Orbit Post Sitemap
⚠️ $CORE — DECENTRALIZATION OR A RISK TO HOLDERS? If the official team fully steps back while independent nodes take over operations under a free-pricing model, is that ultimately positive or negative for CORE holders? There are several concerns worth considering: 🔹 Loss of core support: If the main team stops providing development, funding, and ecosystem support, the network could struggle to maintain long-term activity and attract developers. 🔹 Liquidity risk: $CORE could already be facingAfter the positive news for $ETH and $BTC lands, a waterfall drop can happen. Hold on, short position holders.
After the non-farm payroll data was released, both the US stock market and crypto market rose significantly, but the crypto market was quickly pushed back down while the US stock market remains strong.
Ethereum could drop several hundred points; let's wait and see next week. Bulls can switch to shorts.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Latest Progress of the CORE Project
The CORE underlying public chain is running stably, with 21 validator nodes operating normally. The Satoshi Plus computing power consensus system continues to function, and the network security shows no abnormalities. The project's core narrative, SatPay (Bitcoin payment bank ecosystem), is still in the development and regulatory approval stage. Originally planned to launch in the first half of 2026, it has been continuously delayed with no clear launch timetable. Only a user reservation list is open, with no large-scale merchant adoption or actual commercial revenue.
On the ecosystem side, basic functions such as BTCFi lending and cross-chain coreBTC have been launched, but the overall TVL is small and user activity is low, with no sustainable revenue generation capability. The token mechanism remains unchanged, capped at a total supply of 2.1 billion, but block rewards will continue to be released over 81 years, resulting in long-term new selling pressure.
At this stage, the project team only maintains community enthusiasm, updates code, and advances governance proposals, with no substantial achievements that meet market expectations.
Considering reflexivity logic: the current market has already priced in an optimistic expectation of SatPay launching with a 100x increase, which is far greater than reality and represents a clear overextension. While it is not at an extreme bubble overvaluation, the risk of narrative falsification is very high. Continuous license delays, large transfers from nodes and treasury are core warning signals of a market reversal.#SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议
Canada's 'millions' are not 'car counts': CPKC's September report reveals North America's grain artery
Don't be startled by "5.45 million transported"—the hardest data from Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) in September is not the vague 5.45 million figure, but the combined grain volume of about 5.45 million tonnes from Canada and the U.S.: 2.94 million tonnes from Canada, 2.51 million tonnes from the U.S., totaling 5.45 million tonnes, setting records for grain transport in September and the third quarter.
Converted to railcars: 30,324 cars from Canada, 26,236 cars from the U.S., totaling 56,560 railcars. In other words, if "5.45 million" refers to tonnage, it means grain; if someone spreads it as "5.45 million railcars/containers," that would be absurd—CPKC's weekly full trainload is just over 90,000 cars, and the monthly full trainload plus containers are far from reaching the million level.
Why is this significant? CPKC is the only single-line railway connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, transporting grain directly from the prairie provinces to Vancouver/Mexico Bay. Farmers sell grain, ports load ships, and bakeries receive supplies all relying on it. The 2026-27 crop year started with two months of record-breaking performance, indicating strong demand for grain transport in North America, a stable cross-border supply chain, and adding confidence to the financial report. 🚩Hello, friends, I am your Chao Ge🤝
➕Continuing from the last message: BTC just plummeted straight down, followed by ETH also crashing hard. It's like the big brother sneezed and ETH went straight to the ICU! ETH dropped sharply from 2778 to 2691, so much that even your own mother wouldn't recognize it😂
In my opinion, there are two main culprits:
👉First, on the news front, Jiang Zhuoer spoke out that queued ETH withdrawals from staking surged to 850,000 coins. This selling pressure hangs overhead—who wouldn't get weak in the knees seeing that?
👉Second, technically, on the 1-hour chart, the price broke below MA5 (2720) and MA10 (2732), MACD formed a bearish crossover downward, and the green bars grew wildly like weeds. The bulls are completely crushed to the ground.
👆🏻So what trend will ETH show in the late night?
➡️Support below is at the previous low of 2676; if it breaks, look for comfort near 2600. Resistance above is between 2700 and 2710; a rebound to this range will likely get hammered again.
➡️In terms of trading, absolutely do not try to catch a falling knife; if you miss, you'll end up like a string of candied hawthorns. Spot traders should play dead and lie flat, contract players keep your hands off and wait for the 1-hour MACD golden cross before considering. There are many late-night spikes; preserving capital is the way to go!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
$ETH $BTC $SOL Long bulls, get me more in!
Don't rush to swipe away, take a look at ALLO's funding rate first.
The current short funding rate is negative, meaning shorts have to pay longs every day.
Now look at the open interest; the price has pulled back to 0.27, but open interest hasn't decreased—instead, it has increased.
What does this indicate? It means someone is quietly adding long positions at a low level, while shorts keep sending money in continuously.
The non-farm payrolls surprised to the downside, and the rate hike expectations collapsed—this is a macro tailwind.
But what really makes me confident to go long is the chip structure itself: shorts pay interest daily, longs collect rent daily.
