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OpenAI is reportedly seeking at least $30 billion in funding, targeting a pre-money valuation of about $1.4 trillion, with discussions still in the early stages. Reading this, the first thing I think of is dilution ratio: assuming all ordinary shares are issued at the same price without special terms, $30 billion would account for about 2.1% of the post-financing valuation.
This is just a simplified calculation and should not be taken as the actual equity structure. But it explains why the company wants to maintain a high valuation: raising the same $30 billion, the higher the valuation, the smaller the proportion original shareholders need to give up. Behind that dazzling number in the financing news, there are very concrete interests arranged.
I acknowledge OpenAI's ability to turn its product into a large-scale business and understand that continued expansion requires capital. However, the financing price mainly reflects the terms both buyers and sellers are willing to accept in this round, and it does not prove that all shares can be liquidated at this price at any time.
For investors continuing to bet, they also need to assess how much business growth the new funds can bring and under what environment the next round of financing will occur. The willingness to pay today and the ability to exit smoothly years later are two different judgments.
AI valuations are getting bigger, which is indeed exciting but also a bit unsettling. When we discuss companies, we gradually spend more time guessing the next round's price and less time asking about the returns on new investments. How much sustainable revenue $30 billion can actually buy, I think, is more worth pursuing than the ranking on the valuation list.
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 🔷 Tokenized assets: $34.5B
• Tokenized markets show different patterns than traditional ones
• As of August 31: $34.5B tokenized RWA (140% YoY growth)
• Tokenized stocks: 81% individual stocks, 19% ETFs
• $4.43B (+390%), but only 0.0029% of the global stock market ($151.9T)
• Forecast: ~$349B by 2030
• SEC allowed limited trading (September 17)
• NYSE and Blockchain.com plan a platform
$AAPL $NVDA $TSLA First time leading trades, ended up with a loss!!! Previously made a profit of 8000, but after starting to lead trades, lost 4000 dollars. I want to apologize to all the brothers and sisters who followed my trades before. I've summarized a few issues: first, I was too focused on the win rate; second, I took more aggressive positions after losing money; third, my mindset hasn't adjusted yet. I'll make some adjustments before leading everyone to recover~ For now, please don't follow me~ $SOL $ETH $BTC #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 $XRP — Third straight monthly gain
July +2%, August +30%, September +7.95%. Total Q3 return: +43%.
First time XRP has closed all three months of a quarter in the green.
Exchange supply dropped from 12.9B to 11B XRP since April.
$XRP
#USJobsDataToday
#BTCETHETFOutflows 🔥 "Crypto Trio Today's Business Status Report"
Let's start with the leader. $BTC is currently holding steady at $86,555, up 3.4% in 24 hours. Institutional funds are slowly flowing in through the ETF channel, and Citibank's research report has raised the 12-month target to $113,000. But don't get full on the "target price pie"—before that day comes, it will first wander back and forth between $85,000 and $87,000, like a man who doesn't want to go home after work but is just pacing downstairs.
Second brother $ETH is at $2,734, up 1.7%, quietly steady. The technicals are intact, moving averages are stable, the only issue is a lack of catalyst. The SEC just proposed a new custody regulation, leaving a door open for self-custody and clarifying institutional participation paths, but it still needs a 60-day comment period to take effect. So ETH isn't struggling now; it's just waiting for "that call"—the day it breaks above $2,800 with volume, then the "ETH catching up" talk in the group will shift from mysticism to consensus.
Third brother $SOL is at $123.3, up 3.8%, +22.8% in 30 days, the most active in the market. Its strength and weakness are the same: high volatility. In a bull market, it treats you to milk tea; in a pullback, it crushes your milk tea cup. Don't chase it too hard at this level, set your take-profit orders well, and wait for it to pull back before rekindling the relationship.
A quick macro note: The 10-year US Treasury yield just dropped from 5.34% back to around 5.25%. Fed's Bowman said there's no rush to change rates this year, which eased the market somewhat. But if tonight's nonfarm payrolls don't come out, the relief is only half-hearted—the other half is reserved for fear of a data shock. It's over, it's over, got liquidated again! I'm on the path of daily liquidations, I'm such an idiot!
Another big bullish candle for $CT, mainly because the hype is picking up now. New coins usually have high hype, and now that the price has surged so much, the hype is even higher, which will only attract more short sellers. Plus, the market cap is small, so it's normal for the price to multiply several times easily!
The short positions at $CT 0.4-0.5 are probably going to be squeezed out. Once the liquidity from these traders bursts, the price could reach as high as 0.68!This pottery figurine buried just a few inches below the surface is by no means a significant archaeological find, but merely a funerary tile about to shatter.
Clearing away the surface dust on the $SUI candlestick chart, the upper Bollinger Band at 1.2080 looks like a heavily weathered burial mound—seemingly towering, but inside it has long been hollowed out by greedy tomb raiders. The so-called recovery before us has been recorded countless times in historical records, merely an illusory last glow before the dynasty's collapse.
