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Wall Street funds can finally access BTC more conveniently. Brothers, on October 1st, the SEC dropped another bomb: a proposed new rule creating a crypto custody framework for registered investment advisors and regulated funds. The core point is that under certain conditions, investment advisors can self-custody clients' crypto assets. Damn, this basically clears a major obstacle for institutional entry. The old rules required investment advisors' clients' crypto assets to be held by compliant third-party custodians. This proposal lifts that restriction: registered investment advisors meeting strict security conditions can self-custody clients' crypto assets without mandatory third-party qualified custodians. Previously, many institutions wanted to buy assets like BTC and ETH, not because they didn't want to, but because after buying, where to store the coins? Who manages them? How to ensure compliance? Regulatory rules have been vague, so many institutions hesitated to enter. Now, the SEC's proposal allows, under certain conditions, investment advisors and funds to adopt new crypto custody methods, including using qualified state trust companies for custody, and in some cases permitting institutions to self-custody crypto assets. This is an important step paving the way for institutional entry, lowering the threshold for traditional institutions to enter crypto. Previously, many traditional asset managers were stuck at the custody stage. After the new rules are implemented, more RIAs will be able to allocate crypto assets to high-net-worth clients. Good news. The direction is now clear: crypto assets are moving from alternative investments into the traditional financial system $BTC 7u challenge to 100 million!
Day 42
Principal 7u, target 100 million
Currently: 3900u
Survival cost: 2600u
Available funds: 1300u+
During the National Day holiday, various market makers, funds, and whales are all on break. This might be our strength during the long holiday; the market basically hasn't changed much, and all news and sentiment will only be released after the holiday.
1. It's surprising that Bitcoin $BTC could break through the triangle today; just hold the long positions, no need to look at anything else.
2. The more I watch $PUMP, the more I like it; daily income and buybacks are too strong.
3. $ENA has been interesting lately; besides the four major updates announced at the beginning of last month, there have been continuous moves this month, showing the project team is active.
The meme I was ambushing hit the ambush, heavy loss, mistakenly invested over ten thousand USD. The core issue is that I've been too lazy recently and haven't scanned the chain, which is not good.The stopped myocardium doesn't cry out in pain; it silently suffers from ischemia—this is the current ECG of $MORPHO.
A 4.54% drop in 24 hours—I disagree with labeling this as a myocardial infarction. A true infarction involves plaque rupture and permanent blood flow interruption; this time, the monitor shows reversible, transient hypoperfusion: the short-term RSI is stuck at 34.9, still on the borderline of functional ischemia without further decline, the long-term RSI is 48.9, and the sinus rhythm remains regular—the conduction system is intact, only the blood pressure has dropped.
But I want to focus on the two "myocardial walls" of the Bollinger Bands. The short-term price is at 12%, with only a 0.9% buffer from the lower band; the mid-term is even more dangerous, at 4%, just 0.3% from the lower band. This is not a healthy diastolic pullback; the ventricular wall is so thin it’s down to the last layer of muscle fibers, and any emotional sell-off could cause a perforation. The so-called drop is just a symptom; the real lesion is insufficient perfusion pressure, and the market is over-treating an ischemic area that could have been conservatively repaired.
The surgical principle is never complicated: do not open the chest before the blood pressure hits its lowest point. I will wait for bedside ultrasound to confirm the blood flow bottoming out before performing a bypass.
📈 Long:
Entry: $1.86 (current price -2.3%)
Take Profit 1: $2.06 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: $2.03 (+6.2%)
Stop Loss: $1.69 (-11.6%)
The entry is set 2.3% below the current price, which is the exact point where I expect perfusion pressure to be at its lowest and the vessels ready to clamp; the first target at $2.06 means an 8.0% reperfusion recovery, the most reasonable recovery curve after blood flow is restored; the second target at $2.03 leaves a 6.2% margin because early post-op always has a reflex bradycardia. And $1.69, -11.6%, is my irreversible intraoperative bottom line—once perforation occurs, the condition changes from ischemia to perforation, the suturing window closes, and the chest must be closed immediately without any gamble-like compression.
Short-term RSI at 34.9 is not a buy signal; the mid-term Bollinger Band at 4% is the real lesion coordinate. Low position does not equal safety; being 0.3% near the lower band only indicates the tissue has begun necrotic marginalization. Intervention must be with extremely light exploratory doses, controlling position size like extracorporeal circulation flow, not as a cardiac stimulant.
Don’t emotionally massage an ischemic heart. $1.86 is my incision line; if perfusion pressure doesn’t reach this, I won’t open the chest. #USJobsDataToday Today’s jobs report feels less like an employment story and more like a test of how much patience the Fed actually has 👀
Consensus expects just 84K new jobs in September, nearly half August’s 162K, while unemployment is seen holding at 4.1%.
What caught my attention is the tension underneath the data. Inflation is still uncomfortable, with August PCE at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, yet hiring appears to be slowing. At the same time, jobless claims fell to 197K, so the labor market isn’t exactly collapsing.
Jefferson added another wrinkle: higher market rates may already be doing some of the Fed’s tightening, giving policymakers more time before adjusting rates again.
That makes today’s payroll number more than a beat-or-miss event.
A weak print could strengthen the case for patience. A strong one could revive hike expectations.
For BTC, gold and risk assets, the real question is whether the economy is cooling enough to tame inflation without forcing the Fed back into action.Why has this wave of $LITE optical modules surged to over 1000?
