Orbit Post Sitemap
The most ruthless move by market makers: turning short positions into “smart money”
The harshest harvest by market makers is often not pumping the price, but disguising their own short positions as the smart money everyone wants to follow.
Short positions dominate the leaderboard year-round, all targets are altcoins, with single trades often tens of thousands of dollars. Retail investors see this and eagerly follow the shorts. But the key issue is: the liquidation price is always set above the highest point the market maker is actually willing to push to. He’s not afraid of shorts because he knows where the ceiling is.
Followers can’t withstand the floating losses or the psychological pressure of “smart money is still short,” leading them to cut positions midway or even reverse to chase shorts. The public short positions are bait; the leverage on the shorts is the real fuel. $BTC $ETH$WDC $STX also discuss the impact of Toshiba's capacity expansion on these two assets. First, from a timing perspective, there are many uncertainties two years from now, and the market has enough time to absorb the hype. Second, the market overlooks that the AI market demand mainly comes from the United States; other parts of the world only include us, and we are already self-sufficient. Looking at the US market, has everyone forgotten the Plaza Accord? Would Trump allow Japan to seize the market? A single tariff could keep Toshiba out. So, from these two points, the market is overreacting, and it cannot be ruled out that someone is deliberately shorting to profit!The frequent new highs in U.S. Treasury yields continue to pressure risk appetite, with high-volatility assets like BSB taking the brunt. I tend to believe that if long-term rates do not fall back, the rebound is merely a correction rather than a reversal.
From a liquidity perspective, after a 3.1% drop in 24 hours, the price is 0.09718, with a trading volume of only 1.02 million. Buy orders stand at 2204 against sell orders at 2306, with a strength ratio of 0.96, slightly favoring sellers. The funding rate of 0.0050% is relatively neutral, and the open interest of 11.338 million coin-margined contracts remains high, indicating that longs have not significantly withdrawn and shorts have not increased, reflecting a slow decline amid a stock game. There is a rebound demand 2.62% above the 1-hour low, but the 4-hour chart is 14.72% below the high, with heavy resistance overhead.
In terms of trading, if the price stabilizes after testing 0.09412, a light long position can be tried with a stop loss at 0.09205 and a target of 0.10063; if the rebound is blocked at 0.10077, try shorting with a stop loss at 0.10284 and a target of 0.09456. Single position size should not exceed 5%, and exit immediately if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$BSB#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BSB U.S. Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved, and risk appetite pressure is also transmitted to CL. I tend to be short-term bearish, with limited rebound strength.
Current price 91.23, down 1.9% in 24h, volatility range 88.3 to 93.22, turnover 17.75 million. The 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend; although the 1-hour chart shows a rebound, it has fallen back 3.24% from the high. Funding rate is zero, open interest 352,000, sentiment is cautious; the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 1.11, there is support at the low level but selling pressure above has not dissipated.
Strategy: lightly short near 92.85 on the rebound, stop loss at 94.15, target 89.45; if it pulls back to 88.55 and stabilizes, consider a short-term long position, stop loss at 87.35, target 90.85. Keep position size within 10%, strictly stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$CL#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $CL $AXS Damn it! This AXS market is giving me a headache. Around 1.2504, the funds are piled up like a fortress; sell orders get canceled and then re-posted repeatedly. Is the manipulator here putting on a double act? 🔥
Looking at the candlestick, the price dipped to 1.24 and immediately pulled back, clearly not wanting to let people get in. The volume is being held back, not released. This pattern either means a big move is coming or it's just shaking out retail traders until they doubt everything.
My plan is simple: lightly position at 1.2504, set stop loss at 1.21. If it breaks, accept it; if not, it’s a move up. Don’t go heavy, don’t hold stubbornly, that’s discipline. 💡
If you want to join me in waiting for this hidden move, click the token card below to see the real-time market. Don’t ask questions, just watch it yourself.
👇👇👇$NIGHT is biased towards the long side. Open interest surged 53% in one day, with price rising in sync, indicating new longs are chasing prices rather than shorts suppressing them. The amount liquidated on short positions is clearly greater than on longs. Shorts are being squeezed out during the rally, with longs taking over; the driving force comes from genuine position increases, not just short covering. The fee rate has fallen from 0.0050% to 0.0012%, which should be viewed only as background information. The key lies in the position of these new longs. Open interest has been steadily accumulated between 0.03785 and 0.05031, with stop losses naturally placed below. As long as the price holds at a high level, these stops won’t be triggered, and the upward structure is supported by this batch of chips. Conditions for a bearish reversal: if the price fails to break above 0.05031 and then falls back while open interest continues to rise. A price drop accompanied by increased open interest indicates new shorts are starting to suppress prices, and the stop losses of longs below will be hit in clusters. Before that, the RSI at 79 on the chart indicates momentum is still continuing, not a top signal.Big Brother Maji has made a move again. A position of 161 million, with the two main positions in $BTC and $ETH consuming the vast majority of the chips, and the small $HYPE position is basically just an emotional order thrown out there—if it profits, it's a bonus; if it loses, no regrets.
This person really understands position sizing.
$BTC 40x full position long, 546 coins, average price 84548.9, liquidation price 75542. When the non-farm payroll data came out yesterday, 29,000 new jobs were added, while the expectation was 90,000, not even reaching the lower bound of expectations. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped sharply from 68% to below 25%, and the market instantly shifted into a rate cut trading mode. But $BTC didn’t take off as many expected—it surged to 85,000 but was pushed back down. The 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded to 5.28%, and the buying pressure couldn’t hold. Maji’s opening price of 84548 basically stepped on that spike; now the price is hovering around 84,000. With 40x leverage, a 0.5% price fluctuation means a 20% position fluctuation. The kind of up-and-down spikes seen around the non-farm data release could easily cause millions of dollars underwater with just one spike. But his liquidation price is 75542, nearly 9,000 dollars away from the current price, providing a thick enough buffer—this is a deliberate reserve for volatile market conditions.
$ETH 25x full position long, 34,000 coins, is the real core position. The liquidation line is at 2550. Currently, $ETH is moving sideways around 2700, with the Bollinger upper band at 2853 and lower support around 2630-2640. This position is not just a directional bet—$ETH’s total staked amount on the network has surpassed 43 million coins, accounting for over 35% of total supply, and the circulating supply is continuously tightening. Citi just raised ETH’s target price from 2240 to 3028 dollars, a 35% increase. Maji places the largest volume of chips on $ETH, betting on the dual logic of tightening liquidity and fundamentals. The liquidation line at 2550 corresponds to the long-term holding cost zone for $ETH; as long as no extreme black swan event occurs, the probability of this level being hit is very low.
