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📰 【Ronin Portal will close its wallet on October 16, users must migrate assets before the deadline】
According to Rhythm News, on October 2, the Ronin Portal wallet will cease service. Users must complete asset transfers before the final migration deadline on October 16; otherwise, assets left in the Portal wallet may become inaccessible. This migration mainly involves users who use social login, keyless, or multi-party computation wallets. Users can choose to migrate assets to Ronin Vault, which supports email or social login, or transfer to the Ronin wallet protected by a mnemonic phrase. Users who only use the mnemonic phrase wallet are not affected by this migration. Additionally, bAXS and badges need to be handled through A……
The wallet narrative is fading; the biggest fear is not missing an airdrop but having completed tasks with assets still locked in a semi-abandoned gateway. Keyless and social login experiences are smooth, but when a project stops service, migration becomes a physical task. If you still have old wallets, take some time to clear them out yourself; don’t wait until the last few days. What deprecated pitfalls have you recently encountered?👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $SUI 耐克 NIKE 这份财报后，我更倾向未来两到四周股价仍会承压。公司预计本财年赚的钱比分析师目前列出的估计少，25亿美元节省计划又要累计到2031财年。短期要扭转股价，销售恢复的证据比省钱计划的规模更重要。这里讨论的是纽交所股票$NKE 。 10月1日公布的2027财年第一季度，耐克每股赚0.48美元，高于Nasdaq列出的0.43美元季度预期。单看这一季还不错，全年指引却只有1.15至1.35美元，Nasdaq目前列出的全年一致预期是1.61美元。 公司给出的中点1.25美元比这个预期低约22%，而且已经剔除了约每股0.15美元的重组开支。就算暂时不算重组的花费，耐克预计赚的钱仍然没赶上分析师的估计。单季表现好一点，还撑不起全年已经转好的判断。 假如投资者对每一美元利润愿意付的价格不变，预期利润少了，股价也会受压。不过22%是盈利预期的差距，不能换算成股价还要跌22%。 股价已经先跌了一段。Nasdaq在10月2日美东时间8:13的盘前报价约32.50美元，较上一交易日收盘跌7.54%。这份财报已经让一部分担忧反映到价格里，接下来是否继续跌，还得看盈利预测和估值怎么变。这个报价是盘前快ETF keeps receiving funds, and 473 million XRP are also going to be listed on Nasdaq, $XRP Why is the price still not rising?
Currently, there are many positive factors for XRP, but the price is still stuck around $1.5.
The spot XRP ETF has recently continued to see net inflows,
with about $7.24 million inflow on October 1, and cumulative net inflows approaching $1.79 billion.
Moreover, Evernorth shareholders have approved the merger, and XRPN is expected to be listed on Nasdaq on October 8.
At that time, Evernorth is expected to hold about 473 million XRP, along with approximately $300 million in cash financing.
But here’s the problem:
With so much money and so many XRP, why is the coin price still hovering around $1.5?
Because these positives are currently more about providing demand expectations and have not yet turned into actual incremental buying.
So now I suggest not chasing the story of “XRP taking off immediately.”
On the chart:
$1.49–$1.51 is the first support; $1.53–$1.57 is short-term resistance;
Only a real breakthrough above $1.60 will open the chance to reach $1.65–$1.70.
If it can’t even break $1.57, it means the market is still waiting.
And the official trading of XRPN on October 8 will actually be a very good test point:
Whether institutions really start to grab XRP, or everyone is just speculating in advance? #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 GRASS: Up 66% in seven days, the AI sector's fire is still burning
Price $0.686, 24h +12.7%. Don't just look at one day—7 days +65.8%, 1 month +89.5%, 180 days +142.6%. This is among the fastest-growing in AI/DePIN.
First, the fundamentals. GRASS operates in the AI data layer: collecting users' idle bandwidth and computing power to feed AI model training, with users earning returns. It's part of the Solana ecosystem, a real business, not just storytelling. Circulating supply 243 million, total supply 1 billion—small cap, high flexibility.
Next, the market:
- 24h trading volume $75.1 million, contract volume ranks first across the network, open interest 7.62 million—very strong volume;
- 24h liquidations: shorts cut $106,000, longs only $56,000—bears are taking hits.
Strong gains, large volume, shorts repeatedly liquidated—this pattern is most likely to excite people. But 180 days up 142%, sentiment and leverage are both high. How long the AI narrative can hold and whether the data layer business can deliver, no one can guarantee.
Good opportunities are bought when others fear. Now? More chasing highs, less fear. No answers, only respect.
#AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 $GRASS ZEC suddenly accelerates its decline; the real warning signs are not just a large bearish candle, but three signals starting to resonate together
The price has fallen from $1697 all the way down to $1329, a single-stage drop of over 20%. The daily moving averages are diverging downward, the MACD green bars continue to expand, and the short-term trend is clearly weakening.
What is more noteworthy is that the contract funding rate has been negative for nearly a week. The price continues to fall, and shorts are still willing to pay funding costs, indicating that market sentiment remains bearish. However, this also means that if a rebound occurs, short covering could amplify volatility.
On-chain data is also cooling down, with active addresses dropping about 23% over 7 days, indicating decreasing participation. Price decline, reduced activity, and sustained negative funding rates—these three signals combined make ZEC's short-term risk significantly higher than before.
Next, focus on the $1300 and $1200 levels. If $1300 does not hold, the market may continue to seek the next support level; if a volume-backed rebound occurs, be wary of concentrated short covering.
A true trending market is not just about price falling fast, but about funding, activity, and sentiment all weakening simultaneously. $ZEC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $ETH Nonfarm payrolls tonight, I subjectively lean bullish on ETH
The market expects about 90,000 new jobs added; if the data continues to weaken, rate cut expectations will rise, and risk assets could easily surge again.
