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Stablecoin regulation has moved forward again
The U.S. Treasury Department has introduced a new arrangement: states can submit stablecoin certifications in advance, and issuers with a circulation scale below $10 billion can apply to proceed first.
Two signals are quite clear. First, a phased approach: smaller issuers get to the table first, without having to bear the heaviest compliance burden right away; second, division of labor: states intervene early, and how the federal and state levels coordinate will directly determine the actual speed of licensing and regulation later.
For ETH, the focus is not on price but on demand. Stablecoins are the most rigid use case on-chain, with the vast majority of issuance and transfers running on this chain. Once the compliance path is clear, the legal uncertainty over issuers decreases, boosting motivation for new issuance, additional issuance, and moving business on-chain, which in turn drives on-chain transfer and settlement demand.
But don’t rush to see this as an immediate positive. The specific certification standards and whether state and federal criteria will conflict are still undecided. Next, watch three things: the actual progress of applications and certifications, changes in total stablecoin issuance, and whether on-chain stablecoin transfer volume truly picks up.
$ETHReuters expects 90,000, Dow Jones expects 84,000, and ADP also reported 90,000 this week. Compared to last month's 162,000, employment is indeed cooling down, but it hasn't reached a rapid decline yet. $BTC $ETH $ZEC However, a pullback does not equal good news. The market was already expecting a pullback, and part of the expectation has been priced in. What can really fuel a rebound for BTC and ETH is the hourly wage data. If the hourly wage month-over-month can drop to 0.2% and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%, I would be more bullish on this combination. So as long as the employment numbers meet expectations, tonight's surprise will most likely come from wages. Before the data is released, reduce positions and wait to act until hourly wages and unemployment rates are confirmed together. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Nonfarm payroll expectations cooling + Fed "not rushing to raise rates" → Bitcoin mildly bullish.
If weaker than expected, it will rally; if stronger than expected, short-term bearish. Overall, oscillating with a bullish bias, do not chase highs, key focus on US Treasury yields and the dollar. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Tomorrow, I will only focus on three things.
First, 85,500.
If it holds steady and confirms a breakout, I will tend to follow the trend and be bullish, watching the upper range of 88,000 to 90,000 USD.
Second, 83,000.
If it breaks below and confirms, I will defend first; the short-term structure may weaken again.
Third, macro.
Currently, the Federal Reserve, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields have not given any particularly clear signals of easing.
So I will not directly conclude that the bull market has restarted just because of a rebound.
My approach is simple:
Follow the breakout, defend on the break, wait during consolidation.
After many years of trading, I understand more and more:
Opportunities are never lacking; what truly lacks is patience and risk control.
Tomorrow, I won’t guess the market.
Let the market tell me the direction. ETH Midday Analysis
ETH surged past 2720 at midday, reaching a high of 2747, close to the previous core resistance zone of 2716–2756.
Before tonight's non-farm payroll data release, market uncertainty is relatively high, and the data will directly determine the subsequent direction.
Trading Strategy
You can try a small short position with a stop loss set at 2756.
Logic: 2747 is an internal test within the resistance band, not yet firmly established above 2756, so there is a high probability of pressure and a pullback;
• If the price continues to rise, hitting the stop loss at 2756, it is considered a valid breakout, and the short strategy is void; you can reverse to go long;
• If pressure causes a pullback, continue to watch the lower side of the consolidation range;
• If you don't want to gamble on a preemptive test order, you can choose to wait and watch, entering the market after the non-farm data release and a clear market structure emerges, to avoid the risk of sudden stop-loss triggers due to data spikes.
Reviewing the original structure:
The short-term range lower boundary is 2580–2600, with the key swing watershed at Gann 2×1 position 2536.
Only consider going long if the non-farm data causes a quick spike down and stabilizes; if it breaks below 2580 effectively, stop bottom-fishing strategies.$BTC has pulled back up to 86600 again, and the short position at 83400 fortunately stopped out.
A couple of days ago, I opened a BTC short at 83400, expecting a pullback after a rally, thinking there was significant resistance around 84500 and hoping for a retracement.
But the market didn’t follow my script at all. Now BTC has risen above 86600, with a daily gain close to 3%, reaching a high of 87374. I can only say the bears got hit again this time.
What I want to understand is: is this rally just an emotional rebound, or has real capital actually returned?
On the news front, the latest US PCE inflation data came in below expectations, pushing BTC briefly up to $85500; however, US Treasury yields remain high, and the gains were subsequently pulled back. On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF ended a streak of 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows on September 30, with about $149 million net outflow. One side shows easing inflation pressure, the other shows fluctuating capital flows, so the market isn’t as unified as it seems.
Back to the chart, the previous high of 87374 is within sight, and we need to see if it can be effectively broken above; on the downside, watch if the 85000 area can turn into support. Today’s US employment data is also worth monitoring, as it may continue to influence interest rate expectations.
What I should do now is not rush to prove I was right initially, but to reassess the risk of this short position. If the reason for opening the position is invalid, I have to admit it; I can’t stubbornly hold a short-term trade as a belief just because I’m unwilling to accept being wrong.
The most costly part of trading is sometimes not the stop loss, but refusing to admit when you’re clearly wrong Brothers, this wave of Ethereum is really strong.
It rose 70.9% in Q3, significantly outperforming the market. Back in July, many people were still saying Ethereum might be done, but with a little push, it directly became the star asset of the quarter.
There are three core reasons. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and funds have started to refocus on the second largest crypto asset. Spot ETF inflows have increased, institutions are buying. DeFi on-chain activity has warmed up, the ecosystem heat is back, and the market narrative around Ethereum is being re-priced.
So if you look at its current trend, it rises a bit more than Bitcoin when going up, and falls a bit less than Bitcoin when going down—it's really solid.
