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$MON Today’s market, few dare to pull up against the trend, but MON is on the list with a 16.5% increase. Open interest rose 36% in 24 hours, the long-short ratio is 2.23, with longs dominating. This kind of pull looks mostly driven by new funds, chasing the high carries considerable risk. If it can’t hold around 16, it’s likely to retest the 14 area. Let’s first see if it can sustain the volume. $MON $MON $ZEC brothers, ZEC is causing trouble again. Just a moment ago it was hovering above 1400, now it has directly fallen below 1400, with the current price around 1380. From the previous high of 1697, it has already retraced nearly 20%. I've been watching it for several days, ranging between 1370 and 1450, almost every time it falls below 1380 it is quickly pulled back. I was originally thinking, is this the big players accumulating for a big move, preparing to break new highs, or is it high-level consolidation preparing to sell off? Now with this drop, I start to suspect: are they really about to run? What hurts more is that my long positions are also starting to show floating losses. I set my last line of defense: if it falls below 1300, I will cut losses immediately and stop holding on stubbornly. This wave of ZEC really taught me a lesson. Having little capital but still daring to hold heavy positions, opening two positions on one coin at the same time, feeling like a genius when making profits, only to realize it was all luck when it falls. Brothers, is the ZEC bull still alive? Can it fight back this time? #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 The first time I bought crypto I was just scrolling on my phone Saw others saying you could make money I got impulsive Opened an account Bought some $BTC It dropped right after buying Felt frustrated those days Later I sold Then it slowly went up I was so mad I kept slapping my leg Later I got some $ETH Not really understanding Just too lazy to fuss Left it alone Ended up not losing much Also chased some $SOL in between Bought at the peak Sold at the bottom Looking back it’s funny My position now is very small Playing with spare money If I earn, I treat myself to a chicken leg If I lose, I consider it tuition No borrowing No going all in No staying up late watching the market I just listen when others shout trade signals But I make my own decisions when I really act This circle has many opportunities But even more traps Being able to sleep well is better than anything Life goes on Crypto is just crypto#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 *October 1 Netherlands + Nonfarm Dual Boost Bitcoin Chinese Final News $BTC $84K* *1. Current Price* $BTC *around $84,000*, the $83K-$83.5K support you mentioned held today, if it stands back above $85K then watch for $87K. $ETH *$2.69K*, $2.65K-$2.67K support held, if it stabilizes above $2.70K then watch for $2.75K-$2.80K. *2. Biggest Boost Tonight #Netherlands* *Netherlands abandons 36% unrealized gains tax!* - Passed by the House of Representatives on February 12 this year, requiring 36% tax on annual gains even for unsold $BTC - Senate withdrew on September 29 fearing investor flight - *New plan: 36% tax only when selling*, stocks to be implemented in 2028, *cryptocurrency only in 2030* - This is a big benefit for coin holders, previously gold bars and cold wallet BTC had to pay annually, now no longer required *3. Direction Set Tomorrow Night #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #RateHikeExpectationsDelayed* Three conflicting data points today: - ADP +90K vs expected 73K = bearish - Core PCE 0.2% vs 0.3% = bullish - GDP 2.2% vs 1.5% = bearish = Waiting for tomorrow's *Nonfarm NFP*: <70K pushes $90K, >90K breaks $82K down to $78NIGHT touched about 0.045 before falling back to around 0.038; I won’t chase the privacy narrative for now. Here’s what I see: OKX daily high around 0.0452, low about 0.0353, current price roughly 0.038, a pullback of about 16% from the high; in the past week, it surged from about 0.024 to a high near 0.045, an accumulated increase of about 85%. Today shows volume-driven surge followed by a pullback. The narrative is hyping "the next generation ZEC": Hoskinson publicly said Midnight might become bigger than Zcash, Monument Bank plans an initial phase of about £250 million tokenized deposits on-chain, and Google Cloud is running infrastructure nodes. These stories explain why some are rushing to accumulate, but most are long-term plans and verbal opinions, not real money arriving today. I think the gains and sentiment are strong enough, but touching about 0.045 then retreating to 0.038 means short-term optimism is already priced in; don’t blindly chase the dip on the way down. Seeing hype doesn’t equal seeing realization; in the short term, I trust the positions given by the candlesticks more. If it fails, watch for a break below about 0.0353 to continue down, or a candle that reclaims about 0.045 before considering chasing the rally. Are you waiting for a pullback around 0.033 to reassess, or do you think this privacy rotation can keep surging? $NIGHT $ZEC $ADA #InterestRateHikeExpectationsDelayed, SeptemberNonFarmPayrollsBecomeNextKey #USTreasuryYieldsHitNewHighs, LongTermRatePressureUnrelieved🔥"Tonight's Poker Session Record: $BTC Only Calls, No Reveals, $ETH Calculating Win Rates, $SOL Goes All-In Three Times in One Round" Bringing the three to the same poker table, tonight's game is full of drama 👇 🟠 $BTC: Sitting in seat 1 with a stack of 83,700 chips. Calls when others raise, checks a bluff and calls again. Holding "Spot ETF nine consecutive buys" as a hole card, expression flatter than the poker face. When asked why not reveal, "I don't need to show, just need to last till the end." A seasoned gambler's temperament, winning or losing feels like a vacation. 🟣 $ETH: Sitting in seat 3, taking notes. Calling at 2680, muttering "RWA win rate+, L2 win rate+, staking pool+." Slightly pulled back on ETF yesterday, like missing half a bet, but doesn't affect card counting. The one who looks most like taking an exam, already calculated expected returns before finishing the hand, just waiting to reveal the cards. 🟢 $SOL: Sitting in seat 5, hands trembling at $118. Just called then raised, just raised then re-raised to 117 like caught stealing a chicken, went all-in three times in two minutes, people nearby couldn't even keep up. On-chain volume exploded, chatter at the table exploded, "My TVL rose, I'm charging, I'm charging, I raised!" — a living heart rate accelerator.