As long as this structure holds, shorts will either actively close positions to push prices up or be slowly worn down by time.
Current price is 0.277, with 0.26 below as the iron bottom of the daily MA20, and the upside space is clear at a glance.
With this kind of trade, do you still need to hesitate?
$BTC $ETH $ALLO
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% After today's practical session, the entire system has become increasingly mature. Relying on simultaneous long and short positions as a foundation, entering the market when a double-top structure forms, securing a 30-point profit. The only regret was a brief hesitation in the mid-trade closing decision, missing an additional 50-point move. This also confirms one thing: theory must be continuously refined and cannot be separated from repeated practical trading.
Core Theory
1. Opportunity Selection: Only wait for sharp straight-line drops plus large-scale divergence, indicating bearish momentum exhaustion. Avoid reversing or repeatedly switching between long and short during ordinary oscillating declines.
2. Distinguish Two Entry Approaches
- Bottom-fishing approach: In the sharp drop ice-point area, try positions lower than the previous buy point;
- Reversal approach: No need to stubbornly chase the absolute lowest point; wait for low-level consolidation and confirmation of market strength before entering, then act on the upward launch wave to avoid false bottoms and secondary drops.
3. Dual Long-Short Positioning: Mainly used in unclear directional oscillating ranges as a base position to maintain initiative. Do not heavily position in oscillating markets; only deploy maximum position size at large-scale ice-point opportunities.
4. Position Size Iron Rule: Standard ice-point single position limit is 30%; never arbitrarily add or stack positions in any market; if certainty is insufficient, maintain observation.
5. Exit Rules: When the rebound reaches a high area, fully close positions to capture the entire move; be aware that software profit and loss statistics can be misleading, use market candlesticks and structural points as judgment basis.
6. Cycle Bottom Awareness: Divergence does not mean immediate violent rally; many markets first consolidate at low levels, waiting for strength signals before starting an upward move.Before the US market opened, my original plan was:
At most, a pullback to around 86100, then a rebound to challenge 87000
(Because the data released at 20:30 was positive, but the price rose to 87200 and then fell back without holding, I thought it wasn’t fully cleaned out yet, so there would be another pullback. I didn’t short, just kept watching until 21:30 when Micron opened and I made a small trade, then continued waiting for a pullback to around 86100 to look for longs.
In the end, I held back, since a 1-2% rise or fall within 30 minutes after the US stock market opens is normal volatility, plus there was important data an hour earlier. So I kept waiting for the area where I thought the most long orders were stacked (the order block from the 3 PM starting point, with many stop-loss orders below). It smoothly reached my entry point, and the price did rebound (because many stop-loss orders were triggered), but seeing the previous 1-hour candle (22:00) close below the order block, I thought the structure had changed, so I closed the position and rested, not wanting to trade anymore... no energy to think.
Actually, my head was hurting badly before opening this trade, and I had slept less than 5 hours today... Whale Alert monitoring shows an unknown wallet unstaked 956,600 SOL at 23:01 today, worth about 116 million USD.
Just as the market warmed up, a whale loosened their SOL stake. To me, this move is very ambiguous—if the price rises, they can sell smoothly; if it falls, they can buy the dip. They are not betting on direction, just profiting from optionality 😇
$BTC $ETH $SOL🚨 US JOBS DATA JUST SHOCKED THE MARKET! September nonfarm payrolls came in at just 29K, far below the 90K expected, while the previous reading was also revised down from 162K. 📉 Unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% 📉 Wage growth slowed to 3.0% 📉 All four key labor-market readings missed expectations. August job openings also declined, adding to signs that labor demand is cooling. The US job market is clearly losing momentum, which could strengthen expectations for further Fed rate cuts. Meanwhi$SOON 0.38 has temporarily stabilized, and now the trend is starting to follow the overall market, which is quite funny. I've been observing for several hours, and the 15-minute candlesticks are basically almost identical. Anyway, in these few hours, just glancing at the trend of ETH or ZEC lets you know whether this 15-minute period is going up or down without even looking at it 😂😂😂, it's exactly the same, the only difference is that it fluctuates a bit more. Now, the market usually declines around midnight. So I suggest staying out of positions or setting stop losses. I plan to check again during the day tomorrow, and if it’s still around 0.37-0.38, I will go long again US September Nonfarm Payrolls: Added 29,000, Unemployment Rate 4.2%
I. Two Major Reasons for the Significant Data Weakness
1. Real Cooling of Employment (Substantive Factors)
1. Companies' Hiring Willingness Shrinks: Financial, business services, and government jobs are decreasing as companies control labor costs and no longer hire on a large scale; however, there are no mass layoffs, and initial jobless claims remain low, indicating the economy is not about to enter a recession. Healthcare, construction, and manufacturing are still adding jobs slightly, reflecting a "hiring less, not mass firing" situation.
2. Wage Growth Has Clearly Slowed, at 0.1%, far below expectations, representing a reduction in inflationary pressure from wages, which is one of the Fed's most closely watched indicators.