There is nothing new under the sun; every surge at the end of a strong bow ultimately cannot escape the fate of being buried by yellow sand. The RSI lingers in the moderate quagmire at 52.5, lacking the grandeur of a true empire rising, clearly a final desperate struggle by the buyers. Rather than believing those fabricated positive bamboo slips, it is better to trust the layers of bones and debris in the stratigraphy.
As someone who has pored over millennia-old fragments, I only trust the measure of discipline. According to plan, I set a probe here, awaiting the inevitable collapse of the strata.
- Target: $SUI 🔴
- Entry: 1.1820 - 1.1950
- TP1: 1.1415
- TP2: 1.1100
- SL: 1.2150
History never forgives those who stubbornly cling to the past; time will harvest all arrogance.🏛️
#CryptoEarningsPressureShort Market Update
$BTC — $83,448. Holding 85K range while stocks sell off on surging yields.
Stocks: S&P 500 down 0.21%. 10-year yield at 5.34%, highest since 2002.
The read: Bitcoin isn't following equities down. Liquidity rotation is happening.
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#StrategyBuys1665BTC It's me who has a narrow mindset and low awareness; I've taken profits several times, yet it keeps rising. When the price drops and I face losses, I hold on firmly, but when the price rises and I make profits, I can't hold on.$BTC Approaching Previous High, Battle at the Gate
Current price 85914, bulldozing up from the bottom at 57800, the highest has already touched 86914, just one step away from the previous high of 87399!
Support at 78625. Up 36% in 90 days, the big trend is solidly bullish. As long as it doesn't break below 78000, hold steady and play dead. If you want to get in, don't chase at 86000, wait for a pullback near 83000 to buy.
$PUMP Explosive Surge, Beware of Risks
Current price 0.006016, surged 9.04% today! Up 2.8 times in 90 days, this thing is basically a money printer.
Current price is way, way above the support line! Profit-taking is extremely abundant, so absolutely do not chase the high and catch a falling knife now. If you hold spot, take profits in batches on rallies to lock in gains!
$LTC Veteran Mainstream Relay, Strong Rebound
Current price 70.07, up 4.56% today. Previously pulled back from 75, now has stubbornly climbed back above 70.
Old Litecoin’s catch-up rally is fierce. If it holds above 70, it will likely test the previous high of 75. A pullback to 66-68 is a buying opportunity; cut losses if it breaks below 60.
The market is oscillating at a high level with rapid capital rotation. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $UNI This ID perspective:
UNI on the 30-minute level started from the low point of 8.444, forming an upward continuation trend, just completing a central pivot breakout, belonging to the extension phase after the third buy. Entry: wait for a secondary level pullback that does not break below the central pivot ZG, then enter again when a bottom fractal signal appears; Stop loss: placed below the central pivot ZD.
Chan Theory Structure
The purple box is the 30-minute core central pivot, with ZG around 9.00 and ZD around 8.70. After the low of 8.444 bottomed, the market oscillated repeatedly within the purple central pivot range, extending sideways. This round of upward rally broke away from the central pivot, surging to 9.307. As long as the pullback does not fall back into the central pivot, the upward structure can continue; if the price falls back into the central pivot range, the trend returns to consolidation; once it breaks below the starting low of 8.444, this upward structure is destroyed.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
There was volume expansion during the breakout of the central pivot, with sufficient buying demand pushing the price quickly up to 9.307. During the subsequent pullback phase, volume noticeably contracted, and no large-scale selling pressure distribution appeared. If there is another upward attack later, volume expansion is needed to confirm demand; a volume-contracted rally is prone to stagnation and pullback.
Core Observation
Focus on the support strength at the upper edge of the 9.00 central pivot. If the pullback holds above ZG, the bulls continue upward; if it falls directly into the central pivot range, the validity of this breakout is questionable. The resistance above is the previous high at 9.307; only a volume breakout can open new upward space. The strength of $HYPE fundamentally depends on whether trading activity and platform revenue can continuously translate into token value. The market loves to reward high growth with a premium but is also quick to turn negative when growth slows. I tend to follow the trend and be bullish, but I don't chase uncontrolled rallies; only sustained volume and a stable pullback justify adding positions, while a volume-driven break below the previous high means it's time to stop.$BTC current price is 85886.4, I am your master.
The daily chart is still in a strong zone, but after the rally, it failed to hold the new high and started to consolidate with high-level churning. This wave has been pulling up all the way, and many who got off halfway have completely lost their mindset, watching the market surge but afraid to chase and also afraid of missing out, causing internal conflict.
The market looks strong, but the risks are also obvious. The daily RSI is already at a high level, and pushing higher requires more capital to take over. If the follow-up incremental funds can't keep up, a deep pullback and shakeout is likely.