$ZEC really gets the bitter feeling of being reverse-squeezed right after placing an order 😂 Recently, the ZEC market in the 1400-1500 range has been like a meat grinder, completely kneading traders on both the long and short sides back and forth on the chart. Looking at the current market data, it almost perfectly hits the real rhythm of the market: * As of October 1st, the real-time price of ZEC hovers around $1414, with a 24-hour fluctuation range exactly locked between $1390-$1490, precisely confining repeated wash trading within a 100-point oscillation range * The retail long-short ratio on Binance has dropped to 0.46, with many retail traders crowded into short positions, but the large holders’ long-short ratio is nearly 1:1, showing no one-sided consensus among big money. This market naturally fits a dual-direction squeeze pattern of “push up when shorting, dump when longing” * The 24-hour trading volume remains high at $1.05 billion, and open interest has not shown a significant decline, making it almost impossible to have a clear single-direction trend in the short term Grayscale’s latest research report clearly points out that ZEC has gained over 20 times in the past year, yet its valuation has not hit a ceiling. The long-term bullish factors such as privacy coin compliant ETFs and the NU7 upgrade bringing Bitcoin-like scarcity narratives remain intact. In this market, staying out and waiting for a clear signal is definitely the safest choice. Even if you’re itching to try a little, never get carried away with $ZEC #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT The US Senate is at it again, this time targeting crypto taxation. They introduced a bill called ADAPT, proposed by Senator Steve Daines on September 30. Let me break it down for you in a few points. Buying things with compliant stablecoins will be tax-free. Small gas fees under $10 are also exempt. But the wash sale rule from stocks—"you can't buy back immediately after selling to claim a tax loss"—is now applied to crypto as well. The tax treatment for staking, lending, and ETF staking is also clearly defined. The bill is still in proposal stage and not yet effective. So what does this mean for our crypto world? I'll tell you two things. First, don’t treat this as a short-term positive. Extending the wash sale rule to crypto directly suppresses short-term traders and quant firms. Previously, you could sell at a loss and immediately buy back to claim a tax deduction; now that path is blocked. Compliance costs will rise, and the altcoin sentiment will definitely take a hit in the short term. Second, it strengthens the foundation in the long run. Tax exemption for stablecoin payments paves the way for on-chain payments. With clear tax rules, traditional capital will dare to enter. This is a double-edged sword: it cuts you short term but protects you long term. Here’s my take: compliance is a double-edged sword that will eventually clean up the market, leaving only the solid players. What do you think? $BTC $ETH NEAR at $5, did you chase the high? Up 180% in 30 days, Bitwise ETF attracted $50 million in two days, Intents cross-chain transactions reached 32 billion — but just now, the price dropped from 5.5 back to 4.74, down over 9% in 24 hours, with volume expanding. Is this wave "ETF bull retracing to pick you up" or are the pumpers starting to distribute after doubling in September? First, look at the surface: positive news landed, but price fell instead of rising. Bitwise spot ETF (NRR) opened on NYSE Arca on September 29-30, with $36 million inflow on the first day, $14 million on the second, a 0.75% fee, and even staking holdings as collateral. Sounds great? But after the price was pulled from 1.9 to 5.5, it started to give back at the high level. The daily chart shows a drop from overbought, the 4-hour chart is weak, and BTC is still sideways at 83,000. All indicators ask one question: is $5 the starting point or the end point? First thing: The ETF is real, but the slope is already downhill. $36 million on day one, $14 million on day two — inflow speed cut by 60%. Sounds okay? Let me tell you what this means: The ETF channel is open, but institutions are not rushing. $50 million total inflow against a $6.5 billion market cap is less than 1%. Compared to Bitcoin ETF’s tens of billions in the first week, NEAR’s scale is a "test the waters," not a "rush to accumulate." The fund narrative packages NEAR as an AI agent settlement layer — the story is complete, but the money hasn’t followed. Second thing: Intents has real volume, but fee buybacks are just a drop in the bucket. Cumulative cross-chain transactions of 30-32 billion, covering over 30 chains, with a single day hitting 300 million in mid-September. Protocol fees have been publicly buying back NEAR on the open market since February 2026, and there are indeed tokens in the multisig. In plain language: This is one of the few plausible "usage → token" closed loops. It’s not pure air; real transactions are happening. But note — the buyback scale is still very small relative to the $6.5 billion market cap. On-chain fees cover a pitifully low portion of market cap. The $5 you pay now is buying the expectation of "continued ETF inflow + Intents acceleration," not current cash flow. Narrative premium > real income. This is a common problem for all L1s, NEAR included. Third thing: Chain abstraction is a good story, but the AI agent narrative can be claimed by anyone. NEAR is now selling not TPS, but chain abstraction and Intents. Sounds advanced? But the AI agent settlement layer track is being shouted by Solana, Base, and any random L1 can claim it. Sustainability depends on weekly volume, not single-day peaks. Is that 300 million daily volume from mid-September still there? Just check the on-chain data. Bull vs. bear, you decide: On one side: Bitwise ETF has launched, institutional channel is real Intents cross-chain transactions over 30 billion, buyback loop running Circulating supply 1.31 billion, market cap/FDV close to 1, low unlocking pressure Inflation capped at 2.5%, staking yield 4.5%, clean chip structure 30-day rise of 180%, trend bullish On the other side: ETF inflow slope sharply down, institutions not rushing Buyback scale is a drop in the bucket against $6.5 billion market cap September has nearly doubled, $5 buys "continued acceleration" expectation AI agent narrative easily claimed by other L1s If BTC breaks below 82,600, high-beta NEAR will break structure first Key level $5.00, not a bargain. Resistance above: 5.30-5.40 (today’s midline lost) → 5.50-5.58 (this round supply zone) → only above 5.60 can we talk 6.00-6.50 Support below: 4.74-4.80 (today’s low zone) → 4.50-4.55 (September 29 platform) → 4.00-4.20 (pre-acceleration step) → 3.50-3.60 (deep retracement zone) 5.00 is a psychological integer level, not a discount zone. Holding 4.50 means the main uptrend is just resting; daily close below 4.50 means short-term deep retracement. Trading strategy (no nonsense): Aggressive: Light long near 5.00, stop loss 4.72. First target 5.30, second target 5.50. Reduce half at 5.30. Don’t add leverage at integer level, ETF inflow is slowing. Conservative: Wait for 4.50-4.80 to consider long, stop loss 4.28. Better entry is 4.00-4.20; if not reached, hold small position and wait. Better to miss than chase high at 5.5. Breakout: Only consider chasing second leg if volume breaks and holds above 5.60, with pullback not below 5.40; target 6.00-6.50. Fake breakout, give up immediately, don’t fight. Bearish: Now quiet shorts can be squeezed by ETF inflow. Only consider reversing if daily close below 4.50 with volume, targets 4.20 and 4.00. Position size: single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage within 3-5x. This is not investment advice, follow your own risk preference. NEAR now is like SOL in 2021 — Good story, real volume, but price has priced in too much expectation in advance. The day 5.60 is confirmed, you’ll slap your thigh and say "should chase." The day 4.50 breaks, you’ll be glad you didn’t load up at $5. Waiting alive for confirmation signals is ten thousand times more important than gambling on direction at integer levels. $BTC $ETH $NEAR #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 I never thought I’d be the guy gambling tomorrow’s food and rent on one fucking candle. $ETH short. 