3. Employment data for the previous two months were revised downward simultaneously, indicating that past employment figures were overestimated and the job market has been gradually cooling.
2. Statistical Disturbances (Noise Factors, which amplify this month's decline)
1. Seasonal Model Distortion: The Labor Day holiday calendar effect in September and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonal adjustment algorithm naturally suppressed the September reading, a statistical-level disturbance; next month's data may rebound and correct this.
2. Expiration of Work Permits for Immigrants: Some workers are no longer counted in payroll statistics, causing a one-time drag on the data but not a sustained deterioration of the economic fundamentals.
II. What This Means for the Federal Reserve
1. The October rate hike is basically off the table, with rate hike expectations further delayed; the market is directly betting that rate hikes will continue to be postponed, shortening the duration of high interest rates.
2. However, the 4.2% unemployment rate is still not very high, and inflation is not fully under control, so there will be no immediate shift to rate cuts, only a pause in rate hikes.
III. Bullish/Bearish Impact by Asset (Focus on BTC, ETH)
✅ Short term: Strongly bullish for risk assets (BTC, ETH, US stocks, gold)
• Driving logic: Cooling rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields decline, dollar weakens, benefiting all high-risk assets.
• BTC: Supported by ETF capital base, making the rebound more stable.
• ETH: More elastic; although there was a slight ETF outflow earlier, macro bullish factors outweigh capital outflows, so the rebound gain will exceed BTC.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #NEAR生态协议遭攻击致币价下跌近10%
The first US NEAR spot ETF was listed for two days, and the selling point in the prospectus had an issue.
▪️ The ETF prospectus touted "NEAR Intents processed over $32 billion in swaps" as a selling point
▪️ Incident on 10/1: Omni deposit and withdrawal facility had a vulnerability in its contract interaction, resulting in over $3.8 million flowing out from the BSC hot wallet
▪️ Deposits and withdrawals on 11 chains were suspended for about 12 hours; the team fixed the issue and promised full compensation, stating the underlying network was not involved
▪️ NRR net inflow was $35.5 million on the first day, $13.2 million on the second day, about $57.7 million in three days — money was still coming in on the day of the hack
The disagreement is not about how much was lost this time, but that what NRR is selling is the thing that had the incident — "the underlying network is fine" does not protect holders.
The hacked amount is only one-fifteenth of the new money: $3.8 million versus $57.7 million. The price was discounted by 8% for the whole ecosystem, yet the ETF kept buying — two groups are pricing different kinds of risk.
When you buy NRR, are you buying the coin price or an incident-free ecosystem? $ETH price has been consolidating after a strong rise from the $2,350 area, waiting for a pullback to the first bullish zone around $2,500–$2,530, which was the previous breakout area. We can also see strong volume in this zone; if it pulls back here, absorbs liquidity, and cleanly retraces, a long opportunity will be sought.
If the first zone fails, there is a deeper level around $2,350–$2,380, which is a stronger support area and the foundation of the previous upward starting point. If it sweeps down to this area and ETH reclaims it, another swing long will be sought.
$BTC broke through resistance and had been consolidating below $85,500 for a week, then this morning an hourly candle tore through resistance, surging to $86,900.
$85,500 will be tested again; it was indeed tested and this time it broke through. That old ceiling is now the floor. As long as $85,500 holds, the next test point is $88,000. If it loses that, $84,500 is the retest level. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 $GTC has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$GTC 24h +26.05%, current price 0.13219. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 20 and 63 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 21.67% away from the 1-hour support at 0.10354 and about 39.19% away from resistance at 0.184. Putting these two distances together helps clarify which side needs more evidence. Looking only at price changes can easily mistake already traveled space for space yet to be covered.
Volume does not back the price movement: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.39 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s easier to understand this market phase as equipment acceptance testing: running without load doesn’t count as completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels give results first, then discussing direction is more honest. Do you think oversold conditions are enough to change the rhythm, or must we wait for the structure to stop making new lows? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull Talk.The moment the non-farm payroll data came out, I laughed.
Not because the data was bad, but because I laughed at those still holding long positions in SanDisk.
29,000 new jobs added, expected 90,000, less than half the forecast. Unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Bitcoin immediately surged to 87,000, up more than 3% intraday.
But SanDisk? Still stuck at 1737, without even a decent rebound.
It should rise but doesn’t—that’s the biggest bearish signal.
Think about it, with such poor non-farm data, rate hike expectations have cooled, risk assets are rising, so why isn’t SanDisk moving?
Because no one is buying. David Tepper liquidated all his holdings in Q2, not a single share left. Renaissance Technologies cut 99.4% of its position.
Morningstar’s fair value for SanDisk is 1000, now at 1737, a premium of over 70%.
Institutions are exiting, valuation is at the top, good news comes but it doesn’t rise.
Put these three things together, the direction is clear without guessing.
My short at 1887.5 is still open, with an unrealized profit close to 80%. But that’s not the point. The point is, how long are you going to hold that long position?
Non-farm data can’t even lift it, what else are you hoping for?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Where are those people who shouted 1500, 1600, 1700 at the beginning? Come out and take a walk!
