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#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
After Wednesday's PCE data release, the rate hike expectations for October dropped from 66% to the current 27.7%.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data release will redirect the market.
But judging from BTC's movement last night and today's rise,
the market seems to be preemptively reacting as if tonight's non-farm data will be within expectations,
with no strong or cold numbers expected.
As long as employment data does not show a strong rebound,
the probability of rate hike expectations will not rise significantly.
Therefore, if tonight's employment data is within range, the first thing to watch is whether the hourly wage is also below expectations.
If it is higher than expected, then don't be overly bullish.#Short sellers brutally wiped out! BTC surges to 86200, will tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls be a matter of life or death?
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $249 million! BTC liquidations hit $50 million, ETH liquidations $34.84 million. The key point — short liquidations reached $24.71 million, twice that of longs! A huge whale was liquidated for $29.3 million in a single order on Hyperliquid, completely fueling a short squeeze.
Why such a strong rally? ① PCE came in below expectations; ② The probability of a rate hike in October plummeted from 80% to 37%; ③ Shorts are too crowded, after breaking 84000, a chain reaction of short liquidations occurred, the higher it goes, the more buying.
But now it’s extremely dangerous!
BTC current price 86209, 15-minute RSI6 soared to 90.93 (severely overbought), KDJ all above 80. This is not healthy growth, it’s a leveraged short squeeze.
My situation is tough:
My three short grids (BTC, ETH, SOL) are still holding, originally planned to hold for half a month to a month, but the price refuses to drop. The good news is my grid liquidation prices are far away, but currently the unrealized losses are expanding.
Tonight at 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls!
Expected new jobs: 90,000. If data beats expectations, price may retrace to 84000; if it misses, the short liquidation zone at 88600 ($1.2 billion) will be triggered. But RSI is extremely overbought now, chasing the high is very risky.
Tonight’s Nonfarm, are you betting up or down?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Nonfarm #LiquidationStop just focusing on the candlestick charts!!! Do you clearly understand the basic logic behind this surge in BTC?#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
This phase of Bitcoin's strong upward movement is not simply driven by speculative funds and emotional hype, but is a synchronous resonance of three fundamental factors: macro liquidity, chip structure, and supply-demand cycle.
On the macro side, the market has priced in an anticipated marginal easing of global liquidity, continuously lifting the valuation pressure on interest-free scarce assets, opening up valuation space for a trending upward market.
On the chip side, institutional spot net inflows continue, long-term holdings and lock-ups intensify, circulating chips in the market keep shrinking, selling pressure on the market is exhausted, and even a very small incremental fund can drive a level-up rally.
On the cycle side, the halving deflation logic continues to be realized, the market supply-demand pattern is long-term imbalanced, fundamentally supporting the early-stage bull market trend in this round.There are 2 hours left, remember to deposit in Okx to quickly earn 2z
$BTC $OKB $SOL can all be deposited
The earned $2z can continue to be invested
But after several tests, to maximize profits
continuing to invest can't catch up with the returns from selling directly #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are released, with the market expecting an increase of 90,000 jobs. I expect the announced figure to focus on 80,000–100,000.
Reuters survey expects 90,000, Dow Jones survey 84,000, and this week's ADP also 90,000. Compared to last month's 162,000, I lean towards a cooling in employment, but not to the point of a sharp slowdown.
However, a decline does not equal a positive signal; the market was already anticipating a decline.
To add fuel to the rebound of BTC and ETH, if expectations are met, we still need to watch wages: if hourly wages month-over-month drop to 0.2% and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%, I would take a bullish view on this combination.
Therefore, if the employment numbers meet expectations, wages might be the key to tonight's surprise.$ETH
Suddenly realized that only China is observing the National Day holiday
So altcoins won't have any special surge
Because other stock markets are still trading normally
Liquidity is all on the chain stock sideMany people have heard the term "liquidation" and always think it's someone else's story, an extreme market accident, or just bad luck. It wasn't until the moment the message "Insufficient account funds, position forcibly closed" popped up on my screen that I realized all liquidations are never sudden crashes but the inevitable result of countless instances of luck, greed, and luck stacked together.
Before that, I always thought I was an exception. Watching the market rise and fall, listening to others' profit stories, my heart was full of restlessness and unwillingness. I thought trading relied on insight, prediction, and luck, but I completely ignored the most basic respect and restraint. At first, I just tried small positions and made a little money. That small profit was like a narcotic, completely numbing my rationality. After several consecutive profits, I became blindly confident, thinking I had figured out the market's rules and understood the logic of ups and downs.
Human greed always quietly grows in favorable conditions. After tasting sweetness, I was no longer satisfied with small plays. I started increasing my positions, trading frequently, and no longer strictly setting stop losses. Every small pullback, I held onto hope: just hold on a bit longer, the market will definitely reverse. Every time the floating loss expanded, I was unwilling to admit defeat or accept that my judgment was wrong, always thinking that as long as I could hold on, I could turn losses into profits and recover my gains. "Records of the Grand Historian · Biography of Merchants": "Without capital, one works with effort; with little, one competes with intelligence; when abundant, one competes with timing."
When I had no capital, I relied on time and labor to earn money by working. In 2017 and 2018, I was still in debt with over 50,000 yuan in online loans, but I chose not to work for others because I felt there was no future in that. I created content on self-media platforms like Jinri Toutiao, won some awards, and earned some money. Later, I built communities and sold resources, earning more money, which allowed me to pay off the online loans and have my first pot of investment capital.
