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"Maji's Perpetual Portfolio: $ETH Leading, $BTC Awaiting Breakthrough"
Maji currently holds four perpetual long positions with a total nominal value of about $149 million, an overall leverage of 17.64x, and zero available margin. High leverage and zero buffer mean profits run fast when the wind is favorable, but there is little room to retreat when it is against.
By position, ETH is the absolute main force: 34,800 coins, 25x full position, entry price $2,675, position value about $93.41 million, unrealized profit about $299,000. BTC holds 390 coins, 40x full position, entry price $83,796, valued at about $32.56 million, currently an unrealized loss of about $117,200, waiting for a breakthrough. HYPE long position of 190,000 coins, 10x full position, unrealized profit about $65,200; PUMP long position of 1 billion coins, 10x full position, unrealized profit about $77,600, both recovering.
After PCE landed, market sentiment warmed up, and this portfolio began to enter a more comfortable range. However, ETH continues to lead, BTC still needs to prove itself; with zero available margin, rhythm is more important than direction.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 10/2 Daily Report
Just yesterday it was said that there was concrete progress between the US and Iran, but today it completely backfired.
Rubio has issued a persona non grata order to the Iranian delegation, and the negotiations have reached a deadlock. Trump still says verbally that the Iran issue will "end soon, no matter how," but this time he added: the bombing might intensify after the midterm elections. US media also confirmed that the US military has deployed a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 troops to the Middle East. The negotiation table has flipped, but military actions are escalating instead.
However, insiders say that the Iranian foreign minister has privately softened his stance, willing to allow inspectors back into the bombed nuclear facilities in exchange for sanctions relief. Publicly they are at odds, but behind the scenes it seems talks are still ongoing; this kind of contrast has been seen several times in this round.
The market is also unsettled. The US Dollar Index surged to 102, hitting a new high since April last year; the UK 30-year government bond yield jumped directly to 6%, the first time since 1998. The pressure on long-term interest rates has been ongoing for nearly two weeks without easing.
Fed officials are even more divided this time; Cook directly named AI as the biggest inflation risk next year, and it has not eased yet.
#USIranSituation #DollarIndex #FederalReserve 📊 $BTC News: The SEC has proposed a new framework allowing investment advisors and funds to self-custody crypto assets in certain cases, and state trust companies can also act as custodians, which is favorable for medium- to long-term capital inflow. I'm watching the 84,718–84,862 resistance zone, which is also a sniper spot for the bears. I'll only consider going long if it holds above this level. The RSI is still around 60.3, so momentum isn't fully charged. Do you think this wave can break through this resistance directly? 79.70. On January 19, 2025, TRUMP coin hit its all-time high.
2.06. On October 2, 2026, the price after the dinner announcement.
Drop: 97.4%.
After the announcement, the price once surged to $2.25, then immediately fell back.
Increase: 10%. Then, nothing more.
This is not the first time. In April 2025, when the first dinner announcement came out, TRUMP coin rose from $9 to $14.40, a 60% increase.
In March 2026, the second dinner brought a 36% increase.
Now the third time, 10%.
What do you see?
The same card played three times. The first time was a royal flush, the second a straight, the third—not even a three-pair.
💊 Breaking down the illusion of the “Dinner Market Rescue”
First, the details of this dinner:
November 22, Washington Trump National Private Club
The first 185 registered investors invited
VIP status scored by “participation,” locked on November 12
Slogan: “The world’s most exclusive dinner”
Three “legendary figures” will attend—the names not yet announced
The club clearly states: “No attendee will have the opportunity for a private meeting with the president”
Translation:
You spend money to buy coins to climb the ranking. Once ranked high enough, you get a ticket. The president will come in, but you won’t meet him. You will get a commemorative poster and a bottle of “TRUMP perfume.”
At the last event, Trump only made a “brief appearance.” Some participants didn’t even get to see him.
This time they make it clear in advance: don’t expect a private meeting.
The organizer knows the last experience wasn’t great.
📉 Why is the “Dinner Effect” getting weaker each time?
Because the market isn’t stupid.
The first dinner sold novelty—the president hosting a crypto dinner was unprecedented.
The second sold inertia—some still hoped for a miracle.
The third, the market has seen clearly:
This isn’t about “benefits for holders,” it’s about “creating reasons to buy.”
When a token needs constant dinners, posters, and perfume giveaways to maintain its price, it’s no longer an asset. It’s an ongoing paid fan meeting.
Analyst Crypto Patel puts it bluntly: this crash was “entirely predictable” because the token lacks real use cases, ecosystem, and roadmap, relying solely on brand appeal and political hype.
🔪 The issuer’s “self-rescue” is even more chilling
TRUMP issuer Fight Fight Fight is doing one thing: raising $200 million to $1 billion to establish a “digital asset reserve company” to hoard TRUMP coins.
In plain language:
The project team plans to buy their own coins to prop up the price.
Think about this logic.
When a company needs to set up a special entity to buy its own product, you have to ask the simplest question:
Who will take the risk?
The issuer hoards coins themselves. After hoarding, the price goes up. Then what? Who buys?
More painfully, Fight Fight Fight controls about 65% of the total supply—out of 1 billion TRUMP coins, about 650 million are in their hands, gradually unlocking.
On one hand, they say they will establish a treasury company to “hoard coins,” on the other, they hold 650 million waiting to unlock.
Guess what, after unlocking, will they choose “long-term holding” or “sell while liquidity lasts”?
😐 The overlooked number
Nansen data: by the end of June 2026, 988,905 accounts lost money on TRUMP coin, with cumulative losses of $3.81 billion.
About two-thirds of buyers are at a loss.
Meanwhile, Trump himself earned $636 million from this project.
You lost. He profited.
Is this a “win-win”? No. It’s “you won a ticket to his fan meeting, he won your principal.”
/ Final calculation
From $79.70 to $2.06 took 20 months.
From $2.06 back to $79.70 requires a 38x increase.
The first dinner brought a 60% increase. The second 36%. The third 10%.
At this decreasing rate, the next dinner’s increase will probably only buy a bottle of TRUMP perfume.
Will the third dinner bring 38x?
You do the math.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP $OMI $OMI 0.0002999, up 13.38%. It surged strongly today, climbing straight from the bottom to 0.00033, now slightly pulling back. Focus on the RSI, which has soared to 82.42, seriously overbought! The price is completely detached from EMA7 (0.00025). This kind of vertical surge is a short squeeze; those on board should take profits on rallies, and those not yet in should definitely avoid catching the falling knife. Wait for a pullback near 0.00025 before considering entry.
