Orbit Post Sitemap
The real cost of funding rate arbitrage is higher than you think
When you see the funding rate continuously positive, your first reaction is to short to earn the funding fee. Theoretically, it sounds great—long spot, short futures, and the funding fee is pure profit.
But in practice, you'll find the costs are higher than expected.
First, there are fees on both sides. Buying spot and opening futures positions both incur costs, and since the funding rate can flip at any time, if your holding period isn't long enough, the earned funding fee might not cover the opening and closing fees.
Second, slippage. Opening two positions simultaneously means two trades, each with slippage. When funding rates are extreme, volatility is usually at its peak, which amplifies slippage.
Finally, capital occupation. Both spot longs and futures margin occupy your capital simultaneously, so your actual annualized return will be much lower than the percentage shown by the funding rate.
Funding rate arbitrage is not impossible, but you need to precisely calculate all costs instead of just looking at the funding rate numbers.$TRUMP's capital momentum is still cooling down. About $480,000 was liquidated in 24 hours, with $420,000 long positions and $63,000 short positions; the largest single liquidation was only $24,000. Globally, 283 people were liquidated, and the market status is marked as "normal"—this indicates that leverage is no longer crowded, and it's not a concentrated liquidation but a quiet withdrawal of positions.
The price has fallen from $3.68 to $1.97, with the previous 7000% increase shrinking to 2000%, a 24-hour volatility of 5.66%, and trading volume under $100 million.
The narrative still has some warmth, but incremental funds have not taken over; the market seems to be shifting from emotion-driven to stock game.
The market is awaiting progress on the CLARITY Act: passing it could reignite expectations, while failure to pass would leave a lack of new pricing anchors.
In terms of impact, thinner liquidity will amplify the impact of large single orders; small amounts of capital can move prices and can also suddenly retract without news.
The risk is that the outcome of the act is unpredictable, and low-volume rebounds are prone to distortion; the cost zone in the past month may not be stable.
If trading volume rises above $100 million again and long-short liquidations return to balance, it can be considered a condition for capital inflow observation. Please make independent judgments and control your positions. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
The boot has finally dropped: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years. The rate hike itself was expected and already priced in by the market. What really sends chills down the spine is the dot plot—16 out of 18 participants expect at least one more hike before the end of 2026. What does this mean? It shows this is not a "one-off" adjustment but the start of a new tightening cycle! The phrase from Powell at the press conference, "inflation is too high and too persistent," firmly set a hawkish tone.
Interestingly, the reaction in the US stock market was sharp: the Dow dropped 600 points just before the close, with the S&P and Nasdaq plunging as well. Once the risk-free rate breaks above 5%, overvalued and high-beta assets are definitely the first to get hit. Moreover, the White House is publicly pressuring for rate cuts, directly opposing the Fed's hiking path—this drama is far from over.
But strangely, BTC rose slightly by 0.87%, and ETH even gained 1.84%. Despite the rate hike being negative news, the crypto market didn’t crash? My understanding is that the market had already fallen sharply in the previous days, sliding from 79,600 down to 74,955; panic sellers had already exited, so today’s move is a typical "sell the rumor, buy the news" rebound. Plus, the crypto market itself was oversold, so after the hike landed, funds dared to enter and buy the dip.
However, don’t be fooled by these one or two small green candles. If the tightening cycle truly restarts, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to surge, the tough times for risk assets are still ahead.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
Many people wonder: The Fed clearly raised rates by 25bp, so why didn’t the crypto market fall but instead rallied?
The core explanation in one sentence: The rate hike was already priced in by the market in advance, so it’s the boot dropping, the bad news is fully out.
1. Before the decision, the market had already priced in over 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike. The market had already dropped a few days earlier as funds digested this negative news.
2. The key is to look at the statements from the press conference: this is a one-time preventive rate hike, with no indication of starting a continuous rate hike cycle. What the market fears most is not this single hike, but continuous hikes afterward.
3. Short sellers took profits and bottom-fishing funds entered, causing a rebound, commonly known as short covering.
4. Additionally, panic from the failure of the CLARITY Act vote had already been released in advance. Two major macro negative factors landed at once, uncertainty disappeared, and risk assets rebounded.
⚠️ But note: this is only a short-term rebound and does not indicate a trend reversal.
If inflation rebounds again later and the Fed continues to hawkishly tighten, the market will come under pressure again at any time. High-leverage contracts must be handled carefully; rebounds are the easiest time for shorts to be liquidated and for longs to get trapped.
This is only a personal market review record and does not constitute any trading advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risk; please do not follow blindly. $BTC $ZEC What if $ZEC is still nowhere near its real potential? 👀
Back in 2017, $BCH reached around 30% of Bitcoin’s market cap, while $LTC touched roughly 8%—both riding the “better version of Bitcoin” narrative.
Today, $ZEC is sitting at just 1.6% of BTC’s market cap.
If it reaches even 15–20%, the math gets interesting:
At $100K BTC, that would put $ZEC around $15K–$20K.
Five-digit Zcash. 🖤
I’m saying this is a scenario the market may be underestimating.
#DailyOrbit 9月11日CPI出来后，黄金从4398回落，我之前写过"空仓观察，等站上EMA50 + 资金流转正"。对照国际金价（现货伦敦金）更新一下现在的状态。 ## 价格：回到4291，三线全跌破 今天（9-17）国际金价（现货伦敦金 XAUUSD）在 4291 美元/盎司附近。把均线拉出来：EMA20 在 4386、EMA50 在 4356、EMA200 在 4305——现价三条线全在下方。 和上周比，最大的变化是 EMA200 也跌破了。之前价格还站在年线（EMA200）上方、靠长线托着，现在三线空头排列，长线多头结构也松动了。今年区间 3919 到 5550，现处在约 23% 分位，离年初高位回撤约 23%。 ## 新变量：连长线都破了，更不能把反弹当反转 有意思的是另一面：价格跌回今年下四分位、连 EMA200 都跌破，说明盘面现在是全线偏弱，不是"长线稳、短线调"那种温和结构。 但这恰恰最容易骗人。越是"跌破所有均线"的走势，越不能看到一根阳线就当反转——短线没放量站回 EMA50、且资金流没转正，这种形态通常是下跌中继的存量博弈，不是新钱主动抄底。盘面没看到增量看多。 ## 资金流：CLARITY has fallen. 49:50, 11 votes short.
But Washington hasn't stopped.
Point 1: Let's look at the numbers first.
In the early hours of September 16, the Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY bill ended—49 in favor, 50 against. It takes 60 votes to invoke cloture and end debate, so it missed by a full 11 votes.
On Polymarket, the probability of CLARITY becoming law by the end of 2026 plummeted from over 30% a week ago to 5%. The total market trading volume was $18.75 million, all wiped out.
Bitcoin dropped more than 4% intraday, Coinbase fell 10%, Circle dropped over 11%. Coinbase became the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 that day.
