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$FIL
The positive aspect is long-term incremental growth, suitable for AI Agent memory and RWA document archiving.
But the boundaries must also be clear: it mainly focuses on cold archive storage, with orders releasing slowly, not a short-term explosive market.What exactly is everyone panicking about regarding the September nonfarm payrolls to be released tonight?
The market expects new jobs to be between 85,000 and 90,000, a significant slowdown compared to last month, with the unemployment rate steady around 4.1%.
The real trap is the revision of previous data.
The surface numbers look good but are useless; recently, the Fed has often been misled—data initially looks good but is sharply revised downward the following month. If this new job number meets expectations but last month's high data is significantly revised down, the market will still trade as if employment is deteriorating.
Bad news is no longer good news.
Previously, poor employment meant people expected rate cuts and happily pushed prices up. But if this time new jobs fall below 50,000 or even turn negative, capital won’t celebrate rate cuts but will panic sell, directly trading a recession.
Wage growth is even more critical than new job numbers.
If new jobs are average but hours worked and hourly wage growth exceed expectations, inflation concerns won’t dissipate, giving the Fed more reason to maintain high interest rates.
If new jobs remain steady in the moderate range of 80,000 to 120,000, the market will continue to follow the rate cut soft-landing logic, which is positive for BTC and US stocks. Once data swings to extremes—either a sharp rise or fall—it will trigger intense short-term shakeouts.
At 8:30 tonight, it’s recommended to watch the show first and wait for the initial wave of volatility to settle before making moves.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
$BTC 10.2 zec Public Silk Road
$ZEC Long position operation
Entry range: Buy on dip near 1330 low
Stop loss defense: 1300
Position scaling
First scale: Around 1380 (current position, near moving average)
Second scale: Around 1400
Third scale: Pressure zone above 1420-1440
Reference factors: Price is close to the upper Bollinger Band, where obvious resistance is expected; the golden cross below the zero axis is considered a rebound, not a strong bullish reversal, suitable for waiting on the right side for dip confirmation, not for chasing longs at high levels. But if following last night’s Silk Road long entry, you can wait for 1420.
Plan B
After breaking below 1300, operate short positions, just short at high levels, manage detailed points yourself. Yesterday set a stop at 1320 which was triggered, but bought near 1310, now with 80 points profit, don’t hold shorts too long.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Veteran crypto trader deleverages late at night, waiting for the Nonfarm Payrolls! All BTC short positions are closed, leaving only ETH fishing solo, taking an extremely sober defensive stance before the storm.
BTC and ETH steadily rise with a healthy trend, but tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls are the real test. The biggest constraint in the current market is not ETFs, but the high interest rate environment—elevated yields keep risk asset valuations under pressure. I've fully closed my BTC shorts, leaving only one ETH position hanging. The logic is straightforward: if Nonfarm is weak, the pause on rate hikes bets heat up (bullish); if strong, the shadow of more hikes this year looms (bearish). Fortunately, the PCE leading data supports a slightly bullish bias tonight, but I won't act blindly before the news is confirmed.
The closer to the big event, the more cautious I get—betting on certainty, not direction. Large positions are not reckless gambles but strategic retreats before the news drops.Since 2013, Bitcoin's October performance has risen 10 times out of 13. The average return is 18.52%, with a median of 12.73%. In October 2021, it rose 42.92%. In October 2013, it doubled directly by 60%.
In the crypto community, this has a special name: Uptober.
Every year around this time, the whole network starts hyping it. KOLs begin shouting "October must rise," the community starts painting big pictures, and you start wondering "maybe I should go all in."
But today I want to talk about: why Uptober will fail in 2025, and what exactly is being bet on this October.
🧊 First, let's pour some cold water: October 2025.
A textbook Uptober start. Bitcoin surged to a historic high of $126,080 at the beginning of October, and the record of 7 consecutive years of October gains seemed rock solid.
Then Trump threw out a 100% tariff threat on China.
On October 10, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in one day. The largest liquidation day in crypto history.
By the end of the month, Bitcoin closed down about 4%. Uptober turned into Rektober.
Seven years of consecutive gains ended overnight.
Patterns are always meant to be broken.
💊 September this year was indeed impressive.
Bitcoin closed September up 6.33%-7.33%, marking the best September performance since 2013. Ethereum rose 8.77% in September, also the second-best September on record.
Historically, September is Bitcoin's worst month—with an average return of -2.34%. Four consecutive Septembers of gains is the longest streak in existing data.
Bitcoin's cumulative Q3 gains approached 40%, poised to be the strongest Q3 since 2017.
Strong September, even stronger October? Historical patterns say: yes.
But the market never runs solely on historical patterns.
🎯 This October, there are three cards on the table.
Bullish cards:
September +6.33%, the second-best September historically, laying momentum for October
Citibank raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000, citing increased ETF inflows and improved macro environment
30-year US Treasury yield fell back from a 5.6% peak, improving short-term risk appetite
Multiple Fed officials hinted no rate hike in October; the probability of an October hike dropped from 70% to about 25%
Bearish cards:
Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4% on September 16, the first hike in 2023, passed unanimously
Although October hike probability cooled, another hike this year is still possible
ETF funds turned to a net outflow of $148.7 million on September 30, breaking a 9-day net inflow streak
10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.289% at the end of September, 30-year at 5.632%, both hitting 52-week highs
Wildcard card:
A liquidation map shows Bitcoin's 30-day leveraged long exposure at $4.35 billion, concentrated around $74,170
If price breaks key support, these positions could trigger a chain liquidation, causing a cascade
The lesson from October 10 last year’s $19 billion liquidation is still fresh
🤔 So the core question isn't "will it rise or not."