Right now, Ethereum is oscillating between 2660 and 2743. From the three-stage upward structure, segments a, b, and c have shown divergence; on the 4-hour level, it’s a bit hard to keep rising. Next, it will either form a larger-level consolidation zone or directly pull back. Personally, I lean towards a larger consolidation zone, trading time for space.
But above the daily level, the bullish outlook remains unchanged; the uptrend is intact, just with a need to retest the trendline. When there’s no market movement, you can only scrape the scalp and do some range trading. $ETH $BTC $ZEC Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls showdown: BTC breaks 86,000, results revealed at 20:30 tonight
Check the market at 1 PM
BTC surged directly above 86,000, up nearly 3% in 24 hours
Tonight at 20:30 (Beijing time), the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released
The short-term trend depends entirely on this battle
Briefly on the connection between BTC and Nonfarm Payrolls
If Nonfarm is strong tonight, rate hike expectations heat up, funds withdraw, BTC comes under pressure
If Nonfarm is weak, rate hike expectations cool down, funds return, BTC continues to surge
Last night, the Fed Vice Chair and Williams both signaled no rush to raise rates
The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped from 70% to about 25%
So if tonight's data is weak, it's good news for BTC
Looking at the market
BTC pushed from 57,000 to 87,000, but this rebound lacked volume support
There is a large sell order cluster between 85,000 and 85,500 above, a tough resistance
Support below is first at 80,000, then 75,000
My judgment
I hold a small BTC long position with a cost near 86,000
Before the data at 20:30 tonight, I will not add to my position
My personal discipline is
If data is hawkish and BTC falls below 80,000, I will stop loss and exit
If data is dovish and BTC holds above 87,000, I will keep holding
I don't bet on data, I accept breakouts
At 20:30 tonight, which side are you betting on for Nonfarm?
Raise your hand if you hold BTC longs, report your count in the comments👇
$BTC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Midday Report: $BTC BTC surges past 86,500, SOL rockets 5% leading the charge! Just entered a long position on OKB, how to hold onto this rebound profit?
📝 Main Text
Good afternoon, brothers, this morning's market finally gave us a reason to cheer!
After several days of steady decline and consolidation, the market saw a strong rally this morning. BTC broke through multiple levels, reaching a high of 86,888, currently around 86,500, up 2.81% in 24 hours. SOL performed explosively, jumping straight from 116.62 to 123.76, a 5.06% surge. OKB followed passively, now around 122.23, up 0.65%.
📊 Market Snapshot: Bulls Launch Full Counterattack
BTC: The 85,000 sell wall has been absorbed, bulls break through strongly
On the 15-minute chart, MA5 (86,357) > MA10 (85,827) > MA20 (85,300), a classic bullish alignment, with SUPERTREND support moving up to 85,725. Glassnode data shows the 85,000 sell wall for Bitcoin has been fully absorbed by buyers. As long as the evening pullback does not break below 85,700, this rebound structure is very solid, with an upside target of 87,500-88,000.
SOL: Ecological benefits keep coming, funds flood in
SOL is the strongest performer today, mainly driven by ecological boosts such as Fiserv launching the Solana digital asset platform. The 15-minute moving averages show a bullish alignment, with SUPERTREND at 121.35. From 116.62 to 123.76, a gain of over 6% in just a few hours, indicating frantic capital accumulation. Resistance above is seen at 124-125.
OKB: Passive follow-up, weak momentum
OKB is currently priced around 122.23, up slightly 0.65% in 24 hours. Although the 15-minute moving averages also show a bullish alignment (MA5: 121.99), with SUPERTREND at 121.32, its gains lag clearly behind SOL and BTC. This indicates that the market's hot money is mainly in BTC and SOL, with OKB acting as a "follower."
📋 Position Diagnosis (Key Point)
Based on the position screenshot you sent, you currently opened a long OKB position at 122.27 (isolated 20x leverage):
· Entry price: 122.27
· Current mark price: 122.23
· Floating profit/loss: -0.14U (-0.37%)
· Margin: 38.02U
· Liquidation price: 118.59
This position is currently right around the cost line. Given the broad market rally this morning, your long direction is correct. But there are two risks to watch out for:
1. OKB’s weak momentum: The market surged, BTC broke previous highs, SOL jumped 5%, but OKB only rose 0.65%. If the market pulls back later, OKB will likely fall with the market rather than rise, possibly falling faster.
2. Approaching resistance: OKB’s 24-hour high is 122.36, and the current price is right at this resistance. Only a volume breakout above 122.5 can open the way to 125; if it fails, a pullback to 121.3 (SUPERTREND) is likely to find support.
3. High leverage: Although isolated 20x is safer than your previous 30x cross margin, the 38U margin takes up a large portion of your total assets (around 32U, previously 32.62U in the screenshot, may have changed), so the margin for error is still low.
💡 Midday Trading Suggestions
1. Set a breakeven stop loss: Immediately set stop loss at 121.5 (or near entry price 122.27). This position must not lose more money! If it unfortunately breaks below 121.3, it means today’s market rally was just a "one-day wonder," and OKB’s follow-up logic fails, so exit decisively.
2. Watch the market’s mood: OKB’s fate depends on BTC and SOL. If BTC’s afternoon pullback holds above 85,700 and SOL stays above 121, OKB may catch up with a supplementary rise. If BTC rallies then falls, don’t hesitate to close the OKB long.
3. Have reasonable profit expectations: Don’t expect OKB to have a big bullish candle like SOL. If OKB hits resistance around 123-124 in the afternoon, it’s recommended to take profits. Even a few U gained is good.
4. Avoid adding positions: Don’t add above 122, as the dense chip area may form a double top.
📌 Summary
The market exploded strongly this morning, BTC absorbed selling pressure and stood above 86,500, with SOL leading the gains. Your OKB long is currently at breakeven. The core task this afternoon is "protect breakeven stop loss and follow the market’s lead." If the market is strong, OKB follows and profits; if the market pulls back, cut losses decisively to stay safe.
