market, two per hour. Yesterday, the entire network issued 7,338 coins. Sounds like a lot? It's not even a fraction of the peak period. With issuance shrinking like this, what supports the revenue?
So the low multiple of PONS isn't because the market overlooked it; the market is pricing in a risk—whether this revenue can be sustained.
If issuance doesn't pick up, $276,000 might be the ceiling. If issuance heats up again, 4.37 times would be a joke.
At this position, the bet isn't on cheapness, but on a turning point.
Revenue recovery is the first signal flare, but one is not enough. Next, watch the issuance data closely—that's what will decide if PONS is an opportunity or a trap.
Cheapness has never been a reason to buy; cheapness plus a fundamental reversal is. PONS is only showing half the cards right now. $ETH $BTC The turning point window has arrived. ETH has been hovering around 2680 for a whole week without breaking through, seemingly supported, but in fact the bullish momentum is being exhausted. The longer the sideways movement, the closer the directional choice, and I believe the probability of a downward move is greater.
The previous gains have been considerable, and the low-level spot holdings have substantial profits, so large holders are always tempted to cash out. News can affect short-term sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse capital flow and trend. The rebound lacks volume, and there is dense resistance above; this structure looks more like distribution rather than accumulation.
My view: short Ethereum, the rebound is an opportunity, and a break below the lower range signals acceleration. If $BTC weakens simultaneously, it will further amplify selling pressure. Don’t rush to chase longs; wait for market confirmation.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Citibank bullish on whales dumping wildly! Staking black swan brewing, are BTC and ETH hanging by a thread?
1. Market Status: Weak and stagnant, bulls powerless
① On the 4-hour chart, both BTC and ETH are firmly suppressed below the moving averages, with volume sharply shrinking.
② BTC's KDJ is dulled at a high level, ETH's momentum is weak. Bulls fail to counterattack, the market trapped in suffocating narrow oscillation, awaiting a breakout.
2. Capital Battle: Institutions and whales diverge
① Citibank loudly raises target prices, Saylor keeps buying, Q3 gains impressive, long-term faith unshaken.
② But reality is harsh: ETF ends consecutive gains turning to net outflows, ancient whales from 2016 cash out over $400 million. Profit-taking at highs causes huge capital divergence.
3. Fatal Risks: Ecological black swan and macro pressure
① ETH hit hard! MetaMask security incident triggers massive validator exit, social sentiment hits freezing point, Ripple market cap even overtakes.
② Large sell walls loom above BTC, macro side sees high US Treasury yields draining liquidity, short-term recovery is tough.
Core Summary:
Long-term on the left, short-term pain on the right. Institutions are painting the picture, whales are cashing out. Put away fantasies of quick riches, strictly control positions, and endure this tearing washout period!
$BTC $ETH The surge right after the PCE release looks more like a shakeout rather than a chasing rally. Are you seeing good news, or is it another case of expectations being sold off prematurely? Last night when the PCE data came out, I was watching the market closely. The overall August figure was 3.4%, core at 3.0%, both below expectations. The first reaction was of course a sigh of relief; the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 51% to 37%, and both the dollar and US Treasury yields softened a bit, causing BTC to bounce. But that rebound didn’t hold for long and was quickly sold off again—a typical buy the rumor, sell the fact scenario. This kind of movement is actually more worth pondering than a simple decline because it indicates the good news has already been priced in once. My current feeling is that the market is trading not on "inflation is over," but on "no need for another tightening in the short term." These two things are very different. Core at 3.0% is still noticeably far from the 2% target, so the possibility of another hike in December hasn’t been completely ruled out. So this wave looks more like an emotional repair rather than a full return of risk appetite. Looking at sector strength and weakness, BTC pulled back after the rally; the resistance between 85200 and 86000 remains, while 83400 and 82600 below are the levels to defend next. The high-level consolidation pattern hasn’t broken. ETH is closely following with greater elasticity, but until it breaks above 2760, it looks more like an amplifier than a leader. On the altcoin side, ZEC touched 1494 then fell back to around 1435, with 1455 to 1470 turning into resistance, and 1420 and 139Last night was truly like walking through the gates of hell!
$BTC's fake breakout was very bearish. First, a big bullish candle broke through 86000, the group chat instantly erupted, all the news was positive, and the volume looked real too. Who wouldn't think it was about to take off? Brothers who chased the breakout on the right side probably got trapped as soon as they entered.
If I had also chased above 86000 last night, I might be done for now. $ETH was relatively calm and didn't follow the madness, so it managed to keep some lifeline.
I have to say, this trap was executed more convincingly than a real breakout, specifically to kill those who got overexcited. Brothers, did you escape last night or pay the tuition? #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Actually, Micron's earnings report, combined with Nvidia's significant increase in buyback authorization this week, both indicate the strong momentum and potential of the current AI narrative.
Many people worry about a bubble, but bubbles have always existed; it just depends on what stage the bubble is in. Given the current situation, the bubble remains within a controllable range, and AI is the core driving force of the global economy. This bubble can still expand.
Therefore, in the coming quarters, the AI narrative will only undergo structural differentiation within the industry, raising the bar for excellent earnings reports, but it will not burst directly.
Of course, as always, macroeconomic factors determine whether the money in our hands is expensive or not, and earnings reports determine whether we should pay for a company's valuation. Right now, the desire to pay and the money becoming more expensive are happening simultaneously, so various macro uncertainties are suppressing the gains of tech stocks.
That said, this isn't without benefits. If macro factors limit short-term gains, or if the macro environment tightens further to trim valuations, wouldn't that be a better opportunity to get in?