But tonight I won't pre-guess the data, just watch the market:
If 2778 holds → go long, target 2807.
If 2740 breaks → stop out.
If 2720 breaks down → go short.
The most costly thing about nonfarm is not missing out, but guessing the direction right and then getting stabbed by a sudden spike. 🍇#BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turn to outflows, cooling capital heat BTC and ETH spot ETFs have simultaneously turned to net outflows, with cumulative outflows of 173 million and 55.4 million USD respectively, indicating a clear cooling of capital heat. However, prices have instead surged nearly 3%, and this "volume-price divergence" suggests the rebound is not driven by spot buying but is more likely due to short covering or the market preemptively speculating on a non-farm payroll positive, with sustainability in doubt.
For spot players, the impact is direct: profit-taking scale has risen to a yearly high, indicating spot holders are distributing at highs, and selling pressure is real. ETF capital withdrawal means institutional marginal buying is weakening, making chasing gains at this point very low in cost-effectiveness.
In terms of operation, this rebound is a window to reduce positions rather than a signal to add. Don't be tempted by intraday gains; keep enough cash and wait for the non-farm payroll release before making decisions. If the data confirms positive, it may turn into a "sell the fact" pullback; if negative, it will directly continue to fall. At this stage, defense is more important than offense.Citibank has adjusted its forecast multiple times this year, with the BTC target price dropping from $143,000 to $82,000, and now being raised again to $113,000.
This indicates that Wall Street's target price depends more on model assumptions such as ETF fund flows, macro liquidity, and regulation, rather than being a stable and unchanging price prediction.Nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 tonight, my alarm is already set
To be honest, I really can't predict this data
Bearish signals: Consumer confidence has collapsed to the lowest since 2014, job vacancies hit a five-month low, corporate hiring intentions dropped to a fifteen-year low, and tech company layoffs surged 77% in one month.
Bullish signals: Corporate layoffs hit a four-year low for the same period, initial jobless claims at 197,000, nearly back to 1969 levels. The ADP report the day before yesterday showed 90,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations.
See the dilemma? Employers are neither laying off nor hiring; the entire job market is frozen. They don't dare lay off for fear of not being able to rehire. They don't dare hire because the 5.3% interest rate is too high. This kind of frozen market can be tipped by just one data point.
I tend to bet on weakness.
Confidence, vacancies, and hiring intentions—all three indicators are sliding down; I don't believe they will suddenly strengthen tonight. But I also don't dare bet too heavily; that 90,000 ADP number is specifically a slap in the face to people like me.
The market means that Bitcoin has been consolidating within a triangle for three days, between 82,800 and 85,200, just waiting for tonight's trigger. If the data is weak, rate hike expectations will drop further, and the price will look to rise to 85,200. If the data is strong, stagflationists will revive, and 82,800 will take a hit first. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Core Long-Short Logic
Dimension 📈 Bullish Signals 📉 Bearish Risks
Capital Flow ETF single-day inflow of 113,000; some inflows may come from basis arbitrage, non-directional buying
Technical Aspect Trend structure intact, above the 200-day moving average at $14,500; MACD momentum exhaustion; RSI near overbought; strong resistance at $86,900
Order Flow Short liquidations of $327 million provide short-term momentum; OI decline + active buy-sell ratio 0.594, shorts covering rather than new longs entering
Macro Jefferson's cautious remarks ease rate hike concerns; Non-farm payroll data to be released soon, if exceeding expectations it will suppress risk assets $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Impact of Non-Farm Payrolls on Ethereum
1) Soft data: New jobs 70,000–100,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, hourly wages not surging
Market interpretation: Cooling employment but no recession → October rate hike probability continues to decline
US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens → Risk assets rebound
ETH: First a dip then strengthening, support at 2670–2700 holds → Targeting 2760 / 2820 / 2900
ETH ETF: Net inflows expected to resume in the next few trading days, but strength depends on whether BTC breaks out with volume $110M in crypto shorts got wiped out in just 10 minutes. 😳
That tells you something about today’s move.
A lot of traders were positioned for downside — then $BTC pushed higher and forced those shorts to close.
That added more buying pressure to the move.
But here’s the part I’d watch:
If the rally keeps going after the short squeeze fades, that’s more meaningful.
If it stalls once forced buying is over, traders need to be careful.
Don’t just watch the pump.
Watch what happens
$BTC #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 Satellites, 4 TPUs: Google sends AI computing power to space, ground "power shortage anxiety" officially hits orbit
On October 1st, at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, SpaceX's Falcon 9 Transporter-18 soared into the sky. The most eye-catching payload was Google's "Project Suncatcher" prototype satellite: refrigerator-sized, carrying 4 self-developed TPUs, about 1 kilowatt power supply, running a segment of Gemma/Gemini inference before needing to shut down for cooling.
It is not a "space supercomputer," but a stress test that takes the problem as is into space:
Launch phase: local components must withstand 50–100G shock;
Radiation phase: cosmic rays can flip bits, turning 0 into 1 and 1 into 0;
Cooling phase: no wind or water in vacuum, heat can only be slowly dissipated by heat pipes + radiators, so TPUs must rest after running for 15 minutes.
Why is Google doing this? The answer is three words: not enough power.
AI training/inference pushes the power grid, land, cooling, and approvals into a corner; building data centers on the ground faces resident opposition, transformer queues, and insufficient fresh water. Near-Earth orbit, however, is almost always sunlit, and solar panels of the same area can generate about 8 times the power of those on the ground. Moving computing power to space is not a tech show-off, but a backup plan for "AI always being a bit short on power." #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
My absolute red line is "set stop loss first, then place the order" and the daily loss limit.
