Orbit Post Sitemap
10.3｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: liquidity is thin over the weekend, mainly short on rallies, no chasing longs without incremental positive news
$BTC is currently around 84600. Last night, the non-farm payrolls only added 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and August was revised down to 133,000. The price instantly surged to 87200, then was pushed back below 84000 and consolidated. The issue is not the candlestick itself, but that the 87300 level still hasn't held with volume; longs accumulated on the positive news, but with thin weekend liquidity, the rally is easily crushed
$ETH is now around 2680, moving in sync with BTC, last night's high of 2778 also failed to hold
No major data over the weekend, the real risk is liquidity. The weak non-farm data has already lowered the October rate hike expectations, but the price couldn't hold 87200, indicating selling pressure above remains. In this situation, if no one supports it during the Asia-Europe session, BTC could retest 83800 or even drop to 82000
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 86000-87200, target around 83800-82000.
ETH: Short between 2740-2780, target around 2650-2580.
If BTC breaks above 87300 with volume, cancel shorts immediately, never stubbornly fight the trend.
What do you think will happen after the weekend? Will BTC first drop to 82000 or break through 87300 directly? An old wallet dormant for 15.4 years since 2011 has moved, transferring 20.43 $BTC with fees under 1 dollar, moving into SegWit, without touching any exchange deposit addresses.
The market is indeed starting to shout again: Mentougou is about to crash, Silk Road old coins are coming out.
Don’t rush. The early transfer records of this wallet are indeed tagged with Mt. Gox and Silk Road, but that’s because in 2011 there were only a few channels for transferring coins, which doesn’t mean today’s batch of coins are those “dirty bullets.” The key is the action—no deposits, no orders placed, no signatures entering any known exchange hot wallets. It’s just an old miner moving their holdings, don’t scare yourself.
What’s really worth looking at is the flavor when the following data sets are put together.
Glassnode confirmed today: the sell wall of $BTC between $85,000 and $85,500 above was forcibly eaten by buy orders, and the remaining sell orders have mostly been withdrawn. This position was suppressed for almost a week, every time it surged up it was pushed back down, now the wall is gone. The selling liquidity above is decreasing, not increasing.
But more interesting is another set of data. In the past 30 days, the scale of stablecoins transferred by whales into Binance increased from 21.7 billion to 30.5 billion, a growth of over 40%. On one side, ETF outflows and the market shouting “fund heat cooling down,” on the other side, whales quietly moving ammunition into exchanges. When these two things happen simultaneously, guess which is noise and which is signal?
That 148.7 million ETF outflow ended a nine-day inflow streak, true, but the cumulative inflow over those nine days was 3 billion USD. One outflow reversing the trend? Too early.
As for the whales, I have to be honest. The market is still shouting that they are “holding 33,950 $ETH and 409 $BTC long positions,” but on-chain data shows they are continuously reducing positions, currently holding 35,200 $ETH and 272 $BTC, with total unrealized profit narrowing from the peak to $73,000. This is not a “holding bullish” script, it’s a fight while retreating. Big players are clearer-headed than retail investors, don’t bolster yourself with others’ old positions.
Looking at the macro side. September’s nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, expected was 90,000, and the previous value was revised down to 133,000, with unemployment rising to 4.2%. After this report, the market’s pricing for continued rate hikes this month dropped directly to 13.8%, and the probability of no rate hike soared above 86%. Lower interest rate expectations mean easing for risk assets.
Last night $BTC plunged from 87,200 to 85,200, $ETH dropped from 2,777 to 2,690, with total liquidations approaching 600 million, including 128 million from shorts and longs also taking hits. This is a two-way shakeout, first squeezing shorts then killing longs, clearing out weak hands.
My judgment remains unchanged. Old coins waking up doesn’t mean selling, the disappearance of the sell wall doesn’t mean no one is selling, one ETF outflow doesn’t mean funds are retreating. Whales are stocking up, selling pressure is being digested, macro is turning dovish. If these three lines resonate, an accelerated upward move is just a matter of time.
Don’t move your core positions. Short-term spikes are noise, holding on is the skill.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $ZEC yesterday indicated that the pullback is not over yet, watch: 1280/1300. Today the lowest dipped to 1270 where buying support began. See if it closes around 1300 today; if it stabilizes after the next hour, you can lightly position long. If it breaks below 1270, it will return to the 1000-1300 range box, and you can buy around 1000. Set stop loss around 980. Personal opinion.Non-farm data released, $BTC sharply broke out of the consolidation range then fell back, with 24-hour liquidations exceeding 570 million at one point, cutting two groups of people at both ends.
The non-farm payrolls announced last night for September only added 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000. Moreover, July and August were revised down by a total of 60,000, with July's data even turning negative.
When the data came out, the brothers in the group chat exploded, cursing and complaining that the US was faking data. But we have to admit, whether it's fake or not, the situation looks very good:
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 5.18, oil prices are also declining, giving risk assets a breathing window. The rate hike expectation has even shifted to December.
Controlling market expectations to control inflation is one of the Fed's jobs. Data fabrication is one of the strategies.
So the divergence in capital flows has intensified: BTC spot ETFs saw an inflow of $102.7 million on Thursday (IBIT alone nearly $200 million), ending outflows; $ETH ETFs have outflows for the third consecutive day, totaling over $110 million in three days—the narrative of BTC strong and ETH weak is deepening.