$SCR 0.03285, up 31.24%. In the L2 sector, this one is even more violent, rising over 30 points in one day, jumping directly from 0.018 to 0.032. RSI is 74.14, also overbought. EMA7 (0.026) is quite far away. With such a large single-day gain, profit-taking could hit the market at any time. Don’t chase the highs; wait for a pullback near 0.026 to stabilize before buying, and exit if it falls below 0.024.
$WIN 0.00004639, down 9.95%. This one is different from the previous two, having just experienced a surge and now starting to correct. It dropped from 0.000055 and is now just sitting on EMA7 (0.00046). RSI is 62.5, the heat hasn’t fully cooled yet. If it can hold at this level
Summary: OMI and SCR are overbought after a surge, carrying high risk; WIN is in a correction phase after a surge, looking for support. In times like these, stay calm, don’t chase highs, control your impulses and wait for pullbacks. Protecting your principal is the most important.
#OMI #SCR #WIN #MarketAnalysis Numbers laid out: $MEGA three consecutive days of bullish candles — 9/30 +18%, 10/1 +5.8%, 10/2 at writing +24.6%, current price 0.0537, 24h high 0.056. OKX perpetual $78M, spot $99M, totaling 178M USDT.
Not a pump. Before 9/30, the entire September was in a narrow range of 0.034–0.046, with daily average volume of 1-3M MEGA. On 9/30, a single candle volume was 2.2M, pulling from 0.040 to 0.0508 +18% — covering the monthly high. On 10/1, contract volume was 57.7 million contracts, 200 times the daily average in September — a real take-up, not a sell-off. On 10/2 it accelerated: early 4H pulled to 0.056, single candle volume 16.6 million contracts.
Capital side: funding settled +0.0046% almost flat, premium -0.124% slight discount — no imbalance between longs and shorts. Combined with the low volume bottom in September, this wave is a capital relay rally, not a high-level distribution.
0.055 is the key 30% neckline; breaking it leads to 0.066; a pullback without breaking 0.048 still has a fourth wave. What do you think, is this $MEGA wave an AI narrative rotation or an independent ME series rally?Why must Sepolia nodes upgrade two sets of clients simultaneously?
Ethereum nodes are not a single software package handling all tasks. The execution layer is responsible for transactions, smart contracts, and state changes, while the consensus layer handles validator voting, block ordering, and finality. Glamsterdam includes both the Amsterdam execution layer upgrade and the Gloas consensus layer upgrade, so Sepolia node operators must ensure both sides support the October 6 rule. Upgrading only one side will cause the node to fail to follow the network correctly after the fork point. This design seems to increase operational complexity but separates different responsibilities and avoids relying on a single implementation for the entire system. For $ETH holders, the significance is not "needing to install two sets of software," but that network security comes from multiple layers of rules working together, and any upgrade requires cross-client coordination. The value of the testnet lies here: to detect interface issues between the execution layer, consensus layer, and external build tools in advance. A smooth activation is not just pressing a button but many independent teams reaching a runnable consensus on the same rules.
If any layer lags behind, the node may see a different world after the fork point.ETF has drained funds for two consecutive days, yet the coin price first touched back to 85k—who do you trust before the non-farm payroll?
Farside: On 9/30, -148.7 million broke the nine-day streak, on 10/1 another -92.9 million, institutional side net daily redemption. OKX BTC around 84900, 24h high about 85266, around 83169, climbing the upper edge in green—cash flow and price temporarily disconnected.
My own take (not a trade call): 1) Don’t treat "touching 85" as a breakout; daily close above 85.6 is needed to open up; 2) Reduce position before 20:30 non-farm payroll; 3) If wages are strong, the probability of rate hike could rise from about 40%—first defend 83 then talk about hikes.
Public sources: Farside, OKX spot, CNBC/Newsquawk farm preview.
Poll: A Funds flow is more real, wait and see / B Outflow priced in, dare to buy on dip / C Lie flat before non-farm?Big Brother Maji quietly made a slight adjustment again, with a total exposure of 159 million, no reverse liquidation, following the old path of small-scale position reduction and lowering the liquidation line.
BTC dropped from 546 coins to 543 coins, still 40X full position long, floating profit expanded to 125,600 U, and the liquidation price was pressed down to 74,610.29, further widening the volatility range.
ETH basically unchanged, holding firmly 34,000 coins, 25X full position long, floating profit of 890,200 U, still the core ballast force of the entire account, with the forced liquidation line at 2,539.93.
HYPE slightly reduced to 225,000 coins, floating loss narrowed to 517,300 U, but no cut loss, still leaving a rebound window for the sentiment position.
The closer to the non-farm payrolls, the less he changes direction drastically, instead using small rolling optimizations to improve defensive positions. This slight adjustment is the last reinforcement before the big battle—bullish stance unchanged, just proactively cutting some chips and moving the liquidation defense line lower, making the account more able to withstand extreme sweeps at the moment of data release.
A large position is not a gamble, but a step-by-step retreat of the lifeline. $BTC $ETH Brothers, has everyone gone on holiday?
Recently, the $ETH market has been eerily quiet, oscillating back and forth around 2700, with neither bulls nor bears willing to make the first move.
But the more this kind of market drags on, the more it tortures people.
I've been holding my ETH short position for almost a week now, and honestly, it's getting a bit hard to hold on.
I originally planned to wait for a pullback, but Ethereum just won't drop; the 2700 level keeps getting tugged back and forth, and the bears face a daily psychological test.
Meanwhile, some changes have appeared in the market.
An ancient address that participated in the Ethereum ICO in 2015 suddenly moved 133,000 ETH, worth about $356 million. Old chips with a cost basis of only $0.31 started moving, instantly tightening market sentiment.
Looking at the capital flow, ETH spot ETFs have recently seen continuous outflows, and institutional funds are becoming cautious.
Technically, resistance around 2747 above ETH still exists, with multiple attempts failing to break through. If it subsequently breaks the 2689 support, the short term may continue to test the 2630 or even 2597 areas.
If it doesn't fall, the bulls aren't worried;
If it can't rise, the bears are anxious too.
I'm still holding my short position, waiting for almost a week now, so a few more days won't hurt.