100x leverage. 3 coins. Entry is already underwater. ETH is around 2715, and liquidation is sitting painfully close at 2753. Just $38. That’s all that stands between me and liquidation. One more spike. Just one. If that happens, this position is gone. And with it goes the money I needed for food and rent tomorrow. #DailyOrbit $BTC and $ETH monthly candles have officially closed. From the monthly-chart perspective, both BTC and ETH are showing signs that favor a potential bullish October. The monthly MACD fast and slow lines are turning upward near the zero line, suggesting momentum may be approaching a key turning point. The stochastic oscillator is also moving higher, while the monthly MA5 and MA10 have formed a golden cross.#DailyOrbit US ISM prices paid is higher than expected inflation higher that is why usd higher and metal down Inflation is a bigger concern Producer are paying higher prices🔥 BTC — OCTOBER 1 WATCH Bitcoin is hovering around $83.7K–$84K after yesterday’s move above $85K failed to hold. BTC remains inside the $82K–$85K range. 🟠 Resistance: $85K 🟢 Support: $82K–$83K A clean break from this range could bring some serious volatility. 👀 BTC — breakout or another range day? 🔥Don't just read the first half of this ETH news tonight $ETH First, fully review the MetaMask update: some infrastructure experienced a security incident, the team has taken preventive measures to have affected validators exit; but on October 1, the official statement also said that so far, investigations show no signs that wallets or client funds were affected. Validator exit means stopping participation in staking validation and should not be directly translated as immediately selling an equivalent amount of tokens. The focus is on the scope of the investigation, recovery arrangements, and the impact on staking rewards. Current information is insufficient to escalate the issue to a network-wide problem, nor to declare the investigation concluded. $PENDLE This evening's drop slightly dampened the strong performance from earlier in the day. Currently at 2.37u, below the evening's 2.464u, a difference of about 3.8%, although it is still up about 1.8% over 24 hours. If a rebound follows, first see if it can recover this retracement before rushing to redraw higher targets. The business logic can be studied gradually, but short-term holdings should be managed according to one's own cost basis and risk tolerance. $WLD Needs a reassessment of short-term momentum, currently about $0.513 in the evening, down about 1.9% over 24 hours, but still up about 12.5% over the past week. The weekly-scale recovery is ongoing, and today's retracement is real and present; these two facts are not contradictory. At this point, interpreting every dip as an opportunity risks overlooking the possibility that buying interest is becoming hesitant. I prefer to watch whether the next rebound has sustainability: if it quickly falls again, continue to watch more and act less; if it can gradually raise the low points of the pullback, then consider whether the recovery is stable.$QNT 24h -9.85%, but the most worth debating now is not the rise or fall, but which is lying between the 1-hour and 4-hour charts. The 1-hour is weak, RSI 29, while the 4-hour is strong, RSI 50. Short-term sentiment and the larger cycle structure are not aligned; this kind of position is most likely to mistake a rebound for a reversal, or a gear shift for a peak. Current price 264.83, about 1.59% away from the 1-hour support at 260.61, and about 17.29% away from resistance at 310.61. Here, there is no shortage of directional guesses, but what is lacking is the sustainability after the price truly breaks through the boundary. My observation line is very clear: only by standing back above and holding 310.61 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 260.61, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 176.63. If the upper side continues to be pressured, the 4-hour resistance at 373 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target. Would you first trust the 1-hour reversal, or wait for the 4-hour structure to confirm before changing your judgment? The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Vital signs are recovering, but the ECG alarm has already sounded. $SSV's 24-hour closing price rose 5.09%, looking like a patient just pushed back from shock to spontaneous circulation, blood pressure restored, complexion rosy—but those watching the monitor closely know that the short-term RSI has surged to 68.1. This is compensatory tachycardia, not recovery; the heart is overcompensating. The short-term Bollinger Bands have pushed the price to the 95% position, only 0.4% from the upper band; the mid-term Bollinger Bands are even more dangerous, with the price standing at 116%, directly piercing the upper band by 1.1%. This is not a healthy ventricle; this is critical dilation of the myocardial wall beyond its tension limit. Anyone who has undergone heart surgery knows: the faster the dilation, the stronger the contraction, with force proportional to speed. A sell signal has been triggered. I don’t see it as a mere tip; I see it as a lesion highlighted in intraoperative imaging. If the price still pushes up 3.4% to $2.26, that’s not a trend to chase; it’s a preoperative positioning needle, helping you mark the incision at the farthest point of dilation. 📉 Short: Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%) Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%) Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-8.5%) Stop Loss: 2.51 (-14.6%) The -8.5% to -9.5% range between Take Profit 1 and Take Profit 2 corresponds exactly to the mid-term Bollinger Bands’ lower band distance of 9.3%. This is the core lesion area I plan to clear; the first cut at $1.98, the second cut at $2.00, enclosing the area and completely stripping the overbought infused tissue. The stop loss is set at $2.51, acting as the surgical blockade. If the price truly expands upward another 14.6% from here, it means the compensatory mechanism is stronger than my preoperative diagnosis. Then immediately close the chest, reposition, and return to the ICU—no fighting the myocardium. But before that, I’m more inclined to consider this a ventricle undergoing overcompensation, not a healthy heart. Anesthesia is on, the incision is marked. Why did the PCE data trigger such a sharp move yesterday, only for the price to dump again just an hour later? Was that spike simply a liquidity grab above the highs? Thankfully, I secured profits on my long after the initial pump. Otherwise, those gains could’ve disappeared all over again. Lately, the market has been full of fake breakouts, seriously testing everyone’s patience and mindset. 