The SEC made two moves: a 760-page custody rule allowing institutions to self-custody crypto assets, and a joint statement with the CFTC clarifying that spot digital commodities can be traded on registered exchanges. Regulatory infrastructure is being added.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, plus the National Day holiday, so the recovery rally is likely to be on low volume; don't mistake the rebound for a reversal. Everyone's piling in
$ETH Ethereum long position at 2671, let's see if it can pull back above 2700
$ARB long position opened at 0.1925 after waking up
Let's see if it can reach above 0.2, moving in sync with Ethereum
Ethereum is still rising but ARB has pulled back a bit, hold steady at 0.195
$ZEC around 1315, really want to go long and test the waters, it broke below 1300 last night, Ethereum dropped 100 points, and it did the same
Last night US stocks surged straight up, Bitcoin also shot up to around 87000, Ethereum followed upwards
Then suddenly after 10 o'clock, the whale flipped faster than flipping a page, smashed down hard, burying all the long chasers
Good news fully priced in then reversed to cut, if everyone can see the good news, then it's not really good news
But now I think it's possible to go long
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Continuing to share two sets of long positions, one profitable and one losing, this is the truest reflection of the market.
NEAR 20x full position long, holding 100,000 tokens, average holding price 4.5690, current unrealized profit 27,291U, return rate 112.76%. This trend was captured quite smoothly, with the account profit doubling, but the maintenance margin rate is only 2.25%. With 20x leverage, even a small pullback can significantly erode profits, so I dare not be careless.
On the other hand, BNB is also a 20x full position long, holding 1,000 tokens, average holding price 779.89, currently unrealized loss 8,526U, drawdown 21.96%. After entering, the market weakened and got stuck, maintenance margin rate is 3%, full position holding pressure is considerable.
Trading is never just about always winning. With the same 20x full position, some trades follow the trend and profit, others go against the trend and get stuck. High leverage amplifies profits but also amplifies risks.
Unrealized profit is just a number on paper, unrealized loss is a real account drawdown. Do not be greedy when following the trend, do not stubbornly hold when against the trend, always keep an eye on margin safety, that is the fundamental way to survive in this market.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 As soon as the non-farm payroll data was released, short positions were first eliminated
$BTC current price 86400U, up 3.2% in 24 hours.
Yesterday the data looked pessimistic, and many wanted to short.
What is this price level:
86400 is the upper boundary of the recently broken consolidation range.
The 3.2% rise is not a slow climb; it’s a rapid inflow of funds after the data release.
Who is placing orders here:
Short stop-loss orders are placed just above the range’s upper boundary.
Once the price touches, the stop-loss automatically turns into buy orders.
Buy orders push the price, triggering the next batch of stop-losses.
Those wanting to short are focusing on macro data.
At the moment the data lands, what moves first is positions, not judgment.
Technical analysis tends to fail at this time.
This $BTC rally is driven by the shorts’ own stop-losses.
It’s not new bullish money, but forced liquidations.
Stop-loss orders placed at that range have already been swept away.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC @JM BTC / ETH intraday long position fire control, real-time data (current price based on market quotes, do not use old prices) 🎯
BTC/USDT current price $84,592 (24h -0.02% | High 87,222 Low 83,840)
📡 Daily strong bullish (price ≫ EMA21 82,499 ≫ EMA50 78,542), 4h EMA21 84,490, 1h EMA200 84,118 form a pullback support zone; current price is slightly below the 24h range midline, indicating a pullback structure
📍 Ambush zone: 84,300–84,540 (4h EMA21 + 1h EMA200 support zone, do not chase higher near current price)
🛡️ Defense line: $83,750 (invalid if breaks 24h low 83,840, -0.9%)
🎯 TP1: $85,100 (+1R, halve position at 1h EMA21/85k level)
🎯 TP2: $85,760 (+2R)
🎯 Upside target: $87,220 (24h high)
$ETH
⚠️ Technical analysis is for reference only, the market carries risks — JM Trading Team$BTC is currently around 86,400 USDT, up about 3.2% in 24 hours. September's non-farm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of about 90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Previous months' employment data were also revised downward. After the data release, the market quickly repriced the Fed's October policy expectations, with BTC short-term funds clearly flowing back, once pushing above $87,000. This again shows that relying solely on technical patterns can easily fail when facing macro data of this level. The original consolidation range was directly broken, and after short positions were concentratedly stopped out, the upward momentum further accelerated. $ETH is currently about 2,745 USDT, up 2.1% in 24 hours. ETH is following BTC's rebound but with relatively mild strength, currently more like waiting for further capital inflow. Short-term focus is on the 2,780–2,800 range; if volume does not continue to expand, chasing the rise still requires caution. $DOGE is currently about 0.162 USDT, up 4.7% in 24 hours. DOGE's volatility is more influenced by market sentiment and capital flow; once the market heats up, the amplitude of rises and falls will significantly enlarge. Short-term attention can be paid to trading volume and capital changes, but without sustained capital support, chasing highs is not cost-effective. This non-farm payroll release sends a very clear signal to the market: cooling employment is increasing expectations that the Fed will pause further rate hikes, but inflation and high long-term US Treasury yields remain variables that cannot be ignored.The moment the non-farm payroll data was released, I laughed.
Not because the employment data was bad, but because I felt sorry for those still holding long positions in SanDisk.
New jobs added were only 29,000, expected 90,000, far below expectations; unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Market expectations for rate cuts heated up, Bitcoin surged directly to 87,000, with an intraday increase of over 3%.
In contrast, SanDisk remains stuck at 1737, without even a decent rebound.
There is a saying in the market: "Good news that doesn't cause a rise is actually bad news."
The macro environment is clearly warming up, risk assets are collectively strengthening, so why is SanDisk motionless? The essence is that no incremental funds are willing to enter.