Once I had some principal, I had to choose the right time to bet. For example, in the crypto world, you wait for moments like March 12, May 19, or when Bitcoin drops by half, then start buying—the more it falls, the more you buy. Such opportunities require patience and will definitely come. Many people can't wait because they don't have much money to begin with; living expenses have already consumed their capital.
When the principal is large enough, you must embrace the trends of the times. In my view, the world's trend is: those who follow prosper, those who resist perish. Crypto and AI are the two fields that most realize asset sovereignty for the people and most drive productivity and asset appreciation. All my money will only be invested in these two; I have no understanding or interest in traditional industries.Long-term bullish on $ETH, the most important thing is not to look for positive news every day, but to know what would overturn your judgment.
Being bullish on $ETH can be based on settlement demand, developer ecosystem, asset issuance, and decentralized security, but these advantages are not privileges permanently written into the price. If Layer 2 gradually reduces real dependence on the base layer, validation power continues to concentrate, and the threshold for ordinary nodes keeps rising, value capture may fall short of expectations.
Conversely, short-term price drops do not automatically overturn the long-term logic. Judgments should be updated based on verifiable conditions: whether block space is needed, whether settlement is hard to replace, whether ecosystem activity can return to the base layer, and whether governance remains open. Using only price movements to prove a point turns any analysis into chasing the market.
It is also necessary to set observation periods for positive judgments. If a direction for upgrades has not materialized for a long time, or a narrative adopted for years has not converted into real demand, it cannot be indefinitely postponed for verification. Long-termism does not eliminate time costs but allows complex systems to prove themselves within a reasonable timeframe.
True conviction is not refusing to change but clearly stating in advance under what facts you must change.$ENA This short position made a profit, but the direction wasn't what I expected.
The closing prices of the first three hourly candles after entry were all above the cost basis, with the third touching 0.2781, 3.4% higher than the entry price. At that time, the 20x short position had an unrealized loss close to 70%, but the account was still intact because isolated margin only required 1%. If it were 50x leverage, that candle would have liquidated the position.
The profit came from the following 21 hours: from 0.2723 down to this morning's low of 0.2391, with the largest single drop being 3.6%, which happened at 3 PM yesterday afternoon. I caught that move.
Looking at the bigger picture: the daily close 30 days ago was 0.1509, now it's 0.2407, nearly a 60% increase in a month; the high on September 28 was 0.2948, so this is just a pullback. This short was made during a monthly uptrend correction.
The funding rate has been +0.005% for the last few periods, meaning longs are still paying shorts; leveraged longs haven't fully cleared out. I'll discuss next steps if it breaks below 0.2391; if it recovers to 0.2691, this analysis becomes invalid. At the current level, I won't add to the short position. It's not the ETF accumulating — VanEck-related wallets just sold about $10.76 million through Gemini.
According to Odaily/ChainCatcher (Onchain Lens) on 10/2: VanEck's ETF wallet sold about $10.76 million in assets via Gemini, including approximately 45.41 BTC worth about $3.84 million and about 2,570 ETH worth about $6.91 million. Compared to the 10/1 spot ETF net outflow post, this is a single-entity ETF wallet on-chain selling data. Selling ≠ fund redemption finalized, monitoring annotation ≠ official announcement wording. At the time of writing, OKX BTC is about 86,370, ETH about 2,734. Not investment advice.4146*75x leveraged long gold Currently floating profit is about seventy to eighty percent Want to take profit but afraid it won't come back to such a low level later Want to be strategic but afraid a single candle hits stop loss then pulls back High leverage is always this painful!!
Bullish view unchanged Buy on dips !!Buy !!Buy!!$AAOI is still more comfortable playing this old American stock, repeatedly buying high at 95-110$ and selling low to do swing trading, directly making dizzy profits 😅MEGA rose about 18.5%, while open interest increased by about 66.7% in 24 hours, and the funding rate remains around -0.056%.
As of 12:04 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.05283, with a 24-hour high of $0.05615 and a low of $0.044, a volatility of about 27.6%, and a trading volume of about $5.11 million. The current price is about 5.9% below the high; the pullback after the rise has not erased the main gains.
OKEx hourly statistics show that the number of open contracts rose from about 22.29 million 24 hours ago to about 37.14 million; the current open nominal value is about $1.96 million. The perpetual price is about $0.05271, approximately 0.23% lower than the spot; the latest settlement funding rate is about -0.0565%, and the current cycle remains close to -0.0561%.
My judgment is that price increase and position expansion are occurring simultaneously, but contracts are still at a discount, and the crowded risk of contrarian positions is rising. The most common misjudgment is to take the negative funding rate directly as a guarantee of continued rise; new positions may also include hedging or chasing at high levels, so direction must be confirmed by whether the price holds key ranges.
Next, watch $0.05615 and $0.05. If open interest continues to increase when breaking the previous high and the funding rate remains significantly negative, squeeze risk will continue to accumulate; if it falls below $0.05 and open interest does not decrease, high-level leverage may turn into concentrated liquidation pressure. $MEGA Entry around $820, held for more than a month. ZEC pushed much higher than expected, but this pullback is finally giving the bears a little hope. 📉 Watch $1,350 📉 Next support around $1,250 ⚠️ $1,500 remains an important level The position is still open, so patience is still part of the game. Let price confirm the move instead of chasing every candle. #ZEC #Zcash #ShortArmyThis short was opened near $875 and has been held for roughly 6 weeks. The road has been painful, but the latest retracement is finally reducing some of the pressure. Current map: Entry: $875 Support watch: $1,280–$1,320 Resistance: $1,450 Main objective: return toward entry One position, one plan. No FOMO, no revenge trading. #ZEC #Zcash #CryptoTradingGold｜Fed officials' remarks ferment, gold prices gain support
【Cut through the noise, see the essence】
Yesterday, Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson gave a speech, and his related views continued to ferment in today's market.