Trading is not gambling on luck; experienced players' heavy positions or holding orders may be backed by funds, but ordinary people copying this will only accelerate their exit. I insist on fixed risk per trade and position size not fluctuating with emotions; once the daily loss red line is reached, I immediately stop and review. Strict position control on crypto assets (not affecting life is the bottom line), only trading markets I understand. Before placing an order, I must consider the worst outcome: if I lose everything, can I bear it? This is the iron rule I set for myself before live trading.
💬 What is your "absolute red line that must not be crossed"? Exchange in the comments to supervise each other 🙌@OKX星球 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat. Folks, the signal from this chart isn't looking good; the ETF capital flow is starting to recede.
After the US Bitcoin spot ETF aggressively attracted $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive trading days, it turned to net outflows for two days starting September 30, withdrawing about $173 million in total. Ethereum started running earlier, with net outflows for three consecutive days. Previously, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs showed divergence, but now both are flowing out simultaneously, indicating that capital heat is indeed cooling down. Coinbase's report also confirms this, with recent profit-taking on Bitcoin reaching a yearly high, and spot demand beginning to slow.
Why is this happening? In short, everyone is avoiding tonight's non-farm payrolls. Bitcoin is oscillating around 86,000, accumulating so much profit-taking; no one wants to hold heavy positions overnight amid unclear Fed rate hike expectations. Institutions are pulling back first as a precautionary move, not because they are outright bearish.
So tonight's data is the main event. If the non-farm payrolls data is below expectations and rate hike pressure eases, these outflows actually create room for a rebound after the data release. If the data exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations heat up again, ETF funds may continue to flow out, and Bitcoin will have to test lower support levels. $BTC $ETH $ZEC On October 2, Aave founder Stani Kulechov expressed disappointment in response to the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) regarding the MiCA consultation. He pointed out that the relevant institutions not only advocate banning yield payments on stablecoins but also suggest restricting Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASPs) from offering users access to DeFi channels, including yield protocols involving stablecoins not authorized under MiCA, without clearly specifying the actual enforcement framework.
Stani also mentioned that the proposals suggest limiting the user base that can access DeFi through so-called "appropriateness tests" and consider implementing a certification system for DeFi lending protocols. He believes that if regulators decide which protocols are suitable for European users, it could lead to more closed DeFi ecosystems, weakening the liquidity and network effects of open financial networks. Stani stated that excessive restrictions may increase barriers to innovation and slow the development of open, transparent, and auditable financial infrastructure.
He believes that stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenized securities are expected to reduce friction in financial services, improve transparency, and expand channels for users to access financial opportunities, calling on European regulators to place users and their interests at the core of the regulatory framework. Finally, he stated: "DeFi will ultimately prevail."
$AAVE Nike and Lululemon, why have they fallen like this?
Nike ($NKE) stock price has returned to levels seen around 2013, and Lululemon ($LULU) market value is down to just over $10 billion.
Both companies have inherent problems: lack of product innovation, declining brand popularity, and increasing competition.
But the deeper reason they have fallen this far is that the middle class is undergoing changes.
In the U.S., the economy is increasingly polarized in a K-shaped pattern. The wealthy continue to consume, while ordinary households are squeezed by inflation, high interest rates, and rising living costs. Lululemon’s largest U.S. market has already started to see income decline.
In China, the real estate downturn has weakened household wealth, and employment pressure has affected future expectations. Nike’s revenue in China has declined for nine consecutive quarters.
The problems faced by the two markets are different, but the underlying changes are very similar: the middle class willing to pay a high premium for brands and lifestyles is becoming increasingly cautious.
In the past, the continuously upgrading consumption of the middle class supported these brands’ high premiums.
Now, as the middle class recedes, the high premiums have lost their foundation.
The sharp declines of Nike and Lululemon may just be the first two cracks to appear.The resilience of $OKB depends on whether the platform ecosystem can tightly integrate users, trading, and on-chain applications. Platform tokens are often pumped up in one go, only to be later eaten away by liquidity. My bullish conditions are simple: new demand must absorb selling pressure, and pullbacks should not lose key support; if there is a volume surge followed by a drop, don't mistake the defense for a trend.The wallet is about to close, is your crypto still inside?
Ronin Waypoint will officially shut down on October 16, only two weeks left.
Who is affected? Those using social login, email, or MPC-type keyless wallets.
Mnemonic phrase users don’t need to do anything; it doesn’t concern you.
So where should you move to? Two options: Ronin Stash or the old Ronin Wallet.
But bAXS and badges must be handled separately on the official Axie page, and there’s only one chance.
In short, the project team is shrinking the product line, and experience wallets like Waypoint are being cut.
No direct impact on the $RON price, but the signal isn’t looking good.
What lazy people like me fear most is—delaying migration until the last day, causing chain congestion, rising fees, and assets stuck halfway.
Don’t be like me.
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $RON This loss is not a bad thing; it truly made me realize that reverse trading is not as simple as I imagined. Fortunately, I haven't added more capital this time, so if I need to deposit funds later, I will have an added sense of caution.
The core issue: reverse orders pursue speed, operating too quickly.
Today, the market didn't rebound immediately after I entered, so I directly opened a short position. When the strongest rebound came, I didn't reduce my position. I used to hold positions based on habitual patterns, and most markets would rebound, but this time the market trend was different, which made me fearful, and ultimately I gave back a large portion of the profits.
In the future, when encountering similar market conditions:
1. Only catch the first straight plunge to the ice-cold bottom, this is the only entry opportunity.
2. For the first rebound wave, prioritize halving the last added position; if the market adjusts and falls back, seize the opportunity to buy back this half position to lock in some profits. Even if the market continues to rise afterward, you still have positions and won't miss out completely.