Brothers, do you think ETH will choose to break upwards next, or pull back down?
Can the bears hold on? Let's chat in the comments.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 $SOL: Long
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back and stabilize in the 118.50-119.00 range (near the Bollinger middle band) before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 119.76 (24-hour high); if this is effectively broken, then look to 120.11 (Bollinger upper band). Set stop loss below 116.90 (Bollinger lower band).
Core basis:
1. Short squeeze expectation on the chip side: The whale nominal long-short ratio reaches 372%, with the average long cost at 112.37 and an unrealized profit of 81%, while the short cost at 113.55 is deeply in loss, making it very likely to trigger a panic short covering, driving a short squeeze rally.
2. Technical consolidation and accumulation: After a significant rise from 95.66 on the 4-hour chart, the price is currently consolidating with low volume near the Bollinger middle band at 118.54, with higher lows continuously forming, a typical bullish continuation pattern with strong long momentum.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: There is obvious selling pressure at the previous highs of 119.76 and 124.95 above, making a direct breakout less likely. A pullback to the moving average to repair indicators and digest profits is needed before another upward attack; entering long on the pullback offers a better risk-reward ratio.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出 #Interest rate hike expectations delayed, September non-farm payrolls become the next key $BTC $ETH $SOL The three brothers are all standing at the critical threshold, as if they agreed to head to the exam together📈
The current market looks like three underperforming students all scoring 60 points:
BTC barely holds 84000, current price 84026.65 (24H -0.19%), standing firmly on tiptoes
ETH climbs back above 2700, current price 2703.59 (24H -1.18%), gasping and saying "I can still learn"
SOL touches the 120 mark, current price 120.05, basically saying "I arrived, but just barely"
But note, friends, all three are frantically testing the edge of the threshold, just like you checking your balance at the end of the month—just enough to survive, but not wealthy at all.
This is not a confident breakthrough; it's an awkward scene of bulls and bears tugging at the door, neither daring to make the first move❗
It's too early to say the trend has reversed; we can only say the market has reached a crossroads, hesitating whether to turn left or right.
Their respective key offense and defense scripts are as follows:
✅BTC 84000: Only with volume-backed stability can it qualify to jump to 85000–86000; if it falls below, this breakthrough is invalidated, and it will continue to oscillate and wash out, shaking you to doubt your life.
✅ETH 2700: The core lifeline of this round, the one that fell the most and looks the weakest; whether it can hold directly determines if the smaller altcoins behind can still muster strength to follow the dance.
✅SOL 120: Only with stable volume can it aim for 12Here’s a cleaner, more natural version:
SNDK Trading Mindset
$SNDK My account doesn’t have much U left, so I’ve reduced the leverage to just 1–3x. I’m not taking the risk of going higher anymore.
I’m going to slow things down. Making 5–10U a day is already enough—steady progress matters more than chasing a big win.
When you’re short on money, you always want to make big money quickly. When you’re impatient, you keep opening oversized positions. #DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH This market is really a bit exciting; it feels like Ethereum might soon experience a significant wave of volatility. Compared to continuing to push upward, I currently lean more towards a clear pullback first.
Since surging to $2800, ETH has repeatedly tested the $2750 area but has never effectively held and broken through. Does this trend somewhat resemble the post-surge market in August?
The current market is actually quite simple: either a volume breakout with a big bullish candle opening the upward space; or a failed breakout followed by a rapid plunge.
ETH is currently around $2700, and given the current relatively weak market environment, I personally think the probability of a downward pullback is higher. The scenario where it strongly breaks through and rushes to $3000, I currently only give about a 10% expectation.
Of course, the market never follows the script. If it really completes a breakout here, it means bulls might accelerate directly, and $3000 may not be out of reach.
So I have already started trying to position short. Friends who think my judgment is wrong can definitely go long with their own positions, and after the market moves, we can discuss based on actual holdings.
It's okay if you don't have real positions; differing views are normal, and the market ultimately depends on price movement.
#BTC #ETH #cryptocurrency #OctoberInterestRateHikeExpectationsFall #PCE #USTreasuryReally unexpected, Bitget @Bitget_zh was hacked for $387.5 million this time, and the entry point was actually a third-party security device it paid for?
SlowMist and Mandiant concluded: hackers first took control of two third-party security devices used by Bitget, one of which was exploited via a zero-day vulnerability, then laterally moved from the device into the production environment's wallet servers, forging transaction data. The approval process appeared normal, and the money was automatically released.
The earliest malicious traces were on August 31, but the money was only moved in the early hours of September 25, lurking for more than three weeks.
These hackers are really damn impressive, how did they do it? Was it General Jin from Cao County again?
But fortunately, the stolen funds from this Bitget hack are covered by the protection fund, so it's not a big problem. $BTC $ETH #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $ETH Ethereum, how much longer are you going to keep rising? It's really getting harder to manage 😂
It hasn't properly corrected for several days in a row; even a slight drop is immediately pulled back, giving the bears almost no chance.
The price often surges near $2730 then falls back, then continues to oscillate around $2690.
When in good shape, it tests around $2670; when weaker, it just grinds back and forth in this range.
From observing these days, it basically fluctuates repeatedly within about $20–30, making it not easy to profit in such a market.
If your principal and position size aren't enough, frequent trading can easily backfire. Instead of rushing to chase, it's better to wait until ETH truly establishes a direction and confirms an uptrend before considering gradually increasing your position.
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $ETHIf there is no team, can anyone take over this coin for development?
Technically yes, but "being able to change the code" and "being able to truly take over" are two different things.
1. Code level: It is originally permissionless
CKB was officially open-sourced by the Nervos Foundation on GitHub on November 28, 2018, positioned as the base layer of the Nervos network. It is itself a permissionless public blockchain, consensus uses PoW, employs the Eaglesong hash algorithm, and core components such as chain modules, transaction pool, and script system are modular independent code.
In other words, anyone is allowed to clone the repository, compile, and run nodes—this does not require anyone's approval.
2. Proposal level: There is an open channel, but it does not mean it can be implemented
Nervos has had an RFC mechanism (Request for Comments) since the early stages of the project, aimed at providing an open community-driven path for improving new protocols and best practices, similar to Ethereum's EIP and Bitcoin's BIP; proposals such as economic models are submitted as Pull Requests. So the "suggestion" route is open.