He mentioned that to decide whether to continue raising interest rates, more time is needed to observe data, and there is no need to rush policy adjustments. Vice Chairman Bowman of the regulatory body also stated that there is no urgency to immediately continue raising rates.
Although neither of them completely ruled out the option of further rate hikes, leaving open the possibility of tightening again if inflation rebounds, this round of cautious statements has lowered the market's bets on another rate hike in October. U.S. Treasury yields fell, providing support for gold prices.
Fundamental contradictions still exist, and the resilience of U.S. employment remains. Officials' remarks are only short-term emotional catalysts, making it difficult for a one-sided big rally to occur; the consolidation pattern has not been broken for now.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the real core of this week; we continue to wait for employment data to be released.
All content is only a market data review and does not constitute any investment advice.
#Gold #黄金 #美联储 #非农 #行情复盘Opened the short around $860, and this position has now survived more than a month of volatility. After repeatedly getting squeezed higher, the recent weakness is finally giving the short side some breathing room. 📉 Entry: $860 🎯 First area: $1,300 ⚡ Resistance: $1,420 🔥 Break-even is getting closer As long as the position remains open, the story isn't over. Stay patient and manage risk. #ZEC #Zcash #Crypto #ShortClearly, the reasons for entering the market have all been destroyed by stop losses, so why keep holding on!!
1️⃣ The short on ZEC at 1630 had the first target clearly set at 1330, but it wasn’t held and ran away at 1430. The expected cycle target keeps shifting randomly; if it hasn’t reached it, it means the cycle isn’t complete yet, etc.!
2️⃣ As for BTC, it was well known that the four-hour retracement might hold at 0.382 or possibly at 0.5, but still tried to take a lucky short on the 15-minute chart and just got hit hard. The stop loss was triggered, turning the breakout order into a market order. The order placement was unclear; losing twice at the same position without learning, short-term trades not following the trend!
3️⃣ SOL really acted like a pig 🐷, going through a one-hour retracement, and the 15-minute downtrend structure had already changed. For short-term trades, you should follow the trend first, but instead started fantasizing about a four-hour retracement and even went heavy! Even if it exists, don’t you know the cycle isn’t complete and each cycle must be broken sequentially to reach it????
4️⃣ Haven’t even made a little profit yet and already fantasizing about villas and luxury cars, not taking the market seriously, starting to imagine drawing K-line charts yourself. Is the market yours? Does it move according to how you draw it!??!!!
Go home and honestly reflect and reform. With this lousy skill level, you’ll lose everything sooner or later!!! $BTC $ZEC $SOL $BERA Damn it! BERA's manipulator really knows how to play, repeatedly stabbing the 0.2422 level, the candlestick chart looks like an ECG, clearly just shaking the market to shake people off.
Looking at the market, the support orders around 0.2380 are as thick as a wall, the manipulator tried to break it several times but couldn't, and the volume shrank to almost nothing. In this pure capital game, no news is actually the best news, it's all about market feel.
My idea is simple: buy in batches near 0.2422, set stop loss at 0.2350, if it breaks, accept it; if not, wait for it to rise. Don't go all in, control your position.
Check the market card below yourself, quietly prepare if you want to follow, don't make it public. How do you plan to play this? 🔥
Content is only my personal review, not investment advice, control your position and always use stop loss.
👇👇👇CoinDesk reports that weaker PCE briefly pushed BTC above $85,000, but the sustained high U.S. Treasury yields have slowed the rally, indicating ongoing macro pressure above.
On the other hand, BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of $723.3 million over the past 7 trading days, with the latest single-day net inflow at $102.7 million. The capital inflow still supports the upside but is insufficient to offset interest rate and yield risks.
This entry point comes from the upper boundary of the 4-hour high-volume trading zone and overlapping multi-period moving averages. The 4-hour chart is currently still in the early stage of bottom repair and has not completed a higher-level confirmation; if the 4-hour close falls below 81,270.52, this pullback long plan fails. After exiting, do not immediately reverse to short; wait for a new reversal confirmation.
BTC is short-term bullish but not suitable for chasing highs: currently at 85,522.7 USDT, +2.02% in 24h. A better approach is to wait for a 4-hour pullback near 85,323.2 to lightly test longs, with a stop loss at 81,270.52 and the first target at 87,373.0; the current risk-reward ratio is about 0.51, suitable only for light positions and not an ideal aggressive entry point.Green Hair is not a trader
Nor a crypto circle drifter
$BTC: One trade with 100x full position, opened at 84600
Opened a 29x position at 9 AM, after two or three hours
BTC's price rose less than 1%
He earned over 3000 U.
Why?
At 75x, 100x leverage, even a slight price sneeze doubles the principal.
One trade directly made 91%.
This is not about betting on direction, it's about betting on life.
If the market doesn't move as you expect, it can liquidate you instantly.
So, he's not a crypto circle drifter,
He just opened the right position at the right time.
Essentially, he's a gambler, just one who knows better than most gamblers when to bet.It crashed, it crashed, brothers, after waiting so many days, it finally started to accelerate.
Look at this daily chart, $ZEC dropped from 1697 all the way down to 1329, a 370-point decline, all moving averages diverging downward, and the MACD green bars are still expanding. This is not a correction, this is the trend being realized.