$HYPE is a small position, riding on sector sentiment. HYPE is currently oscillating between 88-90 dollars. Multicoin Capital just dumped 8.4 million dollars, so short-term selling pressure is significant. Maji treats it as an emotional position, not expecting it to decide the fate of the account. This approach itself is very smart—never throw your core chips to fringe assets during major market moves.
But honestly, the most worth pondering about this layout is not the position structure, but the macro logic he is betting on.
Non-farm payrolls collapsed, rate hike expectations cooled, and US stocks rose in response. According to traditional scripts, this combination should be very bullish for risk assets. But $BTC’s reaction is contradictory—short-term spikes are immediately crushed. Glassnode characterizes this rebound as "premature and speculative," with the core issue being a lack of volume. Even more bizarre, $BTC spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of 103 million dollars on October 1, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone contributing 196 million, but Fidelity’s FBTC had a net outflow exceeding 60 million. Capital at the ETF level is split; some are bottom-fishing while others are withdrawing, and the market has not formed a unified force.
Looking at the Federal Reserve internally, Kashkari says "one more rate hike this year, and one more in 2027," but Vice Chair Williams bluntly states "no need to rush the next move," and market pricing dropped from a 70% rate hike probability to below 30%. Two key decision-makers, two directions, and the market’s rate expectations are being pulled apart fiercely. In this environment, $BTC stuck in the 83000-85000 range grinding back and forth is not without reason.
My judgment is: Maji is not betting on short-term direction, but on volatility itself.
The liquidation price of the 40x $BTC long at 75542 corresponds to a support level just below the key 77200 dollar defense line given by Glassnode. If after the non-farm data the market first kills leverage and pushes $BTC down to 79000-80000 to wash out some longs, his position will survive just fine, and when the rate cut trade truly starts, he will ride the main upward wave. The same logic applies to $ETH’s 2550 liquidation line, corresponding to the second defense line after the first support at 2630-2640 is broken, providing enough room for a dip.
But this strategy has a fatal premise—you must have unlimited bullets to add to your position.
Maji’s most ruthless aspect is never his opening price, but that he has reserves. If his position is trapped, he can add; if the liquidation price is near, he can move margin; in extreme market conditions, he can endure floating losses that others cannot. Ordinary people who copy his 40x leverage would panic with just a 1% adverse price move, lacking the mindset and capital to hold on.
So don’t be fooled by numbers like "opening price 84548" or "liquidation price 75542." These numbers are results, not the strategy. The core of the strategy is: at the right macro inflection point, using leverage he can bear, he bets on what is highly likely to happen. $ETH’s fundamental tightening is real, staking rates keep rising, and although ETFs have short-term outflows, big banks like Citi are clearly raising target prices. The macro environment for $BTC is also shifting—non-farm payrolls collapsed, rate hike expectations dropped, but the market hasn’t fully digested this change yet.
But one thing must be made clear: $BTC’s spike and crash after the non-farm data is itself a warning signal. The bullish news came but the price couldn’t rise, indicating heavy selling pressure above. The 85000-85500 range is where large volumes are being offloaded. Maji’s $BTC position opened at 84548, right at the price before this spike and fall, meaning he bought near a short-term high. He has 40x leverage’s margin for error, but if you follow him in, every drop of $BTC toward 80000 will be torture for you.
What’s truly worth learning is not his position size, but his logic chain: macro inflection first, fundamental tightening next, technical entry points, and leverage controlled within what he can bear.
Finally, a frank word. In the current market, the altcoin season index is approaching 75, and capital is spreading from $BTC to strong narrative assets, but this doesn’t mean you can leverage recklessly. The base logic for $BTC and $ETH is clear—one plays macro shifts with elasticity, the other plays circulating supply tightening with certainty. Positions outside of these are emotional gambles; winning is luck, losing is tuition.
Maji has reserves, do you? If not, don’t drool over 40x leverage. First, reduce your position to a level where you can sleep at night.Triple signals intertwine as capital searches for narrative anchors in the cracks
The market is mildly rebounding, but behind BTC, ETH, and ZEC lie three distinctly different logic lines.
$BTC: The covert push of sovereign compliance. The IMF approved a $139 million grant to El Salvador, despite the country previously violating the agreement to increase Bitcoin holdings. This signal is far more complex than it appears on the surface—international financial institutions are passively adapting to the reality of sovereign nations holding BTC. Macro pressures remain, but the legitimacy of the underlying asset is being reinforced step by step. This is a structural long-term support.
$ETH: Ecological friction suppresses short-term buying. A vulnerability in the Aave V3 module caused a loss of about 114 ETH, a small amount, but it once again exposed the fragility of DeFi composability. The upgrade expectations have yet to be fulfilled, and security flaws have become a ceiling for buying. ETH can only passively follow the market, lacking the fuel for an independent breakout.
$ZEC: Institutional calls ignite the privacy narrative. Variant Fund's investment partner publicly stated that the market bottom may have appeared in July, and the institutional-level "bottom confirmation" has given capital the confidence to go long on the privacy sector. As the leader, ZEC, with its independent narrative, is absorbing safe-haven funds in a volatile market and leading the rally against the trend.
The three logics are clear: BTC is supported by compliance, ETH is dragged down by security frictions, and ZEC benefits from institutional expectations and privacy premiums. The market lacks systemic momentum, so capital can only engage in guerrilla tactics within the structure. Heavy positions are unwise at this time; waiting for a macro breakthrough is safer.$OKB/USDT 1H
The rebound from 119.65 is slowing near the first resistance cluster.
Price recovered MA5 and MA10, but MA20 at 121.46 still controls the broader intraday structure.
Entry: 120.55–120.75
SL: 119.55
TP1: 121.45
TP2: 122.25
TP3: 122.90
Holding 120.65 keeps the recovery alive. A rejection below it could send OKB back toward the session low.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #USTreasuryYieldsSurge AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company, reigniting the computing power narrative. MMT, as an AI-related token, should benefit, but it still fell 5.2% today, indicating that funds have not bought in. Overall judgment: a short-term technical rebound is expected, but a trend reversal is still early.
Current price 0.1804, 24h high and low points 0.1921 and 0.1763, only 2.21% above the 1-hour low, 45% above the 4-hour low. The mid-term uptrend remains intact but the resistance at 0.1921 is obvious. Buy orders 17,000 vs. sell orders 17,000, ratio 1.02 slightly bullish, turnover 642,000 is relatively light, funding rate 0.005%, open interest 8,552,000, sentiment cautiously warm.