But note: RFC is an entry point for discussion and proposals, not decision-making power. Changes to consensus or issuance rules ultimately depend on miners and nodes upgrading in practice to take effect; submitting a PR does not automatically implement it.
3. Where the real threshold lies
1. Forking is technically feasible but will split the network. Ethereum is a precedent: after The DAO incident, the community debated whether to hard fork; on July 20, 2016, a hard fork was executed, resulting in two independent blockchains, Ethereum and Ethereum Classic. The new chain rolled back transactions and refunded about 3.6 million ETH stolen, while the attacker’s funds on the Classic chain were preserved. The cost of forking is liquidity and consensus being divided.
2. There is precedent showing "takeover" often gets stuck in non-technical aspects. EOS is typical: ENF once requested Block.one to transfer EOSIO protocol intellectual property rights, but the other party only promised to allocate 30 million EOS, which the community did not accept; in December 2021, block producers voted to stop regular payments to B1. ENF stated that the IP issue of B1 remains unresolved, its GitHub repository has not been updated for eight months, and the Mandel hard fork aims to return "operational control" to the community.
3. More common is the risk of "reverse takeover." The Steem case is noteworthy: in 2020, Justin Sun acquired Steemit Inc. and obtained a large number of tokens, potentially exerting extraordinary influence on governance; the community temporarily froze these tokens via a soft fork, but Sun leveraged relationships with major exchanges to effectively gain control. The community then created Hive through a hard fork, a new network excluding Sun’s token allocation.
4. Back to your question
So a more accurate statement is: anyone can fork a copy of the CKB code to continue development, but "taking over the CKB mainnet" requires actual cooperation from miners’ computing power, node operators, and ecosystem projects; it cannot be done by code alone. Moreover, in reality, a chain with relatively low market value and ecosystem activity has few people willing to invest in long-term maintenance—that is a more practical issue than "who has the rights."
The above is compiled from public information and does not constitute investment advice.
Do you want me to add CKB’s buyback/burn mechanism into the comparison table? $ZEC On the second day of the 2026.10.2 holiday, the market continued to maintain intense volatility. That night, the market plundered $195 million, with 67,378 people going bankrupt and wiped out; liquidity was visibly scarce, with both amount and number declining. In the first few days of a typical holiday, the market tortures you back and forth, and just when you are ready to enjoy your vacation, the market will launch a wave of activity to steal liquidity; therefore, position size must be well controlled, or else a single slip-up can still lead to being hit by competition. Only keep one position open for XAU/XAG, never open two simultaneously. XAU gave a position to reduce T at 4200; as of today's early session, three attempts hit the 4190 level, just 10 dollars short, with narrow fluctuations, sharp rises and falls, and obvious shakeouts. Strictly control position size and execute add/reduce operations; never allow positions to enlarge when breaking support or resistance. BTC support/resistance levels are 87550/85150/78425/75475. Currently, it is in the large range between 85150-78425, with short-term 1h/2h/4h balance between bulls and bears. At midnight, it tested the 85150 level again; bulls are still slightly stronger at this moment. ETH support/resistance levels are 2750//2525/2400, with the same idea as BTC! MU last night had a small spike at 1024 then reached a high of 1096, creating a 7% range, which is also normal indicator volatility. Operation suggestions do not constitute any investment basis: currently, the market's three major versions—crypto, gold, and US stocks—are all in volatility, having fully entered a low liquidity wait-and-see phase. Tonight's major non-farm payrolls should provide a boost to the market, helping to break this stalemate. Stay patient and control your position size.It's Friday, and today is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, so the market will experience significant volatility. However, since I have to go out to improve my life today, I might not be able to start the live broadcast exactly at the time the Nonfarm data is released tonight. So, I'll give everyone a preview of the expected Nonfarm data tonight in advance, so you won't be like a headless chicken after the release.
This Nonfarm report has a considerable impact on the October rate hike, mainly focusing on two things:
1. Unemployment rate: forecast 4.1%, previous 4.1%
First, about the unemployment rate: if it is higher than 4.1%, it indicates the job market is cooling down, reducing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates, which is generally positive for the crypto market.
If it is lower than 4.1%, it means the labor market is tighter, giving the Federal Reserve more reason to remain hawkish, which is generally negative for the crypto market.
2. Nonfarm payroll additions: forecast 90,000, previous 162,000
Regarding nonfarm additions, if the number exceeds the forecast of 90,000, it is negative for crypto because it means employment is stronger than the market expected → the Federal Reserve has more confidence to maintain high interest rates or even continue raising them → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen → BTC/ETH come under pressure.
If it is below 90,000, it means employment is cooling → rate hike expectations decrease → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weaken → BTC/ETH benefit.ZEC is now around 1305. That voice in your head comes again: "It dropped from 1698 to 1305, a 23% decline, is it time to buy the dip?"
First, answer these four questions:
1. When will ETF fund flows return to net inflows? On September 28, there was an outflow of 8.12 million; on September 29, zero inflow; on September 30, an outflow of 30.24 million. If ETFs continue to see outflows, who will absorb the selling pressure from the whales?
2. Has the whale who placed an order for 15,000 coins on September 28 and the whale who sold 25,000 coins on September 29 finished unloading their positions? People who made 230% in two months and those who earned 27 million USD in two months have no reason to stop at 1300.
3. Has the shadow of the "infinite money printing" loophole been resolved? The supply of the Orchard privacy pool remains unaudited to this day. The ZEC you bought might be real or might be "copied." This uncertainty will not disappear just because the price rises.
4. Where is your stop loss? Analysts at Gate Square judge that 1350-1300 is the lifeline; if it breaks below 1350, the consolidation period will be indefinitely extended. If it breaks down, 1300 must also be abandoned; you cannot hold on stubbornly. The 200-period EMA of ZEC is at 1254 USD. From 1305 to 1254 is a 4% drop. Can you withstand it? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #比特币ETF连续9日流入Bitcoin consolidates while CORE plunges, official negative news weighs heavily
CORE dives against the trend, currently at 0.02202 (-0.90%), hitting a low of 0.02163. On the 15-minute chart, the price has broken below all moving averages from MA5 to MA20, KDJ (38.56/43.23) diverges downward, with clear signs of B-point absorption, but the rebound strength is very weak.
Official negative news bursts concentrated:
1️⃣ Korean exchange extends risk control: Bithumb has extended the trading warning for CORE until October 26-30 for reassessment.