I entered a short at 1549, 30x leverage, with an unrealized profit of 423%. Honestly, I haven't been watching the market closely this time because I already saw everything I needed to see early on.
Today I just want to add one signal I haven't mentioned before — the ZEC contract funding rate has been negative for nearly a week straight, meaning shorts have been paying longs.
The price has dropped this much, yet the funding rate remains negative, what does that indicate?
It means shorts are in no hurry to close positions, and longs are still holding on stubbornly. Once this structure breaks, the stampede will be very fast.
Another signal is the on-chain active addresses, which have dropped 23% over seven days.
Fewer people are playing, volume hasn't picked up, and the price holding up until today before accelerating is already giving some respect.
Going forward, continue holding, target 1300, if broken then look at 1200. Don't ask me when to exit, wait for my signal. If you want to follow, manage your position size carefully; if you don't want to follow, don't come back asking me why I didn't warn you after it drops to 1200.
$BTC $ETH
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 The order book liquidity is severely depleted. Bitcoin is wobbling around this support level, and the contract positions remain completely unchanged, clearly showing no one is willing to take over at this price. The main players have symbolically placed some buy orders below to lure retail investors into going long. Once enough orders accumulate, they flip the position with a spike to sweep liquidity. Right now, the funding rate is shockingly flat, with no impulse even to try for a rebound. Since there’s no momentum, it’s best to keep your money in your pocket and absolutely avoid impulsively jumping in to help the main players catch the bag here.
$TAO $RENDER $NEAR Watching the $AAVE chart is a bit confusing; the short position is still holding, and the price keeps pushing up, now at 176.91, drifting further away from my opening average price of 163.71.
The overall market $BTC has only risen slightly, but $AAVE is strengthening on its own, with gains directly hitting 3.25%, completely an independent trend. I've been struggling internally whether to open a hedge to manage the risk.
On one hand, I'm afraid of a continued breakout, with the price going higher and losses expanding further; on the other hand, I'm worried this rally might just be a short-term bull trap. If I add a hedge and the market reverses, both sides lose, resulting in double damage.
The hardest part of trading contracts is moments like this, when the directional judgment is already wrong, and every move feels like a gamble. Adding positions risks increasing losses, hedging risks losses on both sides, and holding steady means enduring a continuously expanding unrealized loss.
The market never provides a standard answer; every position opened is a game against uncertainty.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 $RESOLV
Today it surged 15 points, ranking in the middle of the gainers list.
Contract open interest increased by 52% in a single day, the long-to-short account ratio is 3.43, and retail investors are almost unanimously going long.
With open interest piling up so fast, those chasing the highs are likely to be left holding the bag; I’m staying out for now, will consider it again when the pullback shows reduced volume. $RESOLV
$RESOLV #Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
According to foreign media reports, Claude's parent company Anthropic plans to start its IPO roadshow in mid-November, striving to complete the listing before the US Thanksgiving. It is expected to become one of the largest IPOs in history, with market valuation expectations ranging from $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion. The company has postponed its listing multiple times before, and the current timetable still has uncertainties.
Personal view
This is a milestone event in the AI sector. OpenAI chose not to go public, while Anthropic is taking the lead in entering the secondary market, representing top-tier large model companies officially accepting public market pricing. In the short term, this will drive sentiment in global AI computing power and AI application sectors, and will also indirectly affect capital expectations for crypto AI-related tokens.
However, it should be viewed rationally. Behind the high valuation are sustained huge losses. The company needs to continuously invest in computing power procurement, and profitability has not yet been realized. In a high interest rate environment, a giant IPO will divert market liquidity, with a large amount of capital being withdrawn, which may instead suppress risk assets.
The news is an emotional catalyst, not a signal of trend reversal. The main market focus still depends on US Treasury yields. Do not simply go heavily long based on AI benefits alone; AI-themed pulse rallies are frequent, and benefits are easily realized and cashed out. Going forward, focus on tracking the financial data disclosed in the prospectus and institutional subscription status.Why is $AAVE flying so high?!
Looking back, when Aave was hacked, it was actually the best time to build a position; opportunities arise in crises.
Why didn't I act then? Because after two cycles of bull and bear markets, I had ruled out altcoins and only wanted to accumulate the most certain Bitcoin!
But now it seems like I was too dismissive; quality altcoins still exist. During bear markets, it's indeed possible to hold small positions.
As for now, I'm still hesitant to buy these quality altcoins. Patience is key—reduce trading and wait for a relatively good entry point.
Currently holding small positions in altcoins like $HYPE and $BNB The market situation is already very clear.
ETH daily chart has shown nearly 10 consecutive days of small doji candles alternating between bullish and bearish, with continuously shrinking volume. Prolonged sideways movement at a high level with declining volume is a very dangerous precursor to a trend reversal.
I believe the reversal window is within the next 5 days, and the probability of a downward waterfall is very high.
Around 3 PM yesterday afternoon, there was already a wave of heavy volume sell-off, revealing the main force's intention; last night's weak rebound in BTC looked more like a final cover retreat.
In my own test portfolio, nearly 60% of people still believe in a bull market. This scenario is one I've seen every time after I escape the top.
When most people truly admit the bear market has arrived, it has often already dropped significantly.
Currently, the bullish side lacks volume, price, and capital support, while the bearish side's timing, volume, and position are gradually resonating. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Evernorth shareholders have approved, about 473 million XRP in the treasury is expected to be listed on Nasdaq XRPN on 10/8, current price about 1.505. I'll observe first and not chase.