The core question is: between seasonal momentum and macro pressure, which is stronger this year?
Bullish logic: September delivered historic-level performance, ETF Q3 net inflows about $6.34 billion, Citibank raised target price, October hike probability cooled to 25%.
Bearish logic: Fed has already started hiking, unanimously approved. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%, no-yield assets naturally suffer. ETF fund flows turned negative at month-end. $4.35 billion leveraged longs hanging overhead.
Both sides have true arguments. This is what makes the market so torturous.
💡 My own judgment in one sentence:
Seasonality can support the trend but cannot offset macro shocks.
September's gains were due to "bad news priced in" after Fed hikes plus concentrated ETF inflows. But in October, this logic faces two hurdles:
First hurdle: October 2 Nonfarm Payroll data. Too strong → rate hike expectations return → Bitcoin under pressure. Too weak → recession fears → risk assets still pressured.
Second hurdle: October 14 CPI data. This is the last key inflation data before the Fed's late-October meeting. If inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations will be repriced.
Passing both hurdles means the late-October meeting might give the market a breather.
Failing means forget Uptober, Rektober awaits you.
/ To be honest.
Uptober is a statistical fact, not a destiny guarantee.
10 rises out of 13 times, a 77% probability. Sounds high. But in a casino game with a 77% win rate, you still have a 23% chance to lose.
And the 2025 lesson is clear—when macro storms hit, seasonality is just a paper tiger.
$19 billion liquidations won't not happen just because "October historically averages an 18% rise."
The market won't go easy on you just because you believe in patterns.
/ Final sentence
This October, it's not about "will it rise or not."
It's about "can it withstand rate hike pressure."
Seasonality gives you probability. Macro gives you reality.
Don't mistake probability for a promise.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 Previously, $ETH broke through the 2700 mark from 2530, forcing shorts to stop loss and liquidate, buying to close shorts and further pushing the price up to 2806.88, then falling back to 2634.35 and starting to oscillate. After 9 days of thick consolidation, with the non-farm payroll data today, it has currently stabilized above 2700 within 6 hours. Can the bears win tonight?
I also added a small position, averaging up from 2672.34 to 2685.11, and reduced leverage from 10x to 8x. $BTC is still a bit away from risk control; even if I'm wrong and it stabilizes at 2850, it won't hurt me much. Currently, $ZEC has an unrealized profit and loss of 200,000 USD, continuing to hold and waiting for the non-farm payroll data at 20:30 today.Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MEGA Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.67, position ratio 0.87; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls expanded by 1.36 percentage points. More bullish accounts, no dominant long position size advantage yet.
$PEPE Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.08, position ratio 0.8; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls narrowed by 1.22 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still bearish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators.
$SOL Top accounts are more bullish, position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio 1.07, position ratio 0.96; the difference in the proportion of the two types of bulls narrowed by 1.49 percentage points. Divergence is easing, position size still bearish; this convergence has not yet aligned the two indicators.A few days ago, the bearish sentiment was stronger. After observing these past few days, Bitcoin refuses to pull back, as if it's nurturing the bulls.
The spot market is spiking upwards, but the futures are not, which is a bit strange.
Logically, the futures should spike upwards to clear the shorts, then start a pullback decline.
But that's not happening now, so my guess is: the spot market is sweeping the sell orders upwards, opening the channel for a subsequent rapid rally.
Everyone has already rehearsed buying if Bitcoin falls, given the current situation.
Will the market trend align with everyone's expectations?
So, we need to rehearse what to do if it goes up.
If Bitcoin breaks through 87,000 again at this time, should we chase? What if it breaks 92,000 and heads straight to 95,000 or 102,000?
If Bitcoin refuses to pull back and tries 87,000 upwards again, it will most likely break through, but the premise is to hold above 85,000, which is currently at 85,100.
If it breaks through and holds, then it will head towards the 83,000–85,000 range to open short liquidation positions, corresponding to liquidation points for 100x, 50x, 20x, 10x, and 5x leverage.
Reference points can be: 87,500; 89,700; 92,000; 99,700; 102,000.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC The $85K sell wall has been absorbed, with price reaching an intraday high of $85,266. But holiday liquidity is thin, so this breakout still needs confirmation. On the 1H chart,$BTC reclaimed $84,167 and short-term moving averages are turning higher. The key now is whether spot buying can continue. Watch $85,266–$85,650. If volume rises but price fails to push higher, a liquidity pullback could follow. For bulls, $84K–$84.2K is the first support zone. Losing it could open a move toward $83$ETH
Watched the market all day,
finally got in at 2704.
Honestly, this surge is a bit wild,
a big bullish candle pushed straight to the upper Bollinger Band.
Now holding a long position at 2704,
looking at the previous high at 2747, feeling both excited and nervous.
Excited because there's profit as a cushion,
nervous because a sudden spike from a manipulator could happen anytime.
Not overthinking it, just set a stop loss at 2715 to lock in the downside.
In the first half, see if 2747 can be broken,
if not, reduce position; if yes, hold and watch for 2780.
Trading contracts is all about surviving longer.