Bitcoin keeps pushing up, the non-farm payroll night is chaotic, but only $ZEC can't rise or hold steady.
Now it's good, it directly started to fall, current price 1367.
I just ask: why should it go up to 1600? Because it's an altcoin?
ETH is just over 2000, an altcoin wants to touch 1600, 1700, who gave it the courage?
My short position at 1385 has already gained more than 60 points, those who laughed at me for being stubborn at the beginning, now I don't know who is laughing at whom.
Don't talk to me about faith, the faith of altcoins is to pump and dump. When the market tightens a bit, their true colors show.
I continue to hold the short position, the target is still the same: see below 1300.
If you disagree, come debate in the comments.
$BTC
$ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% After the breakout retest, two scenarios
Bitcoin breaks the previous high, then retests before rising again. The pattern is indeed beautiful, but there are basically two paths ahead.
One is a sudden large bearish candle dropping back below the breakout level, which would be an excellent short entry point; the other is continuing upward to touch the 95,800 to 97,000 range, then coming back for another retest. Currently, there is no comfortable shorting position; hard shorts are basically top-fishing on the left side.
If you want to try shorting around 87,300, stop loss needs to be set 500 to 800 points away—don’t hold through the risk. Those holding long positions are indeed comfortable now, but volatility at high levels is also large, so taking some profits off the table is never wrong. $BTCLet's take a look at the Ethereum section. The price levels are all the same as before. Everyone should seize the opportunity—enter the market when the level is reached, and don't force your way when the conditions disappear. Ethereum price level: ◉ Around 2,780: Look for shorts. Short positions still don't have separate stop-losses, so please manage your risk according to your own criteria. ◉ Around 2,650: Light position and try going long. ◉ 2,600: Add more long positions. ◉ If 2,400 is breached: Stop loss on long positions. Today's Ethereum trend has been moving quite a bit between our two price levels. The OKX perpetual contract 1-hour K-line at 4 PM reached a high of 2,777.7, just about 2 points away from 2,780; After that, it consolidated between 2,735~2,770, and after the non-farm payroll release tonight, the highest was only 2,768.55. After 10 a.m., it followed Bitcoin downward, falling below 2,700, which is about 2,692 in the screenshot. In other words, the price has approached the previous level but hasn't truly reached 2,780; Now it's moving down, but still about forty points away from the lower 2,650. The price hasn't changed, so when it arrives, do as it is; If the price hasn't reached or the conditions are gone, don't force it. Technically, this time let's look at the 1-hour chart. The upper red range is roughly between 2,765 and 2,790, with a Weak High marker next to it. Today's high was just a pullback after entering this range. Below are several blue zones: between 2,690 and 2,700Crypto Market Weekly Report | BTC retakes 86,000, key focus for next week
The market was grinding early this week, then suddenly surged.
BTC hovered around 83,000 for several days, then accelerated noticeably on Friday, surging back up to 86,000; ETH also returned to around 2,700. However, BTC remains stronger this round, with its market dominance climbing back toward 60%, showing clear preference for mainstream assets, while altcoins have yet to fully take off.
This rally is also related to U.S. employment data.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, unemployment rose to 4.2%, indicating a clear cooling in employment. Market concerns about further Fed tightening have eased, allowing BTC to continue pushing higher on positive sentiment, with overall market mood warming significantly.
But I won’t call a bull market just because of a short rally.
BTC price has risen, and the futures market is clearly heating up. Since September 30, BTC open interest has increased by about $2.3 billion, and funding rates are rising, showing more long positions. Although the market is strong, leverage is building up quickly, so a shakeout along the way is quite normal.
Next week, I’m mainly watching around 87,000.
If BTC holds above this level, I’ll remain bullish, targeting 90,000 first; if it spikes then quickly falls back, we need to watch for a pullback.
ETH is still following BTC, while altcoins are more like localized rotations.
In summary: the overall trend is temporarily bullish, but this level is not suitable for blind chasing. Whether 87,000 can hold may be the first key dividing line for next week’s market.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Key BTC levels now:
* 🟢 $86K–$87K: immediate area to watch.
* 🚀 Break/hold above $87K: could keep the post-NFP momentum going.
* 🔴 Loss of $86K: watch for a retracement toward the lower intraday levels.