Currently, the market's long and short positions are roughly balanced, unlike a few days ago when it was one-sided, indicating that the divergence has fully emerged. Bulls are holding chips hoping for another push above 87000, while bears are waiting for a round of pullback to crash the market.
Don't be trapped by the market's strength; missing out is not losing money, recklessly chasing is what really sends real money out. At this position, chasing highs has very low cost-effectiveness. It's better to wait for a pullback to confirm support before acting, rather than buying at the peak.
If the bullish force is not exhausted, it will naturally create new highs after the pullback; if it can't withstand the selling pressure, the first wave of decline will be severe. In high-level battles, preserving capital always comes first. Don't bet your entire fortune on the market continuing to surge.
$BTC
#BTC daily chart high-level divergence consolidation
Market observation only, not investment advicePre-Nonfarm Deleveraging: BTC Slightly Stronger, ZEC New Positions Still Holding the Drop
Nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate will be announced tonight at 20:30. Deleverage before the data.
BTC is at 84,802, up 1.58%, perpetual positions increased by 4.3%, price and positions rising in sync, short-term bulls still dominant. ZEC is at 1,341, down 5.94%, positions increased by 5.1%, new positions have not stopped selling pressure; 24-hour ZEC long liquidations about $17.25 million, clear risk of high-level pullback. HYPE is at 87.85, down 2.83%, positions decreased by 4.8%, funds are retreating.
OKX smart money sample is small, only for sentiment reference: BTC shorts account for 84.5%, but sample dropped to 14 people, positions reduced by about $1.01 million; ZEC longs and shorts each 4 people, positions reduced by about $780,000; HYPE only 3 people, longs account for 92.8%, weak signal.
Main opportunities still focus on BTC:
- 1-hour close above 85,250 and pullback not breaking, light long trial, stop loss 84,600, target 86,550.
- If close breaks below 84,400, rebound to try short, stop loss 85,050, target 83,100.
- Observe HYPE at 86.40, ZEC at 1,330, consider short if break below and fail to recover.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $ETH is slightly bullish in the short term. It rose 1.76% in 24h, mainly driven by short sellers being forced to cover: short liquidations totaled $17.86 million, three times that of longs. In other words, this rally is not due to new leverage entering, but because bearish positions were squeezed out, easing the resistance above. The options side is also bullish: the put/call volume ratio is only 0.40, clearly favoring calls; DVOL at 49.8 is not high, indicating the market is not pricing in a sharp drop. The fee rate has been slightly positive, which can only be considered background and not a reason. The descending trendline on the chart still presses from above, but it is drawn from previous highs, reflecting the structure before the shorts were cleared. The shorts that were squeezed out this time were exactly those, so the pressure from this line has diminished. Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, supporting the price to push higher; only by holding above the previous high can the space be considered open. Bearish reversal condition: a drop below 2,671.1 would indicate the short squeeze was a one-time fuel with no follow-through, invalidating the bullish view. $CT 15min divergence, should be able to short after confirmation, huge new high, divergence, not sure about the final direction, shorted at 0.61 and exited at 0.59, recovered the liquidation from this morning, this $CT is crazy🔥 I’ve been holding this short from $845 for weeks, and after the latest pullback, the position is finally getting closer to break-even. The $760–$780 zone is the next area I’m watching. If sellers keep control, a deeper move toward $720 could come next. If ZEC reclaims $800+, the short thesis starts looking weaker. One lesson from this trade: patience matters, but risk management matters more. Short squad, stay disciplined. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #ZEC #Crypto #DailyOrbitSlowMist reported that the Safe module used in Aave v3's "loop strategy" was attacked:
The attacker exploited an open()/close() access control vulnerability in the third-party adapter FlashLoopAdapter, forged Safe authentication, and arbitrarily executed modules, stealing about 114.09 ETH (approximately $310,000) from two multisig addresses, and repaid about 1300 WETH debt to unlock collateral.
Aave founder Kulechov responded that the involved module is a third-party external adapter built on top of v3, and the Aave v3 contracts themselves were not affected.
This serves as a reminder that the attack-defense boundary in DeFi is shifting from the core protocol to layers of stacked third-party components.#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat Market turns warmer. BTC strengthened with increased volume during the day, current price 85,960, 24h +2.2%, intraday high touched 86,794, stepping firmly on the 85,000 ceiling that had been pressing for a week; ETH follows with slower gains, currently at 2,728 (+0.3%).
The driver is macro easing: WTI crude oil fell 2% to 90.95, geopolitical premium receded, shorts were rapidly forced to cover and buy, a stark contrast to last week's panic market.
Key levels
- BTC: resistance at 86,800, 87,000, 87,400 (September high concentration zone); support at 85,000 (break and retest level), 84,000.