3. At the same low point, do not repeatedly buy or open both long and short positions to prevent position stacking.
4. For the second and subsequent lows, just observe and avoid heavy positions.
5. For the same market wave, only allow one reverse close; do not repeatedly stack orders.
6. Do not rush to reverse trade; reverse operations done too quickly can easily fall into traps. You must confirm the level is in place before acting. If the level is not confirmed, do not hastily close reverse orders, as you may encounter choppy consolidation.
7. If after the first ice-cold entry the market does not rebound and continues downward, immediately exit and do not hold the position.There is one thing everyone shouldn't overlook: U.S. Treasury yields have repeatedly hit new highs, and the long-term interest rate pressure has not eased at all.
Buying U.S. Treasuries now offers quite decent interest, and this money is stable with relatively low risk. That portion of funds is unwilling to stay in the highly volatile crypto market to take risks; instead, it moves to buy bonds to earn interest, which is a real suppression on the crypto market.
This explains why, despite continuous inflows into Bitcoin $BTC ETFs recently, Bitcoin itself struggles to surge sharply. The macro pressure from U.S. Treasuries hangs over the market like a heavy stone weighing it down.
Moreover, this is not a short-term fluctuation of a day or two; it is a sustained high level of long-term interest rates. As long as yields remain elevated, the entire risk market will find it hard to rally strongly.
This doesn't mean the crypto market is about to collapse. Institutional funds are still continuously buying Bitcoin through ETFs, creating two opposing forces. On one side, institutional buying supports the market; on the other, high U.S. Treasury yields are draining liquidity.
This results in the current situation of repeated sideways movement, unable to rise significantly nor fall deeply.
Tonight's nonfarm payroll data is especially critical. If employment data is strong, it will push U.S. Treasury yields even higher, increasing pressure on the crypto market. If the data weakens, yields may fall back, easing the market.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
For trading, you need to know that before this macro environment improves, don't blindly expect a booming bull market; volatility will be the norm. What truly transcends cycles is not the coin that rises the fastest, but the asset that still has users, builders, and holders after every bear market.
The core of BTC is not in the story, but in scarcity, hash power security, and global consensus. The protocol sets a total supply cap of 21 million coins, with new issuance continuing to halve, and this verifiable scarcity is its most important underlying asset logic.
ETH plays a different role. Ethereum currently still has a large DeFi, stablecoin, RWA, and Layer2 ecosystem. Institutional data centers show that its DeFi TVL, staking scale, and on-chain stablecoin scale all hold important positions in the industry.
SOL emphasizes efficiency and application expansion. In August 2026, Solana reached 216 million non-voting transactions in a single day, and the RWA scale exceeded $4 billion, indicating that the competition among high-performance public chains has moved from parameter comparison to real application stages.
OKB's logic is also changing. After completing the economic model upgrade, the total supply is fixed at 21 million coins and, as the only Gas token on the X Layer, value capture begins to bind with the on-chain ecosystem.
So what is truly worth studying is not who gains the most today, but:
Who can continuously generate users, developers, cash flow, and network effects.
The bull market is the easiest time to make money; the bear market truly tests assets.
Don't mistake speculative gains for long-term value, nor a single surge for the ability to transcend cycles. $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $SOL UPDATE
SOL is trading around $118–$120 right now.
The recent ETF flow data is worth watching. Solana ETFs recorded about $248M of net inflows between September 14 and October 1, including a record $86.7M inflow on September 25. The latest session showed a small $1.1M outflow.
SOL is now trying to hold the $118–$120 area after the recent move higher.
For now, I’m watching whether buyers can keep this area supported while ETF flows remain positive over the broader period. Don't take the nonfarm payrolls too seriously; the real trump card is CPI
Tonight at 20:30 the nonfarm payrolls will be released, and the market is getting nervous again. BTC surged to 86,000, ETH to 2724. How many are waiting for the nonfarm to give direction?
But honestly, the Fed's focus on nonfarm payrolls is no longer what it used to be. The most important now is CPI, followed by PCE, with nonfarm payrolls only third. No matter how strong employment data is, as long as inflation comes down, the Fed still has reason to cut rates.
Last month, nonfarm payrolls hit a surprising 162,000, the market dipped briefly, then what? It still went up. Because everyone knows employment is not the main issue now; inflation is. After PCE came out below expectations, the market rallied sharply. This is the data that truly influences Fed decisions.
So tonight's nonfarm, whether it beats or misses expectations, there's no need to panic or get overly excited. If it beats expectations, the dip is a golden buying opportunity; if it misses, the rally shouldn't be chased. The real direction will be decided by next month's CPI.
BTC at 86,000 has room to move both ways, don't change your belief just because of one nonfarm report. ETH at 2724 is fluctuating; I still hold a short at 2671, but I don't expect the nonfarm to cause much drop—just holding for CPI. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Reviewing today's market, both $CL and $BZ showed a sharp rise followed by a rapid pullback, with short-term volatility significantly increasing. On October 2, WTI briefly rose above $93, but the intraday low touched about $88.8; Brent fell from around $103 to near $100.
Currently, $CL is focusing on support at $89–90; if it holds, the next resistance to watch is $92–94; if it breaks below $89, short-term support may be sought near $87. For $BZ, attention is on $99–100; only a rebound above $102–103 can ease short-term pressure.