Seen: The merger is expected to settle on 10/7, with related cash fundraising about $300 million, stating that the holding will be about 473 million XRP at that time (approximately $710 million at current price).
Regarding spot XRP-ETF, net inflow on 10/1 was about $4.06 million (Franklin XRPZ led the inflow), while BTC/ETH/SOL still had net outflows on the same day.
The coin price only bounced from about 1.487 to about 1.505, 24-hour range about 1.474–1.511, very narrow volatility.
Simply put: It's like "the token itself is sideways, the equity channel opens first," the story is on the US stock side, the coin price hasn't followed yet.
I think short-term don't chase this one or two point rebound, volatility will be greater around the listing date, it's not worth catching a falling knife now.
The treasury narrative is a mid-term theme, not equal to the spot immediately pulling out a trend.
What I do: just observe, don't chase.
If invalid, watch for a break below about 1.474, the recent 24-hour low to continue down, or a candle that re-stabilizes above about 1.511 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for XRPN to really open before pricing, or do you think the treasury narrative is strong enough to start accumulating XRP now?
$XRP $BTC $ETH
#September non-farm payrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations become the focus #US debt yield keeps hitting new highs, long-term rate pressure not eased🌪️On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the calm before the storm!
PCE missed expectations, causing a brief rebound in coin prices, but bond yields remain high, and the main event is tomorrow night's non-farm payrolls!
If employment data strengthens, rate cut expectations will cool down, putting pressure on the market📉
$BTC ｜Current price 84194
ETF continues net inflows, institutions are hoarding coins.
Support at 83100, resistance at 84900, range-bound and very frustrating.
$ETH ｜Current price 2717
Following Bitcoin's fluctuations, ETF funds are flowing out.
2660 is the long-short dividing line, holding short positions at 2671 waiting for the non-farm direction.
$SOL
ETF has had continuous buying support for several weeks, block production is accelerating, with huge elasticity❗
Non-farm volatility will increase, risks cannot be ignored.
💡Key reminder:
Friday's data may set the mid-term direction, opportunities should be waited for, not rushed.
Before the data, keep light positions, use stop losses, and avoid betting on one-sided moves!
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Don't rush to set a direction for $ALICE yet. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts are still conflicting, and this is when it's easiest to mistake a rebound for a reversal.
The 1-hour chart is weak with an RSI of 46, while the 4-hour chart is strong with an RSI of 64. Short-term sentiment and the larger timeframe structure are not aligned. In such situations, rebounds are often misread as reversals, and gear shifts can be mistaken for market tops.
Current price is 0.1936, about 14.15% above the 1-hour support at 0.1662, and about 27.43% below the resistance at 0.2467. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 0.2467 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.1662, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.1456. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.2467 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
If you had to choose only one timeframe to judge, would you choose the 1-hour or the 4-hour?
The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the market and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.Brothers! $BTC this wave of the market is quite interesting, the price is rising, and the funding rate has turned negative. Is this the start of a short squeeze?
30min K-line analysis shows the current price has already risen above the upper Bollinger Band, MACD continues upward, all moving averages are in bullish alignment, and the short-term bullish structure remains optimistic.
But what makes me cautious is the Open Interest (OI), which keeps pushing up, yet the funding rate has turned negative.
This indicates a large influx of shorts on the contract side, but the price is still rising, further proving there is support on the spot side.
When funds are flowing in, I don’t like to guess where the top is. The first resistance at 85300 has already been broken, with a trend to hold above it.
85500 awaits further confirmation; if it breaks and holds, we can continue to look upward, but around 87000 will be a major hurdle, and breaking through might not be so easy.
I’m very familiar with this kind of market; I’ve suffered many losses here.
Because it’s easy to have a short squeeze, first igniting the bullish sentiment, clearing out shorts on one side, attracting bulls on the other, and finally swallowing the new trend-following bulls with a downward move.
If a wick appears next and MACD volume suddenly expands, the short-term market might have peaked.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only! AAVE cost over $160, now the price is $176.59. I have 100, so I earned 16 x 100 = $1600, enough for a big meal during National Day.
There's a saying in trading: sell when you least want to!
Right now, I don't want to sell. I think it can go up to $300, and maybe even $1000 in the future, since Standard Chartered has already made promises.
The difference between humans and machines is that machines don't consider whether you can reach $300 or $100; they just execute emotionless programs. I definitely want to achieve quantitative trading.
Trading must be like this too, so I decided to sell 80, only taking profits within my own understanding. The rest of the profits you guys can earn. The main reason I sell is because I'm afraid you won't be able to buy cheap chips. This behavior of mine is called self-sacrifice for others!#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
Many people look at the positions of big players, and their first reaction is to count how many types of coins they have bought. But what’s really worth pondering is why they only heavily hold these two.
Position structure: ETH as the base, BTC as the spearhead
This 161 million portfolio’s core logic isn’t complicated — use ETH to stabilize the account’s base, and use BTC to bet on directional flexibility.
On the ETH side, 34,000 coins with 25x full position long, it’s the largest portion of the entire account. Its significance isn’t in how high the leverage is, but that the liquidation price is pressed down to around 2550, leaving a wide enough buffer zone in between to withstand fluctuations without being forced out. This is a "ballast stone" style position design.
On the BTC side, 546 coins with 40x full position long, the leverage is obviously more aggressive. But with an opening price of 84548 and a liquidation price of 75542, the nearly 9000-point space in between shows he’s not gambling on short-term direction, but using high leverage for flexibility while using a deep buffer for fault tolerance. This is a "spearhead" style position — responsible for offense but not easily broken with one strike.