People say chasing highs is a curse, but ironically, many are afraid to buy at low prices and can only helplessly chase highs when "everyone is doing well," which is the real good time! So, those who chase highs aren't really that deserving of sympathy! #OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $NEAR has already entered the oversold zone, but "it's time to rebound" and "it has bottomed out" are completely different things.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are weak, with RSI at 21 and 43 respectively. Oversold conditions can explain the demand for a rebound, but they alone cannot prove a trend reversal; price stopping new lows is more convincing than any statement like "it can't fall further."
Current price is 4.789, about 0.98% above the 1-hour support at 4.742, and about 15.68% below the resistance at 5.54. Here, there is no shortage of directional guesses, but what is lacking is sustained movement after the price truly breaks through these boundaries.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 5.54 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 4.742, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 4.548. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 5.54 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Is this phase more like the start of emotional repair, or just a breather before a continuation of the downtrend?
The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the market and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle NiuNiu.【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC October 2】
Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC October 2
The key for BTC is not chasing highs, but whether 85274 can hold steady. This bottom line only includes the views of 2 recently verifiable traders, not pretending to be a complete top ten.
Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) original view on October 2: BTC's trend resembles 2023; if news or bond market shocks cause a deeper pullback, it will be a position worth watching, but fractals cannot be mechanically copied.
Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) original view on October 2: BTC consolidation almost done, short-term hopes to move toward 90000.
Editor’s real-time market analysis: Binance spot BTC around 84754, 24-hour range 83186—85274. The main route is clear: after holding 83186, a volume-driven hold above 85274 targets 86000 first, then watch for 90000 to test resistance; if it breaks below 83186 and cannot quickly recover, look for support at 82000.
Risks: Not a copy-trading signal; high leverage will amplify spikes, slippage, funding rates, and liquidation risks.
#BTC #ETH #OKB$BTC ETF's nine consecutive days of net inflows were interrupted on September 30.
The trending list still shows the old news of "continuous inflows," but the fund records have already turned the page.
Institutional funds also adjust their positions. They have budgets and deadlines for buying; when encountering rebalancing, redemptions, or risk control limits, they will still sell off. We can't see the true motives behind every trade, so don't treat all inflows as "long-term allocations" or all outflows as "short-term noise."
So what should we really focus on now?
Is whether the price can hold steady after outflows? Is there new subscription following up?
Everyone can profit easily when continuous inflows push prices up; but if the buying volume shrinks temporarily and there are still people willing to step in, that is true market support.
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Leverage Qualification: The Underlying Logic Behind Positions
Some wonder, with the same high leverage, why can Maji hold on? The answer lies not in courage, but in the layering of the underlying assets.
Look at his structure: 363 BTC at 40x full position. He dares to take the highest tier because BTC has the deepest liquidity, the cost of liquidating by crashing the market is high, and the forced liquidation price is pulled far away. The bet is on the macro cycle, not short-term fluctuations. ETH has 35,000 coins at 25x full position, one tier lower than BTC, but it bears the main profit force. With a larger scale, it has both large-cap support and ecological narrative flexibility. 25x balances efficiency and fault tolerance. HYPE is only given 10x. Mainstream coins have high leverage, altcoins low; leverage follows liquidity and volatility, not treated equally.
Retail investors often do the opposite: only 3-5x on BTC and ETH, but rush 20-30x on altcoins. As a result, they place the highest leverage where it is easiest to be stopped out and liquidity is thinnest, unable to hold for even a few days.
Therefore, leverage is not about who is more aggressive, but who deserves it. The more stable, deeper, and able to withstand liquidation battles the asset is, the higher the leverage it deserves; the lighter, more fragile, and more sentiment-dependent the asset is, the more it should be handled cautiously. $BTC The three positions collectively recovered, with Brother Maji's $150 million position bouncing back
After a round of pressure, Brother Maji's contract portfolio finally showed signs of repair. The total exposure is about $150 million, with all three positions warming up simultaneously, and the overall condition is significantly better than before.
$BTC remains the ballast stone: holdings increased to 369 coins, 40x full position, entry price 83799.60, unrealized profit about $53,100; liquidation price 70930.78, the safety buffer is still solid.
$ETH is the core profit source: 35,000 coins, 25x full position, cost 2675.61, unrealized profit about $158,000, firmly above the cost line. As long as Ethereum does not experience a deep pullback, the account confidence remains.
$HYPE is still the only position with unrealized loss, but the loss has narrowed from over $800,000 to -$136,200, with a decent recovery speed. Currently holding 206,000 coins, 10x full position, the base position has not been cut, and there is even a slight increase, continuing to bet on a rebound.
Overall, the three positions have shifted from weak to stable, the pattern continues to hold, waiting for the market to give the next direction. High leverage causes severe volatility; the above is only a review record and does not constitute investment advice.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 Trump publicly demands Powell resign from Federal Reserve Board position
Fact: On October 1, the Federal Reserve Inspector General's report stated there was no evidence of criminal or administrative misconduct in the $2.4 billion renovation project at the Fed headquarters, but management failures were found; on the same day, Trump posted on Truth Social that the renovation's "budget overrun speed set a record," demanding that former Chairman Powell resign from his still-held Federal Reserve Board position, and instructed the Attorney General to study the report to "decide what to do next," stating that if Powell does not resign, he "should be prosecuted by the government." Source: Trump's original Truth Social account; Sina Finance's "Global Market Report" follow-up.