Strategy 1: Buy on a pullback to 0.1782, stop loss at 0.1738, target 0.1907; Strategy 2: If volume breaks through 0.1921, chase more, stop loss at 0.1863, target 0.2047. Position control within 20%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$MMT#OpenAI plans $1.4 trillion valuation to raise $30 billion
#AMD plans to invest $8.2 billion to acquire an AI company $MMT 💧 LIQUIDITY QUALITY TEST
$ETH: spread 0.000% | top-5 bid depth $270.8K
$BNB: spread 0.013% | top-5 bid depth $209.2K
$GIGGLE: spread 0.027% | top-5 bid depth $1.5K
$ETH has the deepest visible bid support in this snapshot. Which coin would you trust in fast volatility?
$ETH $BNB $GIGGLE
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ NFA — manage risk and DYOR.💧 Liquidity Quality Test
$ETH: Spread 0.000% | Top 5 Buy Order Depth $270.8K
$BNB: Spread 0.013% | Top 5 Buy Order Depth $209.2K
$GIGGLE: Spread 0.027% | Top 5 Buy Order Depth $1.5K
$ETH has the deepest visible buy order support in this snapshot. Facing rapid fluctuations, which coin would you trust?
$ETH $BNB $GIGGLE
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ Not financial advice — please manage risk and do your own research. #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 The SEC plans to establish a custody framework for crypto assets.
The SEC has proposed new regulations to create a dedicated framework for registered investment advisers and regulated funds to custody crypto assets, allowing self-custody under certain conditions and the use of state trust companies and other custody arrangements. The market interprets this as largely positive, directly benefiting the compliant allocation paths for mainstream assets like BTC and ETH. The key point of this move is not to immediately set a market direction but to first push forward the most sensitive custody barriers for institutional advisers and funds entering crypto investments. Source: SEC.
If the subsequent rules are implemented, the compliance path for traditional funds designing crypto strategies will be smoother; if during the 60-day comment period large asset managers, custodians, and trading platforms provide concentrated feedback, narratives related to compliant exchanges, custody, and ETFs will also more easily attract capital attention. Would you rather first see the changes in institutional allocations after the rules are implemented, or first see the market feedback during the comment period?
#BTC #ETH$ETH really came like a spring breeze overnight, with thousands of pear blossoms blooming everywhere
I admit, you made me feel unfamiliar with Ethereum, waking up to find that ETH actually crashed like a waterfall.
If I had known, I wouldn't have run yesterday; the non-farm night scared me to tears, I was really afraid of getting liquidated.
Last night when I shorted ETH again, I was planning to go all in, but I was a bit too cautious.
Otherwise, this wave would have really made me a fortune
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH Weekend sharing of BTC analysis:
From the perspective of the daily chart, the weekly upward move starting from 57700 on July 1st most likely ended its first daily-level upward move at 87300.
If you analyze from the perspective of the central pivot, the rally on September 21st is a relatively standard central pivot departure move. But this requires the price to further drop below 81500 to confirm.
From the perspective of Chan theory:
57700-66800 is the first 4H-level upward move;
66800-62100 is the first 4H-level downward move;
62100-82200 is the second 4H-level upward move;
82200-74800 is the second 4H-level downward move;
74800-87300 is the third 4H-level upward move.
Since the increase is less than 20,000 points, this third 4H-level upward move has already diverged from the second move. Therefore, from a technical perspective, it is highly likely that a daily-level downward correction will start from 87300.
This correction will normally reach between 69000-72000; according to Fibonacci levels, it would be between 72000-76000. However, in actual operation, we should avoid presetting the price too low, since this is the early stage of a bull market. From a larger cycle perspective, a few thousand points difference is not significant. Around 75000 is a good position for BTC from a large cycle perspective. Setting 70000-75000 as the bottom of this round of correction is more appropriate.
If you miss the weekly second buy opportunity, the next good chance will be next year. Also, this "weekly second buy" position roughly corresponds to 19500 in March 2023, after which BTC has not fallen below 20000.
After the weekly second buy is completed (likely around the midterm elections), BTC will continue to move upward in a daily-level upward move. This daily-level upward move will continue until after the Lunar New Year, with a target around 93000/94000. At that point, the first weekly-level upward move of this bull market will be considered complete.
Of course, this projection is somewhat rigid. The first weekly-level upward move of the 2022-2025 bull market lasted 8 months, from 15500 in November 2022 to 31800 in July 2023. According to this projection, the first weekly-level upward move of this bull market should last until February/March next year. Historically, BTC performs well during the Lunar New Year period (except in 2025), so this projection is statistically reasonable. However, a correction needs to happen first.
Finally, I hope all Chinese investors make big profits and sharply cut foreign investors' losses.#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings, market risk appetite warming up, KAITO as a popular ecological target has not strengthened accordingly. I judge that the short-term is still in a consolidation phase, with direction choice approaching.
Current price 0.334, down 3.8% in 24 hours, the high of 0.3599 failed to hold, the low of 0.317 temporarily acting as a buffer. The one-hour and four-hour trends are upward, but have retraced 7.05% and 9.36% from the highs, with a turnover of 30.733 million showing insufficient willingness to chase highs. The order book's top 10 buy-sell ratio is 0.91, with selling pressure slightly dominant, funding rate at 0.0043% is relatively neutral, and 12.005 million coin-margined positions suggest bulls and bears are still in a stalemate.
Strategically, if it pulls back to 0.3215 and stabilizes, a light long position can be tried, stop loss at 0.3105, target 0.3565; if it breaks through 0.3515 with volume, then add positions following the trend, stop loss at 0.3345, target 0.3785. Position control within 20%, decisively exit if stop loss is broken.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$KAITO#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings
#Strategy再购BTC, multiple financial institutions simultaneously increasing holdings $KAITO "Three Coin Duty Logs: Some Guard the Gate, Some Buffer, Some Probe"
$BTC is pacing between 84,500 and 85,800 today, up over 1% in 24 hours. It’s not rushing to charge, just treating 85,000 as a threshold to tread back and forth, with buy orders supporting and sell orders not breaking through. Like a seasoned goalkeeper: few moves, but excellent positioning. In the short term, 85,000 remains the emotional watershed—holding it means stability, losing it means chaos.
$ETH is slightly shifting above 2,700, up only 0.4%–0.9% in 24 hours, like a system updating in the background: Glamsterdam, Layer2, and self-custody rules are all queued up. The long-term narrative remains intact, but the short-term direction is still loading. Its dilemma is: a solid base but not yet fully fired up.