- ETH: resistance at 2,739, 2,786, 2,800; support at 2,700, 2,670. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $AAVE
The leading lending platform surged 11% today, with a trading volume of 335 million, showing real momentum.
Contract open interest simultaneously increased by 23.6%, and funds are still flowing in as the price rises, igniting short-term sentiment.
Everyone, don't rush to chase this move; wait for a pullback that doesn't break the previous high before considering entry.
$AAVE Lloyds Bank and Visa completed a 7-day live pilot, settling $750,000 in payment obligations using stablecoins:
USDC was purchased through the UK licensed exchange Archax, recorded and transferred by Lloyds Jersey's corporate markets division to Visa in the US, with funds arriving in under an hour, including on weekends.
This is the first stablecoin settlement trial between Visa and a major UK banking group.
Note that the settlement was for debts between financial institutions, not customer payments—stablecoins are running for the first time as an "interbank settlement rail." Market attention is focused on the heavy US non-farm payroll data tonight. The September unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by only 90,000, far below the previous 162,000. The data expectations are weak, providing support expectations for gold prices.
From the market perspective, gold prices have recently fluctuated and strengthened, with the market preemptively betting on the possibility of weak employment data. If the non-farm payroll increase falls short of expectations and the unemployment rate remains high, it will strengthen market speculation that the Federal Reserve will slow its policy, which is bullish for gold. Technically, prices are steadily rising supported by moving averages, with bullish momentum gradually accumulating, and there is short-term room for further gains.
However, the risk of unexpectedly strong data should still be watched. If employment data significantly exceeds expectations, it will suppress the gold price rebound. In terms of operations, it is advisable to wait for the data release, position based on key support levels, and prioritize a bullish approach. Control position sizes, pay attention to sharp market fluctuations at the moment of data release, and manage risk well. $XAU Core logic of cryptocurrency market trends during the National Day holiday:
1. Domestic traders are on holiday, market liquidity decreases, and even small funds can cause significant price fluctuations, making liquidation scenarios more likely; therefore, high leverage positions should be reduced.
2. The market is mainly influenced by U.S. stocks, U.S. Treasury bonds, and ETF capital flows, so overseas macroeconomic data should be closely monitored.
3. BTC is currently in a high-level oscillation range, with heavy resistance above and key support below temporarily stable; the overall trend has not changed significantly yet. If the key support is broken, a deeper correction may occur.
4. The altcoin sector shows clear differentiation, with new coins and airdrop coins experiencing large market volatility. Trading should focus on mature trading patterns and avoid blindly chasing high-risk, low-quality coins.
During holiday trading, it is better to miss opportunities than to make mistakes.
Let go of the obsession with 100x or 1000x returns; the true trading skill lies in managing risk and securing returns steadily over the long term.
$BTC $ETH $CT
⚠️ The above content does not constitute investment advice; trading carries risks that must be borne by yourself.
#InterestRateHikeExpectationsDelayed #SeptemberNonFarmPayrollsNextKey
#BitcoinETFInflow9DaysInARow #ETHTurnsOutflow
#USTreasuryYieldsHitNewHighs #LongTermRatePressureUnrelieved$XRP's gains lead mainstream coins—is it new demand or short-term rotation?
OKX market data shows $XRP's gains in the past 24 hours outpace BTC and ETH. Relative strength tends to attract follow-up capital, but leading price does not mean payment usage or ecosystem demand have grown in sync.
I will watch if the strength holds after trading cools down; if gains are quickly given back, short-term rotation explains this rise better than fundamental changes.The CFTC is pushing to explicitly include "event contracts" within the definition of "swaps," and has already submitted two related rules to the White House for review.
The intention is straightforward: as long as event contracts are legally considered swaps, the CFTC can assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over regulated prediction markets, blocking states' "gambling" accusations.
Thus, the dispute over prediction markets escalates from "legal or illegal" to "whether you count as a swap"—in this battle, the power to define is itself the power to govern.🔥 NFP × CRYPTO — THE LIQUIDITY TEST
September NFP:+90K expected
August:+162K
That’s a44.4% slowdown.
₿ BTC ETF flows just snapped a9-day, $3.1B inflow streak.
Hot jobs → yields ↑ → BTC pressure
Weak jobs → rate-hike bets ↓ → liquidity hopes ↑
BTC is sitting at the macro crossroads.
👀NFP decides the first big move.Brent moving back above $100 is less a verdict on lost supply than a repricing of fragility. With no breakthrough on ceasefire, sanctions, or Hormuz, tight fuel markets leave little room for a prolonged disruption.
The added Patriot deployments may contain risk at the margin, but oil will likely stay sensitive to diplomatic signals until the corridor question is clearer.