To those brothers who are jealous and want to chase longs now,
a word of advice: control your hands, wait for it to drop to give you a chance to get in.#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
The initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 197,000, below the expected 200,000, staying under 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, while continuing claims fell to 1.7 million, the lowest since March 2023. The labor market is as tough as a rock.
Once this data came out, the market was stunned. Originally, it was hoped that cooling employment would give the Federal Reserve a reason to cut rates, but companies verbally express pressure, yet are reluctant to lay off employees. Rate cut expectations have been dampened again.
For the crypto world, the logic is straightforward: strong employment → consumption and wages hold up → inflation pressure could rebound at any time → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates easily. Goldman Sachs has long "surrendered," abandoning rate cut predictions for this year and even doubling the probability of a rate hike to 20%. If rate hike expectations combine with soaring US Treasury yields, tightening liquidity will hit high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum first.
Currently, BTC is struggling around $84,000, ETH is under pressure below $2,700, and after continuous ETF inflows, there was a net outflow of $149 million in a single day. The crypto market doesn't want to go independent; the macro faucet hasn't been turned on yet. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for the day the Federal Reserve truly loosens.ATOM ecosystem governance attack combined with chain shutdown, down 3.8% in 24 hours, NEAR profit-taking sell-off dropped 4.5%, overgains are the original sin. XRP relies on Evernote Nasdaq merger vote passing, the listing treasury expectation supports it, moving stronger against the trend. The overall market rose 1.22%, funds are picking targets, not a broad rally.
Just opened the guard booth window for some fresh air, the cup of tea on the desk has been cold for a long time without drinking.
SCR technicals are very strong with a bullish alignment, volume explosion directly breaks through the consolidation range. The liquidation map is even clearer, short liquidity is densely stacked in the 0.0355 to 0.0385 range, this is a magnet, the price has a very strong upward attraction. The current 0.0348 is a bullish continuation, not the end.
The short squeeze rally has started, go long with the trend. Entry zone 0.0345 to 0.0350, first take-profit target 0.038, second target 0.040. Defense point at 0.0330, exit if broken, no holding through losses. Control position size well, stop loss is discipline, not advice.
The declines of ATOM and NEAR have nothing to do with SCR, don’t mix them up. SCR is playing the short liquidation game; until the upper liquidity is fully consumed, the trend won’t easily stop. Watch the 0.0355 level, a volume-supported hold is a signal to accelerate.
Just take one more look at the market before off work.
$SCR
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
@OKX星球 #BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously flowing out, cooling down capital heat
Ethereum quietly rose 70% this quarter, smart money has already been moving
ETH's Q3 return rate is 70.8%, the strongest quarter since 2016.
On-chain data doesn't lie. In the past week, BTC whales reduced nearly 30,000 coins, while ETH whales actually increased by 60,000 coins. One address started accumulating from early September at an average price of $2,671, hoarding 12,134 ETH, over 30 million USD, directly putting it into Aave to earn interest. This is not something retail investors do.
Last night, the US stock crypto sector collectively rallied, with MSTR and BMNR both rising. Citi raised BTC's target price from 82,000 directly to 113,000, and ETH was also adjusted upward.
BTC just pulled above 84,800, ETH is around 2,710. The fear and greed index is 71, in the greed zone but not extreme.DOGE may be approaching a turning point, with the key in the next two days
The 1-hour chart has formed a fairly standard price triangle consolidation. A similar pattern appeared two weeks ago; after breaking through $0.092 and confirming the trend, it headed straight toward the previous high of $0.11.
Of course, a triangle breakout does not necessarily mean a one-sided market, but following the trend at this position usually has a much higher success rate than chasing highs at the top. Keep a close eye on the market in the next two days; the opportunity might be this week. $DOGEUS September jobs data is the next big macro test.
Markets expect around 84K new jobs, down from 162K in August, with unemployment at 4.1%.
With inflation still elevated but rate-hike bets cooling, a weak jobs print could reinforce expectations for a Fed pause—while a strong number may bring tightening fears back.
Can NFP reshape the Fed outlook—and move BTC
#USJobsDataToday Reviewing my trading experience over the past few years. When I first entered the market, I thought I was a genius, going all in with heavy positions, and ended up losing 200,000U. Later I realized that trading is not about who is braver, but about who survives longer. BTC is currently at 86451.2, resistance at 86888.0, support at 86000. My strategy: a small position of 5000U, lightly going long near support, lightly going short near resistance, never holding losing positions without stop loss. Although recovery is slow, at least I no longer suffer big losses. Remember: the first rule of trading is to survive, the second rule is to remember the first rule. $BTC #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 Something worth watching in Bitcoin:
The nine-day U.S. spot ETF inflow streak has ended.
About $148.7M flowed out on September 30 after roughly $3.1B of inflows over the previous nine sessions.
One day doesn't change the whole picture.
But it reminds us that institutional demand isn't a straight line.$BTC has once again broken through 86000, confirming the bull market once more. Can it reach a new high again?
I have to say, this time the main force has a big vision, pushing the price up without deep pullbacks.
The bullish trend has lasted for nearly two months, and only now am I calling it a bull market, which is a bit late.
However, I’m not that optimistic about this bull market.
After all, there are several big obstacles ahead.
1. Interest rate hike cycle. 2. No incremental funds of MicroStrategy’s scale entering the market. 3. Sharp rise in US Treasury yields. 4. Geopolitical issues.
Moreover, the pricing power now lies not in the news but in the capital flow.
Capital flow is highly subjective; price movements are determined by the will of certain individuals or institutions.