1. Fundamental Confirmation
The "White-Haired Stock God" demand exceeds supply logic. Bernstein (target 1220) and Rothschild (1294.85) are intensively bullish, with the core being Nvidia's CPO volume expansion. Grand narratives like high-altitude wind energy/space nuclear energy push the wind bias higher, leading to a valuation re-rating for optical modules.
2. Technical Warning
Chart 2 shows LITE surging from $882 to $1076. The 4H line shows a bullish arrangement, but RSI (73/70/65) is severely overbought and approaching the upper Bollinger Band (1075), indicating short-term profit-taking pressure (support seen at 990-1000).
3. Personal View and Strategy
The "SanDisk-style" surge in optical modules relies on exponential expansion of computing power; Lumentum's CPO logic is stronger and faster to realize than energy narratives. Long-term outlook is optimistic, but avoid chasing highs in the short term. It is recommended to wait for overbought indicators to digest and to enter after a pullback to the Bollinger middle band (around 995) or stabilization above MA10.$AAVE continues to rally strongly. I took some profit at $160 when I felt like it was starting to turn around. However, after dropping to $158, it bounced back up again.
Greed kicked in, and with the indicators and overall information still favoring further upside, I decided to enter another position. I usually try to avoid chasing trades like this, so I’m keeping the position size very small.ETF Brief｜US East 10-01 (Previous Trading Day)
Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice
BTC Spot ETF
• Single day: +$102.7 million net inflow, ending the large outflow from the previous day, quickly recovering after 9 consecutive inflow interruptions
• Top split: BlackRock IBIT alone +$195.6 million; Fidelity FBTC -$60.7 million, Grayscale GBTC -$31.4 million, multiple small and medium products redeemed simultaneously, funds highly concentrated in IBIT
• 7-day cumulative: +$259 million, weekly fund tone still bullish
ETH Spot ETF
• Single day: -$48.5 million net outflow, continuous outflow trading days, no top products absorbing selling pressure
• 7-day cumulative: +$110 million, weekly still positive, but daily redemptions continue to consume weekly increments
Market Interpretation
1. BTC: BlackRock's large buy order hedges other institutions' redemptions, representing internal institutional rotation rather than a broad market surge of new OTC funds. Price is strong, funds are recovering, but many old products are reducing positions.
2. ETH: Continues to underperform BTC, funds keep withdrawing, institutional allocation focus clearly leans toward BTC.
3. Risk points: Single-day data fluctuates greatly, requires 2-3 consecutive days of confirmation in the same direction; single-day data should not be used for trend judgment. US Treasury yields and Middle East geopolitical issues may disrupt subscription and redemption behavior at any time.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 So when it comes to doing this thing, technology is really secondary; your mindset is what determines whether you can make money. My friend who shorted Ethereum at 2768 came to ask me again but didn't dare to hold. A drop to 2753 and a rebound to 2763 scared him to death. I already told him to watch 2750 first, and if 2750 breaks, then watch 2740, haha 😄A 2.21% settlement in 24 hours — this is not a pullback, it’s a crack torn open in the foundational slab during stress testing.
The current price of $LRC looks like a steel column about to hit bottom, just 0.3% above the lower Bollinger Band — this is like standing on the second basement floor of a building looking down, with the support beams already pressed to their limit scale. The short-term RSI reads 33.4, and the structural stress indicator is approaching the load-bearing wall edge of the oversold zone. Meanwhile, the mid-term RSI at 46.7 indicates the overall framework hasn’t collapsed, only local floor slabs are showing deflection deformation.
From the Bollinger Bands perspective: the short-term price percentile is at 18%, and the mid-term is only 11%. What does this mean? It means the building you designed currently has a market price anchored less than 10% above the historical foundation depth. There’s only a 0.9% buffer layer from the mid-term lower band — in my blueprint, this is called "zero redundancy reinforcement." Any further panic selling could cause the entire raft foundation to break through. But note, the 1H RSI has already given a buy signal, indicating the concrete curing period has arrived and initial set strength is forming.
Now looking at target levels. The mid-term upper Bollinger Band is at +6.6%, which I often call the "preset reversal point" — beam-column joints naturally tend toward this damping limit when the load rebounds. The first take-profit at +6.0% is set at 98% stress release, and the second take-profit at +6.6% is right at the farthest cantilever edge of the structure. As for entry, the real pour position is 4.7% below the current price — not buying at the current price, but waiting for the mixer truck to arrive at the foundation pit before placing the order.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.01 (current price -4.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.01 (+6.0%)
Take Profit 2: 0.01 (+6.6%)
Stop Loss: 0.01 (-16.0%)
A 16% stop loss is equivalent to equipping this building with seismic isolation bearings — if it can’t withstand this displacement, it means the Rollup foundation in its whitepaper is fake. I’ve reviewed too many real Layer 2 blueprints; those that survive don’t rely on marketing facades but on the zero-knowledge proof main load-bearing beam.
This $LRC building is currently in the final settlement observation period before structural topping out. The short-term readings tell me the foundation is still there, but the construction team is panicking. When to enter? Wait for it to return to the pour position, wait for that prefabricated column to settle at the design elevation zero.
If the main beam isn’t in place, I won’t sign off.$PONS dropped 11% to 16% in seven days, but it’s still up 31% over thirty days. This trend is more thrilling than a roller coaster. OKX just listed PONS/USDT spot on September 15, while a neighboring exchange added it at the beginning of the month, right at the peak. Many who chased in know the risk in their hearts.