* ⚠️ Weak NFP is supportive because it reduces pressure for another Fed hike, but BTC can still experience a sharp reversal after the initial NFP reaction.Finally, let's wrap up with the news and what to watch next. The focus is on the nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 PM, summarized in order (Taiwan time). #非農就業 September, nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000. In August, it was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, and in July, from 21,000 to -10,000, a total decrease of 60,000 over two months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the expected 4.1%, mainly due to the labor force participation rate increasing to 61.8% and more people entering the labor market; the U6 unemployment rate fell to 7.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and 3.0% year-over-year, marking the lowest since May 2021. After the #市場反應 data release, traders reduced their bets on the Fed's rate hike in October. U.S. Treasury yields first fell, with the 10-year yield hitting as high as 5.18% and the 2-year yield at 4.71%; But around 11 p.m., it rebounded again, with the 10-year yield at about 5.243% and the 2-year at about 4.812%. U.S. stocks opened sharply higher, with the Dow up +0.56%, S&P +0.76%, Nasdaq +1.14%, S&P tech stocks hitting new highs, and Nvidia shares also hitting new highs. The US dollar fell to 157 against the yen. #幣圈 Bitcoin surged past 86,000 at noon, peaked at 87,239 (OKX) at the time of non-farm payroll release, then pulled back after 10 a.m., falling below 86,000, screenshotSnapshot: 2026-10-02 23:57:08 (Asia/Shanghai). The candlestick chart that has not yet finished may participate in real-time warnings. Scans: 102 cores, 93 successes, 9 failures; Current Top 20 gainers have a pre-hit rate of signals over the past 48 hours: 15.0% (3/20). [Official Early Warning (up to 3)] No targets that meet the conditions yet. [Preliminary Observation (up to 5)] 1. MANA-USDT | Base 13 | Quality 100 | 24H Amount 3.13 million Current Price 0.0999 | Entry 0.09346~0.0948619 | Trigger 0.09346 Stop Loss 0.08605945 | Take Profit 1 0.1063132 | Take Profit 2 0.1144147 Basis: Break above 60-day high, break 20-day high, 4H low raise, 4H double bottom pullback; Daily/4H volume increase 12.71/5.33; 24H 12.56%, 7-day 7.35%. Already broken, waiting to enter the pullback zone, no chasing the rally 2. AAVE-USDT | Base 12 | Quality 100 | 24H Amount 15.33 million Current Price 183.12 | Entry 187.86~190.6779 | Trigger 187.86 Stop Loss 156.093 | Take Profit 1 239.033 | Take Profit 2 272.209 Basis: Breakthrough of 60-day high, 20-day high, near the upper boundary of the 4H range, 4H lowAffected by the NEAR Intents security incident, NEAR treasury company SVRN dropped more than 20% during the US stock trading session, closing at $39.19. The decline was significantly greater than that of the NEAR token itself, reflecting the equity market's higher sensitivity to ecosystem security incidents and indicating that the impact of the incident has spread from the blockchain to related publicly listed companies.$ALGO is in the middle of the range, first looking at the close
The price is still within the range, with no new short-term directional trend formed. The high and low points from the past few hours are at 0.1337 / 0.12831 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candlestick is at 0.13134 USDT.
The trading activity in the last 15 minutes is noticeably more active than in the previous hours. Trading activity has increased, but the price has not left the middle area, so it is temporarily considered a probe within the range.
If the 15-minute close later breaks above the previous high and does not fall back within half an hour, a breakout direction can be considered; conversely, if the close falls below the low, this range-based approach should be abandoned.NEAR ecosystem cross-chain intent layer NEAR Intents was exploited, resulting in a loss of approximately 3.8 million USD. The vulnerability originated from defects in the interaction between Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and contracts. The official team has fixed the contracts and promised full compensation. Deposit, withdrawal, and access services across multiple networks were suspended for about 12 hours. On-chain tracking shows that the stolen funds were transferred out and cross-chained to the Bitcoin network. The attacker’s address interacted with addresses marked as related to North Korean organizations, making fund recovery difficult. This incident temporarily suppresses ecosystem security confidence and capital inflow. Just checked the floating profit of my long position. I was pretty sleepy before, but now I can't really go back to sleep.
BTC has climbed from 85,000 this round, and from a macro perspective, there's only one thing — the non-farm payrolls came out at just 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, the data couldn't be weaker. According to the old script, weak employment = rising expectations of rate cuts = risk assets should take off. So what happened? No takeoff. It's not that the good news is useless, it's that the market had already priced in the "weak employment" scenario long ago.
I'm not surprised, really. Betting on direction based on this kind of data gets slapped in the face eight times out of ten.
What we should really focus on now isn't the price, but the position size. The perpetual annualized funding rate has floated close to 10%, and the open interest has climbed back above 650,000 contracts. To put it plainly, the bulls have reason, but leverage is too tight. If the price holds above 86,000 and grinds upward, the high funding rate can be absorbed, and the trend remains; but if the funding rate doesn't drop and the price crashes back to the consolidation zone from when the data came out, even a normal pullback could trigger a chain reaction of deleveraging.
No chasing, no rush. Hold what you have now. Whether 85,000 holds or not will speak for itself next week.