For retail investors like us, this means we no longer have news to help judge market direction, and any indicator can fail due to capital influence, making trading really difficult now.
Short positions are easily stopped out, and profitable long positions are likely to pull back.
Looking back at the liquidations over the past two weeks, although the market is biased bullish, the liquidation volumes for both longs and shorts are roughly equal.
Therefore, for new retail investors entering the market, trading difficulty has increased.
At this time, I’m not contradicting everyone; I still recommend entering with a light position.
The key resistance level of 85500 has already been broken. If it holds, around 87000 will be a new resistance level.
The above is just my personal opinion. $ZEC Latest Capital Flow:
Spot｜24H
🔹 Large orders: +465,000 U
🔹 Medium orders: -464,900 U
🔹 Small orders: +5,970,800 U
Contracts｜24H
🔻 Large orders: -5,445,600 U
🔻 Medium orders: -3,680,900 U
🔻 Small orders: -10,651,100 U
Simply put, spot continues to see inflows, while contract funds keep flowing out, which looks like continuous position reductions on the contract side, with stronger absorption on the spot side.
Could it be that some large funds are shifting to spot accumulation after closing positions on contracts?
ZEC's short-term heat remains, but after consecutive declines, market sentiment has clearly cooled. If the 1300 level is not broken for a long time, pay attention to capital movements after sideways trading.
1300 is a recent key level; short sellers should be cautious of risks. The "mysterious whale" in the crypto circle quietly adjusted its positions late at night, with a total exposure of 162 million hiding a secret, no run away! It’s taking the ultimate defensive route of reducing risk at high levels and retreating defensive lines.
BTC decreased from 552 to 548 coins, continuing a 40X full-position long, with unrealized profit expanding to 153,000 U, and the liquidation price firmly held at 73,800.15, further widening the extreme shakeout buffer zone.
ETH remains unchanged, tightly holding 35,000 coins at 25X full-position long, with unrealized profit of 925,000 U, still the core ballast of the entire long-short warship, with the forced liquidation line fixed at 2,488.40.
SOL slightly reduced to 180,000 coins, unrealized loss narrowed to 421,000 U, not fully cutting losses, leaving enough room for this sentiment token’s oversold rebound.
The closer to key macro data, the less likely to make drastic moves, relying on small incremental adjustments to complete defense. This position adjustment is the last reinforcement before the storm — the bullish base color remains unchanged, only actively unloading some chips and deeply burying the liquidation defense line, allowing the account to withstand the extreme sweep at the moment of data release.
Large positions are not gambles but a step-by-step strategic retreat of the lifeline.$BTC $ETH $SOL Friday 📊
Bounce off the month-end low. Not a new leg.
$BTC $84.5K–$86.5K. Week low $82.8K. High still $87.4K.
$ETH $2,690–$2,740. Floor $2.60K held. The door is $2.77K.
$SOL $117–$122. $117 held. $125 is the local high.
Map
$BTC: $85.2K reclaim → $87.4K → $90K. Fail $82.8K, then $80K.
$ETH: $2.77K close or $2.60K fail.
$SOL: $123 hold → $125. Lose $117 and $110 is next.Before the non-farm payrolls, let's review the macro picture — tonight at 20:30 Shanghai time, the September non-farm payrolls will be released, with consensus around 90,000 and unemployment rate watched at 4.1%. The Fed's odds of a rate hike in October have dropped to just over 20%, with over 70% chance of holding steady; Jefferson and Williams both lean towards "not rushing to move again."
Spot $ETH is around 2740, about 2% up from 2683 at Shanghai midnight, with a daily high touching 2748 and a daily low of 2673. $BTC is hovering near 86,500. Don't max out your positions before the data drops; first see if it can hold above 2740.
$BTC $ETH #ETH #Ethereum #NonFarmPayrolls #Fed #Macro #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, trade cautiously. Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls—don't guess the data, trade based on the price reaction after the data is released.
Focus on four key points:
① Nonfarm Payrolls
Significantly below expectations → cooling employment → rising rate cut expectations → BTC slightly bullish
Significantly above expectations → falling rate cut expectations → BTC slightly bearish
② Unemployment Rate
Rising → dovish bias
Falling → hawkish bias
③ Wages This is a very critical item tonight.
Weak employment + weak wages → BTC slightly strong
Strong employment + strong wages → BTC under pressure
Contradictory employment and wage data → likely to cause sharp volatility
④ US Treasury Yields Key to watch after Nonfarm release:
Nonfarm → US Treasury yields → USD → BTC
My trading logic
Before data release: do not chase trades.
After data release: wait for the first spike to end, then determine direction.
Bullish data ≠ immediately go long
Bearish data ≠ immediately go short
The real confirmation signals are:
Break resistance and retest without breaking → consider long
Break support and fail to rebound → consider short
Price sweeps without forming structure → no trade
In short:
Nonfarm determines volatility, interest rates determine direction, BTC structure determines entry.Those praying for a bigger pullback are just bullish and looking to add more positions opportunistically. Anyway, I don't really expect to see below 78K—that's exactly the support level of the bull market. If you're waiting for some massive panic sell-off (a complete "capitulation"), you might be waiting forever. $BTC $ETH $CT $CT PRINTED 0.07500 TO 0.53000 ON THE DAILY CHART.
Now it sits at 0.49462, up 0.34%, after a 24h range of 0.38580–0.53000.
The daily chart has barely any history, so I won't force a conclusion. Patience beats prediction.