David Tepper completely liquidated his position in Q2, not leaving a single share; Renaissance Technologies nearly wiped out its holdings, reducing by 99.4%. Morningstar's fair value estimate is only 1000, the current price premium has already exceeded 70%.
Institutions continue to flee, valuations are sky-high, and there is no elasticity despite positive stimuli. These three factors combined make the direction actually very clear.Sharing two current long positions that are stuck, to show friends in the group the other side of real trading.
SNDK long position with 4x leverage, full position, holding 30 units, currently floating a loss of 1662U, drawdown 12.89%. Small position for trial and error, there is volatility, but the position is controllable.
Focus on the HYPE position, 7000 units long with 4x leverage, full position, floating loss of 32456U, drawdown 20.7%. This market move was below expectations, continuous pullback after entry, the drawdown on the account looks painful.
Many people only like to show profitable trades, rarely willing to face floating losses. Contract trading inherently involves both profits and losses; when you have big profits, there are also stages of being stuck and holding positions.
4x leverage may seem not high, but full position mode still hides risks. Once the maintenance margin rate is breached, forced liquidation will be triggered. Holding positions is not a reckless gamble; you must think ahead about your bottom line, reduce positions and stop losses without hesitation. The market will not always follow our predictions; respect the market and control your position size—that is the fundamental for long-term survival.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The nonfarm payrolls were shockingly bad, and $BTC's first reaction was to surge to 87,238—but it didn’t hold that breath, and a few hours later, all the gains were given back.
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected roughly 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, also higher than expected. Even worse, the previous two months were sharply revised down—August from 162,000 to 133,000, July from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, totaling 60,000 fewer jobs added over two months. September hourly wages rose only 0.1% month-over-month, showing cooling in both employment and wages.
After the data release, the market reacted textbook-style: weak employment lowered the probability of another rate hike in October, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all rose together, US Treasury yields fell accordingly, while oil prices dropped more than 3%. BTC followed this logic and surged to 87,238.3.
But screenshots show this high point didn’t hold—RSI dropped from an overbought zone near 80 to an oversold zone near 20, and the current price fell back to 84,673.7, basically giving back all the "data-driven" gains. This indicates the news triggered an emotional reaction at the moment it landed, but the buying momentum didn’t follow through, and the rally couldn’t sustain its own weight.
The real variable isn’t whether the nonfarm payrolls were bad or not, but whether the October rate hike will proceed as planned—the rise in the unemployment rate in this report is mainly due to an increase in labor force participation, not simply worsening employment. How the Federal Reserve interprets this detail is more critical than the headline numbers.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $AXS surged into trending searches but only rose 8.4%, volume ratio 5.541 tells the truth
Wow, $AXS quietly climbed into CoinGecko trending searches, only +8.4% in 24h, but the money arrived first—24h trading volume 12,317,950 USDT, compared to the 30-day average volume ratio of 5.541. My direct judgment: bullish, if the pullback to 1.215 doesn't break, I'll buy the dip.
Bullish logic: First, volume, the 30-day average volume ratio of 5.541 is a clear signal, the previous hour's 15m average volume is 198,065, real money is entering. Second, structure, daily RSI at 67.6 is strong, MACD golden cross above zero line with expanding red bars, MA7 above MA30 for the 14th day. Third, position, 30-day range position at 0.845, fear-greed index 67, market phase is offensive.
Resistance above: 1.2963 (24h high)
Support below: 1.14796 (4h SAR)
Watershed: reclaiming 1.263 restarts the rally, losing 1.215 turns bearish, breaking 1.14796 means exit
Volume surge, trending searches, and bullish alignment of three indicators resonate together, execute buy on pullback. Current price 1.2328 entry, stop loss 1.14796, breakout above 1.2963 targets new space. Watching the market, follow for the next signal.
$AXS $BTCIn September, the US added only about 31,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the market's previous expectation of about 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly earnings fell back to about 3.0%, while employment data for the previous two months were collectively revised down by about 60,000. From these data, signs of cooling in the US labor market are indeed becoming increasingly apparent. Normally, weakening economic data might strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to slow tightening or even shift future policy, supporting risk assets. BTC also quickly surged at that time, once reaching around $87,300. But the problem is—positive macro data does not necessarily mean prices can only rise. After BTC surged, it quickly fell back, with an intraday high of about $87,200, then dropping to a low near $83,200, and now rebounding to around $84,500. This kind of movement is actually very typical: the news is somewhat positive, but funds may choose to take profits at the high, causing the price to "rise first and then fall." I myself shorted near $83,500 yesterday, originally thinking there was resistance above, but BTC directly broke upward, and this trade reminded me: macro logic can help judge the environment, but what really determines whether a trade succeeds is the price itself. Next, I will focus on observing two areas: 📌 Above: near $85,500 If BTC can stabilize again and volume expands simultaneously, it indicates that buying may be retaking control of the short-term structure. 📌 Below: $83,200 Why do the big players keep making money? The secret is here
Actually, the secret is:
1. They have more capital than you
2. Their positions are relatively low
3. They are more patient than you
4. And again, they have more capital than you
Talking about technical aspects, analyzing the market,
it's all nonsense, it doesn't exist,
it's just guessing, there's no real technique.
You guess, will $BTC go up or down in October.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Today's position sharing: main position is a BTC long with 50x full margin layout, holding 140 coins at an average price of 82869.3. Currently, the unrealized profit is over 250,000 U, with a return rate exceeding 105%. This position has been held for a long time, enduring the volatile shakeout to capture this upward dividend.