The crypto industry's decade-long wait for a "big and comprehensive" regulatory framework died at the 60-vote threshold.
Point 2: But on the same day, two bills advanced smoothly in the House.
The House Ways and Means Committee passed H.R.10357, the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act, by 38 to 5.
The provisions are very specific: on-chain gas fees under $10 per transaction are exempt from tax (except for those with over 5,000 transfers in the previous year); wash sale rules extend to digital assets, but qualified USD stablecoins are exempt; qualified trusts can stake assets; digital asset lending is not considered a taxable sale.
However—mining and staking rewards are still taxed as ordinary income, taxable upon receipt with no deferral. If you stake and receive 100 SOL, and the coin price drops 80%, you still pay tax based on the price on the day you received it. The cash flow pressure on miners and stakers remains unresolved.
Point 3: The second bill is even tougher.
The House Financial Services Committee advanced H.R.8957, the American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA), by 28 to 21.
Core content: approximately 328,000 BTC held by the government will be locked for at least 20 years, during which they cannot be sold, auctioned, exchanged, or disposed of in any way. The Treasury must publish reserve certificates quarterly and undergo independent audits. Proceeds from sales can only be used for two purposes—either to increase Bitcoin reserves or to reduce national debt.
But note: the original goal of "purchasing 1 million BTC over 5 years" was removed. The bill became purely a "stock lock"—no new purchases, just preventing the government from dumping in the future.
No new sovereign buying. Only 328,000 BTC are "mechanically removed" from circulation.
Point 4: The real signal is here.
CLARITY’s path requires the Senate’s 60-vote threshold and bipartisan consensus. The tax law was drafted by Republicans, and all Democratic amendments were rejected. Among the 23 co-sponsors of the reserve bill, 22 are Republicans.
The House is bypassing the Senate’s 60-vote threshold by using "specialized legislation." Tax matters go to the Ways and Means Committee, reserves to the Financial Services Committee, each advancing with party majorities, passing as many as possible.
What the Senate can’t handle, the House breaks down and handles separately.
Point 5: In one sentence.
Don’t just stare at CLARITY’s coffin. Washington is telling you: if comprehensive regulation can’t be done, then first write into law "how taxes are collected" and "how coins are stored."
The former affects whether you need to calculate gains and losses for every gas fee when filing taxes next year. The latter determines whether the U.S. government’s 328,000 BTC will be dumped on the market someday in the future.
CLARITY is dead, but crypto legislation is not. It has just switched to a track better suited to the current political reality.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Lights off, lying down, phone lights up. $ZEC 1128.86 -> 1331.11 now 50x leverage, +895.54% 🔥 Brothers, you sleeping? Don't stare at the % only. A few days ago volume died, order book holding, just wouldn't drop. This wasn't gamble, it was waiting for the nod. To brothers who followed: Congrats. Take 50% profit, move SL to breakeven, let the rest run. Who missed? No FOMO. Wait for retest near 1250. If holds, then decide. Up next: Resistance 1350-1380. If fails, rest. If back below 1120, don't f#沙特管道修复预期压低油价
🚨 Saudi Oil Pipeline Restoration｜Oil Prices Weaken in Short Term
Saudi Arabia is accelerating repairs on the east-west oil pipeline damaged by a drone attack, with the market expecting partial operations to resume in the coming days.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is increasing crude oil shipments routed through Oman to ease market concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. In the latest trades, Brent crude fell to about $104.59/barrel, WTI around $101.29/barrel.
Core logic:
🛢️ Partial pipeline restoration → Reduced pressure on Saudi exports
🚢 Increased alternative transport via Oman → Short-term supply outlook improves
📉 Crude oil risk premium declines → Oil prices under pressure
⚠️ However, the pipeline is not fully restored yet, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain
My view:
The short-term crude trading logic has shifted from "supply disruption trade" to "supply restoration trade." If pipeline repairs continue faster than expected, oil prices will face further downward pressure; but if repairs are again delayed, oil prices may quickly reprice supply risks.
On BTC/U.S. stocks:
Oil price decline → Marginal relief in inflation pressure → Short-term positive for U.S. stock risk assets; if U.S. Treasury yields also fall, BTC's risk appetite environment may further improve.Long and Short Crowding List
$ONE Current rate is opposite to the total settled rate in the past 24 hours: current rate -1.0000%, at the 0th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total settled rate in the past 24 hours 6 times +0.187%; settling at the current rate, funding fees are paid by shorts to longs, which is opposite to the payment relationship reflected by the cumulative rate in the past 24 hours; price increased by 2.32%, position value changed by +11.01%.
$ZEC Negative rate is at a historical low among samples, shorts bear the settlement cost: current rate -0.0457%, at the 0th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total settled rate in the past 24 hours 3 times -0.052%; price increased by 0.18%, position value changed by +1.25%. Settling at the current rate, funding fees are paid by shorts to longs, and the negative rate magnitude is on the more extreme side of historical samples.
$SNDK Positive rate is at a historical high among samples, longs bear relatively high settlement costs: current rate +0.0400%, at the 96th percentile among the latest 100 single settlement samples; total settled rate in the past 24 hours 3 times +0.080%; price increased by 0.06%, position value changed by +0.35%. Settling at the current rate, funding fees are paid by longs to shorts, and the current rate is higher than most historical single settlement samples.
ONE, ZEC: Price increases coexist with shorts paying fees, shorts face both rising prices and funding cost.On September 16, the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee passed H.R.10357, the "Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act," with 38 votes in favor and 5 against. Both parties rarely stood together.
As soon as the news broke, insiders cheered.
"No tax on fees under $10!"
"Stablecoins get exemptions!"
"Trusts can now pledge assets!"
But don’t rush to celebrate. After reading through the 114-page bill, you’ll find the truly important clause was removed.
First, the good news, there is some.
One, on-chain fees under $10 per transaction are tax-exempt. From now on, when you transfer funds or pay gas, you don’t have to worry about whether or how to report that fee. But there’s a condition — people who made over 5,000 transfers last year don’t qualify.
In other words, this is for ordinary users, not for volume-trading studios.
Two, qualified U.S. dollar stablecoins enjoy wash sale rule exemptions. Stablecoin transfers become more flexible, and institutional market makers are no longer constrained.
Three, qualified trusts can pledge digital assets without affecting tax status. This is a real benefit for institutional staking products — previously, pledging through trusts could cause loss of tax qualification, but now that barrier is removed.
Together, these add up to the "certainty" in the bill’s title.
But the hidden landmine below is what really matters today.
The deferral provision for mining and staking rewards was deleted.
In June, Representative Mike Carey proposed the "Mining and Staking Tax Clarity Act," whose core was one clause: allowing miners and stakers to choose "tax upon sale, not upon receipt."
That clause was removed from the final version.
What does this mean?
If you mine 10 SOL today or receive 5 HYPE from staking — whether you sell or not, whether the price falls or not — at the moment you receive them, you must count their fair market value as income and pay tax.
You might say: then I’ll just sell them?