Oil prices are still influenced by the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East situation, while Middle East crude exports are recovering, creating opposing forces in supply and demand. Therefore, the market is more like a high-volatility range-bound oscillation, with the key being whether support levels can hold.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Anthropic's IPO has pushed the AI narrative into a frenzy, but ETH hasn't kept up, with its price oscillating around 2750. The liquidation map shows a dense accumulation of longs below 2720; breaking this level would trigger a chain of forced liquidations, while the short resistance above 2820 is relatively thin.
I just sent an order to an old office building, and the debt collection calls are ringing again, but my eyes are still on the order book. Currently, 2753 is the 0.618 retracement level, EMA still favors bulls, but MACD has shown a bearish divergence, making chasing longs very low in cost-effectiveness.
In terms of operation, lightly buy on dips between 2720 and 2730, set stop loss at 2698, take profit initially at 2805, and raise it to 2840 upon breakout. If the 4-hour close falls below 2700, this trade logic is invalidated; reduce positions on rebound without adding.
$ETH
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
@OKX星球 $BTC Tonight's core event is the Non-Farm Payrolls. Before 20:30, the market is likely to mainly consolidate with increased cautious sentiment. The Non-Farm Payrolls may trigger short-term volatility but are unlikely to change the current bullish structure.
On the daily chart, 87300 is the key watershed tonight. If it breaks through and holds above this level, the short-term target is around 88000; if it continues to hold in this area, then the 90,000 level will be tested further. If 87300 continues to face pressure, the market will likely remain in the 87000–82500 range-bound consolidation. Under the current structure, there is no basis for a strong downtrend, so excessive bearishness is not advised.
Tonight's focus: the gain or loss of 87300. A break targets around 88000; resistance means continued range-bound oscillation. Overall, the outlook does not support a major drop.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 BTC capital inflow, ETH continues to flow out: institutions are redeploying their positions
ETF data these days is very interesting. BTC spot ETFs previously had net inflows of about $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive trading days, but on September 30, there was a sudden outflow of $148.7 million; on October 1, it turned back to a net inflow of $102.7 million. This indicates that institutions are not unilaterally withdrawing but rapidly adjusting positions at high levels.
More noteworthy is ETH: on October 1, it had an outflow of $48.5 million, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows, with a total outflow of about $111 million over the first three days.
So the current signal is not "BTC will definitely rise, ETH will definitely fall," but rather a phase-based divergence in capital preference.
When macro uncertainty rises, BTC is more likely to become the core allocation for institutions; ETH is more sensitive to risk appetite, ecosystem expectations, and capital rotation.
What really needs attention is not the inflows and outflows of a single day, but whether the trend can continue: whether BTC ETFs can maintain net inflows again, and whether ETH can end its continuous redemptions.
If BTC continues to attract funds while ETH keeps flowing out, the preference for capital defense will become more obvious; conversely, if ETH funds turn positive again, it would more likely indicate a new round of risk appetite expansion.
ETFs are not crystal balls for predicting price movements, but where funds continuously flow is often more honest than market sentiment. $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $TRUMP's strong momentum continues, and crowding risk is also rising
$TRUMP 24h +5.15%, current price 2.185. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 88 and 62 respectively. The strength is real, and the crowding is real too. The question is not whether it can continue, but who is willing to catch it on the first pullback.
Put emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 2.1018, currently strong; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 2.0842, also currently strong. The short-term cycle exposes changes, the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of oscillations. Don't just pick the side that favors you.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 7.37% away from the 1-hour support at 2.024, and about 0.05% away from resistance at 2.186. Putting these two distances together reveals which side requires more evidence. Looking only at the price change makes it easy to mistake the space already traveled as if it hasn't started yet.Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. September nonfarm payroll data will be released. This employment report will directly impact the subsequent market trend of BTC.
The underlying logic is very clear:
If the employment data is weak, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy will decrease, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields will weaken, and interest-free assets like Bitcoin will benefit. If the employment data is hotter than expected, the market will reprice the likelihood of rate hikes, and BTC's market will be suppressed.
✅ Bullish scenario: New jobs ≤ 60,000 / Unemployment rate > 4.2%: The market bets on the Fed turning dovish, BTC rises.
✅ Neutral consolidation scenario: New jobs 80,000-100,000, Unemployment rate 4.1%: Data meets expectations, BTC continues to trade sideways between 84,000-85,000.
✅ Bearish scenario: New jobs ≥ 120,000 / Unemployment rate < 4.0%: Rate hike expectations heat up, BTC may retest 82,000~83,000.
⚠️ Reminder: 90,000 is just the expected baseline; 50,000-80,000 new jobs can stabilize the unemployment rate. Don’t go long just because the number is below 100,000. Whether the daytime rise has already priced in expectations will be clear once the nonfarm data is released. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 💧 Liquidity Quality Test
$WLD: Spread 0.019% | Top 5 Buy Order Depth $42.1K
$OKB: Spread 0.008% | Top 5 Buy Order Depth $9.8K
$GRVT: Spread 0.055% | Top 5 Buy Order Depth $186
$WLD has the deepest visible buy order support in this snapshot. Facing rapid fluctuations, which coin would you trust?
$OKB $GRVT $WLD
#TraderDesk #Crypto
⚠️ Not financial advice — please manage risk and do your own research. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Tonight at 20:30, the non-farm payroll drama is about to unfold!
The market expects a sharp drop in new jobs, and Federal Reserve officials have also hinted that the probability of a rate hike continues to cool down, with Bitcoin starting to run ahead.
Looking at the chart, BTC is currently priced at 86463.4, with a 24-hour high reaching 86914.8, up 2.72%. After a sharp surge on the hourly candlestick, it slightly consolidates, with all short-term moving averages supporting the price from below, bulls temporarily in control.
But the key point to remember: this rise is driven by funds speculating ahead of the non-farm payroll data.