Brothers, did you catch this rally? Do you think OKB can break 123 this afternoon? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Reasons for the rebound
September ended in green. $BTC approximately +7%, the best September in recent years. The real movement is in Q3. BTC +40%+, $ETH +70%.
ETF continuous inflows stopped at the end of the month. 9/30: BTC −$149 million, ETH −$60 million, $SOL −$11 million. Monday slowed down by about 80%, but some inflows still remain.
Fear and Greed 72. Market cap about $2.9–3.0T.
$SOL: Open USD operation, $1 billion liquidity commitment.
$ETH: Staking exit due to MetaMask incident. No loss of funds.
Macro: Friday's employment report. Interest rates still heavy.
The catalyst is the employment report. Closing price, not the opening price. #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
Brent crude oil returning to $100 is essentially a heavy macro blow to the crypto space.
When oil prices surge, inflation expectations become uncontrollable, and the hope for a Federal Reserve rate cut is very likely to be postponed. As global capital tightens, high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies, which rely on liquidity, will inevitably be the first to suffer, with overall valuations suppressed.
Secondly, there is the flow of funds. With escalating geopolitical risks, large capital instinctively clings to the safety of the US dollar and gold. In the short term, there will be a noticeable increase in funds withdrawing from the crypto market. Although Bitcoin is often called "digital gold," in the initial phase of real panic, it usually gets indiscriminately sold off along with US stocks to obtain liquidity.
Overall, the escalation of US-Iran tensions will amplify volatility in the crypto market and suppress its upside potential. When the macro environment is uncertain, the crypto space can hardly remain unaffected. We can watch the show, but let's not get carried away. $FIL
The positive aspect is long-term incremental growth, suitable for AI Agent memory and RWA document archiving.
But the boundaries must also be clear: it mainly focuses on cold archive storage, with orders releasing slowly, not a short-term explosive market.What exactly is everyone panicking about regarding the September nonfarm payrolls to be released tonight?
The market expects new jobs to be between 85,000 and 90,000, a significant slowdown compared to last month, with the unemployment rate steady around 4.1%.
The real trap is the revision of previous data.
The surface numbers look good but are useless; recently, the Fed has often been misled—data initially looks good but is sharply revised downward the following month. If this new job number meets expectations but last month's high data is significantly revised down, the market will still trade as if employment is deteriorating.
Bad news is no longer good news.
Previously, poor employment meant people expected rate cuts and happily pushed prices up. But if this time new jobs fall below 50,000 or even turn negative, capital won’t celebrate rate cuts but will panic sell, directly trading a recession.
Wage growth is even more critical than new job numbers.
If new jobs are average but hours worked and hourly wage growth exceed expectations, inflation concerns won’t dissipate, giving the Fed more reason to maintain high interest rates.
If new jobs remain steady in the moderate range of 80,000 to 120,000, the market will continue to follow the rate cut soft-landing logic, which is positive for BTC and US stocks. Once data swings to extremes—either a sharp rise or fall—it will trigger intense short-term shakeouts.
At 8:30 tonight, it’s recommended to watch the show first and wait for the initial wave of volatility to settle before making moves.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC 10.2 zec Public Silk Road
$ZEC Long position operation
Entry range: Buy on dip near 1330 low
Stop loss defense: 1300
Position scaling
First scale: Around 1380 (current position, near moving average)
Second scale: Around 1400
Third scale: Pressure zone above 1420-1440
Reference factors: Price is close to the upper Bollinger Band, where obvious resistance is expected; the golden cross below the zero axis is considered a rebound, not a strong bullish reversal, suitable for waiting on the right side for dip confirmation, not for chasing longs at high levels. But if following last night’s Silk Road long entry, you can wait for 1420.
Plan B
After breaking below 1300, operate short positions, just short at high levels, manage detailed points yourself. Yesterday set a stop at 1320 which was triggered, but bought near 1310, now with 80 points profit, don’t hold shorts too long.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Veteran crypto trader deleverages late at night, waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls! All BTC short positions are closed, leaving only ETH fishing solo, taking an extremely sober defensive stance before the storm.
BTC and ETH steadily rise with a healthy trend, but tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls are the real test. The biggest constraint in the current market is not ETFs, but the high interest rate environment—elevated yields keep risk asset valuations under pressure. I've fully closed my BTC shorts, leaving only one ETH position hanging. The logic is straightforward: if Nonfarm is weak, the pause on rate hikes bets heat up (bullish); if strong, the shadow of more hikes this year looms (bearish). Fortunately, the PCE leading data supports a slightly bullish bias tonight, but I won't act blindly before the news is confirmed.
The closer to the big event, the more cautious I get—betting on certainty, not direction. Large positions are not reckless gambles but strategic retreats before the news drops.Since 2013, Bitcoin's October performance has risen 10 times out of 13. The average return is 18.52%, with a median of 12.73%. In October 2021, it rose 42.92%. In October 2013, it doubled directly by 60%.
In the crypto community, this has a special name: Uptober.
Every year around this time, the whole network starts hyping it. KOLs begin shouting "October must rise," the community starts painting big pictures, and you start wondering "maybe I should go all in."
But today I want to talk about: why Uptober will fail in 2025, and what exactly is being bet on this October.
🧊 First, let's pour some cold water: October 2025.
A textbook Uptober start. Bitcoin surged to a historic high of $126,080 at the beginning of October, and the record of 7 consecutive years of October gains seemed rock solid.
Then Trump threw out a 100% tariff threat on China.
On October 10, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in one day. The largest liquidation day in crypto history.
By the end of the month, Bitcoin closed down about 4%. Uptober turned into Rektober.
Seven years of consecutive gains ended overnight.
Patterns are always meant to be broken.
💊 September this year was indeed impressive.