2️⃣ 69 million “ghost chips” looming: A vulnerability on August 31 caused 69 million CORE tokens to leak out before the hard fork, with no lock-up or burn plan, posing a risk of sudden sell-off.
3️⃣ Tokenomics flaw: Staking BTC rewards go to BTC stakers, CORE only serves as a supporting certificate; the more active the ecosystem, the more issuance increases, continuously diluting holders through inflation.
4️⃣ October unlocking pressure: Rumored that about 401 million CORE tokens will be unlocked on October 15, creating huge selling pressure from free tokens.
Every penny earned in reality is hard-won. For coins with fundamental flaws and continuous official negative news, ordinary people really shouldn’t bet heavily. Hold your spot positions, use light leverage, and wait until the “ghost chips” and exchange risk controls are fully clarified before making moves $BTC $CORE #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 Oracle price accuracy does not guarantee protocol safety in extreme market conditions
DeFi protocols rely on oracles to bring external prices into $ETH, but "correct price" is only the first condition. Update frequency, liquidity sources, outlier handling, and fallback mechanisms all affect whether liquidations happen timely. During market gaps, even if the final price is correct, brief delays can enlarge bad debt.
Overly sensitive prices can trigger liquidations through short-term manipulation, while excessive smoothing may lag behind the real price. Good design requires balancing responsiveness and manipulation resistance, and limiting the influence of any single data source. When users look at lending rates, they should also consider the oracle and liquidation mechanisms.
Governance rights are also worth examining. Who can change data sources, adjust update intervals, and pause price feeds determines who makes the final call during anomalies. No intervention risks allowing errors to persist; unrestricted changes risk abuse. Transparent delays and multi-party authorization are more important.
The goal of oracle security is not to find a price that never errs, but to make errors hard to amplify into systemic losses during anomalies.
No matter how accurate on-chain contract execution is, if the world fed in is delayed by minutes, the outcome can still be completely different.$ZEC: Short on rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 1350-1360 range (previous support turned resistance and short-term moving average resistance zone), then enter short.
· The target is first 1300; if broken effectively, then 1250. Stop loss set above 1375.
Core basis:
1. Extreme imbalance in chip distribution: The whale long-short ratio is as high as 580%, with heavy long positions (283 million U) far exceeding shorts (48 million U). In a downtrend, overcrowded longs are prone to triggering a liquidation cascade, causing an avalanche-like decline.
2. Capital is withdrawing across the board: Large, medium, and small orders in the contract market all show significant net outflows (totaling over 19 million U), indicating that major funds are exiting the contract market, with shorts dominating the market.
3. Technical weakness and breakdown: The current price has dropped more than 6% to 1336, with strong resistance at the short cost line of 1372 above. Long profit-taking could happen anytime, the rebound is weak, making shorting with the trend the best risk-reward.
$ETH $BTC
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 BTC's false breakout of the 85200 parallel top has fallen back, hunting liquidity around 85600. What’s next, up or down?
Yesterday, BTC dropped to around 82900, where it lingered to form a bottom. Then suddenly in the evening, it surged to near 85600, completing the liquidity hunt at the 85200 parallel top. From the order book, we can see that many bulls chased longs during this surge, but now the price has fallen back, trapping many of those long positions. This could be a false breakout of the 85200 parallel top, having hunted liquidity around 85500, and it may fall back again. So we added short positions at 85300, and the result was exactly as I expected—a sudden large bearish candle smashed down, completing the false breakout and fall back from 85200.
First, since BTC has completed the liquidity hunt above and trapped the bulls, the chance of going up again in the short term is low. Because there is no liquidity above and the bulls are trapped, it’s unlikely to immediately help others get out of their positions. So, most likely, it will go down. This was my previous direction. The first step is to break below the low of 82500 and head to the support at 82200. If it breaks below 82200 and does not recover, then BTC will enter the consolidation range between 75000 and 82200. Once in this consolidation range, the real downtrend will just be beginning. Breaking below 82200 is only the start; next, it could go to the 80000-81000 area, and even breaking below 80000 would be reasonable. $BTC "Three coins have reached the critical threshold, will they push the door open or hit a wall?"
BTC, ETH, and SOL have all reached key integer levels simultaneously, but they are all stuck at the doorstep without truly crossing in. This is not a breakout, but a test.
BTC stands at 84,000, current price 84,026, slightly down in 24 hours. Only with steady volume can there be room for 85,000-86,000; if it falls back below, this breakout is invalid and consolidation continues.
ETH has returned to 2,700, current price 2,703, down 1.18% in 24 hours. It is the core of this round; its weak trend directly determines the rotation strength of altcoins and second-tier funds.
SOL has returned to 120, current price 120.05. Only with steady volume above this level can we look at 122-125; falling back to 118 means a false breakout and a return to weakness.
Now is not the time to chase highs, just to verify. A true start requires three things: holding the threshold, volume support, and BTC leading the entire market resonance. Missing any one could be a bull trap.
As long as key support is not broken, sentiment can talk about warming up, and a new market trend can open up. The current resistance on the chart remains at the 85000 level. This round of rebound is a corrective move after the decline; the bulls are not strong enough, making it difficult to firmly break through in one go. Once the price rebounds close to the 85000 range, it presents a good short-selling opportunity.
Without a breakout, you can operate within the 832-850 range during the day. Be cautious of the non-farm payrolls at night, as the market may jump up and down. Those who are not confident can choose to wait and watch. Ethereum $ETH: Around $2,700, $2,800 is a tough barrier
Ethereum is currently quoted at about $2,713, with a daily increase of about 1.87%, but overall it is still fluctuating repeatedly within the range of $2,600 to $2,800.
Citigroup simultaneously raised Ethereum's 12-month target price from $2,240 to $3,028, a 35% increase, consistent with Bitcoin's adjustment logic. Currently, about 35% of ETH is staked, reducing the circulating supply in the market, but ETF fund flows are unstable — in the last week of September, there were three consecutive days of net inflows, followed by a net outflow of $59.6 million on September 30.
$2,800 has been the resistance level repeatedly suppressing ETH over the past week. If it can break through $2,747 and hold steady within the next 48 to 72 hours, it is expected to open the way to $3,000; if it falls below $2,670, it may retest the $2,600 support.
