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$ETH
The biggest variable coming up is the technical upgrade/hard fork: a medium to long-term narrative, often "good news already priced in" in the short term — it's easy to hype expectations a week before the upgrade, but there's a high probability of a pullback after it lands.
Personally, I'm bearish: 4-hour bearish alignment, each rebound weaker than the last, I'd rather wait for a retracement than chase the rebound. Rather than guessing the direction, I pay more attention to 2413.6 and 2485.3 — the market decides the direction, but you must act when these lines break. I was conservative last round; this time I don't want to wait too long, but I won't chase highs, only buy on dips.
News: Related to Binance — new data shows ETF funds flowing out, and there are also whale-level on-chain movements (AMBCrypto, 10 minutes ago). The impact of such news usually gets digested within a day or two, don't treat it as a long-term logic.
ETH current price is 2416.0, down 2.52% in 24 hours. It's testing support at 2413.6, direction is still undecided.
I hold long ETH positions with an average price of 2488.1, currently floating a loss of 2.9%. I won't stubbornly hold at this level; I'll reduce near 2485.3, and clear positions if it breaks 2386.0. Under this structure, I won't open new longs, waiting for it to return above EMA20.
Daily level is still consolidating near moving averages, big direction undecided. 4-hour structure is bearish alignment, volume is moderate, MACD green bars shrinking, the downtrend is slowing."92.4%: An Uneventful Rate Hike and a Chairman Who Refuses to Speak"
Tonight at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision. CME data shows a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike—just one month ago, this figure was only 33%.
If implemented, the rate will rise to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first hike since 2023 and the new chairman Waller's first test in office.
But the suspense isn't about "whether to hike." Waller refuses to provide forward guidance or submit his own dot plot. The real decisive factor is the anonymous 19-member dot plot: if the median rate by the end of 2026 stands above 4.0%, it signals continued tightening; if below, it means a "precautionary hike" and a one-time event.
The market has already given up in advance: BTC fell below 76,000, ETH lost 2,400, and 115,000 people were liquidated for $670 million. When everyone bets on the same direction, the 7.6% moving against it is the true black swan. XRP's 1.414 spike today surged then slid back down, and no one dared to follow the 1.492 wave.
Yesterday's low was 1.372, the high touched 1.492, closing at 1.390. Today it opened near 1.390, peaked at 1.414 but didn't break through, the low was 1.265, current price around 1.289. Volume is still there, selling continues in this downward segment.
Resistance remains between 1.414 and 1.492, above that is around 1.45. If 1.265 breaks below, 1.264 is likely the next target; if that doesn't hold, the short term will look for lower levels.
Short term focus is whether the current price around 1.289 can hold. If it can't, consider it as still digesting the drop from 1.492, don't chase at this price. Those holding should watch if the low at 1.265 today can hold; if not, consider reducing positions. For those looking to buy, wait for a pullback and failure to break 1.414 before considering, don't catch a falling knife mid-air. $XRP 🔷 Lunch limits: two longs
🟢 $TRX — long:
• CVD positive on spot and futures, OI rising: spot leads — healthy signature
• Limit 0.326-0.332: fuel + MA99 1d + high 4h
• Take 0.3415-0.3442, then 0.3500-0.3520; stop 0.3205
🟢 $UNI — long from the lower shelf:
• CVD negative on both sides = distribution, but 1d trend alive
• Limit 6.10-6.24: lower half of fuel + MA7 1d + MA99 4h
• Take 6.45-6.52, then 6.80-6.97; stop 5.96; below 6.0 — board invalid
⚠️ 20:00-22:30 MSK FOMC: no positions🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Is a Chain Reaction 👀
📊 $BTC holding the market gives traders room to increase risk. $ETH gaining against BTC would be the first shift, while $SOL outperforming ETH would show that risk appetite is reaching further down the curve.
🧠 The sequence is measurable: ETH/BTC ↑ → SOL/ETH ↑ → SOL/BTC ↑. Each relative-strength move confirms that capital is progressing rather than simply following BTC.
⚠️ If ETH/BTC stays flat or weak, SOL strength has less evidence behind it and the chain breaks early.
🔥 Watch the sequence — one link failing can stop the rotation.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 $RAVE This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is dancing on its own.
Before going to bed last night, RAVE showed strong bullish traps; every rally fell just short, with clear resistance above. When I saw that level, I knew no one would catch it going up, volume didn't cooperate, so I casually signaled a short around 0.2097.
The last glance before sleep was still volatile; opening the market this morning, from 0.2097 down to 0.1652 already gave the answer, +424.41% secured. The wait was worth it, the rhythm was right—tough in the beginning, but very rewarding later.
First, close 80%, move the stop loss for the remaining 20% to the break-even point. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don't give back the gains. Take profits when you should, don't be greedy for the last bit.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they're the smartest. Even if you only make one point, as long as you take it away, it's yours; any unrealized gains beyond that belong to the market.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase shorts; if you miss it, don't chase. I'll alert you first when the next, more comfortable opportunity comes. There are still chances, don't rush.