As for small positions like HYPE, they account for a very small proportion and seem more like an emotional outlet outside the mainstream; profits are a bonus, losses don’t hurt much.
The real signal: he only places heavy bets on the mainstream
The most notable aspect of this layout isn’t the leverage multiples, but the concentration of targets. $ETH $BTC $SOL #Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
Anthropic going public means AI on Nasdaq is about to draw blood from crypto
Roadshow during the week of November 9, ringing the bell before Thanksgiving, valuation at $1.8–2 trillion, revenue $4.6 billion, operating loss $8 billion, net loss $42 billion with $34 billion being accounting magic—but the market doesn't care, Wall Street wants a ticket to the “AI Maotai.”
Three possible market scenarios:
High valuation issuance → risk assets party wildly, BTC surges, AI Agent / computing power / RWA get lifted by US stocks, altcoins go crazy one last time;
Average pricing / break below issue price → the term “AI bubble” is confirmed, NVDA shakes, BTC pulls back, AI concept coins get halved first;
Delay → worse than break below issue price, indicating big money is afraid to catch the falling knife, liquidity tightens, contract traders collectively pay tuition.
Don't believe AI and crypto are unrelated
What’s being priced now isn’t on-chain TPS, but whether Wall Street is willing to move pensions to buy Claude. If it succeeds, AI coins have a six-month story; if it crashes, the whole market first kills valuations before talking about faith.
10/14 San Francisco investor meeting = the first signal flare.
After that day, watch three things:
① NVDA pre-market
② OKX WLD/FET/$RNDR trading volume
③ Whether BTC has already priced in good news and stops rising我們來整理一下操作上可以怎麼做吧 這次短線的走勢，比較符合我們之前的說法。比特幣之前說可以做多，現在已經快到當初討論的止盈點位；SOL 彈回 120 一帶，瑞波幣回到 1.5 上方。方向都跟之前一樣，只是要等時間讓它跑出來。以下價位都沒有變，圖是日線。 《比特幣》偏多 83,000～83,500 做多（當時現價也可輕倉） 止盈 86,000 加碼 81,000 止損 78,000 現價約 85,500，接近止盈。後續我不再另外給看法，到了 86,000 可以考慮止盈；如果跌回去，止損照做。 《以太幣》上下都等 反彈到 2,780 一帶做空（空單停損沒另外給，自己控管） 2,650 小量做多，2,600 補 2,400 跌破，多單停損 現價約 2,718，還在兩個價位中間。 《Solana》偏空 空單 120 附近 補單 125 防守 140 現價約 121，已經在 120 附近的空單區；日線上方 125 左右是 Weak High。 《狗狗幣》偏空 空單 0.1 補單 0.11 防守 0.12 現價約 0.0947，離 0.1 還有五趴多。 《瑞波幣》偏多 進場 1.5 附近 第一止盈Market Commentary｜Don't try to tame ETH; the range is playing both bulls and bears
People say they want to control Ethereum, but the market action is not influenced by sentiment at all. It repeatedly pushes up to 2730 only to be knocked down, then falls back and firmly holds at 2690, occasionally probing 2670. The whole day it just oscillates within a 20-30 point range.
Many think they've figured out the consolidation pattern and believe that by identifying the highs and lows they can repeatedly profit. But this narrow grinding range is the most exhausting. Although the range seems volatile, after deducting fees and slippage, the actual profit you can pocket with a small principal is pitifully little.
Now, thinking of shorting after it rises is a big trap. If it really rallies to a high level and breaks through 2738 with volume stimulated by the non-farm payroll data, it will trigger a short squeeze. Chasing shorts at the top will get buried halfway.
Don't subjectively expect it to "drop properly"; it's not that Ethereum is deliberately opposing the bears, but that the bulls and bears are evenly matched here. There is selling pressure from trapped longs above and buying support below. Without any news catalyst, it will keep sweeping back and forth.
Don't be fooled by the apparent range pattern; the consolidation can choose a direction at any time. It will either break through the upper resistance with volume to open up upside space or smash through the 2650 support to start a pullback.
It's better to wait for a breakout and follow the trend than to subjectively predict "short after it rises." With non-farm payrolls approaching, spikes will directly pierce your imagined entry points.
$ETHHow many people were stunned by this midday surge? $SOL was forcibly pulled from 116.6 to 120.4. On the surface, it looks like a positive effect from the SOL ETF's net inflow of 270 million in September, but behind the scenes, the shorts were brutally squeezed to death by negative fees. The long-short ratio dropped to 1.58; the more retail investors short, the harder the whale pumps.
But we have to be rational: the non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 20:30, with heavy resistance at the previous high of 121.84. With such severe overbought conditions, chasing the price here is like catching a flying knife. Bitcoin at 84800 hasn't stabilized yet either.
The more the frenzy, the more cautious we must be. For tonight's non-farm data, do you think the market will short squeeze first or kill the longs first?