Is this volatility price discovery or exhaustion?
#USJobsDataToday 🎯 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE FACEOFF
$SLX: support (0.06193) | resistance (0.06439)
$KAITO: support (0.3338) | resistance (0.3591)
$SOL: support (116.62) | resistance (123.67)
$KAITO is closest to its 24H resistance. Is it the next breakout, or a rejection setup?
$SLX $KAITO $SOL
#MarketComparison #Crypto
⚠️ NFA — manage risk and DYOR.The load-bearing wall hasn't been poured yet, but the scaffolding has already been built up to the sky. This column is about to burst at any moment!
The current $BCH market looks like a shoddy construction project cutting corners on the site. The upper Bollinger Band has hit the ceiling at 312.2, and the current price is forcibly capped at 313.6. The RSI has surged to 61.1, which is like recklessly stacking bricks before the cement has even setWhy it’s bouncing
September closed green. $BTC +7%, best September in years. Q3 was the real move: BTC +40%+, ETH +70%.
ETF streak broke into month-end. Sep 30: BTC funds −$149M, ETH −$60M, SOL −$11M. Monday inflows cooled ~80% but stayed green on some desks.
Fear & Greed 72. Mcap ~$2.9–3.0T.
$SOL: Open USD live, $1B liquidity committed.
$ETH: MetaMask incident forced staking exits. No funds lost.
Macro: Friday jobs. Yields still heavy.
Jobs print is the catalyst. Closes, not the open.$NEAR This ID's viewpoint:
NEAR started from the 4.545 low on the 30-minute level, rising and then forming a consolidation zone. Recently, a pullback occurred, and it is now in the phase of a secondary buy battle. Entry: Wait for a secondary-level pullback to stabilize and a bottom fractal signal to appear before entering; Stop loss: Place below the consolidation zone's ZD.
Chan Theory Structure:
The purple box is the core consolidation zone on the 30-minute chart, with ZG around 4.90 and ZD around 4.65. The previous high was 5.580; after a surge, it pulled back, but the pullback low did not break below the 4.545 starting point, indicating a secondary pullback in the upward process. Currently, the price has returned near the lower edge of the consolidation zone, attempting to form a secondary buy. If it breaks above and holds above ZG, this upward structure will continue; if it breaks below the 4.545 low directly, this upward trend is declared broken.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation:
The previous downward break was accompanied by a volume spike on that candlestick, indicating concentrated short-term supply release, followed by a quick recovery. The current rebound volume is weaker compared to the previous upward move, indicating a tentative repair. Subsequent upward breakthroughs require volume confirmation of demand; volume contraction during pullbacks represents gradual exhaustion of selling pressure.
Core Observation:
Focus on whether the support near 4.65 can hold. If the support holds and a secondary-level bottom divergence appears, the secondary buy is formed; if volume surges to break below the 4.545 low, this upward structure fails, and further bullish outlook should be abandoned. The upper resistance is first at the consolidation zone's ZG 4.90; only after holding above this level is there a chance to challenge the previous high of 5.58. Iran has stated that it has received the U.S. counterproposal on the ceasefire plan. I am willing to see this as evidence that negotiations are still progressing, but there is still a distance before both sides accept the same set of conditions. Receiving the document, starting to study it, and agreeing to implement it are different stages; news headlines easily compress them into one event.
What I care about this time is whether the counterproposal can specify the differences between the two sides more concretely. Previously, each side could publicly emphasize its bottom line, but once real text negotiations begin, they must answer which conditions can be changed and which steps can be taken first. Exchanging documents back and forth is more useful than shouting across the void, but it may also expose the originally vague conflicts more clearly.
Therefore, negotiations continuing and oil price risks still existing can both be true simultaneously. The energy market must also consider the consequences of the agreement breaking down; just because someone sits down to talk doesn’t mean shipping risks should be prematurely removed.
Ordinary people certainly hope for an early end; fuel price increases will eventually enter transportation costs and living bills. But hoping for peace and judging how likely the agreement is must be separated. I especially dislike the excitement of "the counterproposal has arrived, the crisis will be resolved immediately."
If both sides can provide similar interpretations of the same text next, I will be more optimistic. If only one side announces progress while the other still emphasizes that conditions are unacceptable, the market must leave room for this gap.
#伊朗收到美国反提案，美伊分歧仍在 The impact of tonight's non-farm payrolls on gold can be summed up in one sentence: employment data determines rate hike expectations, rate hike expectations determine the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which ultimately transmit to gold prices.
Transmission chain
Strong non-farm data indicates resilience in the US economy, reinforcing market expectations for continued Fed rate hikes, strengthening the US dollar and pushing US Treasury yields higher. As gold is a non-yielding asset, its opportunity cost rises, putting pressure on gold prices. Conversely, weak non-farm data cools rate hike expectations, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to fall, giving gold upward momentum.
Three scenarios
Scenario 1: Non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations (new jobs below 70,000)
Clear signals of weak employment will prompt the market to immediately lower rate hike bets, weakening the US dollar and possibly causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall from above 5.3%. Gold has a chance to rebound and test the $4200 to $4210 range.
Scenario 2: Non-farm payrolls meet expectations (80,000 to 100,000)
Market consensus is between 84,000 and 90,000 new jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. This range is already fully priced in, so gold prices will likely remain volatile with no clear direction. The probability of a rate hike in October is currently only about 25%, and data meeting expectations will not change this outlook.