Bitcoin closed September up 6.33%-7.33%, marking the best September performance since 2013. Ethereum rose 8.77% in September, also the second-best September on record.
Historically, September is Bitcoin's worst month—with an average return of -2.34%. Four consecutive Septembers of gains is the longest streak in existing data.
Bitcoin's cumulative Q3 gains approached 40%, poised to be the strongest Q3 since 2017.
Strong September, even stronger October? Historical patterns say: yes.
But the market never runs solely on historical patterns.
🎯 This October, there are three cards on the table.
Bullish cards:
September +6.33%, the second-best September historically, laying momentum for October
Citibank raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000, citing increased ETF inflows and improved macro environment
30-year US Treasury yield fell back from a 5.6% peak, improving short-term risk appetite
Multiple Fed officials hinted no rate hike in October; the probability of an October hike dropped from 70% to about 25%
Bearish cards:
Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4% on September 16, the first hike in 2023, passed unanimously
Although October hike probability cooled, another hike this year is still possible
ETF funds turned to a net outflow of $148.7 million on September 30, breaking a 9-day net inflow streak
10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.289% at the end of September, 30-year at 5.632%, both hitting 52-week highs
Wildcard card:
A liquidation map shows Bitcoin's 30-day leveraged long exposure at $4.35 billion, concentrated around $74,170
If price breaks key support, these positions could trigger a chain liquidation, causing a cascade
The lesson from October 10 last year’s $19 billion liquidation is still fresh
🤔 So the core question isn't "will it rise or not."
The core question is: between seasonal momentum and macro pressure, which is stronger this year?
Bullish logic: September delivered historic-level performance, ETF Q3 net inflows about $6.34 billion, Citibank raised target price, October hike probability cooled to 25%.
Bearish logic: Fed has already started hiking, unanimously approved. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%, no-yield assets naturally suffer. ETF fund flows turned negative at month-end. $4.35 billion leveraged longs hanging overhead.
Both sides have true arguments. This is what makes the market so torturous.
💡 My own judgment in one sentence:
Seasonality can support the trend but cannot offset macro shocks.
September's gains were due to "bad news priced in" after Fed hikes plus concentrated ETF inflows. But in October, this logic faces two hurdles:
First hurdle: October 2 Nonfarm Payroll data. Too strong → rate hike expectations return → Bitcoin under pressure. Too weak → recession fears → risk assets still pressured.
Second hurdle: October 14 CPI data. This is the last key inflation data before the Fed's late-October meeting. If inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations will be repriced.
Passing both hurdles means the late-October meeting might give the market a breather.
Failing means forget Uptober, Rektober awaits you.
/ To be honest.
Uptober is a statistical fact, not a destiny guarantee.
10 rises out of 13 times, a 77% probability. Sounds high. But in a casino game with a 77% win rate, you still have a 23% chance to lose.
And the 2025 lesson is clear—when macro storms hit, seasonality is just a paper tiger.
$19 billion liquidations won't not happen just because "October historically averages an 18% rise."
The market won't go easy on you just because you believe in patterns.
/ Final sentence
This October, it's not about "will it rise or not."
It's about "can it withstand rate hike pressure."
Seasonality gives you probability. Macro gives you reality.
Don't mistake probability for a promise.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Previously, $ETH broke through the 2700 mark from 2530, forcing shorts to stop loss and liquidate, buying to close shorts and further pushing the price up to 2806.88, then falling back to 2634.35 and starting to oscillate. After 9 days of thick consolidation, with the non-farm payroll data today, it has currently stabilized above 2700 within 6 hours. Can the bears win tonight?
I also added a small position, averaging up from 2672.34 to 2685.11, and reduced leverage from 10x to 8x. $BTC is still a bit away from risk control; even if I'm wrong and it stabilizes at 2850, it won't hurt me much. Currently, $ZEC has an unrealized profit and loss of 200,000 USD, continuing to hold and waiting for the non-farm payroll data at 20:30 today.Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MEGA Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.67, position ratio 0.87; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls expanded by 1.36 percentage points. More bullish accounts, no dominant long position size advantage yet.
$PEPE Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.08, position ratio 0.8; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls narrowed by 1.22 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still bearish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators.
$SOL Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.07, position ratio 0.96; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls narrowed by 1.49 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still bearish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators.A few days ago, the bearish sentiment was stronger. After observing these past few days, Bitcoin refuses to pull back, as if it's nurturing the bulls.
The spot market is spiking upwards, but the futures are not, which is a bit strange.
Logically, the futures should spike upwards to clear the shorts, then start a pullback decline.
But that's not happening now, so my guess is: the spot market is sweeping the sell orders upwards, opening the channel for a subsequent rapid rally.
Everyone has already rehearsed buying if Bitcoin falls, given the current situation.
Will the market trend align with everyone's expectations?
So, we need to rehearse what to do if it goes up.
If Bitcoin breaks through 87,000 again at this time, should we chase? What if it breaks 92,000 and heads straight to 95,000 or 102,000?
If Bitcoin refuses to pull back and tries 87,000 upwards again, it will most likely break through, but the premise is to hold above 85,000, which is currently at 85,100.
If it breaks through and holds, then it will head towards the 83,000–85,000 range to open short liquidation positions, corresponding to liquidation points for 100x, 50x, 20x, 10x, and 5x leverage.
Reference points can be: 87,500; 89,700; 92,000; 99,700; 102,000.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC The $85K sell wall has been absorbed, with price reaching an intraday high of $85,266. But holiday liquidity is thin, so this breakout still needs confirmation. On the 1H chart,$BTC reclaimed $84,167 and short-term moving averages are turning higher. The key now is whether spot buying can continue. Watch $85,266–$85,650. If volume rises but price fails to push higher, a liquidity pullback could follow. For bulls, $84K–$84.2K is the first support zone. Losing it could open a move toward $83$ETH
Watched the market all day,
finally got in at 2704.