#USIranOilTensions Market tug-of-war between bulls and bears: institutions are adding positions while large holders are cashing out
BTC liquidations reached $136 million in the past 24 hours
A total of 7,685 accounts were liquidated
This shows significant volatility in the short-term contract market
Many leveraged positions were wiped out by market moves
Capital flows show clear divergence
On October 1, spot ETFs for $BTC and $XRP saw net inflows
BTC net inflow was $102.67 million, XRP inflow was $4.07 million
But spot ETFs for $ETH and $SOL experienced outflows
ETH net outflow was $55.37 million, SOL net outflow was $5.91 million
Institutional funds are starting to selectively position
No longer entering the market blindly across the board
Another noteworthy data point
BTC realized profits of 25,700 coins in a single day earlier
Setting a new high for daily profit-taking this year
Short-term unrealized profit rate rose to 33%
Spot demand has clearly contracted over the past month
Futures speculative volume has also dropped significantly
Indicating many large holders are gradually taking profits
The market now is a typical divergence scenario
Long-term institutions continue accumulating BTC chips
But earlier profit-takers are choosing to exit
Combined with ongoing contract liquidations digesting leverage
Bulls and bears are battling back and forth
Market volatility will persist for some time
Capital has begun rotating across sectors
Mainstream coins will gradually diverge in performance
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ZEC privacy coin has gone absolutely wild today. It climbed from the June low of 452 all the way up to near the historical high above 3000, then gave back some gains. Its counterpart XMR has risen 17.8% in seven days; the privacy duo is exploding together, definitely not just retail investors itching to trade.
Why the surge? Geopolitical black swans are the best catalysts. The US and Iran are clashing in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US naval blockade reducing Iran's September crude oil shipments to zero. As sanctions escalate, everyone is eyeing privacy assets. Zcash holders just approved $8.39 million in retroactive funding, and the community remains intact. It’s climbing from the foothills, with institutions treating it as a sanctions hedge.
But don’t get too optimistic. ZEC dropped 8% in one day; after doubling in ninety days, the correction has only just begun, with the ATH 3191 looming overhead. Privacy coins carry policy risk like a sword hanging by a thread—if a major power truly bans them, liquidity evaporates overnight. Also, this rally is clearly event-driven; once the event cools off, it’s free fall.
Keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz situation and Iran sanctions progress—these are ZEC’s lifeline.
ZEC is hard currency in chaotic times, but when the chaos ends, it will be the first to be dumped. Trade the swings, don’t treat it as faith. ⚡ BTC × ETH ETF FLOW — CAPITAL COOLING?
BTC’s 9-day, ~$3.1B inflow streak just broke.
Latest session:
₿ BTC ETF: +$102.7M
Ξ ETH ETF: -$55.4M
The heat is cooling, but the leader has something to say.
BTC is still attracting fresh capital while ETH sees withdrawals.
If BTC keeps absorbing money, can the market rotate back into alts? 👀Bitcoin is quite strong today, almost touching $87,000,
But beyond the surface-level candlestick frenzy, the essence of this rally is actually the resonance of three core logics:
1. Macro recovery: U.S. Treasury yields have significantly declined, greatly easing external liquidity pressure;
2. Short squeeze effect: Shorts in the 84k-85k range faced intense liquidation, with over $120 million in short liquidations in 24 hours, which is 10 times the size of long liquidations. Bulls are leveragi 😈 After the recent pump, profit-taking is starting to appear, and retail traders are leaning toward the short side. I’m holding for now and watching the reaction. 📊 Key levels: The $0.52–$0.55 zone is now acting as short-term resistance. A rejection there could bring another pullback, while a clean breakout could invalidate the short setup. 🐋 Positioning update: Retail traders remain cautious and slightly short-biased. Whale positioning is much more balanced, suggesting no clear directional The market is all shouting long, and when the sentiment is high, there are always some rushing to short! Now it's good, within a few hours, $90 million worth of shorts in Bitcoin contracts have been liquidated. Were you among them?
This morning, I also saw a large number of shorts pending liquidation between 85,600 and 86,500 on the liquidation map. (Figure 1)
As a result, the price quickly rose just now, wiping out more than half of the short positions, but right after the liquidation, a large number of shorts quickly filled the gap again. (Figure 2)
Actually, I’m quite nervous for the shorts because the price pullback is very likely a cover for high-leverage shorts. If you enter at this time, you might very well become the fuel for the main force to break through 87,000!
Moreover, judging by the fast pace of covering now, the main force is very likely to launch another upward attack, liquidate shorts, and then pull back again.
I combined multiple indicators and also verified this point.
Currently, the price has fallen from 86,888 to around 86,000, with buying power appearing to push the price to this level of fluctuation. I calculated that if you open a short position here with too high leverage, the liquidation price would be just around 86,888, which was the level that just failed to break through.
So, if the price consolidates here without further decline! Brothers, don’t say I didn’t warn you! If you short now, there’s a very high probability you’ll become the stepping stone for breaking through 87,000.