Its story is linked with ARB’s crew. PONS is the token launchpad on Robinhood Chain. CoinDesk reported that users burned nearly $6 million in fees daily just from token issuance and trading, surpassing Pump and Hyperliquid, even exceeding Robinhood Chain itself. Market maker Wintermute quietly hoarded over $3 million worth of PONS; big players are positioning.
But it’s highly tied to Robinhood Chain’s meme hype, and once the hype fades, it’s free fall. Development activity score is 0; no matter how good the tokenomics look, it’s a castle in the air. Top ten exchanges have thin liquidity, and large orders can cause terrifying slippage. It rose more than fortyfold from the bottom at 0.021 to 0.97, now giving back gains—only steady hands should catch the falling knife.
Watch Robinhood Chain’s real daily active users and fee revenue, and whether Wintermute is quietly selling.
PONS is a supporting character in ARB’s story; the main character gets the meat, it only gets the broth. When the main character cools off, it dies first. Play with small positions and don’t get carried away. Short at previous high resistance, generally only on the first surge and pullback.
The current bullish trend mainly focuses on buying on dips $BTC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Big Brother Maji added to his position again!
1.61 hundred million position, the real core is fully concentrated on BTC and ETH
Many people are watching small coins for fun, but he hasn't deviated
Heavy positions anchored on the main line, gradient leverage to play macro, small positions to test emotional coins.
$BTC 40X full position long, 546 coins, opened at 84548.90, liquidation lowered to 75542
Leverage is high, but the buffer is deep enough, specifically used to withstand sharp spikes around non-farm payrolls
$ETH 25X full position long, 34,000 coins, the largest volume in the entire portfolio
Main contributor to floating profit as ballast position, strong liquidation line pressed to 2550, allowing enough time for volatility digestion.
$HYPE only accounts for a small part, more like an extra emotional position
Does not affect the big picture where BTC-ETH decides the account's fate
Those familiar with him know: in big market windows, the main force chips are never placed on marginal targets
This layout hands the winning move to the two major mainstreams—BTC for elasticity, ETH to support the base, small positions to ride sector heat
But be clear: 40X, 25X full positions are still extremely high risk
Liquidation prices look far, but under extreme liquidity during non-farm payrolls anything can happen
He has backup positions to add, you don't, don't blindly rush to match #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Opportunities always exist, but the great opportunities of any era belong to "those who have cognition beyond their contemporaries"—this is what fairness truly means, not that you now enjoy the educational boost, information boost, and cognitive boost brought by the internet and want to easily defeat those who knew little before the internet appeared, like why your parents didn’t buy Nvidia 🤷.
So what should you do? Your work must surpass all your colleagues and peers;
your cognition must exceed the vast majority of people speaking online,
this is a horizontal comparison, not a vertical one—you stand out among your contemporaries,
and opportunities will naturally arise,
otherwise, no matter which era you are in, opportunities are not yours.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 The rotation is getting interesting.
$BTC → leading
$ETH → catching up
$SOL → higher beta
$XRP → participating
When BTC stabilizes, capital often starts searching for stronger relative performers.
Watch the flow.$ROBO
Breaks $86,000 with ETF flows turning positive and short positions declining. But the real test is what happens next.
Wait for the breakout → liquidity may shift to strong altcoins, RWA, and AI.
Lose it → the decision may be primarily driven by leverage.
Meanwhile, $PI needs real use, while AI $ROBO/physical needs builders, users, and revenue.
Will it follow BTC liquidity or the physical AI narrative?
Not financial advice.
#AICapExPushContinues At 5:30, let's first check the US stock tokens — $xMSTR (MicroStrategy) spot is around 165, up about six points from the 24-hour open at 154.4, with a daily high of 167 and a low of 153, trading volume close to 7 million USD.
BTC is hovering around 86,200, and $ETH is about 2752. Correspondingly, MSTR perpetual contract nominal positions are roughly 27 million USD, with fees almost zero. In the short term, watch if it can hold around 162; don't impulsively chase the highs.
$BTC $ETH $xMSTR #XMSTR #MSTR #MicroStrategy #USStocks #TokenizedUSStocks #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, please trade cautiously. The hardest part of quantum migration is not the new signature, but what to do with old accounts
Designing a quantum-resistant signature algorithm is only the first step. There are a large number of long-dormant regular accounts, contract control rights, validator withdrawal credentials, and lost key assets on Ethereum that cannot all be actively migrated on the same day. If the new rules only protect new accounts, old assets remain exposed; if the protocol forces changes to old accounts, it will touch on ownership and compatibility issues. The Frame transactions, code account restrictions, and old validation exit paths discussed in Hegotá essentially serve as a bridge for gradual migration: first enabling accounts to have programmable verification, then allowing new signature systems to enter, and finally gradually reducing the status of old keys as the highest authority. For the value of $ETH, the challenge is not just shouting "quantum-resistant," but ensuring that during migration normal users are not frozen, no centralized custody points are created, and no permanent backdoors are left. Whoever can securely bring the old world into the new rules will truly complete the upgrade.
Dormant accounts are especially tricky: holders may have long lost contact but still own valid assets. The protocol cannot sign migrations on their behalf, nor can it assume silence equals abandonment, making the transition design even more difficult than the algorithm choice.