A small position is allocated to SKHY long with 7x full margin, showing slight unrealized profit, used for trial rotation in small-cap coins.
But everyone must clearly see the data: BTC at this level maintains a margin rate of only 1.00%, with a liquidation price at 77712.6, which is like a sword hanging overhead. High leverage profits look tempting, but if the market quickly retraces even slightly, liquidation will be triggered instantly.
Unrealized profit is just a number on paper; only realized profit counts as earnings. Leverage trading can make money quickly, but a single large bearish candle can wipe it out. For any position, never lose respect for risk.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $SPCXB's strong momentum continues, but crowding risk is also rising
$SPCXB is up 6.56% in the last 24 hours, currently priced at 158.92. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 96 and 75 respectively. The strength is real, and so is the crowding. The question is not whether it can keep going, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Price levels are more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 6.29% above the 1-hour support at 148.93 and about 0.65% below the resistance at 159.95. Looking at these two distances together reveals which side requires more evidence. Focusing only on price changes can easily mistake the space already traveled as if it hasn't started yet.
Volume does not support the price movement: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.03 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can still move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the trend. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s easier to understand this phase as an equipment acceptance test: running without load doesn’t mean completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels provide results first, then discussing direction will be more honest. Do you think this is a normal overheating of a strong trend, or has the risk already run ahead of the space? The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the trend and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.Brothers, the market just delivered a crazy rollercoaster! 🎢 $BTC suddenly jumped nearly 2,000 points, while $ETH ripped higher in minutes. My $ARB 50x short took a serious hit — entry around 0.22025, with the position showing a huge unrealized loss. Then, just as quickly, BTC and ETH pulled back and the market flipped again. I re-entered an $ARB short around 0.2076 after the first position was shaken out. ARB dipped near 0.206 and stalled. Now I’m watching closely. If the rebound fails, beaEvery time it rises because of the non-farm payrolls, it falls back to the original place the next day.
Yesterday I originally planned to short Ethereum at 2740, but I got liquidated too many times. Plus, I'm stuck with SK Hynix. I had a short on SanDisk at 1800, but I sold it off at 1744 and missed the opportunity. So I lost interest and gave up. Damn SK Hynix.Yesterday it was still surging upwards, but after waking up, the market took a big pullback. BTC fell back to around $84K, and ETH returned to the $2,660 level. It feels like almost all the gains from the past few days have been wiped out. What really scared me wasn’t just how much the price dropped, but that my position almost hit the liquidation line. My hands were shaking at that moment... Fortunately, the position size wasn’t large this time, otherwise such volatility would be really hard to bear. The background for this drop is also quite clear. The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the market’s previous expectation of about 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Moreover, the employment data for July and August was revised down by a total of 60,000 jobs. After the data was released, the market readjusted its expectations for the Fed’s future interest rate path. BTC quickly fell from above $86K, and ETH also came under pressure simultaneously. Looking back now, I’m becoming more and more certain of one thing: I might really not be suited for long-term holding. It’s not the market’s problem, but my trading personality. When I first opened the position, I was actually very clear-headed. If the direction was wrong, I cut losses; if I saw an opportunity, I went long or short; if it wasn’t right, I withdrew immediately without hesitation. But once I held the position for a few days, my mindset started to change. I began thinking: “Wait a bit longer, maybe it will still rise.” “This level should just be a normal pullback.” “It might break through in a few days.” Then slowly, trading turned into finding reasons to justify my position. I was reluctant to take profits when prices rose, and unwilling to cut losses when prices fell, even starting toNIGHT current price is around 0.05129, with moving averages still maintaining a bullish alignment; the market has not given any effective weakening signals. The liquidation chart shows an abnormal accumulation of long positions around 0.050; a pullback is not a bad thing, as cleaning out floating positions makes it easier to move up lightly. The area above 0.0527 is an overlap zone of profit-taking and short liquidations, which must be absorbed with volume, otherwise a false breakout is likely to form.
Just put the meal into the community locker, and the order reminder call came in again; a quick glance shows the order is still unfilled.
Entry range is 0.0498 to 0.0505, with a defensive stop loss at 0.0486. The first take profit target is 0.0527; after a breakout, the second take profit target is pushed to 0.0542. If 0.049 is lost and not quickly recovered, the bullish structure is broken, so abandon immediately without waiting for a rebound.
$NIGHT
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
@OKX星球 The question "Are you ready?" is not about judgment, but about position size. If fully invested, a drop will hurt. If out of the market, a rise will be missed.
#BTC The current structure has no clear direction. After being rejected at 87K, both bulls and bears are waiting for the next signal. Instead of guessing a crash, it's better to think clearly about how much position to hold at this point.Blast's announcement today set an example for more public chains without actual use cases and scenario support, which is: it's better to shut down than to stubbornly hold on.
Looking back, the Blast team first created Blur, making some micro-innovations around points mining and liquidity, posing an effective threat to OpenSea;
Then Tieshun tried to replicate this path by building a public chain with an application mindset, heavily promoting a points system that allowed ETH and stablecoins to serve dual purposes—earning yield and collecting points. They quickly amassed 2 billion TVL, enjoying a moment of glory and being hailed by the industry as genius devs.
Later, the points kept inflating, annoying whales; mini-game dApps flooded the market but lacked sustained demand. Ultimately, Blast failed to overcome the hurdle of "Day 1 only starts after TGE."
With L2s and L1s everywhere, users and developers need a compelling "why you" reason; the rise of ecosystems and applications is not a given.$SAND SAND has experienced a strong surge, with a 24-hour increase of over 10%, showing strong short-term explosive power.