Honestly, this surge is a bit wild,
a big bullish candle pushed straight to the upper Bollinger Band.
Now holding a long position at 2704,
looking at the previous high at 2747, feeling both excited and nervous.
Excited because there's profit as a cushion,
nervous because a sudden spike from a manipulator could happen anytime.
Not overthinking it, just set a stop loss at 2715 to lock in the downside.
In the first half, see if 2747 can be broken,
if not, reduce position; if yes, hold and watch for 2780.
Trading contracts is all about surviving longer.
To those brothers who are jealous and want to chase longs now,
a word of advice: control your hands, wait for it to drop to give you a chance to get in.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
The initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 197,000, below the expected 200,000, staying under 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, while continuing claims fell to 1.7 million, the lowest since March 2023. The labor market is as tough as a rock.
Once this data came out, the market was stunned. Originally, it was hoped that cooling employment would give the Federal Reserve a reason to cut rates, but companies verbally express pressure, yet are reluctant to lay off employees. Rate cut expectations have been dampened again.
For the crypto world, the logic is straightforward: strong employment → consumption and wages hold up → inflation pressure could rebound at any time → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates easily. Goldman Sachs has long "surrendered," abandoning rate cut predictions for this year and even doubling the probability of a rate hike to 20%. If rate hike expectations combine with soaring US Treasury yields, tightening liquidity will hit high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum first.
Currently, BTC is struggling around $84,000, ETH is under pressure below $2,700, and after continuous ETF inflows, there was a net outflow of $149 million in a single day. The crypto market doesn't want to go independent; the macro faucet hasn't been turned on yet. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the day the Federal Reserve truly loosens.ATOM ecosystem governance attack combined with chain shutdown, down 3.8% in 24 hours, NEAR profit-taking sell-off dropped 4.5%, overgains are the original sin. XRP relies on Evernote Nasdaq merger vote passing, the listing treasury expectation supports it, moving stronger against the trend. The overall market rose 1.22%, funds are picking targets, not a broad rally.
Just opened the guard booth window for some fresh air, the cup of tea on the desk has been cold for a long time without drinking.
SCR technicals are very strong with a bullish alignment, volume explosion directly breaks through the consolidation range. The liquidation map is even clearer, short liquidity is densely stacked in the 0.0355 to 0.0385 range, this is a magnet, the price has a very strong upward attraction. The current 0.0348 is a bullish continuation, not the end.
The short squeeze rally has started, go long with the trend. Entry zone 0.0345 to 0.0350, first take-profit target 0.038, second target 0.040. Defense point at 0.0330, exit if broken, no holding through losses. Control position size well, stop loss is discipline, not advice.
The declines of ATOM and NEAR have nothing to do with SCR, don’t mix them up. SCR is playing the short liquidation game; until the upper liquidity is fully consumed, the trend won’t easily stop. Watch the 0.0355 level, a volume-supported hold is a signal to accelerate.
Just take one more look at the market before off work.
$SCR
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
@OKX星球 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital heat
Ethereum quietly rose 70% this quarter, smart money has already been moving
ETH's Q3 return rate is 70.8%, the strongest quarter since 2016.
On-chain data doesn't lie. In the past week, BTC whales reduced nearly 30,000 coins, while ETH whales actually increased by 60,000 coins. One address started accumulating from early September at an average price of $2,671, hoarding 12,134 ETH, over 30 million USD, directly putting it into Aave to earn interest. This is not something retail investors do.
Last night, the US stock crypto sector collectively rallied, with MSTR and BMNR both rising. Citi raised BTC's target price from 82,000 directly to 113,000, and ETH was also adjusted upward.
BTC just pulled above 84,800, ETH is around 2,710. The fear and greed index is 71, in the greed zone but not extreme.DOGE may be approaching a turning point, with the key in the next two days
The 1-hour chart has formed a fairly standard price triangle consolidation. A similar pattern appeared two weeks ago; after breaking through $0.092 and confirming the trend, it headed straight toward the previous high of $0.11.
Of course, a triangle breakout does not necessarily mean a one-sided market, but following the trend at this position usually has a much higher success rate than chasing highs at the top. Keep a close eye on the market in the next two days; the opportunity might be this week. $DOGEUS September jobs data is the next big macro test.
Markets expect around 84K new jobs, down from 162K in August, with unemployment at 4.1%.
With inflation still elevated but rate-hike bets cooling, a weak jobs print could reinforce expectations for a Fed pause—while a strong number may bring tightening fears back.
Can NFP reshape the Fed outlook—and move BTC
#USJobsDataToday Reviewing my trading experience over the past few years. When I first entered the market, I thought I was a genius, going all in with heavy positions, and ended up losing 200,000U. Later I realized that trading is not about who is braver, but about who survives longer. BTC is currently at 86451.2, resistance at 86888.0, support at 86000. My strategy: a small position of 5000U, lightly going long near support, lightly going short near resistance, never holding losing positions without stop loss. Although recovery is slow, at least I no longer suffer big losses. Remember: the first rule of trading is to survive, the second rule is to remember the first rule. $BTC #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Something worth watching in Bitcoin:
The nine-day U.S. spot ETF inflow streak has ended.
About $148.7M flowed out on September 30 after roughly $3.1B of inflows over the previous nine sessions.
One day doesn't change the whole picture.
But it reminds us that institutional demand isn't a straight line.$BTC has once again broken through 86000, confirming the bull market once more. Can it reach a new high again?
I have to say, this time the main force has a big vision, pushing the price up without deep pullbacks.
The bullish trend has lasted for nearly two months, and only now am I calling it a bull market, which is a bit late.
However, I’m not that optimistic about this bull market.
After all, there are several big obstacles ahead.