Migration solutions must be not only secure but also enable ordinary wallets to complete the process.$BTC Tonight at 20:30, the US September non-farm payroll data will be released, with the market expecting an increase of 84,000 to 85,000 jobs. BTC has already started an upward trend in advance; the sell wall near 85,000 has been absorbed by buy orders, current price is 86,128.
However, a pre-data rally is not necessarily a good sign; be highly alert to "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
Even if the non-farm data is positive, it is easy to see a short-term spike testing the 88,000 resistance level, followed by a rapid pullback. The 87,400–88,000 range is the most critical core resistance in this round, with heavy selling pressure accumulated here.
The 4-hour chart has already broken above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a short-term need for a correction. The previous resistance at 85,500 has now turned into the first support; the key defense remains at 82,500. As long as this level is not effectively broken, the large-scale bullish structure remains intact.
Two scenarios:
✅ Non-farm data significantly weaker than expected: a short-term surge to 88,000; focus on whether volume can support a stable hold above this level. Only if it holds can there be a chance to attack above 90,000; if the surge lacks strength, a direct pullback will follow.
❌ Non-farm data stronger than expected: rate hike expectations rise again, directly pressuring the market, causing a quick retracement to the 84,000–85,500 range.
Volatility will increase tonight; do not chase highs. Long positions already have floating profits; it is recommended to take profits in batches to protect gains and avoid giving back all profits. DYOR, strictly control position size.
⚠️ Market analysis only, not investment advice #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $DOGE is most prone to sudden surges when sentiment heats up, and just as likely to retrace back once the hype fades. Its strength lies in its spread and liquidity, not in stable cash flow. For this phase, I only watch if it can hold after a volume breakout; if volume shrinks while price surges, don't mistake a single pump call for a trend.$SAND SAND has surged significantly this time, and many people are already thinking about shorting, but my approach is different.
To start shorting, I would at least wait until the big short holders are beaten down badly before considering entering the market. Shorting at this position is too early.
Looking at the position data, long traders have a profit ratio as high as 85.14%, while shorts are largely losing, with many shorts trapped and still holding their positions. In this situation, short stop-loss orders will likely continue to push prices higher, which is a typical short squeeze scenario.
Shorting against the trend now is like deliberately running into a short squeeze.
Don't fight a strong trend head-on; wait until shorts are fully liquidated, long sentiment peaks, and clear signs of weakening appear before trying to play the pullback.
Patience is always paramount when shorting against the trend.很多人一上来就满仓博弈高风险品种，幻想短期暴富。 成熟的玩法其实是「核心+卫星」： ✅ 核心仓位（80%-90%）：宽基指数，纳指、标普这类，靠长期复利打底，负责完成你的基础财富目标。波动可控，拿得住就能吃到时代增长。 ⚠️ 卫星仓位（≤10%）：拿一小部分闲钱博弈高弹性资产。 铁律：这笔钱全部亏光，完全不影响你的人生储蓄计划。 绝大多数人翻车，就是把卫星做成了主力。 赚一点就加大本金，一旦回撤，直接击穿全部规划。 投资最难的不是寻找暴利机会，是管住资金分配的比例。 长期赚钱的人，都懂得区分：什么钱用来慢慢积累，什么钱用来试错。$BTC Structural Tug-of-War Between Macro Pressure and Structural Support
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, the US dollar index strengthened to 101.67, and global risk assets generally came under pressure, with Bitcoin briefly retreating to $83,600. In a high interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises sharply, causing systemic suppression of crypto valuations.
On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that although Bitcoin has entered an initial upward phase, net inflows into spot ETFs have significantly declined from the late September peak, with daily trading volume only about $6.4 billion, near the lowest since the ETF launch, and the rally has yet to gain broad capital confirmation. There is strong selling pressure in the $85,000 to $85,500 range, with $77,200 as key support.
At the institutional level, mid-term optimistic signals are emerging. Citi raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price to $113,000 and Ethereum's to $3,028, citing renewed concerns over currency depreciation, expected resumption of ETF inflows, and improving macro conditions. On October 1, total net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $103 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at $196 million, indicating signs of capital warming.
The current core contradiction lies in the upward shift of the interest rate anchor suppressing valuations, while institutional allocation demand provides structural support.
If trading volume continues to expand and breaks through the $85,500 resistance, the rebound is likely to continue; otherwise, rising rate hike expectations may trigger a new round of pullbacks.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Reviewed last month's trades, and indeed they were a complete mess, not following the pattern. Started with a rebound on very low volume, doing range arbitrage, and although the three trades based on news didn't lose money and even made some profit, it was clear that I didn't control the little voice in my heart, lacking patience.
Used naked K-lines of different timeframes all at once. Frequently switched targets, trying to apply four different timeframes to different targets, which definitely didn't work.
Got greedy, causing issues with the entry points of each trade. Not patient enough to execute. Attention was not focused enough.
Next, after adjusting my state, I will separate by entry points and return to trading based on the trend of the timeframe. What to do and what not to do at the end of a rebound cycle. Will strictly adhere to this.
After all, missed trades cost nothing, but reckless trades can lose everything.
If I can't adjust this month, then it's time for more self-discipline. Stay out of the market and understand myself before coming back.
If I want to make another 100x in 3 years, some ups and downs are actually good. The early stage was too smooth, which felt a bit unusual.
Wishing everyone a new month with your accounts soaring all the way.