Looking at the whale sample data: 126 long positions with an average entry price of 0.06135, a profit ratio as high as 99.20%, and obvious unrealized gains; 137 short positions with an average entry price of 0.06437, the vast majority are at a loss, and the negative funding rate also indirectly reflects the heavy pressure on the shorts.
After the rapid short-term rally, many profit-taking positions have accumulated, so be cautious of the risk of a pullback caused by phased capital realization.
Offensive level: 0.0712, Defensive level: 0.0630. Tonight, watch $BTC, no need to monitor a bunch of indicators, just two numbers are enough.
First, $87,000. If it breaks through and holds here, it means the bulls have regained short-term control. Next, watch $88,500—$90,000.
Second, $84,000. If it can't hold here, the short-term structure will continue to be under pressure. Below, watch $83,000—$82,500.
Currently, $BTC is tugging back and forth around $84,500, and the real direction still needs confirmation.
So don't rush, the key position has been reached, and the market will naturally provide the answer.$BTC is most likely to get people hyped when it experiences this kind of surge and pullback.
Intraday, it once touched above $87,000, then retreated to around $84,500. Right now, you can't simply treat a single surge as a breakout; the price needs further confirmation.
On the upside, focus on $87,000; after breaking and holding above it, look towards $88,500—$90,000.
On the downside, watch $84,000; if it breaks below, the short term might continue testing $83,000—$82,500.
Before the market gives an answer, don't make decisions on its behalf.BTC market analysis: The high point at 87239 has formed a very clear short-term resistance zone.
After a rapid drop, support was found around 83800‑84000, and now it has rebounded to near 84500.
The pattern shows a failed rally → deep pullback → weak recovery, not an immediate reversal to strength, indicating a breather after a major drop.
Support level at 83800‑84000 — this was last night's low; if it holds, there is still a chance for short-term consolidation and grinding; if it breaks down effectively, the downside space will reopen.
The non-farm payroll data itself showed stronger-than-expected employment, and the market immediately reacted with a "hawkish" expectation. After the initial rally to the high of 87239 last night, it was directly pushed down, a typical case of good news being priced in plus selling pressure from the strong data.
103 coins rose, 296 fell, clearly showing a stronger losing effect, with most coins following the downtrend and weak rebounds.#BTC was rejected at 87K, so the short-term direction is indeed downward. But drawing the path down to 52K assumes there won't be any decent rebounds in the market in between.
Every round of decline has its rhythm. 70K is the first key level, near the short-term holders' cost basis. If it breaks, 58K is next. If it doesn't break, the direction might change.
Let's wait until the price gets there; no premature anchoring of the endpoint.The most critical thing for $BTC right now is not how much it has risen, but whether it can hold steady!
After surging above $87,000, the price has returned to around $84,500, indicating there is still significant contention above.
In the short term, focus on $87,000 first. If it breaks through and holds, the next targets are $88,500 and then watch $90,000.
Conversely, if $84,000 is lost, watch for a pullback to $83,000–$82,500.
Before the range breaks, less emotion and more patience will actually make it easier to grasp the rhythm.A loss of 12.3% in a year might not feel like much to outsiders.
But when converted to $2.44 million, it stings a bit.
A big holder withdrew 6,500 $ETH from the exchange a year ago at an average price of $3,040. At one point, the unrealized loss peaked at $9.55 million. They held on until today and have now moved everything into Coinbase.
To put it bluntly, they couldn’t hold on anymore.
The interesting part isn’t how much they lost, but the timing they chose.
They didn’t exit on the day of the crash; they endured for a year, saw a slight rebound, and then left.
This kind of exit hurts morale more than panic selling.
Because it shows even veteran players don’t believe in a short-term recovery.
Impact on the market? 6,500 $ETH isn’t a large amount, so it won’t create a deep pit.
But the signal isn’t good—someone is starting to give up rather than wait.
I’m cautious now, not rushing to buy.
If I were to act, I’d wait until this batch of cut-loss sellers is done.
Honestly, if I were in their shoes, I probably wouldn’t have held on until today either.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $ETH $BTC $ZEC Why did the non-farm payroll good news lead to a big drop in the crypto market?
Many friends are confused today. The non-farm employment data was unexpectedly weak, which theoretically should be positive for the crypto market, yet Bitcoin instead experienced a decline.
Remember this phrase: buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Before the official release of the non-farm data, funds had already started to speculate in advance on the expectation of weaker employment and a lower probability of interest rate hikes. The market had already priced in this good news.
When the data was officially announced and the shoe dropped, with no additional incremental funds pushing prices higher, the bulls who entered earlier chose to take profits and exit. The concentrated profit-taking caused the good news to turn into bad news immediately.
Also, note that a non-farm report should not be judged solely by the number of new jobs added.
If wage growth remains high, it means inflation risks have not been eliminated. Even if employment weakens, it does not mean the Federal Reserve will quickly shift to easing. The probability of a rate hike in October has decreased, but that does not mean rate cuts and liquidity easing will start immediately.
Interest rates remain high; we have only lost one negative factor, not directly entered a phase of significant liquidity easing.
Additionally, the non-farm night contract saw intense speculation. After many bulls rushed in short-term, they were easily trapped in a bull trap and stop-loss liquidation, which further amplified the decline.
Improved expectations ≠ market reversal. News is only a catalyst; do not rely solely on one piece of data to make directional judgments.
👉 Did you fall into any traps with your non-farm trades tonight?