#Cryptocurrency #NonFarm #BTC #西联推出稳定币卡，接入Solana生态 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 BTC latest price is about $85,292 【Recent Support】 (First short-term defense line)
🎯 First support: $84,000-84,100, recently the price has repeatedly tested this range sideways, short-term bulls will defend here
🎯 Second support: $83,000-83,300, breaking below here indicates weakness
🎯 Key support: $82,500-82,800 (lowest in the past 7 days $82,581), this is the short-term lifeline for this round; breaking it likely leads to further decline
✨✨✨✨✨
【Deep Support】 (Pullback buying opportunity)
🎯 Strong support: $80,000-80,900, previous dense trading area with strong buying pressure
🎯 Iron bottom reference: $78,000-79,000, multiple rebounds here within 30 days; if it falls to this range, this is where I dare to call a test of the bottom
✨✨✨✨✨
【Resistance Above】
🎯 $85,500-86,000 must be broken first to talk about further rally; above that, look at $87,000-87,300
✨✨✨✨✨
【My Trading Reference】
🎯 Currently at $85,292 near resistance, do not chase the high. If you want to enter, place orders in two batches at $84,000 and $82,500; stop loss and exit if it breaks below $82,500 Regarding Bitcoin, due to the decline in US Treasury yields, it has held the support level these past two days and started to rebound. Considering the ETF data and the capital flow in the crypto market, there is a divergence between the data and the price trend, especially with the volatility the day before yesterday, where there was a significant large net outflow of funds.
However, a single day's net outflow does not indicate much; subsequent ETF capital inflows suggest that Wednesday's net outflow was merely a turnover.Everyone expects $BTC to keep going up, but I’m staying bearish. I already closed half my short around $82,800, locking in roughly 1,500 points. I’m holding the remaining half because I still expect a pullback. I don’t trade every move or chase squeezes. I simply trade the direction I believe in. Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls could be the key catalyst. If volatility hits,$BTC may finally show whether this rally has real strength. What’s your view—continuation or pullback? #USJobsDataToday #Anthro我們來看一下狗狗幣的部分。 這邊的方向跟之前一樣，偏空，價格還沒到，就等時間讓它跑出來。這篇把最新的盤面和消息補上。 價位整理： Ⅰ 空單：0.1。 Ⅱ 加碼：0.11。 Ⅲ 停損：0.12。 這一輪比特幣往上推到 85,000 以上，Solana 也反彈了兩個多趴，可是狗狗幣只在 0.0947 附近，今天漲不到半趴。OKX 過去 24 小時的區間是 0.0931 到 0.09608，上下大約只有三趴，比昨晚的區間還窄。距離 0.1 的空單價位，大約還有五趴多。 大盤上漲、它卻跟得很少，代表這個位置的追價力道不強。對我們的計畫來說，沒什麼需要改的：價格沒到 0.1，就不用急著做空；真的彈到 0.1，再照價位進場，往上到 0.11 補，0.12 出場。方向跟之前一樣，只是要等時間讓它跑出來；如果價格往上走到 0.12，就要做好止損的準備。 技術面，日線圖。今天這根日 K 目前開 0.09433、高 0.09486、低 0.09311，截圖時 0.09475，盤中有往下試到紅線 0.09309 附近，之後拉回。上方的強高點在 0.118，再下來是一段紅色區，下緣 0.111、上緣 0.11Yesterday I was mocked by the group, today watch me prove them wrong: 30U challenges 360U.
Yesterday I said to short $CAP, many brothers still thought I was wrong, thought I would get liquidated, thought it would still rise.
But what about today? Hasn't it fallen?
Why did I short CAP? Because I know this CAP has limited upside and huge downside potential.
The daily chart showed continuous rallies, a 27% increase in 24 hours, hitting 0.08423 with a long upper shadow, showing heavy selling pressure above; the market has already given the answer.
Such a sharp rally in a new coin, once the funds fail to continue, the drop becomes a stampede.
I entered the short at 0.0825 early yesterday morning.
Now it's already profitable.
Currently, I don't plan to exit.
Stop loss is still set at 0.087, take profit initially at 0.06, if it breaks below then look at 0.05; the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
The current price is already at 0.073. This decline has just begun, and the logic is being fulfilled step by step.
This time I just want to stick to disciplined trading, no heavy positions, no all-in, no blind trades, starting over with 30U.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Wow, Citi suddenly switched from bearish to bullish! BTC is predicted to rise to 113,000, and ETH is expected to reach 3028. Even more astonishing, the ETF net inflow forecast jumped directly from 0 to 5 billion! Plus, they believe that the failure of the CLARITY Act is actually pushing the SEC to speed up the release of friendly regulations. Brothers, how much do you trust this institutional forecast? 👇$BTC Trade Review Rebuttal: Don't attribute profits to the asset and blame losses solely on the market; the root cause is mixing full-position leverage together
Watching BTC and SOL gain, while ZEC keeps bleeding, many think it's because ZEC's market is weak, but the real issue isn't the coin—it's the position structure that planted the trap.
$BTC with 20X full-position leverage shows floating profits and looks stable, but the full-position mode itself is a double-edged sword. When the market rises, it can slowly accumulate profits, but once a deep spike hits, these profits can instantly evaporate, even causing large losses. The so-called "stabilizing anchor" is just an illusion given by the current market.
$SOL with isolated 20X leverage does protect profits for this position, but isolated profits don't mean the strategy is invincible. SOL is highly volatile, and 20X leverage leaves very little room for error. A quick pullback can wipe out these short-term gains in an instant.
$ZEC is the core problem this time—not because the coin dropped the most, but because ZEC was opened with 20X full-position leverage. In full-position mode, there is no "single isolated position"; account funds are interconnected. Once floating losses breach the margin, they continuously consume floating profits from other positions. Even if BTC and SOL keep rising, as long as ZEC keeps falling, the hard-earned profits will be gradually eaten away.
Don't expect the market to turn around and save trapped positions. High-leverage full-position holding means that even a slight market reversal won't just lose that one position; it will drag the entire account down.
Don't be fooled by current positive returns. Volatility can spike anytime before the non-farm payrolls. Mixing multiple coins with full-position leverage means profits are earned separately per position, but losses are paid by the entire account.