$SOL is bouncing between $118 and $119, up 0.5%–1.5% in 24 hours. 120 is the door, 116 is the wall; it’s repeatedly hopping at the threshold with low volume but plenty of action. The resilience of a young coin lies here: quick rebounds and quick pullbacks, so buckle up if you chase it.
In a nutshell: BTC guards 85,000, ETH awaits catalysts, SOL tests 120. The three brothers haven’t clocked out yet, but today’s KPI is to avoid crashing first.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Rate hike delay ≠ shift to easing, non-farm payrolls are the starting gun
Underlying logic:
The market pushing back the timing of the Fed rate hike does not mean tightening is canceled. Short-term liquidity pressure is temporarily eased, but the high interest rate environment remains. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will be repriced with non-farm payrolls; BTC and ETH are highly sensitive to real interest rates.
$BTC:
With high Beta characteristics, the rate hike delay alleviates short-selling pressure, possibly slowing the downtrend; but a trend reversal requires non-farm confirmation of cooling employment and a substantial drop in yields.
ETH:
More elastic, its rebound usually outperforms BTC; if non-farm payrolls are strong, the pullback will also be deeper.
Three scenarios:
① Non-farm weaker than expected: rate hikes continue to be delayed, yields fall, dollar weakens, BTC and ETH rise, with ETH leading.
② Non-farm far exceeds expectations: rate hike expectations reverse, yields surge, rebound ends, BTC and ETH fall, ETH suffers more.
③ Non-farm meets expectations: status quo maintained, range-bound, waiting for the next inflation data.
Key reminder:
Rate hikes are only postponed, not canceled; for a rebound, watch ETH; for stability, choose BTC; the non-farm payroll release is the real market trigger.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC $ETH On the weekly chart of $ETH, a clean symmetrical recovery pattern has appeared. This is textbook-level — when you see two legs of equal length at a low point, you first measure the initial impulse wave and then project from the consolidation.
The next structural target is at $3,344, which perfectly aligns with the 618 Fibonacci extension level. This implies a +22.5% rise from the current level.
Why this matters: symmetrical patterns give you clear risk/reward. You know where the structure will fail (below the consolidation low), and you know where your measured move projects to (618). This is not guesswork — the structure is telling you where the price wants to go.
Watch for continuation above the recent swing high to confirm this leg is still valid. If we break the symmetry and break structure below the consolidation, this setup fails and you need to reassess.
This is how to read candlestick charts like a textbook — measure, project, confirm, and always be clear on your invalidation criteria. ETF funds are quietly flowing back, but some are packing their bags
Let's first look at an interesting comparison. Data released on October 1: $DOGE spot ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with $3.71 million entering in September, the highest monthly amount since January this year; as of the week ending September 25, a single week saw $2.89 million, also a record. Money is flowing back steadily.
Who is pocketing the money? Mainly Grayscale, with a cumulative net inflow of $16.34 million; the three ETFs combined have net assets of $16.66 million. Honestly, the pool isn't large, but the rhythm of three consecutive weeks indicates one thing: there are funds treating Dogecoin as a serious allocation, not just coming in to play briefly and leave.
Interestingly, Bitwise is doing the opposite. Their BWOW stopped trading on October 14 and liquidated on the 22nd to distribute funds. It had the lowest fees in the market, was listed for ten months, but on most days had no transactions at all, and in the end, they had to accept losses and exit.
How to interpret this? My reading: it's not that the sector is failing, but the product is. From the same pool, Grayscale is entering while Bitwise is exiting; capital votes with its feet, casting votes for the stronger one. Weak products are cleared out, and shares concentrate at the top, which is actually good for this category—after mid-October, only two remain, and it's clear who is truly buying with real money. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC October 3】
Today's focus is not on chasing the rally, but on whether 83000 can hold. Due to the search limit, only 2 verifiable BTC viewpoints within 24 hours are included, no old posts.
Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) original view: BTC still respects the horizontal range; breaking below the green zone will weaken it, but upward momentum remains above the green zone. Editor's analysis: Spot around 84540, still above its BTCUSDT daily Range High, but not far from the intraday low of 83888.
Cheds (@BigCheds) original view: BTC 4H outside bar pushed to the middle of the channel, local key support at 83000. Editor's analysis: This coincides with Daan's green zone.
Main scenario: Consolidate and recover above 83000, then after firmly standing above 85500–86000, look towards 87220; otherwise, do not chase. If it stays below 85000 for a long time, first expect bulls to reduce leverage rather than quickly add positions. Watch for volume expansion before expecting continuation. Invalidation: breaking below 83000 and failing to quickly recover. Risks: funding rate is positive, open interest is not low, high leverage is easily squeezed, watch out for slippage and fees. Not a copy-trading recommendation. Are you more focused on support or breakout?
#BTC #ETH #OKBMany people ask me why I short $ETH instead of just focusing on $BTC. The answer is two words: pick the weak. Today, BTC was pressed down from 87,000 to just over 84,000, dropping less than half a percent; ETH directly fell from 2,770 to below 2,670, showing a clear weakness. The leg that leads in a bull market and falls first in a bear market is always the most comfortable to short. I don't predict who will crash first; I just follow the strength ranking to take sides—the strong ones are left to the bulls to hold, the weak ones are handed to the shorts to collect. This is not about being bearish on the whole world, but about only taking the side with the highest win rate in the same wave. Look at this position card below for yourselves, see how the returns go, the data won't lie for me.NVIDIA adds $150 billion buyback, risk appetite spills over, SLX as a high-beta small-cap coin, I tend to be short-term bullish but not advisable to chase highs. The four-hour chart is still in an uptrend structure, but the one-hour chart has weakened, volume has not expanded, this looks more like consolidation rather than a trend start. The buy-sell ratio of 0.81 indicates sellers temporarily dominate, 0.06164 is the key intraday support, 0.06545 is the resistance above, the funding rate of only 0.0050% shows mild bullish sentiment, with 28.76 million positions not showing frenzy. Strategy-wise, buy on pullback at 0.06215 with stop loss at 0.06085, target 0.06505; if volume breaks above 0.06505, can lightly chase long, stop loss at 0.06375, target 0.06845. Position control within 20%, decisively exit if stop loss is hit.
——For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading.——
$SLX#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $SLX NVIDIA's additional $150 billion buyback boosts risk appetite in tech stocks but has not transmitted to ETH, with funds still on the sidelines. I judge the short-term trend to be weak and oscillating, with a lack of rebound strength.