I was the one who didn’t run. Let’s chat in the comments; I still need to learn from everyone!$BTC $AAVE Regarding where Bitcoin can go, I really don't know, just hold on. Originally, I was playing both long and short, but yesterday I closed the long position early and held the short. I'm sure 84500 is not a point to catch people on board; at least look around 82800 to gauge market sentiment. I feel this wave might not reach 76000; it will probably hit just above 80000 first because I think Bitcoin at 87000 isn't enough to make retail investors go crazy. The big players can't unload all their holdings; they have to wait for the next wave to push higher. Maybe then everyone will believe the bull market has arrived, going above 90000 and then dropping below 75000—that's the harshest scenario. Now, crashing below 75000 doesn't seem to scare the bulls away. This is just my personal feeling. Yesterday I took a short position, but I don't expect a direct sharp drop from here!!!Here's a harsh truth: most people lose money not because they chose the wrong direction, but because their position size was wrong.
If the direction is right but the position is too heavy, a normal pullback can break your mindset and make you fall before dawn;
If the direction is right but the position is too light, the profit you make won't even cover the fees.
My simple approach has two rules:
First, ask yourself if you can sleep peacefully if this money is completely lost—if not, cut the position in half first;
Second, enter in three batches, the first batch is always a test position, losing a small amount if wrong, and only adding more confidently if right.
The market never rewards the one who predicts the most accurately, but the one who survives the longest. Position size is your lifespan.$PONS has been doing T trading to reduce positions. Many losses were taken away by reducing positions, but in reality, the losses were even greater$ETH In the next three months, my judgment can be summed up in eight characters: range-bound grind, late-stage breakout. Currently at $2,668, don't expect it to surge in one go, but also don't dump your chips at this level.
First, let's talk about hard forks. On October 6, Glamsterdam will launch on the Sepolia testnet, marking the biggest upgrade since the Merge. The core is ePBS joining the consensus layer + the single-block Gas limit increasing from 60 million to 200 million, tripling capacity directly. The mainnet rollout is scheduled for Q4. This kind of upgrade is not a short-term pump for ETH but a solid answer to the long-term doubts about "whether L1 can still scale and if DeFi has room to grow."
The capital flow is also shifting. The spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $690 million during the week of September 21–25. Citi just raised its 12-month target from $2,240 to $3,028, and the median of institutional 90-day models is also around $3,100. In a bull market scenario, $4,300 is possible. But be clear: there was a net outflow from ETFs in early October, and ETH remains relatively weak compared to BTC. Money is warming up slowly, not rushing in wildly.
In terms of rhythm, October will likely continue to grind between $2,500 and $2,800. $2,800 is a strong resistance level that has held for three years; the real opportunity comes after the mainnet upgrade rollout and capital confirms its return—breaking and holding above $2,800 with volume, $3,000 will naturally follow, and then look further up to $3,500. On the downside, $2,400 is critical; if broken, the logic needs to be reconsidered.
For operations, just one sentence: buy the dip in batches, don't chase highs, and save your bullets for the late Q4.$BTC 110.3 Bitcoin Trend Analysis
The first major rise in Bitcoin is the 5th wave, expected to form a terminating wedge pattern, causing a back-and-forth battle between bulls and bears.
Currently, it is still in the 5-2 wave correction structure, with the 5-2 wave composed of a wxy structure.
The y wave decline has not ended yet; it must drop at least in 3 waves, with Bitcoin expected to fall below 82.
Pay attention to not breaking below 80100; if broken, the structure will change.
Risk Warning: This is only a market structure analysis and does not constitute any trading advice #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
US Treasury yields continue to hit new stage highs, with market expectations for long-term rates showing a clear shift. The high interest rate environment raises the global cost of holding capital, causing funds to continuously flow back from risk assets to risk-free assets like US Treasuries.
Equities and commodities are all restrained, and the valuation logic of risk assets remains under pressure. The market rebound generally lacks incremental capital support, mostly reflecting short-term capital sentiment recovery, with a large amount of trapped sell orders piled up above.
As long as the pressure on long-term US Treasury yields is not substantially relieved, it will be difficult for various risk assets to sustain an upward trend. It is currently not suitable to chase highs for long positions; every rebound to key resistance levels is an opportunity to bet on shorts. Strictly control positions, set stop losses, and guard against sudden news-driven volatility.On Friday, the US stock market acted counterintuitively.
The Nasdaq rose 1.66% to a record high, the S&P +1.02%, and the Dow +0.60%. Nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, and the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 64% to 24%, with the stock market buying into the expectation of a rate cut according to the script.
But the bond market did not follow suit: the 10-year US Treasury yield actually rose 5 basis points that day, returning to 5.28%.
Everyone says employment is cooling and the long end will ease, but the data says otherwise.
The real chain is: the stock market is trading on 'no rate hike,' while the bond market is trading on 'things that won’t come down whether rates hike or not' — oil prices, deficits, and sticky inflation.
Fed’s Cook just admitted on Thursday that supply shocks are more persistent than expected, implying that the long end’s pricing power is not in the rate-setting meeting room.
So don’t just focus on October 28th’s pause as a bullish trigger: with the long end holding at 5.28% and not coming down, the valuation ceiling hasn’t been lifted.The market was just "twisted" by macro data.
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000-90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The market immediately cooled, lowering the October rate hike expectation to about 14%, US Treasury yields fell back, and risk assets surged then retreated. BTC once surged near 87,200, then long positions were heavily liquidated, falling back to oscillate between 84,500-84,600; ETH surged to 2,750-2,780 then fell back to around 2,670. Citi raised the 12-month target for BTC to 113,000 and ETH to about 3,000, ETFs still had net inflows, but short-term sentiment clearly cooled.