$XRP $ADA Something interesting is happening while the market is nervous.
Crypto treasury companies have continued adding $BTC, $ETH and $SOL even while September prices have been under pressure.
That's worth paying attention to.
Not because it guarantees prices go higher.
But because it shows that some companies are treating these assets as strategic holdings rather than simply short-term trades.
$BTC → treasury asset
$ETH → programmable financial infrastructure
$SOL → high-performance blockchain exposure
Different reasons.
Same industry.
When price gets ugly, I want to know who is still willing to build and accumulate.
That tells me more than a green candle does.
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Has to Broaden 👀
📊 $BTC holding its structure keeps liquidity anchored. $ETH needs to start taking relative strength from BTC, while $SOL needs to capture that momentum rather than move independently.
🧠 The clean signal is ETH/BTC higher + SOL/ETH higher while BTC remains stable. That combination would show demand progressing from the largest asset into higher-beta exposure.
⚠️ If BTC stays dominant and ETH/BTC remains weak, a SOL spike alone does not confirm a market-wide rotation.
🔥 The real move begins when strength spreads, not when one coin pumps.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 $ETH I really didn't do anything this round, but the result is good, and that's enough.
When the screen is full of green, ETH trading volume is low, and the sell pressure is strong. I judged that there was an opportunity to short, so I tried a small position first.
From 2,522.89 to 2,407.75, the short position gained +456.38%, it was worth the wait.
Closed 80% first, kept 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't panic.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move. Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it's yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market. For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and I will notify you immediately.
$BTC $XRP 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Has a Pressure Point 👀
📊 $BTC holding firm keeps the risk window open. $ETH is the key bridge: stronger performance against BTC would signal that buyers are expanding beyond the market leader.
🧠 The next confirmation is SOL outperforming ETH. If that follows an ETH/BTC breakout, the sequence becomes BTC stability → ETH leadership → SOL acceleration.
⚠️ If ETH cannot gain ground on BTC, SOL strength remains a standalone move rather than evidence of a broader rotation.
🔥 Watch ETH first. SOL is the confirmation.
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49
#AISafetyDebateEscalates $BEAT has been steadily declining, with all daily moving averages pressing above the price, creating heavy resistance. It briefly stopped falling after hitting 0.0729, and now has slightly rebounded to 0.0817, which is a weak pullback during the downtrend.
Such small-cap coins' rebounds are most prone to bull traps, with EMA5 and EMA10 layers suppressing from above, limiting the rebound space. If the rebound lacks strength, it can easily retest previous lows. Holding positions might seem like waiting to break even, but small coins have poor liquidity, making it hard to exit during deep drops. Every sideways consolidation and rebound is a window to reduce positions.
For those skilled at holding positions, there's no one else but me, but in this steady downtrend, stubbornly holding is essentially betting on a weak rebound over time, which carries significant risk. 🎯 FOMC revealed tonight: It's not about "whether to raise or not," but "what to say after the raise"
The market has fully priced in a 25bp rate hike. A hike is not surprising. What really determines BTC's movement tonight is the statement after the rate hike——
Is it "One-and-Done," or "there's more to come"?
Three scenarios, three destinies:
🟢 Scenario One: Hike, but dovish tone
Raise by 25bp + dovish stance. Emphasize "continue to watch the data," no hint of consecutive hikes.
Even though oil prices and long-term bonds look ugly now, the market might directly trade the "bad news priced in."
$BTC Watch for a short squeeze in the opposite direction:
Hold above 755 → target 774
Break 774 → retest 795–806 (resistance zone, don't be greedy)
🔴 Scenario Two: Hike, but hawkish tone
Raise by 25bp + hawkish tone. Call out inflation, oil prices, inflation expectations, hinting at possibly another hike by year-end.
This is currently the biggest bearish risk.
BTC will likely drop directly:
First target: 72–70
If 70 doesn't hold → look down to 67–68
At that point, 64 shifts from an "extreme scenario" to a realistic target
⚡ Scenario Three: Surprise no hike
The market has priced in a hike, so if they suddenly hold steady——
Short-term repricing will be very intense. BTC will likely spike to 78–80k or even higher first.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC The failed CLARITY vote erased one of crypto’s biggest regulatory expectations for the next two years.The 50–49 result fell short of the 60 votes needed, leaving the industry without a clear implementation timeline. BTC dropped from near $80K to $74.9K before reclaiming $75K, showing buyers remain active.Still, rising exchange reserves and a 5% 10Y yield add selling pressure. With the FOMC decision tonight, volatility could spike again. High-leverage positions risky#FOMCRateCallThisWeek 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Needs a Shift 👀
📊 $BTC sets the market’s foundation. $ETH becomes the first signal when buyers start favoring it over BTC, while $SOL becomes the higher-beta confirmation.
🧠 Watch the sequence: ETH/BTC turns higher → SOL/ETH turns higher → SOL/BTC follows. That progression would show capital moving further out on the risk curve.
⚠️ If BTC keeps outperforming both, the market remains Bitcoin-led and the wider rotation is still unconfirmed.