Scenario 3: Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations (new jobs above 130,000)
If the data is strong above 130,000 and wages hold steady at 3.2% year-over-year, rate hike discussions will immediately restart, strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields simultaneously. Gold will likely be pushed down to below $4140 or even $4100.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 My trading plan tracking:
I continue to hold my $BTC long position with a stop loss set at 829.
As long as the 828 support is not broken, I will continue to hold until 860-880 before considering taking profits.
Reason for holding: Currently, it is still oscillating in a box range between 828-850, and it has already risen to the resistance near 850. To prevent a false breakout followed by a drop, a stop loss is definitely necessary.
Secondly, if it breaks through 852 with a surge.It feels like personal bots might not work out
There are too many meme variables
Maybe it can achieve an annualized return of over ten percent
But it also can't have big market fluctuations
However, for someone like me with small capital, it's not very useful
Those who can make money are basically a few types
Rule makers: those who issue coins, make markets, collect fees, are all the usual big fish.
The fastest: MEV, sniper, arbitrage bots. Competing on nodes, latency, and capital, their opponents are all professional big teams.
Shovel sellers: those who make tools, data, signals, tutorials, communities. They earn money from traders, not by gambling on the market.
Long-term holders: holding mainstream coins for the long term, relying on overall industry growth. This is not trading and does not guarantee results.
Can the god of trading give me some inspiration? What directions are still unexplored now?
If you want to start a project, what kind of project do you think can make money? $牛来 $OKB Within ten years, tokens could reach one hundred trillion dollars. Are you ready?
Every asset in the real world is being split into sparkling digital fragments at an astonishing speed.
On July 17, the U.S. Congress passed the "Genius Act" for stablecoins, allowing Wall Street banks to directly mint on-chain deposits; shortly after, on August 1, Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" officially came into effect, and on July 10, the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a special meeting to study stablecoins, including asset digitization, cross-border trade, and supply chain finance in their key agenda.
The U.S. anchors global liquidity with the dollar, while China fills the real financing gap with industrial assets and the digital renminbi. Both countries are translating traditional financial contracts line by line into smart contracts.
As the wave of tokens like $BTC potentially reaching one hundred trillion dollars sweeps in within ten years, the race to rewrite the global financial underlying protocols has already begun, and everyone will become a signer of this new protocol. #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 I was dumbfounded watching directly, $BTC is rallying across the board.
Originally, the short position on $AAVE was already very painful to hold, and now with BTC and $ETH surging together, AAVE has directly surged over 8 points, reaching a price of 185.8, pulling further away from my opening average price of 163.71, and the floating loss continues to expand.
I previously thought it was just altcoins moving individually, but it’s not a solo move; the entire market is pushing up together, and my watchlist is all green with gains.
This kind of broad rally is the most tormenting for shorts, with buying pressure everywhere and no sign of a pullback. With 50x leverage weighing on me, every little jump up tightens my chest.
My predictions were completely wrong; the expected pullback never came, and instead, the whole market took off. Now I’m caught in a dilemma: cutting losses means admitting a real loss, but holding on means not knowing how much further it can rise.
The market never follows the expected script. This broad rally has given shorts a harsh lesson.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 You might not be familiar with the name Leopold, but the label "Former OpenAI researcher turned AI stock trader" sounds impressive enough.
I glanced at his latest holdings; his biggest long positions are SanDisk at 28% and Micron at 27.5%. He has completely cleared his put options on Nvidia and AMD.
To put it simply, this guy isn’t betting on the AI concept itself, but on AI's "shovels" — storage and computing hardware.
I've fallen into the same trap. I used to follow big players' holdings blindly, only to find out they adjust their portfolios quarterly while I was buying high and standing by.
The key point is this: clearing puts doesn’t mean he’s bullish on Nvidia; it just means he’s not betting on it to fall. The real heavy bets are on the storage sector.
What impact does this have on the crypto world? Indirect. Once the AI narrative and computing power concepts heat up, tokens like $RNDR and $FET can ride the wave. But don’t force it.
I studied this position for a while, and my conclusion is simple: he’s betting on next year, while I, an old retail investor, can’t even predict next week. Time to sleep.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 #英伟达追加1500亿美元股票回购 $FET $BTC surged, and my short position is still holding strong 👊
BTC climbed from 83490 to 86914 today, up nearly 3%, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band at 86544. The MACD red bars are expanding, RSI6 shot up to 81.34, seriously overbought. This rally is sharp and fierce, clearly a short squeeze.
My short position is still stuck and hasn't exited. I was betting on a pullback, but it shot up like a rocket. 86914 is the high for this wave; with RSI so high, a short-term rebound could happen anytime, but the trend is already strong. Holding on further means going against the market. I cut half my position to stop loss and will see if 86000 can hold. If it doesn't, I'll close all.
On the news front, IMF approved $139 million funding to El Salvador, warming market sentiment and making it harder for shorts.
Brothers, anyone else trapped in shorts like me? Let's unite in the comments, tell me if you cut losses or are still holding?🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察 #创作者激励 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Backtesting perfect score, can we always test on the original questions?
Crypto circle fictional skit: A Yuan developed a "god-level strategy" and announced with the backtest report that he finally understood the market.
A friend asked how he did it. He said, first take a segment of historical data to test; if it loses, adjust the parameters; if it still loses, add conditions; if one day looks especially bad, then study a "special case no trading".
After tossing and turning until dawn, the report finally looked good. The rules grew from three lines to three pages, even he had to check the table of contents first.