BTC: Resistance at 86,500-87,350, support at 84,000-84,200, break below looks at 83,200-82,500. If it pulls back to 84,200-84,500 and stabilizes, light long positions can be tried with stop loss below 83,800, target 86,200-86,800; if volume breaks through 87,350, then look at 89,000. If 86,500-87,000 is resisted, light short positions can be tried with stop loss above 87,500, target 84,500-84,000.
ETH: Resistance at 2,750-2,780, support at 2,650-2,660. If it stabilizes at 2,660-2,680, light long positions can be tried with stop loss below 2,620, target 2,750-2,800; if resisted at 2,750-2,780, consider short with stop loss above 2,800, target 2,650.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so volatility is likely to amplify. Macro is slightly bullish, but don’t rush to go all in before key levels are broken~~~$BTC is currently lacking not volatility, but a clear breakout.
The price is oscillating around $84,500, having previously surged above $87,000 but then being pushed back down.
So don’t overcomplicate short-term thinking:
Break above $87,000, watch $88,500—$90,000;
Break below $84,000, watch $83,000—$82,500.
The space in between is where bulls and bears tug back and forth. The real opportunities usually become clearer only after a breakout is confirmed.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力
After seven consecutive days of net inflows totaling about $2.6 billion, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced three consecutive days of net outflows since October 2, totaling $215 million. The Ethereum spot ETF has weakened in sync, with four consecutive days of net outflows, including a single-day outflow of $48.9 million on October 3. Previously, funds rotated repeatedly between BTC and ETH, but now both are facing simultaneous redemptions as institutions are comprehensively reducing risk exposure.
Glassnode data also confirms this trend. Long-term BTC holders are loosening their positions, and short-term speculative activity has clearly declined. The weakening buying power is not an isolated phenomenon but reflects an overall contraction in market risk appetite.
This poses a substantial constraint on short-term rebounds. ETH is currently up 1.82%, but ETF funds continue to withdraw, showing a clear divergence between price and capital flow. The dense lock-up zone is between 2650 and 2720; if outflows do not stop, a successful breakout will be difficult. The short-term support is at 2480, and a break below could lead to a test of 2380.
ADP data will be released tonight, and before the data is out, large funds tend to remain cautious. If ADP misses expectations and rate cut expectations rise, ETF funds may flow back in, and ETH still has rebound momentum $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力
South Korea officially announced rules for transferring stocks, bonds, and funds onto the blockchain.
Its financial regulatory agency has proposed detailed rules, with tokenized securities set to launch on February 4, 2027.
Retail investors can purchase up to 100 million ₩ (approximately $70,000) per year on each approved trading platform.
The first phase covers funds, bonds, and unlisted stocks, with later plans including listed stocks and stablecoin settlements.
South Korean brokerage Hanwha has already established a tokenized securities platform supporting Avalanche.
$BTC Rally followed by a pullback. These four words describe what happened after 87200.
The fourth truth: ETF money flows in and out in "pulses," not "continuous buying."
Looking at ETF data, this is the easiest part to misinterpret.
From September 21 to 25, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net inflow of $2.39 billion. On October 1, the total ETF net inflow was $102.7 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $196 million and Grayscale Mini Trust contributing $14.59 million.
But just the day before, ETFs had a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending the previous streak of 9 consecutive days and a cumulative inflow of $3.1 billion.
First, an outflow of $149 million, then an inflow of $103 million. This is "pulsed," not "continuous."
JPMorgan estimates that so far this week, only $123 million has flowed into crypto ETPs, compared to over $3.2 billion last week. The inflow pace is sharply slowing. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 September payrolls came in below expectations, while July and August data were revised lower.$BTC spiked toward $87.3K before pulling back to around $83.9K, with $ETH weakening alongside it. Softer labor data may reduce near-term rate-hike pressure, keeping the broader bullish structure intact. Still, chasing pumps is risky. $BTC: $82K–83K support | $86K–87K resistance → $88K–90K if broken. $ETH: $2.60K–2.65K support | $2.75K–2.90K upside. Watch the reaction, not the emotion. #USNFPDataCools The most misleading term in the crypto world is 'impermanent loss'.
In short: it's not losing money, it's 'earning less'.
You deposit $ETH and $USDT into a liquidity pool, and ETH rises by 50%.
But if you just hold without moving, you earn more than by being an LP — the difference is the impermanent loss.
Why? The AMM's constant product formula automatically sells some ETH in the pool for USDT when the price rises.
It's like taking profits early, missing out on the latter part of the price increase.
Remember three points:
1. The greater the price deviation, the greater the loss.
2. If the price returns to the original point, the loss disappears automatically — hence 'impermanent'.
3. Only when the fees earned exceed the impermanent loss does being an LP truly make a profit.
In one sentence: Impermanent loss = the difference in returns between holding and being an LP.Post-Nonfarm "One-Day Trip": BTC Peaks at 87.2K Then Pulls Back, Short-Term Momentum Fizzles
Conclusion first: Yesterday's nonfarm surprise + ETF funds pushed BTC up to 87.2K, but it fell back the same day, currently at 84.6K. All who chased the high got trapped, short-term momentum has fizzled out. The strategy is simple: don't chase, defend both ends — short zone at 86.5–87.2K above, long zone at 82–83K below, no trades between 84–86.5K.