🔥 First the leader changes. Then the capital follows.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 I believe the blockage of the CLARITY Act vote this time could be part of the crypto market’s growing process. Don’t let the short-term volatility alone change your long-term view. 📊 Look at the numbers: 49 votes in favor vs 50 against, just one vote away from reaching the 60-vote threshold. This shows how divided the debate remains — not necessarily an attempt to shut down the crypto industry. Yesterday, when I saw $BTC fall below $75,000, I’ll admit I panicked for a moment and almost closed $USELESS is strengthening against the trend, with relative strength as a highlight, but don’t mistake strength for a safety net.
From the market perspective, $USELESS underwent consolidation and compression earlier; today, trading volume has clearly expanded, and the price has broken upward, indicating a short-term trend turning stronger. After the daily chart retested previous support and confirmed it, a large bullish candle formed on increased volume, showing that buying funds have returned at the lower level. Strengthening against the overall weak market is a relative strength worth noting.
The core logic is simple: effective support, buying returning, and an upward trend. The key level to watch is whether $0.24 can hold; resistance above is at $0.26, and further up is the previous high at $0.33678. Only a volume breakout above the previous high can open up more space. If you are not holding a position, it’s not recommended to chase the high; wait for a pullback near $0.23 to confirm support before looking for opportunities.
My own feeling is that strengthening against the trend is indeed a signal, but the "fund absorption" of low market cap meme coins can easily be distorted by a few large orders and may not reflect real demand. Tomorrow’s FOMC is the biggest variable; when macro tightens, these highly elastic assets fall faster than anyone else, and stop losses might be triggered by spikes before pulling back. So relative strength can be observed, but don’t treat it as fundamentals, let alone a safety net. If you want to participate, use a small position with stop loss, and wait for pullback confirmation before acting—it’s more reliable than chasing big bullish candles. What’s truly worth watching is not how much it has risen, but whether buying remains at the $0.23 pullback.If I had $1M to manage through this cycle, I wouldn’t go all-in or make a full directional bet based on one FOMC decision. My rough allocation: BTC $300K, ETH $150K, SOL $80K, gold $150K, US tech $100K, stablecoins $170K, and short-term futures $50K. The goal is simple: stay aggressive while keeping cash ready. With rate expectations rising, Treasury yields elevated and oil still high, macro risks remain too important to ignore.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek $BTC and $ETH can both rise, but I don't think they need the same type of demand.
Bitcoin doesn't need thousands of applications running on top of it to make its basic thesis work.
Ethereum is different.
The more people use stablecoins, DeFi, tokenized assets and other applications built around Ethereum, the more important network activity becomes.
That's why I watch them differently.
$BTC → scarcity and monetary properties
$ETH → network utility and applications
Same market.
Very different engines.
And that's exactly why comparing their prices alone doesn't tell the full story.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Is About Leadership 👀
📊 $BTC remains the core benchmark. $ETH becomes the key signal if buyers start rewarding it more than BTC, while $SOL becomes the higher-beta confirmation if it takes the lead from ETH.
🧠 The sequence to watch: ETH/BTC breaks higher → SOL/ETH breaks higher → SOL/BTC follows. That would show risk is expanding in stages instead of remaining concentrated in BTC.
⚠️ If BTC keeps outperforming both, the market is still in a Bitcoin-led phase rather than a broader rotation.
🔥 When leadership changes, capital usually leaves a trail.
#AISafetyDebateEscalates
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Can Be Tracked 👀
📊 $BTC holding firm keeps risk appetite intact. If $ETH begins outperforming BTC, the market is showing broader demand; if $SOL then outperforms ETH, that demand is moving into higher-beta trades.
🧠 The confirmation chain is simple: ETH/BTC higher → SOL/ETH higher → SOL/BTC higher. Three relative-strength signals would tell a clearer story than watching dollar prices alone.
⚠️ If ETH/BTC stays weak, the rotation has not started — even if BTC and SOL are both rising.
🔥 Track the ratios. That’s where the capital shift shows first.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates tonight?
The market is actually quite clear now, with a very high expectation of a 25 basis point hike.
So I actually think the real interesting question tonight is not whether they will raise rates,
but if they do raise, can BTC and ETH continue to drop further?
In the past two days, $BTC has already been hammered by regulatory negative news, and $ETH has followed down,
As for $ZEC, it’s really unique, a splash of green among the crowd, already having its own independent trend, so it can’t be used to judge the whole market, and there’s no need to hype it up. It’s around 1220 now, clearly stronger than BTC and ETH.
If there’s another 25 basis point hike tonight, the market’s first reaction to continue falling is very normal.
But if after the rate hike, BTC doesn’t continue to break below 74000, and ETH starts to slowly recover, then it’s a completely different story.
Because what does this mean?
The negative news has been priced in, the bad news that should have been dumped has already been dumped by the market in advance.
So tonight, my suggestion to brothers is to just focus on BTC and ETH.
Don’t rush to guess bull or bear.