😖📉📈#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #IranUSDealStandoff #TrumpRenamesAItoSI The key indicator this week, the 10-year US Treasury yield, continued to rise slightly, reaching above 5.3%. Initial jobless claims were 197,000, slightly below the expected 200,000, indicating employment remains relatively stable, which still supports expectations for interest rate hikes; the September ISM Manufacturing PMI, to be released later today, is expected at 55. In sector performance, software stocks continue to rebound strongly, with semiconductors and optical communications slightly stronger; in storage, MU's earnings report exceeded expectations (adjusted EPS 33.42 vs. expected 31.6), while SNDK was basically flat; crypto rebounded slightly, while defensive sectors XLP and XLV were weaker. US Treasury yields are still rising, with funds more concentrated in software and semiconductor stocks that had previously fallen more, driving the rebound direction. Overall, the market is temporarily neutral between bulls and bears.Your observation is very accurate, $82K is no longer a solid support; it is a *consumed support*. *$BTC $82K Why it has weakened:* - Multiple failed attempts to break through as you mentioned — in the past 7 days, it has been in the *$82K-$86K* range, testing below $82,500 four times. Each rebound was weaker than the last ($84.5K → $84K → $83.2K), indicating decreasing buying pressure. - *The data also doesn't add up:* Futures open interest is at *625,000 contracts, the lowest this year*, showing bulls are reluctant to leverage to defend $82K; spot demand has dropped by 170,000 coins in 30 days, and ETF inflows on Sunday were only $31 million, down 87%. The defense at $82K is not by big money but retail limit orders, *once broken, it will cascade down*. - The real strong support is *$78K-$80K*, where short-term holders' cost is above $73,300 plus the dense trading zone in August. *$ETH $2,650 / $2,580 You are looking at the more critical levels:* - Currently, $2,674 stuck just below $2,650 is weak, *$2,580 is the lifeline* — that is the September 12 low plus the 200-day moving average. Breaking $2,580 leads next to $2,450, a quick -10% drop. - ETH/BTC rate at 0.032 remains weak, indicating funds have not returned to altcoins. The market has been sideways for several days, but funds are starting to concentrate in a few strong directions: OKB remains stable above 121, LINK continues to hold 14.4, and WLD has gained nearly 8% in one day. The most obvious change now is that the market no longer rewards "cheap" assets but instead rewards coins that can continuously raise their lows. #Funds continue to concentrate in a weak market #Strong directions are being repriced $OKB is currently around 121.5, with 119–120 as the first support zone, and 122–123 still the core breakout area; once it firmly stands above 123, then look at 125–126. OKB's biggest advantage now is not elasticity but that its structure has not shown obvious loss of control during recent market pullbacks. $LINK is currently around 14.43, with 14–14.1 as the first pullback zone, and 14.5 above as the most immediate resistance; after a real volume breakout and stabilization, look at 14.8–15. Compared to most small coins, LINK's most notable feature this round is the continuous raising of lows and relatively restrained pullbacks. $WLD is currently around 0.538, having risen over 20% in the past 7 days; 0.51–0.52 is the first defense, with 0.55 above as resistance; after a breakout, look at 0.57–0.60. The gains are already significant, so it is more suitable to wait for a pullback confirmation here. This lineup: OKB waits at 123, LINK waits at 14.5, WLD holds 0.51. In a weak market, the real value is not the fastest rebound but that after each pullback, there are still funds willing to keep buying higher.A single pawn charging alone to the seventh rank without any backup—I've seen this kind of move too many times before. It looks like a threat, but in reality, it's a death warrant. $RON is exactly that pawn right now. The account value only rose 2.78% in 24 hours, but almost all of that increase was compressed into the most recent hourly candle—a classic lone advance. I checked the short-term chart: RSI has touched 70.3, standing right at the threshold of the overbought zone; even more critical is the Bollinger Bands position—the price is at 112% of the short-term channel, already 0.3% above the upper band. What does breaking above the upper band mean? It means every step of the offense is overextending its forces; the pawn chain has become disconnected from the main formation. Meanwhile, the mid-to-long-term RSI is only 40.5, showing the middle game hasn't kept pace—this is a compounded weakness of stacking pawns and hanging pawns. A true grandmaster doesn't focus on how fierce this move is, but rather asks who still has pieces to move twenty steps later. The mid-term Bollinger Bands sit at 54%, with upper and lower bands at +3.6% and +4.5% respectively—the center of the game hasn't shifted upward at all. The upper space is only 3.6%, while the lower side leaves a 4.5% vacuum. This odds structure itself is a free exchange opportunity handed to the black side. My move is clear: don't chase the high, wait for it to hit the wall on its own. Placing a short position 1.6% above the current price is its last feint, and also my move. There's a 2.8% buffer to the lower band, giving a time window to keep a reserve. 📉 Short: Entry: $0.05 (current price +1.6%) Take Profit 1: $0.05 (-4.6%) Take Profit 2: $0.05 (-4.3%) Stop Loss: $0.06 (+13.3%) The two take profit points almost overlap, showing I'm not greedy—this is a closing move in the endgame, locking in piece advantage before considering expansion. The stop loss is set wide at +13.3%, not out of fear but out of respect for a possible tactical combination from the opponent; however, the 30-point gap between the short-term 70.3 and long-term 40.5 RSI has already capped this counterattack. Why would a rally that can't even reverse the long-term equilibrium break through my blockade? I've seen too many players panic and exchange pieces hastily when the opponent's pawns are at the gate, only to expose their king on open lines. The secret to winning is never avoiding threats, but judging whether the threat can actually be realized. This wave of pawns from $RON cannot be realized.BTC has recently been oscillating within a narrow range. Looking back at several true bear-to-bull transition phases in history, after BTC rose above the 365D SMA, it basically did not effectively break below this line again during subsequent bull market corrections. The most notable exception was the March 2020 COVID-19 black swan event, when it briefly broke below but then recovered. Currently, the 365D SMA is around $79,873. Based solely on this historical pattern, it is quite difficult for a normal correction to effectively break below this line directly.Once bitten by a snake, ten years afraid of a well rope. Whenever I see coins with this kind of trend, I get scared out of my wits. This time, I won’t follow the crowd; I’ll go long against the trend. Since 80% of people