What happened (OKX data, retrieved 10-03 08:00):
- September nonfarm added 29K (expected 90K), unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, August revised down to 133K; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated "more time needed to observe," cooling rate hike expectations
- US spot BTC ETF net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $3.1 billion, about $2.39 billion this week alone
- On October 2, BTC peaked at 87,239, with over $120 million liquidations in 24 hours
- But the rally didn't hold: US 10Y Treasury yield surged to 5.3% (highest since 2002), dollar index broke 102 (18-month high)
- Current price 84,608; 1H MA20 flattened then turned down near 85.4K, price tangled between MA20 and MA50, direction unclear
Positions:
- Above 86.5–87.2K: last defense line for shorts (Thursday's long upper shadow + 89K psychological level, space opens only above 87.5K)
- Below 82–83K: last defense line for longs (this week's box top + liquidation trigger, break means looking at 80K)
- Between 84–86.5K: frustrating middle ground, no trades
Trading plan:
- Short: Enter near 86.5K on signs of exhaustion (1H stagnation / false breakout); stop loss above 88K; targets 84K → 82K
- Long: Enter if 82–83K support holds (4H recovery, no further drop); stop loss below 81.5K; targets 86.5K → 87.2K
- No trades: Between 84–86.5K, weekend liquidity thin, chasing orders is just giving away money
- Risk control: Light positions over weekend, guard against spikes; US Treasury + dollar pressure persists; next week Singapore Token2049 industry conference, sentiment slightly bullish, exit shorts at target, no greedSEC opens the door for leveraged ETFs, with fundamentals and capital fiercely competing. After a rally, the market has fallen into a correction, and capital differentiation after the positive news is intensifying.
$BTC: The SEC approved 3x leveraged Bitcoin ETFs, fully integrating crypto assets into traditional speculative tools. This is a major step toward long-term compliance, but after the market surged and then fell back, capital chose to "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Short-term profit-taking is occurring, and BTC has entered a consolidation and digestion phase.
$ETH: The ecosystem is stirred by wallet-related noise, with Joseph Lubin urgently stepping in to calm things down. ETH currently lacks an independent breakthrough narrative and can only passively follow the broader market rhythm. Although the underlying infrastructure is advancing, new catalysts are needed to attract incremental capital.
$SOL: On-chain tokenized stock holders have surpassed 1.2 million, a historic high, with RWA fundamentals extremely solid. However, after a price surge, there was a sharp pullback, and capital is flowing out in the short term. The divergence between improving fundamentals and falling prices indicates that the short-term market values macro sentiment and profit-taking more.
After the positive news, the market has entered a shakeout period. BTC is supported by compliance expectations, ETH and others are breaking narratives, and SOL has strong fundamentals but capital is retreating. At this time, avoid blindly chasing highs; wait for capital to settle and the shakeout to end before seeking structural opportunities. After yesterday's non-farm payrolls, three coins showed three different market trends.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC — the biggest news yesterday was the US non-farm payrolls. After the data was released, market expectations for the Fed to continue raising rates in October cooled down, US Treasury yields fell, and risk assets should have directly benefited. However, the market was disappointing, rising first then starting to plunge wildly.
BTC: After the non-farm data came out yesterday, BTC once surged from around 84,000 directly to $87,238. The problem was here: it surged up but couldn't hold. It finally returned to around 85,000, and today it even dropped back to the 84,000 range. I think the most important thing for BTC now is whether it can reclaim and hold above 85,000.
ETH: Yesterday it once reached around $2,750. Compared to BTC, it was clearly still in a rising state. My key level remains 2,700; as long as 2,700 is not lost again, there is still a chance for further catch-up gains.
ZEC: While BTC and ETH were benefiting from the non-farm news, ZEC continued to pull back. On October 2, it once dropped from above $1,400 to around $1,280, a daily decline of about 4%. Moreover, it has clearly retraced over the past week.
BTC is responsible for deciding the direction, ETH confirms whether funds have spread, and ZEC tells me whether the group that made crazy profits earlier has finished exiting. Morning roundup
Early this morning, I dug into the smart money data and compared it with my own positions. Honestly, it’s quite thought-provoking.
On the $BTC side, whale traders are overwhelmingly bullish, with 2,643 longs versus 1,016 shorts, a long-to-short ratio close to 5 times. The average long position opened at 82,437, and most are still profitable now;
$HYPE is also stronger on the long side, with 805 longs and 477 shorts. Smart money longs have already taken a significant profit.
Looking at myself:
✅ $HYPE long: followed the trend, 20x leverage floating profit +2290, a return rate of 342%. When riding the trend, the market really rewards you;
❌ $BICO long: stubbornly holding against the trend, 8x leverage floating loss -1311, a return rate of -473%. Clearly on the wrong side, yet still clinging to hope and refusing to admit defeat.
Another very real lesson:
Smart money isn’t right every time, but most of the time, they know how to follow the big trend; and when we lose money, it’s often not because we don’t understand the market, but because we’re unwilling to admit we’re on the opposing side.
Profits are the reward for following the trend; losses are the price of luck.
Today, keep a steady mindset, don’t impulsively add positions, don’t blindly chase highs, and first protect the profits already in hand.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$BTC
Nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
The nonfarm data fell far short of expectations, employment weakened, and the market's bets on a Fed rate cut intensified.
In the short term, BTC quickly surged, driven by sentiment from the news.
However, be aware that such positive news is easily used by funds to cash in profits, causing long positions to exit and the market to likely spike and then fall back.
Current trading strategy: do not chase the highs, wait for rebound resistance signals, and short on rallies.
Poor employment data ≠ the market will keep rising; positive news landing is a risk, so manage position sizes and stop losses well.