Let’s see how the price reacts after the negative news is priced in. Like fish, don’t eat the first bite of the head, nor the last bite of the tail, we eat the plump belly in the middle.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Next Capital Shift 👀
📊 $BTC staying firm creates the conditions. $ETH breaking away from BTC would be the first evidence of broader demand, while $SOL extending that strength would confirm traders are accepting more risk.
🧠 The sequence to watch: BTC holds → ETH/BTC breaks higher → SOL/ETH confirms. If that chain develops, the move has a clearer path from large-cap strength into higher-beta exposure.
⚠️ If ETH remains stuck behind BTC, SOL may struggle to sustain a move without a broader shift in positioning.
🔥 The real signal is not who rises first — it’s who starts outperforming next.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AISafetyDebateEscalates 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Needs a Trigger 👀
📊 $BTC holding the base keeps the broader setup alive. $ETH becomes the key transition point: sustained outperformance against BTC would show buyers are moving beyond the market leader.
🧠 If ETH/BTC turns higher first, then SOL/ETH follows, the move starts to look like genuine risk expansion rather than three isolated rallies.
⚠️ BTC strength without ETH participation keeps the rotation incomplete, while SOL strength without ETH confirmation can fade quickly.
🔥 Watch the handoff: BTC → ETH → SOL.
#AISafetyDebateEscalates
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 Wednesday review: My ETH short from 2483 to 2495 was poorly timed and executed. I’m confident in the bigger cycle, but futures require precise execution, so position sizing matters. I remain bearish this week: BTC 82.2K and ETH 2.66K look like local tops. BTC 76K may break, with 73K as the next major long zone and ETH below 2.3K. For now, avoid chasing shorts; watch news-driven spikes for short-term opportunities.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 $CP keeps looking weak—down around 83% since launch, with new lows almost every day.
24H volume is only around $15M, while liquidations remain heavily skewed toward longs. With just 27.38% circulating and supply concentrated across a few addresses, volatility remains extreme.
At this point, $CP looks too risky for short-term trading. ⚠️
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates Bro, the current $BTC market is like a girl who just went through a breakup and is still healing. You can't expect her to go get married with you tomorrow; you have to patiently accompany her through it.
Don't get carried away (don't go all in): The current volume is 170.38M, which is a contraction and a slow decline followed by consolidation. Until there's a volume breakout above 77,000, all the rallies can be seen as traps.
Watch the defense line closely: 74,900 (the lower Bollinger Band) is the last bottom line. If this level is broken, it means Willy Woo's "bottoming out" theory is proven wrong by reality, and the price might look for 72,000 or even lower. At that time, you must hold back.
Sell high, buy low, survive in the cracks: Within this range, if you feel itchy, you can lightly bet on a rebound near 74,900-75,000; near 77,000-78,000 on the upside, if there isn't huge volume support, remember to take profits in time and don't get stubborn.
Patience is the most valuable chip right now: Since the bull market duration is unknown, it means we have plenty of time to wait for clear signals. Hold your USDT tight; survival is more important than anything.
Finally, a saying for you: Markets are born in despair, grow in doubt, mature in anticipation, and perish in hope. Right now is that "doubtful" and frustrating phase. Stay steady, don't get shaken out. Cheers! 🍻
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Money Flow Test 👀
📊 $BTC holding steady keeps liquidity anchored. $ETH needs to attract incremental demand, and $SOL needs to capture that demand with stronger performance.
🧠 The rotation thesis becomes concrete when ETH gains against BTC first, then SOL gains against ETH. That progression would indicate traders are moving from core exposure into progressively higher-beta assets.
⚠️ If BTC stays strong but ETH/BTC remains weak, the market is still favoring Bitcoin rather than rotating outward.
🔥 First ETH takes share. Then SOL takes risk.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 This big player’s trading account is on another level. BTC was shorted near $118K and held all the way to $76K, while SOL was shorted at $224 and kept until $97. The profits are huge, but copying these trades blindly is risky. Smaller accounts can’t handle the same drawdowns. The real difference in trading isn’t just capital—it’s patience, discipline, and the mindset to survive volatility.#CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #FOMCRateCallThisWeek Let's talk about some fundamentals of $SNDK
Personally, I don't think SNDK should be simply categorized as an "AI stock." Its fundamentals can be summarized as: NAND supply and demand + Datacenter SSD + AI storage + price increases
Looking at the financial report: Sandisk FY2026 Q4 revenue reached $8.965 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51%, and the company clearly stated that about 1/3 of this quarter's revenue growth came from volume, and 2/3 from price increases; FY2026 Datacenter revenue even grew 437% year-on-year
So the current question is very interesting:
Should SNDK be considered a high-valuation AI stock sensitive to interest rates, or a storage cycle asset experiencing supply shortages and possessing pricing power?