are bearish, I’ll be part of the 20% who are bullish. $CAP surged 23.53% in the last 24 hours today, currently priced at 0.08. It had previously experienced a long, slow decline, falling so much that even its own mother wouldn’t recognize it. Now it suddenly rallies from a low position—doesn’t it feel just like what happened with ZEC and LAB before? Doesn’t it make you nervous, thinking it might crash the next second? I’m the one who’s been bitten by the snake before—previously stubbornly holding ZEC shorts, chasing longs on BICO and BEAT, losing so much I didn’t even have money for food, sleepless at night watching the K-line and crying. But this time, I seriously looked at the market data: the long-short ratio is 65% to 35%, with bulls slightly dominant, not extremely crowded. Retail investors are all scared, wanting to run at the slightest rise. It’s precisely when there’s so much doubt and no one dares to get on board that the main players quietly accumulate and prepare to make a move. So I won’t follow the crowd. When you’re scared, I’ll enter. I’m going in with a small long position, opening at 0.08046, with a stop loss set—just like buying a lottery ticket. My logic is simple: as long as it doesn’t break the previous low, there’s room for a rebound above; if it really takes off, I’ll be part of the 20% who profit. Losing a little is better than always being a coward. $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Whether a building will collapse is never judged by how good the renderings look, but by whether the load-bearing walls have been skimped on. $RE single-day -8.88%—to me, this is not panic, but an unreported structural load test—and it revealed a weak spot. A nearly 9% pullback in 24 hours, short-term RSI hit 28.9, a standard oversold signal; but the long-term RSI still stands at a neutral-strong 60.6. What does this combination mean? The main framework hasn’t deformed; it’s the exterior curtain wall that’s been torn open by wind pressure. What really makes me frown is the misalignment in the Bollinger Bands: the short-term price has already dropped to the 4% level, just 0.7% above the lower band—almost like the base is sitting directly on the support, with all the cushions completely compressed; meanwhile, the mid-term band is still hanging at 22%, leaving a full 9.8% gap from the lower band to the current price. The supports for these two periods are not at the same elevation, indicating a layout deviation, meaning the current support is temporary, not a foundational bearing platform. So my construction plan is not to chase the current price to pour concrete, but to wait for it to complete a stress release. The 0.48 line is the settlement joint I reserved based on structural reverse arching—5.5% below the current price, allowing floating chips to fall off naturally. The beam spans on the right have long been measured: 22.2% above is the first floor slab, and 31.1% above that is the roof topping. 📈 Long position: Entry: 0.48 (current price -5.5%) Take Profit 1: 0.62 (+22.2%) Take Profit 2: 0.66 (+31.1%) Stop Loss: 0.43 (-15.1%) The risk control logic is straightforward: from 0.48 down to 0.43, only a 15.1% rebar margin is left, which shows I have confidence in the geological survey of this building; but if 0.43 is breached, it means the load-bearing wall’s reinforcement has failed, the blueprint is void, and any reinforcement would be a waste of concrete. As for the upper 0.66, that is the topping level that fully utilizes the short-term oversold momentum and the long-term neutral structure—once reached, strip the formwork and leave, no lingering for secondary construction. The value of a project is never written in the renderings, but in the reinforcement ratio and foundation depth. $RE’s current volatility still matches construction, but remember: I only accept entry prices below 0.48; the current price looks to me like a rough shell with scaffolding not yet removed. If 0.43 fails, this building is a dangerous structure—not waiting for reinforcement, but direct controlled demolition. #strategyplaybookI first heard about it from a friend He said you could make money I didn't believe it Later I saw he changed his phone I got tempted Opened an account Bought some $BTC After buying, it dropped Dropped so much I kept cursing Later I sold Then it went up I was so mad I didn't check for days Then I got some $ETH Either I didn't understand it Or I was just too lazy to move Left it alone And surprisingly didn't lose In between, I also chased $SOL Bought at a high point Sold at a low point Looking back now it's funny Position was small Playing with spare money If I made money, I added a dish If I lost, I treated it as tuition No borrowing money No going all in No staying up late Just listen to others' calls If you lose, no one will bear it for you The market moves even at midnight You can't keep watching Sleeping well is better than anything There are many opportunities in this field But even more traps Survive first, then talk about other things Life goes on Coins are just coins#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 ZEC showed a rapid short-term downward trend, falling a total of 3.9% within four hours, with the lowest point reaching $1392, after previously touching $1449. During the same period, long positions in the contract market experienced concentrated liquidations, with the total long liquidation amount across major exchanges on the entire platform reaching $1.81 million within one hour, while short liquidations were only about $10,000, indicating concentrated selling pressure from longs. Currently, ZEC's overall 24-hour decline has narrowed to 1.72%, with a market capitalization of approximately $23.69 billion, ranking tenth in the cryptocurrency market by market cap. In the short term, after the previous concentrated exit of longs, the price is temporarily oscillating in the $1390-$1410 range, as market forces between bulls and bears are seeking a new balance. #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 【On-Chain Trading Update｜NEAR】 Monitored address 0xc3d1 opened a short position: ▪ Execution price: $4.97 ▪ Transaction amount this time: $137,637.11 ▪ Leverage: 10x$BTC I went short, bulls can come and curse now When the price rises and no one in the group is bearish, I actually get nervous. Funding rates have been positive, OI at new highs, K-line squeezing shorts every day, more and more people showing their long positions. This scene has been seen in every cycle. So I don't chase longs, I short BTC with a light position. It's not bearish on the future, just bearish on this wave of sentiment. Stop loss at the previous high, if broken then accept it; position is light, not gambling with life. Shorting is not a belief, just a trade. No target announced, watching as I go. If I profit, it's a market reward; if wrong, it's a discipline payment. Bulls don't rush, I might reverse tomorrow. What’s your current position size? Let's chat in the comments. #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 $BTC's current trend, frankly, is just sweeping people back and forth. You chase the long, it pulls back; you flip to short, it bounces again. It looks like a direction is about to emerge, but as soon as you enter, it reverses, tossing you around, the price doesn't move far, and your position gets worn down first. Let's look at the market first. It surged near 85500 but failed to hold, then retreated back to around 83800, indicating the selling pressure above hasn't been digested yet. For now, I see this as a weak consolidation, not rushing to bet on a one-sided rise. Watch the upper range at 84200–84500. If the rebound can't hold here, be cautious of another pullback. Want to move toward 85000–85500? First, this resistance needs to be reclaimed. On the downside, watch 83000–82800. Previous dips had support, but don't assume it's safe just because it held a few times. If broken, also guard against 82500. How to respond? 