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 The issue with ZEC is also insufficient adjustment, and it suddenly fell below the platform, causing the overall upward momentum now to be weaker than UNI.
As shown by the white line example in the picture. On the left, the white line for ZEC is still oscillating upward during the ETH market adjustment.
But on the right, the white line directly shows oscillating downward movement, breaking below the lowest point on the left. Weakness is fully evident.
It is no longer my optimal choice now. Before Nonfarm Night: Bullish, but Not Rushing to Bet
At the moment, I lean more towards the bulls. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both gradually rising—not a sharp surge, but a stepwise upward movement, which is actually healthier. I've exited all my short positions on Bitcoin, leaving only one short on Ethereum as a hedge and an observation window.
What truly weighs on the market isn't the ETF, but the high interest rates. The higher the yield, the easier it is to suppress the valuation of risk assets. So tonight's Nonfarm is crucial: if the data is weak, the market will continue to bet on a pause in rate hikes, which is bullish; if the data is strong, expectations for another hike this year will return, which is bearish.
Personally, I tend to think the data tonight will be somewhat favorable, especially since the PCE has already given some clues. But subjective judgment cannot replace the market's actual movement. Before the news is confirmed, I won't open new positions. There are too many uncertainties now, so caution is more important than boldness. Being bullish is fine, but let's wait for Nonfarm to provide direction first.
— For personal review only, not investment advice.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 In October, Ajian will suggest that everyone add two new observation targets besides traditional macro factors such as oil, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds: AI capital expenditure and the real use of stablecoins. Why? Those who pay attention may have already noticed that the market is showing two completely different capital flows:
One is traditional capital: US dollar → US Treasury bonds → stocks → corporate financing;
The other is new capital: US dollar stablecoins → RWA → on-chain finance → AI Agent
Although these two lines have not fully converged yet, they are getting closer and closer, and the real big opportunity may appear after traditional financial capital and on-chain financial efficiency begin to share the same infrastructure.
This is also why Ajian has been subtly instilling a concept in my content for everyone over the past few months: do not view Crypto as a separate industry; it should be seen as a new layer of interface growing on top of the traditional financial system I've added more margin, pushing my liquidation price above $90K. 😎 $BTC keeps climbing, but I'm still not convinced this rally will last. Could this be the final push before a major correction? Tonight's non-farm payroll data could bring serious volatility. Even strong momentum needs a healthy pullback, and weak data could change the market direction. I'm holding my short positions and watching closely. Will this trade finally go my way? What do you think, brothers? 🚀📉 $BTC $ETH $ZEC I think breaking even should no longer be a problem
This round of $BTC and $ETH rebound
One broke through 86000, the other broke through 2700
Almost both nearly broke their previous highs
In contrast, ZEC can't even break through 1400
It's clear that ZEC's trend is weaker than the overall market
If a coin was strong early on but suddenly weakens later
Most likely the trend has already reversed
In this situation, the worst thing is to try to catch a rebound and go long
Holding a short position is actually a better choice
I am not considering closing to stop loss now
But continuing to hold the short position
If ZEC still has a chance to break the previous high
This time I plan to add to the short position
If it falls below 1300
It will further confirm the continuation of the downtrend
In short, breaking even is a high probability event now
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🌊 Waves are back to talk about gold again!
Tonight the non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and gold is currently stuck around 4100. The market has entered a critical observation window, and once the data is out, volatility may significantly increase.
If the non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations, for example below 60,000, the market might reprice rate cut expectations, giving gold a chance to rebound to the 4185–4200 range.
Conversely, if employment data is exceptionally strong, exceeding 100,000, gold may come under pressure and break below 4100, with the 4000 area becoming a key focus for the market.
However, don’t just focus on gold’s candlestick chart. What’s more worth watching now are U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. If Treasury yields remain high and the dollar index continues to strengthen, the short-term pressure on the non-yielding asset gold will persist.
Of course, the long-term logic cannot be ignored: global central banks continue to increase gold reserves, and the de-dollarization trend is still developing. These factors remain important variables for gold’s long-term demand.
📌 In summary: control your pace before the non-farm data release, and watch the direction after the data comes out. Don’t chase gains or cut losses prematurely.
$XAU $ETH $SOL
#gold #nonfarm #USTreasuryYields #ratehikeexpectations #Crypto #dailyorbit美国非农就业数据将成为短线市场关注焦点，重点观察新增就业人数 + 失业率组合。 📊 三种可能情景： 🟢 非农 <70K + 失业率上升 * BTC：可能偏多反应 * ETH：偏多 * DOGE：可能表现更强 * PEPE：可能表现更强 ⚪ 非农 70K–110K * BTC：震荡概率增加 * ETH：震荡 * DOGE：震荡 * PEPE：震荡 🔴 非农 >110K + 失业率下降 * BTC：可能面临下行压力 * ETH：可能承压 * DOGE：下行风险增加 * PEPE：下行风险增加 📌 不过，市场最终反应并不只取决于非农数字本身，还要结合失业率、工资增速、美债收益率以及美联储利率预期一起判断。 今晚真正值得看的，是数据公布后市场如何重新定价10月利率路径。👀 #BTC #ETH #DOGE #PEPE #NFP #Crypto #DailyOrbitToday's Market Snapshot: BTC and ETH both rise nearly 3%
🧡 BTC
Currently at $86,145, 24-hour increase +2.84%, breaking above the $86,000 mark during the day. The rise is mainly driven by two forces: first, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day inflow of about $196 million, with institutional funds continuously entering through compliant channels; second, escalating US-Iran tensions and ongoing navigation disputes in the Strait of Hormuz have led to marginal safe-haven inflows into BTC.