Once the data deviates from expectations, the market can quickly reverse. In news-driven markets, chasing highs is the biggest taboo.
Now we just wait for tonight's non-farm payroll release to see if Bitcoin can hold above the 86000 level. $BTC Term Structure Radar
$ETH mid-term contract annualized basis is lower than both ends: near/mid/far annualized basis +5.22%/+3.62%/+4.44%. The mid-term unit time premium is lower, and intertemporal trading also depends on actual bid and ask quotes; the annualized difference does not equal lockable profit.LITE rose about 7.7% in one day to around 1046, Bernstein set a target of 1220, I won't chase for now.
Observed: US stock daily K opened at 980, high about 1078, low 966, closed at 1045.78, up about 7.7% relative to yesterday's close of around 971, with volume expanding to about 7.53 million shares.
On the same day catalyst: Bernstein upgraded the optical communication group, giving LITE an Outperform rating and a target price of $1220; the market is still digesting expectations that domestic high-speed optical modules may be constrained while US components benefit.
Simply put: this is a sentiment surge driven by brokers layering the AI optical interconnect narrative, not because the company suddenly signed a big order today, nor should it be seen as a fundamental overnight change.
I think short-term chasing this bullish candle is unwise—1220 target is only about 17% upside from the current price of around 1046 on paper, and it has nearly doubled this year, with quite a bit of optimism priced in.
My approach: just observe and don't chase the high; wait for a pullback or real order confirmation before deciding.
If invalidated, watch for a break below today's low of about 966 to continue down, or a firm hold above about 1078 before considering follow-up.
Are you waiting for a pullback to act, or do you think the 1220 target is solid enough to get in directly?
$LITE $CIEN $NVDA
#September nonfarm payrolls announced tonight, interest rate hike expectations are the focus #BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital enthusiasmNon-farm payrolls land tonight, and what’s really worth watching might not be the employment data itself, but whether it can continue to push down the October rate hike expectations.
Currently, the market pricing for an October rate hike is around 23%, down from about 70% a few days ago, showing a clear loosening of expectations.
So if this non-farm payrolls report only keeps the probability around 20%, or even if the data causes it to rise again, risk assets might not catch a break.
The scenario I’m more looking forward to is:
Non-farm payrolls deliver another blow, pushing the rate hike probability directly down to around 10%.
This would create a real expectation vacuum in the market, allowing risk assets to continue rising for a few more days, possibly driving this week’s rally.
As for rate hike expectations rising again later, there’s really no need to worry. What we truly need to avoid is the expectation just easing up, only for non-farm payrolls to immediately pull it back up.
The data is just the surface; how pricing moves is the real game tonight. #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 The increase has grown larger, so why doesn't the account feel it yet?
$BICO was quoted at 0.02246 in the afternoon, then dropped to 0.02215 by evening. The price is lower, yet the 24-hour increase expanded from 3.11% to 3.55%.
The increase compares to the price 24 hours ago, and that starting point is also moving.
So just seeing the increase number grow and thinking the afternoon is getting stronger can easily lead to a wrong judgment.
I'm more concerned whether it can regain the afternoon price and then see if the trading volume keeps up.
You can't directly interpret an expanded increase as stronger buying pressure.
$HYPE has reached around 91.05, still some distance from the previous high of 98.04.
This is where impatience is most common; as soon as it passes 90, people start calculating how much profit a push to 100 could bring.
If it continues to rise, I will watch whether trading volume increases near the previous high or if the price goes up but quickly retreats.
The former is worth raising expectations for; the latter indicates selling pressure above still needs to be absorbed.
$SUI has risen about 50% in the past month but has been almost flat this week.
Using the one-month increase to explain why it should rise today lacks persuasiveness.
A good past performance only shows strength in the past; new buying reasons are needed going forward.
I will look to see if upcoming ecosystem news can bring actual usage growth.
If the news is lively for a few days but the price shows no further movement, expectations should be lowered a bit. My red line: Don't touch what you don't understand
After spending a long time in the crypto circle, I realized a painful truth — most people who lose money don't lose to the market, they lose to their own "fear of missing out."
When others say $BTC will break 100,000, you rush in without even understanding why it's valuable. When others shout that a certain meme coin will multiply a hundredfold, you chase it without even verifying the contract address. What happens? The whales sell off, you take the bag, and then comfort yourself with "holding long term."
The only red line I set for myself is: if I don't understand it, I don't invest a penny.
For Bitcoin $BTC, I spent three months reading the whitepaper and studying the halving cycle before daring to make my first purchase. For Ethereum $ETH, I understood smart contracts and Gas fees before taking action. As for those projects whose official websites can't even be opened and whose whitepapers are all copy-pasted, no matter how high they rise, they have nothing to do with me.
Some laugh at me for being conservative, saying I missed a bunch of "opportunities." But I know that nine out of ten of those so-called opportunities are traps. You focus on their gains, while they focus on your principal.
The most valuable thing in crypto is not $BTC, it's knowledge. If you can't make money beyond your understanding, even if you get lucky once, you'll lose it back with skill.
So my red line isn't a technical indicator or a stop-loss line, it's one sentence: don't touch what you don't understand, better to miss out than to make a mistake. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $MOVR has already entered the oversold zone, but "it's time to rebound" and "the bottom has been reached" are completely different things.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are weak, with RSI at 24 and 59 respectively. Oversold conditions can explain the demand for a rebound, but they alone cannot prove a trend reversal; price stopping new lows is more convincing than any statement like "it can't fall further."
Current price is 2.117, about 4.72% above the 1-hour support at 2.017, and about 57.77% below the resistance at 3.34. There is no shortage of directional speculation here, but what is lacking is sustained movement after the price truly breaks through these boundaries.