The problem is — many staking rewards have lock-up periods. You receive tokens but can’t move them. The tax bill arrives, but no cash does.
Cointelegraph quoted: "Without this provision, mining and staking rewards are still taxable upon receipt."
This is not theoretical. In 2022 and 2023, many miners received tax bills calculated at peak prices after the coin price crashed, holding coins that had dropped 80%, and still had to pay taxes.
History is repeating itself, but this time it’s the stakers’ turn.
The sting is yet to come.
Democratic Representative Lloyd Doggett proposed two amendments:
One required non-custodial and DeFi platforms to bear 1099 reporting obligations — rejected 12 to 28.
The other called for studying crypto mining’s impact on electricity and the environment — also rejected 16 to 25.
One demanded more transparency, the other research on impact. Both died.
Translation: what should be regulated wasn’t, what should be studied wasn’t.
The bill’s "worry" isn’t what it did wrong, but what it didn’t do.
It simplified small payments under $10 but didn’t touch miners’ and stakers’ most painful "tax upon receipt" issue. It gave stablecoins exemptions but didn’t provide cash flow relief for validators. It allowed trusts to pledge but didn’t allow individuals to defer.
Senator Steven Horsford himself said at the hearing: "This bill is not as comprehensive as I hoped; Congress needs to resolve when mining and staking rewards should be recognized as income."
Even those who voted yes admit the core problem remains unsolved.
In summary: it simplified your small payments but didn’t solve your cash flow dilemma of "tax upon receipt."
Miners and stakers are not winners today. They are the "compromised" side.
The bill still needs to pass the full House, the Senate, and be signed by the President. The House is in recess until after the midterm elections this week, and the schedule is not yet set.
But the tax law direction is clear: every token you receive is taxable income — whether you sell it or not.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 On September 16, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee passed the "American Reserve Modernization Act" (ARMA) with a vote of 28 to 21.
At first glance, this seems like an ordinary legislative advancement. But behind the numbers lies a key fact—
Of the 23 co-sponsors, 22 are Republicans and 1 is a Democrat.
The sole Democrat, Representative Jared Golden from Maine, is not even a member of the Financial Services Committee.
Cross-referencing the co-sponsor list with the committee roster reveals:
Among the 23 Democrats on the committee, there was zero support.
Not a single one co-sponsored or voted in favor.
A year ago, the situation was completely different.
In July 2025, the CLARITY Act passed the House with a vote of 294 to 134, with 78 Democrats voting yes. In the Financial Services Committee, CLARITY passed bipartisanly at 32 to 19.
Back then, crypto legislation was a bipartisan affair. Republicans pushed, Democrats followed, and those 78 Democratic votes were the best proof.
One year later, the same group has turned against it.
Crypto policy analyst Diana Chen pinpointed the key:
"Regulating how Bitcoin is traded is a consumer protection issue; putting it on the federal balance sheet is a fiscal and monetary policy issue—the alliance starts to loosen there."
In plain terms: We can talk about how coins are traded. But putting taxpayers' money into Bitcoin? No way.
Maxine Waters put it even more bluntly.
The Democratic leader of the Financial Services Committee and California Representative Waters has previously clearly opposed Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order.
Her core logic is: Strategic reserves are usually used to support key goods for the U.S. economy and everyday family life. Cryptocurrency itself has no intrinsic value and does not belong in this category.
Waters also warned that this reserve could benefit Trump's close allies.
This is the underlying logic behind the Democrats' collective silence—not a lack of understanding of crypto, but distrust of linking the national balance sheet with crypto.
Looking at the practical side, ARMA itself is in a tough spot.
The bill requires the government to lock approximately 324,000 Bitcoins for at least 20 years, valued at about $26 billion.
But with Republicans holding a 30 to 23 majority in the Financial Services Committee, ARMA can pass without any Democratic votes.
It can pass the House. What about the Senate?
The corresponding Senate bill has not yet passed, and prediction markets estimate only a 6% chance that ARMA will become law before 2027.
CLARITY was just rejected in the Senate by 49 to 50, and the window for crypto legislation is closing.
The most dangerous aspect of this is not the bill itself.
It’s that the Bitcoin reserve is becoming a Republican party platform.
Consider the consequences:
If ARMA passes along purely partisan lines, future Democratic administrations will not repeal it—it's codified law, and repeal costs are too high.
But they also won’t expand it.
A "national strategic asset" will be labeled Republican and then cold-shouldered by the next administration.
This is not a victory for Bitcoin.
This is the beginning of Bitcoin being politically hijacked.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 The Federal Reserve's rate hike puts the People's Bank of China in a dilemma again
The Federal Reserve raised rates as expected.
Actually, over the past few years, the actual interest rate in the U.S. has paid less attention to the federal funds rate and more to the yields of 2-year and 1-year U.S. Treasury bonds. Recently, the 2-year Treasury yield surged to 4.7%, and it only dropped a bit after the announcement last night.
But the pressure is very real for China. The interest rate spread has widened again, China's exports are strong, a huge amount of money is held overseas, and there is significant capital outflow pressure. It can only be barely contained by RMB appreciation and administrative controls.
If the U.S. eases monetary policy in the next year or two, that would be fine, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has also broken 5%, indicating that long-term pricing is not based on next year's CPI, and the neutral interest rate will continue to rise.
This makes things even more complicated for China. If the U.S. cuts rates, the spread narrows, and the massive surplus returns—will you tighten liquidity? If the U.S. does not cut and maintains a high interest rate environment, how long can China's barriers hold? Japan and Europe are raising rates; will you follow?
Currently, a large amount of state-owned capital in China is being invested in equity, and the money is borrowed from banks. Borrowing to invest in stocks is a big taboo in finance! The reality is that in some places, enterprises making grand investments look impressive on the surface, but dividends are thin, shares cannot be sold, and funding costs are suffocating. Dare to raise rates? This is even riskier than smashing real estate or infrastructure investment.The most unusual detail in today's market is that despite $MSTRB only slightly rising 0.26% in 24 hours, the funding rate has been pushed close to zero, with neither longs nor shorts willing to pay the other side — this "funding rate grounded + price sticking" structure usually indicates that leveraged funds are waiting for a directional trigger rather than profiting passively from a trend.
Breaking down the funding positions: $MSTRB current price is 128.96, MA5=128.312 has crossed above MA20=127.764, MACD histogram +0.3614 maintains a bullish stance, RSI at 53.9 is in a neutral to slightly strong zone, Bollinger Bands are narrowing at [124.499, 131.029]. The price is moving along the middle band upwards with tightening bandwidth, a typical sign of an impending breakout. The trading volume of 10.4M USDT is not large, indicating this is not a strong push by major players but rather retail investors and market makers probing each other within a narrow range. The Fear and Greed Index is 50, showing neutral sentiment, with no panic selling creating a golden pit nor greedy chasing driving a rally; longs and shorts are in a stalemate.