The friend switched to a segment of data that wasn’t involved in parameter tuning, and immediately it went wrong. A Yuan was silent for a moment: "Why doesn’t this batch of data follow the answer key?"
The friend pulled him into a mock exam room and handed him a new test paper. But he skillfully took out yesterday’s answers and even asked the teacher to restore the question numbers to the original.
The teacher asked: "Are you learning to solve problems, or just memorizing answers?"
A Yuan thought for a moment and seriously requested: "Can I just take yesterday’s test paper for life?"
Backtesting is certainly useful, but repeatedly fixing the same past segment to look good may just mean memorizing noise. Data not involved in parameter tuning is the only chance to expose this familiarity.
The market issues new test papers every day, but it’s under no obligation to accommodate our perfect score screenshots.
#Crypto #Backtesting #CryptoDaily #BTC #ETH This market is really deceptive. If you don't hold on, you almost get stopped out. Luckily, it pulled back immediately. Opening in the middle is really frustrating. Taking a bite and running, I really don't dare to think big. This kind of market is not suitable for a one-sided trend.ETH is finally showing some strength.
After lagging BTC, $ETH is starting to catch up as buyers step back in and momentum improves.
The short-term structure remains constructive, but with ETF flows cooling and macro data still driving rate expectations, chasing a pump carries extra risk.
I’m watching the next pullback for confirmation before considering another move higher.
$ETH $BTC
#Crypto🔥🔥🔥$ETH Ethereum is facing a wave of negative news, be cautious of a potential crash risk⚠️ Recently, almost all the news about ETH has been bearish, making it very difficult for bulls to recover. First, MetaMask's staking infrastructure experienced a security incident, causing nearly 17,000 Ethereum validators to voluntarily exit, holding over 520,000 ETH. If private keys are leaked, they could face severe asset slashing. The market is already fragile, and this threat hangs over it, making investors hesitant to enter. Next, looking at the US stock market spot ETH ETFs, on September 30th there was a net outflow of $59.58 million, with all ten funds seeing no inflows. Institutional funds continue to withdraw, and without large capital support, a strong rebound is unlikely. Market sentiment has hit rock bottom, with social sentiment dropping to its lowest since June 7th. The entire network is filled with bearish voices, and panic is spreading. The staking exit queue has surged to 773,447 ETH, a new high this year, with many investors rushing to unstake, creating continuous selling pressure and a steady stream of tokens flooding the market. Another major signal is that Ripple's market cap has surpassed Ethereum's, putting the second position in jeopardy, as funds continue to flow out of the ETH sector and into other tracks. Multiple bearish factors are piling up; this is not a minor issue but a comprehensive pressure on funds, sentiment, fundamentals, and staking sell-offs.$SOL I've noticed that the more it rises, the more shorts there are. Shorts, don't become fuel, and everyone else, don't chase the highs. Currently, SOL is consolidating around 125, which is a resistance zone repeatedly tested earlier. The ETF is indeed buying aggressively, with a net inflow of $188 million in a single week; institutions are putting real money in. The fundamentals are solid, but good fundamentals don't mean you can make money by rushing in at this price. If 125 is truly broken and holds, it's not too late to enter then; if it breaks but falls back, those chasing the highs will be the first wave of fuel.Let me share my current trading approach with you. BTC is now at 86451.2, up 3.15%, resistance at 86888.0, support at 86000. I've lost 200,000 U and am trying to recover. My one principle now: small position trial and error, never hold a position without a stop loss. My plan: 5000 U small position, lightly go long near support at 86000, stop loss at 85900, target 86800; lightly go short near resistance at 86888.0, stop loss at 87000, target 86200. No greed, take profits and run, accept losses. What do you think of this trading approach? $BTC #The premise of a higher Gas limit is that ordinary nodes are not driven out of the network
Raising the block Gas limit allows the mainnet to accommodate more computation at the same time, but with each additional workload, nodes have to read more state, execute more instructions, and verify larger blocks. If capacity grows faster than client and hardware efficiency, the number of people who can run nodes stably will decrease, and the network may trade throughput for validation diversity. Glamsterdam places BAL, ePBS, and Gas repricing together precisely because raising the limit alone is not safe enough. For $ETH bulls, the most important concern is not how shocking the jump from 60 million to 200 million is, but whether home or mid-range nodes can keep up with the chain head under the new load. Successful scaling should simultaneously meet more transactions, more predictable costs, and still widespread independent validation. Completing only the first may improve apparent performance but weakens Ethereum's hardest-to-replicate public validation capability.
Node count, sync time, and hardware thresholds should be observed together with throughput. No matter how cheap the price is, if independent validation gradually remains only in large data centers, what $ETH loses will be harder to recover than processing a few more transactions.
If scaling can only be achieved by raising hardware thresholds, it cannot be considered a complete success. $SCR
At the top of the gainers list, there's a name followed by a small rally, surging another 40 points intraday.
Contract open interest increased by 99% in a single day, and the funding rate dropped to -0.54%.
It's all short-term funds betting inside, leaving no room for a pullback.