Current price 2666.13, down 1.4% in 24 hours, trading volume only 33.678 million, volume shrinking. The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show an upward structure, but the price has fallen 3.91% from the high, and the order book buy/sell ratio is 0.62, indicating obvious selling pressure. The funding rate of 0.0007% is relatively neutral, with open interest at 596,000 showing no panic. The key support is at 2646.9 below, and resistance is at 2777.7 above.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 2648.5, stop loss at 2632.7, target 2708.3; if the rebound is blocked at 2725.6, short for a quick trade, stop loss at 2741.2, target 2662.4. Keep position size within 20%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$ETH#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购
#英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $ETH 💧 LIQUIDITY QUALITY TEST
$ETH: spread 0.000% | top-5 bid depth $270.8K
$BNB: spread 0.013% | top-5 bid depth $209.2K
$GIGGLE: spread 0.027% | top-5 bid depth $1.5K
$ETH has the deepest visible bid support in this snapshot. Which coin would you trust in fast volatility?
$ETH $BNB $GIGGLE
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ NFA — manage risk and DYOR."The Real Market Action in Q3: Closing in the Red After September"
September closed in the red. BTC rose about 7% monthly, marking the best September in recent years; the real breakout was in Q3: BTC rose over 40%, ETH about 70%. This rebound was not driven by sentiment alone.
ETF fund flows halted at the end of the month: on September 30, BTC saw a net outflow of $149 million, ETH outflowed $60 million, SOL outflowed $11 million; on Monday, the flow rate slowed by about 80%, but some funds still entered. The Fear & Greed Index is 72, total market cap around $2.9–3.0 trillion, greed remains.
Ecosystem: SOL's Open USD is operational and has committed $1 billion liquidity; ETH experienced staking withdrawals due to a MetaMask incident, but no funds were lost.
Macro remains a variable. Friday's employment data is a catalyst, interest rate pressure persists. In the short term, don't just watch the open—true results show at the close. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The load-bearing wall has already cracked, and this dilapidated building could collapse at any moment, burying everyone alive, but my fingers, covered in cement dust, are damn well pressing on 50x leverage again.
I swear this is the last time I go for high leverage. Last time when the site prefab house got liquidated, I slapped myself like this, and the time before that too. But you don't understand that feeling—the mixer roaring, the market shaking just a bit, adrenaline hitting my forehead so hard that even my safety helmet can't suppress my trembling hands.
Now looking at $ETH hanging at 2668.88, the 1-hour Bollinger lower band probing around 2640.61, RSI already sunk into the 36.6 swamp. Those contractors painting rosy pictures call this an oversold bullish divergence, but to me, this is clearly a shoddy tofu-dreg project with a fake foundation.
A rebound to the middle band at 2709 or even the upper band at 2779? Maybe, but the sand beneath is being washed away by water. Rationality tells me to evacuate this dangerous work zone immediately, but the gambler's inherent flaw in my bones forces me to grab a handful of short-term rebound rebar on this suspended scaffold.
- Target: $ETH 🟢
- Entry: 2650.00 - 2670.00
- TP1: 2705.00
- TP2: 2760.00
- SL: 2625.00
If the foundation breaks through 2625, the entire frame beam will collapse catastrophically, and don't even think about digging out ashes from the cement pile.
#CoinMoveAlert#OpenAI plans to raise $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation, with massive capital inflows shifting risk appetite toward tech equities, but BTC shows no panic selling pressure. I judge this as high-level turnover rather than a trend reversal. Negative funding rates combined with a 29,000 coin position base indicate shorts are paying and longs are absorbing. The top 10 bid-ask ratio of 1.62 shows active buying continuously absorbing around 83,826.4. The 84,483.7 price has risen 11.53% from the 4-hour low, with a slight 1-hour increase but still 2.64% below the 87,239 high. Short-term pressure above and support below coexist, with intense long-short battles. Strategy: buy on a pullback to 84,185, stop loss at 83,540, target 85,620; if volume breaks below 83,830, lightly short to 82,760. Keep position size within 5% of total capital, and do not hold positions longer than two days under negative funding rates.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BTC#OpenAI plans to raise $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation
#OpenAI plans to raise $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation $BTC Nonfarm payrolls shock: real breakthrough or just a false alarm?
29,000. When this number came out, the market paused for a second, then exploded.
Expected 90,000, actual 29,000—not a shock, but a freeze. The unemployment rate simultaneously climbed to 4.2%, the probability of an October rate hike was halved from 29% to 17%, and the two-year US Treasury yield plunged 10 basis points. The rate market voted with its feet, the direction is clear: tightening has peaked.
The market is more honest than words. $BTC surged from 84,000 to 87,239 in one move, the 85,200 resistance level that had been tested for three days overnight flipped from ceiling to floor. $ETH rose above 2,749, $SOL gained nearly 5%. After three days of consolidation, a big move opened up—this script was already written a few days ago.
But don’t rush to call a bull market.
Some economists poured cold water: 29,000 might be a seasonal adjustment distortion, not a real employment collapse. Remember this. If next month’s data is revised upward, those chasing longs tonight will be the next batch of retail investors to get cut.
An October rate hike is basically off the table, December is uncertain. With rates easing, valuations that were suppressed for a month can breathe, and the Q4 liquidity story has a foundation to build on. But next week’s CPI is the final exam—nonfarm payrolls are just a practice test, CPI will decide life or death.
One big bullish candle changes sentiment, three change the trend. Tonight could be a data night celebration or the start of a trend; it depends on whether next week can hold. Don’t rush, let the bullet fly a while.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Watching those few walls of sell orders on the order book made me laugh; it's obvious the main players deliberately set up fake barriers. The spot volume hasn't kept up, and the funding rate is just hovering around the equilibrium point. Technically, everything is oversold now, and those retail traders rushing in to catch a rebound are probably being repeatedly tested with small orders of a few hundred U. In this low-volume environment without buying support, the so-called support levels are just thin paper—breaking through them is a matter of seconds. If you don't want to become part of the liquidity fuel repeatedly harvested, hold onto your cash and wait for the big players. Don't rush.
$ETH $ENA $PENDLE Entered the market in March 2022, and up to today, this account has accumulated a loss of -256,000.
Other accounts have lost even more than this one.
Recently, it has clawed back some, with spot OKB recovering about eighty to ninety thousand. Honestly, I don't feel very happy because I'm still far from "breaking even," and I clearly understand that the losses over these years weren't due to lack of market opportunities but due to rushing to break even.
This month made me realize one thing:
📌 High volatility does not equal high profits; my biggest gains have never come from a single trade but from minimizing losses.