Also, the Open Interest (OI) hasn’t dropped significantly.
Here’s the logic: price rises, a large number of shorts get liquidated, but OI doesn’t drop much, and it doesn’t drop much on the pullback either.
This indicates that shorts have not yet exited after entering, and some have even covered.
The RSI has also recovered to a neutral state, reducing the pressure from overbought conditions.
And importantly, various moving averages are still in bullish alignment; the structure is intact.
For now, I’m still on the bullish side.
Another rise, 87,000 is the real test; if it breaks through, the upper space opens up.
If it can’t break through, be careful of a quick pullback, with a downside target of 84,500.
The key now is! Can 86,000 become a new support level?
As long as a new bottom forms here, breaking through 90,000 is also possible.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"All three coins are pushing upwards together, but the short-term is already overheated, so you need to take some profits first.
$BTC broke through 86,000, just a step away from the previous high of 86,888. The moving averages are in a bullish alignment, MACD momentum is very strong, but the 1-hour RSI is approaching the overbought zone of 66-68, so a wick could appear at any time. Keep holding long positions, reduce a bit on rallies, don’t chase. Resistance is at 87,000, support is around 84,000-85,000.
$ETH has stabilized above 2,700, surpassed the old high at 2,747, showing a healthy pattern. A pullback near 2,700 is an opportunity for light entry, with 2,800 as the next resistance.
$ZEC pulled back from 1,385 to 1,305, but the SAR is still above the price, and MACD hasn’t turned positive, indicating a weak rebound. Avoid heavy positions, support is at 1,300, resistance between 1,400-1,440, focus on selling high and buying low.
The hourly RSI for all three is at a high level; be sure to use stop-loss and take-profit orders on contracts. Adding positions at highs is the easiest way to get cut, so pocket your profits first.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $SOL hasn't moved much recently, but more people in the community are talking about it, all saying things like "Hold the top three in the big cycle."
I just want to laugh. Those who really hold it were there at 2, were there at 200, and are still there at 120 now—they don't post at all.
At 3 PM, I saw a giant whale's ETH order, 25x full position, over 30,000 coins, with the liquidation price right at 2550. I stared at those numbers for a long time—this isn't called a position, it's like handing over your lifeline. If their account shakes, I lose a year's salary.
Coins like SOL are just good as a reference point; don't watch them obsessively every day. If you really want to learn something, learn from those who quietly hold without saying a word, not from those who show off their daily returns. I'll say it here, and someone in the comments will jump out again shouting that SOL is going to break 300. $SOL Prices surged rapidly during the midday session, once breaking through the 2720 level and reaching around 2747, entering the previously repeatedly tested high-level resistance cluster (roughly between 2716 and 2756).
Tonight, the US non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and the market is in a highly sensitive state before that. The data results will directly dictate the next phase of the trend.
Two operational paths to consider:
Path one: Lightly attempt short positions at high levels, with a stop loss set at 2756. The current high remains probing within the resistance zone, with no signs of a solid close above it yet, so the probability of a pullback is relatively higher. If the price continues to rise and triggers the stop loss, it means the resistance has been truly broken, and the original short logic immediately fails, allowing a shift to trend-following long positions. If it encounters resistance and falls back, focus on the re-pricing near the lower boundary of the consolidation range.
Path two: Completely abandon pre-data speculation, wait for the non-farm payroll release and a clear market direction before taking action, to avoid stop-loss risks caused by sudden sharp fluctuations.
Structural reference points: The short-term consolidation box lower boundary is roughly between 2580–2600, with a more critical wave watershed near 2536 corresponding to Gann 2×1. If the non-farm data triggers a quick dip followed by a swift stabilization, low-level buying can be considered; if 2580 is effectively broken, then the bottom-fishing idea should be completely abandoned.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC $ETH $ZEC A brief chat about $PUMP and $LIT
I've called out both of these coins in the community. The earliest call for PUMP was on July 12, at a price of about 0.0014, and it has since gained over 3x; LIT was first called at around 2.5, and it has basically doubled now. If you trust me, you can search for PUMP or LIT using the magnifying glass at the top right of the plaza to check historical posts.
PUMP: Its resilience is indeed strong. Despite competition from the Robinhood ecosystem and Stonk diversion, it has maintained its leading position and keeps hitting new highs. The Meme sector won't disappear; it's just highly cyclical. After each wave of hype fades, Pump remains a stable "traffic business" on-chain, so it still serves as a mid-to-long-term holding.
LIT: RH users use their own Perp, which does affect short-term sentiment, but the market might be overreacting. LIT has real operational data and does not rely entirely on RH US users. Perp Dex regulation is also not fully clear yet, so it's not surprising that RH hasn't integrated Lighter.
In the short term, LIT is somewhat oversold and may see a rebound. Long term, it depends on how much real trading volume remains after subsidy reductions. Comparing operational data directly with HYPE now might overestimate user stickiness.