1. Interest rate hike cycle. 2. No incremental funds of MicroStrategy’s scale entering the market. 3. Sharp rise in US Treasury yields. 4. Geopolitical issues.
Moreover, the pricing power now lies not in the news but in the capital flow.
Capital flow is highly subjective; price movements are determined by the will of certain individuals or institutions.
For retail investors like us, this means we no longer have news to help judge market direction, and any indicator can fail due to capital influence, making trading really difficult now.
Short positions are easily stopped out, and profitable long positions are likely to pull back.
Looking back at the liquidations over the past two weeks, although the market is biased bullish, the liquidation volumes for both longs and shorts are roughly equal.
Therefore, for new retail investors entering the market, trading difficulty has increased.
At this time, I’m not contradicting everyone; I still recommend entering with a light position.
The key resistance level of 85500 has already been broken. If it holds, around 87000 will be a new resistance level.
The above is just my personal opinion. $ZEC Latest Capital Flow:
Spot｜24H
🔹 Large orders: +465,000 U
🔹 Medium orders: -464,900 U
🔹 Small orders: +5,970,800 U
Contracts｜24H
🔻 Large orders: -5,445,600 U
🔻 Medium orders: -3,680,900 U
🔻 Small orders: -10,651,100 U
Simply put, spot continues to see inflows, while contract funds keep flowing out, which looks like continuous position reductions on the contract side, with stronger absorption on the spot side.
Could it be that some large funds are shifting to spot accumulation after closing positions on contracts?
ZEC's short-term heat remains, but after consecutive declines, market sentiment has clearly cooled. If the 1300 level is not broken for a long time, pay attention to capital movements after sideways trading.
1300 is a recent key level; short sellers should be cautious of risks. The "mysterious whale" in the crypto circle quietly adjusted its positions late at night, with a total exposure of 162 million hiding a secret, no run away! It’s taking the ultimate defensive route of reducing risk at high levels and retreating defensive lines.
BTC decreased from 552 to 548 coins, continuing a 40X full-position long, with unrealized profit expanding to 153,000 U, and the liquidation price firmly held at 73,800.15, further widening the extreme shakeout buffer zone.
ETH remains unchanged, tightly holding 35,000 coins at 25X full-position long, with unrealized profit of 925,000 U, still the core ballast of the entire long-short warship, with the forced liquidation line fixed at 2,488.40.
SOL slightly reduced to 180,000 coins, unrealized loss narrowed to 421,000 U, not fully cutting losses, leaving enough room for this sentiment token’s oversold rebound.
The closer to key macro data, the less likely to make drastic moves, relying on small incremental adjustments to complete defense. This position adjustment is the last reinforcement before the storm — the bullish base color remains unchanged, only actively unloading some chips and deeply burying the liquidation defense line, allowing the account to withstand the extreme sweep at the moment of data release.
Large positions are not gambles but a step-by-step strategic retreat of the lifeline.$BTC $ETH $SOL Friday 📊
Bounce off the month-end low. Not a new leg.
$BTC $84.5K–$86.5K. Week low $82.8K. High still $87.4K.
$ETH $2,690–$2,740. Floor $2.60K held. The door is $2.77K.
$SOL $117–$122. $117 held. $125 is the local high.
Map
$BTC: $85.2K reclaim → $87.4K → $90K. Fail $82.8K, then $80K.
$ETH: $2.77K close or $2.60K fail.
$SOL: $123 hold → $125. Lose $117 and $110 is next.Before the non-farm payrolls, let's review the macro picture — tonight at 20:30 Shanghai time, the September non-farm payrolls will be released, with consensus around 90,000 and unemployment rate watched at 4.1%. The Fed's odds of a rate hike in October have dropped to just over 20%, with over 70% chance of holding steady; Jefferson and Williams both lean towards "not rushing to move again."
Spot $ETH is around 2740, about 2% up from 2683 at Shanghai midnight, with a daily high touching 2748 and a daily low of 2673. $BTC is hovering near 86,500. Don't max out your positions before the data drops; first see if it can hold above 2740.
$BTC $ETH #ETH #Ethereum #NonFarmPayrolls #Fed #Macro #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, trade cautiously. Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls—don't guess the data, trade based on the price reaction after the data is released.
Focus on four key points:
① Nonfarm Payrolls
Significantly below expectations → cooling employment → rising rate cut expectations → BTC slightly bullish
Significantly above expectations → falling rate cut expectations → BTC slightly bearish
② Unemployment Rate
Rising → dovish bias
Falling → hawkish bias
③ Wages This is a very critical item tonight.
Weak employment + weak wages → BTC slightly strong
Strong employment + strong wages → BTC under pressure
Contradictory employment and wage data → likely to cause sharp volatility
④ US Treasury Yields Key to watch after Nonfarm release:
Nonfarm → US Treasury yields → USD → BTC
My trading logic
Before data release: do not chase trades.
After data release: wait for the first spike to end, then determine direction.
Bullish data ≠ immediately go long
Bearish data ≠ immediately go short
The real confirmation signals are:
Break resistance and retest without breaking → consider long
Break support and fail to rebound → consider short
Price sweeps without forming structure → no trade
In short:
Nonfarm determines volatility, interest rates determine direction, BTC structure determines entry.Those praying for a bigger pullback are just bullish and looking to add more positions opportunistically. Anyway, I don't really expect to see below 78K—that's exactly the support level of the bull market. If you're waiting for some massive panic sell-off (a complete "capitulation"), you might be waiting forever. $BTC $ETH $CT $CT PRINTED 0.07500 TO 0.53000 ON THE DAILY CHART.
Now it sits at 0.49462, up 0.34%, after a 24h range of 0.38580–0.53000.
The daily chart has barely any history, so I won't force a conclusion. Patience beats prediction.
Is this volatility price discovery or exhaustion?