$BTC $CT #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 #伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 Gold has broken through the $4200 area and is currently trading around $4145. The key support zone is between $4140 and $4125, with $4120 being the critical deep sweep level to watch.
Either it hits $4120 in advance and reverses, or it first sweeps the $4120 level and then sees a larger rebound. On the upside, $4195–$4200 is the first major resistance, followed by $4225–$4235.
$BTC update: It is currently in a key breakout zone, consolidating below the critical 2H bearish order block at $85,300–$86,000. Regaining and holding above $86,000 will turn bullish and open the path to $100,000. Key support levels are at $82,886, $80,300, and $76,400.
The entire $100,000 scenario boils down to one point: Bitcoin must regain and hold above $86,000. Do not chase the initial breakout here; wait first for confirmation and acceptance above this area. $XAU #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 Selling more than 25,000 $BTC in one day, what does that mean?
This happened on September 22, the highest single-day amount this year.
Newcomers might think, when the price rises, some people sell, isn't that normal?
It is normal, but it depends on who is selling.
Short-term players currently have unrealized gains of 33%, the highest since December last year.
In other words, this group holding the coins has made quite a profit.
Let's look at two more numbers.
In the past 30 days, spot demand has decreased by 170,000 coins.
It's even more obvious on the futures side: on September 14, there was an increase of 164,000 coins, but by the 29th, only 16,000 remained.
The money hasn't fled; it's just not rushing in anymore.
Before, people were scrambling to buy; now they are watching and selling.
This shift is more worth watching than the price itself.
I just went through a round myself, so here’s something real.
The easiest thing to do at times like this is to think nothing is wrong just because the price hasn’t dropped.
In fact, cooling demand usually shows up first in trading volume, not price.
Later, I will watch one thing: whether new money is still coming in.
If it is, this is just a pause.
If not, then those 25,700 coins sold are just the beginning.
Are you planning to hold your positions or take profits now?
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 $BTC Polymarket odds now at 62% that Anthropic IPOs by Nov 30, 2026.
Bloomberg dropped today citing anon sources saying IPO could happen before Thanksgiving.
AI infrastructure plays heating up. If Anthropic lists, watch $NVDA $MSFT exposure and any token plays in the AI agent narrative.
This is the type of TradFi event that ripples into crypto AI tokens. Position accordingly.#$NVDA $MSFT #OKXOrbitTopics Around 10 o'clock, the perpetual contract opened — $BTC contract is about 84870, with a slightly negative rate of about -0.0009%, and the nominal position still holds 2.45 billion. Compared to Shanghai's opening at zero hour at 84168, it is still up a bit, with the daily high touching 85266 and the daily low at 83169.
The rate hasn't pulled positive, and OI hasn't clearly exited; short-term focus is on whether it can continue to consolidate around 85,000; if it falls back to around 83,100, don't chase aggressively. $ETH is hovering around 2701, the rhythm is not yet aligned.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #ContractMarket #FundingRate #MorningSession #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice, the market has risks, please be cautious when entering. Why is it more likely that $BTC's movement starting from 87395 is a correction rather than a new decline? Understanding this question is very important for us to make good subsequent BTC trades:
As shown in Figure 1, after BTC broke through the blue Gann angle line 2/1 in 2018, it then underwent a correction against the rise from 3156 to 13970. After the correction ended, BTC entered the most explosive trend rally of the 2020-2021 bull market;
Looking at Figure 2, in 2023 BTC again broke through 2/1 and then similarly began a correction against the rise from 15476 to 31804. The correction ended at 24901, after which BTC rose all the way to 73777;
By September 21, 2026, BTC broke through 2/1 for the third time. After the breakout, the market again entered a correction phase.
If this time still follows the structure of the previous two rounds, what will happen after the correction ends?
History does not simply repeat itself, but the structure of each BTC bull and bear cycle is always surprisingly similar.
Observant friends will notice that after BTC broke through 2/1 in 2018, the correction lasted 261 days with a maximum decline of 72.93%. In the second round, this time shortened to 60 days with a maximum decline of 21.71%. Why is the correction time getting shorter and the decline smaller?
$BTC $ETH $ETH
Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade gets its first public testnet on October 6.
Not mainnet. Not yet.
But this is the stage where bugs get found
before real money is on the line.
The quiet technical dates matter more than the loud price ones. $ETH: Buy on dip
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to dip to the 2688-2695 range (near the Bollinger middle band) and stabilize before entering long.
· Target first at 2721 (Bollinger upper band); if broken effectively, hold until the previous high at 2806. Set stop loss below 2655 (Bollinger lower band).
Core basis:
1. Whale positions heavily bullish: Chart 1 shows ETH whale nominal long-short ratio as high as 295%, with longs averaging cost at 2597 and nearly 80% unrealized profit, while shorts cost 2632 and are deeply in loss, making a short squeeze highly likely.
2. Market-wide shorts crowded: Chart 3 shows total market whale short nominal value (3.99B) exceeds longs (3.16B), indicating strong bearish sentiment overall; any upward price move can easily trigger a comprehensive short squeeze rally.
3. Strong technical support: On the 4-hour chart, price has been making higher lows since bottoming at 2400, currently attempting to hold above 2700. There is significant selling pressure at 2721, making a direct breakout unlikely; a pullback to the middle band for consolidation is needed.
$BTC $CT
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $TRUMP TRUMP I am personally bullish in the short term, current price 2.041.
Political MEME leader, surged then pulled back to test support, waiting for event catalysts.
Key points: November Washington VIP dinner narrative, approaching lock-up date, subsequent public opinion heat will gradually rise; significant retracement from historical highs, long-term bearish bubble fully cleared.
Key levels:
Support 1.93–2.00, holding this maintains bullish expectations;
Short-term resistance 2.14, volume breakout targets 2.30~2.5.
Currently shrinking volume pullback for consolidation, downward momentum slowing, speculating on event-driven rebound.