My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding above 3.34 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it falls below 2.017, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.932. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 3.34 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
Is this phase more like the start of emotional recovery, or just a breather before a continuation of the downtrend?
The market is volatile; the above is only an observation of the market and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.BTC has risen above 86,000, and what truly matters is not how much it has increased, but that the selling pressure above is changing.
The previous sell wall at $85,000–85,500 that troubled BTC has recently been clearly absorbed by buying, and the price has broken through $85,000 again. Meanwhile, wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have cumulatively increased by about 113,950 BTC over the past 10 weeks; another data set shows that addresses holding 10–10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by about 41,025 BTC in the last 10 days.
Looking at these two signals together, the meaning changes:
The selling pressure above is weakening, while large holdings below are increasing.
If buying continues to support, $85,000 could gradually shift from a resistance level to a new price support; $86,000–87,000 becomes the short-term observation zone.
But don’t rush to equate the "disappearance of the sell wall" directly with a continuous rise. ETF demand, profit-taking, and macro interest rates will still influence the pace. Recently, the decline in US Treasury yields and cooling PCE have indeed improved risk appetite, but the sustainability after the breakout still requires confirmation from trading volume and spot capital.
So now I’m more focused on one question:
After breaking through $85,000, is capital continuing to chase prices, or treating it as a new buying zone?
If subsequent pullbacks to $85,000 still see significant support, then the structure of this rally truly begins to get interesting. $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $BTC 10x long position continues to be held, still testing the breakout strength above $86,000.
This $BTC long position was opened at an average price of $86,460, and the price is currently fluctuating near the entry point. The position size has not been adjusted for now; next, we will only watch if the breakout can be confirmed by a one-hour close.
According to the current market conditions, BTC is around $86,475, with the last three complete one-hour candlesticks closing near or above $86,000. The one-hour EMA20 is about $85,565, RSI around 70, indicating short-term strength, but there is still resistance near $86,900.
Perpetual positions have increased by about 7.9% compared to approximately 23 hours ago, with prices rising simultaneously; new positions are participating in the market. The funding rate is positive, with longs paying fees, but there is no obvious overheating at present.
Among OKX smart money, 14 are long and 23 are short, with shorts accounting for 54.7% of the amount. Total positions increased by about $7.76 million in the past 24 hours. Shorts continue to increase their investment while the price remains high; if it pushes higher, these shorts may be forced to stop loss.
This round of rise is supported by spot funds, with stronger absorption than pure leverage-driven rallies. However, the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will be released at 20:30, and prices may quickly sweep losses up and down around the data release.
For this position, first watch if the one-hour close can be above $86,650; after confirmation, look at $87,400-$88,000. If the close falls below $85,800, the current rebound logic weakens; if it falls below $85,400, the long position should not be stubbornly held further. Liquid staking tokens serve as withdrawal vouchers and also add an extra layer of risk.
Staking pools allow users with less than 32 ETH to participate and often issue liquid staking tokens representing both principal and rewards. This solves the issues of thresholds, hardware, and waiting times. These tokens can be used for lending or trading, but what users hold is no longer just native $ETH; it is a composite right tied to the contract, operators' collective, and redemption mechanisms. Token prices may deviate from redeemable value, contracts may have vulnerabilities, operators might use the same client causing correlated failures, and secondary market liquidity may vanish under stress. Transparent pools disclose node operators, contracts, and reserve relationships, while closed custody products may prevent users from verifying whether assets are genuinely staked. Even with similar yields, differences in control remain significant. Choosing a staking method should not only compare annualized figures but also clarify who controls the assets, how to exit, and whether issues rely on the protocol or company promises.
If tokens can be repeatedly re-staked, risks continue to accumulate: the underlying stake may be safe, but upper-layer lending positions can still be liquidated due to price deviations. Liquidity convenience must be calculated separately from leverage risk.
Convenience is not free; it transforms a direct relationship with the protocol into a chain of dependencies. Only by clearly mapping this chain of dependencies can one determine if the extra yield is worth it. Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
ETH is stuck at the 2750 level, it has tried several times but can't hold above it, a bit frustrating.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real test, this will reveal the true positions of bulls and bears.
A few days ago, after the core PCE was released, the rate hike expectations clearly cooled down. I think this recent rally is funds betting in advance that tonight's non-farm won't be a surprise.
The mainstream market expectation is an increase of 91,000 jobs, but interestingly, the forecast range is very wide, from 35,000 to 180,000, indicating institutions themselves are uncertain.
Let me break it down for you: if the data really hits above 120,000, it means employment is still resilient, and the coin price will likely retrace;
if it's only a bit over 60,000 or even lower, that's a signal for rate cuts, and the 2750 resistance level might be broken directly.
Brothers, remember, a spike right after the data release is standard, a sweep of one or two thousand points up or down is not unusual.
Don't rush in to catch the falling knife as soon as the data drops; wait two or three minutes for the direction to emerge before following.
Tonight will be either a big gain or a big loss, so manage your positions carefully.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $AVAX The real logic of AVAX is not in the K-line
Avalanche's Evergreen subnet has transitioned from the test environment to production, with participating institutions including T. Rowe Price managing $1.6 trillion and Wellington Management managing $1.3 trillion. JPMorgan Onyx and Apollo have launched a tokenized portfolio management proof of concept on Avalanche. New York Life announced the tokenization of its high-yield corporate bond strategy fund through Centrifuge and its deployment on Avalanche.
This is no longer a comparison of "which chain is faster," but whether the traditional securities market can truly embed blockchain into stock trading, settlement, and asset ownership systems.