83850 is stuck in the middle; I prefer to wait. Near the upper resistance, if there's a spike up then a pullback, consider light short positions. If it holds above 84500, the bearish view needs adjustment, and stop losses shouldn't be delayed. No one can guarantee no losses. But with this kind of market, chasing less and making fewer trades often helps more than rushing to guess the direction. First, clarify your position and stop loss, don't get carried away and turn a consolidation trade into a long-term hold. $ETH $SOL #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved PCE data is so good, yet US Treasury yields still broke through 5.6%, which is actually bearish for btc! The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.3%, and the 30-year is still above 5.6%. More strikingly, the spread of CCC-rated corporate bonds relative to US Treasuries has exceeded 1000 basis points, the first time since the regional bank crisis in 2023. Such a large widening in junk bond spreads indicates the market is repricing credit risk for low-rated companies, with capital demanding higher risk compensation. Here's the interesting part. After the PCE release, market expectations for a rate hike in October clearly dropped, but long-end yields did not fall. The divergence between short-term cooling expectations and rising long-term rates continues. This shows the market is not worried about the immediate rate hike, but about longer-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and debt supply issues. This is the real pressure weighing on risk assets. For BTC, in the short term, it is stuck by this divergence. PCE is positive, BTC surged to 85598, then dropped back. Why? Because long-end rates are not falling, the valuation ceiling for non-yielding assets cannot rise. The strong resistance is between 85000 and 86000, short-term support is at 83000, if broken look to 82000. In terms of trading, don't chase highs. If long-end rates don't fall, the rebound height is limited. Wait for yields to show a clear direction, or for BTC to give a stabilization signal at support before considering entry. At this point, watching is safer than participating. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The crypto circle's mahjong table today, four people each playing their own game 😂 $BTC: News of power outages at Ethiopian mining companies and Sweden's recovery efforts are floating around, but BTC behaves like a seasoned veteran, dropping sharply in 15 minutes then slowly climbing back, only slightly down over 24 hours. [Suggestion]: Don't chase the highs or panic sell, set your orders and brew a cup of tea; it's mainly about "endurance" right now. $ETH: The same mining gossip, but ETH completely ignores it, slightly up over 24 hours, with the candlestick drawing a horizontal line between 2680 and 2720. [Suggestion]: Treat it like a stablecoin, invest regularly when idle, don't expect it to perform aerial stunts today. $SOL: Just broke below 117, then the project team announced a premium financing of 15 million to increase holdings, acting like a protective parent; a single bullish candle calmed the panic selling. [Suggestion]: Expect a short-term rebound, but don't get carried away; after all, even the parent’s money isn’t an unlimited bullet. $ZEC: ETF cools down, $30.25 million outflow, price hammered from 1450 down to around 1370, down over 3% in 24 hours, also green over seven days. Although the long-term gains still look like principal, today's situation is purely debt chasing. [Suggestion]: Don't rush to bottom fish, wait for the selling pressure to ease, or you might catch a flying knife. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CAP I placed a limit sell order at 0.08 If $CAP touches 0.08 without strong rejection and the 4-hour candlestick remains strong, I will consider stopping the loss and continue to watch until 0.1 That summer, with nothing to do, I came across a video about $BTC. It sounded like a mystery, but I was still curious. I secretly downloaded an app, put in a few hundred bucks, and bought in just before it dropped. It dropped so much I was scratching the walls. Later, I held on stubbornly without selling. After a while, it actually came back. I quickly sold it, and made enough for a barbecue. Later, I got a bit bolder, and tried $ETH. I held it and forgot about it. When I remembered and checked, it was even worse than saving in a bank. My biggest regret was chasing $SOL. Seeing it surge, I rushed in headfirst. But I ended up holding for half a year. After selling, it flew up again in just a few days. I was so mad I closed the app. Now I basically don’t watch it anymore. I occasionally open it to take a glance. The ups and downs don’t concern me. I only have that little spare money in hand. Losing it doesn’t hurt, winning doesn’t make me arrogant. This stuff really can’t be addictive. The more anxious you are, the more you lose. The more you watch, the more panicked you get. Don’t believe all the hype others shout. Take care of your own money. Live your life as it should be. Crypto is just a bit of fun #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 My position is just like $ETH, moving back and forth. It should end this consolidation cycle tomorrow or the day after. Try not to open medium to long positions guessing market ups and downs at the end of the consolidation. Profits are merely the market rewarding your wrong choices. You can be wrong and profitable countless times, but this is often the most dangerous time. When the market no longer favors you again, it could halve your account or cause a severe direct liquidation. The above doesn't matter; what matters is whether you still seek your mistakes, whether you continue to apply wrong trading logic, or if you still have confidence to face this market. For $ETH, the risk-reward ratio for both long and short positions is not good now; recommendation: Mainly long positions. 