Transmission chain: President publicly pressures sitting Federal Reserve Board member → narrative of "Federal Reserve independence" is damaged → market demands higher term premium to compensate policy uncertainty → upward pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury yields → suppresses growth stock valuations, benefits safe-haven assets like gold. SOL: Oscillating near 118, waiting for direction. Currently at 118.3, fluctuating between 116.6-119.5 in the last 24h. The 1-hour moving averages are intertwined and converging, MACD just formed a golden cross with expanding red bars, showing signs of a rebound but volume is insufficient. Difficult to expect major moves before tonight's non-farm payrolls. Support: 117 (previous low), 116.6 (today's low) Resistance: 119.5 (today's high), 120 (round number), 122.7 (previous high) Long positions: Aggressive entry near 117 with light positions, conservative entry at 116.6; take profit at 119.5-120. Short positions: Aggressive short near 120, conservative at 122.7; take profit at 118. Main strategy: High sell and low buy within 117-120 range, follow breakout afterward. OKB: Narrow oscillation at 121, playing dead before the conference. Currently at 121.2, 24h amplitude less than 1.5%, short-term moving averages all intertwined. MACD death cross but green bars are very short, neither bulls nor bears have strength. This is a typical low-volume sideways before a conference. Support: 120.5, 120 (MA200) Resistance: 122, 122.6 (previous high) Long positions: Aggressive entry at 120.5, conservative at 120 round number; take profit at 122. Short positions: Aggressive short at 122, conservative at 122.6; take profit at 121. Main strategy: Range grind between 120-122, direction will be chosen around the conference. Currently in a playing dead phase, avoid frequent trades. XRP: Weak rebound at 1.49, unlocking selling pressure still present. Currently at 1.493, after unlocking 1 billion tokens today, it didn't crash but also can't rally. 1-hour$ETH Why is Ethereum still going up? I really need to control you, Ethereum.
Day after day it doesn't drop properly, often going up, not caring about the bears at all.
It often rises near 2730, then falls back down, hovering around 2690.
When feeling good, it probes near 2670; when feeling bad, it just stays there.
I've summarized the pattern: it fluctuates back and forth by about twenty to thirty points.
Unless you have enough principal, it's hard to get a bite. Better wait for Ethereum to rise before adding more positions.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH You guys simply don't understand what it means to follow the trend.
$ZEC dropped from 1697 to 1307, a 300-dollar plunge. Count how many bullish candles there are?
Each rebound is weaker than the last, and each low is lower than the previous one. This is not a correction; this is a trend.
Look at the contract data. The funding rate for ZEC perpetual contracts has turned negative, meaning the shorts are starting to pay the longs, but the price is still falling.
What does this indicate?
It means the shorts are willing to pay to push the price down, and the longs can't even hold on while getting paid.
Open interest keeps declining; the longs who got liquidated are admitting defeat and exiting, while new shorts are entering.
The order book depth is also changing. Orders below 1380 are thin, and between 1355 and 1300 there is almost no decent buy support. Once it breaks 1380, the drop will accelerate.
Look at the broader market. Bitcoin surged to 85000 and then fell back, failing to hold even 85300. The major coins are like this; how tough do you expect ZEC to be?
This is the last chance before the non-farm payrolls. If it breaks 1460, I'll admit I'm wrong, but before that, the shorts won't surrender. If you dare to follow, now is the time.
$BTC $ETH
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 Daily Morning Market Briefing (2026-10-02)
One-sentence overview: Today's market pricing core logic is a tug-of-war between "US inflation data cooling vs. geopolitical and policy uncertainty heating up" — August PCE far below expectations cuts the probability of a rate hike in October by half, Nasdaq hits a record high, but on the same day the ISM price index soars, 10-year US Treasury yields break 5.34%, Trump publicly pressures Powell, government shutdown causes a data vacuum, and the risk of US-Iran war pins oil prices near $100; A-shares were absent during the holiday, Hong Kong stocks resume trading today, and after the holiday A-shares will price this entire combination at once.
US August PCE far below expectations, October rate hike probability halved.
Fact: On September 30 Eastern Time, BEA announced that August overall PCE year-on-year was 3.4% (expected 3.7%), month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.4%); core PCE year-on-year 3.0% (expected 3.3%), month-on-month 0.2% (expected 0.3%). BEA simultaneously implemented revisions to software/asset management/legal services price statistics and retroactively adjusted July PCE year-on-year from 3.7% down to 2.6%. After the data release, Nasdaq rose 1.05% to close at 27,078 points, a record high; S&P rose 0.66% to close at 7,721.64; CME FedWatch's probability of a rate hike in October dropped to 35–40%; New York Fed President Williams said rate hikes are "not urgent." Sources: BEA; CNBC, Reuters; CME FedWatch.NEAR took a hit from an Intents attack causing a $3.8 million hole, with the price crashing directly from above 5.4 down to around 4.7, a drop of over 14%. Withdrawal suspension is a short-term negative, but the market has partially digested this. On-chain, what's more concerning is that OKX received 502 bitcoins, while Binance had 8,200 bitcoins withdrawn; whales are rotating positions. A wallet holding 1,200 bitcoins dormant since 2011 suddenly activated—when old-timers move, it's never a small matter.
I took a sip of herbal tea from my thermos and continued watching the liquidation chart. Below 4.70, there is a large accumulation of long liquidity; above, from 5.00 to 5.20 is a dense liquidation zone for shorts. The MACD has formed a bearish crossover downward, with bullish momentum fading. Now, the 4.80 level is a vacuum zone for bulls and bears to battle. Liquidity will likely first lure a short squeeze upward, then reverse to break through 4.75 to hunt stop losses below.
In terms of trading, do not chase longs. Short directly if it breaks 4.75, targeting 4.60 to 4.70, with a stop at 4.88. If it holds above 4.90, consider a short-term long with a target of 5.05 and a stop at 4.78. At the current price near 4.80, it's best to wait and watch for a breakout signal.