📌 The more you want to break even, the heavier your position; the heavier your position, the easier it is to be wiped out by a small move, which makes you want to break even even more—a vicious cycle.
📌 The 256,000 loss is not from a single trade but from hundreds of "this time is different" losses.
So next, I set a few rules for myself, which may not be perfect but I’ll write them down first:
1️⃣ Reduce contract position size and no longer aim for "one trade to break even"
2️⃣ If daily losses reach a certain amount, close the software—no adding positions, no revenge trading
3️⃣ Only buy spot assets that I can hold; avoid those I can't hold
#BreakEven #CryptoJourney #Contracts #Mindset
Personal experience, not investment adviceWiping away this layer of surface dust, what lies beneath is not the cornerstone of a new era, but the weathered remains of Pompeii long ago.
The market is shouting for a new bull market era, but as soon as you open the debt ledger after the Athens plague in 400 BC, or compare it to the parchment rolls on the eve of the 1929 crash, the K-line before your eyes is just another mechanical imprint of human greed and panic on a digital clay tablet. There is nothing new under the sun; every crash and struggle now is just the most standard sediment layer in historical stratigraphy.
The current scale is marked at 84517.6. A thin calcified hard shell is forming at the lower Bollinger Band at 83802 on the one-hour chart, RSI has dropped to 40.9, and those panicked manual diggers think the building is about to collapse, unaware that this is just the inevitable pullback from stress release in the strata. I have long set up a dense automated grid array along the rock fracture zone; mechanical probes automatically engage the residual oscillations of historical cycles every 0.3%, while manual traders still argue faith in front of the ruins. The cold programs have completed dozens of ruthless harvests in the cracks between collapse and reconstruction.
The support band of this relic has not truly broken; the Bollinger middle band at 85551 is merely the sediment line after the last mudslide wash. Contrarians don’t need to listen to oracles, they only need to set up nets at the most piercing coordinate points of the broken pottery shards.
- Target: $BTC 🟢
- Entry: 84000 - 84600
- TP1: 85550
- TP2: 87300
- SL: 83300
The skeleton has already carbonized, the strata has been compressed to the limit, and the gears of the chronological history engage once again. 🏛️🔍
#DailyOrbit #HistoryRhymes Slippage settings are not safer the lower they are; failed transactions also incur costs.
Slippage limits define the worst acceptable execution result a user is willing to accept. If set too high, the price may still execute after being pushed, leaving room for sandwich attacks and sudden market changes; if set too low, even normal fluctuations can cause the transaction to revert, meaning the user pays the already consumed Gas without acquiring the asset. Reasonable slippage depends on trade size, pool depth, price volatility, and routing complexity—there is no fixed percentage suitable for all $ETH swaps. If the interface only provides a "recommended value" without explanation, users find it difficult to understand what risks they are taking. Before execution, one should check the minimum receivable amount rather than just focusing on the estimated quote; after the trade, compare the actual execution with the expected submission. Safety is not about pushing a parameter to an extreme but about keeping the worst outcome within one’s tolerance while avoiding frequent failures that shift costs to block space.
The more complex the trade routing, the faster quotes expire, and slippage settings cannot simply be reused from the last time. Parameters should adjust according to current liquidity rather than become permanent defaults. Splitting orders, limit orders, and waiting for deeper liquidity are all tools to control outcomes; the key is to know the worst execution in advance, not to calculate the cost only after success.$CT's new coin hype hasn't faded, with the price movement from 0.075 to 0.5 pushing sentiment to a high level. The listing and trading rewards are clear catalysts, but the short-term gains are already large; if the chips loosen, the pullback could be swift. At this point, it's better to watch for a retracement and support rather than blindly chasing highs.
$ZEC has slid from around 1700 to the 1300 level, showing a pullback of about $400 before signaling stabilization. If the daily candle closes bullish, it may indicate weakening bearish momentum and a technical rebound opportunity; however, if the bullish candle fails to confirm, beware of a secondary bottom test. Resistance is near the previous high, with support around 1300.
Lab-type high-volatility tokens are tempting but have dispersed chips and questionable sustainability, making participation cost-effectiveness uncertain. The current market tests rhythm and risk control more; don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC Considering it is still trading within the range, the price is approaching the range high and the descending trendline. It was originally expected to be rejected again; instead, the price broke through this area with strong momentum and rose all the way to $86,900.
Despite this rise, the top near $87,300 has not been swept, and the liquidity cluster above has not yet been touched. This leaves two possible scenarios: either it continues to rise directly to sweep those highs, or it retests the range high before the next rise. In any case, those highs are still expected to be broken soon.
$ETH still maintains the same bullish structure. $2,770 is the key area here; if it turns back into support, the first focus will be $2,950, then $3,080. This is the same stepped pattern seen in this move, with higher lows intact and the trend remaining bullish.
$2,450 is the key support level; if it holds, this looks like a reset before the next wave up. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Woke up from a sleep, BTC at 84520, I stared at this number, feeling a jolt in my heart.
Last night before bed it was hovering around 85440, peaked at 87238, and after a whole night, it directly dropped back to 84520. Those who chased the high probably can't even sleep well now.
I glanced at the order book; there are scattered buy orders around 84500, but very thin, while sell orders are piling up. The volume hasn't expanded, indicating it's not a panic sell-off but more like profit-taking slowly escaping. That surge to 87238 last night was basically a short squeeze; after the shorts were blown out, the fuel ran out, so the pullback is normal. It's just that the pullback was faster than I expected; the support at 85000-85300 broke as soon as it was tested.
I'll mark the key $BTC levels again:
Support: 83800-84000, if broken look for 83000-83200, and further down is 82500.
Resistance: 85000-85500, if it can't rebound past this, it's weak; don't rush to call a bull comeback.
My operation: The part I reduced around 86800 last night, looking at it now, I was right again, no rush to buy back for now. If it pulls back to around 83800 with shrinking volume and stops falling, I'll lightly buy some, with a stop loss below 83200; if it directly surges to 85500 without volume, I'll continue to reduce.$ZEC demon coin, continue empty
1. Short trend order (current ZEC 4-hour short, example of shorting with the trend)
Short with the trend: enter near resistance on a rebound
Entry position
Rebound near resistance: 1310~1316 range (1316 is the resistance line)
Stop loss setting
Place stop loss slightly above resistance, not stuck on the 1316 line (pin bars easily trigger stop loss)
👉 Stop loss: 1325 (resistance + 9 points, volume breakout above 1316 on the candlestick indicates rebound strengthening, short logic invalid, exit)
Logic: If price holds above 1316, the short trend is broken, this short idea is wrong and must stop loss and exit.