In life, you really don't need to do too much; only those who can wait can hold on. $BTC Chainlink and Swift have completed a pilot using the Swift messaging network and ISO 20022 standard, leveraging the Chainlink Runtime Environment to achieve full-process automated coordination of tokenized stock dividends—from announcement, payment to reconciliation—across 4 blockchains; this progress points to a feasible path for financial institutions to access on-chain ledgers and tokenized equity settlement.On-chain fund flow shows that a whale address first transferred about 5.97 million USD stablecoins to a centralized exchange, then withdrew 39,018 AAVE (approximately 6.2 million USD), completing a large position build within about 5 hours, which is a typical spot accumulation behavior. This purchase accounts for a limited proportion relative to AAVE's market cap of about 2.54 billion USD. The price change during the event window was only -0.03%, providing some short-term sentiment boost but unlikely to reverse the mid-term trend based on a single fund movement.$BTC follows the one-hour bullish trend, pulling back to a long entry point. The 87000 level has been tested with a surge 3 times, each test absorbing selling pressure, and the probability of a breakout increases each time.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Tonight's nonfarm payroll data is 29,000, expected 90,000, a huge positive surprise, but SOL only rose by 0.5U, now sideways at 122. BTC and ETH are both playing dead; those chasing longs are trapped, those chasing shorts are hit, a double kill for bulls and bears.
Don't blame the market, blame the smart whales. They secretly pumped before the data release, then when retail investors rushed in after seeing the news, they dumped directly. The positive news turned into a tool for selling, plus the market is worried about an economic recession, so buyers don't dare to move.
The first phase is to take profits and go flat; I won't get involved in this messy trade tonight. I'll wait for it to drop into a golden pit, then we'll come back to pick up the bloodied chips.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC CryptoRank released the list of large crypto asset gains for Q3 2026 on October 1st, with UNI rising 217% for the quarter, alongside BTW up 2194%, QNT up 350%, PUMP up 307%, and ENA up 274%. Data shows that the altcoin sector strengthened significantly in September, with capital clearly rotating towards large altcoins in Q3. For UNI, sector momentum provides a positive backdrop for trend capital attention, but the accumulated gains also imply increased profit-taking pressure.Let's take a look at Dogecoin. The price level is the same as before. Everyone should seize the opportunity—enter when the level is right, and don't force your way when the conditions are gone. Dogecoin price levels: 1. Short position: 0.1. 2. Increase position: 0.11. 3. Stop loss: 0.12. Today, Dogecoin followed the market upward by a bit. The OKX perpetual contract at 4 PM had a 1-hour K strike, reaching a high of 0.09792, which was the 24-hour high; After the non-farm payroll release in the evening, the high was 0.0976 and the 9 point high of 0.09773, but neither rose further. After 10 PM, it followed Bitcoin downward, dropping to 0.09466, which was around 0.0949 at the time of the screenshot. So today, when it was closest to 0.1, it was still about two percent short and didn't touch our short position. The current price is about five percent below 0.1. The price hasn't changed. When it reaches 0.1, stick to the plan, add at 0.11, exit at 0.12; If it hasn't reached or the conditions have disappeared, don't force it. From a technical perspective, let's look at the 1-hour chart this time. The most obvious above is the red range from 0.1025 to 0.1045, which is the high area from a few days ago; Below is a Weak High line, around 0.0998, which is roughly the same as our 0.1 short position. Further down is a red mark at 0.09655. The blue range below is roughly between 0.0915 and 0.094, with a line of 0.0935 insideShareholders have approved the $1 billion merger of XRP Treasury company Evernorth with Armada II, a deal expected to bring approximately $300 million in cash. Investors are also contributing in-kind XRP. Upon completion, the company is expected to hold about 473 million XRP, with total financing exceeding $1 billion, and plans to list on Nasdaq next week under the ticker XRPN. This marks the first time an XRP ecosystem entity enters a major U.S. securities exchange at a significant scale, enhancing compliance and institutional recognition; actual post-listing capital inflows and fundamental realization still need to be monitored.$BTC has not broken the new high of 87300
The non-farm payroll data ultimately turned out to be a false alarm.
After the data was released
The positive factors have basically all been absorbed by the market.
The market decline is so smooth
How can one resist shorting in such a situation.
Short position floating profit is 4060.91$USDT
The return rate has reached 137.31%
The market has already given the answer
Expectations are fulfilled, the rest is up to the trend.
Wishing everyone a happy National Day🎉
$ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 According to a Wells Fargo report, AWS will raise the reserved GPU computing prices by 15% starting next week, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of price increases. This affects mainstream AI training chips such as H100/H200, B200/B300, following a previous price hike of 20%. From a news perspective, AI training and inference demand continues to exceed cloud providers' supply, keeping high-end GPUs scarce in the cloud. This cost pressure strengthens the value proposition of decentralized computing power networks like Bittensor as alternatives to centralized cloud computing power, constituting a structural positive for the AI and DePIN sectors. TAO is a related target in this theme.Liquidated several times, but these days I finally managed to avoid holding losing positions and strictly cut losses. Made a small profit and closed positions in 4 days, won 8 consecutive trades, and the feeling of conquering the inner demons is really great.
$ETH $ZEC $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI
Staking WLFI requires providing a reward of 50 million to 100 million USD1 to have any staking effect. Who has such a large volume to stake? Only the Trump family and the companies partnered with them.
Do you retail investors have such a large volume to stake?
This shows that the market doesn't have high trust in this coin. Everyone is selling off.
The role of WLFI is actually to pump blood into USD1,
It's a very simple principle. The Trump family stakes the chips they hold. They get rewarded every time. Their price will keep dropping.