$NEAR
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在
@OKX星球 Farewell to the bear market: Eight directions I'm watching for the next bull market
Looking back at 2026, it was the toughest year in the past five years and also the year I had the worst returns. But after a violent shakeout, chips have become lighter, the structure is actually healthier, institutionalization is now a fait accompli, and most retail investors can't withstand this kind of falling and grinding market. The directions for the next round are very clear: leading public chains, stablecoins, exchanges, oracles, staking, RWA, DeFi, and AI. It's only a matter of time before stablecoin scale breaks one trillion, and RWA solves the credit source that DeFi can't bypass. Directional targets: BTC 200,000, ETH 10,000, with many pullbacks and reversals in between. $BTC $ETH $SOLOctober 2, 2026
The core discussion covers three parts:
Macro: The core PCE annualized dropped to 3% in August, but the blogger believes this is due to an adjustment in statistical methods, and real inflation may not have decreased; September private sector added 90,000 jobs, higher than the expected 70,000; the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.295%, and if it breaks 5.5%, it will attract funds to flow from stocks and crypto to risk-free assets. Nonfarm payrolls and US rate hike expectations are bearish.
Market: Bitcoin fluctuated between 83,400 and 85,000 for a week, with daily charts sideways and weekly charts pulling back. It is recommended to wait for a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below support before following the trend. Ethereum faces resistance at 2,722 above and support at 2,646 below, with similarly limited room.
Viewpoint: No need to panic during the rate hike cycle; there will be bottom-fishing opportunities later; recent exchange vulnerabilities and ETHFI issues are risk releases, and altcoins chasing gains are less cost-effective than holding Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Finally, a reminder that this is a personal view on nonfarm data, which is likely bearish, and does not constitute any investment advice
$BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The 10-year US Treasury yield once surged to 5.3%, $BTC $ETH $ZEC gold and silver all started to come under pressure, only wide fluctuations, no real reversal upward.
Be patient, by the end of the year $BTC will rise to a position beyond your imagination. Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$CT short positions have a relatively high unit holding cost: current 4-hour rate -0.0922%, price +1.73%, open interest +4.77%. The rise is accompanied by increased positions; holding shorts past settlement faces both adverse price movements and funding fee expenses.$DOGE looks weak in the short term, with the current price at 0.0942 close to the intraday low, showing little volatility but closing at the lower end of the range. The main positions cleared today were long positions, with both the amount and number of trades far exceeding shorts. When the price dropped, longs were forced to close, indicating that leverage was squeezed out rather than new shorts entering to add positions. The forced selling is not yet finished, and the price lacks the fuel to move upward. The chart shows progressively lower highs, consistent with this assessment. The 7/25/99 moving averages are in a bullish alignment, seemingly supporting the price, but these averages are calculated from previous days' prices and are naturally lagging. Long leverage is being cleared out, and the lagging moving averages cannot hold up against the current selling pressure. The funding rate is slightly positive, only serving as background information and not as a basis for judgment. Conditions to turn bullish: reclaim and hold above the intraday high of 0.09608, indicating that the clearing of long positions is complete and the bearish outlook is invalidated. Until then, $DOGE will continue to seek support downward. $CAP Damn it! This $CAP chart is making my blood pressure skyrocket. At the 0.0711 level, the manipulative whales are clearly washing the plate repeatedly here, jumping up and down, only acting when retail traders' mentality is about to explode.
No news at all, purely a capital game, all the whales are calling each other idiots inside. Volume can't keep up; any rebound is just a chance for them to dump. Don't get emotional with it, if you need to run, you gotta run.
I placed a short at 0.0711, stop loss above 0.0760; if it breaks, I'll admit my mistake and leave. The first target on the downside is around 0.0620, whether it reaches depends on the whales' mood.
If you want to secretly ambush with me, click the market card below and manage your position yourself.
👇👇👇#Gold ETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, options volatility draws attention
Woke up this morning and made money again! Last night’s "deep V spike," my grid strategy directly feasted on it!
Last night $WDC (Western Digital) suddenly plunged to 441, then was instantly dragged back to 461. Usually, when trading, encountering such rapid up-and-down sweeps either causes liquidation or getting thrown off the trade, but my grid strategy (168U principal) quietly picked up all the low-position chips.
Total profit directly hit +34.32U (+20.33%)! The grid profit alone earned +36.97U. The best part is that the gap in the base position was completely filled by the grid, turning it into a profit!
Switching back to the market, $BTC is hovering above 84,700, ETH is doing okay, but $ZEC finally pulled back nearly 3% today.
ZEC, please crash soon! You keep surging dozens of points every day; even if you rise to the sky, I still won’t like you! (Actually, I’m just sour from missing out, my thigh is bruised from slapping it).
In this market, if you guess the direction wrong, you just get slapped back and forth. It’s still best to let the bots do the work. Don’t chase high-flying tokens, just honestly control your hands and happily go add a chicken leg.
Good morning, traders! "Don't mistake 'stopping the bleeding' for 'recovery'"
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, yet BTC surged from 58,000 to 86,000. Many are shouting "rate cut trade is coming," but actually, the script is misunderstood.
A rate cut trade means opening the floodgates: interest rates fall, liquidity flows out. A no-rate-hike trade is just a pause in tightening: rates remain around 4%, the faucet is no longer tightened, but it’s not opened either.
So this rally is not driven by incremental funds, but by short covering, passive ETF buying, and sentiment repair that "the worst moment has passed." The 10-year US Treasury yield once hit 5.25%, making the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets still glaring. Grayscale also frankly stated: the expected rate hikes won’t significantly change capital allocation, more like a mid-course brake in 1997 rather than the violent tightening of 2022.
This means: the bottom is more stable, but the ceiling is also low. The market is pricing in a higher probability of "status quo," not "imminent rate cuts." Without liquidity fuel, sentiment repair can only push the market so far, not all the way.