Take profit in 2 parts (partial take profit to lock in some gains, keep a base position for bigger moves)
- First take profit (short term): 1180, near support around 1169, close half the position here to lock in profit.
- Second take profit (trend base position): 1169, if support breaks down with volume, cancel second take profit and hold for deeper decline; if support holds and closes with a bullish candle, close all positions and exit.
👉 Calculation for this trade:
Entry 1315, stop loss 1325, stop loss range = 10 points; first take profit 1180, profit range = 135 points, risk-reward ratio 13.5:1, very excellent.
2. Counter-trend bottom fishing long (not recommended! Current 4-hour short, for teaching only)$BTC and $ETH spot markets are simultaneously "bleeding," is the 80,000 liquidation line in danger?
📊 Previously, institutions were selling ETH and buying BTC, which was basically portfolio rebalancing within the circle.
Now both are being redeemed simultaneously, which is no longer a simple portfolio swap game; this indicates institutions are collectively withdrawing funds, and market enthusiasm has clearly cooled down.
Why is this happening?
Mainly because U.S. Treasury yields remain high, risk-free interest is very attractive, and institutions are choosing to lock in profits and secure stable interest. Influenced by non-farm payroll data and other factors, the macro situation is unclear, so they are reducing positions to observe.
💡 Previously, BTC could hold steady during sideways trading largely thanks to continuous ETF buying support. Now that buying has disappeared and funds are flowing out, the market's support has directly weakened.
But it’s important to distinguish that simultaneous outflows do not mean institutions are completely exiting and liquidating; it’s more about reducing positions at high levels to realize profits.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 On October 1st, the US two-year yield fell from 4.88% to 4.78%, and the ten-year yield dropped from 5.29% to 5.24%; US stocks rose slightly, with the S&P 500 up 0.19% and the Nasdaq up 0.04%.
However, the Brent December contract rose 4.37% to $102.31, and the ISM manufacturing input prices also increased significantly. Continued oil price increases will push inflation and rate hike expectations back up, offsetting the positive effect of the temporary yield decline.
At 8:30 PM last night, the US September nonfarm payrolls were released. The market expected an increase of about 90,000 jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%; but the actual data was 29,000, far below market expectations.
After the nonfarm report, the 10-year yield first fell to about 5.15%, then reversed and rose to about 5.28%; the two-year yield also rebounded to about 4.83%. The market believes that although employment is slowing, it is not bad enough for the Federal Reserve to completely abandon future rate hikes, especially with energy inflation and fiscal supply pressures still present.
This is particularly unfavorable for ETH: ETH is a long-duration, high-volatility risk asset, typically more sensitive to real interest rates and liquidity changes than US stocks or even BTC.
If ETH breaks below 2650, it is very likely to further test 2600.
In the short term, ETH is expected to fluctuate for several months.
The long-term outlook remains bullish #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Crypto morning trio: BTC holds, ETH grinds, ZEC surges
BTC at 83,074, after touching 86,000 yesterday it didn’t continue to surge, choosing to stabilize at a high level; the 80,000 mark has turned from resistance into a foundation. Currently watching two things: whether 85,000 can hold, and whether 87,000 can be broken. If it stands above 87,000, then 88,000 to 90,000 is possible; if it loses 85,000, don’t rush to buy, 83,000 is the next stop.
ETH at 2,660, much stronger than before, 2,700 is the first short-term defense line. With 35% staked and holders reluctant to sell, it is indeed supporting the bottom, but without continuous ETF buying, the gains supported only by staking are not solid. Holding 2,700 targets 2,800; breaking through looks at 2,850 to 2,900; if it falls back, reduce positions first.
ZEC at 1,392, the strongest on the board, momentum to surge to 1,600 remains strong. Key levels to watch: defend 1,550, contest 1,600, break 1,650; if it holds, look at 1,650 to 1,700; if it breaks below 1,550, don’t chase hard, wait for 1,500 to catch.
Overall, BTC seeks stability, ETH relies on reluctant selling, ZEC is forcing a short squeeze, but the overall network leverage is not low, tolerance for error is very narrow, and liquidity is thin over the weekend. In terms of operations, keep light positions in spot, don’t even think about 50x leverage contracts, always use stop-losses, holding positions without exit is a dead end. $BTC $ETH $SOL Don't treat $SPCX as an ordinary asset. MU's earnings report dominated the headlines, and the rocket narrative was pushed to the sidelines, but it is far from quiet: Starship propulsion, contract signings, Dragon spacecraft missions, NASA endorsements—catalysts one after another. Normally, such a combination would at least be resistant to decline, but in reality, while tech stocks generally rebounded, it weakened alone.
Previously joked about it: when AI is hot, it rides the AI wave; when tech is hot, it rides the tech wave; when aerospace is hot, it rides the aerospace wave. Now it touches all the hot spots, yet the market still doesn't buy it, indicating the problem lies not in the story but in the chips. The 150 area is like a wall; several attempts to break through were pushed back, weakening with each try. Positive news losing effect is often more dangerous than negative news.
Since the selling pressure above is not being digested anytime soon, going short with the trend is more reasonable than stubbornly holding on. #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 50 days, the market rating bounced back from 2.2 to 4.0
50 days ago, Bitcoin was still around 60,000, and the sentiment was as bad as being in intensive care: liquidity was shrinking, users weren't increasing, applications had no demand, and trading was all supported by sentiment and narratives.
The judgment at that time was not to expect altcoins to double together, but to first let the leading assets recover—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and public chains and DeFi projects with real infrastructure value. Looking back, that was indeed the path taken; Bitcoin has already returned to around 86,000.
The current market can be considered as having moved from the critical phase into a recovery phase, still far from a full bull market. Don't rush to heavily invest in altcoins; focus on the leaders and also keep an eye on Bitcoin's market share. $BTC $ETHDORA surged 75% in a single day! After a straight rally, is it a relay celebration or a high-level stand-by?
DORA/USDT current price is 0.002104, soaring 74.89% in 24h, with a daily low of 0.000960 and a high that shot up to 0.003000 before pulling back. This huge long upper shadow, combined with a massive bottom volume of 19.03M, shows a fierce turnover battle between bulls and bears at the 0.003 resistance level.
From a technical perspective, the 1-hour timeframe has seriously deviated from the Bollinger Bands (upper band 0.001728 was significantly broken), RSI6 is as high as 90.92, and the KDJ three lines are flattening above 70, indicating an extreme short-term overbought zone. Starting from the 0.000960 bottom, after doubling, profit-taking is heavy, and the current pullback at 0.002104 suggests hesitation among chasing buyers.