How much can you retail investors buy? You stake it, but it has no effect at all.
And they will secretly sell as well.
So this is basically a scam.
The volume of this coin is too large. People trapped since last September are still holding.
There's nothing they can do. The Trump family has no trust. Originally, it was a partnership with Sun Yuchen to harvest.
Neither of them has a big vision.
That's how it ended up like this.
This coin is dead.
They won't pump the price for you.
Pumping the price to let you break even.
You stake your coins and can't move them, but they can pump the price while selling their coins out.
Even if they don't sell, the volume of coins Trump holds is huge. The weekly rewards he gets are more than all retail investors combined.
It's just a cycle of cutting leeks.
To keep USD1 alive. The latest round of Injective community buyback is expected to permanently burn nearly $300,000 worth of INJ. Participants receive ecosystem revenue shares based on their contributions and can claim tokenized stock rewards called Stockdrop. After the burn, circulating supply is further reduced, strengthening the deflationary framework. Compared to the $737 million market cap, the burn volume in a single round is limited, and the actual price impact depends more on the continuity of subsequent rounds.Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$SAND Short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.2425%, price -0.05%, open interest -9.46%. Total position contraction, limited net price change, short positions across settlements still bear holding costs corresponding to the current rate.
$XAU Long side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 8-hour rate +0.0408%, price +0.15%, open interest +2.41%. Price rise and position increase are synchronized; holding long positions beyond settlement at the current rate, funding fees will raise the breakeven price.Injective's Meridian mainnet upgrade (IIP-701) has been approved with about 99% support from stakers and launched as v1.20.4. The upgrade embeds compliance rules directly into tokenized assets, allowing issuers to set holder and transfer conditions, and enables EVM applications to access native liquidity and settlement systems; meanwhile, the network has started testing a private RFQ market for institutions as a preparatory step for the upcoming privacy layer CypherOS. INJ deposits and withdrawals, which were paused by some exchanges during the upgrade, have now resumed.Canary Capital has submitted the third revision of the S-1 for the staked INJ ETF. The plan is to use at least 90% of the trust's INJ holdings for staking, with a 21-day unlocking period for staked shares. Staking rewards belong to the trust and may be reinvested. If approved, institutional funds entering the market will need to lock their positions through staking, which could simultaneously increase spot demand and staking scale while reducing available circulating supply; however, the third revision does not guarantee approval, as the final outcome depends on regulatory approval pace and actual capital inflow.🚨 ETH WHALE GOES FULL LONG AHEAD OF NON-FARM PAYROLLS!
Big Brother Maji is making a massive bet ahead of tonight’s 8:30 PM NFP data release. 👀
🐳 BTC Long • Position: ~440 BTC
• Entry: ~$84,627.80
• Position Value: ~$37.98M
• Unrealized PnL: +$746.3K
🐳 ETH Long • Position: ~32,000 ETH
• Entry: ~$2,683.08
• Position Value: ~$87.11M
• Unrealized PnL: +$2.05M
🐳 HYPE Long • Position: ~190,000 HYPE
• Entry: ~$90
• Position Value: ~$17.13M
• Unrealized PnL: +$273K
🔥#DailyOrbit As of around midnight Beijing time on October 3, the BTC reference price was approximately $85,269, down about 2.1% from the intraday high of $87,071. The short-term trend is a rise followed by a pullback; the macro outlook is bullish, but the upward momentum has not yet recovered.
Support levels to watch first are $85,000, then $84,000 to $84,100, with a more important range support at $82,500. On the upside, first see if $85,700 can be reclaimed, then watch resistance between $87,000 and $87,400. Only after breaking through and holding on a retest will conditions be favorable to challenge $90,000.
Adding positions should wait for confirmation: a stop in the decline after testing support, a recovery back above the price level, or stabilizing above $85,700 and holding on a retest before considering gradually increasing spot holdings. If volume expands and support is broken, it is not advisable to keep adding positions just because the price has dropped. Currently, lacking volume, open interest, and continuous order book verification, it cannot be confirmed that major players are absorbing the supply.
On the macro side, September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, below the expected 90,000; unemployment rate at 4.2%, average hourly earnings up 0.1% month-over-month, and the previous two months’ employment figures were revised down by a total of 60,000. The data reduces recent rate hike pressure and is bullish for BTC in the short term, but does not indicate that rate cuts have begun.
Going forward, attention should be paid to U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices. CPI will be released at 20:30 on October 14 Beijing time, and PPI at 20:30 on October 15; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may offset the positive impact of cooling employment. $BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Ondo's treasury token USDY currently has over 90% of its supply deployed on the Sei Network, with an on-chain value of approximately $259 million. Sei claims it has become the primary issuance and custody chain for USDY. USDY is a tokenized product pegged to U.S. Treasury bonds and is a core asset in the RWA (Real World Asset) sector. This concentrated deployment reflects institutional-grade real-world asset preference for the network and also confirms Ondo's deep integration in institutional scenarios. For ONDO, this distribution also means a high concentration on a single chain: if the liquidity or user structure of that chain's ecosystem changes, the stability of USDY's deployment and the sustainability of Ondo's ecosystem narrative could be affected. Currently, the token price has not shown a clear correlation with this, and the event is more of a mid-to-long-term ecological structural insight.Nonfarm Night Crypto Market Review: Oversold Signals Emerge, How Far Can the Rebound Go?