PUMP is simpler: Meme is cycling again, and the business of issuing tokens and collecting fees is still going on 🤦A certain whale/institution liquidated their long-term DeFi token investments, accumulating a loss of $9.61 million: 10 days ago, they sold 37.26 million CRV held for 3 years, realizing a loss of $5.97 million; 3 hours ago, they transferred 4.01 million PENDLE held for 1 year to OKX, with an unrealized loss of $3.64 million, the two transactions adding up exactly to $9.61 million.
3-year long-term, 1-year long-term, all exited at "cut-loss prices." Is this a loss of faith or forced selling? The patient capital of DeFi blue chips has withdrawn first; who do you think is still willing to take these chips?
$BTC $ETH $CRVThe Strait remains tense, crude oil bulls seize the opportunity to counterattack
On October 1, Brent crude closed at $102.31, up 4.37% for the day; WTI closed at $92.87, up 2.71%. There are three triggers: the Hormuz oil tanker was set on fire by an unidentified flying object, bringing the number of attacked oil tankers this week to three; the US military has deployed a third aircraft carrier strike group and nearly 10,000 troops to the Middle East; Trump hinted that actions against Iran might escalate after the midterm elections.
However, the real concern in the market is the bottleneck on the refining side. JPMorgan pointed out that Middle East crude oil exports have returned to 98% of pre-war levels, but refined products are only at 58%, with short-term shortages in diesel and jet fuel hard to fill. The US diesel price remains high at $6.40 per gallon.
BTC is at 83,821, facing resistance at 85,500 and support at 83,000. Position holders can set stop-loss below 82,500; those without positions should wait for stabilization between 83,000-83,500. With geopolitical and inflationary pressures combined, chasing the rally has an average success rate.
Are you bullish or bearish on this oil price wave? See you in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Everyone is waiting for a breakout, but I went short on BTC: Come on, market, teach me a lesson
Honestly, I'm scared too.
The trend is so strong, everyone is shouting about breaking 90,000, but I shorted at 86,000.
It's not stubbornness, it's just that this level makes me uncomfortable:
• 86,000 is a round number, emotions are most likely to get carried away;
• Funding rates are hot, longs are too crowded;
• The rally is too smooth, like looking for the last buyer;
• I'm not guessing the top, I'm just testing the short side.
Stop loss is very clear: 87,777, if it breaks, I admit I'm wrong.
Position is light, target first looks at 82,000, if it breaks down, then 78,000.
If wrong, cut losses, no holding on, no stubbornness.
You can call me counter-trend, but trading is not about following the crowd.
When the bulls are partying wildly, someone has to stay calm.
What I short is greed, not BTC.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 It's really a pity not to use leverage after clearly seeing the market trend. Both axti and btc used small leverage and small positions. Neither caught the big gains. As I always say, fast profits come with fast losses. Altcoins and US stocks have at most 8x leverage; other multiples, I think, are just gambling.
Today was pretty good #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#axtiDo you really think $BTC can only go up from here? 🤔
I’m holding a short, even though some people are mocking the position.
I already closed half at 82,800, locking in around 1,500 points, and I’m keeping the rest open.
I still expect a pullback, especially with tonight’s NFP data coming.
I’m simply trading the direction I believe in—let the market decide. 📉#AnthropicEyesNovIPO #USJobsDataToday #BTCETHETFOutflows Brothers, Heaven rewards the diligent. I finally caught a wave.
Even ants are meat, no matter how small. Recently, I've been trapped like a Russian nesting doll, numb from it. Although overall it's still a small loss, it's much better than losing all the time!
Today's strategy:
$BTC The big coin surged directly to 86800 this morning, just a few hundred points shy of breaking the previous high. Those who shorted must be stuck and numb. I think today will still be a volatile market, with a high probability of a spike down to 84500 or around 83300 tonight. So for those wanting to go long, 84500 and 83300 are entry points, stop loss at 82488, take profit near the previous high at 87300.
$ETH As for the second coin, more spot buying has been done relative to funds, but the leader is still the big coin which has been strong these days. The second coin is a few points away from yesterday's target of 2750. If it pulls back tonight, go long at 2670 or 2650, stop loss remains at 2620, take profit at 2780 or 2800.
⚠️ The above is for reference only, investment carries risks.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Exit and merge speeds improve, staking liquidity will be better but still not instant
Glamsterdam plans to increase the churn of validator exits and merges, meaning the scale allowed to be processed per epoch. As the total staked amount grows, the old parameters may cause exits or merging multiple validators into larger balances to take too long; moderately increasing throughput can reduce queuing friction and work with Pectra's upcoming compounding validator balance of up to 2048 ETH. This will not turn staking into an instantly accessible demand deposit; exits are still subject to network queues, finalization, and service provider processes. Users of liquid staking products also face secondary market price, contract, and operator risks. For $ETH, a smoother exit mechanism can reduce participants' concerns about being locked up long-term and improve validator structural adjustments, but raising parameters too quickly could also cause large amounts of funds to exit concentratedly during stress periods. Good liquidity does not mean removing security constraints but reducing unnecessary waiting within the network's tolerable range.