$BTC $SOL $ZECYou might not have heard of $QNT, but whales have already bought it to a historic record.
Santiment monitoring shows that QNT recorded 645 whale transactions over $100,000 in a single day, the highest ever.
There is only one reason: On September 24, the US clearinghouse The Clearing House officially selected Quant to provide technical support for its "on-chain currency program." TCH is jointly owned by 25 major US banks and processes trillions of dollars in payments daily. They chose QNT, not ETH, not SOL.
The total supply of QNT is only 14.88 million. The supply side is extremely scarce.
Last week, QNT surged 287%, soaring from around $70 to $373.
What’s even more worth noting are the on-chain signals.
Whales who had been dormant for over 3 years transferred nearly $10 million worth of tokens to exchanges after the surge. Addresses inactive for 3 years being awakened by price usually means there’s more drama to come.
My judgment is straightforward: QNT is not a short-term speculation; institutions are genuinely buying an undervalued infrastructure with real money.
BTC and ETH are both oscillating within ranges, and liquidity is migrating from mainstream assets to institution-backed infrastructure. QNT is the core target of this migration. With a supply of 14.88 million, once demand from the banking side continues to release, the upside is not measured in just a few percentage points.
A pullback to 240-250 is an opportunity; if it falls below 200, then we can reconsider the outlook.
$BTC $ETH Market Panorama: The More It Rises, The More Confused It Gets, Both Bulls and Bears Are Suffering
The market keeps surging upward, and the divergence among participants has reached its peak. Many are starting to fantasize about ETH jumping straight from 2700 to 3000, BTC holding steady at 85000, and voices about hitting 100,000 by year-end are emerging again.
On the other hand, bears are having a tough time. Those with small positions holding without stop-losses are now on the brink of collapse. Every upward spike squeezes the survival space of those holding short positions, and the short squeeze atmosphere is growing stronger.
An interesting point is that $XAU gold has completely diverged from cryptocurrencies. Previously, gold surged to 4700 while BTC was at 78000 and ETH at 2400, showing synchronized movement; now gold has dropped below 4200, but crypto has climbed to 85000 and 2700.
The essence is capital differentiation: with US Treasury yields high, gold as a non-yielding asset remains under pressure, while crypto benefits from ETF narratives and contract short squeezes, forming a collective rebound independent of traditional safe-haven and risk assets, which have completely separated.
Those bullish dare not chase recklessly, and those shorting without stop-losses are suffering terribly. Many traders, including myself, are still alive, but this repeated tug-of-war market is far from comfortable.
All variables hinge on tonight's non-farm payroll data.
Don't be fooled by short-term rebounds; the 100,000 BTC and 3000 ETH by year-end are just market fantasies, not predetermined scripts. Once the short squeeze reverses due to data, the pullback will be equally fierce.
Don't blindly chase longs at high levels, and don't stubbornly hold shorts without stop-losses. Wait for the data release and the market to give the real answer before making your choice.
$BTC $ETH
#InterestRateHikeExpectationsDelayed, SeptemberNonFarmPayrollsBecomeNextKey ePBS does not eliminate builders; what it changes is who must trust whom
One of the core changes in Glamsterdam is separating proposers and builders in the protocol. Today's validators can outsource block building to external infrastructure, but the process involves additional software and trust interfaces; ePBS aims to make this division part of the consensus rules. It does not make professional builders disappear, nor does it automatically solve transaction ordering, centralization, or censorship issues. The change is that when validators verify build commitments and block delivery, they no longer have to fully rely on the goodwill of a particular external relay for security. For $ETH, such infrastructure upgrades rarely generate direct revenue like launching an application, but they determine whether the network can maintain reliable block production after expanding block capacity. If the market sees the term “PBS” and interprets it as complete disintermediation, it will overestimate the problems a single upgrade can solve. A more accurate assessment is that Ethereum incorporates the existing professional division of labor into verifiable rules while continuing to face the unfinished challenge of builder market concentration.
In the future, evaluations of ePBS should focus on whether relay dependency, block delivery failure rates, and builder concentration have materially changed, rather than just whether the functionality is online.#Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
The boss has something to say
Anthropic's IPO is accelerating. On October 14th investor day, marketing will start the week of November 9th, aiming to list before Thanksgiving, with a valuation between 1.8 trillion and 2 trillion USD.
Broadcom has provided a maximum financing arrangement of 42 billion USD to support computing infrastructure. Previously, the computing power agreement with SpaceX was up to 84.5 billion. The computing power bills keep piling up.
But look at the fundamentals. Revenue in 2025 is 4.59 billion, operating loss exceeds 8 billion, long-term infrastructure commitments are 518 billion. Spending 7.3 billion to earn 4.5 billion, the gap is still widening. Now adding 42 billion in financing again, how this account adds up, the market will weigh it itself.
For the crypto market, this is indirectly bearish. AI giant IPOs continue to attract funds, risk capital stays in hardware and cloud infrastructure, liquidity is drained from BTC and altcoins. The Fed just raised rates, long-term US bonds yield over 5.6%, macro pressure remains.
I took profits on BTC longs at 82,800 twice and 83,000 once, now flat. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are key. ADP employment at 90,000 beats expectations; if nonfarm is also strong, rate hike expectations will heat up again, pressuring BTC. If weaker, the probability of no rate hike in October is higher.
No directional bets before nonfarm data, wait for data to settle before positioning.
No chasing highs or selling lows, wait for signals. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop losses set, good luck.