#USJobsDataToday 🎯 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FACEOFF
$SLX: support (0.06193) | resistance (0.06439)
$KAITO: support (0.3338) | resistance (0.3591)
$SOL: support (116.62) | resistance (123.67)
$KAITO is closest to its 24H resistance. Is it the next breakout, or a rejection setup?
$SLX $KAITO $SOL
#MarketComparison #Crypto
⚠️ NFA — manage risk and DYOR.The load-bearing wall hasn't been poured yet, but the scaffolding has already been built up to the sky. This column is about to burst at any moment!
The current $BCH market looks like a shoddy construction project cutting corners on the site. The upper Bollinger Band has hit the ceiling at 312.2, and the current price is forcibly capped at 313.6. The RSI has surged to 61.1, which is like recklessly stacking bricks before the cement has even setWhy it’s bouncing
September closed green. $BTC +7%, best September in years. Q3 was the real move: BTC +40%+, ETH +70%.
ETF streak broke into month-end. Sep 30: BTC funds −$149M, ETH −$60M, SOL −$11M. Monday inflows cooled ~80% but stayed green on some desks.
Fear & Greed 72. Mcap ~$2.9–3.0T.
$SOL: Open USD live, $1B liquidity committed.
$ETH: MetaMask incident forced staking exits. No funds lost.
Macro: Friday jobs. Yields still heavy.
Jobs print is the catalyst. Closes, not the open.$NEAR This ID's viewpoint:
NEAR started from the 4.545 low on the 30-minute level, rising and then forming a consolidation zone. Recently, a pullback occurred, and it is now in the phase of a secondary buy battle. Entry: Wait for a secondary-level pullback to stabilize and a bottom fractal signal to appear before entering; Stop loss: Place below the consolidation zone's ZD.
Chan Theory Structure:
The purple box is the core consolidation zone on the 30-minute chart, with ZG around 4.90 and ZD around 4.65. The previous high was 5.580; after a surge, it pulled back, but the pullback low did not break below the 4.545 starting point, indicating a secondary pullback in the upward process. Currently, the price has returned near the lower edge of the consolidation zone, attempting to form a secondary buy. If it breaks above and holds above ZG, this upward structure will continue; if it breaks below the 4.545 low directly, this upward trend is declared broken.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation:
The previous downward break was accompanied by a volume spike on that candlestick, indicating concentrated short-term supply release, followed by a quick recovery. The current rebound volume is weaker compared to the previous upward move, indicating a tentative repair. Subsequent upward breakthroughs require volume confirmation of demand; volume contraction during pullbacks represents gradual exhaustion of selling pressure.
Core Observation:
Focus on whether the support near 4.65 can hold. If the support holds and a secondary-level bottom divergence appears, the secondary buy is formed; if volume surges to break below the 4.545 low, this upward structure fails, and further bullish outlook should be abandoned. The upper resistance is first at the consolidation zone's ZG 4.90; only after holding above this level is there a chance to challenge the previous high of 5.58. Iran has stated that it has received the U.S. counterproposal on the ceasefire plan. I am willing to see this as evidence that negotiations are still progressing, but there is still a distance before both sides accept the same set of conditions. Receiving the document, starting to study it, and agreeing to implement it are different stages; news headlines easily compress them into one event.
What I care about this time is whether the counterproposal can specify the differences between the two sides more concretely. Previously, each side could publicly emphasize its bottom line, but once real text negotiations begin, they must answer which conditions can be changed and which steps can be taken first. Exchanging documents back and forth is more useful than shouting across the void, but it may also expose the originally vague conflicts more clearly.
Therefore, negotiations continuing and oil price risks still existing can both be true simultaneously. The energy market must also consider the consequences of the agreement breaking down; just because someone sits down to talk doesn’t mean shipping risks should be prematurely removed.
Ordinary people certainly hope for an early end; fuel price increases will eventually enter transportation costs and living bills. But hoping for peace and judging how likely the agreement is must be separated. I especially dislike the excitement of "the counterproposal has arrived, the crisis will be resolved immediately."
If both sides can provide similar interpretations of the same text next, I will be more optimistic. If only one side announces progress while the other still emphasizes that conditions are unacceptable, the market must leave room for this gap.
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 The impact of tonight's non-farm payrolls on gold can be summed up in one sentence: employment data determines rate hike expectations, rate hike expectations determine the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which ultimately transmit to gold prices.
Transmission chain
Strong non-farm data indicates resilience in the US economy, reinforcing market expectations for continued Fed rate hikes, strengthening the US dollar and pushing US Treasury yields higher. As gold is a non-yielding asset, its opportunity cost rises, putting pressure on gold prices. Conversely, weak non-farm data cools rate hike expectations, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to fall, giving gold upward momentum.
Three scenarios
Scenario 1: Non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations (new jobs below 70,000)
Clear signals of weak employment will prompt the market to immediately lower rate hike bets, weakening the US dollar and possibly causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall from above 5.3%. Gold has a chance to rebound and test the $4200 to $4210 range.
Scenario 2: Non-farm payrolls meet expectations (80,000 to 100,000)
Market consensus is between 84,000 and 90,000 new jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. This range is already fully priced in, so gold prices will likely remain volatile with no clear direction. The probability of a rate hike in October is currently only about 25%, and data meeting expectations will not change this outlook.
Scenario 3: Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations (new jobs above 130,000)
If the data is strong above 130,000 and wages hold steady at 3.2% year-over-year, rate hike discussions will immediately restart, strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields simultaneously. Gold will likely be pushed down to below $4140 or even $4100.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 My trading plan tracking:
I continue to hold my $BTC long position with a stop loss set at 829.
As long as the 828 support is not broken, I will continue to hold until 860-880 before considering taking profits.
Reason for holding: Currently, it is still oscillating in a box range between 828-850, and it has already risen to the resistance near 850. To prevent a false breakout followed by a drop, a stop loss is definitely necessary.