If tonight: 10Y yields rise, Nasdaq falls, NVDA falls, but SNDK remains resilient;
then it can be interpreted as:
The market currently values "real price increases and profits" more than the "long-term AI story"
Conversely, if SNDK falls even more than the semiconductor index, it means the previous huge gains have made duration/valuation the dominant factors again
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Let's talk about some fundamentals of $SNDK
Personally, I don't think SNDK should be simply categorized as an "AI stock." Its fundamentals can be summarized as: NAND supply and demand + Datacenter SSD + AI storage + price increases
Looking at the financial report: Sandisk FY2026 Q4 revenue reached $8.965 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51%, and the company clearly stated that about 1/3 of this quarter's revenue growth came from volume, and 2/3 from price increases; FY2026 Datacenter revenue even grew 437% year-on-year
So the current question is very interesting:
Should SNDK be considered a high-valuation AI stock sensitive to interest rates, or a storage cycle asset experiencing supply shortages and possessing pricing power?
If tonight: 10Y yields rise, Nasdaq falls, NVDA falls, but SNDK remains resilient;
then it can be interpreted as:
The market currently values "real price increases and profits" more than the "long-term AI story"
Conversely, if SNDK falls even more than the semiconductor index, it means the previous huge gains have made duration/valuation the dominant factors again
#AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 🟠 $BTC | 🔵 $ETH | 🟣 $SOL — The Rotation Has a Confirmation Chain 👀
📊 $BTC needs to remain stable first. Then $ETH taking market share from BTC would signal broader participation, with $SOL becoming the next test of aggressive risk appetite.
🧠 The setup is measurable: ETH/BTC turns higher → SOL/ETH turns higher → SOL begins outperforming BTC. That would be a much stronger rotation signal than all three simply moving up together.
⚠️ If those relative-strength pairs fail to improve, BTC can remain the only major source of strength.
🔥 Price shows the move. Relative strength shows where the money is going.
#AISafetyDebateEscalates
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek At 24, sweating palms raised by 60 Americans
To an outsider, this is a joke.
What I did: Held $SOL for a year, couldn’t hold the short position so I took out a loan, ending up owing 60,000.
Result: At 2:15 AM, I stared at my phone waiting for a status.
Lesson here: If you’re not a gambler, don’t use loans to chase a comeback dream.
Neighbors ask if I’ve quit, classmates post screenshots, and I hold back from replying.
The harshest thing in this field isn’t liquidation, it’s not even daring to speak about it.
Whether I get the status or not, I won’t add to my position, just want to hear it called by its full name once.
Wall Street’s dog, this is all the dignity left.
#美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $SOL Just finished reading Oracle's latest quarterly earnings report, and the growth rate is even more astonishing than I originally thought.
Quarterly total revenue reached $19.3 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase.
But the real driver of the numbers isn't traditional software, it's the cloud.
Cloud business revenue hit $11.6 billion, up 62% year-over-year; within that, cloud infrastructure OCI directly reached $7.4 billion, up 121% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, traditional software revenue actually declined by 3%.
There's an even more staggering figure: Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) not yet recognized as revenue have reached $664 billion, an increase of $209 billion compared to the same period last year.
The cost is also clear.
To continue expanding AI computing power and data centers, Oracle's free cash flow this quarter has dropped to negative $5 billion.
Revenue is accelerating, orders have piled up to $664 billion, and money is being poured into data centers at an unprecedented pace.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% Two chains are arguing fiercely over a programming language in the community, and the SUI market is very honest: don't catch flying knives during the defense period
2 hours ago Aptos and Sui argued over the Move route, $SUI only moved +0.26%, the market didn't buy it. I am bearish on the rebound: MA7 0.723 is below MA30, 1-hour ADX is 38.
Two teams from Diem arguing over the route—one sticking to the original Move for safety, the other modifying it to play with parallel execution. The market only recognizes the next candlestick.
The conduction chain is too long—the route dispute benefits the quarterly narrative, but funds only recognize the hourly market. After the event, SUI climbed from 0.6883 to 0.6901, volume ratio 0.925.
The overall market is also undermining—during the defense period, 14 rose and 53 fell, RSI 40.4 is weak, MACD green bars are expanding, the long-short account ratio is 2.2258 squeezed in the bulls; $BTC 76058 also failed to hold the bottom.
Resistance above: 0.6973 (today's high)
Support below: 0.673 (24h low, break to watch 0.6483)
Watershed: 0.673
Conclusion: More likely to fail the rebound at 0.6973 and continue to consolidate at the bottom, not a market that arguing can save.
Halve positions at the rebound to 0.6973, clear positions if it breaks below 0.673. I only trust the market, follow me to watch the next needle.
$SUI $BTCGlanced at the funding rates, and it's truly chilling. ETH -0.0048%, SOL -0.0037%, the funding rates for mainstream coins have almost all turned negative. A few days ago, everyone was still holding on stubbornly, but now shorts are directly paying longs, the market sentiment has really collapsed.
This script is too familiar. The probability of a Fed rate hike has reached 92.7%, the CLARITY Act is a mess again, Bitcoin is stuck around 76,000, and Ethereum is barely hanging on at 2,400. Bulls have been hit three times in a row, leveraged longs are too scared to make a sound. Now that funding rates have turned negative, it means more and more people are shorting, and retail investors are desperately opening shorts to hedge or bet on a crash.