My bias is bullish: the moving averages are aligned bullishly + MACD is positive + funding rate has no premium, indicating long positions have low cost and are not crowded yet. Once volume breaks above the upper Bollinger Band at 131.029, short covering will accelerate.Position midday update, the market continues to fluctuate
✅$HYPE long position｜full 20x
Unrealized profit +836.70U, return rate +140.37%
Entry price 73.897, current price 79.475, profit continues to expand.
But the margin ratio is only 4.92%, cannot be taken lightly, monitor the market at any time to prevent profit retracement.
❌ $BICO long position｜full 8x
Unrealized loss -1615.69U, return rate -675.77%
After a slight rebound, the loss has slightly narrowed, but still deeply trapped, margin ratio 4.92%, liquidation risk looming.
From smart money data, large capital shorts dominate, holding against the trend, position pressure is very high.
💡Midday thoughts:
Holding both profitable and deeply trapped counter-trend positions at the same time is mentally exhausting. The profitable positions are held with peace of mind, but the trapped positions torment the mindset with every market fluctuation. No matter how much profit, carrying a heavy counter-trend position keeps the account in a high-risk state.
I want to ask fellow traders: In this situation, should you first secure the profits already made, or prioritize freeing the trapped positions?
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进
#CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 $TRUMP - My Read, No Hype Leverage is flushed. 24h total liq is only $480K. Longs $420K vs Shorts $63K. Biggest single liq $24K. 283 traders out. Market status: Normal. What changed? No crowded leverage now. Just quiet exits. Price pulled from $3.68 to $1.97. That insane 7000% run is now back to 2000%. Volatility 5.66%, volume under $100M. Story still hot, but fresh money is not following. We moved from emotion to grind. Next catalyst is CLARITY Act. Pass = new fuel. Fail = no anchor, drift loweA reminder in advance for those still immersed in the "FOMC is over" atmosphere: this week's storm has only just begun.
During this super central bank week, the Fed was just the opening shot — next up are the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. In the UK, rising oil and gas prices are keeping inflation pressured, so it's highly likely they will hold steady but maintain a hawkish stance; every move by the Bank of Japan is even more tightly linked to global carry trades, and any slight disturbance will transmit volatility through exchange rates back to risk assets.
In trading, there's one rule: the busier the news week, the less you should act and the lighter your positions should be. Don't relax and go all-in on $BTC just because you survived one FOMC; what really blows you up is often the one you thought was behind you but suddenly explodes in the middle of the night.Timestamp｜2026.09.17 11:34 (Beijing Time) The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the rate to 3.75%—4.00%; 16 policymakers expect at least one more rate hike this year, and the dollar rose to a seven-week high. This is a clear hawkish negative. Federal Reserve statement｜Reuters interpretation But the market's response is: $BTC holds above 75,055, currently around $76,473, just about 0.4% below the 24-hour high of 76,775; $ETH holds above 2,369, currently around $2,434, also close to the 24-hour high of 2,445; $ETH/BTC stops weakening further, and ETH begins a slight catch-up rally. BTC real-time data｜ETH real-time data This is why the opportunity arises: It's not that the news suddenly turned bullish, but after the heavy bearish news landed, the bears still failed to push the price to new lows. When the narrative is extremely pessimistic but the price refuses to fall, the market's underlying strength is often already starting to shift. My attack plan: BTC's 15-minute candlestick must effectively break above 76,775, ETH simultaneously breaks above 2,445, then wait for a 5-minute pullback without breaking below, and attempt the first long position. If BTC pulls back near 75,900 and ETH near 2,410 forming higher lows, this also represents a low-risk entry window. If BTC falls below 75,055 and ETH below 2,369, and the rebound fails to recover, immediately acknowledge the structure has failed. The one-minute chart is only responsible for confirming.Finally got this Marvell trade back. Bought long at 228.14, fully closed at 234.92, single contract return +145.01%. A couple of days ago it was still getting hit around 220, floating loss of over 100 points was really tough, but in the end, it still reached the original target near 235 😅
The reason I dared to hold on then was mainly because I still believed the AI data center logic for this round hadn’t broken. In the most recent quarter, Marvell’s revenue hit a record high, up 37% year-over-year, with data center business growing 46%, so it’s not just market hype.
More importantly, there’s the custom AI chip collaboration with Google. According to Reuters, if this cooperation gradually materializes, the potential chip sales scale could reach up to $120 billion. Of course, this isn’t money arriving immediately, but for a company like Marvell that makes custom chips and high-speed interconnects, it definitely adds growth potential for the future.
So when it dropped below 220, I didn’t immediately abandon the logic, just bought a bit early. Now the price has pulled back to 234.92, just shy of the original 235 target, so I decided to close the position.
When it was losing before, I thought “just get back to cost,” but once it really rose back, it’s easy to think I could hold longer. At this point, I need to stick to the original plan. This trade is enough, any further rise will be for the next one. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 After last night's Federal Reserve meeting, the rate hike was implemented. Why didn't the market crash? The reason is actually quite simple: the market had already anticipated the rate hike before it happened. Everyone had mostly digested the expectation of this rate hike. Of course, many people were still watching and only took action at the moment the rate hike was implemented. This is why there was still some market volatility at that moment. But honestly, that volatility was much smaller than before. From the trading volume, you can see that both bulls and bears fought fiercely at that time point. Bulls believed that the bad news was actually good news, while bears thought the rate hike and the expectation of another hike next quarter still existed, which caused the trading volume to be so large. Regarding my personal operations, I think there are many lessons to be learned from the important news release and BTC's price movement before and after it: 1. For Bitcoin, before the rate hike was implemented, there was no certain rebound trend; all rebounds were fakeouts. This caused me to suffer losses yesterday and wear down a lot of principal, so I need to be more careful next time. 2. For gold, it's the same principle as Bitcoin. Although yesterday there was a clear trend of gold strengthening, after the rate hike was implemented, it was all pushed back to its original state. So next time, I must pay attention: for such major news, wait for the confirmed news release before deciding the direction, rather than arbitrarily chasing highs before the news is finalized. 3. Including yesterday and up to now, I have been telling myself that since the big direction is to go long, then look for long opportunities, and going long mustUS Crypto Tax and BTC Reserve Bills Advance
Two US crypto bills have moved forward.
Bitcoin Reserve Bill: Treats government-confiscated Bitcoin as reserves, to be held for at least 20 years without being casually sold. The government will not use funds to buy coins on the secondary market.
This is beneficial for BTC in the long term, with a likely 2-4% short-term price increase that may retreat after the positive effect is realized.
New tax regulations close loopholes on transaction tax evasion; frequent short-term trading costs will increase, causing short-term capital to contract somewhat, with slight short-term selling pressure. Small transfers are exempt from tax fees.
The bills have only passed preliminary approval and still have a long way to go before implementation.