In short: the no-rate-hike trade provides support, not an engine. You can be glad you’re not getting hit for now, but don’t fantasize about someone handing out money. Mistaking "no longer getting worse" for "getting better" is the most dangerous mindset in this rally.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The on-chain snapshot shows a fee rate of 3 sat/vB, smooth. This number alone has no direction, but placed next to the BTC market verification at 7:31 this morning, it's interesting: $84,726, 24h +1.29%.
Price is inching up slightly, but the chain is empty without the need to compete for blocks. If this combination holds, it may indicate that the buying mainly comes from within exchanges, with on-chain transfers contributing little. This is just speculation, not a fact.
Based on past experience, panic selling or on-chain activity like inscriptions and runes usually push fees up. Neither of these signs is visible now.
So for traders, it’s more like background noise. What’s worth watching is the moment the fee rate continuously rises from 3 sat/vB, then judge whether someone is offloading or scrambling for coins. Until that point, this fee rate does not constitute a trading signal. 最近大家都在讨论山寨季，我拉了一下“排除前十名后的加密总市值”（TOTAL Ex Top 10）的月线图，发现几个有意思的信号。 历史级别的底部反弹 从图表上看，排除BTC、ETH等前十大资产后的总市值，目前回升至 245B（2456亿美元） 附近。 回顾前两次周期，这个指标在月线级别都走出了极其夸张的涨幅（+236% 到 +3600% 不等），随后才进入漫长的去泡沫化。当前K线呈现连续反弹，结构上处于新一轮周期的积累初期。 MACD月线级别的转折信号 副图MACD（12, 26, 9）出现了关键变化： 历史上每一次大行情启动前，MACD柱都会在低位由红转绿，快线有上穿慢线的趋势。 当前末端再次呈现这种低位转折迹象，长期趋势偏向多头的修复阶段。 结合当下的市场数据 光看图表还不够，当前宏观数据其实处于一个“过渡期”： 山寨季指数（Altcoin Season Index）近期快速攀升至 61 附近。 但距离真正的“山寨季确认线”（通常是 75）还有一定距离。 BTC主导地位（BTC.D）目前在 58.6% 左右徘徊，资金仍高度集中在比特币。 📌 我的判断： 现在更像是牛市中期的一次风Langlang shares: I'm back to talk gold again! 🌊
Tonight's non-farm payrolls drama, Langlang has already set up a small bench. Gold prices now feel like standing on the edge of a 4100 cliff, swaying with every breeze.
Langlang's rough logic: If non-farm payrolls surprise low (below 60,000), gold prices will quickly rebound, testing 4185-4200 first; if it exceeds expectations strongly (over 100,000), sorry, 4100 will likely break, and 4000 will be waiting to catch it.
But Langlang has to say something from the heart—don't just focus on the candlesticks, the real pressure on gold is the 5.3% "tightening curse" of US Treasury yields. Gold yields no interest, while money in bonds earns 5% passively, who still cares about gold? The dollar is also stuck above 101, so there's really no strong momentum for a big short-term rise.
However, Langlang is not pessimistic; central banks worldwide are still quietly hoarding gold, and the big game of de-dollarization is not over. Langlang thinks below 4000 is a good bargain.
In short: don't make rash moves before tonight's data comes out; get on board once the direction is clear. Langlang is going to watch the live stream first, will shout in the group if anything happens! 🏄♂️
$XAU $ETH $SOL
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5.3%, both hitting new 52-week highs. Bitcoin is around 83,800, with a 6.33% gain in September. October's historical data looks promising, but last October saw a 3.7% decline. The key factor is not the month but the interest rates: September just had a 25 basis point rate hike, and the dot plot still points to another one this year, with the decision on October 28. ETFs have had net inflows for nine consecutive days totaling nearly 3.1 billion, but on September 30, it turned to a net outflow of 148 million; the funds haven't left, just hesitating at the door. The forecast market gives a 48% probability of Bitcoin reaching 90,000 in October, but only a 7% chance of a new high before 2027. $BTC $ETHHello, fellow B friends, I am Old Gun~ Brother Chao 🤝
⚠️ My view:
The recent plunge in ZEC is not accidental; I will analyze it from multiple dimensions:
✅ Technical aspect:
On the 4-hour chart, MA5/MA10/MA20 are all in a bearish alignment, with moving averages exerting layered pressure; the 15-minute level shows a standard descending channel, price continuously running along the lower trendline, short-term EMA keeps turning downward, so rebounds are opportunities to reduce positions. After the high of 1697.45, bullish momentum exhausted, high-level trapped positions keep emerging, 24-hour decline is -3.80%, lowest hit 1305.25.
✅ Capital aspect:
The previous rise relied heavily on leveraged funds; this wave is a concentrated liquidation of longs, with a chain of long positions liquidated amplifying the drop; 24-hour turnover is 80,502,900 USDT, selling pressure continuously released.
✅ Fundamentals & sentiment:
Privacy coin regulatory expectations continue to tighten, combined with sector heat fading. With weakening overall market sentiment, high-level altcoins are prioritized for capital sell-off.
Short term, watch for support near 1305; once broken, downside space will further open.
🫳🏻 What do you think, buddy? Leave your thoughts.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
$ZEC $BTC $ETH The difference between official bridges and third-party bridges is not just the speed of fund arrival.
When entering Layer 2 from the $ETH mainnet, official bridges usually rely on the Layer 2's own settlement and proof mechanisms; third-party bridges, to achieve faster fund arrival, introduce liquidity providers, additional contracts, or validation networks. Both are called cross-chain, but the trust boundaries they assume are different.
Third-party bridges can improve the experience but also add new risks from contracts, signers, and liquidity. When choosing, you should ask who custody the assets, who confirms the messages, and whether you can exit through the underlying layer in case of anomalies, rather than just comparing fees and minutes. Faster speed sometimes just means someone else is bearing the waiting and charging a risk premium for you.