Key levels: Resistance above at $86,900, support below in the $85,000–$85,200 range.
💙 ETH
Currently at $2,753.97, 24-hour increase +2.82%, breaking through $2,750. The catalysts come from two aspects: the Glamsterdam upgrade is confirmed to launch on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, with the roadmap progress providing sentiment support; BitMine chairman Tom Lee publicly stated at Korea Blockchain Week that ETH could be "well above $10,000" in the next 12 months, sparking mid-to-long-term expectation discussions.
Key levels: Resistance above at $2,800, a breakout with volume could open up space; support below at $2,680–$2,657. Institutions are willing to engage with DOGE not because of community hype, but due to market structure: this chain provides a quiet entry channel for large funds.
A single million-dollar order directly hitting the order book would have its impact cost eat into profits first. The TWAP solution is to split the large order into dozens or hundreds of smaller orders, releasing them evenly over time, each order kept within the order book depth, so that as soon as it lands, it is absorbed without pushing the price up. DOGE’s depth on top exchanges can sustain this rhythm, which is the premise for controllable slippage.
The value of 1-minute block times lies elsewhere. On-chain transfers, deposit confirmations, and cross-exchange allocations have a waiting window an order of magnitude shorter than BTC’s 10 minutes. When institutions run TWAP, margin replenishment, hedge adjustments, and OTC settlements are all stuck waiting for on-chain confirmations; if the ammunition arrives 10 minutes late, the entire execution plan must be rearranged. DOGE compresses this friction to the minute level.
Depth determines impact cost, block speed determines capital turnover; combined, $DOGE’s large order execution efficiency holds up among mainstream assets. For institutions, only assets that can build positions without disturbing the market make it onto the long-term list.$MEGA short-term reversal, why hasn't the 4-hour given up yet?
$MEGA +5.08% in 24 hours, current price 0.04838. On the surface, it's just a fluctuation, but the real conflict lies in the timeframes: 1-hour is bearish, 4-hour is bullish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it completely.
Volume does not support the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.04 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw a conclusion.
Set emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.05025621, currently bearish; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.04638075, currently bullish. Short timeframes reveal changes, long timeframes limit imagination. When both agree, watch out for overcrowding; when they conflict, watch out for reversals. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.$160, 50,000 $AAVE, 8 million USDC.
An address suspected to be from the Aave team has been slowly selling off like this over the past week.
What I admire is not how much they sold, but the way they sold it.
The coins obtained from vesting between 2020 and 2021 basically had negligible cost.
At this point, selling 50,000 per week at an average price of $160, without crashing the market, without hyping, quietly converting to cash.
The contrast is clear: previously they held coins as the team, now they are selling as ordinary counterparties.
There are still 30,000 left, worth $5.5 million, probably not in a hurry.
What really needs attention is not whether this batch is sold out, but whether the remaining 30,000 will also be slowly sold off like this.
Honestly, I’d rather encounter such counterparties less often.
They hold vested coins, while I hold real money; this game was never quite fair from the start.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $AAVE 光看数字就已经够刺激了 😂 🟠 $BTC • 持仓：约 538 BTC • 仓位价值：约 4,620万美元 • 杠杆：40倍 • 开仓价：84,620美元 • 当前浮盈：约 9.2万美元（+7.95%） • 预估强平价：约 74,700美元 • 已支付资金费：约 1.85万美元 40倍杠杆下，哪怕只是几个百分点的价格波动，对仓位的影响都会被明显放大。 接下来就看BTC能否继续守住关键价格区域，以及高杠杆仓位会不会出现新的调整。👀📊 #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #DailyOrbitMy friend really cracked me up. He went short at 2768, then it dropped to 2753, bounced back to 2763 and he ran, always wanting to short but then getting scared. Now he says he'll short at 2828 and hold all the way down to 2200. He says he just needs one chance and is determined to catch this pullback. It’s hilarious. I directly asked him if he’s trading short-term or long-term. I want to see if he’ll actually run if it really pulls back to 2500.Hello, buddies, I am Chao Ge 🤝
Q: 🚀 Just now, a buddy messaged me privately: Why is it that even when the direction is right, I am losing money while the market makers are making money?
➡️ Friends, it's very common to be right about the direction but still lose money.
You predict that Bitcoin will rise, open a 5x long position, and set your liquidation price at 82000. Then the market maker first pushes the price down to 81500 to trigger your liquidation, and after you are forced out, the price turns around and rallies to 86000. Your direction was right, right? But your chips are gone, and you can only watch helplessly.
👉 This is exactly how the market makers make money. They don't focus on the direction, but on liquidity. They clearly see where you set your stop loss and liquidation price. They first aggressively push the price in the opposite direction to wipe out all high-leverage and close-stop-loss positions, eating up the bloodied chips, then follow the main trend to pull the price back up.
👉 From a technical perspective, you can understand this by looking at open interest and liquidation heatmaps. Before every major market move, there is often a reverse spike to shake out retail traders. Also, consider funding rates: if you hold positions overnight, longs have to pay interest, and over time, the cost alone can wear you down.
🎈 So remember, being right about the direction is only the first step.