In the long run, as the US gradually sets crypto rules, institutional capital entry will become more convenient. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Over the past 12 hours, ZEC liquidations have reached: 🐂 Longs liquidated: $5.07M 🐻 Shorts liquidated: $42.82M That’s a massive imbalance—shorts are getting squeezed hard. Last night, ZEC barely reacted to the rate-hike announcement and instead pushed to a fresh high of $1,398.99. It has since pulled back to around $1,307.35, but to me, this looks more like consolidation before the next potential push rather than a breakdown. The key levels are now clear: 🎯 $1,450 — next major test 🔥 $1,500 Here's an additional insight beyond the crypto circle but applicable as a mindset: memory prices have surged five to seven times this year, and Intel's CEO has directly warned that shortages will be even worse next year, with the storage chip shortage expected to drag on until 2027. Sounds particularly "certain," doesn't it?
The more everyone understands this kind of certainty narrative, the more it becomes a hotspot for catching falling knives. Just because the logic is sound doesn't mean prices haven't been overextended—when everyone is shouting about shortages and price hikes, the chips have often already been pushed to a high level, and what you catch is others cashing in their profits.
The same applies to $BTC: no matter how strong the narrative, you still have to ask, "At this price, is the odds still in my favor?" Understanding the trend and buying at a good price are two different things. Don't let "I saw it coming early" end up as "I bought at the highest point."What does it mean to be liquidated 500 times? On average, more than once a day. But Brother Maji not only didn't quit, he went all in again.
This time, three positions: BTC 40x full position long, entry at 77871, liquidation line at 62241; ETH 25x full position long, entry at 2463, liquidation line at 2357; HYPE 10x full position long, liquidation line at 42.37.
All chasing the rebound at high points. Millions in unrealized profits look dazzling, but don't forget—40x leverage means that a single spike or a FOMC black swan event doesn't even need to hit the liquidation line; a mid-way shakeout can shatter your mindset.
BTC seems to have a 20,000-point safety cushion, but with 40x leverage's destructive power, it's normal for unrealized profits and added position gains to be given back.
ETH opened above the 2460 resistance zone, with the liquidation line at 2357 not far below; 25x full position means the margin for error is basically zero.
HYPE is even harsher; altcoin volatility is already wild, 10x leverage looks mild, but a sudden, unprovoked dump can wipe out the buffer instantly.
500 liquidations didn't drive him away, what will happen at the 501st?
The market never lacks courage, it lacks survival.9.17 $ZEC ZEC: Under strong momentum, I choose to wait
The last small bearish candle, a slight drop of 0.04%.
Like a feather falling on the water surface, no ripples arise, yet it hides countless words.
Looking at the structure, everything is lining up for the bulls:
Short-term moving averages above, long-term moving averages below, neatly pushing upward with strict discipline;
Bollinger Bands widening continuously, price sliding along the upper band — a textbook strong bullish pattern.
But many ask me: Can I buy now?
My answer is: wait.
Strong momentum does not mean blindly chasing the high.
Price running along the upper band, deviating too far from moving average support; entering now, stop loss placement is uncertain, and risk-reward ratio is unfavorable.
True opportunities never come at the peak of the rise, but at the moment of pullback stabilization and signal confirmation.
The market is always there, it never closes.
Follow the trend, enforce strict risk control, wait patiently, and execute decisively #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #CLARITY法案投票受阻引争议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🔥 $XRP / $SOL / $ADA | THREE DIFFERENT ENGINES
$XRP → Institutional access
$SOL → On-chain execution
$ADA → Decentralized infrastructure
$XRP leans on capital integration.
$SOL leans on usage and liquidity.
$ADA leans on decentralization and long-term development.
Three different engines.
When liquidity returns, which one turns adoption into lasting demand?
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 $SOL ▍🟢 SOL Quick Report: 96 held, rebound first targets 100
Current price 97-99, up 2% from the 96 low in 24h. After the rate hike was implemented, funds flowed back into high-beta coins, with SOL's rebound stronger than BTC (+2% vs +0.9%). However, it's still down 6% over 7 days, and the weekly high of 105.7 hasn't been reached yet.
▍📍 Market Overview
Support at 97.5 holds short-term, with a stronger bottom at 87.6 below. The 100-101 range is a dense chip area, and 106.95 is the real breakout level. Alpenglow upgrade (confirmation time cut to 150 milliseconds) is coming in October, fundamentals still in hand.
▍🎯 Trading Plan
Entry: Buy first tier at 96-97; conservatively wait for 87-90; chase only if volume breaks above 101.
Targets: 101 → 106.95, and after holding, look to 114.67.
Stop loss: Unconditionally exit if daily close falls below 95.7, next support at 87.6.
▍⚠️ The rebound is an oversold correction, not a reversal. Another rate decision on October 27, so don't fully load your position.
Not investment advice, trade at your own risk Day sixteen, a single-day loss of ¥18,049.15. The account's cumulative profit and loss dropped to -¥18,049. Yesterday's wound hasn't healed, and today it got cut again. $BTC $ETH
On September 16, the cryptocurrency market faced a double nuclear blast from policy and macro factors.
First nuclear bomb: The bill failed. The U.S. Senate rejected the procedural vote on the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" with 50 votes in favor and 49 against, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold. This bill was supposed to grant the CFTC regulatory authority over digital assets and establish a clearer federal regulatory framework for the industry. Hundreds of millions of dollars in lobbying funds went to waste. Bitcoin dropped over 3% below ¥76,000, and Ethereum fell below ¥2,400, both hitting their lowest since June.
Second nuclear bomb: Federal Reserve rate hike. On the same day, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023, passed unanimously with 12 votes. The dot plot raised the median rate forecast for 2026 from 3.8% to 4.1%, indicating there might still be room for one more hike this year. The statement bluntly said "inflation remains elevated," and Fed Chair Powell did not preview the next move after the meeting, telling the market to watch the data.
Third nuclear bomb: Liquidation stampede. Nearly 120,000 liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, totaling $670 million, with long positions liquidated at $570 million. Ethereum led with $302 million in liquidations, followed by Bitcoin at $247 million.
And I am one of those 120,000.
¥18,049 is the second-largest single-day loss in sixteen days. Why did I lose again? Because I heavily went long before the FOMC decision, betting that "the rate hike being priced in would be the worst of the bad news." But the dot plot showed another hike this year, and Powell didn’t soften his stance—"the bad news just started" instead of "the bad news is over."
Sixteen days have passed. The account went from -¥8,487 to +¥43,281, from -¥39,300 to +¥4,894, and now to -¥18,049. Spot profits remain a cold ¥0.00—because I never truly held a single Bitcoin or Ethereum. I have always been at the contract gambling table, betting on things beyond my control: Senate votes, Fed dot plots, Iran’s stance. Contracts amplify profits but also magnify my ignorance and greed. Tonight’s lesson hurts more than any before—facing the central bank’s super week, any bet on "the bad news is over" is self-deception.[Sniffing] Trump angrily lashes out at rate hikes: interest rate must be ≤1%, don't trade based on slogans
Fact: FOMC has raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%; Trump publicly opposes and demands rates be lowered to 1% or below, trending simultaneously on Chinese hot searches. BTC around 76464 (+0.8%), F&G 50 — prices have not moved in sync with political noise.