The clearer the exit capability, the more staking products should disclose the real arrival path: whether exits are protocol-driven, covered by pool liquidity, or rely on secondary market takers. The risks of these three methods are not the same. was stuck in traffic and crowded tourist spots, I was busy getting absolutely destroyed by the ZEC candlestick chart and its brutal volatility. While others spent their holiday buying happiness, I spent mine opening 30x leverage positions and questioning every life decision I’ve ever made. Looking back at that chaotic night, ZEC felt less like a chart and more like a roller coaster designed specifically to liquidate my patience. 🕙 22:05 – 22:48: The first trap — bulls get crushed I watched ZE#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Bitcoin has reached 85,000. Can it hold this time?
To be honest, this level is quite interesting.
On-chain data is conflicting. On one side, the short-term holders' cost line has been pushed up to $73,700, and the market price premium has narrowed to about 14%, meaning those who chased the highs before are gradually losing profits. On the other side, whales have accumulated over 40,000 BTC in the past ten days, holding nearly 68% of the total supply. Retail investors are watching, while big players are buying; this structure isn't bad.
There's a signal from smart money: the scale of whales transferring stablecoins to exchanges has increased from 21.7 billion to 30.5 billion in one month, a 40% rise. Money is waiting at the door but hasn't fully entered yet.
Alternative data shows the Fear & Greed Index at 72, in the greed zone but not extreme. The funding rate is about 0.007%, and leverage isn't crazy.
Technically, BTC's current price is around 86,100, up nearly 3% in 24 hours. The psychological resistance is at 90,000 above, and the short-term holders' cost at 73,700 below is a strong support.
My view: Holding above 85,000 is a strong signal, with a chance to push to 90,000, but the premise is that ETF funds don't dry up.XAUT Has Real Gold. Now Price Needs More Proof Now
XAUT represents one fine troy ounce of physical gold.
The backing is real. Supply has grown, reserves are attested, and tokenized-gold demand is expanding.
But price remains below its 2026 ATH near $5,505.
$4,115–$4,140 is the level that matters. Below it, the setup weakens.
First resistance: $4,300–$4,325.
The catalyst is measurable demand: more supply, liquidity and usage.
Watch, not a long. Price needs proof.
$XAUT
#OKXTraderVoices $ETH is rising today, having already broken through the 2700 level.
However, on October 1st, ETH spot ETF net outflows ranged from 14 million to 49 million dollars (depending on the metric), marking two consecutive days of net outflows. The 110 million dollars net inflow accumulated over the past seven days has also been partially eaten away. More disheartening is the technical level: ETH repeatedly tried to break 2800 last week but couldn't hold it. Citi raised its 12-month target price from 2240 to 3028, but the price can't even surpass the 2800 mark, so a higher target is just wishful thinking.
ETH's volume remains weak, and two consecutive days of ETF outflows indicate institutions are cautious rather than bottom-fishing. Coupled with US Treasury yields breaking 5%, and the dollar index hitting 102, all dollar-denominated risk assets are under pressure, with high-beta assets like ETH taking the hardest hit.
After the CPI, whether interest rate expectations will ease and whether ETH can gain volume to hold above 2800 remain to be seen. If it can't break through, don't expect 3000.
It's not that ETH can't rise; it's just not its time to perform yet. Hold on without rushing, but also avoid leverage. Shorted $AAVE, took profit at 145
Their V3 pool crashed. Many veterans used to have sentiment for AAVE, but now AAVE is just a high-quality badass shell, with continuous inflows of 100 million USDC, which is merely equity swapping. The recent pump was just to raise the valuation; the boss has now achieved his goal and sold himself a good price.Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls (September, announced at 20:30 Beijing time)
Market consensus expectations
• New nonfarm jobs: 84,000
• Unemployment rate: 4.1%
• Reference ADP small nonfarm: 90,000, slightly above expectations, indicating relatively strong employment resilience
Three scenario forecasts + impact on $BTC /$ETH
1. Data > 100,000 (employment exceeds expectations, hawkish)
Employment is hot, rate hike expectations rise, USD strengthens.
👉BTC and ETH face downward pressure, likely to quickly retest support levels.
2. Data 70,000~90,000 (meets expectations)
Market has priced in in advance, likely to experience slight fluctuations first, continuing the existing trend with relatively limited volatility.
3. Data < 60,000 (below expectations, dovish)
Employment weakens, rate hike expectations cool down, favorable for risk assets.
👉BTC and ETH likely to surge, testing upper resistance levels.