Controlling leverage, setting proper stop losses, and building positions in batches are ten thousand times more important than just guessing the right direction.
🎈 Right direction but wrong position sizing, and you can still die a painful death. Don't let the market makers use your liquidation orders as fuel.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
$BTC
$ETH $ONE Short-term Three Scenarios
1. Holding above 0.00211
Most likely to oscillate between 0.0021–0.00256, suitable for watching order books and event news, not suitable for heavy positions chasing.
2. Volume breakout above 0.00256
Short-term may test 0.00268 → 0.00289. But ONE's market cap is only about $30 million, with trading volume around $11–15 million, so small funds can cause large fluctuations; the breakout may not be reliable.
3. Breaking below 0.00211
Short-term tends to continue probing 0.0018–0.00182. If this area also fails, it may retest the historical low region near 0.000536.
Three triggers affecting short-term price movements
● ERC-20 migration progress: Once contract address, snapshot time, and exchange switch announcements are clear, it can easily trigger a pulse-like surge.
● Exchange deposit and withdrawal status: If a major exchange suspends deposits/withdrawals or delists the trading pair, short-term weakness will occur quickly.
● BTC/ETH trends: ONE's correlation with BTC is about 0.83; if BTC or ETH pull back, ONE usually falls more.
Operation reminder
ONE is not a typical trend coin in the short term but an event-driven + low liquidity game. Price quotes vary greatly across exchanges, order book depth is thin, prone to slippage and false breakouts. If participating short-term, smaller positions and right-side confirmation before action are more suitable; breaking below $0.0018 should be regarded as a risk signal. $BTC has been sideways for ten days after falling back from 87390. The market looks like a compressed spring, lacking buying momentum upward and lacking panic downward. Based on past experience with major consolidations, 15-day, 30-day, and 60-day periods are often important turning points. The 15-day mark is approaching now, coinciding with the end of the holiday. Funds are likely to remain cautious before the holiday, making the market more prone to range-bound tug-of-war rather than a smooth one-sided move.
At this stage, the biggest risk is mistaking consolidation for a trend. Frequent trades often get repeatedly shaken out by up-and-down spikes. Instead of guessing the direction early, it's better to wait for the window to materialize, observe volume, key levels, and cycle resonance, then follow the trend accordingly. If volume continues to shrink and the market grinds, it's best to watch more and trade less. Cycle patterns are historical statistics and do not guarantee outcomes.
$ETH $SNDK #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The biggest concern for $ADA is not the price fluctuations themselves, but that after a price move, participation hasn't kept up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.68 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour trends appearing strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
The current price is 0.2564, about 5.23% above the 1-hour support at 0.243, and about 0.35% below the resistance at 0.2573. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 0.2573 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it falls below 0.243, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.2389. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.2573 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Is this volume contraction movement a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$BTC 和 $ETH 刚刚经历了一轮明显的高杠杆清算，大量过度加仓的仓位被市场强制出清，短线杠杆水平得到明显压缩。 ➤ $BTC：清算金额超1.3亿美元 ➤ $ETH：清算金额超7,500万美元 ➤ 高杠杆仓位减少 ➤ 市场仓位重新调整 这种快速波动虽然会让市场短线更加剧烈，但同时也能清理掉部分过度杠杆，为下一轮行情重新腾出空间。 接下来重点关注： 📊 清算后的资金是否重新入场 📈 BTC、ETH能否快速收复关键价格区域 ⚠️ 以及美国就业数据公布后，市场波动是否进一步放大 #BTC #ETH #Crypto #USJobsDataToday #BTCETHETFOutflows #DailyOrbitBTC is overall bullish, but it is not recommended to open new positions before tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls.
The current price is close to the 86,200–88,000 supply zone; do not open new positions before tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls; only trade pullback longs in the swing, avoid chasing breakouts.
My basis for judgment:
▶️ Price has stabilized above 80,000, marking the third consecutive week of gains this week,
▶️ 24-hour short liquidations exceed $200 million, funding rates are roughly 8%–11% annualized, longs are not crowded.
▶️ This wave is mainly short squeezes and leverage, not continuous ETF buying; there has been about $150 million net outflow in recent days.
▶️ The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5.2%; Nonfarm Payrolls is a binary event with poor risk-reward for chasing longs or topping out.
Specific trading suggestions:
$BTC buy on pullback to 84,200–85,000,
stop loss if daily close falls below 82,800, target first 87,200–88,000, then 90,000.
If 4-hour closes above 88,000 and ETFs resume continuous net inflows, consider chasing longs with targets 90,000–92,000.
If daily close falls below 82,800 and yields rise again after Nonfarm Payrolls, switch to short, first target 80,800–81,500.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Mattel MAT surged about 19% in one day to around 15, with rumors that ABG's bid intention exceeds $20. I'm not chasing it yet.
Here's what I saw: Just closed this daily K-line, open about 12.6, high about 17.23, low about 12.4, close about 15.04, up about 18.8% from the previous close of about 12.66, with an intraday high touching about 17.2.
WSJ reported that Authentic Brands Group is privately discussing an acquisition, with a valuation intention exceeding $20 per share, about $6 billion; CNBC said negotiations are still very preliminary, and neither side has officially announced.
The day before, Mattel just announced that the CEO of Condé Nast will take over Mattel, and the stock price fell about 4% on Wednesday. Once the rumor broke, trading volume immediately surged.