Judgment: slogans ≠ policy shift. Pricing still reflects Warsh's "higher for longer," don't mistake Twitter governance for actual easing.
Vote: watch dot plot data / volatility will rise / follow the market, not Twitter$PONS has already demonstrated its explosive power:
Around September 3rd, daily fees approached $6M, with about 80% of revenue used for buybacks; at that time, over 28% of the supply had been burned.
But there is one data point I find more alarming:
Robinhood Chain's average daily active accounts that week were about 396,000, actually lower than the previous week.
In other words:
A surge in revenue does not necessarily mean a simultaneous surge in users.
So from now on, I will no longer just screenshot "daily revenue hitting new highs."
I want to see:
User count, fee per user, number of launches, trading volume, and whether buyback/burn can be maintained together.
Peak revenue proves explosive power.
Sustained revenue determines valuation. $PONS Core‑BTCFi（比特币金融） BTCFi就是Core整套叙事：把沉睡的BTC释放流动性，做比特币原生DeFi，依靠Satoshi‑Plus混合共识，继承比特币算力安全，同时拥有EVM智能合约能力 。 整套体系主要几块：BTC非托管质押、流动质押LstBTC、借贷Colend、支付SatPay、BTC原生DEX/衍生品。 ✅BTCFi亮点（看多逻辑） 1. 非托管BTC质押是最大卖点 利用比特币CLTV时间锁，用户BTC不用转给第三方托管，BTC还在比特币链上锁定，就可以参与Core网络质押拿CORE奖励，区别于WBTC/cBTC这类托管封装BTC。 推出LstBTC流动质押凭证，质押BTC之后拿到链上凭证，可以继续去DeFi做借贷、交易，解决质押锁仓失去流动性的痛点。 2. 安全叙事：借用比特币大量算力做网络共识，主打“比特币级安全的DeFi”，EVM兼容，普通EVM开发者可以迁移过来做BTCFi应用 。 3. 产品蓝图完整：质押‑借贷‑交易‑现实支付（SatPay借记卡），希望形成闭环；官方希望通过手续费、借贷利息收入，用来回购CORE，构建代币飞轮。 4. 赛道红BlackRock came out today to cool down the market, saying that people might be overinterpreting the Fed Chair's hawkish remarks — the reason being that a new chair needs to establish credibility through toughness, and with the economy this strong, rate hikes may not necessarily be bad for risk assets.
This statement is half true and half a placebo. The truth is: the wording from a single post-meeting press conference does not equal a sustained rate hike cycle, so don't treat a harsh comment as doomsday. The false part is: when a new chair has to establish credibility by being "hawkish," he is even less likely to turn dovish easily — which precisely means the ceiling above is firm.
So my interpretation is: don't panic, but also don't be lulled back into going all-in by "expert reassurances." What $BTC needs now is not an interpretation, but a price that can hold steady. Until then, I'd rather watch the show.#ZEC breaks into the top ten, institutionalization process accelerates
BTC is falling, but #$ZEC ZEC is rising: this time it's not just a simple catch-up
Today I saw many friends shorting zec, how dare they!
The recent strength of ZEC, I think the core is two words: capital.
On August 25, Grayscale's Zcash ETF (ZCSH) launched, and in two weeks the asset size has exceeded $500 million, holding over 550,000 ZEC, which accounts for about 3% of the circulating supply. More importantly, excluding related party funds, the actual net market inflow has exceeded $70 million.
Looking at the price, ZEC quickly broke through $1,000 from the end of August to early September, with a 30-day increase once exceeding 100%.
I tend to interpret this wave as:
ETF capital enters → circulating supply is continuously absorbed → privacy narrative heats up → shorts are forced to stop loss → gains further amplify.
Moreover, ZEC's total supply cap is only 21 million, with about 16.9 million currently circulating, and new supply about 1,514 per day. In contrast, the chips absorbed by the ETF in two weeks are clearly not small.
So what really matters for ZEC now is not how many points it rises in a day.
But whether ETF capital can continue to flow in.
As long as capital keeps coming, ZEC's strong logic remains; once capital cools significantly, high-level volatility will also be very large.
This may be the most noteworthy aspect of this round of ZEC's counter-trend rise. $ZEC #$BTC Column integrates USDC/USDT into the banking core: fiat conversion available even on weekends
Receive a USDC transfer at 9 PM on Saturday, and the next second it can be sent via RTP to any US bank account—Column officially included this scenario in their product description.
What it does is straightforward: stablecoin addresses and bank accounts share the same core ledger, enabling 24/7 instant conversion between USDC/USDT and fiat without needing to preload funds or wait for Monday's wire transfer window. Both Solana and Ethereum can send and receive, and later it will support SWIFT, ACH, checks, and even use stablecoin balances for Visa/Mastercard settlements.
This is not just another "one-click exchange" button in a retail wallet. You must first become a Column banking client or a developer partner; compliance and account thresholds are the gatekeepers. Only those who can connect to this track truly avoid weekend queues.After the rate-hike announcement, the market should have logically taken a serious hit. But $BTC and $ETH are holding surprisingly strong. There are simply too many buyers stepping in. Think about it: the CLARITY bill failed, the Fed still delivered a rate hike, and yet we haven’t seen a black-swan event or a major breakdown in Bitcoin or Ethereum. That’s the part that really catches my attention. The market has absorbed wave after wave of bad news—and it’s still refusing to collapse. So maybe t$TRUMP - Leverage Reset Done
- 24h Liq: $480K only [Longs $420K / Shorts $63K]
- Biggest liq just $24K, 283 traders
- No more crowded longs = clean slate
Price $1.97 after top $3.68
Volume below $100M, vol 5.66%
Smart money waiting for CLARITY Act.
No bill = no new fuel.
Thin books = easy to move price up/down fast.
Don't chase low vol bounce.
I wait for $100M+ volume to confirm entry.
$TRUMP$BTC $ETH The current market looks all green, but BTC and ETH have both risen moderately today, mostly reflecting sentiment recovery after the interest rate hike. On the other hand, altcoins are making bigger moves. Here are some key reference points:
$ZEC is currently around 1230-1250, having once surged to the historical high of 1385 today. The daily RSI has already entered the overbought zone. On the upside, watch 1275 first; only a volume breakout there gives a chance to test 1350-1385 again. On the downside, key support is at 1213-1225; if broken, look down to the 1077-1109 gap area. Chasing highs is not cost-effective; waiting for a pullback confirmation is safer.
$UNI is currently at 6.1-6.2, showing sluggish movement. The short-term resistance zone is 6.28-6.38, where concentrated short liquidations occur. Only a volume breakout here offers a chance to reach 6.74. On the downside, 6.00 is critical; if it doesn't hold, expect a retreat to 5.87-5.75.