But if we think about it the other way around, when the whole network is bearish and funding rates have all turned negative, that is often the most dangerous time. Once shorts become overcrowded, a big bullish candle from a whale can crush the shorts to the ground and force liquidations. Negative funding rates have never been an absolute signal of a big drop; sometimes they are actually a sign of a bottom, provided the leverage has been cleaned out. Brothers, I just came across this on-chain data and was a bit shocked, so I want to share it with everyone for discussion.
Jinse Finance reported that K33 measured BTC on-chain transfer volume over the past six months at only 3.8 million coins, hitting a historic low.
Honestly, at first glance, I thought I misread the data, since with the current market, everyone expects the chain to be quite active. But thinking it over, this data is actually quite intriguing:
The chips are really sinking: only 3.8 million coins transferred in 180 days, indicating that the vast majority (especially large holders and long-term Hodlers) have no intention to move. Everyone is holding tight or locking up, with on-exchange chips locked up to a scary degree.
The sell-off is almost done: K33’s point about "reduced selling pressure" makes sense. Those who wanted to sell have sold early; what’s left are the die-hards, no one is willing to dump chips cheaply at this level. On-chain liquidity drying up sometimes actually signals the bottom is nearly formed.
But it also means new funds haven’t entered on a large scale: low on-chain activity is a double-edged sword, showing retail and new blood haven’t rushed in yet. It’s basically a battle over existing supply or pure internal exchange order book skirmishes, with very low on-chain settlement demand.
What do you guys think? Is this "extremely dead" on-chain state an intense rest before a big bull market starts, or a sign that liquidity has completely dried up? Personally, I feel the selling pressure has indeed lessened a lot, but when the volume will pick up is really hard to say… $BTC #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 In 6 hours, the tide will turn
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
There was a lot of information early this morning
The "CLARITY Act" on the crypto side failed a procedural vote in the Senate yesterday 50 to 49, missing the 60-vote threshold, so it's stuck—but not completely dead, the text can still be amended and re-voted, though Congress is rushing into the midterm election cycle, so time is tight. Coinbase is more direct: don’t wait for Congress, let the SEC and CFTC use existing authority to set rules first
Funds are also shifting: Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, but Ethereum ETFs have had net inflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling about over 300 million in September, with BlackRock’s ETHA buying daily
Macro is tightening further. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5% intraday, the highest since 2007; crude oil surged to 105, Saudi oil pipelines were shut down by drone attacks, and Libya halted production. US stocks all closed lower last night, risk appetite is cooling. Over 110,000 global liquidations in 24 hours, mostly long positions
The main event in 6 hours—decision at 02:00 tomorrow morning, press conference by Walsh at 02:30. Focus on three things: how many more hikes the dot plot shows for this year, how the statement characterizes energy inflation, and whether Walsh will be hawkish. He cut forward guidance upon taking office; the more concise the statement, the more to ponder, saying or not saying is a signal
Tonight, rather than guessing, better to wait for him to speak, to see if he’s just bluffing the market or really taking action. I won’t make a judgment yet to avoid being proven wrong—what do you think? #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #AI发展焦虑升温，监管讨论升级 Today's trading plan:
Yesterday, $BTC's daily candle closed very weakly, breaking below the long-standing consolidation support. Although a bullish divergence has started to appear on the 4-hour chart, a structural move is still needed before the FOMC decision to confirm a reversal.
Tonight, the focus is on whether the price can rebound to the support-turned-resistance zone around 76,500–76,700. I will look for short-term shorting opportunities; if there is no pullback confirmation, I will not chase shorts at the lows.
Considering the 4-hour bullish divergence and the possibility of "bad news being fully priced in" after the announcement, shorts will only be treated as short-term trades. If the price recovers and holds above this zone again, the shorting logic fails, and we should be cautious of a rapid reversal following the decision.Zhuge is doing better too. I recently shared my thoughts in an OKX text interview:
When exploring new narratives, I focus on fundamentals first. I see tokens as a reflection of their projects, so I prefer assets like $HYPE with strong business activity and mechanisms that return value to holders.
My core portfolio remains concentrated in $BTC, $ETH, and $OKB, usually above 80%. After being liquidated trading futures in 2022, I switched to spot only. Altcoins stay below 20%, keeping risk manage.ETH current price is about 2405, some are calling to buy the dip expecting it to reach 3000, but I don't believe it before the FOMC.
Just saw: On the 4-hour chart, 2403 and 2354 are marked as equal lows, with a target directly drawn to 3000.
Current price is about 2405, down roughly 2.9% intraday, still hovering near key support.
Clarity has been dumped, the dot plot hasn't been released yet, and the leveraged positions have just been shaken out once.
I think this is technical analysts drawing lines, not that US spot demand has returned.
Before tonight's dot plot and statement are released, treating buying the dip as a signal to enter is prone to a second hit.
What to do: wait for the dot plot, don't chase the 3000 narrative.