The form of assets may also change. Tokens bridged over are sometimes native issuances, sometimes just mapped certificates of locked assets. Having the same name and icon does not mean the redemption entity and risks are the same; contract addresses and issuance paths must be verified together.
Faster fund arrival is only an experience metric; the bottom-line security metric for bridging is whether you can retrieve the original assets in the worst case.
The bridge's name connects two chains, but what you really need to see clearly is how many people in the middle you must trust.The authors of EIP-8363 withdrew the proposal that sought to burn an increasing portion of the rewards of Ethereum validators. The change is not ruled out: it will now have an independent process that will extend until EthCC in April. The authors of EIP-8363, the proposal that suggested burning a growing proportion of the rewards of Ethereum validators as the amount of ETH staked increases, withdrew the initiative from the agenda of the upcoming Hego update$ZEC surged from 880 to 1,699 in less than 5 weeks, now back around 1,410. Can privacy coins still be chased?
Grayscale ZEC spot ETF has had net inflows for 4 consecutive weeks, with assets exceeding 900 million USD $BTC
BTC is consolidating below 84,000, why can ZEC have an independent market?
📍 ZEC around 1,410 | about 17% retracement from the September high of 1,699
📊 Reasons for strength:
· Grayscale ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) launched on August 25, with about 98 million USD inflow in a single $BTC — $83,448. Holding 85K range while stocks sell off on surging yields.
Stocks: S&P 500 down 0.21%. 10-year yield at 5.34%, highest since 2002.
The read: Bitcoin isn't following equities down. Liquidity rotation is happening.
#BTCInflowETHOutflow
#StrategyBuys1665BTC 99 million USD, just in one day.
When I first saw this number, my initial reaction was: Oh, another stock token.
To be honest, I've been watching this since last year. It seemed quite novel back then, so I bought a little to test the waters. After holding for two months, I found the liquidity was extremely thin, almost nonexistent. I couldn't sell even if I wanted to, and eventually exited with a small loss.
So when I saw 99 million in a single day and a total of 1.6 billion, I took a closer look.
The money is definitely flowing in, no doubt about that. Even Armstrong himself transferred, which means the official side acknowledges this data.
But what I want to say is something else.
1.6 billion sounds like a lot, but spread over days, it's just so-so. What really matters is whether this volume can hold steady or if it’s just a one-time surge.
My own lesson is: don’t rush in just because of a single-day volume spike; first see if it can maintain that level for several days in a row.
At this point, I’m not chasing it; I’m just watching the volume over the next few days.
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $ETH 10.2 Crypto Market Brief: BTC Breaks 85,000, Rebounds Ahead of Nonfarm Payroll Data
BTC rose over 1% intraday to surpass 85,000, with CME futures hitting a high of 85,600, awaiting tonight's nonfarm payroll report.
• BTC: Current price around $84,700, resistance at 85,500, support at 83,500, up about 1.2% in 24h.
• ETH: Around $2,695, slight 0.4% increase in 24h, following the rebound but less resilient than BTC, resistance at 2,720.
• Altcoins: NEAR dropped 8% and suspended trading due to a $3.8 million hack; frequent security incidents, avoid bottom-fishing problematic coins.
Key Influencing Factors
✅ Bullish: BTC ETF net inflows have continued for 9 days, totaling over $3 billion, retail buying is warming up.
⚠️ Bearish: Rising 10-year US Treasury yields suppress risk assets; tonight's nonfarm data may increase volatility.
Short-term Outlook
Focus on tonight's nonfarm payroll data and CME futures expiration. After BTC breaks 85,000, confirmation of holding above is needed; avoid chasing highs before data release. 🔥 $QNT is down 12%, but the fundamental story just got interesting
The Clearing House selected Quant to support its On-Chain Money Initiative, designed for clearing and settling tokenized bank deposits.
The key part: this connects blockchain infrastructure with banking rails like RTP and CHIPS.
📉 $QNT is down around 12%, but this looks like one of those cases where price and fundamental news are moving in opposite directions.PCE good news but hard to boost, crypto market awaits "real money"
August core PCE year-on-year at 3.0%, below expectations, inflation continues to cool. Normally, risk assets should be boosted, but the crypto circle's reaction is restrained. The issue is not macro, but funds: institutions reduce risk exposure, and off-exchange incremental inflows are slow to arrive.
BTC: Large funds take the lead in defense. Some institutions cut BTC and exit SOL, and whales also shrink positions before data release. Lack of supporting buying, the positive news is more like a window for reducing positions.
ETH: USDAU launched on six chains, expanding the reach of USD stablecoins under the MiCA framework, a long-term positive for ETH settlement layer. But short-term trend remains weak, ecological progress is overshadowed by selling pressure.
SOL: Relatively resilient performance, institutional liquidation dampens sentiment. Ecological enthusiasm has not faded; if whales do not return, volatility may be amplified.
PCE cooling is a positive signal, but institutional divergence indicates market confidence has not recovered. After overselling, capital inflow confirmation is needed, not just relying on data. The next key is whether incremental funds re-enter the market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $ETH last night once again stood above 2700, forming a small double bottom. Habitually entered long positions, but most likely it will enter a frustrating consolidation phase. I don't like trading breakouts in this state. After peaking at 2806, it entered a red box consolidation. The resistance above is firm at 2806, and support is expected around 2630-2620.
This is the downside of breakout trading: if it doesn't take off, it grinds you down. A tight stop loss of about 2 points is very easy to be triggered by spikes during the moving average entanglement washout period. Those who endure will stand out; those who don't will exit. Without volume breakout above 2806, I won't easily add positions.