$USELESS is pure meme, with huge volatility. The day before yesterday it dropped from 0.34 to around 0.20, now hovering around 0.22. The lifeline support is at 0.204-0.205; holding this is necessary for a rebound. On the upside, 0.25-0.26 is strong resistance, and beyond that is the previous high at 0.4375. Don't heavily invest in this coin; just watch the show until signals emerge.On September 16, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee passed the "American Reserve Modernization Act" with 28 votes in favor and 21 against.
On the surface, this marks a milestone where the "strategic Bitcoin reserve" is upgraded from a Trump executive order to federal law.
But flipping to the bill’s text—the previous clause about "purchasing 1 million BTC over five years" was completely removed.
Instead: the government’s existing approximately 324,000 BTC (worth about $24.7 billion) will be locked for at least 20 years, with no selling, no swapping, and no pledging allowed.
On Polymarket, the probability of this bill becoming law before 2027 is only about 6%.
Think about it carefully.
First, the "bullish" logic.
The 320,000 BTC held by the government has long been seen by the market as a ticking time bomb hanging overhead—what if the U.S. government needs money one day and dumps it? Even the Mt. Gox compensation made the market tremble; this is 320,000 BTC.
Now the bill says: no selling for 20 years. The bomb’s fuse is pulled.
More importantly, an executive order can be overturned by the next president, but a statute cannot. Trump’s BTC has become America’s BTC. Any future president wanting to sell must first get Congress’s approval.
Sounds great.
But don’t celebrate too soon.
The "placebo" skeptics’ doubts are even more piercing.
First, no new buying. The government won’t buy a single new coin. The expected "sovereign nation entering to buy up" turns into "locking already confiscated coins in a safe."
Second, compared to the 2024 BITCOIN Act—which originally envisioned the government buying 1 million BTC over five years, a true demand-side nuclear bomb—ARMA doesn’t buy a single coin, downgrading expectations from "rocket fuel" to "safety net."
Third, politically, they haven’t even secured their own party’s support. Among 23 Democratic committee members, zero co-sponsored this bill.
Independent Representative Bill Foster blasted during the review: "I don’t think anyone believes Bitcoin is critical to the U.S. economy."
He said Bitcoin is too risky and volatile, totally unsuitable as a national reserve.
Harsh words, but can you refute them?
So back to the soul question: what is ARMA really worth?
Just look at the market.
The Fed raised interest rates, Bitcoin dropped to $75,355, down nearly 4% this week.
The CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, short-term holders moved 33,100 BTC to exchanges, with 23,200 BTC at a loss, triggering stop-loss selling.
BTC struggles between $75,000 and $77,000.
The good news from ARMA’s passage? The market barely reacted.
Because traders know better than anyone: the good news was priced in early, and it’s priced as a "small positive."
In summary:
The real value of ARMA is not "America is going to buy Bitcoin," but "America promises not to sell Bitcoin."
The former is rocket fuel; the latter is just a safety net.
Rocket fuel can push BTC to $100,000. The safety net only ensures it doesn’t fall into the abyss.
Do you want to get rich quick or just have a safety cushion?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Closing review, first highlight: Opening this card, my account still holds no $BTC — after the FOMC move, with the rate hike implemented and the dot plot hawkish, I didn’t chase a single candle.
Some are anxious asking why I haven’t entered the market yet. The most valuable discipline at the table is simple: good positions don’t come every hand. The price at the moment the boot drops is driven by emotion, not trend. I’m waiting for a true directional move on the 4-hour chart, a confirmation after fully digesting this "buy the rumor, sell the fact" wave, not for tonight’s calls or screenshots.
Being out of the market doesn’t mean I have no view; it means I don’t want to run naked all night on the hawkish landing night. Real opportunities don’t just appear for a second; when you wake up, they’re still there. Are you watching empty-handed, or have you already rushed in?The person shorting $ZEC closed their long position and immediately opened a short, 767 coins, 1 million, then got liquidated.
My first reaction after watching was not sympathy, but laughter.
Not laughing at their loss, but at the timing of this operation. They just closed the long, then turned around to short—how much time passed in between? This kind of "I don't accept it" flip-flop is all too familiar to veteran traders—not because they saw a signal, but because emotions took over.
With a 1 million position, how far can the liquidation price be? With $ZEC's volatility, a single spike is enough.
The real question is: when they closed the long, did they truly think it was the top, or were they just shaken out? If it's the latter, then this short was never a trade from the start, but a tantrum.
Have you ever had that experience where you just cut your losses and immediately reversed, only to get hit on both sides?
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $ZEC When I was learning to drive,
Coach Lao Zhou was in his fifties,
had a bad temper but wasn't a bad person.
There was a phone holder on the car.
While waiting for students to practice parking in reverse,
he would swipe twice.
Once I asked him what he was looking at.
He said he was watching the numbers,
red and green.
I asked if he was into crypto too.
He said he was just messing around.
One of the students was a programmer,
and chatted with him all the way.
He remembered three names:
$TON, he said sounds like "ton,"
meaning heavy.
$SUI, he said sounds like "water,"
meaning good liquidity.
Actually, he didn't really understand it either.
$ARB, he said sounds like "Arab,"
sounds rich.
Each bought a few hundred.
After buying, he kept pressing the clutch,
cursing,
hitting the steering wheel,
watching the price points.
After two months,
I got my license.
I asked him if he made money.
He said he didn't know,
didn't check.
He went home and asked his son to check.
His son said one went up, one went down, one stayed flat.
Lao Zhou said that's okay,
not all up or down.
He said this thing is like learning to drive,
rushing doesn't help.
Slamming the gas can cause crashes.
Brake when you should brake.
Wait when you should wait.
Go when you should go.
I asked if he would buy more in the future.
He said it depends.
If there's spare money, just throw some in.
If there's a lot, don't touch it.
His wife manages the money.
He only has a few hundred in his pocket.
If he loses, he treats it like smoking.
If he wins, he buys drinks for the students.
He said don't always think about hitting it big in one go.
Some people do,
but not many.
Most people have to retake the test.
Retaking isn't shameful.
What’s shameful is borrowing money to pay for the retake.
After hearing this, I thought it made sense.
Later, passing by the driving school,
I saw him still sitting in the passenger seat.
The phone screen was on.
His expression didn't change much.
Red and green didn't matter to him.
He only watched if the students crossed the line.
If they crossed, they got scolded.
Life is the same.
If the line is crossed crookedly, it can be fixed.
If the money is all lost, it's hard to fix.Just came across a pretty crucial piece of news:
Kraken's parent company Payward plans to bring permissioned perpetual contracts based on Hyperliquid HIP-3 to U.S. users.
Here's the key point:
It's not about letting U.S. users directly access Hyperliquid, but rather going through a "compliance shell."
Bitnomial is responsible for deployment, creation, and clearing;
NinjaTrader Clearing handles customer accounts;
Users must pass a two-way whitelist;
The underlying trading uses Hyperliquid's on-chain order book.
And it's not finalized yet; regulatory approval is still pending.