Invalidation condition: ETH holds above 2443 with volume breakout over 2534, then consider chasing the rally.
Are you waiting for the dot plot to act, or buying ETH now on the dip?
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#This week's FOMC announcement, will the rate hike happen?
#CLARITY bill vote blocked causing controversyA newly created wallet scanned 99,800 HYPE directly through FalconX two hours ago, worth 77.2 million USD. Note, it's a new wallet, not an old retail trader flipping tokens. FalconX is an institutional channel; retail investors don't use that stuff. This clearly shows institutions are entering the market to build positions.
The overall market is now half-dead, BTC is stuck around 76,000, ETH is struggling at 2,400, and SOL can't even hold 100. Meanwhile, on the HYPE side, huge whales are buying daily, institutions are absorbing through OTC channels, and buybacks and burns continue to run. I don't need to say much about Hyperliquid's fundamentals—99% of fee income goes to buybacks and burns, real cash buying pressure, not just hype-driven pump. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Macroscopically, there is no clear guidance right now, and the crypto market hasn't provided direction; funds are all waiting for liquidation. For AIN here, I don't look at the news; the naked K-line is clearer.
On the four-hour level, there are consecutive long lower shadows around 0.02449, indicating buying support at the low level, but heavy sell orders above 0.025 are suppressing it, and the rebound hasn't stabilized. I just finished a previous trade climbing to the seventh floor; glancing at the order book, the buy depth is thicker than the sell depth, but active buy volume hasn't kept up. This kind of structure tends to fake a drop to sweep stops before pulling up.
My plan is to lightly buy on a price pullback to the 0.0238 to 0.0242 range, with a stop loss at 0.0229. A decisive break below here means the lower-level chips are loose, and I won't hold. Take profit is first targeted at 0.0262, and if broken, then look at 0.0275.
If it directly rallies with volume and holds above 0.0256, I can add one more position, but the total position should not be too heavy. In my current situation, I only take trades with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
$AIN
#Robinhood股票代币拟支持实物赎回及投票
@OKX星球 Google really knows how to tease the appetite with this trade; I haven't even reached 350 yet, but the unrealized profit has already given back a bit 😅 Opened long at 337.58, screenshot taken at 346.80, this contract's unrealized profit is 136.56%, still not closed.
What recently keeps me leaning bullish is that it's bringing enterprise clients' business onto the cloud. On September 15, Google and Salesforce announced an expanded partnership; some client businesses are already running on Google Cloud, with plans to start migrating some US clients in Q4. What I value more is this kind of progress: enterprises truly putting their business in means ongoing usage and continuous payment opportunities. Compared to models winning a few more first places, this is closer to the profit logic I care about.
However, the new partnership gives me hope for future business, but there's no need to casually raise my take-profit. When I entered near 337, I was thinking of closing at 350; now that I'm close to the target, I start wondering "can I hold a bit more?" This mindset is all too familiar.
350 stays put for now. If it tries to go higher but can't break through and starts to fall back, I'd rather take some profit early than insist on hitting that round number. I've already taken most of the gains from this move; the rest can wait, but it's not worth risking all the profits made earlier. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $STRK No action, no analysis, just relying on luck, this performance feels embarrassing to even say out loud.
Yesterday afternoon, STRK's rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, no one supported the rise, but selling pressure grew stronger. I signaled a short near 0.02916; when I checked the market after lunch, it was clear it couldn't go higher from that point.
It dropped from 0.02916 to 0.02657, +443.41% straight to the pocket, feeling good brothers. I had some doubts earlier, but it went smoother and smoother, this profit feels solid.
First, take profit on 80%, move the stop loss for the remaining 20% to the cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don't give back the profit. Pocket the big part first, don't be greedy for the last bit.
Panic comes from no plan, losses come from overthinking. Don't get inflated by profits, don't despair over drawdowns.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing shorts easily gets punished by rebounds. I'll signal the next better position as soon as possible. The market isn't short of opportunities, it's short of patience.
$BTC $SOL Just now, $ARB pulled upward. Looking at the data, its rise is very similar to many of the rallies I saw today—there hasn't been much accumulation of long positions at the bottom. Personally, I believe this is the last round of rebound before the crash. At this point, you must be patient—wait patiently for the market to rebound. Once it bounces back, there's a high chance you'll be short. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that during its previous decline, its long-short ratio was all the way up, while open interest was declining. This situation shows that there were quite a few short profit-taking positions at the bottom. At the same time, it also means there were no bulls entering at the bottom. This situation appeared on many coins that rebounded today. Currently, its contract open interest has increased, and the long-short ratio has dropped, indicating that many bears are shorting now. Let's look at the data over a longer period. At present, its contract long-short ratio hasn't fallen to the low point on September 2, but contract open interest has risen to a high. This shows that while the quantity of short positions is sufficient, the quality is still insufficient, and further shorting strength needs to be accumulated. Personally, I think this is not a very good time to short right now; we probably need to wait a bit longer. —————————————————— Today I analyzed quite a few rebounding coins, and their situations are quite similar. They all failed to accumulate at the bottom, then immediately rallied upwardHYPE is currently ~$77.3 One figure caught my attention today. In the last 24 hours, Hyperliquid has bought back and burned approximately 36.7K HYPE worth about $2.84 million. But even more interesting is the overall scale of the mechanism. About 47.2 million HYPE have already passed through the Assistance Fund. At the current price, this is over $3.6 billion in market value of tokens that are in the permanent burn mechanism. And here it is important not to confuse two things. $3.7 billion is not Hyperliquid's expenditure. It is the approximate current value of the accumulated The real stimulus tonight is not the rate hike itself.