2650-2630 long - stop loss 2610 - take profit 2700/80%, clear at 2720. If it doesn't hold above 2700, 2715-2730 short - stop loss 2740 (if a solid bullish candle holds), take profit 2660/90%, clear at 2650. #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 As I said, you can short ZEC anytime; as long as you dare to short, you can profit. At this stage, just blindly go for $ZEC short, what’s there to fear? Its trend has already weakened so much; if you don’t short now, when will you? Wait for the trend to strengthen before shorting? Wait until it rises to 2000 before shorting? Now that it’s actually dropping, just short it. What does "going with the trend" mean? This is going with the trend. Look at the market: it’s been hammered down from 1697 to 1395, every rebound is tightly suppressed by the moving averages, each high is lower than the last, and volume is shrinking day by day. This isn’t a shakeout; this is a clear downtrend. Going long in this kind of movement is going against the trend and holding losing positions. Shorting is just pushing the boat with the current. I entered a short at 1405 this afternoon, and now I’m up 7.6%. This isn’t luck; it’s understanding the trend. In terms of operation, stop loss is set at 1450, target first at 1350, and if it breaks through, keep holding. Before the trend reverses, any rebound is an opportunity to add to your position. Those who go with the trend prosper; those who go against it perish. $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC I've always felt it's going to make a big move I've been doing high sell and low buy during the day But this position I'm going to hold tight today Because the BTC trend is up, I see 90,000, plus the Nasdaq dropped so much today while BTC remains very strong, indicating the main force's position exchange area is around 82,000 to 83,000. Just waiting for the Nasdaq to pull up a bit, BTC$ETH will definitely make a big move for you #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key $BTC $ETH $ZEC Gold and silver's biggest competitor right now might not be the bears at all, but the 5.6% yield on U.S. Treasuries! Don't just focus on the candlestick charts. The U.S. Treasury market is sending a very important signal: money is getting more expensive, and the survival space for risk assets is shrinking. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 5.3%, the 30-year yield exceeds 5.6%, pushing up financing costs across the entire market. Even more concerning is that the CCC-rated junk bond spread has broken through 1000 basis points, indicating that financing for low-rated companies is clearly tightening, with refinancing and default pressures increasing. High yields on U.S. Treasuries are unsustainable; U.S. Treasury expenditures have already exceeded one-fifth of fiscal revenue. The underlying logic for Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and silver hasn't changed—they are still viewed positively in the long term. Core PCE cooled to 3.0% YoY / 0.2% MoM, while September ADP showed +90K private jobs. Markets have already reduced expectations for an October rate hike, putting even more weight on the upcoming NFP report. For $BTC I see 3 possible reactions: Weak NFP → delayed hike narrative strengthens → potentially bullish for risk assets. Strong NFP + strong wages → hike expectations could return → BTC may face pressure. Mixed data → volatility first, direction later. #RateHikeDelayedJobsNext Brothers, take a risk and gamble! This time, don't follow the majority, go long against the trend! Looking at the market, $CAP is currently priced at 0.07849, up 21.11% in 24 hours, bulls are starting to gain strength. The long-short ratio is 21% bulls to 79% bears, bears make up nearly 80%. But the price is rising instead of falling, indicating bears are being squeezed, retail investors are betting on a drop, but the main force is quietly pushing the price up. Buy orders are piling up below the market at 0.07843 to 0.07847, with the largest single order at 3.90K. Although there are many sell orders above, they are all small retail orders that break easily with a surge. I entered long at 0.07862, 200 units, full position 3x leverage, mark price at 0.0785, moving close to the cost line. Stop loss set at 0.075, target first at 0.09, if broken then 0.10. Doing short-term trading, take a bite and run, never get attached to the fight $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Liquidation data is the easiest to create illusions because it only records those who have already fallen. When seeing a large number of $ETH long positions liquidated, the market often says the selling pressure has been released; when short positions are liquidated, some assert that the rally is just beginning. But liquidation data only counts positions that have been forcibly exited, excluding leverage still in the market, and does not mean new positions won’t immediately come in. After liquidation, it’s important to see if the price can break away from the original dense trading zone. If large long positions are liquidated and the spot price quickly recovers the decline, it indicates support at the low level; if the rebound lacks volume, the remaining selling pressure may not be over. The same applies to short liquidations—whether the price can hold after a surge is more important than the liquidation amount. Public liquidation statistics are also incomplete. Different platforms disclose data differently; some positions may be reduced early or taken over by risk engines and may not appear on the same report. Taking a single number as the whole market truth often overestimates the degree of deleveraging completed in one move. The first round of spot trades after liquidation usually deserves more attention than the huge numbers on liquidation lists and is closer to the real absorption. Liquidation is a funeral for past positions, not a verdict on future direction.📊 BTC ETF: Continued Net Inflows on Monday and Tuesday The US spot BTC ETFs continued to see capital inflows in the first two days of this week: Monday (9/28): Net inflow of approximately $31 million * IBIT: +$54.8 million * FBTC: -$10.9 million * GBTC: -$23.2 million Tuesday (9/29): Net inflow of approximately $66.2 million * IBIT: +$51.1 million * ARKB: +$33.2 million * BITB: -$18.1 million Total net inflow over two days is about $97.2 million. Although net inflows remain positive, compared to last week's hundreds of millions or even nearly $1 billion in a single day, ETF buying has clearly cooled down. What is more noteworthy now: funds have not withdrawn, but incremental inflows have significantly slowed. If net inflows return to hundreds of millions per day, it would provide stronger capital support for BTC; conversely, if it turns into sustained net outflows, short-term pressure should be watched out for. #BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #IBIT #Crypto#Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key moment. When the PCE data came out, I really thought the bull market was back. BTC surged in one move to 85,600, and the group chat was full of "breakthrough" and "adding positions," FOMO took over instantly. But as soon as US Treasury yields rebounded, the market turned around in an instant, and all the gains just now were given back. Watching my account at midnight, my heartbeat was faster than the candlesticks—no main upward wave after the good news, just a long upper shadow. Reviewing this trade, it’s really frustrating. BTC: unrealized loss of 3218.8U SOL: unrealized loss of 265.99U, 80.7. One is stuck at a high position, the other is hanging by a thread. The harshest thing about this market isn’t a one-way move, but a fake