Secondly, if it breaks through 852 with a surge.It feels like personal bots might not work out
There are too many meme variables
Maybe it can achieve an annualized return of over ten percent
But it also can't have big market fluctuations
However, for someone like me with small capital, it's not very useful
Those who can make money are basically a few types
Rule makers: those who issue coins, make markets, collect fees, are all the usual big fish.
The fastest: MEV, sniper, arbitrage bots. Competing on nodes, latency, and capital, their opponents are all professional big teams.
Shovel sellers: those who make tools, data, signals, tutorials, communities. They earn money from traders, not by gambling on the market.
Long-term holders: holding mainstream coins for the long term, relying on overall industry growth. This is not trading and does not guarantee results.
Can the god of trading give me some inspiration? What directions are still unexplored now?
If you want to start a project, what kind of project do you think can make money? $牛来 $OKB Within ten years, tokens could reach one hundred trillion dollars. Are you ready?
Every asset in the real world is being split into sparkling digital fragments at an astonishing speed.
On July 17, the U.S. Congress passed the "Genius Act" for stablecoins, allowing Wall Street banks to directly mint on-chain deposits; shortly after, on August 1, Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" officially came into effect, and on July 10, the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a special meeting to study stablecoins, including asset digitization, cross-border trade, and supply chain finance in their key agenda.
The U.S. anchors global liquidity with the dollar, while China fills the real financing gap with industrial assets and the digital renminbi. Both countries are translating traditional financial contracts line by line into smart contracts.
As the wave of tokens like $BTC potentially reaching one hundred trillion dollars sweeps in within ten years, the race to rewrite the global financial underlying protocols has already begun, and everyone will become a signer of this new protocol. #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 I was dumbfounded watching directly, $BTC is rallying across the board.
Originally, the short position on $AAVE was already very painful to hold, and now with BTC and $ETH surging together, AAVE has directly surged over 8 points, reaching a price of 185.8, pulling further away from my opening average price of 163.71, and the floating loss continues to expand.
I previously thought it was just altcoins moving individually, but it’s not a solo move; the entire market is pushing up together, and my watchlist is all green with gains.
This kind of broad rally is the most tormenting for shorts, with buying pressure everywhere and no sign of a pullback. With 50x leverage weighing on me, every little jump up tightens my chest.
My predictions were completely wrong; the expected pullback never came, and instead, the whole market took off. Now I’m caught in a dilemma: cutting losses means admitting a real loss, but holding on means not knowing how much further it can rise.
The market never follows the expected script. This broad rally has given shorts a harsh lesson.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 You might not be familiar with the name Leopold, but the label "Former OpenAI researcher turned AI stock trader" sounds impressive enough.
I glanced at his latest holdings; his biggest long positions are SanDisk at 28% and Micron at 27.5%. He has completely cleared his put options on Nvidia and AMD.
To put it simply, this guy isn’t betting on the AI concept itself, but on AI's "shovels" — storage and computing hardware.
I've fallen into the same trap. I used to follow big players' holdings blindly, only to find out they adjust their portfolios quarterly while I was buying high and standing by.
The key point is this: clearing puts doesn’t mean he’s bullish on Nvidia; it just means he’s not betting on it to fall. The real heavy bets are on the storage sector.
What impact does this have on the crypto world? Indirect. Once the AI narrative and computing power concepts heat up, tokens like $RNDR and $FET can ride the wave. But don’t force it.
I studied this position for a while, and my conclusion is simple: he’s betting on next year, while I, an old retail investor, can’t even predict next week. Time to sleep.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 #英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $FET $BTC surged, and my short position is still holding strong 👊
BTC climbed from 83490 to 86914 today, up nearly 3%, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band at 86544. The MACD red bars are expanding, RSI6 shot up to 81.34, seriously overbought. This rally is sharp and fierce, clearly a short squeeze.
My short position is still stuck and hasn't exited. I was betting on a pullback, but it shot up like a rocket. 86914 is the high for this wave; with RSI so high, a short-term rebound could happen anytime, but the trend is already strong. Holding on further means going against the market. I cut half my position to stop loss and will see if 86000 can hold. If it doesn't, I'll close all.
On the news front, IMF approved $139 million funding to El Salvador, warming market sentiment and making it harder for shorts.
Brothers, anyone else trapped in shorts like me? Let's unite in the comments, tell me if you cut losses or are still holding?🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Backtesting perfect score, can we always test on the original questions?
Crypto circle fictional skit: A Yuan developed a "god-level strategy" and announced with the backtest report that he finally understood the market.
A friend asked how he did it. He said, first take a segment of historical data to test; if it loses, adjust the parameters; if it still loses, add conditions; if one day looks especially bad, then study a "special case no trading".
After tossing and turning until dawn, the report finally looked good. The rules grew from three lines to three pages, even he had to check the table of contents first.
The friend switched to a segment of data that wasn’t involved in parameter tuning, and immediately it went wrong. A Yuan was silent for a moment: "Why doesn’t this batch of data follow the answer key?"
The friend pulled him into a mock exam room and handed him a new test paper. But he skillfully took out yesterday’s answers and even asked the teacher to restore the question numbers to the original.
The teacher asked: "Are you learning to solve problems, or just memorizing answers?"
A Yuan thought for a moment and seriously requested: "Can I just take yesterday’s test paper for life?"
Backtesting is certainly useful, but repeatedly fixing the same past segment to look good may just mean memorizing noise. Data not involved in parameter tuning is the only chance to expose this familiarity.
The market issues new test papers every day, but it’s under no obligation to accommodate our perfect score screenshots.
#Crypto #Backtesting #CryptoDaily #BTC #ETH This market is really deceptive. If you don't hold on, you almost get stopped out. Luckily, it pulled back immediately. Opening in the middle is really frustrating. Taking a bite and running, I really don't dare to think big. This kind of market is not suitable for a one-sided trend.