I don't chase such sharp rallies; I'll wait for it to pull back with reduced volume before watching again. $SCR
$SCR On October 2, 2026, the US-Iran situation escalated sharply—the attack on a UAE oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz combined with the US military deploying a third aircraft carrier and about 10,000 troops caused Brent crude futures to surge 4.37% in a single day, closing at $102.25 per barrel, strongly breaking through the $100 psychological barrier. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly soared to 5.342%, the highest level since April 2002. Bitcoin fluctuated around $83,000, with little change from the previous day, facing a short-term test of the key support at $82,500. The macro transmission chain behind oil prices breaking $100 is clear: soaring energy costs → rising inflation expectations → compressed Fed rate cut path → strengthening dollar and long-term US Treasury yields → pressure on risk asset valuations. Bitcoin currently maintains a correlation above 0.9 with tech stocks, essentially a high-beta risk asset rather than a true safe haven. Glassnode's characterization of BTC's recent rebound is spot on—it is premature and speculative, with the core issue being the lack of effective real trading volume support; the decline in capital flows and the evolution of the seller structure reveal insufficient deep market momentum. CryptoQuant data further confirms cooling signals: spot demand has decreased by about 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. While whales are accelerating accumulation, retail investors are exiting, and ETF inflows are slowing, creating a stark contrast. The core contradiction of Bitcoin currently lies in the fragmentation of its asset attributes. Binance Research points out that an oil price of $110 per barrel is the key threshold triggering a shift in the "digital gold" narrative. But 【On-Chain Trading Update｜XRP】
Monitored address 0xc30c shorted:
▪ Execution price: $1.52
▪ Transaction amount this time: $305,210.12
▪ Leverage: 10x$CORE $BTC $ETH $
If you have earned 2 million U in the crypto space, how to safely cash out to a bank card? Relatively feasible alternative paths:
Path 1: Licensed compliant exchanges + overseas bank wire transfer. By holding a Hong Kong SFC license (such as OSL, HashKey), convert USDT to HKD or USD, then transfer to a domestic personal foreign exchange account via cross-border wire transfer. The advantage is clear legal relationships and traceable fund flows, but it is subject to an annual limit of 50,000 USD, suitable for batch and long-term operations.
Path 2: Compliant OTC brokers
Choose qualified and compliant OTC brokers for large-volume sales. The fees are slightly higher but can provide complete proof of fund sources, greatly reducing the risk of bank card freezing. It is recommended to spread withdrawals into small amounts across 2-3 different bank cards and communicate with the account manager in advance about the source of funds.
Path 3: Tax planning first
Before cashing out, consult a professional tax advisor to understand the reporting methods for crypto trading income. According to the "Individual Income Tax Law," crypto trading income is usually classified as "property transfer income" or "occasional income" and must be reported according to law. Proactive reporting can avoid subsequent tax audits triggered by CRS system monitoring of foreign fund inflows.🔥 "$BTC is chilling at 86,000, $ETH is still catching up on sleep, and $SOL has already hit the gym"
Opened the market app today, and these three old friends are in completely different states——
Bitcoin $BTC is now around $86,600, up 2.5% in 24 hours, up 10.6% in 30 days, moving like that kind of "salary covers expenses, mortgage paid off, taking a walk at 3 PM" middle-aged person, so steady you want to hand it a thermos. The market keeps testing the 85,000 line repeatedly, institutions quietly accumulating underneath, retail investors shouting "charge" in groups, but the price doesn’t budge—a classic case of "the body is at the gym, but the soul is still at the desk."
What about Ethereum $ETH? At $2,738, it only moved 1.2% in 24 hours. Compared to Bitcoin, it’s like colleague A has already been promoted to supervisor, while you’re still sharing "good morning positive vibes" on your social feed. The technicals aren’t bad, all moving averages are intact, but the short-term momentum looks like it just woke up, having tried three times to break the psychological $2,800 barrier without success—very much like me on Monday mornings.
Then there’s $SOL—$122, up 2.5% in 24 hours, and a full 21.3% in 30 days, the most elastic performer among the three over the past month. While others walk slowly, it jogs; while others trade sideways, it sneaks ahead—young, aggressive, volatile; when it profits, it treats you, when it loses, it deletes the app.
In a nutshell for today’s market:
$BTC is taking care of its health, $ETH is slacking off, and $SOL is in the gym practicing core exercises in front of the mirror.VIAV closed up about 6.8% to around 44.8, CF50 can test AI inference plus LLM, NSE quarterly growth about 69%, I'm observing first without chasing.
Seen: Yesterday's close was about 44.78 (open about 42.27/high about 45.4/low about 41.27), volume about 7.26 million shares.
On September 29, launched CyberFlood CF50, up to 100G enterprise-level application, security, AI inference and large model traffic testing, TLS performance about 1.75 times that of competitors.
NSE business last quarter revenue about $353.9 million, year-on-year growth about 69.2%, data center ecosystem roughly accounts for half, 800G and 1.6T upgrades are still pushing testing demand.
Simply put: This is not the narrative of a main rise in optical modules, more like a "measuring tool on the edge of AI infrastructure," the rise is in the verification stage, not the computing power itself.
I think short-term don't chase this 7-8% gain, the new product plus quarterly report story has already been absorbed by the bullish candle, catching the falling knife is not worthwhile.
Whether testing equipment orders can continue to be fulfilled still depends on future guidance, the current price already reflects optimism.
What I do: just observe, don't chase.
If invalid, watch for a break below about 41.27 today's low to continue down, or wait for a candle to stand firm above about 45.4 before considering chasing.
Are you waiting for a pullback confirmation before acting, or do you think AI testing demand is strong enough to get on board directly?
$VIAV $ANET $NVDA
#September nonfarm payrolls announced tonight, rate hike expectations become the focus #US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure not eased