$BTC support/resistance at 82600 has now shifted up to 83,111. As mentioned yesterday, if it continues to hold, then 85,500, 86,160, and 87,900 are the three resistance levels within a 1.5K range during the first 5 days after the quarterly line opening.
This is the first time giving 3 POIs, but they are within a short range, so the operation is going well. If the bears successfully break below 83,111, this will also be the first support area. #首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT #OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 Backed by Multicoin, a16z, Andreessen, Polychain, building layer-1 chain. So the setup: 118.24, neither here nor there in the 24h band. It's a tug-of-war — nobody owns it yet. The 2H sits 0.1% under its MA20. **My view: No side yet — wait for a signal.** Acting before the direction shows up is just gambling. I've got 117.34 as the line in the sand and 118.32 as the line to chase. My stance: no move on $SOL until it's clear.Before the US market opens, let's be straightforward: this rebound has no money behind it.
BTC 84728, up 0.71%. ETH 2701, up 0.73%. SOL 118.35, up 0.88%. Everything looks red, but the total market 24h trading volume is only 97.467 billion, down 9.59%. The mainstream coin sector's trading volume is 1.068 billion, cut by 13.94%, and discussion heat dropped 44.73%.
Price is rising, volume is fleeing, discussion is cooling. This is not buying pressure, it's a stalemate because no one is selling.
Where did the money go? Look at two places.
First, ETFs. BTC ETF daily net outflow is 9.8 million USD, with a cumulative outflow of 196 million in the past 30 days. Continuous bleeding, not large in scale, but the direction is clear—no incremental funds are entering.
Second, even harsher is the bond market. The 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.62% intraday, the highest since June 2002; the 10-year broke 5.3%, also a new high since 2002. Barclays directly stated: if AI investment really pays off, the reasonable value for the 30-year yield could reach 6%.
With long-term rates capped here, the valuation denominators of all risk assets are being shredded, and crypto can't escape.
Looking at inflation and rate hikes again. August core PCE year-on-year is 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%. But don't be too quick to celebrate—this decline mainly comes from statistical adjustments, not a real drop in price pressure. The market cut the October rate hike bet from 70% to 37%. The cooling of bets is real, but 3.0% is still far from the 2% target, and the rate hike blade hasn't been sheathed.
The US stock market is even more divided: Nasdaq up 0.24%, Dow down 0.86%. Micron's earnings exploded, quarterly revenue 54.23 billion, up 379% year-on-year, with over 75% of 2027 capacity already locked by customers, and they say the supply-demand imbalance in 2027 and 2028 will be worse than 2026. AI hardware is truly booming, but all funds are crowded into AI hardware, not a drop has spilled into the crypto space.
ZEC down 2.82%, those who surged too much earlier are taking a hit first. BTC market cap dominance is 58.6%, money is shrinking into the big coins, not rushing out.
My judgment: tonight's 8:30 PM Nonfarm Payrolls is the only variable. The market expects 100,000 new jobs, unemployment rate 4.2%, August was 162,000. If data is below 80,000, rate hike bets will collapse another notch, crypto will leverage the momentum to surge; if over 120,000, long-term rates will push higher, BTC 84000 resistance won't hold, first look at 82000.
I won't chase at this level. Low-volume rebound plus ETF outflows structurally don't support chasing highs. Waiting for Nonfarm.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #USMarket #Nonfarm #Macro
The above does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; manage your positions yourself. Address 0xC1C…F48b6 opened a position 4 hours ago with 8.07 million USD $ETH, has accumulated 12,134.13 ETH since 09.02, with a total value of 32.41 million USD, average price $2671.25, now deposited in Aave
Wallet address 0xC1CdaA40c85d37B354BF8a016C90265241DF48b6I opened a short position, but my heartbeat hasn't slowed down.
I glanced at the position ratio: long accounts 27.69%, short accounts 72.31%, long-short ratio 0.38. Shorts are as crowded as the morning rush hour. $USELESS has dropped from 0.358 all the way down to 0.238, now lying flat like a dead fish. This kind of market is the scariest: retail investors are clustered shorting, and the manipulative whales could suddenly pump a big bullish candle, burning short stop losses like kindling.
But I’m still holding the short for three reasons.
First, the daily MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down overhead, and the MACD is expanding below the zero line. The uptrend structure is already broken; the current sideways movement looks more like no one is stepping in to buy.
Second, the non-farm payroll and interest rate decision windows are approaching, risk capital is tightening, and altcoin liquidity will only worsen. Meme has no fundamentals; when BTC shakes, it just bleeds out.
Third, if the whales want to trigger a short squeeze, they wouldn’t pick a middle level like 0.238. They’re more likely to push down first, clear leveraged longs, then lure shorts in, and finally spike the price. Right now, it’s a battle of mentality.
I opened my short at 0.23713, with a stop loss above 0.28. If it breaks below 0.23, I’ll keep holding, targeting 0.18 first, then further down to 0.15. My position isn’t heavy, and the risk-reward ratio is still acceptable.
Fear or not, the short position remains open.
$BTC $ETH
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Large on-chain addresses have shown continuous outflows above 2.88, while stablecoin net inflows have not kept pace, indicating that whales are not actively adding positions at this level. The buy orders at the 2.83 level are thin, and the short liquidity accumulated between 3.03 and 3.07 is actually creating a pullback. The MACD on the hourly chart shows a bearish crossover with volume bars continuously shrinking, suggesting that the current push is driven more by momentum than by new capital.
Just parked the car by the roadside, my phone's order reminders are buzzing so much my pockets are numb, and my eyes are still fixed on the dense long positions on the liquidation heatmap.