⚠️MEME coin sentiment dominates, volatility fierce, high risk of holdings, trade lightly, always set stop-loss, keep leverage as low as possible. 🔥 Noteworthy new information 1. Robinhood Chain is becoming a major catalyst Robinhood Chain went mainnet on 7/1/2026 and is built on Arbitrum technology. According to the AEP agreement, 10% of the chain's net revenue returns to the Arbitrum ecosystem: 8% to the DAO and 2% to the Developer Guild. More notably, in July, licensing fees from the Expansion Program accounted for 35% of ArbitrumDAO's income. 2. Arbitrum still has very high network activity Arbitrum's H1/2026 report states: * 478 million transactions trWaiting for results requires certain conditions, but opening a position can cause you to lose those conditions. For example, if you go long on cap and want to wait for it to rise, but because you opened other positions, or even wrong positions, you are forced to close early and cannot achieve your expected goal.The futures market cleared $164 million in 24 hours, with longs liquidated for $107 million and shorts only $57.4 million. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $150 million and $13.89 million yesterday, but the weekly chart still shows net inflows. U.S. factory costs are rising, and the Federal Reserve has again released a stablecoin regulatory framework. The macro environment remains tight.
Just made a bowl of noodles, staring at the screen waiting for them to cook.
Lobster is currently priced at 0.06655. The moving averages have formed a bearish death cross and are diverging downward, volume continues to diverge, and the oversold rebound lacks strength. Between 0.060 and 0.065, there is a large cluster of long liquidation chips; the main force is very likely to push down further to induce short positions. The 0.06655 level is extremely sensitive, so don’t rush to short.
A rebound to 0.070–0.072 is the best entry zone for shorts. Place stop loss above 0.0745. The first take profit target is 0.064, the second target is 0.060. Near 0.060, if liquidation volume is fully released, consider going long again.
Focus mainly on shorting at highs, and maintain strict risk management. Don’t hold losing positions.
$Lobster
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
@OKX星球 The "$UNI" "fee switch" that has been waited for a full five years is finally about to be turned on — it is transforming from a "governance air coin" that only votes into a cash flow asset truly backed by protocol revenue.
The situation is solid: Uniswap founder Hayden Adams personally stepped in and submitted the protocol's first-ever governance proposal, "UNIfication." The core consists of two things. First, to levy protocol fees: v2 takes 0.05% per transaction, and v3 takes between one-quarter to one-sixth of the LP fees according to the fee tier. This money will no longer be idle; all of it will be used to buy back and burn UNI. Second, directly burn 100 million tokens retroactively from the treasury, accounting for one-tenth of the total supply. Even the sequencer revenue from their own L2 Unichain, after deducting costs, will be fully used for burning.
This is not just empty talk. CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju has done the math: just v2 and v3 combined have a transaction volume of $1 trillion this year. As long as the volume holds, the annualized burn scale is about $500 million. For a coin with a market cap of $5.6 billion, this is a real deflationary effect. Once the news broke, UNI surged directly to $10, hitting a two-month high.
But as you can see, the price has now fallen back to around $9, even slightly down in the past week — short-term profit-taking after the positive news, plus the 22-day voting process still needs to be completed, and the PCE macro turning hawkish is causing disturbances.
My view: In the short term, $9 will see repeated consolidation, $8.45 is a key support, and only by firmly reclaiming $10 can the space be considered open; but the mid-term logic has already completely changed $AAVE AAVE is outperforming the other top coins. It’s been a long time since AAVE has stood out like this. The next major resistance I see is at $207. Let’s send AAVE there! Long setup.
Entry: $170 - $175
TP: $200 - $230 - $260 - $300
SL: $159 #首只NEAR现货ETF在美国上市 The first NEAR spot ETF was listed on NYSE Arca, with a net inflow of about $35.5 million on the first day and a size of only $36 million, which is almost negligible compared to the scale of BTC/ETH ETFs. Its highlight is that staking yields are included in the net asset value, providing traditional investors with a compliant yield-bearing exposure, representing a structural benefit for the NEAR ecosystem. But as the commentary points out, this is NEAR's own matter; don't assume that the "US spot ETF" means that the big cake will also share red envelopes.
For spot players, the current macro theme remains the high long-term US Treasury yields and the nonfarm payrolls game. Small coin ETFs cannot reverse the overall liquidity tightening and may even divert existing funds from the altcoin market. These products are more suitable as a window to observe capital preferences rather than a basis for chasing gains. Continue to defend in operations, wait for the nonfarm payrolls release, and don't let marginal positive news mislead your rhythm. $NOM The biggest concern is not the price fluctuation itself, but that after the price moves for a while, participation does not keep up.
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.22 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour showing strength. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
The current price is 0.002745, about 16.07% away from the 1-hour support at 0.002304, and about 18.98% away from resistance at 0.003266. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.003266 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 0.002304, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.00198. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.003266 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
Is this volume contraction movement a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$BTC: Buy on pullback
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back to the 83,800-84,000 range (near the Bollinger middle band) and stabilize before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 84,856; if this level is effectively broken, hold until the previous high at 85,236; set stop loss below 83,500.
Core basis:
1. Moving average support and pattern: On the 4-hour chart, the price remains steadily above the Bollinger middle band, with lows gradually rising from 74,896 to 83,123, indicating a solid bottom structure and an intact short-term bullish pattern.
2. Short squeeze expectation from chip distribution: The whale nominal long-short ratio is as high as 424%, with the average long cost at 81,809 and unrealized profit at 72%; short positions cost 80,805 and are deeply in loss, making them prone to forced liquidation, which can drive the price up.
3. Funding and technical resistance: The funding rate is positive (0.0013%), and net buying in the last 30 minutes exceeds net selling. There is selling pressure at 84,856, making a direct breakout less likely; a pullback to accumulate strength before another upward attack is more stable.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 For spot market players, Anthropic's IPO is a liquidity stress test that requires caution.
The core impact lies in capital diversion. This IPO is expected to raise a huge amount of funds, and the market fears it will siphon off a large amount of capital from risk assets, including the crypto market, similar to when SpaceX went public. Some analyses point out that if the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic occur consecutively, they could collectively withdraw over $240 billion from the market, which would pose a severe challenge to BTC spot buying pressure.
Operationally, it is recommended to maintain a defensive stance. If holding spot assets, consider moderately reducing positions to lock in some profits when the IPO approaches and market sentiment is high, leaving sufficient cash on hand. Key dates to watch are the investor day on October 14 and the roadshow launch week of November 9, paying close attention to actual changes in market liquidity. In an environment where macro liquidity is already tight, such mega IPOs could be the last straw that breaks the camel's back; surviving is more important than chasing short-term gains.The most frustrating thing about $ZEC is not the sharp drop.
It's that even after falling this much, many people are still waiting for it to rebound.
Why?