But this structure is very interesting.
Because it actually solves a core problem:
Can Hyperliquid's on-chain trading experience connect with the compliant financial infrastructure in the U.S.?
If ultimately approved, the significance might be more than just adding another trading entry point.
It means a real connection is starting to form between on-chain order books, perpetual contracts, and traditional regulatory systems.
More importantly, Hyperliquid might not need to open the entire U.S. market directly but can allow different institutions to deploy their own trading markets under a compliant framework through the HIP-3 permissioned market.
This is a long-term narrative for $HYPE that deserves more attention than simply adding another trading pair. Stablecoin spending for a year, what does my bill look like?
I started seriously using the U Card for spending at the end of last year, and now it's been almost a year. Recently, I pulled up my bill and found some interesting things.
The category with the largest spending amount is overseas subscriptions and SaaS tools, accounting for almost 40%. The second is cross-border e-commerce, about 30%. The rest are travel, dining, and small daily expenses.
What surprised me the most is that the proportion of small expenses is much higher than I expected. At first, I thought the U Card was suitable for large transfers, but it turned out that subscriptions costing tens of yuan and tools costing tens of US dollars were used the most.
The biggest gain this year is not how much money I saved, but that the spending process became simpler. No need to exchange currency in advance, no need to wait for bank approval, no need to worry about exchange rate fluctuations, just charge USDT and you can spend.
The same-name withdrawal also helped me develop a good habit—the on-chain spending records are very clear, making monthly reviews very convenient.The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by +25bp to 3.75%–4.00% last night (unanimous vote). About $117 million was liquidated in the first hour, with shorts accounting for about 77% (around $90 million), and open interest dropped by about −1.49%. The dot plot's median expectation for the end of 2026 was raised to 4.25%.
The benchmark interest rate was increased by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, passed unanimously.
Bitcoin's price didn't really spike, hovering around $76,000. But there was significant movement on the contracts side: within an hour after the decision, about $117 million worth of positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with shorts making up about 77%, approximately $90 million. Meanwhile, open interest fell by about 1.5%.
The initial move seemed more like shorts betting on "another rate hike crash" being squeezed out, not necessarily a sudden influx of spot funds.
In the dot plot, officials raised the median expectation for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 to 4.25%, leaving room for another hike. Inflation expectations were also slightly revised upward.
Many are watching the price tonight. I want to focus on two things first: whether spot trading volume keeps up, and whether ETFs continue to see net outflows in the coming days. $BTC My $BTC exposure remains light—not because I don’t have a view, but because I’m not betting against the first candle. The most frustrating part of binary events is what happens the moment the cards are revealed. Everyone rushes to pick a side: Is it time to buy the dip after all the bad news is out? Or does the hawkish stance mean it’s time to short the market? After years of playing this game, there’s one thing I trust: let the market fully express its emotions first. I’d rather wait for a genu$USELESS Brothers, with the interest rate hike implemented, the market is consolidating with some local warming in the meme sector. Current price is around 0.254, daily chart shows a rebound with a bullish close, and a 24-hour increase of over 12%.
According to whale data, the nominal long-short ratio is 273.46%, with long positions three times the short ones. The profit ratio among long whales is as high as 98.70%, meaning the vast majority of longs have already secured floating profits. Although there is still upward momentum in the short term, the market makers will likely push up slightly again to lure more buyers, but they won't give profits to retail investors for free. This round of rally is more about using the rebound to offload positions; my overall outlook is bearish.
Key defense references: short-term defense at 0.218; a decisive break below this level signals the end of the rebound rally. Resistance is around 0.26-0.27; be cautious of a pullback if the price hits this resistance.
Don't be fooled by short-term small rallies; it's not recommended to chase longs at high levels. Focus on whether the resistance can be broken and beware of concentrated selling pressure after the rally.$BTC $XAUT The Federal Reserve has implemented its first interest rate hike in three years, raising rates to 3.75%-4.00%, with the dot plot indicating the possibility of another hike within the year. Comparing the trends in the crypto market and gold, one can clearly see the differentiated impact of the "interest rate logic" on different assets.
For gold, there is short-term volatility but a solid bottoming logic. After the rate hike, spot gold briefly fell below $4300, but as the market digested the "bad news fully priced in," gold prices climbed back above the $4300 mark. The underlying support comes from the interpretation that the Fed's move is a "withdrawal of easing" rather than the start of full tightening, providing a phase bottom support for gold prices.
The crypto market shows a "bearish bias but sentiment not collapsed" state. Bitcoin dropped to $75,355 after the decision, then rebounded to around $75,800, with a cumulative decline of nearly 4% over the past seven days. The 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages signal bearishness, and the daily ADX value is relatively high, indicating a bearish trend and low market activity.
The current patterns of both are actually similar — both are in the digestion phase after bad news has landed. Gold's safe-haven attribute and crypto's inflation-hedging narrative are both undergoing repricing in a high interest rate environment. Going forward, attention should be paid to the Fed's subsequent tightening pace; if inflation data shows substantial decline, both markets will have clearer opportunities for a rebound. DeFi stablecoin yields currently can't even beat the US 2-year Treasury.
Currently, $AAVE's USDT, USDC, and $SKY's sUSDS mostly yield just over 3%, while US Treasuries are above 5%➕
The liquidity premium in crypto is gone, which is the sorrow of a zero-sum game.
From this perspective, the short-term prices of AAVE and SKY tokens are unlikely to improve
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 UniHexa has been expanding the whitelist for almost 3 days.
I looked at the current data and will give the conclusion directly:
Trading is possible, but the market hasn't taken off yet.
Currently, there are only 3 Runes trading pairs.
The 24-hour trading volume of $DOG is 0.00649642 BTC, about $492, and the market cap displayed on the page is close to $95M.
The 24-hour trading volumes of MIM and UNCOMMON•GOODS are both zero.
The recent $DOG trades in the screenshot are only about $7 to $10 each.
This indicates that the product process has indeed been completed and real trades have started to appear.
The problem is also obvious.
An asset with a market cap close to $95M only has a few hundred dollars in daily trading volume. With this liquidity, retail investors can buy in easily, but when they want to sell, there may not be anyone to take the other side.
UniHexa has only completed the first step of launch so far; the whitelist users are few, and trading pairs are limited, which are objective reasons. Next, they need to continue opening up to more users, add more assets, and bring in project teams and market-making funds.
Next, pay attention to three data points:
When BRC-20 will launch, how many trading pairs can be added, and whether the 24-hour trading volume can grow continuously.
#美联储三年来首次加息25个基点 Bitcoin’s on-chain activity remains unusually subdued, with long-term holders showing a strong preference to keep their coins dormant rather than actively move them. The bigger picture is interesting: older BTC supply continues to stay relatively inactive, suggesting that a significant portion of the market is being held with a longer-term time horizon rather than being actively rotated. 📊 What this could mean: 1️⃣ Illiquid supply is a double-edged sword When fewer coins are available for activ