There is a large backlog of long liquidation chips between 2.47 and 2.75, with 2.71 as a short-term watershed. Since the main force is not rushing to push in the divergence zone, it is highly likely to first dip down to eat liquidity. In terms of operation, do not chase highs; lightly buy on dips between 2.71 and 2.74, set a defensive stop loss at 2.64, take the first profit at 2.98, and after a breakout, look towards 3.05.
$MOVR
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
@OKX星球 $ZEC finally got the direction right once, going all the way from over 1600 to now.
The support level has also been broken, and the next target is to see 1300.
I estimate that 1400 will not hold at all in this wave of decline.
Why do I say 1400 won't hold?
Because after breaking below 1400, the trend is completely changed.
Secondly, below is a vacuum zone, and above are all trapped positions from chasing high prices, so the short-term manipulators definitely won't push it up to let them break even.
Moreover, the non-farm payroll data will be released on October 2, and there is an interest rate hike meeting at the end of October. These macro pressures are gradually piling up. For altcoins like ZEC, once the funds withdraw, it’s not something that can be resolved in a day or two. #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $BTC $ETH AAVE is still strengthening, but measure your exit before chasing!
$AAVE 166.69u, up 5.58% in 24 hours, up 11.64% in the past seven days. The strength is there, but technically the more important question is: at what retracement point will the original bullish thesis fail? I will first look for the most recent pullback low confirmed by subsequent rallies on the 1-hour chart as a structural observation point, then compare the distance from the entry price to that low and to the previous high. If the price is already far from the low but close to the previous high, chasing in is not worthwhile. If it later breaks above the previous high and then retests and holds, it can be reassessed.
$DOGE 0.09449u, daily gain only 0.05%, still down 3% for the week. Here I pay more attention to the speed of the rebound: if the drop took two 1-hour candles but the recovery took six candles and only recouped half, it indicates low repair efficiency, so don’t be optimistic just by counting green candles. Conversely, if the downtrend range is quickly recovered and the subsequent pullback is significantly smaller, buyers are more likely regaining control. The 0.10u level is about 5.8% from the current price, so use it as a round number observation target without assuming it will definitely be reached.
$PENDLE reported 2.370u at 23:55 last night, down 5.51% in the past seven days. I will first see if the decline is slowing before discussing a reversal. Technically, volume and price movement must be considered together: if volume increases but no new lows are made, there may be support, but a rebound surpassing the previous high is still needed; if volume expands and the decline deepens, sellers remain dominant. Low volume does not necessarily mean a bottom either; it could just mean both buyers and sellers are temporarily pausing.Some friends have been expecting a major correction since the rebound in July. It's not that I'm overly optimistic, but I want to tell you a clear reality: the alternation between bear and bull markets and the small bull phase next year will not have deep corrections; there will only be more rises and fewer falls, with the bottom gradually being lifted higher. This forms the fundamental logic for holding spot positions with confidence for the mid-to-long term starting from June this year to maximize profits.
Currently, this phase is like a car driving uphill. On the way forward, it’s impossible to move backward. There won’t be a big correction on the flat ground before reaching the mid-mountain; it will only pull back to accumulate energy near major resistance levels after each surge, then continue to rise in a relay. This major direction is unshakable and will definitely not fall back to 70,000 or 60,000. From July to August, it was repeatedly emphasized that this rebound is a reversal, fundamentally different from the oversold rebound from March to May. The highest level of the March-May rebound was seen on the weekly chart, but by early September, I was already seeing monthly and 45-day moving average levels. Without seeing these two levels, it would have been impossible to fully capitalize on the rally from 80,555 to 87,350 in one day last Monday.
Therefore, don’t waste too much energy and capital on short-term shorts; buying the dips is the ultimate winning strategy.
I only consider corrections at the daily chart level. For hourly-level adjustments, you need to watch the market closely and trade quickly in and out. If you have the energy, you can participate with small positions, but don’t get carried away. The lines on the screen move like an ECG, and I just sit there staring, my hands actually itching to act. The system clearly indicates oversold, logically this should be the point to enter on the left side, but looking at this volume, there isn't even a decent rebound momentum. That voice in my head saying "why not give it a try" has circled hundreds of times. This is the most frustrating part of trading; most of the time, losses aren't from the operation itself but from not being able to endure the loneliness. Now watching the account lie still is even more painful than losing money, always feeling like I'm wasting the market opportunity. Forget it, I'll shut down the computer and go for a run. This kind of low-volume consolidation is for those who want to gamble; holding the position is the premise for survival.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI $CAP Damn it! This CAP market is making my blood pressure spike.
At the 0.0718 level, the dog market maker keeps placing and withdrawing orders repeatedly—pure shakeout tactics. The candlestick volume has shrunk and moved sideways for six hours, the MACD fast and slow lines have merged into one, a trend reversal is right in front of us. 😂
The resistance at 0.0745 is tight, and the support at 0.0685 bounces immediately upon touch—a classic capital showdown pattern. At times like this, don’t hesitate; just short with the trend.
Enter around 0.0718, stop loss at 0.0742, take profit first target at 0.0688, if broken look to 0.0655. Those who understand know, the harsher the dog market maker shakes out now, the harder the dump later 🐶
For those wanting to follow, just click the token market card below to enter, don’t chase highs or hold losing positions.
The above is not investment advice, trade at your own risk.
👇👇👇⚡ FRIDAY MAY DECIDE BTC’S NEXT MOVE
All eyes are on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.
With PCE showing signs of cooling, Friday’s jobs report could quickly shift expectations around the Fed’s next move.
➤ Strong NFP → fewer cuts priced in
➤ Weak NFP → more easing expectations
➤ Either outcome → volatility for BTC
$BTC is hovering near the $87.4K resistance zone.
If NFP delivers a surprise, that level could become the battleground.
Watch the data. Watch the reaction. 📊