Because it has dropped from 1697 all the way down to around 1360, a decline of over 300 points.
The first reaction people often have is:
"It has fallen so much already, it should rebound, right?"
But the most common mistake in trading is equating "a big drop" directly with "hitting the bottom."
Right now, I'm actually observing several other signals:
Is the rebound strong?
Are the highs being raised?
Has the moving average resistance been lifted?
Is the trading volume cooperating?
If none of these conditions appear, then the so-called "bottom" can only be considered a hypothesis at this point.
My short position around 1405 still has floating profit, so I haven't changed my view just because of a few small bullish candles.
It's not because I think $ZEC will definitely fall.
It's because, so far, the market hasn't given a clear enough reversal signal.
These two things are completely different.
If later it retakes the key resistance level with volume breakout and the structure changes, I will reassess accordingly.
But if the 1360 level is lost again...
Will 1300 become the next market focus?
Now the really interesting question is:
Will the "oversold rebound" come first,
or will the "continued breakdown" arrive first?
Don't rush to guess the answer.
Let the candlesticks speak for themselves.
$ZEC $ETH $SOL $BTC
#ZEC #BTC Looking at the account balance, I was silent for a long time. I entered contracts in June, from initially exploring to learning how to go long and short. Each time I practiced with 1000, repeatedly doing c2c. Every time I got liquidated, I would review and learn, but I never lasted long before getting liquidated again. It was either because I couldn't hold the position or because I was too emotional. Even though I knew I could slowly trade with small positions and knew the direction, I still wanted to reverse the position. Closing positions again and again, losing again and again, the account losses kept halving until it reached zero. Then I understood that failing to control greed and wishful thinking means you will never profit. Temporary profits are just luck, coinciding with the market. I have no trading talent, but the cost of trial and error is too high. Ten thousand might be just a drop in the bucket for you, but for me, it's almost three months' salary without eating or drinking. Always hoping to get rich overnight in crypto, waking up is just a fool's dream. It's over. Maybe I'll come back, maybe not. The ten thousand wasn't just a lesson, it was a recognition of myself. People can never earn money beyond their level of understanding; even if they do, it will quickly be lost again. So ordinary people should just work hard. Getting rich overnight? That's not fate. $ZEC Finally, one last thing, $ZEC you son of a b****, go back to 10 bucks! When you go long, you crash the price; when you go short, you pump it. From 800 to 1600 you took half a month; from 1600 to 1300 you took 10 days. If I had big funds, I would definitely short you to zero! Let's see in 3 months!I just want to ask one question now:
$ZEC has fallen this far, do you still dare to bottom-fish here?
Many people are reluctant to short, and the reason is actually very simple:
"It has already dropped so much, how much lower can it go?"
Sounds reasonable.
But the most dangerous part of trading is precisely——
"A big drop" never means "the bottom has been reached."
$ZEC has fallen from around 1697 to around 1360, with the price center of gravity continuously moving down.
What really deserves attention is not how much it has dropped, but:
The rebounds are getting weaker
The highs keep moving lower
Moving averages continue to suppress
Every rally is quickly pushed back by selling pressure
Many people see "no more drop" and their first reaction is:
The bottom has arrived, get ready to rebound.
But I prefer to wait for confirmation.
If it’s just low-volume sideways trading without a clear reversal pattern appearing, then is this a bottom formation or a continuation of the downtrend?
This is the key point to watch for $ZEC right now.
My own short position near 1405 already has some floating profit, so I’m not in a hurry to change my plan because of one or two rebound candles.
If the trend reversal is not confirmed, I won’t prematurely imagine a reversal out of fear.
Of course, there is no such thing as "must fall" in trading.
If later it recovers key resistance levels, volume significantly increases, and the structure changes, I will re-evaluate.
Right now, I’m focused on only one question:
Can the 1360 level hold?
If it breaks again, where will the market’s attention shift next? Citibank has pulled the target price back to 113,000, but don’t just look at the headline
Citibank recently raised the 12-month target price for Bitcoin from $82,000 to $113,000, and for Ethereum from $2,240 to $3,028.
Most people get excited just by seeing the headline, but I pay more attention to the path behind it: it is expected that there will be about $5 billion in net inflows into the crypto market over the next 12 months, mainly from advisors and brokers gradually increasing allocations; meanwhile, the macro environment remains supportive, with factors such as a weakening dollar and Treasury buybacks of long-term bonds also helping to restore risk asset sentiment.
However, don’t treat the $113,000 target as a certainty. Citibank’s forecast is essentially a model output based on “ETF fund flows + macro,” and in July it cut the target to $82,000 due to ETF outflows, now it has raised it again due to fund inflows. This means the target price will be quickly adjusted with changes in fund flows and should not be simply understood as "steadily rising to 113,000."
In the short term, this looks more like a sentiment recovery signal rather than a reason to blindly chase the rally. The key is still to watch whether ETF net inflows continue and whether BTC can hold the $84,000–85,000 range. Only if funds keep coming in will the price follow; relying on the headline alone won’t hold up for long.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $XAU
Woke up early to find gold has dropped again. I checked the funding fee, and compared to BTC, gold's funding fee seems never to have been positive. A few days ago, it peaked at an annualized rate of over 50%, which for those using leverage means a total loss of ✘100.
The strange thing is, the more gold falls, the higher the funding fee gets. It seems everyone shares a consensus that "gold will rise again," so the more it falls, the more people add to their positions, keeping the funding fee high.
However, during the rate hike cycle, US Treasury yields keep hitting new highs. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold is bound to be under pressure. Most likely, it will continue to decline with fluctuations. Long-term holding is only suitable for spot trading; although contracts allow high leverage, ordinary people cannot bear the funding fees.
Even for short-term trading, the funding fees charged three times a day can equal the transaction fees.
Large players use it to capture funding fees, which is indeed effective. But for those planning to go long for the medium to long term, I sincerely do not recommend opening contracts. Shorting at good entry points can be considered, as the income from funding fees is also considerable.$BTC, $ETH, and $LINK can represent three different perspectives: BTC reflects the overall market trend, ETH reflects the capital in the public chain ecosystem, and LINK reflects the capital in the oracle infrastructure sector. Observing these three coins together provides better insight into whether the underlying infrastructure sector is attracting capital, rather than just focusing on the price fluctuations of a single coin.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键
#比特币ETF连续9日流入，ETH转流出
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解