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The data seems bullish, but the market votes with its feet—good news fully priced in becomes bad news; the real pricing logic lies in the expectation gap.
BTC current price 85888, 15-minute RSI6=26.63 deeply oversold, MACD bearish momentum continues to expand. After surging to 87239, it quickly fell back under macro pressure, resistance at 86600, support at 85200, strong defense at 83700. Short-term rebound repair demand exists, but sentiment has clearly weakened.
ETH current price 2723, moving down in sync with BTC, RSI6=27.78 also oversold. Resistance at 2760, support at 2680, key defense at 2672. Lacking independent narrative, fully following the overall market rhythm.
ZEC current price 1378, after oversold rebound, fell back with the market, RSI6=45.46 neutral. Resistance 1410-1420, support 1340, bottom 1305. Relatively elastic, highly sensitive to sentiment.
Core view: Stronger nonfarm data pushes up rate hike expectations, triggering risk asset pullback. All coins are oversold short-term, technical rebound is expected, but trend sentiment has weakened. Coupled with simultaneous outflows from BTC and ETH spot ETFs and US Treasury yields hitting new highs frequently, capital enthusiasm continues to cool. Do not chase the rebound; wait to hold support before considering opportunities.
The above is only a technical market review and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC ENJ is still up about 14.6%, but two-hour contract open interest has shrunk by about 76.7%.
As of 23:36 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $0.03316, with a 24-hour high of $0.04077 and a low of $0.02893, a volatility of about 40.9%; the current price has retraced about 18.7% from the high, with a trading volume of about $2.11 million.
OKEx daily chart shows the median trading volume over the past 7 full trading days is about $115,000, which has expanded about 18.4 times in this round. Hourly statistics show the nominal value of open interest dropped from about $6.72 million at 21:00 to about $1.56 million at 23:00; the current funding rate is about -0.0782%, with perpetual contracts trading at a slight premium of about 0.12% over spot.
My judgment is that the price still maintains double-digit gains, but high-leverage positions are rapidly exiting, and the market has shifted from a squeeze phase to a chip re-pricing phase. The easiest misjudgment is to interpret the decline in open interest as risk fully released; the negative funding rate still indicates shorts are paying fees, and the current price has not fallen back to the intraday low.
Next, watch $0.04077 and $0.033. If open interest no longer surges when approaching the previous high and the funding rate converges, spot support is more credible; if $0.033 is broken and open interest continues to decline, the pullback looks more like a position reduction that is not yet over.
$ENJ Solana's leading treasury company Forward Industries disclosed that as of the end of Q4 fiscal year 2026, its holdings of SOL and equivalents increased from 7.553 million to 8.501 million, a single-quarter increase of 948,600, up 13%, accounting for about 1.4% of the circulating supply, with an average cost of approximately $83 for the new holdings. On a fully diluted basis, the SOL per share rose from 0.0730 to 0.0806, a quarterly growth of 10.4%, indicating that financing purchases of coins continue to increase the SOL exposure per share, and the company's long-term allocation demand is strengthening.Payment technology company Fiserv launched a digital asset platform on Solana, becoming the first to support Roughrider Coin issued by banks in North Dakota, enabling more than 90 banks and credit unions to complete payment settlements within seconds without managing wallets and private keys themselves. This is a practical case of the state-level banking system directly accessing the public chain stablecoin payment track through existing software infrastructure, providing institutional-level adoption endorsement for Solana.$TRUMP must be staked for 180 days and voted at least once every 90 days to receive rewards. The initial reward pool only has 1.25 million USD1, distributed over 180 days. This is a shared pool; the more people stake, the less each person gets. Even if retail investors stake a lot, it can't dilute the Trump family's 4.6 billion tokens. Unlocking pressure remains.
WLFI is currently about $0.055, with a circulating market cap of about 1.8 billion, but a fully diluted valuation of 5.4 billion — nearly 70% of tokens are locked and will be gradually released over the next few years. Those who got trapped in September last year are still inside; these people face ongoing pressure.
Justin Sun has turned hostile.
Justin Sun invested $45 million and was once the largest external investor. But WLFI used smart contract freezing features to lock his tokens, and he sued, accusing WLFI of leaving a "backdoor" in the contract. The court has rejected WLFI's request to move the case to secret arbitration; Justin Sun's personal claims will be heard in open court. The lawsuit is not yet decided, but the notion of a "partner harvest" no longer holds — now it is an open hostile relationship.
Reports say WLFI sold 5.9 billion tokens from the treasury without notifying the community, allowing insiders to cash out over $1.6 billion, while early investors are locked for two years. Meanwhile, wallets associated with the team burned 100 million tokens, but 17.8 billion tokens (worth about 11.9 billion) remain in the unlocking contract waiting to be released.