Simply put: This is an emotional spike caused by "acquisition rumors + leadership change," not a toy order or profit doubling overnight.
I think short-term you shouldn't chase this long upper shadow; the high was about 17.23 but fell back to about 15. The official offer hasn't been revealed yet, and the rumor stage is most vulnerable to falsification and pullback.
My approach: just observe and don't chase, don't buy at the emotional peak.
If it fails, watch for a break below today's low of about 12.4 to continue down, or wait for a proper close above about 17.23 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for the official offer to act, or do you think the $20 narrative is strong enough to get in directly?
$MAT $DIS $HAS
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ADA This chart is a bit interesting, up 3.4%, but the volume is exactly the same as usual, not even doubled.
What does it mean? It means no new funds have come in. I've seen many volume-less rallies; most are short covering plus spontaneous moves, not someone building a position. If you chase in at 0.255, the next bearish candle could trap you halfway up the mountain.
What I really want to see is when it can break above 0.27 with increased volume—that would mean real money is coming in. What am I planning to do now? Nothing. It only rose 0.9% in 7 days, hasn't even chosen a direction, so why rush? $ADA #OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 Bro, OpenAI's valuation is really hitting astronomical numbers every day
Latest news, it's raising a new round of funding with a target valuation of 1.4 trillion USD, planning to raise at least 30 billion USD. Note, this is still primary market financing after postponing the IPO. Annualized revenue is already approaching 70 billion, with growth over 70% since early Q3, and enterprise business revenue has doubled. This fundraising ability is indeed fierce
But what’s really worth savoring is another piece of information. Trump said in an interview that he might consider a government shareholding model for OpenAI and Anthropic similar to Intel's. Although there is no specific plan yet, the signal is explosive. The US government wants to directly become a shareholder, which shows AI is no longer just a business competition but has completely risen to a national strategy. Capital, policy, and technology are all tied together. $SNDK
What does this mean for our crypto circle? Two levels
First, liquidity is being severely drained. AI giants are crazily absorbing funds in the primary market, and global hot money is flowing there. This is also one of the fundamental reasons why US Treasury yields are capped at 5.27% and Bitcoin is consolidating around 83,000. Money is chasing AI’s super returns, so the crypto circle naturally gets less
Second, the emotional reflection. AI concept coins in the crypto circle will ride the hype, but such major events can’t bring direct buying pressure to crypto in the short term. Instead, it’s a reminder that the fiercer the capital expenditure in traditional fields, the easier risk assets fall into a zero-sum game🟢 If NFP is much weaker than expected
Example: 40K–60K, especially if unemployment rises to 4.2%+.
* BTC: Potentially bullish as markets may price less Fed tightening.
* ETH: Similar reaction; volatility could be larger.
* DOGE/PEPE: Higher-risk assets could react strongly if crypto moves into risk-on mode.
* Gold: Potentially bullish because weaker employment can reduce rate expectations and yields.如果今晚美国非农就业数据没有明显超预期，同时市场进一步确认美联储10月维持利率不变，那么比特币接下来继续向 9万美元附近靠拢，并不是没有可能。 此前压制BTC走势的重要因素之一，就是市场突然升温的加息预期。 但现在情况正在发生变化： 📌 最新PCE通胀数据低于市场预期 📌 10月加息概率已经从此前接近70%的高位明显回落 📌 如果今晚非农没有大幅强于预期，市场可能进一步降低加息定价 📌 一旦美债收益率同步回落，风险资产的宏观压力也可能继续缓解 从这个角度看，今晚非农更像是一个重要的“确认信号”。 如果就业数据偏温和 + 加息预期继续下降 + 美债收益率走低，那么BTC的上方空间可能重新打开。 🎯 接下来重点关注 8.6万—8.8万美元区域的突破情况。如果市场情绪继续改善，9万美元整数关口可能再次成为多空争夺的焦点。 ⚠️ 以上仅为市场信息与个人观点，不构成投资建议。加密货币波动较大，请做好风险管理。 #BTC #Bitcoin #非农 #美联储 #PCE #加密货币 #DailyOrbitMany people are still asking
whether $CORE can still rise
But I think a more worthwhile question is
when the next wave of BTCFi truly explodes
can CORE become one of the value capture players
Core's current logic is no longer just
about building a Bitcoin ecosystem chain
but moving in a direction where
$BTC generates revenue
the ecosystem generates income
income drives CORE buybacks
combined with BTC Staking
LST
BTCFi
Neobank
RWA and other applications continuously landing
If this flywheel really starts running
CORE's valuation logic will also change
Previously, people might have valued it as
a public chain
In the future, the market might see it as
Bitcoin financial infrastructure + income + buybacks
Of course
there is still a long way to go
and in early September Core just completed an emergency hard fork to fix validator reward anomalies
In the short term, the focus is still on whether network stability and user confidence can recover.
But if I were to preemptively put a long-term watchlist
CORE still deserves a spot
not because of whether it rises now
but because I value $BICO more
When the next wave of Bitcoin liquidity truly starts seeking yield
whether CORE can catch that money
this might be CORE's biggest story in the next phase.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Several waves of misjudgments, impatience led to losing more than half 🫠, as expected, still need to calm down to make decisions$CT can only reach this level, this coin has increased sevenfold in three days, and the spot listing surged 500% in just fifteen minutes. It feels very easy to dump, brothers don't chase the high, especially on weekends