But rather—
The market mostly expects the Fed to raise rates,
Yet some are starting to bet it "won't".
Analyst Ali Charts' latest view:
Federal funds futures currently price in about a 93% chance of a 25 basis point hike, but he takes the opposite stance, believing the Fed may hold steady.
Note!
This is a personal prediction, not market consensus.
Even more interesting, the CLARITY Act just got stuck in the Senate, with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, falling short of the 60 needed to advance.
Crypto policy setbacks,
Trump approaching midterm elections,
Economic pressure naturally becomes a new variable.
If there really is no rate hike tonight,
the market might first short-squeeze,
then reprice.
BTC is currently around $75,000.
If there's an unexpected dovish surprise,
don't forget there's resistance up at $82,000.
At 2 AM tonight,
that might be the real turning point.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Over the past week, the performance of established meme coins has been weak, with Dogecoin's valuation declining and its price falling below the 0.08 mark, currently hovering weakly around 0.07952.
Interestingly, on the 2-day chart, the EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 have all turned downward forming a bearish alignment. The KDJ indicator shows a death cross downward, with the J value dropping to a negative -5.8 region, indicating a very bleak short-term trend.
However, technical oversold conditions do not mean an immediate rebound. This correction is mainly suppressed by overall market sentiment and macro capital factors (such as the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking above 5%). Meme coins are highly volatile; even if whales accumulate at low levels, if the broader market continues to weaken, the coin price remains under pressure. Never get overly excited and go heavy just because you see a wick or whale accumulation. The capital cycles of large holders and retail investors are completely different.
Whale movements should only be considered as observation signals, not as buying reasons. Also, a reminder: the screenshot shows a 10x leverage position open, so leverage trading must be handled with caution. Don’t get wiped out by volatility before any rally even begins. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 9.16｜BTC dropped to around 76,000, and the real pressure isn't just from the Federal Reserve #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Today $BTC clearly weakened, the price has returned to around 76,000, once testing about 7,5800, moving further away from the previous 80,000 mark. The market is now worried not only about tonight's Federal Reserve decision, but also the US Senate's failure yesterday to advance the crypto market structure bill, which has clearly dampened sentiment.
What’s more notable is that the funding situation has also started to deteriorate.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day outflow of about $450 million, the largest since June, while the CB premium dropped to nearly a one-month low, indicating a clear weakening of domestic US buying.
Tonight there is also the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Currently, the market pricing for a 25bp rate hike has exceeded 90%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5%. So what really matters tonight is not "whether to hike," but whether hikes will continue afterward.
My thinking is simple:
Watch for support around 76,000 first, do not chase shorts.
If BTC can reclaim 77,000, there is a short-term chance to rebound to 79,000.
But if 75,000-75,500 cannot hold, the next downward space will reopen.
For a real strength shift on the upside, BTC needs to retake 80,000.
BTC’s biggest trouble now is not a single rate hike, but the combined pressure of regulatory headwinds, ETF outflows, and high interest rates.
If the Federal Reserve does not give a more dovish signal tonight,
76,000 may not be the end of this round of adjustment All good things must come to an end; OKX Boost's current airdrop model has ultimately come to an end
Just now, OKX Boost released two surprise airdrop announcements, but along with the announcements came that the participation threshold for Boost's airdrop was about to be changed
🔸 Current participation threshold: Whether you can claim the airdrop depends on your wallet balance, token trading volume, and stock trading volume
🔸 Subsequent participation threshold: Everyone can participate, trading designated tokens to accumulate trading volume. Rankings will be determined based on trading volume, and reaching the minimum threshold will grant airdrops
Simply put: after that, there will only be trade games, no airdrops 😂
When I specifically separated stock trading volume, I guessed it might be like the previous exchange-exclusive volume, and after a short while, it might not be used again. It seems it really came true, but unexpectedly, even the basic rules of the entire Boost airdrop were completely changed
But I want to complain about Boost's official rules. The reason you changed the rules was 'to make it easier for more users to participate in X Launch, reducing the uncertainty limit for each phase.' But it seems the trading competition mechanism hasn't reduced uncertainty either. Do you have any good methods? Hopefully, you'll prove me wrong 🤣 in the future
Plus, your wallet's transaction fees are so high—just running trading matches comes with a considerable cost, but the rewards don't seem to be as high as other companies
So if trading fees aren't lowered or rewards increased, honestly, I'm not very optimistic about this change 😅