breakout followed by a reversal washout. High leverage in a choppy market is a meat grinder; even if the direction is right, you can’t withstand the spikes. Surviving is more important than how much you earn. $BTC #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 More than 190 stock tokens, all packed into one wallet for buying and selling. I was stunned when I first saw this news. Before, if you wanted to trade US stocks, you had to open an overseas brokerage account, exchange currency, wait for funds to clear — the whole process was exhausting. Now Robinhood Wallet directly connects to a quoting system, with market makers competing to give you quotes, and you use whoever is cheaper. Simply put, stocks have been turned into something you can freely trade on-chain. But don’t get too excited just yet. This is Robinhood, not just any small project; they have a legitimate brokerage license backing them. The real issue isn’t technology, it’s whether regulators will accept it. Today they offer 190 types, but whether more can be added tomorrow depends on how compliance progresses. As someone new to the space, my first reaction to this news is excitement, and my second is — what does this have to do with me? Do you really think putting stocks on-chain is opening the door for retail investors, or paving the way for institutions? #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 #Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $ZEC $UNI around $9.09 — is the backend quietly changing the fee game? The September launch of StablePairHook introduced dynamic fees for stable pairs based on each trade’s price deviation. The goal is simple: avoid fees that are too low for arbitrage extraction, while keeping them low enough to attract real volume. If this mechanism helps more value remain in liquidity pools, it could be an interesting improvement for LPs.#DailyOrbit #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5.6%, the highest since 2002. This signal from the U.S. Treasury is more worth watching than BTC's price fluctuations. The rise in the 30-year yield indicates growing market concerns about long-term inflation and debt supply. Meanwhile, short-term expectations for a rate hike in October have dropped from 70% to 50%, showing the market is less fearful of the upcoming rate hike. U.S. Treasury data shows hedge funds hold about $2 trillion in cash U.S. Treasuries, a record high. If bond market volatility further expands, it could significantly amplify liquidity shocks across the entire financial market. #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $BTC $ETH Brothers, today's market is absolutely insane! Bitcoin surged to 85,500 at midnight, then immediately crashed back to 83,000. $SOL dropped to 117.79, SUI and UNI fell across the board, and altcoins were completely bloodied. Where's the good news? August PCE was clearly below expectations, Goldman Sachs even pushed rate hikes to December, and the probability of a rate hike in October plummeted from 51% to 37%. So what happened? US Treasury yields still hit a 2019 high, and big money simply isn't buying it. What's even more painful is that SOL had a net ETF outflow of 11.1 million today, Alameda unlocked 200,000 SOL ready to dump anytime. The Bitget hack involving 388 million hasn't even been digested yet, and at the end of the month, there are two big bombs: FOMC and Mt.Gox. What a damn terrible market this is #BTC #SOL #FOMC #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Before 10 o'clock, check the Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows — On September 30 Eastern Time, the total net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was about $149 million. Almost no products had net purchases that day among the twelve products, breaking the nine-day consecutive inflow momentum. Fidelity FBTC withdrew about $126 million in a single day, Bitwise BITB followed with about $13.63 million, and BlackRock IBIT also had a slight net outflow of about $9.48 million. The historical cumulative net inflow still stands at about $57.5 billion, with a total net asset value of about $108 billion. Spot is currently around 84,000, slightly weaker compared to Shanghai's opening at 84,138 at midnight, with a daily high of 84,739 and a daily low of 83,169; the 24-hour spot trading volume is about $500 million. The institutional side just cut off the consecutive inflows, but the market did not collapse — $ETH spot is around 2,700. In the short term, watch whether the pressure around 84,138/84,739 can hold; if it falls back to 83,618 (UTC0 open)/83,169, don't try to hold on stubbornly. $BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #ETFOutflow #CapitalFlow #DataAnalysis #RiskWarning This does not constitute investment advice; the market has risks, and caution is needed when entering the market. #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $ETH $BTC BTC spot ETFs have attracted funds for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.08 billion. The numbers look good, but I am more concerned that the speed of capital inflow is cooling down. 1️⃣ On September 21, the single-day inflow was nearly $1 billion, but by September 29 it dropped to about $66.19 million. Buying interest remains, but the willingness to chase prices has clearly weakened. 2️⃣ ETH spot ETFs ended a 7-day streak of inflows, with a single-day outflow of about $2.81 million. This scale is very small, so it’s too early to talk about a large-scale capital withdrawal. 3️⃣ BTC and ETH are diverging in the short term, indicating institutional funds are becoming more selective. In times of market hesitation, BTC remains the preferred allocation. My judgment is: continuous inflows indicate there is capital supporting the bottom, but the slowing pace also reminds us that the market is not strong enough yet to chase blindly. What to watch next is whether BTC funds can accelerate again and whether ETH outflows will continue to expand. 🔥 50x Short on $TAO — Held for 53 Minutes and Lost 55% Brothers, Er Gou paid another round of tuition last night. Seeing $TAO around 306, I thought the upside was running out and opened a 50x leveraged short. The result? ⏱️ Held for just 53 minutes 📉 Closed around 1 AM 💸 -55% In other words, I stayed up late watching the market just to become the market maker’s midnight snack. 😂 Why did I short? Because the chart genuinely looked exhausted. On the 4H chart, TAO has been stuck between roughlyLong and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes $CT short positions have a relatively high unit holding cost over time: current 4-hour rate -0.1266%, price -1.77%, open interest -2.3%. The decline is accompanied by position reduction, with no new positions added; holding shorts past settlement at the current rate means funding fees will lower the breakeven price. $MON short positions have a relatively high unit holding cost over time: current 4-hour rate -0.0183%, price -0.55%, open interest basically unchanged. The decline is not accompanied by significant position increases; holding shorts past settlement at the current rate means funding fees will lower the breakeven price.
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