What AVAX is completing is a narrative leap from "high-performance public chain" to "Wall Street's preferred settlement layer for asset tokenization." The RWA market cap has grown by $266 million in the past 30 days, leading all major public chains.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Starting from 09.29, a whale holding $6.99 million worth of $ETHFI is suspected of taking profits on $HYPE 🧐
50 minutes ago, he deposited 71,000 HYPE into the exchange, valued at $6.48 million, at a deposit price of $91.26; previously on 09.04, he had offered 142,834.56 HYPE (worth $12.3 million) at $86.15. If sold this time, the profit would be $362,000.
Wallet address 0xd282232463d50D54ccBcCf0Edc5c7562ae47c1e7Nonfarm Payrolls Tonight Will Decide Life or Death❓Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up, BTC/ETH Beware of Intense Shakeout
At 20:30 tonight, the U.S. will release the September Nonfarm Payroll report, which will be a key basis for the market to judge whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October.
The current market consensus expects new jobs to increase by about 84,000 to 91,000, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.1%. If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike may rise; if employment weakens, hawkish pressure will ease. Previously, Fed officials have signaled "no need to rush into action," and CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to about 22%–25%.
For the crypto market, Nonfarm Payrolls affect rate expectations and dollar liquidity transmission: weak data usually benefits risk assets, while strong data may trigger short-term pullbacks. Volatility often intensifies 1–2 hours before and after the data release, so high-leverage positions need to be especially cautious.
Tonight, focus on three key signals: whether new employment significantly deviates from expectations, whether the unemployment rate rises, and whether average hourly earnings accelerate. If the data is moderate, the market may continue to repair risk appetite; if the data overheats, BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure.
Operationally, it is recommended to control positions in advance to avoid chasing highs or selling lows at the moment of data release. After the data lands, it is safer to follow the market direction once it becomes clear.
The above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Just hold onto the BTC chips bought at the 60,000 bottom, and don't mess with the rest. Right now is just trash time. Today it looks like it will break through, tomorrow it looks like it will break down. The back and forth doesn't even reach 5%. With just this up and down, you can lose all the profits made in the trend.
Currently around 85,000, going up counts as 93,000, going down counts as 75,000. The numbers look big, but the ups and downs are only about 10%, so what do you have to worry about?
Why bother with contracts when there's nothing to do? Grinding back and forth, the principal is all worn out. Altcoins have been worse these past two days, many are in a slow decline. Don't do anything here, just wait. Watch some shows, listen to some music, it's better than staring at the market.
$BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单 #美战略比特币储备法案进入委员会审议 Decisive Night for Nonfarm Payrolls
Whether there will be a rate hike in October
depends on this data.
The expectation is an increase of about 84,000–90,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and hourly wages up 0.3% month-over-month.
Currently, the market's probability of no rate hike in October is bet at 70%.
Three possible outcomes:
1: Meets expectations (80,000–100,000, unemployment rate unchanged): slight rise or consolidation, Nasdaq relatively favored
2: Significantly stronger (130,000 or more, or unemployment rate 4.0%, hourly wages 0.4%): yields and dollar rise, stock indices fall first, growth stocks hit hardest
3: Significantly weaker (below 50,000, unemployment rate 4.2%): initial rebound due to rate cut trades; if too weak, it turns into growth concerns
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 After BTC pulled back from the $87,390 high, it has been consolidating for 10 consecutive days. Why hasn't it shown a clear direction yet?
Looking back at history, major corrections rarely complete in just one day; 15 days, 30 days, or even 60 days are common market timeframes. The 15-day mark is approaching for this cycle, and if this pattern continues to hold reference value, an important directional choice may come around the National Day holiday.
This means that before this window arrives, BTC is more likely to maintain a wide-range consolidation rather than immediately breaking into a sustained one-sided trend. The most troublesome aspect of consolidation is not the lack of opportunities, but the abundance of false breakouts, false breakdowns, and repeated stop-loss hunting.
Therefore, what truly deserves attention now is not "whether to go long or short immediately," but whether both time and price confirm simultaneously. A volume breakout above the consolidation upper boundary would indicate the correction might be over; a break below key support with a failed rebound would warn of a deeper pullback.
Of course, 15 days and 30 days are just historical statistics, not market laws. Cycles can be referenced but cannot replace price confirmation.
What’s really worth waiting for is not predicting the exact day of the market shift, but waiting for the shift to actually happen and then following the market. $BTC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 If $ZEC drops another 2%, I'll be able to break even! In the past couple of days, $ZEC's trend has finally weakened, falling from the peak of 1697 down to 1375, about 20% down. Those who shorted with high leverage have been profiting nicely, and many short sellers have already turned their losses into gains. I previously said that I have always been bearish on $ZEC, which caused me to miss the rise from 600 to 1697. The reason for my bearish view is simple: it has too many hidden risks, whether in terms of security or regulation, it has already had major issues. In the long term, it won't go far. However, recently Grayscale's heavy holdings caused ZEC to surge 4 times in a main upward wave! But price increases do not mean fundamentals have improved. I still maintain a bearish stance. Although I don't dare to short it heavily, I have kept a small base position, waiting to aggressively increase my position when it really blows up. But now is not the time yet. My view remains that its structure hasn't been broken and it could still be pulled up to 1800. Shorting this coin is a long-term plan; there's no need to rush!Regarding the ETH upgrade narrative, I am more concerned about whether the next step can be fulfilled.
The Ethereum Foundation announced on September 28 that the Glamsterdam plan is scheduled to activate on the Sepolia testnet at 21:53:36 Beijing time on October 6; as of this check, the activation time for Hoodi and the mainnet is still undetermined.
This means that an observable technical milestone is already on the agenda, but there is still a verification process before the mainnet launch.