Such violent rallies in altcoins often come with a brutal "pump and dump" shakeout. If the macro environment (like Bitcoin's trend) is unstable, strong demand for DORA to retest support is expected. Key supports are at 0.001728 (Bollinger upper band turned support) and 0.001220 (middle band), with 0.003000 as a strong short-term resistance above.
In terms of operation: holders are advised to take profits in batches between 0.0025-0.003, keeping some position for further play; those without positions should avoid blindly chasing highs, consider light buying only after a stable pullback around 0.0017, with stop loss at 0.0015. Altcoins are highly volatile, focus on spot trading and strictly control position size.
DORA BTC $ETHDamn, I fell asleep at 9:30 last night. When I lay down, my mind was still uneasy, and I kept dreaming about liquidation.
I thought I was doomed. When I woke up in the morning, I didn’t dare to open my eyes or check my positions on my phone.
I really couldn’t sleep anymore, so I had no choice but to face reality. I opened my phone and saw my $ETH position was fine, and my account was actually flying up. My total assets are now $235.
That non-farm payroll wave last night was really just a pure emotional pulse.
The data caused a quick spike at the moment it was released, but fundamentally it didn’t change the big picture. The short-term market is all driven by capital sentiment.
This kind of data-driven market is the most torturous. Staying up late watching the market makes you vulnerable to being shaken out, but I closed my eyes and slept, perfectly avoiding the fake moves during the session.
Many people were glued to the non-farm data, chasing highs and selling lows, getting hit back and forth. The rallies triggered by news are mostly pulse moves with poor sustainability.
Since it’s come down, the market will mainly oscillate. Buying on dips and selling on rallies is still the best strategy at this stage.
What do you guys think? $BTC $ETH Brothers
Woke up after a sleep!!!
Made profits again and again
Remember I said before
pons is the most cost-effective
One of the short report targets, right?
pons plunged 12 points directly at midnight
My pons profit also
Soared from 20,000u to 25,000u
Reached my target position of 0.2u
Still half the distance to go
The Long March continues
Calm and steady, moving forward steadily
$PONS $ZEC $CT
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Last night's market action probably caught some people off guard again.
The US added only 29,000 nonfarm jobs in September, far below the market expectation of 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings dropped to 3%. Employment data for the previous two months were revised down by a total of 60,000. The signs of cooling in the job market are indeed quite clear.
Logically, a cooling job market would lead the market to reprice expectations for the Fed to slow tightening, and $BTC did indeed surge to around 87,300 at one point. But the subsequent pullback was also quite severe, with the highest in the screenshot at 87,239, the lowest hitting 83,123, and now a rebound to around 84,500.
This is what I find worth pondering: positive macro expectations do not mean prices only go up without falling.
Earlier, I opened a short at 83,400, thinking there was resistance above, but BTC directly pulled up, and my trading logic was slapped in the face. Looking back now, macro data can only provide directional clues; what really determines whether a trade can be made is how the price moves.
Currently, I am focusing on two levels: whether it can hold above around 85,500 on the upside, and whether 83,100 on the downside will be tested again. If the rebound fails to hold, it indicates selling pressure may not be over; if it holds and volume continues to increase, we cannot just assume it will keep falling because it dropped sharply before.
Monthly nonfarm data is easily affected by seasonal adjustments, so the 29,000 should not be directly interpreted as the economy suddenly stalling.
The biggest mistake in this market is to blindly go long when seeing weak data and immediately chase shorts when seeing big red candles. Originally wanted to short a wave, but got blown up by the non-farm payrolls, and the stop-loss order was triggered immediately.
$BTC 86,400U, up 3.2% in 24 hours. After the data was released, funds poured in, and the short-term consolidation range was pierced on the spot. With such macro pressure, most technical predictions are basically invalid.
$ETH 2,745U, up 2.1% intraday, rebounding in sync with the big coin but with moderate strength. On-chain locked positions haven't loosened; we need to wait for the market to continue warming up before the catch-up window opens.
$DOGE 0.162U, +4.7% in 24h, a purely sentiment-driven asset; when money piles in, volatility is large. Light positions for short-term play are fine, but holding long-term is not cost-effective.
In the face of such major news, there are too many uncertainties in the market; heavy bets on one-sided moves are the most dangerous. Stop-losses must be set strictly; that is the bottom line that must be upheld in trading.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $FIL today belongs to a sharp drop test, with funds bottom-fishing to recover lost ground, forming a consolidation and grinding bottom pattern, not a reversal rally.
Characteristics: There is support below, but heavy selling pressure above, insufficient rebound volume, most likely continuing to oscillate between 0.98 and 1.06.
Key monitoring points: Watch if it can volume up and hold above 1.06; support bottom line at 0.98. Nonfarm "ankle cut", is recession the main course?
Nonfarm only increased by 29,000, far below expectations, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the previous two months were revised down by a total of 60,000. But strangely, Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and silver all plunged, only crude oil surged to 104.
The reason is: the market fears not rate cuts, but recession. Rate cuts are just the opening act, recession is the main course. Bitcoin surged to 87,000 but was slammed back to 84,000, with 83,000 area as a short-term iron bottom; Ethereum softened after touching 2777, extremely oversold.
This drop looks more like traders rushing to anticipate recession. Don't rush to bottom fish, first see if 83,000 can hold. $BTC $ETH$BTC made a major statement on October 3! The CEO of the publicly listed Bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST) put forward a bold long-term prediction
In his latest public remarks, Matt Cole shared two points that could change the mid-to-long-term narrative direction:
"By 2030, the market value of digital credit will reach trillions of dollars. They will become the bridge for the world’s transition to a 'super Bitcoinized' future."
"People’s trust in fiat currency will continue to decline."
The entire statement is not a short-term market forecast but a comprehensive macro logic from a 5-10 year perspective, broken down into three core interpretations:
- Digital credit: not just buying coins, but the next generation of on-chain financial infrastructure
The "digital credit" he refers to means staking certificates, on-chain fixed income, institutional-grade lending, and structured product systems anchored by Bitcoin as the underlying base.
The logic is straightforward: Bitcoin first becomes recognized as a hard asset; then a whole set of credit markets that can generate interest, be used as collateral, and be institutionally standardized grows on top of it; this multi-trillion market value is not Bitcoin itself but the second-layer financial scale built on BTC.
Recently, overseas institutional circles have begun to reassess the ceiling of this sector—the real future growth will come not only from the coin price itself but from the complete credit ecosystem growing around it.